Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Monday, 11 February, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Rain in parts of the west becoming more showery, heaviest in Kerry and Cork for rest of the morning, 15-25 mm locally, otherwise patchy and rather light drizzly rain that becomes more sleety in central and eastern counties, snow on some hills in east and north. Highs will range from about 5-8 C southwest to 2-4 C east and northeast.

TONIGHT ... Partly to mostly cloudy, cold, scattered outbreaks of sleet or light snow, mostly in higher elevations, lows -2 to +3 C.

TUESDAY ... Brighter intervals for some parts of the east but cold, with isolated snow or hail streamers possible in a moderate east to northeast wind with temperatures steady about 1-4 C in north and east until late afternoon and evening when milder air present over western counties (5-8 C) may return ... cloudy with drizzle, fog or light rain in parts of west, lows near 2 C and highs near 6 C although could reach 8-9 C by evening.

WEDNESDAY ... Most likely outcome is cloud with periods of rain (5-15 mm) and somewhat milder, highs 7-9 C. Moderate S to SW winds veering westerly. There is a slight chance that this will turn into another heavy rainfall but guidance for that is considered weaker.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, a bit colder again, lows 1-3 C and highs 5-7 C.

FRIDAY ... Dry and chilly, morning frosts, lows -3 to 0 C, afternoon highs about 5-8 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The most likely trend is towards dry and rather cold weather under modified arctic high pressure, frosts each night but not staying too cold mid-day, so generally lows about -3 C and highs about 6 to 8 C.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Rain in south and southwest, sleet a bit further north, mixing with wet snow north of London, but heavier snowfall in parts of northeast, central England, south-central Scotland ... sunny and cold where not snowing and highs near 1-3 C except 3-7 C southwest.

TONIGHT ... Further snow (some accumulations 5-10 cm) and frosty, lows about -2 C on average but could reach -8 C or lower in clearing over parts of Scotland and northern England well inland.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... It is likely to remain quite cold except possibly in western Scotland mid-week. Ice fog may be persistent in some central regions. Sunshine could be fairly frequent in western regions, and wintry showers or snow most likely (after Monday's snowfall ends) in the east. Milder weather could spread back into Scotland and parts of northwest England, Wales mid-week, but the colder regime could try to hold on under a weak ridge of high pressure in the southeast.


Forecasts for North America

Milder with rain over the heavy snow pack of the northeast, some melting will take place although it won't lead to severe flooding as highs of 8-10 C and brief duration will not melt enough snow, but some urban "ponding" could cause problems and roof collapses may occur especially where roofs are flat and not sloped ... this milder weather will end in the Midwest and central plains states where it will turn a bit colder again with highs near 5 C. Persistent rain and isolated severe storms in the southeast U.S., GA-SC and nFL most likely to see severe storms today. Rather bland patterns over the west with rain developing gradually near the coast.

My local weather on Sunday was pleasant and sunny with highs near 8 C.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Wednesday, 13 February, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Cloudy with periods of rain (a further 5-15 mm in all regions, with the heavier amounts in north) and milder, highs 8-11 C. Moderate S to SW winds 40-70 km/hr veering westerly by evening. Some spot flooding is possible in parts of Connacht, Ulster, north Leinster.

TONIGHT ... A few more showers with a sharp cold front, winds veering to westerly 50-80 km/hr then turning colder, lows by morning about 2-4 C.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, showers and somewhat colder again, highs about 5-7 C. Winds subsiding to west-northwest 30-50 km/hr.

FRIDAY ... Dry and chilly, morning frosts, lows -3 to 0 C, cloudy with sunny intervals for most, light rain possible in southwest, afternoon highs about 7 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Rather mild in west this weekend, highs 10-12 C possible, with partly cloudy to overcast skies. Not quite as mild in eastern counties due to southeast winds, highs 7-9 C. Foggy at night inland, could stay dry although rain will threaten from southwest at times.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... During next week, the first day or two should continue rather mild especially for western counties, but there may be an outbreak of colder weather from the east, according to the European model, and this could be the coldest weather since mid-January and possibly colder. Confidence on this is about 60%, other models are not totally in agreement although most show colder temperatures after about Tuesday 19th.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Cloudy with rain, possibly starting as or mixing with wet snow in southeast England. Highs generally 7-9 C but closer to 4 C in southeast. Some freezing rain is possible for a time around Cambridge, Luton before milder air mixes fully down to lower levels. Foggy with the onset of rain.

TONIGHT ... Rain to showers, temperatures about 5-8 C falling off to 2-4 C in some western regions before morning.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The somewhat milder spell will fade on Thursday back to slightly colder weather, and higher pressure will bring a spell of cold, foggy conditions for southern and eastern England, somewhat milder in southwest England, Wales and western Scotland. This spell will trend towards more widespread cold and fog through the weekend and could eventually lead to much colder weather in about a week. Milder air that might make it fairly easily into western Ireland will only get into parts of western Scotland, otherwise colder air is likely to remain more in control over much of Britain, and when colder air still arrives from the east, snow could develop again in southeast England. It remains to be seen whether this will spread much further to the west at that time (in about a week).


Forecasts for North America

Heavy rain tapering off to showers in parts of the southeast, and as moisture spreads north, it may turn to wet snow for Washington DC, parts of New Jersey and Delaware, Maryland then later Long Island. A rain-snow mix is likely in larger cities due to urban heat island effects. This rather minor event will not spread much further north than the coast and it will remain largely dry and seasonable in the Great Lakes and Midwest, trending to somewhat milder than normal in the south central states. A weak push of colder air from the Canadian prairies will seep into the northern plains states dropping temperatures a few degrees below freezing, but milder air is now moving inland from the Pacific coast and even at high latitudes around the southern Yukon and NWT, temperatures will be approaching 3-5 C.

My local weather on Tuesday was partly cloudy with highs near 7 C.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Friday, 15 February, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy west, cloudy with sunny intervals east, light rain or drizzle will edge onto west coast later this morning and then make some further progress east by evening, amounts only 1-3 mm, afternoon highs about 7-9 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with a few clear intervals, rather cold inland east and north, fog patches, drizzle ending. Lows 3-6 C on average.

SATURDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, quite mild in western counties, highs about 11-13 C, closer to 9-10 C east. There may be a few outbreaks of drizzle but generally it should be a dry day with light southerly winds (trending to southeast near east coast).

SUNDAY ... Cloudy with some sunny intervals, a bit cooler as winds back to southeast 20-40 km/hr, mostly dry but some outbreaks of drizzle possible near coasts. Morning lows -1 to +3 C and highs 7-11 C.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... At this point, the consensus is cloudy, possible rain at times south and west, winds SE 30-50 km/hr, and temperatures fairly steady in the range 6-8 C although possibly milder in southwest.

WEDNESDAY to SUNDAY 24th ... This period is indicated to be colder than normal, in east to southeast winds. The depth of cold air may be rather shallow and temperatures may fall only slightly in the west and south, but somewhat further towards 2-4 C in the east and north. This may bring a risk of mixed wintry precipitation at times in those regions. Some models are hinting at a colder, snowy outcome during the period, but there's not enough consensus on that to rate it as the most likely outcome.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, mostly dry with a few outbreaks of drizzle near coasts, colder again with highs generally 4-7 C. Some parts of northern Scotland will have more frequent showers and will be milder (9 C).

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Higher pressure will bring a spell of cold, foggy conditions for southern and eastern England, somewhat milder in southwest England, Wales and western Scotland. This spell will trend towards more widespread cold and fog through the weekend and could eventually lead to much colder weather developing in stages Monday through Wednesday; snow could develop again in southeast England around Tuesday and following days. It remains to be seen whether this will spread much further to the west at that time; also, the coldest air may then shift a bit further north to bring higher risks of snow in Yorkshire and northeast England, eastern Scotland.


Forecasts for North America

Weather patterns are changing rather slowly, rain continues to dissipate to scattered showers in the southeast but an area of thunderstorms will develop in Florida. Sunny and a bit warmer today in the south central states (22-25 C) and cloudy, mild further north. Milder air is also pushing across the Rockies into the prairies and any light snow will end with above freezing temperatures and a chinook warming event. Quite warm in the southwestern states.

The northeast remains mostly cloudy and near normal in temperature, but the weekend brings the risk of another fairly substantial snowfall event especially for eastern New England and the inland parts of the Canadian Maritime provinces, amounts could be 20-30 cm or even more. New York City would be on the western edge of this snowfall and might see anywhere from 2 to 10 cm in gusty north to northwest winds by Sunday.

My local weather on Thursday was overcast with drizzle, and highs near 8 C.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Sunday, 17 February, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

The forecast guidance continues to show a prolonged cold and dry spell with slight potential for localized snowfalls in the south. If any details of this set-up change then the potential for snow could change more than the other variables. This might turn out to be rather pleasant weather in parts of the north which could be in sunny and almost calm conditions, and as many are saying on weather chat threads, the trade-off of temperature for sunshine is welcome at this point. However, we continue to watch this very closely, because there is still some chance of snow becoming more prominent in the forecast. And of course, this is all still four or five days away, with a gradual cooling trend between now and then.

SUNDAY ... Cloudy with some sunny intervals, a bit cooler as winds back to southeast 20-40 km/hr, mostly dry but some outbreaks of drizzle or light rain possible near west coast with highs 7-11 C.

TONIGHT ... Somewhat colder than previous nights and a few clear intervals with mist or fog developing, lows 2-6 C.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... Overcast for most, a few brighter intervals in east and north, possible light rain at times south and west, winds SE 30-50 km/hr, and temperatures fairly steady in the range 6-8 C although possibly milder in southwest. Overnight lows 2-4 C and possibly slight frosts returning to central and inland eastern counties.

WEDNESDAY to SUNDAY 24th ... There may be little change on Wednesday especially in the west, but Thursday and Friday should see considerably colder weather with sharp frosts at night, lows to -5 C and highs around 2-4 C. There will be a mixture of cloud and sunshine and some passing wintry showers on moderate easterly winds are possible although it looks like a dry pattern in general. By the weekend of 23-24 Feb, the current guidance would suggest cold and dry weather with moderate east winds in the south, trending to light southeast or calm further north. Temperatures would likely remain about the same (range near -5 to 3 C) but it could get a bit milder in sheltered parts of the north during the day under the bright and warming late February sun. This picture is not necessarily carved in stone, there could be a lot more cloud if the gradient tightens and some snow showers would then be possible, or rain and sleet in west Munster if the models have overdone the strength of the cold push to any extent. These details remain uncertain, but we can be fairly confident that temperatures will average at least 3-5 degrees below normal.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Rather misty or foggy away from the south coast which will likely be partly cloudy to overcast, or western Scotland where it should be more overcast with some drizzle at times. Highs for most regions will be 4-7 C, but it could stay colder in a few spots due to a general lack of mixing down of any milder air above inversions, whereas some coastal locations could be milder with a breeze from the warmer surrounding waters (about 8-10 C). Overnight lows could fall to -3 C with dense freezing fog in parts of the Midlands and south central counties.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... This gradual cooling of a stagnant air mass could eventually lead to much colder weather developing in stages Monday through Wednesday; snow could develop again in southeast England around Tuesday night or Wednesday and on several of the following days. It remains to be seen whether this will spread much further to the west at that time; also, the coldest air may then shift a bit further north to bring higher risks of snow in Yorkshire and northeast England, eastern Scotland, but the greatest chance for snow is likely to be in the London region and along the south coast especially west of the Isle of Wight. The chances of a severe cold spell with significant snowfall is probably about 60-80 per cent for eastern England now, and 50 per cent for regions further west and north although more like 30 per cent for western Scotland. The guidance now available from most global models would suggest 15-30 cm snow potential in parts of the south and east, as well as overnight lows further inland near -7 C and possibly lower if snow cover develops there first before clearing sets in.


Forecasts for North America

An intense storm will develop mid-day and hit eastern Canada and nearby eastern Maine with 20-40 cm of snow and very strong NNE winds; this snow will change to freezing rain and rain east of Halifax NS in veering winds to south then southwest, and Newfoundland will only see a bit of snow before a heavy rain arrives on very strong southeast winds. The rest of New England could see a brief period of moderate snow overnight and early morning then cloudy, windy and colder weather with light snow at times. That will generally be the trend all day further west except for some locally heavy lake effect snow squalls, with temperatures near -5 C (normals are now closer to +4 C).

Much milder just to the west of the Great Lakes across most of the central states, with a rain to snow mix over the far northern plains states and eastern prairies. Mild and dry on the west coast and sunny, warm in the inland southwest with cloud and stronger winds near the California coast, some showers developing.

My local weather on Saturday was very pleasant for a change, sunny with nearby shower clouds over the mountains, and mild. Highs reached 12-14 C.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Tuesday, 19 February, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ADVANCE ALERT for moderately severe cold Thursday to about Tuesday, more prolonged in the inland south and east, and the slight risk of coastal snow in east and south around the weekend. Details in forecasts.

TODAY ... Cloud will persist in south and west, clear to partly cloudy skies in east and north once any mist or fog dissipates, winds may be calm in most inland locations at first, then will increase later to SE 30-60 km/hr with highs 5-7 C for most, 7-9 C west Munster.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy intervals, breezy, cold except in far southwest. There may be a few traces of sleet with a weak front arriving late in the night in eastern counties. Lows -1 to +3 C (except 4-6 C in west Munster).

WEDNESDAY ... Extensive cloud is likely with a few passing sleety showers near south coast, but largely dry and turning colder in brisk E-SE winds with highs 4-6 C.

THURSDAY ... Cold and breezy with a slight risk of snow showers near east and south coasts, sunny for most although some cloudy intervals especially south, west ... morning lows -2 to +3 C, highs 4-7 C.

FRIDAY ... Very cold and breezy with risk of isolated snow showers, mainly near south and east coast, partly sunny after any morning ice fog dissipates ... morning lows -5 to -2 C and afternoon highs -1 to +3 C for most, probably a bit milder in southwest and possibly Donegal-Derry (4-6 C).

SATURDAY ... Very cold with risk of some snow at times in east, and near south coast, some sunshine inland, morning lows -7 to -3 C, afternoon highs about -1 to +3 C for most, 4-6 C in southwest and some far northern counties.

SUNDAY ... More sunshine and less cloud, still very cold ... morning lows around -7 to -3 C, afternoon highs near 2 to 5 C. Northern counties may actually be milder than elsewhere, as the east winds will abate somewhat across the south and nearly calm conditions prevail in the north.

OUTLOOK ... The most likely scenario is that the cold high will hang around for days slowly modifying to almost seasonable (by then early March) temperatures and then a second cold spell may begin from a more northerly origin. That one may then break down with stormy weather and a return to rain after some snow or sleet, so use the dry spell to your advantage.


Forecasts for Britain

ALERT for severe cold and locally heavy snowfalls, the cold almost everywhere in Britain except possibly northern Scotland, and the snow most likely in Kent, Essex, greater London, Surrey and then also in south to southwest coastal regions, possibly also east Midlands and Yorkshire.

TODAY will remain moderately cold after the deep chill this morning fades, with highs generally 5-7 C although lingering fog might keep it closer to 2-4 C in some inland southeastern locations.

TONIGHT will be cold again although cloud spreading in from east may actually raise temperatures for a while, lows about -4 C on average.

WEDNESDAY will bring cloud, an interval of light rain turning to sleet and then snow, and colder east winds reaching about a Sheffield to Oxford line by evening. The changes will be more subtle further north under partly cloudy skies. Highest temperatures in west about 6-8 C, in east 4-6 C steady then falling to 2-3 C. Winds becoming E 40-70 km/hr in southeast, some accumulating snows near and east of London by evening.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY will be partly cloudy to sunny for most, very cold, with locally heavy snow at times in southeast England and frigid temperatures generally near -8 C overnight and -2 C daytime, possibly a bit above freezing near coasts. Wind chills near -15 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Heavy snow possible in southeast (15-30 cm), light snow further west and north except heavy snow or sleet in Cornwall-Devon. Some wintry sunshine in Wales, northwest England, Scotland. Very cold with lows in -11 to -7 C range, highs -3 to +1 C (near 5 C in western Scotland and the Isles).

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Slow moderation of the severe cold ending sooner in north-central regions and later in southeast especially over persistent snow cover. Highs will come slowly back up towards 5 C by mid-week. Overnight lows could remain very cold as skies will be clear at times.


Forecasts for North America

An active cold front (mainly non-severe) is rapidly moving east towards the Atlantic coast and should arrive there by afternoon (evening in Boston). Rain will become heavy in strong southerly winds, there may be brief thunder and then a colder westerly wind tonight. Highs 10-15 C anywhere ahead of the front, then temperatures falling to near 5 C and eventually a bit below freezing with sleet or wet snow showers followed by clearing that has already set in west of a Chicago to St Louis to Little Rock line. This air mass is not particularly cold and will bring highs near 8-10 C to the plains states. Meanwhile, a frontal wave near Houston TX is going to spread heavy rains east across the Gulf states and hold the cold front up for a day before it goes through Atlanta or Birmingham AL.

A somewhat colder northwest flow is pushing south across snow-covered west-central Canada, as the snowstorm there moves off towards Lake Superior and northern Ontario (15-30 cm will fall). Blowing snow in the eastern prairies has been causing road closures overnight. Much milder in the far west, however.

My local weather on Monday was mostly cloudy with light rain at times, and chilly highs of 5-7 C.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Thursday, 21 February, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for moderately severe cold from tonight to about Tuesday, more prolonged in the inland south and east, and the risk of snow in east and south around the weekend. Details in forecasts.

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy and cold with brisk SE winds 40-70 km/hr and a slight risk of brief sleet or snow showers near east and south coasts, partly cloudy to sunny inland north but some longer cloudy intervals southeast, central and west ... highs about 4-7 C, mildest in southwest.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with a few clear intervals, brisk SE winds 30-60 km/hr, and colder with lows -5 to -2 C in most regions, +1 to +4 C in west Munster. There could be brief snow showers in a few locations near the south and southeast coasts.

FRIDAY ... Very cold with brisk SE backing to E winds 35-60 km/hr with risk of isolated snow showers, mainly near south and east coast, further west some sunny intervals may develop after any morning ice fog dissipates ... morning temperatures of -5 to -2 C will be slow to moderate, and afternoon highs -1 to +3 C for most could feel closer to -4 C, although probably a bit milder in southwest and possibly Donegal-Derry (4-6 C).

SATURDAY ... Very cold with risk of some snow at times in east, and near south coast (amounts potentially 2-4 cm), some sunshine inland mainly west and north of Laois, morning lows -7 to -3 C, afternoon highs about -1 to +3 C for most, 4-6 C in southwest and some far northern counties. Winds rather slack in north but E-NE 20-40 km/hr across central and southern counties. Slight risk of heavier snow developing near Dublin, Wicklow as very cold air drains out from Wales and crosses the Irish Sea.

SUNDAY ... A little more sunshine and less cloud, still very cold ... morning lows around -8 to -4 C, afternoon highs near 2 to 5 C. Some continuing risk of localized snowfalls near east coast in moderate NE winds at times, also some risk of lingering ice fog inland. There could also be pockets of somewhat milder weather in the northwest, particularly Donegal and Derry, with highs about 4-7 C and possibly more sunshine than elsewhere.

OUTLOOK ... The most likely scenario is that the cold high will hang around for days slowly modifying to almost seasonable (by then early March) temperatures with the moderation more notable in the north at first, nights remaining quite cold, and then a second cold spell may begin from a more northerly origin about 2-3 March. Expect some wintry showers when that colder spell begins, a cold, dry spell to follow, then that may break down with stormy weather and a return to rain after some snow or sleet, so use the dry spell to your advantage.


Forecasts for Britain

ALERT for severe cold and locally heavy snowfalls, the cold almost everywhere in Britain except possibly northern Scotland, and the snow most likely in Kent, Essex, greater London, Surrey and then also in south to southwest coastal regions, possibly also east Midlands and Yorkshire.

TODAY, TONIGHT and FRIDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy for most, and very cold, with locally heavy snow at times in southeast England and frigid temperatures generally near -2 to +2 C today, -8 C overnight and then near or below -2 C daytime on Friday, although possibly a bit above freezing near east and southwest coasts. Wind chills near -15 C. Kent and parts of greater London could see about 10-15 cm snow in some places and 2-5 cm more widespread. Northern Scotland will not be quite as cold, highs near 4-6 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Heavy snow possible in southeast (15-30 cm), light snow further west and north except heavy snow or sleet in Cornwall-Devon. Some wintry sunshine in Wales, northwest England, Scotland. Very cold with lows in -11 to -7 C range, highs -3 to +1 C (near 5 C in western Scotland and the Isles). Snow may become sleety or mix with rain at times by Sunday night into Monday morning as somewhat milder air enters the circulation from the southeast, briefly. This may only persist a few hours before sleet changes back to snow.

Note: The snowfall in the London region is likely to affect Gatwick Airport more than Heathrow, but there could be some disruptions to travel in eastern England and locally in the southwest and east-central counties at times between tonight and Monday.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Slow moderation of the severe cold ending sooner in north-central regions and later in southeast especially over persistent snow cover. Highs will come slowly back up towards 5 C by mid-week. Overnight lows could remain very cold (-9 to -5 C) as skies will be clear at times and there could be remnant snow cover. The mildest part of the U.K. will be northern Scotland for most of the next week or two. The cold spell (or settled spell for Scotland) will break down gradually around 2-3 March with wintry showers developing in advance of a strong northerly outbreak that may last a few days with further snow possible.


Forecasts for North America

A significant storm is moving into the plains states overnight and later today. Warmer across Texas with rain and thunderstorms spreading north, freezing rain in parts of Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kansas and Missouri, heavy snow further north spreading towards Chicago and the Midwest. Rather cool and cloudy with isolated showers across Georgia and the Carolinas, but warm and humid in south-central Florida where some heavy thunderstorms could develop later.

The northeast states will be dry and cold with isolated snow showers, and the Midwest, Ohio valley will start out cool and dry with mixed wintry precipitation later and Friday. Mild and dry in parts of the inland southeast, with severe storms developing overnight and Friday.

Rain at times on the west coast and mountain snows spreading further inland and merging over Utah-Colorado with the plains low. Some heavy snowfalls are likely around Denver.

Meanwhile, my local weather on Wednesday was overcast with rain, heavy at times in the morning, drizzly later, and cool -- highs only 5-6 C so that hail and snow were reported at elevations not much above 150m.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Saturday, 23 February, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for slippery or icy roads and local snow, freezing drizzle in the Dublin and Wicklow region from early morning, possibly extending to a few other places in eastern and southern counties later. .

TODAY ... Very cold with outbreaks of snow mixed with freezing drizzle at times in east, possibly extending later to parts of south coast (amounts at somewhat higher elevations potentially 2-4 cm but the icy road conditions will be the larger issue), some sunshine developing further inland mainly west and north of Laois, afternoon highs about zero to +3 C for most, 4-6 C in southwest and some far northern counties. Winds rather slack in north but E-NE 20-40 km/hr in central counties, and 25-45 km/hr across southern counties.

TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy but some clear spots developing, very cold, some roads becoming icy ... lows -3 to -7 C.

SUNDAY ... A little more sunshine and less cloud, still very cold ... morning cold may be slow to moderate, afternoon highs near 2 to 5 C. Less risk of localized snowfalls near east coast but one or two flurries possible, also some risk of lingering ice fog inland. There could also be pockets of somewhat milder weather in the northwest, particularly Donegal and Derry, with highs about 4-7 C and possibly more sunshine than elsewhere. The cold spell will moderate first in the coastal northwest.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy, continuing quite cold although moderating somewhat in the north. Morning lows -5 to -2 C and afternoon highs 3-6 C on average. Winds light and variable.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy to sunny, a bit milder in most places, after another cold night ... lows -5 to -2 C and afternoon highs 5 to 8 C. Winds westerly in northern regions, 20-40 km/hr.

OUTLOOK ... The most likely scenario is that the cold high will hang around for days slowly modifying to almost seasonable (by then about Friday 1st of March) temperatures (7-9 C) with the moderation more notable in the north at first, nights remaining quite cold (-5 to -2 C), and then a second cold spell may begin from a more northerly origin about 2-3 March. Expect some heavy wintry showers around 2-3 March when that colder spell begins on strong NW winds, then a cold, dry anticyclonic spell to follow, and then that may break down with stormy weather and a return to rain after some snow or sleet (this all around 8-10 March), so use the dry spells to your advantage, as I foresee the second half of March becoming rather wet.


Forecasts for Britain

ALERT for severe cold and locally heavy snowfalls 10-20 cm or more, the cold almost everywhere in Britain except possibly northern Scotland, and the heavier snow most likely in Kent, Essex, greater London, Surrey and then also in south to southwest coastal regions, possibly also in a few parts of the east Midlands and Yorkshire ... there will also be more widespread light snowfalls in the 1-3 cm range.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Heavy snow possible in southeast (10-20 cm), light snow further west and north except heavy snow or sleet in south coast of Cornwall-Devon. Some wintry sunshine in Wales, northwest England, Scotland. Highs today about -2 to +3 C, very cold tonight with lows in the -8 to -3 C range, highs Sunday -3 to +2 C (near 5 C in western Scotland and the Isles). Snow may become sleety or mix with rain at times by Sunday night into Monday morning as somewhat milder air enters the circulation from the southeast, briefly. This may only persist a few hours before sleet changes back to snow.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Slow moderation of the severe cold ending sooner in north-central regions and later in southeast especially over persistent snow cover. Highs will come slowly back up towards 5 C by mid-week. Overnight lows could remain very cold (-9 to -5 C) as skies will be clear at times and there could be remnant snow cover. The mildest part of the U.K. will be northern Scotland for most of the next week or two. The cold spell (or settled spell for Scotland) will break down by weekend of 2-3 March with wintry showers developing in advance of a strong northwesterly to northerly outbreak that may last a few days with further snow possible.


Forecasts for North America

The Midwest storm is decaying into areas of light snow today as it pushes slowly into the Great Lakes region. Rain moving northeast from the Gulf coast and Tennessee valleys will begin to turn to sleet and snow over higher parts of West Virginia, Pennsylvania tonight. This will turn into a moderate snowstorm for the northeast on Sunday (amounts 5-10 cm).

Near normal temperatures in the southern plains and moderating across the chilly inland southwest under mostly sunny skies at first, with showers to follow. Rain or snow across most of the northwest states and British Columbia.

My local weather on Friday was cloudy with periods of rain (heavy at times in the morning) and highs near 7 C.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Monday, 25 February, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for slippery or icy roads in many inland parts of the country (patchy in nature because the air mass is rather dry, but could be locally severe, so take care on the roads) ... these conditions will return each night for the foreseeable future and will persist into the morning until 0930h or later in some shaded areas ... but the situation should gradually moderate over the next week.

Astronomy note: The Moon will be full when it rises this evening, reaching full stage at 8:27 p.m. today.

TODAY ... Partly to mostly sunny, continuing quite cold although moderating somewhat in the north and southwest. Morning temperatures of -5 to -2 C may be slow to moderate in some areas, and afternoon highs will reach 3-6 C on average but could feel more like 7-10 C in the sun as winds will be light and variable with a slight easterly flow ... only a very slight risk of further isolated mixed wintry showers in east.

TONIGHT ... Another clear, cold night for most, ice fog possible and some icy roads developing, lows inland -6 to -3 C, closer to -2 to +2 C in large urban centres and outer coasts.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy to sunny, a bit milder in most places, after another cold night ... lows -5 to -2 C and afternoon highs 5 to 8 C. Winds westerly in northern regions, 20-40 km/hr.

OUTLOOK ... The most likely scenario is that the cold high will hang around for days slowly modifying to almost seasonable (by then about Friday 1st of March) temperatures (7-9 C) with the moderation more notable in the north at first, nights remaining quite cold (-5 to -2 C) ... meanwhile, the once-discussed cold northerly for next week is still a slight risk although it appears more likely that this northerly will be too slow to overcome a breakdown from the southwest as the high stagnates and weakens through next weekend. So, it may stay dry and a bit milder into early March, followed by a period of cool and wet weather with moderate southeast to east winds ... highs would most likely be in the 6-8 C range and frost would dissipate under the cloud, but the rain that seems inevitable could be sleety.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Cloudy with some sunny intervals, milder than recent days in the east where sleet or even light rain is possible at times, highs 3-5 C. Continued rather cold in the south and west, highs 1-3 C, isolated flurries.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, as cloud and sleety showers move further west before largely dying out. Lows -3 to +2 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Slow moderation of the cold spell, ending sooner in north-central regions and later in southeast especially over persistent snow cover. Highs will come slowly back up towards 5 C by mid-week. Overnight lows could remain very cold (-9 to -5 C) where skies clear. Same comments as in the Ireland forecast would apply to the longer range, although Scotland stands a somewhat greater chance of seeing at least a brief and moderate version of the northerly next week (but it may just hang up over Iceland and dissipate there).


Forecasts for North America

Another rather strong storm system forming over Texas tonight will bring heavy rainfalls and developing severe storms to the Gulf coast region later today. Highs will reach 22-25 C near the Gulf, but much colder air will push east to reach the south central states further north by evening. That will be felt earlier in the day in most of central-western Texas with sunshine, strong W to NW winds developing and highs of only 8-10 C. The desert southwest will start clear and frosty but should warm up somewhat compared to yesterday's chilly readings. The northern plains and parts of the Rockies will see outbreaks of snow, meanwhile, the east coast will now start to see milder weather as the Texas storm slows down and turns more to the northeast tonight, bringing rain as far north as Chicago and Detroit towards Toronto by tomorrow morning. That rain will push into the northeast states on Tuesday and could be heavy at times, and temperatures that are close to normal today (7-10 C) will push a little higher towards 10-13 C on Tuesday.

My local weather on Sunday was overcast with rain and fog, highs 6-8 C, and snow above 400m that was quite heavy in the alpine apparently.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Wednesday, 27 February, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, winds light and variable (easterly 10-20 km/hr in south) ... some coastal drizzle may develop, but generally dry with highs about 6-9 C, mildest inland north.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with patchy light drizzle, mist ... lows 3-5 C.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy with a few brighter intervals, relatively mild with highs about 8 to 10 C.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy, some sunny intervals developing, morning lows 2-4 C and highs 9 to 11 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Just a little colder as the winds turn more to the southeast, chance of some patchy drizzle and highs about 8 C, overnight lows may be back slightly below freezing in a few locations.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Eventually the Atlantic circulation will return and it may not be very mild at that point either, so a sleety or even wintry mix is possible although it seems more likely to be mostly rain in the south and west (by the end of next week), as southeast to east winds become stronger, reaching perhaps 50-70 km/hr with temperatures in the 5-8 C range -- raw but not that unusual.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy with some sunny intervals further west and north, overcast in most central and eastern districts, where isolated light outbreaks of sleet or rain are possible at times, highs 6-9 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, some light sleet or drizzle in places, fog or ice fog in some valleys, and lows -3 to +2 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Friday will be somewhat milder but cloudy with highs near 9 or 10 C, then a colder turn is expected as winds back to northeast with drizzle near east coast. Nights will become frosty again, and eventually a sleety mix or wet snow could develop in some central and northern regions, cold rain in south, towards the end of next week, in moderate E-SE winds. It will probably become milder in stages around mid-March. Scotland stands a somewhat greater chance of seeing at least a brief and moderate version of the once threatened northerly next week (but it may just as likely hang up over Iceland and dissipate there as the high seems to have no way of escaping in any direction now).


Forecasts for North America

The plains states blizzard is now transferring most of its energy to a weaker system that crawled up the east coast on Tuesday with heavy rainfalls in some parts, and this may give it a second life over northern New England as a rain-snow mix in the lower Great Lakes runs into even colder air banked up over Quebec. Upstate NY and Vermont, eastern Ontario and southern Quebec could see 15-30 cm of snow, with lesser amounts around Albany to Boston and sleet or cold rain in NYC and Long Island. Further west the remnants of the blizzard will slowly dissipate but there's perhaps 3-5 cm of wet snow left in that system yet and it won't clear until Thursday in Chicago, even then, cold northerly winds could set off lake effect snow. Further west, there is not much happening as a weak ridge of high pressure is stalled waiting for all these messy weather systems to move, and then an arctic high is dropping south into the central plains to hold things up for a few more days, so the west coast will remain under cloudy skies and light rain at times while the inland southwest is dry and rather chilly by their standards but without the strong winds of the past weekend.

My local weather on Tuesday was a non-descript cloudy and drizzly sort of winter's last gasp that was not nearly as interesting as an aerial battle between crows, seagulls and a lone eagle (really) that seemed to be mainly about ownership of a bag of garbage that had fallen off a truck into the street. It was about 8 C as I watched this unfolding. Eventually the truck driver returned to collect his mess and the birds all disappeared except for the crows who plague this entire region in huge numbers. You're welcome, Tourist Board.

Yesterday's forecast appeared twice and I'm really not sure how -- we'll try for just one appearance today.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Thursday, 28 February, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Cloudy with a few brighter intervals, relatively mild with highs about 8 to 10 C. Some lingering fog or mist should dissipate around 10:30 or so. Winds from a northeast to southeast direction for most of the south, light and variable in the north.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals but extensive low cloud and mist or fog, lows about 2-4 C on average, possibly a bit colder where clouds are absent.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy, some sunny intervals developing, morning lows 2-4 C and highs 9 to 11 C. Winds light and variable.

SATURDAY ... Cloudy with a few brighter intervals, patchy light rain or drizzle developing near south coast, morning lows 0-2 C and afternoon highs 7-9 C.

SUNDAY ... Mostly cloudy, morning lows -1 to +1 C and afternoon highs about 7-9 C again, winds becoming somewhat stronger from the southeast.

MONDAY ... Cloudy, drizzle or fog and mist in south, slightly milder with east winds 15-30 km/hr, lows 2-5 C and highs 7-11 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Eventually the Atlantic circulation will return and it may not be very mild at that point either, so a sleety or even wintry mix is possible although it seems more likely to be mostly rain in the south and west (by the end of next week), as southeast to east winds become stronger, reaching perhaps 50-70 km/hr with temperatures in the 5-8 C range -- raw but not that unusual. There are signs of another cold spell beyond the weekend of 9-10 March, but it's too far off to have much confidence about it yet.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy with some sunny intervals further west and north, overcast in most central and eastern districts, highs 6-9 C. Some patchy ice fog this morning may be slow to dissipate in parts of the west Midlands and Severn valley.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, fog or ice fog in some valleys, cloudy in east and south, and lows -3 to +2 C except 3-5 C under cloud in south.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Friday will be somewhat milder but cloudy with highs near 9 or 10 C, then a colder turn is expected as winds back to northeast with drizzle near east coast. Nights will become frosty again, and eventually a sleety mix or wet snow could develop in some central and northern regions, cold rain in south, towards the end of next week, in moderate E-SE winds. It will probably become milder in stages around mid-March. Scotland stands a somewhat greater chance of seeing at least a brief and moderate version of the once threatened northerly next week (but it may just as likely hang up over Iceland and dissipate there as the high seems to have no way of escaping in any direction now).


Forecasts for North America

Northern New England, southern Quebec and eastern Ontario will continue to see heavy wet snow reaching depths of 20-40 cm across the region, but southern New England will have a cold rain with some sleety mixture on hills, while further west the remnants of the old storm will be fragmenting into areas of light sleet or wet snow as far west as Chicago. Further west there will be sunshine and relatively mild conditions, but to the north of the decaying storm a new push of arctic air from a strong high in Canada's eastern arctic will spread -10 C temperatures southward into the northern Great Lakes region and -20 C in the northeast prairies. Somewhat milder towards the Rockies, then very mild and wet on the west coast as a system known locally as the "Pineapple Express" brings heavy rain and mild temperatures from a subtropical air mass that started out near Hawaii. This rain will not hit much further south than Portland Oregon so it will be warm and dry in the southwest states.

My local weather was about the same as the previous day, absent the dramatic aerial battles.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Saturday, 2 March, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Early risers beware of black ice that may have formed in some parts of the inland east, central and south ... this should dissipate before too long but then mostly cloudy skies, with just a few brighter intervals, and even some patchy light rain or drizzle developing near south and east coast but only slight accumulations less than 1 mm, could make the day feel colder than the actual temperature which will reach afternoon highs of 7-11 C (milder readings likely to be in west and northwest).

TONIGHT ... Another partly cloudy to clear night with local frost, lows in the range of -3 to +2 C for most, and fog or mist developing towards midnight in many central districts, perhaps becoming rather thick before dawn. Drive with caution.

SUNDAY ... Mostly cloudy, morning lows -1 to +1 C and afternoon highs about 7-9 C again, winds becoming somewhat stronger from the southeast at 20-40 km/hr by afternoon and evening.

MONDAY ... Cloudy, drizzle or fog and mist in south, slightly milder with east winds 25-40 km/hr, lows 2-5 C and highs 7-11 C.

TUESDAY ... Rain arriving in south, winds increasing to ESE 30-50 km/hr, foggy at times with highs about 8-10 C.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY ... This is likely to be a wet spell with moderately strong southeast to south winds at times, temperatures steady in the range of about 8-10 C. Some rainfalls of 20-40 mm could occur breaking the rather lengthy dry interval, but these may be heavier in the south and east. Winds may reach speeds of 60 to 90 km/hr with one part of this complex disturbance around mid-week, from a southerly to southwesterly direction.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Various hints of colder weather seem to have come and gone from the model runs for the time being and once this wet spell runs its course late next week, the next regime is likely to be another near-normal easterly flow.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Cloudy with a few brighter intervals in the north, some patchy drizzle in the south, east winds of 20-40 km/hr ... feeling quite cold near east coast but rather nondescript weather in general, highs 8-10 C.


FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Dry and slightly colder than normal for several days until about Monday or Tuesday (north) then cloudy with rain and increasing southeast winds, sleet possible over higher terrain at times ... highs generally near 8-10 C most days for the next week or so, but could be as high as 14 C by late next week in the south.

Forecasts for North America

Most of eastern regions will be colder than normal in a moderate northerly flow, with outbreaks of light snow near the southern shores of the Great Lakes but also a fair amount of sunshine, highs -2 to +3 C. This colder air mass will push south to cover the Gulf coast where it will be only about 10-13 C. Milder further west, especially desert southwest regions north towards Idaho which will all be quite warm in southerly winds ahead of a frontal system bringing heavy rain to the coast and some distance inland. Freezing levels will be very high and even the mountain passes will see rain and a thaw, leading to rapid snow melt in elevations between the alpine and the lower extent of the current snow pack (about 500m but rising rapidly as the snow pours down creeks as meltwater). Risk of widespread avalanches and slides in mountain areas and flooding in coastal valleys.

My local weather on Friday was a non-stop deluge that dropped over 100 mm of rain in a constant downpour, accompanied by thick fog and very mild temperatures of about 13-14 C. I don't live in a flood-prone area as such but the roads and sidewalks all have large ponding issues and you could drown in the roadspray if you aren't careful. Impacts are a lot worse in the mountains, but down near sea level we are fortunate that this heavy rain came after such a dry winter because the ground is able to soak in quite a bit, which might not be the case most years if this happened at the end of the winter season.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Sunday, 3 March, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ADVANCE ALERTS ... Some heavy rainfalls may develop mid-week, 20-40 mm potential in west and south ... also, we're tracking a possible return to wintry weather the following week (10th to 15th) as most model guidance indicates a very cold easterly flow developing once the rainfall event begins to lose energy next weekend. We're in a "wait and see" situation with this but the model consensus is strong this morning.

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, afternoon highs about 7-9 C, winds becoming somewhat stronger from the southeast at 20-40 km/hr by afternoon and evening. Patchy drizzle near south coast.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with mist or fog, drizzle near south coast, lows 2-4 C.

MONDAY ... Cloudy, drizzle or fog and mist in south, slightly milder with east winds 25-40 km/hr, lows 2-5 C and highs 7-11 C.

TUESDAY ... Rain arriving in south, winds increasing to ESE 30-50 km/hr, foggy at times with highs about 8-10 C.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY ... This is likely to be a wet spell with moderately strong southeast to south winds at times, temperatures steady in the range of about 8-10 C. Some rainfalls of 20-40 mm could occur breaking the rather lengthy dry interval, but these may be heavier in the south and east. Winds may reach speeds of 60 to 90 km/hr with one part of this complex disturbance around mid-week, from a southerly to southwesterly direction.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The model consensus has swung back to colder weather arriving around Sunday 10th and lasting about a week. This outbreak looks quite wintry on the current guidance so winter may not be finished with Ireland yet, but we're at a time interval where this scenario could disappear before it makes it into "reliable time" which is more like 4-5 days for an easterly ... after the season we've had, I think the spoiler could be a last-minute weakening of the cold push and enough lingering influence from the milder air masses to make this a cool rather than cold spell. However, all possibilities are in play including more severe cold and even snow depending on which guidance verifies.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... About the same as yesterday, so we can repeat this one ... cloudy with a few brighter intervals in the north, some patchy drizzle in the south, east winds of 20-40 km/hr ... feeling quite cold near east coast but rather nondescript weather in general, some longer sunny intervals in northern England and western Scotland, highs 8-10 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Dry and slightly colder than normal for several days until about Monday or Tuesday (north) then cloudy with rain and increasing southeast winds, sleet possible over higher terrain at times ... highs generally near 8-10 C most days for the next week or so, but could be as high as 14 C by late next week in the south. After that, the colder easterly spell discussed above could be rushing into the region bringing temperatures down to or below freezing, by about Sunday-Monday 10th-11th.

Forecasts for North America

Snow will be heavy at times in Alberta and northern Montana as the west coast dries out from recent heavy rains. Very warm air is being drawn north by this storm and will cover most of the southwest, south central and central plains states with temperatures soaring to 20-25 C or higher. The Midwest, Great Lakes, mid-Atlantic states and even the southeast are in a much cooler air mass that has its source in Canada's eastern arctic (and that is also feeding the Greenland high developing during the week). This air mass is not moving because the storm from last week that dropped heavy snow in the Great Lakes and New England is now stalled south of Newfoundland and a mild easterly flow is pushing into Quebec then mixing with the colder, drier arctic air around Ontario and New York state, giving them a lot of cloud and slightly colder than average temperatures with drizzle or snow grains. That gradually turns more to partly cloudy weather in the western Great Lakes and towards the Virginia-North Carolina region as the air mass slowly modifies in the strong March sunshine. Florida is in the same air mass but it's about 15 to 18 C there.

My local weather continued rather wet in the morning then some clearing developed late in the day and temperatures have been gradually falling from a morning high near 12 C to current 3-5 C readings.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Monday, 4 March, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ADVANCE ALERTS ...The most recent guidance has somewhat downgraded both of these potentials, but we'll keep them around until a more definitive answer is available. ... Some heavy rainfalls may develop mid-week, 20-40 mm potential in west and south ... also, we're tracking a possible return to wintry weather the following week (10th to 15th) as model guidance indicates a very cold easterly flow lurking dangerously close to the remnants of the low pressure after the rainfall event begins to lose energy next weekend. We're in a "wait and see" situation with this and the most likely outcome for the cold would be below normal but above freezing with cold rain or sleet and only a slight risk of snow, but this could still change.

TODAY ... Cloudy, drizzle or fog and mist in south, slightly milder with east to southeast winds 25-40 km/hr, lows 2-5 C and highs 7-11 C, mildest in west Munster and coastal Connacht.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with a few clear intervals, fog or mist developing, drizzle in south by morning, lows about 3-5 C.

TUESDAY ... Rain arriving in south, winds increasing to ESE 30-50 km/hr, foggy at times with highs about 8-10 C.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY ... This is likely to be a wet spell with moderately strong southeast to south winds at times, temperatures steady in the range of about 8-10 C. Some rainfalls of 20-40 mm could occur breaking the rather lengthy dry interval, but these may be heavier in the south and east. Winds may reach speeds of 60 to 90 km/hr with one part of this complex disturbance around mid-week, from a southerly to southwesterly direction.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... After yesterday's strong flirtation with colder weather arriving around Sunday 10th and lasting about a week, the current guidance is more indecisive with colder air seeping into the remnants of the forthcoming wet spell around next weekend. This outbreak now looks less wintry on the current guidance but winter may not be finished with Ireland yet, although as I said yesterday, we're at a time interval where this scenario could disappear before it makes it into "reliable time" which is more like 4-5 days for an easterly ... after the season we've had, I think the spoiler could be a last-minute weakening of the cold push and enough lingering influence from the milder air masses to make this a cool rather than cold spell. However, all possibilities are in play including more severe cold and even snow depending on which guidance verifies. If the current model runs are taken at face value, the conditions by Sunday-Monday would be cold with sleet or light rain and highs 4-6 C. There could be snow on higher hills in the north. That's how close the wintry potential is at this stage.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Cloudy with moderate southeast winds, highs about 8-10 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, drizzle or fog developing, lows 3-5 C.

TUES-WED ... Outbreaks of light rain in southwest, gradually spreading further north, but remaining largely dry in east and north until Wednesday afternoon or evening.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Cloudy with rain and increasing southeast winds, sleet possible over higher terrain at times ... highs generally near 8-10 C most days for the next week or so, but could be as high as 14 C by late next week in the south. After that, the colder easterly spell discussed above could be pushing into the region bringing temperatures down to about 5 C in the south and 2-4 C north, with some nights below freezing, by about Sunday-Monday 10th-11th. Northern and eastern Scotland could see snow and northern England and southeast Scotland could see mixed wintry precip or sleet.


Forecasts for North America

Snow is spreading southeast from Alberta and eastern Montana across parts of SK, ND, SD and eventually will reach the Midwest by later today. This storm will slow down, develop a second centre that will take over the circulation, and drop heavy amounts of snow around Chicago in the next few days. By mid-week it will be heading for the New Jersey coast and spreading sleet or snow into parts of the northeast states but for today those regions remain largely dry if rather cloudy. The southeast will be partly cloudy and chilly (8-12 C to about 19 C in south Florida). The south central, southwest and central plains states will remain in a mild to warm air mass that is gradually clouding up with outbreaks of rain likely by tonight in parts of Texas but heavier rain will develop a bit further east towards the Mississippi valley on Tuesday. That will eventually move across the southeast mid-week.

My local weather was sunny and near 8 C on Sunday, with a cold breeze but otherwise quite pleasant after the heavy rainfalls. The winter was so dry that the ground has already soaked most of that moisture in, but the water table looks fully replenished now. Hills around here are snow-covered above 800m but have lost their lower snow cover in the rainstorm.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Wednesday, 6 March, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ADVANCE ALERT for the risk of significant cold spell with possible snow mainly for the east coast and northern counties, starting on the weekend and lasting to mid-week. Confidence is about 70% at this time, since the models seem to be locking into this solution -- and a storm coming out of the eastern U.S. is clearly about to dive southeast under the blocking pattern ... the main question now is whether the cold will be severe or just "nuisance" variety and that may vary from region to region.

TODAY ... Variable cloud, showers mainly central to northwestern counties, moderate E-SE winds 30-60 km/hr, highs near 10 or 11 C but could reach 13 in west Munster. Rainfalls 5-10 mm.

THURSDAY ... Periods of rain, mild, moderate SE winds. Lows 5-8 C and highs about 11-12 C, with 10-15 mm rain.

FRIDAY ... Showers, mild, becoming foggy as winds back more to east, rain or drizzle at times, lows near 6 C and highs 9-11 C.

SATURDAY ... Cloudy, turning a bit colder, some showers with fog or drizzle in east, a few brighter intervals for west, lows near 4 C and highs near 7 C. Moderate east winds feeling raw, 30-50 km/hr with higher gusts.

SUNDAY ... The guidance continues to indicate cold and unsettled conditions with risk of snow or sleet developing later in the day, with a cold rain quite likely to start, especially at lower elevations of south and east. Moderate to strong east winds may develop (50-70 km/hr). Temperatures most likely steady 4-6 C then falling to about 2 C, but it could be even colder in the east by evening.

OUTLOOK ... Monday and Tuesday could see a return to wintry weather and some outbreaks of snow or sleet, as stated in the advance alert, this now has about a 70% confidence level from model consensus. As usual, the greater chance of wintry precipitation would likely be in the east and north. There are now indications of this cold spell reloading later in the week after a very slight rise in temperatures mid-week (leading to mixed wintry showers rather than snow in east, and hail or rain showers in west and south for a time). The current maps support the idea of accumulating snow in the Dublin region on Monday as upper temperatures and atmospheric "thickness" parameters are on the favourable side of marginal for a change. We will be keeping a close eye on this, of course, and speculating about amounts or intensity closer to the time (some heavy snow would be possible, too early to say what locations are most favoured except that it would no doubt be close to Dublin and Wicklow).

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Partly cloudy, relatively mild, moderate SE winds and some outbreaks of showery rain ... highs 11-13 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, fog patches, showers and rather mild, lows 4-7 C.

OUTLOOK ... From Thursday on, the forecast would be very similar to Ireland except that by Sunday there is a more definite chance of snow in eastern England and much of Scotland in a very cold northeast flow. Temperatures there could fall below freezing and there could be some heavy snowfalls. The cold spell would be somewhat less severe in Wales and the southwest with more sunshine during the days. Highs about 1-4 C in this cold spell and some overnight lows to -5 C. Little warming is foreseen during the week although a weak system could bring temperatures up very slightly mid-week and that could change the regional distribution of rain, hail and snow before a re-set of the colder conditions.

Forecasts for North America

Snow, sleet and coastal rain are likely in the eastern states today, and some heavy snowfalls of 20-40 cm could develop just to the west and north of Washington DC where it may mix with sleet. The outlook is somewhat tricky for New England as the storm is heading due east from the Delaware coast later today and only its outer 3-5 cm snow bands might reach most of New England, 5-15 cm in Long Island, southeast MA and perhaps Boston and NYC. Meanwhile, cold and dry over the fresh snow (15-25 cm fell on Tuesday) around Chicago and also over bare ground in Michigan and Ontario (some leftover snow from weeks ago but nothing much on Tuesday there).

The southeast states will be clearing and a bit cooler than normal although the wind will be the main factor (NW 50-80 km/hr in most places). Warmer in the south central states as very warm air from Mexico and the southwest U.S. streams in ahead of a frontal system that may bring rain or mountain snow to the Great Basin region (that's basically NV/UT, s ID and e OR). A weak front hitting the west coast is bringing rather light rain and moderate SE winds. Then heading further east, it's clear and very cold across most of inland western Canada.

My local weather on Tuesday was cloudy with light rain developing, only about 2 or 3 mm so far. Highs are near normal at 9 C.

UPDATE _ Thursday 7 March 2013 _ 1930h
_______________________________________

There has been a slight upgrade in the model consensus for the potential of significant snowfalls Sunday night and Monday and the chances are probably at least 70% for accumulations (in the range of 5-15 cm mainly) over large parts of Ulster and Leinster, accompanied by gusty northeast winds in the range of 50-80 km/hr and bitterly cold temperatures falling to about -1 C.

This could even produce blizzards in some areas, including Meath, Dublin and Wicklow.

The chances for the south coast are also fairly high and part of the potential there would be interaction between the cold air mass and the low off to the south, but also the activity from Leinster could spill over into parts of Munster as the winds will be strong enough to advect the snow possibly as far as Limerick to Cork, more definitely as far as Tipps and Waterford.

The northwest is also included in the snow-watch as wind directions there will be fairly close to an ideal NNE by later Monday especially, so in fact the only regions less likely to see snow would probably be around Galway Bay and Kerry-coastal Clare. And these areas could see passing snow showers by Tuesday as winds come around to a more favourable (for them) NW direction.

The rest of the week then looks more settled and continuing rather cold although the days will warm up somewhat under the strong March sun to values around 5-7 C. The following weekend still looks cold and wet with the potential for rain to turn to snow as a reinforcement of arctic air begins to develop during the passage of the storm system currently affecting New England but centered well off to the south (almost due north of Bermuda now). That situation is far from settled at this stage and if the colder air "digs in" during the week to come, that storm might have a hard time lifting enough warm air to change the temperature enough to prevent another snowfall, but in the meantime, I have growing confidence in the outlook for a near-blizzard situation developing Sunday night and persisting through most of Monday, with the focus of heaviest snow likely to shift south during the day although it may begin with two separate events in east Ulster and south coast then begin to merge the two, so those details are yet to be totally worked out.

We should stress the volatile nature of the situation as much colder air will be rushing into the region and this is a more explosive pattern than anything seen earlier in the recent winter season. There could be thunder with some of the hail and snow during the transition later Sunday and a continuing potential for thunder-snow in streamers on Monday. However, there will likely be breaks between bursts of snow and even some bright sunshine at times on Monday. Travel may become difficult in Leinster and Ulster as well as some parts of the south. The impacts will likely be less severe in the west but it will become bitterly cold everywhere -- even the normally temperate outer coasts of Kerry could see a bit of snow from this.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Saturday, 9 March, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for bitterly cold weather late Sunday to mid-day Tuesday, and outbreaks of snow mostly in Leinster, east Ulster and near south coast.

TODAY ... Cloudy, turning a bit colder especially in north, some showers or light rain, with fog or drizzle in east, a few brighter intervals for west, and highs near 7 in north, 10-12 C in south. Moderate east winds in the north and feeling raw by afternoon or evening, 30-50 km/hr with higher gusts developing late in the day.

TONIGHT ... Much colder in Ulster with sleet turning to snow at times, a coating possible on hills by morning ... cold rain or sleet in Leinster and Connacht turning to snow on hills ... rain at times in south, mild at first but turning quite cold by morning ... winds E-NE 40-70 km/hr in all regions, lows about -1 to +1 C except 4-6 C near south coast.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, some sleety outbreaks of light rain in south, sleet turning to wet snow in north, with risk of accumulating snow later in the day (mainly for east Ulster at this stage), accompanied by raw, moderate to strong east winds (50-70 km/hr). Temperatures steady no higher than 3-5 C then falling to about 1 C, but it could be even colder in the north and east by evening. Heavy snow could develop across the south by evening in near-blizzard conditions with NE winds increasing to 55-90 km/hr (rain on outer south coast turning to snow also). The first appearance of Irish Sea streamers may be during Sunday evening although most of them will not arrive until the morning hours.

SUNDAY NIGHT ... Bitterly cold with strong northeast winds 50-80 km/hr and some higher gusts near Irish Sea, outbreaks of snow and blowing snow may develop in parts of east Ulster, Leinster and some flurries may reach further west into Connacht and east to central Munster. A blizzard-like snowstorm is still possible across the south, although it may dissipate before having the chance to merge by Monday morning with Leinster snow streamers. Outbreaks of moderate or heavy snow also in parts of east Ulster. Amounts variable but potential for 10-20 cm in a few spots and 5-10 cm more widely. Temperatures falling to -1 C and wind chills -7 to -15 C.

MONDAY ... Windy and bitterly cold with further snow in Leinster and east to north Ulster mostly, becoming more dominated by streamers as the south coast snow may pull away to the east-southeast, but details may change closer to event ... some of the streamers could become very heavy with local bursts of 5-10 cm snowfalls and isolated 15-30 cm falls with thunder-snow, also some hail showers embedded. Some wintry sunshine at times mainly in the west, but passing snow flurries even there. Highs about +1 C but feeling like -6 to -15 C in the strong winds. If snow accumulates, blowing and drifting will follow and could lead to some travel problems and even road closures. Two areas that may see heavier snow appear to be Dublin-Meath and coastal Wicklow to east Wexford.

Chances of snow are about 80% for east Ulster and Leinster, 70% for south coast and Donegal, 50% for north Mayo (mainly by Monday night and Tuesday morning there), and 30% for midwest, 10-20% for Atlantic coasts. Most likely amounts peak at about 10-30 cm higher parts of Dublin and Wicklow, 5-15 cm Dublin-Meath and east Ulster as well as coastal Wicklow, and 3-7 cm further inland and inland south. Confidence on these amounts is moderate in this volatile situation, with an unusually cold regime in the lower reaches of the atmosphere for any time of year, regardless of calendar date, combined with strong winds and nearby "synoptic scale" snowfall in the mix.

Meanwhile, Monday temperatures may fall as low as -2 C and recover only slightly during the day to about 1-3 C, despite any sun that manages to break through. The change will be abrupt and could lead to icy road conditions especially where snow falls.

MONDAY NIGHT ... General clearing and very cold, some remnant snow squalls or flurries dying out near east coast but developing in some parts of Connacht and north Ulster as winds back to N 30-50 km/hr. Some severe frosts inland with lows -7 to -4 C except a bit milder (near -2 C) where winds blow in from the sea. Icy roads can be expected especially where snow had fallen earlier.

TUESDAY ... Sunny intervals south, partly to mostly cloudy north with isolated snow 2-4 cm, some mixed wintry showers developing in coastal Connacht and west Munster by afternoon, cold or very cold with highs 2-5 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, cold, mixed wintry showers in a brisk northerly wind, morning lows -3 to +1 C and afternoon highs 4-7 C.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy, slightly milder especially in west, showers developing but these could be sleety at first across east and inland south, lows near -1 C and highs near 7 C.

NEXT FRIDAY to SUNDAY ... The model consensus shows potential for heavy rainfall and strong winds and also a return to colder conditions by later Sunday as one frontal wave from the west brings in mild air then the remnants of the current Atlantic storm south of Nova Scotia arrive via the Azores and perhaps on a track right across the country, dragging down another dose of rather cold, unstable air, so while Friday and perhaps Saturday should see 8-11 C highs, Sunday may turn colder in stages and produce mixed precipitation by evening in temperatures near 2-4 C. This scenario is of course an early estimate and this could change in either direction as we get further into the week.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY and TONIGHT ... Turning colder in stages from north to south, brisk east winds and rain or drizzle (heavier in southeast) becoming showery and then sleety especially in Midlands and Wales, with a burst of heavier snow developing in eastern Scotland by Saturday evening. This snow will spread further south during the night. Winds east to northeast 50-80 km/hr. Highs near 4 C north and about 7-9 C south, but temperatures falling rapidly by late in the day.

SUNDAY-MONDAY ... Windy and bitterly cold with outbreaks of heavy snow likely in east, some wintry sun in west, temperatures not far from -2 C night and day but somewhat milder readings close to North Sea. Winds E-NE about 50-80 km/hr although 30-50 km/hr inland south. The southwest may be hit by a severe wind storm Sunday night and Monday (ESE 60-120 km/hr) with blizzards on higher ground in Devon and Somerset, mixed wintry precip closer to sea level. This will spread east on Monday bringing possible snowstorm or blizzard conditions to most of southern England, parts of eastern England, and all or most of northern France too. Temperatures will be about zero C except 3-5 C coastal southwest where severe wave action may cause damage to seawalls (in south Devon and Cornwall). Dry and cold in parts of north Wales, northwest England, western Scotland with some sunshine both days although mostly cloudy with passing hail showers turning to snow flurries. Winds generally ENE 50-90 km/hr across central and northern Britain, feeling very cold in the wind (wind chill values near -10 C developing).

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Very cold, some additional snow in various regions as winds become more northerly but variable at times, mostly dry but some outbreaks of heavy snow possible near Irish Sea and North Sea where northerly winds hit land (north Wales, Somerset-Devon, east Anglia, Kent). Lows in the range -7 to -2 C, highs -1 to +5 C. The milder end of week scenario becomes less certain for southeast England which could remain in colder air longer, and a return to cold on Sunday 17th might take place faster in Scotland than further south.

Forecasts for North America

The long-duration snow event in New England is finally over and only a few traces of snow are likely in coastal Nova Scotia as the storm pulls well away into the central Atlantic. Dry and cold for most eastern regions, trending to mild and dry Midwest and south central, increasing cloud with rain to follow in some parts of the central plains and wet snow on higher elevations of western and northern plains states (that will drop about 5-8 cm in western Iowa and Minnesota late tonight and Sunday). Dry and mild on west coast.

My local weather on Friday was sunny with cloudy intervals, and a high of 11C.

I will re-assess the snowfall situation after the 12z model runs and post updates as necessary ... keeping a close eye on the approaching low just in case it swerves off the model track closer to the south coast, because that would probably lead to heavier snow arriving on Sunday. Not seeing any obvious signs of that but it could spin off an unexpected spiral band.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Monday, 11 March, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for bitterly cold weather persisting well into Tuesday, with icy roads especially where snow has fallen recently ... outbreaks of snow mostly in Leinster, east Ulster and near south coast. Details in forecasts.

Astronomy note: New moon occurs later today at 7:52 p.m.

Discussion (snowfall) -- Overnight we have seen gradual development of two main streamer bands coming inland near Louth and Meath, and a weaker third one to the south of Dublin. There have been hints of a fourth streamer trying to set up across Waterford and the south coast. Reports have been received of 2-3 cm snowfalls so far in Meath and that streamer extends almost as far as Galway before breaking up. Currently rather light snowfall rates could increase during the day with increased convection, and all the streamer bands are likely to shift southward as winds slowly change from ENE to NE and eventually NNE. The alert situation is therefore (in somewhat more detail) a watch for moderate snowfall in most of Leinster and an alert to likely heavier snow by mid-day and afternoon most likely to be in regions north and south of Dublin. The Wicklow and eventually Wexford coasts may be most favoured by the combination of timing and intensity. The situation for Dublin is more uncertain but there is a moderate chance of snowfall becoming heavier when the band currently north of the city begins to shift south. Any of these streamers could develop a burst of heavy thunder-snow and this would create poor visibility locally. At the same time, spaces between the streamers will remain largely dry with a few light flurries and some brief sunny breaks, so expect a wide variety of conditions, especially if you are travelling any distance.

TODAY ... Windy and bitterly cold with further snow in Leinster and east to north Ulster mostly, becoming more dominated by streamers as any south coast snow pulls away to the east-southeast ... see the discussion above for estimates of timing and amounts, in general, 3-7 cm could fall in quite a few places in Leinster and 10-20 cm are possible especially in Wicklow later today. During the mid-day and afternoon, thunder-snow, also some hail showers could be embedded in snow streamers. Some wintry sunshine at times mainly in the west, but passing snow flurries even there. Highs about +1 C but feeling like -6 to -15 C in the strong winds. (ENE 40-70 km/hr with some gusts to 90 km/hr near coasts). Where snow accumulates, blowing and drifting will follow and could lead to some travel problems. The combination of blowing snow at ground level and bright sunshine can be especially hazardous, it is recommended to drive with headlights on so that oncoming traffic can see you in the glare.

Snowfall amounts and rates could be highly variable from place to place as streamers can be narrow, concentrated bands of moderate or heavy snow. The change to sub-freezing temperatures will be quite abrupt and could lead to icy road conditions especially where snow falls.

TONIGHT ... General clearing and very cold, some remnant snow squalls or flurries dying out near east coast but developing in some parts of Connacht and north Ulster as winds back to N 30-50 km/hr. Some severe frosts inland with lows -7 to -4 C except a bit milder (near -2 C) where winds blow in from the sea. Icy roads can be expected especially where snow had fallen earlier.

TUESDAY ... Sunny intervals south, partly to mostly cloudy north with isolated snow 2-4 cm, some mixed wintry showers developing in coastal Connacht and west Munster by afternoon, also a continuing risk of wintry showers near the east coast (although most of these may remain off the coast by then) ... cold or very cold with highs 2-5 C. Winds NNW 30-50 km/hr adding a chill, feeling like -5 C especially out of the sun.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, cold, mixed wintry showers in a brisk northerly wind, morning lows -3 to +1 C and afternoon highs 4-7 C. The west could see more frequent rain showers than wintry showers as temperatures will tend to rise slightly each day.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy, slightly milder especially in west, rain showers developing but these could be sleety or wintry at first across east and inland south, lows near -1 C and highs near 7 C.

The following is the most likely outcome for the following weekend, although even colder solutions are "on the table" in some model depictions.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy, periods of rain, milder, moderate south to southwest winds, highs near 10 C.

SATURDAY ... Windy, showers, highs near 11 C at least early and in the south and east ... there are some indications of a colder regime spreading south to cover the west and north in mixed wintry showers and highs 4-7 C.

SUNDAY (17th ) ... Showers may remain wintry in north and west as colder air continues to push further south and east, winds turning more northerly to northeasterly in most regions. Highs 7-9 C early in the day for southeast otherwise 3-6 C, temperatures likely falling further.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... Unsettled, cold ... mixed wintry showers likely. Highs no better than 5-8 C. Some risk of snow developing in north.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Windy and bitterly cold with outbreaks of heavy snow likely in east, some wintry sunshine at times in west, temperatures falling to about -2 C by mid-day except 0-2 C in south coastal counties ... winds from the east to northeast about 50-80 km/hr although 30-50 km/hr inland south. The southwest has seen very strong east winds and some light snow, with the risk of heavier snow later when winds back into the north. This may eventually bring blizzards to higher parts of Devon and Somerset, mixed wintry precip closer to sea level. The Channel storm will spread east on Monday bringing possible snowstorm or blizzard conditions (10-30 cm snow possible) to most of south central and south eastern England, and all or most of northern France too. In this storm zone, temperatures will be about zero C except 3-5 C coastal southwest where severe wave action may cause damage to seawalls (in south Devon and Cornwall). Dry and cold in parts of north Wales, northwest England, western Scotland with some sunshine while central regions mostly cloudy with passing snow flurries. Winds generally ENE 50-90 km/hr across central and northern Britain, feeling very cold in the wind (wind chill values near -10 C developing). Some heavier snowfalls in east Scotland, northeast England, Yorkshire, east Midlands, and the Thames estuary region from North Sea streamers. Amounts variable, some heavy falls possible in a few places (10-15 cm).

TONIGHT ... Snow continuing in parts of the southeast and in Devon-Somerset, spreading to north Wales at times from Irish Sea, clear and very cold in most other places, some record low temperatures near -10 C possible, widely below -6 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Very cold, some additional snow in various regions as winds become more northerly but variable at times, mostly dry but some outbreaks of heavy snow possible near Irish Sea and North Sea where northerly winds hit land (north Wales, Somerset-Devon, east Anglia, Kent). Lows in the range -7 to -2 C, highs -1 to +5 C. The milder end of week scenario becomes less certain for southeast England which could remain in colder air longer, and a return to cold on Sunday 17th might take place faster in Scotland than further south.

Forecasts for North America

Mild on the east coast and in the lower Great Lakes region, rain and turning colder in the Midwest and Mississippi valley, rain turning to wet snow in some parts of the northern Midwest, as snow spreads across the northern Great Lakes and becomes heavy in northern Ontario. Milder in most of the Canadian prairies and northern plains as Pacific air streams across the Rockies to replace the arctic air which is gradually losing its grip on central regions. Dry and warm in the south central and southwest states, cloudy with outbreaks of light rain or drizzle near the coast north of California, and mountain snowfalls generally rather light.

My local weather on Sunday was cloudy with drizzle and light rain, chilly with highs about 7 C.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Wednesday, 13 March, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for scattered instances of black ice especially where snow fell recently and more widely in central counties, this morning and tomorrow morning lasting until perhaps 0930h or so.

TODAY ... Partly cloudy, still rather cold, with a few mixed wintry showers in a moderate northerly wind 25-45 km/hr, highs 5-8 C. The west will see more frequent rain showers than wintry showers, East Ulster especially higher portions would be more likely to see snow showers, but also the trend is generally rather dry as showers will only cover 10-20 per cent of the country at peak times later today, amounts generally trace to 2 mm equivalent.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with a few breaks, and it could once again become frosty in some inland counties, with lows generally -2 to +3 C. Some light wintry showers may develop later and become heavier towards morning, bringing some snow cover to high ground and sleet at lower elevations, mainly in Connacht and Ulster.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy, slightly milder especially in west, rain showers developing but these could be sleety or wintry at first across east and inland south, and highs near 7 C as winds back into a westerly direction at 30-50 km/hr. Temperatures may be improving slightly but this is likely to feel raw and chilly for time of year.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy, periods of rain, milder for at least the first part of the day with moderate south to southwest winds, highs near 10 C. Temperatures may fall back slightly by afternoon or evening in northern counties and rain could become sleety there. The milder air will be pushed out to the southeast by evening.

SATURDAY ... Windy, showers, highs 6 to 9 C at least early and in the south and east ... a colder regime will then develop to cover the west and north in mixed wintry showers and highs 4-7 C. There could be some heavy hail showers with thunder during the transition mid-day.

SUNDAY (17th ) ... There may be some breaks in the overcast especially for the south and west, but it will remain somewhat unstable ... showers may remain wintry in north as colder air continues to push further south, winds turning more northerly to northeasterly in most regions. Highs 7-9 C in the southeast but otherwise 3-6 C, temperatures falling even lower by evening. There are some indications of snow on hills in the north, sleet or hail at lower elevations, and cold rain near sea level, Sunday night into Monday.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... Unsettled, cold ... mixed wintry showers likely, some snow is possible at times. Highs no better than 5-8 C. East to northeast winds 30-50 km/hr with stronger gusts near Irish Sea. I'm expecting another round of streamers but this time the dynamics are marginal for snow and so a real mixed bag of precipitation types can be expected, elevation may be more important than region.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The improvements may come first in terms of sunshine and dry weather before any real warming trend, but the only thing working in favour of a warm spell is the increasing sun angle -- at least the sun is going to feel warmer each week even if the air remains cold. I have a hunch that it will get a lot warmer just as the month ends (in time for Easter). There's only so much retrogression we can have before the air originates in the deserts of central Asia and not the snowfields of Europe. (On that subject, -12 C over fresh snow under clearing skies north of Paris this morning).

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny breaks, cold, mixed wintry showers in a few places, most likely near Irish Sea in moderate N-NW winds 30-50 km/hr. Highs about 4-7 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, frosty in places, isolated snow flurries. Lows near -2 C on average.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Warming will be faint in Britain, even compared to Ireland, as the weak push of milder air from the northwest fails to push beyond the western coasts. Although the most severe cold will moderate, temperatures will remain near 3-5 C by day and below freezing at night to around -4 C. There will be fairly frequent mixed wintry showers mostly snow over inland regions from western Scotland south on Wednesday, a somewhat drying trend on Thursday, then widespread sleet or wet snow on Friday. The weekend looks cold and wet, although much milder air could rush north from central France to reach the southeast briefly as deep low pressure forms near the Bristol Channel region. Wales and Scotland could see some heavy snow on hills next weekend, lower down, it's likely to be a mixed bag of all types of precipitation. A cold, dry period should eventually follow as higher pressure develops over the region.


Forecasts for North America

A rather quiet interval now as a weak frontal system heads into eastern Canada and rain ends later today in the eastern states followed by clearing and cooler but not excessively cold weather with a slight frost tonight and highs tomorrow 7-10 C.

Large areas of the central states will be dry and mild, while rain moves inland on the west coast, and a weak chinook warming pattern replaces low cloud and light snow or freezing drizzle in parts of western Canada.

My local weather on Tuesday was cloudy with occasional rain, not overly heavy but persistent, and highs near 9 C.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Thursday, 14 March, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for scattered instances of black ice this morning lasting until perhaps 0930h or so. ADVANCE ALERT for hail, sleet and even some snow (the latter most likely on hills in north) over the period late Friday to mid-week ... very cold for mid-March

THURSDAY ... Cloudy, slightly milder especially in west, rain showers developing but these could be sleety or wintry at first across east and inland south, and highs near 7 C as winds back into a westerly direction at 30-50 km/hr. Temperatures may be improving slightly but it's likely to feel raw and chilly for time of year especially once the rain or sleet begins.

TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy, showers or periods of rain, temperatures steady in the range 4-6 C.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy, periods of rain, milder for at least the first part of the day with moderate south to southwest winds, highs near 10 C. Temperatures may fall back slightly by afternoon or evening in northern counties and rain could become sleety there. The milder air will be pushed out to the southeast by evening. If any sunshine develops in east, expect hail showers with thunder to break out within hours (the air will be unstable and the freezing level only 1200m).

SATURDAY ... Windy, showers, highs 6 to 9 C at least early and in the south and east ... a colder regime will then develop to cover the west and north in mixed wintry showers and highs 4-7 C. There could be some heavy hail showers with thunder during the transition mid-day.

SUNDAY (17th ) ... There may be some breaks in the overcast especially for the south and west, but it will remain quiet unstable ... showers may remain wintry in north as colder air continues to push further south, winds turning more northerly to northeasterly in most regions. Highs 7-9 C in the southeast but otherwise 3-6 C, temperatures falling even lower by evening. Expect snow on hills in the north, sleet or hail at lower elevations, and cold rain near sea level, Sunday night into Monday. The pattern remains very marginal for snow at low elevations on most models but small changes would bring it into play as a colder easterly flow will be as close as Scotland and the north coast of Ulster by the end of the weekend. If it got any further south then sleet could easily turn to snow in some fairly low elevations at least across the northern half of Ireland. But at the moment I think hail might be the main story.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... Unsettled, cold ... mixed wintry showers likely, some snow is possible at times. Highs no better than 5-8 C. East to northeast winds 30-50 km/hr with stronger gusts near Irish Sea. I'm expecting another round of streamers but this time the dynamics are marginal for snow and so a real mixed bag of precipitation types can be expected, elevation may be more important than region.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The swirling complex of low pressure may actually move far enough west, eventually, to allow somewhat warmer air to move north mid to late week and this could at least bring a warmer variety of wet weather, and then a drying trend as the low pressure fills and higher pressure of more continental than arctic origin sets in. With any sort of luck, the pattern could even reverse to a warm southerly flow before Easter. I'm expecting that sort of change because it has been quite some time (end of January) since we saw really above normal temperatures, other than the rather minor event last week.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Sunny and cold to start in most of England and Wales, cloudy with mixed showers further north, some patchy ice fog dissipating .... by afternoon, frequent mixed wintry showers, snow showers more prevalent in east especially above 150m, rain more likely in west and southwest. Highs will range from near 8 C in west to about 3 C in east.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, sleet or wintry showers, cold. Lows 1-3 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The general outcome will be about the same as in Ireland, if somewhat warmer in the southeast over the weekend. Widespread cold rain, hail, sleet or even snow showers can be expected with a trend towards accumulating snow in Scotland and higher parts of Wales, north-central England, with the coldest part of the period Sunday-Tuesday.


Forecasts for North America

Most of the west will be warmer than average and except for the Pacific northwest and B.C., dry. Heavy rain moving inland on the west coast may amount to 100 mm in places. A weaker disturbance moving through the Canadian prairies will bring 1-3 cm snowfalls and then begin to drift southeast tonight taking that snow into the upper Midwest by tomorrow morning. A rather cold and dry pattern prevails further east in association with a weak arctic high near Lake Superior. Temperatures are 3 to 5 degrees below normal in most of the eastern U.S. and eastern Canada.

My local weather has been dominated by the heavy rainfall event that started mid-day and continues to put down 5-10 mm an hour tonight with no signs of a let up soon. It is a bit warmer now, 11 C.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Saturday, 16 March, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for widespread icy or slippery roads both this morning (to about 10:00h) and overnight into Sunday morning. Also, ALERT for widespread hail or snow showers the next several days and a slight risk of heavy accumulations of snow in northern and central (inland) counties mid-week.

TODAY ... A very cold start with icy roads in many locations, the morning will bring some sunny intervals in Leinster and sleety rain (snow on higher hills) will be moving east across Munster and then south Leinster, but otherwise widespread hail or snow/rain mixed showers spreading east during the day, highs could reach 6 to 9 C at least in the south and east but a colder regime will then develop to cover the west and north with the advance of mixed wintry showers and highs 4-7 C. There could be some heavy hail showers with thunder during the transition mid-day.

TONIGHT ... Mixed wintry showers will continue, if any clearing develops temperatures will rapidly fall below freezing, lows -4 to 0 C. Widespread icy or slippery roads are likely. Some heavier falls of sleet or snow are possible in higher elevations of the north.

SUNDAY -- St. Patrick's Day ... After another somewhat frosty night with partial clearing and continuing wintry showers in places, it will remain quite unstable ... showers may remain wintry in north as colder air continues to push further south, winds turning more northerly to northeasterly in most regions. Highs 6-8 C in the southeast but otherwise 3-6 C, temperatures falling even lower by evening. Expect snow on hills in the north, sleet or hail at lower elevations, and cold rain near sea level, Sunday night into Monday.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... Unsettled, cold ... mixed wintry showers likely, some snow is possible at times. Highs no better than 5-8 C. East to northeast winds 30-50 km/hr with stronger gusts near Irish Sea. There could be another round of streamers if the larger clumps of rain break up, but this time the dynamics are marginal for snow and so a real mixed bag of precipitation types can be expected, where elevation may be more important than region. Overnight lows will be about 1-3 C on average and could still fall below freezing in one or two spots.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY ... The model evolution at present indicates that if there is to be a more widespread and sustained snowfall event, it will likely cover the north at about this time frame ... otherwise the outcome is likely to be sleet with snow just on higher elevations, and cold rain in the south (this is more likely in any case). Winds could also become stronger from the E to NE during this period. Highs of only 2 to 5 C in the north, 5 to 8 C in the south, and continued icy conditions in some places overnight and mornings. The precipitation could also include sleet and even some freezing rain in north-central regions.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY ... There is still some risk of snow or sleet, even patchy freezing rain, in the north but for counties south of a line Meath to Galway, this is probably going to turn out to be a somewhat milder interval with heavy rain spreading across all regions, possibly 50-75 mm, in strong E to SE winds 50-80 km/hr. We'll be narrowing down the specifics later in the weekend or by Monday for how much rain and what, if any risk of snow ... most probable temperatures are about 7-9 C although it could stay 2-5 C in the north at least for part of this period.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Some models are showing hints of warmer weather to follow, others want to keep very chilly air masses over the region until Easter. The chances of a gradual warming trend seem better to this forecaster at present.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Variable cloud, wintry showers, some hail with thunder. Highs 7-9 C on lower ground but 3-6 C in parts of Wales, Scotland, northern England.

TONIGHT ... Wintry showers continuing, some icy patches on roads, lows -3 to +1.

OUTLOOK ... Unsettled, cold or very cold (although somewhat milder in southeast England). Highs generally 4-7 C all week but colder in parts of Scotland and a bit milder in the southeast. Heavy rain at times in south, heavy snow over higher parts of the north and sometimes also closer to sea level.


Forecasts for North America

Heavy snow is developing across central B.C. and parts of Alberta, while rather mild and moist air streams across the south of those provinces as part of a large-scale warming in the western U.S., covering the western two-thirds of the country now, except for Minnesota, Wisconsin and northern Illinois. East of Lake Michigan and further south, cold air remains in place with snow at times in the lower Great Lakes and New England. Rather bland weather between that snow and a warm, sunny spell developing across the Gulf coast. Highs in Texas are soaring into the 30s.

My local weather now requires aquatic skills to survive, that's all I am going to say about it. The morning was very foggy but it has turned a few degrees milder (12C).

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Sunday, 17 March, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for widespread icy or slippery roads both this morning (to about 10:00h) and overnight into Monday morning. Also, ALERT for widespread hail or snow showers the next several days and a slight to moderate risk of heavy accumulations of snow in northern and central (inland) counties mid-week, not just on hills but at lower elevations ... although it's later in March than the previous event, this one has less dry air to overcome and an abundant supply of moisture. Counties north of a line from Galway to Dublin (and in particular inland parts of Ulster) could see some significant snow cover developing especially around Wednesday.

TODAY -- St. Patrick's Day -- After another somewhat frosty start with partly cloudy skies in much of the country, but areas of sleety or wintry showers in parts of the north and west, the mid-day and afternoon will probably see more widespread wintry and possibly thundery showers of hail, sleet and (over hills in the north) snow. Although winds will turn more northerly in most regions, they will only be moderately strong in the west (30-50 km/hr), considerably lighter in other regions. Highs 6-8 C in the southeast but otherwise 3-6 C, temperatures falling even lower by evening.

TONIGHT ... Outbreaks of sleet or cold rain (south, east) and hill snow (north, west) with lows between -2 and +2 C. One or two places may clear for a while and drop briefly to -5 C. Expect some ice on untreated roads and also some freezing fog in some valleys.

MONDAY ... Cold with mixed wintry showers likely, and some snow is possible at times in higher parts of Connacht and Ulster. Highs no better than 5-8 C. East to northeast winds 30-50 km/hr with stronger gusts near Irish Sea. There could be some brief sunny intervals mainly in the south and east.

TUESDAY ... Little change with widespread mixed wintry showers, risk of snow on higher terrain in north. Morning lows near -1 C and afternoon highs 6-9 C. Moderate E to NE winds in north will add a chill.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY ... If there is to be a more widespread and sustained snowfall event, it will likely cover the north at about this time frame ... otherwise the outcome is likely to be sleet with snow just on higher elevations, and cold rain in the south (the rain in south is more likely in any case). Winds could also become stronger from the E to NE during this period. Highs of only 2 to 5 C in the north, 5 to 8 C in the south, and continued icy conditions in some places overnight and mornings. The precipitation could also include sleet and even some freezing rain in north-central regions.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY ... There is still some risk of snow or sleet, even patchy freezing rain, in the north but for counties south of a line Meath to Galway, this is probably going to turn out to be a somewhat milder interval with heavy rain spreading across all regions, possibly 50-75 mm, in strong E to SE winds 50-80 km/hr. We'll be narrowing down the specifics later in the weekend or by Monday for how much rain and what, if any risk of snow ... most probable temperatures are about 7-9 C although it could stay 2-5 C in the north at least for part of this period.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Some models are showing hints of warmer weather to follow, others want to keep very chilly air masses over the region until Easter. The chances of a gradual warming trend seem better to this forecaster at present and there has been a slight drift in that direction on the latest model runs.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Variable cloud, wintry showers, some hail with thunder. Highs 6-9 C on lower ground but 3-6 C in parts of Wales, and 2-5 C in much of Scotland, northern England although the west coasts could be closer to 7 C. Some heavy falls of wet snow are possible in Scotland at times.

TONIGHT ... Wintry showers continuing, snow in parts of Scotland, some icy patches on roads, lows -3 to +1.

OUTLOOK ... Unsettled, cold or very cold (although somewhat milder in southeast England). Highs generally 4-7 C all week but colder in parts of Scotland and a bit milder in the southeast. Heavy rain at times in south, heavy snow over higher parts of the north and sometimes also closer to sea level. Scotland has a much greater chance of seeing prolonged wintry conditions than most other regions in Britain or Ireland as the upper air temperatures there will be similar to what was seen in the south last week.


Forecasts for North America

The recent warm, dry spell in the west is rapidly breaking down with a strong storm developing near Denver CO moving towards the lower Great Lakes. Heavy snow is likely in the central and northern plains states and the Canadian prairies (15-30 cm could fall in some places). By tonight and tomorrow, rain will spread north and cover large parts of the south central states, Midwest, Ohio valley. The storm will try to lift warmer air into the lower Great Lakes but will probably develop a coastal feature about then, cutting off the warming and turning rain to sleet then snow over much of the inland northeast U.S. and lower Great Lakes. Very warm and increasingly humid near the Gulf coast, and warm, dry weather in the southwest, clearing on the west coast as yesterday's rain becomes squally hail showers over the Rockies (turning to snow east of Calgary).

My local weather on Saturday started showery, ended up dry with brief sunny intervals, and the high was about 10 C.

HAPPY ST PATRICK's DAY

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Tuesday, 19 March, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for scattered outbreaks of sleet, hail and snow, the snow is most likely today and Wednesday in north Leinster, Ulster and inland Connacht. Some heavy wet snow accumulations could do damage to tender vegetation. ADVANCE ALERT for heavy rainfalls and strong winds on Thursday into early Friday, 30-50 mm rain in south.

TODAY ... Continued very cold for this late in the season, with more widespread mixed wintry showers, increasing risk of snow in north including lower elevations too. Additional snowfalls of 4-8 cm possible in Ulster and far northern Leinster (south Derry-Tyrone-Fermanagh-Cavan-Monaghan appear best situated) ... snow at times in Dublin region is more likely to acccumulate on higher elevations and also during the morning hours as well as overnight ... highs 6-9 C in the south, possibly as low as 3-4 C north. Moderate E to NE winds 20-40 km/hr in north will add wind chill (at times, feeling more like zero to -3 C).

TONIGHT ... Possible heavy wet snow in Ulster (5-10 cm in some places), and higher parts of Leinster and Connacht. Sleet or rain dying out across the south, some clearing later, frost or ice and lows falling to -2 C or lower, but remaining closer to zero C in the snowfall zone.

WEDNESDAY ... Snow or sleet continuing in north (becoming more prevalent in east Ulster later, 5-8 cm accumulations possible) with sleet, hail or rain showers mostly south of Dublin to Mayo but also a few sunny intervals between showers. Morning lows -2 to +1 C and highs 6-9 C south, 2-5 C north.

THURSDAY ... Snow changing to sleet or freezing rain then rain in Ulster, otherwise, periods of rain moving north and becoming heavy at times (30 to 50 mm possible in south, 20-40 mm north-central and east). Winds gradually increasing E-SE 50-80 km/hr by late in the day. Morning lows about zero to 2 C and afternoon highs 6-8 C. Feeling raw and cold but actually a bit milder for the north.

FRIDAY ... Further outbreaks of rain (5-15 mm), becoming showery, and a little milder again, highs near 10-12 C south, 6-8 C north, in moderate SE winds gusting to 70 km/hr, easing to moderate southerlies.

OUTLOOK ... This part of the forecast has become quite uncertain (again) as the models continue to play a form of blind man's bluff with the pattern beyond Friday, now there are some solutions showing continued cold easterly flow (pushing back against the slight mild tendency at the end of the week) and other solutions bringing a very slow warming trend as speculated previously. Most of the more aggressive cold solutions in the past week have proven to be a touch overdone so I would say 60-40 chance of the slight warming trend winning out, but really after such a cold month (going back to about mid-February) the pattern seems stubborn enough to hang around an extra week (or two, etc). We could expect more clarity on this tomorrow, as the strong low pressure for Thursday becomes more clearly defined.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Continuing outbreaks of heavy sleet or snow in the north with some accumulations mainly in Scotland and inland northeast England of 5-15 cm, cold rain showers closer to sea level and in some parts of the south, hail and thunder possible at times in the southeast. Also, a few sunny intervals in southern England, west Midlands, Wales, with isolated showers of hail or rain (snow on higher slopes). Highs 1-4 C north, 7-10 C south. Some higher parts of Scotland could have temperatures below freezing at times even during the mid-day hours (during snowfall).

TONIGHT ... Heavy snow and very cold in Scotland mixing with rain or sleet in lower elevations of northern England, lows about -4 C in parts of Scotland and -2 C in northern England. Sleet or wet snow, hail further south, lows near zero C.

OUTLOOK ... Unsettled, cold or very cold (although somewhat milder in southeast England). Highs generally 4-7 C all week but colder in parts of Scotland and a bit milder in the southeast. Heavy rain at times in south with potential for flooding in southwest England and south Wales, heavy snow over higher parts of the north and sometimes also closer to sea level. Scotland has a much greater chance of seeing severe wintry conditions than most other regions in Britain or Ireland (Tuesday to Friday and possibly also continuing on the weekend), as the upper air temperatures there will be similar to what was seen in the south last week.


Forecasts for North America

Heavy snow inland northeast, sleet or rain closer to the Atlantic coast, and sleet turning to wet snow in the Great Lakes region as a two-part storm continues to push slowly northeast. Highs 0-2 C but closer to 5 C near the shore. Very warm air covers the south central and southwest states, but in between (southeast U.S., central plains states) cloudy and near normal temperatures. Remnants of a strong cold front will be crossing Florida's northern third today before dying out later. Very cold weather continues in most of inland western Canada but this trends to near normal temperatures on the west coast, with outbreaks of light snow on a weak front across the Rockies.

My local weather on Monday was sunny and cool, highs near 8 C.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Thursday, 21 March, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for heavy rainfalls and strong winds later today into Friday, 30-50 mm rain in south and east, spot flooding likely, and strong E-SE winds gusting to 100 km/hr in exposed locations. ALERT for heavy wet snow in higher parts of east and north later today and Friday, some accumulations of 15-30 cm above 300m, lesser accumulations 150-300m in Ulster, mixing with rain in Leinster ... ADVANCE ALERT for significant cold and isolated heavy snowfalls Sunday to mid-week.

TODAY ... Periods of rain moving north and becoming heavy at times (20 to 40 mm possible in south during this daytime period, 15-30 mm north-central and east). Winds gradually increasing E-SE 50-80 km/hr by late in the day. Morning temperatures rather raw about 3-4 C and afternoon or evening highs 6-8 C except 4-6 C north. Rain may start as heavy wet snow and change to sleet on higher elevations of east and north, remaining heavy snow on hills.

TONIGHT will continue windy and wet with a further 20-30 mm of rain and spot flooding likely in poorly drained locations in south, central and east. Temperatures will be steady 3-5 C and winds could peak at 70-100 km/hr before easing slightly as winds veer ESE to SSE. Foggy especially over hills and in north, inland southeast. Some continued sleet or snow on highest elevations.

FRIDAY ... Further outbreaks of rain (5-15 mm), becoming showery, and a little milder again, highs near 10 C south and west, 6-8 C north and east, in moderate SSE winds gusting to 70 km/hr, easing to moderate 30-50 km/hr. Fog continuing over hills and parts of north. Some risk of heavy snow accumulations in parts of Ulster, above 250m most likely, and even there, snow could change to sleet or rain at times. Temperatures in this mixed precip zone will be 1-2 C.

SATURDAY ... Breezy to windy and colder as winds back into ESE again, at average speeds of 40-60 km/hr. Temperatures steady 3-5 C except 5-7 C west Munster, then falling slightly in north. Light rain or drizzle may begin to turn sleety then mix with ice pellets or snow in north by afternoon. Snow may become heavier and accumulate in parts of Ulster as temperatures fall to -1 C. In general, a raw and cold day, especially on higher terrain.

SUNDAY ... Windy and very cold with mixed wintry showers, quite often taking the form of snow or ice pellets, and extending gradually further south and west during the morning and mid-day hours, with temperatures struggling to move upwards from morning values of 2-4 C. Winds easterly 40-70 km/hr. Dry and cold with some sunny intervals in the west, with a few passing flurries. There could be some locally heavy snowfalls in Leinster and Ulster with potential for 5-15 cm accumulations, also from Waterford to Cork on south coast, slight risk of 3-6 cm snow.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... Windy and very cold, further wintry showers or snow, and the risk of heavy accumulations in Leinster and Ulster, slight risk of some accumulation near south coast and high risk of snow and ice on any terrain above 150m in all regions. Highs only 3-5 C and overnight lows falling somewhat below freezing. Ice will be a bigger problem than frost due to the winds, but agricultural interests should note this will be a prolonged spell of rather severe weather given the time of year. Snow could accumulate to 15 cm or more in some places (details to be worked out closer to the event, but would think north Leinster, inland Ulster prime for this, higher slopes of Dublin and Wicklow mountains also likely).

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... There are continuing signs of a gradual end to this prolonged period of unusual cold and "blocked" weather starting later next week. The details are uncertain in the extreme but it could be closer to seasonable weather (highs 10-13 C) by the Easter weekend and early April. One forecast model, however, keeps the region in cold northeast to north winds as far out as early April, so this is not a certainty yet.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Windy with heavy rain (15-30 mm), starting as heavy sleet or snow in regions north of about B'ham to Lincoln ... some heavy falls of snow in north. Winds increasing to E-SE 50-90 km/hr with higher gusts near south coast. Temperatures slowly rising to reach 8-10 C south, 4-6 C central, 2-4 C north.

TONIGHT ... Rain will continue to edge further north, sleet and snow may become heavy over parts of north-central England and southern Scotland. Rain heavy at times in the southwest with flooding in some places. Winds SE 50-80 km/hr.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY ... Mild air will stall later Friday, and then will be pushed back south, never reaching Scotland or northeast England, and any sleet or rain in the north will change back to snow as cold east winds redevelop. This snow will move south somewhat erratically (daytime heating will change phase back to rain) but by the end of this period, snow could be falling almost anywhere except perhaps the far southwest, with temperatures very cold for late March (0-2 C).

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... See Ireland forecast, same general evolution from Monday onwards (very cold with heavy snow at times in Scotland and northeast England).


Forecasts for North America

The dominant weather-maker in North America is a strong arctic high located over north-central Canada where it's mainly clear and about -25 C. This extends a ridge south into the central U.S. and sub-freezing wintry conditions have spread as far south as the Great Lakes, Midwest and parts of the Ohio valley and inland northeast states, after snow fell recently ... today will continue very cold for late March in all these regions with highs -2 to -4 C, trending to partly cloudy and 2-4 C along the east coast where a strong W-NW wind will make it feel just as cold. Snow will develop from an intensifying low moving north into eastern Canada, but this will largely miss New England. Light snow continues to fall in some parts of the inland northeast from the weak secondary low that was following the now-expired storm system. Meanwhile it is quite warm and becoming cloudy with rain to follow in the south central states. This rain turns to sleet then snow further north, and heavy snow will develop later in parts of Montana, North Dakota and Saskatchewan, from a low that is moving through Alberta early morning, bringing a sudden end to a mild chinook event around Calgary and points south. West coast regions are drying out from several days of light rain and can expect partly cloudy skies and near normal temperatures later on.

My local weather on Wednesday was cloudy with a few light showers, and brisk west to northwest winds at times, chilly again with a high of about 7 C.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Saturday, 23 March, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for outbreaks of snow today and tonight in parts of Ulster, north Leinster and inland Connacht, amounts highly variable but isolated 10-20 cm possible ... icy roads and some disruptions in these regions ... ADVANCE ALERT for significant snowfall and unseasonable cold, frosts and icy roads at times Sunday to mid-week, all regions except far southwest.

TODAY ... Not as windy but colder except in parts of Munster, as winds back into ESE for all regions, at average speeds of 35-55 km/hr. Temperatures steady 3-5 C except 6-8 C west Munster, 1-3 Ulster. Light rain or drizzle may begin to turn sleety then mix with ice pellets or snow in north Leinster by mid-day, meanwhile outbreaks of snow, sleet or icy rain will continue in various parts of Ulster. Snow may become heavier and accumulate in parts of Ulster and later in north Leinster as temperatures fall to -1 to +1 C. Sleet may change to snow in higher parts of central Leinster. In general, a raw and cold day, especially on higher terrain. For Dublin especially lower elevations, the raw drizzle will continue at times until evening then mix with snow. Here, temperatures will be steady 4-5 C. Aside from parts of eastern NI, the inland portions of Louth and Meath, and also Westmeath, Longford, Monaghan, Cavan, Leitrim and inland Donegal are most at risk for snow mid-day and afternoon.

TONIGHT ... Evening rain or sleet will change to snow for a time in the south, and there may be some further outbreaks of snow central and northern counties, accumulations generally 3-5 cm but mainly in rural areas and above 100m asl. Lows -2 to +1 C in brisk easterly winds 40-70 km/hr. Feeling as cold as -10 in parts of north Leinster. Not quite as cold in west Munster, lows about 2-3 C, drizzle at times, sleet on hills.

SUNDAY ... Windy and very cold with mixed wintry showers, quite often taking the form of snow or ice pellets, and extending gradually further south and west during the morning and mid-day hours, with temperatures struggling to move upwards from morning values of 2-4 C. Winds easterly 40-70 km/hr. Dry and cold with some sunny intervals in the west, with a few passing flurries. There could be some locally heavy snowfalls in Leinster and Ulster with potential for 5-15 cm accumulations, also from Waterford to Cork on south coast, slight risk of 3-6 cm snow by evening or overnight into Monday morning. Wind chills near -5 C.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... Windy and very cold, further wintry showers or snow, and the risk of heavy accumulations in Leinster and Ulster, slight risk of some accumulation near south coast and high risk of snow and ice on any terrain above 150m in all regions. Highs only 3-5 C and overnight lows falling somewhat below freezing. Ice will be a bigger problem than frost due to the winds, but agricultural interests should note this will be a prolonged spell of rather severe weather given the time of year. Snow could accumulate to 15 cm or more in some places notably inland Meath, Dublin, Kildare, Westmeath, Laois, east Ulster and higher slopes of Dublin and Wicklow mountains also likely to see accumulations ... the usual urban variations around Dublin are likely but this time the distribution may be different than previously).

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Further snowfall may develop, mixing with sleet, around Thursday as a low cuts under the cold easterly flow and moves across southern Britain. After that, the Easter weekend may be a period of slow recovery to somewhat more normal temperatures although still a bit below seasonal normals, with some appearances of sunshine and some mixed wintry showers here and there. Frosts will continue but daytime highs could get closer to 10 C eventually.


Forecasts for Britain

THIS WEEKEND ... Mild air will be pushed back further south, as colder air begins to cover most of southern England on Saturday and all of the southwest during Sunday, and any sleet or rain left over will change back to snow as cold east winds redevelop. This snow will move south somewhat erratically (daytime heating will change phase back to rain) but by the end of this period, snow could be falling almost anywhere except perhaps the far southwest, with temperatures very cold for late March (0-2 C). Today, the heaviest falls of snow will be in Wales, west Midlands, parts of Yorkshire, northeast England and eastern Scotland. Tonight, they may become more scattered throughout these regions but also will include portions of east Anglia and the greater London region, south central counties. By Sunday, snowfall will be more isolated and related to east winds from the North Sea, as well as outbreaks near the Channel.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... See Ireland forecast, same general evolution from Monday onwards (very cold with heavy snow at times in Scotland and northeast England). Winds throughout will be brisk easterly and temperatures near record low values, -3 C overnight, +3 C daytime on average. There could be heavy snow again around Thursday-Friday in some higher parts of the south and east, with rain near sea level.


Forecasts for North America

Extensive cloud and rain developing in the south central states will turn to snow over central plains states tonight and Sunday. This snowfall will move through the Ohio valley, lower Great Lakes, inland northeast next 2-3 days, prolonging the already overdrawn winter season. Coastal regions near the Atlantic will stay somewhat milder in mixed rain and snow at times once this storm arrives but most will have a cool, dry weekend with some sunshine at times. Stormy in eastern Canada, some heavy snowfalls. Unseasonably cold in most of western Canada also, further outbreaks of snow likely in Alberta, clear and very cold eastern prairies. Milder and largely dry in far west.

My local weather on Friday was partly cloudy with outbreaks of isolated hail showers that missed my location. Highs 8-10 C.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Monday, 25 March, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for risk of locally heavy snowfalls and the certainty of unseasonable cold, frosts and icy roads at times from later today in north, to mid-week central and south, any snowfall most likely in parts of north Leinster and Ulster, possibly extending to midlands and south coast at times. ADVANCE ALERT for risk of wintry precipitation over the Easter weekend period, currently assessed as "moderate" or about 50-60 per cent likely as guidance is somewhat split on this outcome.

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy with cold east winds, some sunny intervals more likely in the west, some wintry showers including some accumulations of snow mainly in north Leinster and east Ulster (Meath, Westmeath, Longford, also Cavan, Monaghan, Louth) and by later today also near south coast and in Wicklow and Wexford. Amounts generally light but potential for 5-15 cm locally in streamers. Highs about 2-4 C, winds E 40-70 km/hr.

TONIGHT through THURSDAY ... The overnight hours will be bitterly cold all through the week, and lows could reach -8 C near snow cover in the north and otherwise near -5 C although closer to -2 C east coast and south coast due to the slight modifying effects of open water. Tonight, snow may continue in some places from developments this afternoon, watch for updates. In general, for overnight hours this week, some snow could develop at times mostly during evening hours continuing on from daytime developments ... The days mid-week will be very cold with about equal mixtures of cloud and sunshine although tending more sunny in the west, with greater risk of snowfall in isolated streamers near east coast, south coast and parts of Ulster. Amounts with these could at any time reach 5-15 cm in rather limited regions. Over time, Meath, Dublin, Wicklow, Waterford and inland southeast, east Ulster are regions most likely to see at least slight accumulations during the period. Details may change as we pick up indications of trough features or better short-term satellite and radar indications. We expect a similar outcome to that seen two weeks ago where one or two locations saw significant snow, quite a few saw snow without much disruption, and many (particularly west) saw just a few flakes in the wind or no snow at all.

FURTHER OUTLOOK for EASTER WEEKEND ... The outlook remains uncertain since model output ranges from continued cold with snow potential (in south mainly inland, central and possibly north), sleet or rain potential (in south), to dry cold, to other solutions that include gradual warming and showers. The most likely outcome based on a weighted blend of reliable guidance is for intervals of sleet or snow turning more to rain but only near the south coast for that, through the period. It should be noted that there is potential for a disruptive snow event in the mix, most likely on Good Friday and across inland south and east. We currently assess this risk at about 30% likely, with another 40% chance of light non-disruptive snowfall and/or sleet.

Any sort of return to more normal by then April weather appears to be pushed back to about the second week of April now. The culprit remains the very strong blocking high over Greenland and nearby parts of the north polar regions including a lot of northern Canada and far northern Europe -- all over that extensive region pressures are 20-40 mb higher than usually seen and while these pressures might not be that notable for any one location, the extent of them is unusual and is maintaining a frigid easterly flow almost around the hemisphere now (although it pushes well north in my time zone, so we are getting a more modified version of this severe cold, however, eastern and central North America are just as far into the deep freeze if not more so, for example south of Chicago there has been a foot of snow in the past day or two. Last year it was close to 80 deg F or 27 deg C there.)

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Very cold, outbreaks of snow in east, central regions, some brief sunny intervals in a few places, highs generally near 1 or 2 C but closer to 4 C in the southwest. Winds east 40-70 km/hr. Generally speaking, snowfall amounts 1-3 cm at most, with some local additional 3-6 cm and a little more blowing and drifting of snow already on ground.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, isolated snow flurries or heavier falls in some parts of east, lows -6 to -3 C but could drop to -10 C in Scotland well inland.

OUTLOOK ... Similar to Ireland from Tuesday onward with the same uncertainty about developments around Easter weekend, although in general it will be even colder in central, northern England and most of Scotland. If skies clear extensively at any point, watch for some record low temperatures below -10 C to be recorded.


Forecasts for North America

Snow will continue to move east after covering the Ohio valley and mid-Mississippi valley regions with up to 30 cm in places. Further snowfalls there will be 3-5 cm before partial clearing later, and the storm will weaken somewhat to give 10-20 cm amounts in the inland mid-Atlantic states and parts of s PA, NJ, NYC region and Long Island. This storm may largely miss New England but a light snow could develop close to Long Island Sound and on the outer Cape and Islands. Dry and cold further north. Meanwhile, the southeast will be drying out somewhat from heavy rainfalls on Sunday, in a cool and cloudy westerly flow, with mountain flurries as far south as Georgia later today. Highs in Florida will be pleasant near 20 C but otherwise about 10 to 13 C in the southeast at lower elevations. Clear and rather chilly for the central plains and southern plains states once cloud from the eastern low departs this morning. Clear and very cold in parts of the northern plains and Canadian prairies. Cloudy and near normal temperatures further west trending to light rain on the outer coast by late afternoon or overnight.

My local weather on Sunday was cloudy to start, sunny by afternoon, but it continues a bit cooler than normal at 8-9 C (but I would not want to complain given what most regions are seeing).