Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Sunday, 7 October, 2012
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Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Sunny intervals morning in east and north, cloudy to start in south and west, with increasing cloud east, some parts of south turning milder, but a cold feel to the winds in exposed coastal locations (ESE 20-40 mph by late in the day near south coast). Rain may spread some distance inland from southwest coast, 5-10 mm in west Munster. Highs 13-16 C in south and west, 11-13 C in north and east.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy except for some clear intervals in Ulster, rain confined to Munster and south Leinster, a further 3-5 mm in places, moderate southeast winds ... lows 2-5 C north, to 7-10 C south.

MONDAY ... Cloudy, milder, fog or drizzle, periods of light rain. This will be the dying circulation of Nadine approaching. Rain rather light with a few heavier bursts near the south coast, generally 5-15 mm and it may remain dry in the north. Highs 15-18 C south but 12-14 C north. As the circulation weakens, winds from SE will remain moderate and could decrease at times to light.

TUESDAY ... Rain or drizzle to showers, rather small amounts and largely confined to south, in fact there could be a bit of watery sunshine through higher cloud in the north, lows 8-10 C and highs near 15 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Mostly cloudy, misty, drizzle or rain, highs 11-13 C. A slight northeast wind may develop as the oncoming low weakens and remnants of the circulation drift across the south. Rainfall amounts only 2-5 mm.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, some patchy drizzle or showers, winds becoming stronger in western districts from southwest at 20-40 mph. Lows generally 4-7 C and highs near 12 C.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY ... Unsettled and turning rather windy from west to northwest, rather cold, highs 9-12 C. Hail may occur in north as freezing levels will be down to about 1500m.

OUTLOOK ... The unsettled period may just gradually trend to light rain or drizzle in a cold northeast to easterly breeze, with a dry and cool interval followed by milder weather in a southwest flow. The month as a whole looks a bit colder than average but could end with much milder weather.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Increasing cloud for most, sunshine becoming dimmed by high cloud in northeast England and parts of Scotland. Rain in Cornwall by evening, otherwise largely dry. Highs near 13 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain in parts of the southwest, cloudy south-central including most of Wales, lows 5-8 C. Clear intervals further north, patchy frost, lows about -2 to +4 C.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... Rain or drizzle confined mainly to south, including parts of south Wales, north remaining largely dry under higher pressure, nights bringing some fog or frost. Highs 11-13 C and lows 6-8 C south trending down to about -2 C in parts of north.

OUTLOOK ... Similar trend to Ireland with increasing winds for the north through mid-week and some cold, almost wintry showers for Scotland at times, these spreading further south by Friday and the weekend, snow on hills possibly (above 800 m).


Forecasts for North America

A simple and rather common autumn pattern, mild and dry in the west and chilly most other regions in a broad northwest flow that ends with showers or periods of rain near the east coast. A reinforcing wave of showers is developing over the Midwest and moving towards the northeast U.S. and lower Great Lakes. Highs generally 10-13 C east, 15-18 C southeast, trending to 20s in the south central and western regions, locally near 30 C in some valleys of the far west.

My local weather on Saturday was once again sunny and rather warm with a high of about 22 C, shirt-sleeves weather by day, chilly at night.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Tuesday, 9 October, 2012
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Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Rain or drizzle ending for a while, or confined to outer south coast as drizzle, while there will likely be some weak sunshine through variable amounts of mostly higher cloud in the north and central counties, with highs near 13 C. Light east winds.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy across the south, rain resuming near south coast, partly cloudy further north, lows will range from about 2-4 C north to 7-10 C south and there could be patchy ground frost well inland north.

WEDNESDAY ... Mostly cloudy, misty, drizzle or rain, highs 11-13 C. A slight northeast wind may develop as the oncoming low weakens and begins to interact with the trough further north. Rainfall amounts only 2-5 mm, except for some heavier amounts in west Munster. Heavier rainfalls seem likely on Wednesday night with 5-15 mm as a wave forms over Ireland heading east.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, some patchy drizzle or showers, winds becoming stronger in western districts from west veering northwest at 20-40 mph. Lows generally 4-7 C and highs near 12 C. Further rainfalls about 5-10 mm.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY ... Unsettled and turning rather windy from west to northwest, rather cold, highs 9-12 C. Hail may occur in north as freezing levels will be down to about 1500m.

SUNDAY-MONDAY ... Periods of rain or showers and chilly, slight northeast circulation developing, highs 9-12 C.

OUTLOOK ... The unsettled period may just gradually trend to light rain or drizzle in a cold northeast to easterly breeze, with a dry and cool interval followed by milder weather in a southwest flow. The month as a whole looks a bit colder than average but could end with much milder weather.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY, TONIGHT ... Rain or drizzle confined mainly to south, including parts of south Wales, north remaining largely dry under higher pressure, nights bringing some fog or frost. Highs 11-13 C and lows 6-8 C south trending down to about -2 C in parts of north. As the system is dying out, rain is likely to be drizzly for most today and tonight, further amounts generally less than 5 mm in the southwest and staying largely dry further north.

OUTLOOK ... Similar trend to Ireland with increasing winds for the north through mid-week and some cold, almost wintry showers for Scotland at times, these spreading further south by Friday and the weekend, snow on hills possibly (above 800 m).


Forecasts for North America

Little change in general as warm, dry weather holds on in the far west and the south-central U.S., with colder than average conditions over much of the central and eastern regions, with outbreaks of light rain or even mixed precip over higher ground and further north.

My local weather on a holiday Monday here was once again sunny and quite warm with a high of 21 C.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Thursday, 11 October, 2012
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ALERT for locally heavy rainfalls in central counties this morning, spreading northeast towards east Ulster and north Leinster later this morning through mid-day. Dublin may be included but the main thrust of the heavier rainfall appears to be directed towards Meath, Westmeath, Louth, Cavan and Monaghan, then into east Ulster. Amounts of 20-30 mm are likely and some flooding mainly on roads with poor drainage (leaves may block drains) and smaller streams.

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Rain continues to spread east and northeast, clearing should begin soon near the west coast and this will slowly spread further east with some sunny intervals in variable cloud amounts, so a much better day for the west than other regions ... heavy rain will slowly push away from west-central counties into east Ulster and north Leinster, with the heaviest falls near 30 mm likely to run from Offaly towards Meath and Louth into east Ulster. Dublin and region will also see moderate to heavy rainfalls of 15-25 mm, but further south amounts will be more variable in a showery regime. Highs near 14 C, winds generally light with the rainfall then picking up to moderate W to NW at about 20-35 mph by afternoon (west) and evening (east). Rain may produce some local flooding on roads in the areas mentioned as recently fallen leaves block some drains. Rain likely to persist much of the day near east coast as the system slows down over the Irish Sea. This may lead to a secondary period of moderate rain moving up the coast from Wicklow to coastal Dublin by later afternoon. Rain may slowly become accompanied by dense fog as temperatures fall to the saturation point.

TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy with some clear intervals, isolated showers, lows near 5 C on average, any spots that clear could drop to about 2-3 C and then see the development of fog. Watch out if driving late tonight for patchy dense fog with near-zero visibility in places where heavy rain has fallen.

FRIDAY ... Rather chilly to start, some dense fog and isolated frost inland slowly clearing away, sunny intervals then increasing cloud, showers, moderate SW to W winds, highs 9-13 C.

SATURDAY ... Cloudy, showers or periods of rain, 3-7 mm on average, lows about 5 C and highs about 12 C. Winds W veering to NW 20-30 mph.

SUNDAY ... Mostly cloudy, showers or longer periods of light rain, chilly with north to northeast winds, lows near 5 C and highs near 9 C north, 11 C south.

MONDAY ... Increasing cloud, becoming windy and milder with frequent showers to periods of rain by evening, highs near 14 C.

OUTLOOK ... Unsettled most of next week, possible strong winds at times.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Cloudy with showers developing, mostly over western parts, heavy at times by afternoon in southwest Scotland and north, west Wales. Highs 12-16 C, warmest in south central inland. Moderate southerly winds developing, some stronger gusts by late afternoon near southwest coasts.

TONIGHT ... Periods of rain with risk of thunder, some local flooding in Wales and northwest England, spreading to northeast England later in the night, amounts 20-40 mm there, 10-20 mm southern England and east Midlands. Lows generally mild around 9-12 C.

FRIDAY ... Rain to showers, then gradual clearing more effective in west, highs 13-15 C, moderate westerly winds with some gusty periods in the north.

OUTLOOK ... Frequent showers, periods of rain, highs around 12-14 C, rather chilly for early October. Turning even a bit colder on Sunday especially in northern and inland central regions, daytime temperatures could be quite low around 7-9 C. Frosts may follow in a few places but it will remain mostly cloudy and frequent showers (sleety on hills) likely.


Forecasts for North America

The main theme continues to be slow replacement of the anomalous warmth in west and cold in east with a more bland "zonal" pattern with near normal temperatures becoming more dominant. The warm spell has now broken down into a few remnant patches well inland over the Rockies as Pacific moisture spreads inland and subtropical cloud and showers spread north across the inland southwest. Over the eastern regions, some rain at times in the Great Lakes and inland northeast, continuing partly cloudy and near average in temperature in other parts of the eastern and central U.S.

My local weather on Wednesday was foggy to start, rather cold as the fog formed late in the otherwise clear night, then the fog lingered most of the day becoming a low overcast with drizzle and highs near 13 C.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Saturday, 13 October, 2012
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Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, showers or periods of rain, 3-7 mm on average, rain mostly in south at first, then a second wave will develop further north, this slowly moving southeast. Highs 10 to 13 C. Winds W veering to NW 20-30 mph by evening or overnight.

TONIGHT ... Partly to mostly cloudy, cold, with a few more showers or intervals of light rain, becoming more confined to southeast as a weak push of somewhat drier air develops across Ulster. Lows 2-5 C with slight risk of frost in north inland.

SUNDAY ... Mostly cloudy, showers or longer periods of light rain, chilly with north to northeast winds, and highs near 9 C north, 11 C south. There could be some longer dry spells in parts of Connacht although limited sunshine as the moisture departs towards southern England and northern France.

MONDAY ... Morning frosts under partly cloudy to clear skies, lows -2 to +3 C then increasing cloud, becoming breezy (SW 20-35 mph) to windy and milder with frequent showers to periods of rain by evening, highs 12 to 14 C.

TUESDAY and rest of week ... Periods of rain, foggy at times, increasing southeast winds across Munster (into the 30-50 mph range), and highs near 13 C. Potential for 10-30 mm rainfalls with similar amounts on Wednesday as this disturbance may be a slow moving and meandering system, continuing unsettled Thursday-Friday with showers or further rain. Temperatures in a narrow range mostly either side of 10 C. Some models are showing stronger winds mid-week (45-65 mph seems to be the upper limit so far) but this aspect is not quite settled and the storm may produce these winds mostly offshore before arriving in a somewhat weaker condition, but the significant rainfall is probably inevitable from the range of outcomes.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Variable cloud with showers, becoming a steady rain in western districts by this evening. Highs about 10-13 C.

TONIGHT and SUNDAY ... Periods of rain, possibly heavy at times in the south with 30 mm potential, lows near 6 C and highs 9-11 C, more showery further north and slight clearing trend for Scotland in a moderate northeast flow.

OUTLOOK ... Further rain at times in south then spreading back north during the first half of the week, heavy rain at times mid-week, cool with highs only 9-12 C for most, 14 C southeast England where strong winds may develop around Thursday.


Forecasts for North America

Rain is now spreading inland on the west coast and a new disturbance is spreading heavy rain into the Midwest from the central plains states. The trend is now towards warmer weather in the eastern U.S. and most of this rain is heading for Ontario and border regions of the inland northeast, while the coastal cities remain partly cloudy warming up to around 21 C. Tropical storm Rafael has formed southeast of Puerto Rico and threatens to spread heavy rain across that island tonight and Sunday.

My local weather on Friday was foggy with low cloud and drizzle turning to a steady rain, breaking a long drought here. About 15 mm has now fallen and about the same amount is likely overnight.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Monday, 15 October, 2012
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Astronomy note: New moon occurs later today at 1:04 p.m. IST.

ALERT for locally heavy rainfalls tonight of 15-25 mm across central and some northern counties. ADVANCE ALERT continued for heavy rainfalls in many parts of the country this week, heaviest around mid-week but the main aspect of concern is probably the cumulative amounts by end of the week as systems will tend to be slow-moving and more or less continual in building up rainfall totals of 50 to 100 mm during the period.


Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Frost and locally dense fog patches under partly cloudy to clear skies should clear gradually, sunny intervals then increasing cloud, becoming breezy (SW 20-35 mph) to windy and milder with frequent showers to periods of rain by evening, highs 12 to 14 C. Rainfalls of 10-20 mm likely across the west, but this won't reach eastern counties until overnight.

TONIGHT ... Heavy showers or periods of rain, a further 10-20 mm spreading rapidly to the northeast, followed by some clearing in the south but continued residual showers further north, winds increasing to SW 25-45 mph, slight risk of local wind damage in southeast. Lows 5-8 C.

TUESDAY ... Morning showers moving away from eastern counties although possibly no breaks in overcast in north, brief clearing more effective in south, but more showers or periods of rain moving in during the afternoon and evening, and highs near 13 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Rain, heavy at times, with embedded thunder. South coast and possibly east coast rather windy (SE to SW 35-55 mph), not as windy further north, rainfalls heaviest from west Munster northeast towards midlands and Ulster (potential for 30 mm). Temperatures steady 10-12 C, possibly 14-16 C briefly in south. Flooding may develop in parts of inland south to midlands by evening. A few locations on south coast could have wind gusts to 65 mph late afternoon.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... Further showers or periods of rain, temperatures steady around 10 C by day and falling a bit where skies clear briefly overnight although otherwise lows will be 5-7 C, rainfalls of 10-20 mm per day on average, some heavier amounts possible, so that flooding may become more widespread. The range of outcomes on the models includes different wind directions for Ireland and if the bulk of low pressure remains south of Munster then the north may not be as wet as the likely ECM outcome which includes low pressure continuing to drift northeast. On probability, the south central regions could see the greatest risk of flooding but this may change closer to the event.

OUTLOOK ... Unsettled through the first half of the weekend although with a slight improving trend as long as low pressure remains well off to the southwest as now generally shown on models, some chance of a more settled week to follow as a milder south to southeast flow develops. Since normal values are falling steadily, this milder trend may not push temperatures much higher than 13-14 C and it may be quite a gradual increase that includes some rather chilly nights.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Variable cloud, a few showers mainly in central regions, cool with highs near 9 or 10 C.

TONIGHT ... Increasing cloud followed by rain and strong SW winds across the south, moderate SE winds in northern England and Scotland. Rainfalls of about 20 mm with lows 6-9 C.

TUESDAY ... Rain to showers, windy. Some clearing later in southwest but otherwise rather unsettled with highs 10-12 C.

OUTLOOK ... Further heavy rain at times mid-week, cool with highs only 9-12 C for most, 14 C southeast England where strong winds may develop around Thursday. Rainfall may become excessive and lead to flooding in parts of north-central England and possibly west of London. Potential for rainfall totals in some parts of 75-125 mm.


Forecasts for North America

Rain to showers over the west coast with some clearing later, rain changing to snow over parts of inland B.C. and north-central Alberta. Showers and risk of a thunderstorm from northeast U.S. across Ohio valley into south central states. Some areas warm and dry in southeast. Also warm and dry over parts of the Rockies and southwest states. Rafael may become a minimal hurricane as it moves rapidly north towards Bermuda (which it will pass tomorrow).

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Wednesday, 17 October, 2012

ALERT for further heavy rainfalls (20-40 mm) and strong winds today, extending to all parts of the country this morning and involving two or three waves of heavy rainfall or thunderstorms. Strong winds are likely to be more confined to the south coast of Munster later today.

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Periods of heavy to torrential rain will continue to spread across the northern half of Ireland this morning, followed by brief clearing and then further heavy showers or thunderstorms already underway in Cork and Kerry. These will also spread north and bring thundery downpours to central counties by mid-day, and further thundery showers may move inland across the south by afternoon. ... For most, the winds will continue moderate SE to E 20-40 mph but some parts of the south coast will see localized southerly gales to 50-60 mph by mid-day and afternoon as the slowly weakening low centre drifts inland near Valentia. ... Rainfalls of 20-40 mm are likely in many places with flooding possible, and the conditions may lead to overtopping of coastal areas in the south ... highs 13-15 C ... some of the later thunderstorms could produce severe lightning and hail.

TONIGHT ... Further showers or periods of rain, 5-15 mm amounts, winds peaking at around 40-65 mph (SSE) early evening south coast then diminishing through the night, other regions will see moderate southeasterly to southerly breezes 20-35 mph, and lows of about 7 C. Localized flooding could continue.

THURSDAY ... Showers continuing but heavier in Connacht and west Ulster, where 15-25 mm possible. Otherwise, 5-15 mm with variable skies and some brief sunny intervals, highs 12-14 C. The main risk of flooding would be from any continued discharges of swollen streams from earlier rainfalls as well as new flood risks in parts of the northwest.

FRIDAY ... Hopefully the system will be so weakened by Friday that rainfall amounts will be generally 2-5 mm in scattered showers and some drying can commence under partly cloudy skies, lows near 5 C and highs near 13 C.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, mild, isolated showers. Lows near 6 C and highs near 14 C.

SUNDAY ... Cloudy and rather muggy, warm with outbreaks of rain possible in southeasterly winds of 15-30 mph. Lows near 8 C and highs 15-17 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Rather mild and unsettled but rainfall amounts slight, one global model features a much colder period later in the week but that depends on a combination of retrogression and weakening of Rafael that could both prove false, so we can't be very confident about that colder interval actually developing.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Heavy rainfalls spreading north, some torrential in south central, Midlands, Wales with flood risk and 30-50 mm amounts, east winds 20-40 mph veering to southerly in parts of southern England, highs generally 10-12 C but could reach 14-16 C southwest.

TONIGHT ... Further heavy showers, some with thunder, lows 7-10 C. Flood risk high in Wales and central England, spreading to northern England and southern Scotland.

THURSDAY ... Outbreaks of rain will continue with a slight improving trend across the south, average amounts 10-15 mm, highs 12-14 C.

OUTLOOK ... Partly cloudy to overcast, milder, showers more isolated and some hazy sunshine at times, highs 14-16 C. Scotland more unsettled and highs 12-14 C.


Forecasts for North America

Warm and sunny on east coast with cloud and heavy showers spreading north from around eastern Texas to Minnesota. A line of severe storms is likely to develop and move towards a Chicago-Louisville-Nashville arc by this evening, with some tornadic risk. Windy and colder behind this front with mixed rain and snow in parts of the eastern prairies, Dakotas in strong to gale force NW winds. Steady rain across the northern Great Lakes with fog and east winds. Improving further west as high pressure crests over the Great Basin states, then further rain moving ashore in central to northern B.C. and Alaska.

My local weather on Tuesday was cloudy with some sunny breaks and isolated showers, highs near 14 C. The dry lawns got quite a soaking over the weekend and have responded by turning almost green (not quite) with a lot of leaves down now while others are turning colour.

Check the forum threads for updates on the progress of heavy rainfall and severe local storms, coastal flooding.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Friday, 19 October, 2012


Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Misty to start, becoming partly cloudy with longer sunny intervals developing in a few parts of the midlands, isolated showers confined mainly to north and west near coasts, and highs near 13 C.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy becoming overcast with mist and fog patches, lows 3 to 7 C ... isolated frost possible where it stays clear longer.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, mild, isolated showers. Lows 3-6 C and highs near 14 C.

SUNDAY ... Cloudy and rather muggy, mild to warm with outbreaks of rain possible later in the day (near southeast coasts) in southeasterly winds of 15-30 mph. Lows near 7 C and highs 14-16 C.

MONDAY ... Variable cloud, chance of showers, mild to warm. Lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.

TUESDAY to THURSDAY ... Hazy or misty, some persistent fog likely, mild. Lows 6-9 C and highs 12-16 C. Isolated showers or drizzle, turning to light rain at times.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... This mild and foggy spell could persist but somewhat drier air may create more sunshine later in the week towards the following weekend, with colder nights due to the clearing conditions. The GFS model still has a much colder look than other guidance (and is therefore likely wrong since it is going against the trend) but frosty nights remain quite possible.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, some sunny intervals west and north, periods of light to moderate rain southeast (10-15 mm possible in Kent). Highs generally 13 to 15 C.

TONIGHT ... Misty to foggy, showers ending east, mild. Lows 7-10 C trending to about 4-7 C in Scotland.

OUTLOOK ... Partly cloudy to overcast, milder, showers more isolated and some hazy sunshine at times, highs 14-16 C. Scotland more unsettled and highs 12-14 C. This autumnal spell of rather dull and calm weather could trend more sunny by day, frosty by night towards the following weekend as higher pressure develops over Scotland.


Forecasts for North America

Chilly rain mixed in a few places with wet snow over the Midwest and Great Lakes regions, showers and a few thunderstorms moving across the larger cities of the east coast, where a warm spell will come to an end on cool westerly winds, highs generally about 14 C trending to 5-7 C well inland. Dry and bracing in the southeast with gusty westerly winds, highs near 17 C. Warm and dry over much of the southwest and almost as far north as the Dakotas, but showery across the border regions with rain and mountain snow in the B.C.-Washington mountains, gusty thunderstorms moving inland tonight and reaching eWA-ID during the mid-day period. Rain to showers on the coast, partial clearing and windy (WNW 30-50 mph).

My local weather on Thursday has been very wet, about 50 mm of rain has fallen in almost continual downpours since noon, and temperatures are around 13 C. Thunderstorms are embedded in the front just to the south of here now, but I haven't seen any lightning. (Seattle is getting pounded by this front with hail reported). Expecting a windy and showery day on Friday with some brighter intervals.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Sunday, 21 October, 2012

A quiet spell of misty but otherwise fine autumn weather will dominate this week in both Ireland and most of the U.K., and for that matter, in most of the U.S. -- Canada on the other hand is going to see some active weather. This is my way of saying that today's forecast is not really changed from yesterday's outlook.


Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Cloudy with some brighter intervals and hazy sunshine, and rather muggy, mild to warm with outbreaks of drizzle or light rain possible later in the day (limited in area and most likely near southeast coasts) in southeasterly winds of 15-25 mph and highs 14-16 C (milder in central and west, inland north).

TONIGHT ... Fog patches, mist, patchy drizzle near coasts, mild. Lows 6-8 C.

MONDAY ... Variable cloud, slight chance of showers, mild to warm. Lows near 7 C and highs near 15 or 16 C. Winds E-SE 15-25 mph.

TUESDAY to THURSDAY ... Hazy or misty, some persistent fog likely, mild. Lows 6-9 C and highs 12-16 C. Isolated showers or drizzle, turning to light rain at times near east or south coasts, but largely dry elsewhere. Warmest in the western counties due to the wind direction. Thursday will be transitional as somewhat cooler air arrives from the east, highs 12-14 C.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY ... Not as mild but continued dry under higher pressure, night frosts (lows -2 to +3 C) and highs about 7-10 C. Increasing cloud late in the weekend, showers arriving by Monday and possibly becoming heavy for a part of the week, although another plausible scenario would be a gradual turn from northeast to northwest winds under anticyclonic stratus cloud and near normal temperatures.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy and mild, light rain turning to drizzle over south central and eastern England, some hazy sunshine developing later in parts of west and north, periods of drizzle lingering near east coast. Highs 14 to 16 C. Winds slack at first then SSE 10-20 mph.

TONIGHT ... Misty to foggy, mild. Some persistent drizzle in parts of south and east. Lows 7-10 C trending to about 5-7 C in Scotland.

OUTLOOK ... Partly cloudy to overcast, milder, showers more isolated and some hazy sunshine at times, highs 14-16 C. Scotland more unsettled and highs 12-14 C. This autumnal spell of rather dull and calm weather could trend more sunny by day, frosty by night towards the following weekend as higher pressure develops over Scotland. This cold, dry spell will probably fade to showers and risk of sleet or snow on northern hills by Sunday or Monday,
(28th-29th) then while some northern regions may become quite wet the pattern may remain rather dry across Wales and southern England further from the low in the North Sea. The main uncertainty is how much colder it will turn around Friday, and whether or not this will involve any wintry or mixed showers, or a more bland and drizzly change of a few degrees.


Forecasts for North America

Most of the U.S. will have a pleasant Sunday with more cloud than sunshine in most northern states, highs 12-16 C, but more sunshine across the southern half where temperatures will be pushing back above mid-October normals into the higher 20s. A slowly developing frontal system in the central plains will be largely dry but could set off one or two thunderstorms late today near Omaha and Kansas City. The pattern across southern Canada is more unsettled as strong lows continue to move east in a fast westerly flow, temperatures a bit below seasonal normals for most places, bringing mixed sleety precip to foothill regions in the west and northern parts of the Great Lakes, but cold rain or hail showers lower elevations of the west and southern portions of the Great Lakes. Two tropical systems are trying to get organized and could combine to threaten Florida later in the week; remnants of Rafael are now spinning around in the north central Atlantic held away from Europe by the blocking high that is bringing the mild southeast flow. Eventually this remnant low seems headed for southern Biscay where it could bring mountain snows to northern Spain and the Pyrenees and a spell of stormy weather to lower elevations of France and Spain (this around Friday to weekend).

My local weather on Saturday was cool and unsettled with passing showers, some hail not far away although just rain at my location, and snow above the 500m elevation on the roads up to ski hills around the city (the ski slopes are generally at 1200m so they got their first accumulating snowfalls).

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Tuesday, 23 October, 2012

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Foggy or misty to start, some rather persistent low cloud or fog over parts of east and south, better chances for a brighter mid-day interval further west and where the sun comes out it could become quite warm. Highs generally 13-15 C but potentially 17-19 C in sunshine. Winds rather light but picking up somewhat to ESE 15-25 mph in more exposed locations (inversions may keep valleys calm). You might find it's warmer well up in elevation above the stratus layer because the air is very mild at 500-800m. Where the fog is most persistent, some drizzle will make it a bit damp for drying.

TONIGHT ... Fog or drizzle, very mild. Lows 10-13 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud with the fog and mist slowly lifting, quite warm again in central and western counties as SE winds 20-30 mph succeed in bringing marine layers into the east, so highs near 14 C east and 17 C west.

THURSDAY ... The fog and mist should break up rather quickly if they survive Wednesday night with lows near 7 C, then layers of higher cloud will become broken to overcast allowing some brief sunny breaks, and there could be passing showers that leave just traces of rain in a stronger east wind, highs about 12-14 C.

FRIDAY ... A rather cold start with lows 2-4 C, then a cloudy day in most of the eastern and northern counties with some rather sleety showers in north-east Ulster and north Leinster, winds northeast 20-40 mph adding quite a chill after this warm spell, and highs 6-8 C. Further south and west, a little more sunshine and less chance of showers, highs 8-11 C.

SATURDAY ... This cold spell will quickly get overwhelmed by the return of milder Atlantic air in Ireland (although not in Britain) so expect cloudy skies, a slightly milder feel with lows 2-4 C and isolated frost, highs 9-12 C, winds backing to NW 20-35 mph.

SUNDAY-TUESDAY ... Increasing chances of rain and turning quite windy from the south to southwest as low pressure drops in from the north and loops back northeast, and this could be followed by a fresh shot of colder air on Monday (according to the ECM) although there is also a possibility of the low stalling and bringing on a much milder spell rather quickly from the look of some of today's guidance. That would bring about highs 10-13 C and 20-40 mm rainfall potential in this general period leading up to Halloween and early November, but it will be closer to 5-7 C and 2-5 mms sleety rain in the ECM scenario.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Hazy or misty, very mild, highs 17-21 C in south, 14-17 C further north, some persistent fog or drizzle on hills and near east facing coasts. Winds ESE 20-30 mph.

TONIGHT ... Foggy and very mild, lows 10-13 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Hazy, mild, drizzle at times, brisk east winds, highs 14-17 C, but turning a bit colder afternoon-evening in eastern counties especially north of Lincs.

OUTLOOK ... Colder in stages through Thursday and Friday, showery precip becoming mixed or even wintry on northern hills, highs near sea level 5-8 C by Friday. Showers and some sleet on hills by weekend, turning to a heavy rain late in the weekend and into Monday. Temperatures slowly rising to about 9-10 C, then possibly steady or falling off again especially in the north, some chance of snow for Scotland by about Tuesday 30th.


Forecasts for North America

By any standard the most interesting part of this forecast is the outlook period. From today to about Saturday, the eastern U.S. will be under a warm, dry air mass except close to the Great Lakes where showers and thunderstorms will pass. Highs 24-27 C in this region. Further west, a slow moving cold front will bring a sharp drop in temperatures to western parts of the plains states late tonight and tomorrow, and further east through the week. Temperatures will drop to about 8-10 C with this front. Today, some outbreaks of heavy wet snow are likely across the Rockies and western Canada inland, showers on the coast. This storm is going to plod east for about four days and models are playing with the concept of it phasing into a bomb cyclone with "Sandy" which has now developed over the Caribbean south of Jamaica, northbound for 2-3 days on track for the Bahamas. By the weekend these systems could merge into a powerful bomb cyclone near Cape Hatteras with a landfall possible around Long Island on Tuesday 30th. The range of outcomes includes a track well out to sea with a weaker system forming instead, or a slower development closer to New Jersey-Delaware. In any case, as you can imagine, American based weather forums are approaching the hyperventilation point as these developments slowly unfold. There is some chance of damage and disruption in the New York-New Jersey, Long Island and New England region from about Monday 29th to Thursday 1st of November.

My local weather on Monday was rather bland, cloudy with highs near 10 C and some drizzly rain at present time, as we're on the outer edges of the Wyoming storm. The snow line has retreated up the slopes to about 700m at last look. It may come back down on Tuesday as winds here become more northeasterly.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Wednesday, 24 October, 2012

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Extensive low cloud, fog and mist with the best chance of any mid-day or afternoon clearing (or at least brighter intervals) in the west, as winds continue to flow in from the east to northeast at 15-25 mph. Highs 13-15 C for most and potentially near 17 C where it does clear. Fog and mist returning by late afternoon where it clears. Some light rain as well as the drizzle from fog, 1-2 mm could accumulate in some eastern locations, ground will remain damp or wet in those areas. (also, fog will become dense soon after sunset as a result of the higher humidity)

TONIGHT ... Little change with mild, breezy and foggy conditions for most, lows 8-11 C. Some light rain at times in eastern counties.

THURSDAY ... The fog and mist should break up rather quickly, then layers of higher cloud will become broken to overcast allowing some brief sunny breaks, and there could be passing showers that leave just traces of rain in a stronger east wind, highs about 12-14 C although temperatures could begin to fall off towards 8-10 C in east Ulster and north Leinster.

FRIDAY ... A rather cold start with lows 2-4 C, then a cloudy day in most of the eastern and northern counties with some rather sleety showers in north-east Ulster and north Leinster, winds northeast 20-40 mph adding quite a chill after this warm spell, and highs 6-8 C. Further south and west, a little more sunshine and less chance of showers, highs 8-11 C.

FRIDAY NIGHT ... Although there is potential for frost and lows of -3 to -1 C this may be hit or miss due to persistent low cloud that may keep temperatures higher in some spots, with the chance of fluctuations between frosty and thawing temperatures during the night. Some icy patches are likely and because of the variable conditions this may be more dangerous (if the frost was more widespread everyone would be more aware of it on their journeys). Winds will fall off light or calm in some inland areas but coastal margins will retain northerly breezes of 10-20 mph; this and the marine exposure will keep overnight temperatures near 3-5 C in some coastal areas, so no frost there.

SATURDAY ... This cold spell will quickly get overwhelmed by the return of milder Atlantic air in Ireland (although not in Britain) so expect cloudy skies, rain arriving in north late in the day, a slightly milder feel once the scattered frost is flushed out, highs 9-12 C, winds backing to NW 20-35 mph.

SUNDAY ... Showers or periods of rain (10-15 mm) with moderate SW winds 20-40 mph veering to west and northwest late in the day, lows near 5 C and highs near 11 C but turning colder again by evening.

MONDAY ... Raw and cold with passing showers (1-3 mm), some sleety on higher ground, lows near 2 C and highs near 7 C. Winds northerly 25-35 mph abating somewhat later.

OUTLOOK ... The outlook period is very uncertain now because the models are struggling to establish a future track for "Sandy" -- there are now suggestions that it could turn east before reaching New England and end up becoming part of the picture for Europe around the first of November. In any event, it looks more likely to be unsettled and it could become very wet or stormy depending on how things play out.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Extensive low cloud and fog, breaking in a few spots to hazy brightness perhaps without much sunshine, mild or very mild, drizzle at times, some patchy light rain in East Anglia and north of London, and brisk east winds developing 25-35 mph (higher gusts near east coast), highs 13-17 C, but turning a bit colder afternoon-evening in eastern counties especially north of Lincs.

TONIGHT ... Broken cloud or mist, not as foggy for most but some patchy dense fog in valleys, a bit colder than recent nights, lows 5-7 C.

THURSDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, passing showers in a brisk northeast wind, some sleet or snow developing over higher parts of northern England and Scotland, less likely in Wales except on summit of Snowdon, with highs generally 7-10 C mildest in southwest and Wales, coldest in northeast (readings near 3-5 C on higher slopes).

THURSDAY NIGHT ... Frosty in a few spots, sleety showers or wet snow on hills in north, lows 1-3 C on average.

FRIDAY ... Sunny intervals, isolated sleety or wintry showers mostly near North Sea, winds NNE 20-40 mph, cold. Highs near 7 C on average but could be held to 3-4 C in some northern areas.

FRIDAY NIGHT ... Icy roads and extensive frost with lows -4 to -1 C but a few locations frost-free due to breeze off water or low cloud.

OUTLOOK ... Milder in stages over the weekend, becoming wet from north to south but some heavier rainfalls by Sunday, windy at times, colder again on Monday with mixed precip away from the milder south, and most likely to turn wet and perhaps stormy after that.

Forecasts for North America

In the short term, the pattern is unfolding as discussed yesterday (or whenever that was) ... warm and dry across most of the U.S. especially central plains east to Virginia where temperatures will once again reach the 25-30 C range. It's not very humid with this late summery warm spell. Even in Florida with tropical air streaming in from the northeast, less humid than midsummer but hot enough at 31 C. Much of western Canada is under snowfall of 5-15 cms with further flurries today, strong north winds and -2 C, then in valleys near the west coast a bit milder where it's a cool, damp and cloudy day with highs near 7 C. Outbreaks of rain and thundershowers continue from about Manitoba east to Quebec and across the Great Lakes region in general, ahead of the warmer air which will push in late today in some parts, leading to dense fog.

The big weather story, however, is developing hurricane Sandy (still a tropical storm approaching Jamaica) which the European model continues to predict moving north towards Long Island for an apparently catastrophic landfall with winds in excess of 100 mph possible. This scenario is not yet supported by other models although the difference is one of "phasing" where the other models don't allow the hurricane to join up with the cold front now in the west-central U.S. and predicted to be near the east coast by Sunday. These other models show the hurricane swerving east to the north of Bermuda on Sunday then edging further away or looping around back towards far eastern Canada during the week. But the latest European model continues to show a very deep low (whether it's then a hurricane or extratropical won't matter much) of 935 mbs approaching New York City on Monday. If this verifies, there would be a major weather disaster, for one thing it is full moon on the 29th so there could be exceptional storm surges on the east side of the track (Long Island, CT-RI) much like what happened in the infamous 1938 storm. But this one is closer to NYC and the eye could even go over the city or at least the near eastern suburbs. So this will be the weather story of the next week until perhaps it becomes a confirmed case of danger past (which I hope is true, but the reasoning embedded in the Euro scenario is plausible). Meanwhile "Tony" has formed northeast of Puerto Rico and is heading for the Azores as a rather weak tropical storm.

My local weather on Tuesday was cloudy with sprinkles of light rain, the lawns and some sidewalks here are now covered with wet greasy leaves that have been falling for days in rainy conditions, and it's rather chilly with the high about 9 C locally.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Friday, 26 October, 2012

ALERT for sharp frosts in some inland regions and scattered instances of icy roads developing in particular where roads run close to fog-producing warmer ponds and streams. As the slippery conditions may be hit or miss, drive with caution. Town centres likely too warm for frost, rural areas more likely to see some.

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... A rather cold and cloudy, raw sort of day in most of the eastern and northern counties, with brief sunny intervals, and with some rather sleety showers or drizzle in parts of Leinster fading away by afternoon, winds northeast 20-40 mph adding quite a chill after the mild spell, and highs 6-8 C. Further south and west, cloudy much of the day but with a little more sunshine in the mix by afternoon, and slight chance of showers or drizzle, amounts in all cases trace to 2 mm ... highs for the south 8-11 C.

TONIGHT ... Although there is potential for frost and lows of -3 to -1 C this may be hit or miss due to persistent low cloud that may keep temperatures higher in some spots, with the chance of fluctuations between frosty and thawing temperatures during the night. Some icy patches are likely, especially in valleys or in any fog patches near ponds or streams. Winds will fall off light or calm in some inland areas but coastal margins will retain northerly breezes of 10-20 mph; this and the marine exposure will keep overnight temperatures near 3-5 C in some coastal areas, so no frost there.

SATURDAY ... The colder spell will be gradually erased by the return of milder Atlantic air in Ireland (although not in Britain) so expect cloudy skies, rain arriving in north late in the day, a slightly milder feel once the scattered frost is flushed out, highs 9-12 C, winds backing from N to NW 20-35 mph.

SUNDAY ... Showers or periods of rain (10-15 mm) with moderate to strong SW winds 20-40 mph veering to west and northwest late in the day 35-55 mph at times, morning lows near 5 C and highs near 11 C but turning colder again by evening.

MONDAY ... Raw and cold with passing showers (1-3 mm), but a brighter afternoon should develop, despite some sleety showers mid-day on higher ground, lows near 2 C and highs near 7 C. Winds northerly 25-35 mph abating somewhat later.

TUESDAY ... Increasing cloud, showers to periods of rain, winds becoming moderate SW 20-35 mph, lows near 4 C and highs near 11 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Possibly quite windy or stormy, advance alerts may be needed if models continue this trend ... potential for SW gales 35-55 mph with some higher gusts in Connacht, west Munster ... squally showers and highs near 10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Further unsettled and windy weather gradually settling into more of a bland cloudy and westerly sort of pattern past the first weekend in November, highs generally near or below normal just by a degree or two (so about 9-11 C).


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Sunny intervals, isolated sleety or wintry showers mostly near North Sea, winds ENE backing to NNE 20-40 mph, cold. Highs near 7 C on average but could be held to 3-4 C in some northern areas. Cloud will be more persistent south of the Thames and morning drizzle should eventually fade but could continue in Cornwall and Devon, highs 8-10 C. Better chances for some sunshine in Wales and Cumbria, western Scotland where the flow of modified cold air has to cross higher ground and downslope to sea level. Some strong gusty ENE winds in a few zones where terrain assists such as Peak District and Welsh valleys that run east-west.

TONIGHT ... Icy roads and extensive frost with lows -4 to -1 C but a few locations frost-free due to breeze off water or low cloud. Cloudy and a bit milder in parts of south, 2-4 C.

OUTLOOK ... Milder in stages over the weekend, becoming wet from north to south but some heavier rainfalls by Sunday, windy at times, colder again on Monday with mixed precip away from the milder south, and most likely to turn wet and perhaps stormy after that, similar to Ireland.

Forecasts for North America

The warm air has now been squeezed between the slowly advancing cold front running about Lake Huron to western Tennessee to southeast Texas, and the advancing marine layer from the east that is part of eastern Canada blocking high pressure pushing back against the stalled warm front. This will leave most eastern states in sunshine and 26-30 C highs but extensive low cloud and mist or fog in parts of the northeast, near 18 C. Before we get to the advancing hurricane, the cold front is getting more active with periods of rain and embedded brief thundershowers, then a cold northerly develops behind it with highs 5-8 C. Sunny and near normal temperatures over the inland western U.S. trending to mostly cloudy on the Canadian border and outbreaks of snow or sleet in western Canada except on the west coast where it is drizzly and cool.

Hurricane Sandy will finish with the Bahamas later today and drift north to northeast to reach a position off South Carolina late Saturday. On Sunday it will move past Cape Hatteras. The earlier model consensus discussed in the hurricane thread has somewhat diverged again as of the recent suite of guidance but the most likely scenario remains a landfall Monday to Monday night in New Jersey or Long Island. A very strong storm appears possible with damaging winds and storm surges, flooding rainfalls, and in fact a "billion dollar disaster" was the scenario discussed by one of America's best known forecasters, Chad Myers of CNN. Many "local mets" in the New York and northeast regions seem to agree and we see no reason to doubt this if the models verify, as the depicted central pressure of the storm Monday night is something like 940 mbs and 10 mbs lower than the previous record low for the region (over about 200 years of reliable records). That alone is quite extraordinary, more so if it happens. :eek:

You can expect frequent updates on that U.S. storm in the hurricane thread from the usual suspects.

My local weather, meanwhile, was notably bland and featureless with highs near 10 C, some interesting miniature cb's were visible during a brief clearing of the low cloud, but they never rose up high enough to develop precip.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.


Sunday, 28 October, 2012

Note: You may hear on the news or the forum that a 7.7 mag earthquake struck the coast of British Columbia. Just briefly, this has had only moderate impacts in a few isolated areas, and almost no effects felt where I live in the Vancouver region. Tsunami warnings have been reduced to advisories for one-metre tidal excesses. Full moon is tomorrow, will give the details on Monday morning. Also, unrelated, if you didn't change your clocks last night, you are up an hour earlier than you thought.


Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Showers or periods of rain (10-15 mm) with moderate to strong SW winds 20-40 mph veering to west and northwest late in the day 35-55 mph at times, morning lows near 5 C and highs near 11 C but turning colder again by evening. Winds should ease gradually after mid-day from west to east, and some lines of showers may develop minor squally conditions with hail possible.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, rather cold and raw with winds veering to W, NW and eventually N in the 20-30 mph range mostly, a few spits of sleety rain with temperatures slowly decreasing from 5 to 2 C.

MONDAY ... Raw and cold to start, with passing showers more frequent in eastern counties (1-3 mm), but a brighter afternoon should develop, despite some sleety showers mid-day on higher ground in Ulster and Connacht, with highs near 7 or 8 C. Winds northerly (NNE at times) 25-35 mph abating somewhat later.

TUESDAY ... Increasing cloud, showers to periods of rain, winds becoming moderate SW 20-35 mph, increasing by evening to WSW 40 mph especially near northwest coast, lows near 4 C and highs near 11 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, windy at times, showers or periods of rain, with lows near 5 C and highs near 10 C. Winds SW 25-45 mph with some higher gusts in Connacht, west Munster ... squally showers may develop with 3-5 mm on average, and highs near 10 C.

THURSDAY ... Windy or even stormy in some northern coastal regions, squally and blustery showers, some with hail and thunder. Winds from WSW to WNW in the range of 35-55 mph with possible gusts to 70 mph in exposed northwest locations. Lows near 5 C and highs 9-11 C. Winds veering more to the NNW by evening.

FRIDAY ... Mostly cloudy, showers, lows near 5 C and highs near 10 C. Not as windy and somewhat brighter.

OUTLOOK ... Further unsettled and windy weather gradually settling into more of a bland cloudy and westerly sort of pattern past the first weekend in November, highs generally near or below normal just by a degree or two (so about 9-11 C).


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Cloudy with showers developing, some squally with hail later, winds increasing to WSW 35-55 mph across the south, veering afternoon and evening in Wales, northwest England and Scotland to NNW 20-40 mph, further showers, highs today near 11 C south, 7 C north.

TONIGHT ... Gradual clearing west inland, some coastal sleety showers, but more organized bands of rain in east near North Sea. Lows 2-4 C.

MONDAY ... Becoming much colder with a stiff northerly wind and sleety showers especially off the North Sea. Some brighter intervals in the west. Winds northerly 20-40 mph, highs 5-8 C.

TUESDAY ... Cold to start, turning milder, rain spreading in, highs near 10 C.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY ... A windy to stormy period likely near the midnight hour of Hallowe'en into All Saints Day. Winds from west veering northwest could reach 50-70 mph in places by Thursday, highs both days near 10 C, frequent showers and some hail.

OUTLOOK ... See Ireland forecast, same general trend.


Forecasts for North America

Rain will break out along the east coast with a rising northeast wind. Stormy to hurricane conditions will follow on Monday. Today won't be too bad with highs near 15 C and winds NE 20-40 mph. Tomorrow and Tuesday could be a very dire period especially around greater New York City. Cold and windy further west, some snow developing on higher terrain in PA and WV. This will also intensify into a major snowstorm in some parts by Monday night.

Clear and cool east-central U.S. north into western Great Lakes. Cloud from the hurricane may back into this region tonight. Highs 5-8 C trending to near 15 C on the central Gulf coast. Sunny and mild to warm further west. Rain spreading into coastal B.C. to showers inland, cold and dry east of the Rockies but some snow later in foothills.

My local weather has been dismal on Saturday, periods of rain, chilly, 9-10 C. As noted, a 7.7 mag earthquake rocked the north coast about 300 miles northwest of my location; I felt nothing (at 0304z or 8:04 pm Saturday local time). Damage reports are moderate or slight, only a small tsunami has been reported. Shaking or swaying in the zone was moderate rather than violent.

Have to wonder if the tidal imbalances in eastern North America might set off a more significant earthquake somewhere around the Atlantic basin in the next day or two.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Tuesday, 30 October, 2012

ADVANCE ALERT: A period of very windy weather is expected late Thursday into early Friday, W-NW 40 mph gusts to 60 mph are possible in the northwest and 30-50 mph in other regions, and there could be a stronger interval of gusty west winds on Saturday.

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Some weak sunshine through increasing high cloud for the south, more overcast to start off the day in the north with showers building up to periods of rain, moving south but remaining dry near the south coast at least until quite late in the day ... winds becoming moderate SW 20-35 mph, increasing by evening to WSW 40 mph especially near northwest coast, and highs near 11 C. Rainfalls 5-10 mm north to 1-3 mm south.

TONIGHT ... Windy with showers, winds SW 25-45 mph, lows near 5 C. Further rainfalls about 5-10 mm.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, windy at times, showers or periods of rain, and highs near 10 C. Winds SW 25-45 mph veering to westerly then falling off to 15-30 mph WNW, with some higher gusts during the frontal passage ... squally showers including some hail and thunder may develop with 3-5 mm on average, and highs near 10 C. Turning colder when winds shift more northwesterly later afternoon or evening.

THURSDAY ... Generally breezy and unsettled with a few showers during the day, becoming windy or even stormy in some northern coastal regions by late afternoon or evening, squally and blustery showers then developing, some with hail and thunder. Winds SW 20-30 mph then increasing to WSW veering to WNW in the range of 35-55 mph with possible gusts to 60 mph in exposed northwest locations. Lows 2 to 5 C (morning frost is possible inland east) and highs 9-11 C. Winds veering more to the NNW by evening in Connacht.

FRIDAY ... Mostly cloudy, showers, lows 2 to 5 C and highs 8 to 10 C. An interval of very strong winds during the overnight and morning hours should abate back to moderate (NW 30-50 mph at first, then 15-30 mph later) and following some rain it should clear up or become somewhat brighter.

SATURDAY ... Windy and cold with frequent hail or sleet showers, W-NW winds as strong as 40-60 mph in north, 30-50 mph south, some sunny intervals eastern counties ... lows 2-4 C and highs 7-9 C. The wind intensity is stronger on some models than others, so this remains to be clarified.

SUNDAY ... Continued breezy and cold, hail showers possible. Lows 1-3 C and highs 7-9 C. Some chance of snow developing on northern hills.

MONDAY ... Cold and unsettled, mixed rain and snow showers possible in higher parts of north and a touch of snow on any higher ground, highs generally 4-6 C. North to northeast winds 15-30 mph.

OUTLOOK ... Stronger winds should abate for part of the week at least in a cold northerly flow, slight frosts likely with highs 6-8 C. There may be a somewhat milder easterly flow after a while.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Some sunshine in south-central regions, increasing cloud later ... cloudy with outbreaks of light rain further north, moderate SW winds becoming strong at times later. Highs near 10 C.

TONIGHT ... Windy with showers, lows near 6 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Windy and squally, hail or thunder ... highs near 10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Frequently windy in a cold, unsettled northwest flow, very strong winds at times especially in Scotland and northern England. Highs generally near 8 C south to 5 C north. Snow possible at times on hills.

Forecasts for North America

Heavy rain will move northwest towards the Great Lakes although "Sandy" is slowly weakening inland, much of its major damage is now done. The storm zone on the east coast will have blustery and rather cold weather with south to southwest winds 30-50 mph and highs near 10 C. Higher than normal tidal levels will continue but the worst of the storm surges has come and gone -- many rescues and some recovery operations will probably come to light after daybreak, as most of the early news has concentrated on known situations closer to large cities where media have access. The situation in parts of Long Island and coastal New Jersey sounds rather dire at this point but details are not fully known yet (thousands may be stranded and in harm's way although very high water levels should recede after the secondary high tides this morning).

This coastal rain trends to heavy snow and strong NW winds over the mountains of PA, MD and WV. It would be somewhat milder in coastal New England, about 15 C. The milder Atlantic air will push into parts of the eastern Great Lakes with highs 12-14 C and occasional rain, with some of the heavier rain west of a trough from about Pittsburgh north to Toronto and Sudbury ON, this rain could mix with sleet or hail and winds to the west of that will be northeast 30-50 mph with highs falling off to about 2-4 C around Lake Huron and Lake Michigan.

West of the storm's extensive cloud shield, the Midwest and central plains will be clear and seasonable, trending to warmer than average in the high plains and Rockies, at least ahead of an advancing cold front slicing through Montana and Wyoming. Behind that, rain and snow showers will develop. The warmest weather will be in the southwest and west Texas with highs to about 25 C.

My local weather on Monday was variable, some rain in the morning, some sunny breaks by afternoon, and the high was about 13 C.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Wednesday, 31 October, 2012

ALERT for strong winds in some parts of the east and south this morning during the passage of two frontal troughs. ADVANCE ALERT for periods of strong winds late Thursday and early Friday, as well as ongoing icy road conditions each night most likely in sheltered rural spots well inland.

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Rain with gusty SW winds will move rapidly east in two waves, Connacht and west Ulster already clearing behind these fronts, but other regions will see them soon with gusts to 60 km/hr or higher. Rain briefly heavy and squally, and with falling leaves blowing around, reduced visibility at times ... gradual clearing will follow with some nice sunny intervals mid-day or afternoon, isolated showers creeping back onto west coast, limited extent but one or two could have hail with them ... highs today near 10 C and rainfall amounts 7-12 mm.

TONIGHT ... The evening should be chilly but not too windy and dry in most places, brief showers in a few others. Relatively clear skies except for cloudy intervals in the northwest where a few sleety showers could develop leaving small amounts of snow on higher summits. Frosty for some with icy roads possible especially in sheltered spots well inland. Lows -3 to +2 C higher values in urban areas and near west, north coasts.

THURSDAY ... Generally breezy and unsettled with a few showers during the day, becoming windy or even stormy in some northern coastal regions by late afternoon or evening, squally and blustery showers then developing, some with hail and thunder. Winds SW 30-50 km/hr then increasing to WSW veering to WNW in the range of 70-90 km/hr with possible gusts to 110 km/hr in exposed northwest locations. Lows 2 to 5 C (morning frost is possible inland east) and highs 9-11 C. Winds veering more to the NNW by evening in Connacht. The overnight period could be quite stormy with strong NW winds and high waves developing west coast, slight storm surge potential for Galway and Donegal Bays (minor overtopping of seawalls possible).

FRIDAY ... Mostly cloudy, showers, lows 2 to 5 C and highs 8 to 10 C. An interval of very strong winds during the overnight and morning hours should abate back to moderate (NW 50-80 km/hr, then 30-50 km/hr later) and following some rain it should clear up or become somewhat brighter. Total rainfalls about 10 mm with some potential for hail or snow to accumulate on higher slopes in north.

SATURDAY ... Windy and cold with frequent hail or sleet showers, W-NW winds as strong as 70-100 km/hr in north, 50-80 km/hr south, some sunny intervals eastern counties ... lows 2-4 C and highs 7-9 C. The wind speeds could be either a bit higher or a bit lower as guidance is scattered.

SUNDAY ... Continued breezy and cold, hail showers possible. Lows -2 to 3 C with some icy roads around sunrise, and highs only 6-9 C. Some chance of snow developing on northern hills and sleet or mixed precipitation in some locations closer to sea level.

MONDAY ... Cold and unsettled, mixed rain and snow showers possible in higher parts of north and a touch of snow on any higher ground, lows around zero C and highs generally 4-7 C. North to northeast winds 30-50 km/hr.

OUTLOOK ... Stronger winds should abate for part of the week at least in a cold northerly flow, slight frosts likely with highs 6-8 C. There may be a somewhat milder interval after a while, guidance has shifted to more of a westerly theme allowing the Atlantic back in slowly.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Windy with squally showers developing, some with hail and thunder, highs near 12 C south and 9 C north. Winds SW 40-70 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Showers ending, cold, some clearing later ... lows 1-3 C.

THURSDAY ... Sunny intervals, showers developing, sleety rain or snow on hills in north by later in the afternoon and evening. Highs 8-10 C.

FRIDAY ... Windy at times, very windy in Wales and north-central England, some gusts to 120 km/hr.

OUTLOOK ... Cold and unsettled, some snow possible as well as sleet or chilly rain as highs only 5-8 C.


Forecasts for North America

Rain will spread northeast into Quebec and it will continue over most regions already dealing with aftermath of Sandy. Thunderstorms will move through New Brunswick and fade out later. Rather mild ahead of the remnant low of Sandy which is now in the Toronto region. Winds have fallen off to light around the central circulation but they remain gusty further out, in the range of 40-80 km/hr. Heavy snow will taper to flurries over the WV-VA-NC mountains. Clear and turning warmer immediately west of the cloud shield of the remnant low, warm as far west as Denver and into the southwest states, highs 18-23 C. Heavy rain moving into British Columbia and Washington state. Mountain snows, then cold and clearing in the Canadian prairies and northern plains states, behind a weak frontal wave in Minnesota that will rotate around the outer edges of former "Sandy" to develop into a low this weekend near Nova Scotia. This weak low brings sleety light rain turning to wet snow.

My local weather on Tuesday was overcast with some rain at times, foggy in the morning, high of about 12 C. Expecting 50 mm of rain here today.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Thursday, 1 November, 2012

Astronomy note: The Moon makes its monthly pass by Jupiter which should appear just above the Moon's north pole high in the southern sky where clear, at about 0100h. This all unfolds above the familiar pattern of Orion. Views of this will be more likely in the south and east, and between scudding clouds -- dress very warmly if taking a look.

ALERT for periods of strong winds late Thursday and early Friday, also during Saturday, strongest gusts in Connacht and west Ulster, locally to 110 km/hr (65 mph) as well as ongoing icy road conditions each night most likely in sheltered rural spots well inland.

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Generally breezy and unsettled with a few showers during the day, more frequent in the west and north, then becoming windy or even stormy in some northern coastal regions by late afternoon or evening, more squally and blustery showers then developing, some with hail and thunder. Snow on northern hills. Winds W 30-50 km/hr increasing to WNW in the range of 70-90 km/hr with possible gusts to 110 km/hr in exposed northwest locations. Highs 7-10 C. Rainfall amounts (or equivalent) 3-5 mm.

TONIGHT ... Very windy especially northern half of country, hail showers widespread, some snow accumulations on northern hills, winds WNW 50-80 km/hr with some gusts to 110 km/hr in exposed locations, some large waves possible off northwest coast, high tides in Galway and Donegal Bays running almost a metre above tide tables with minor overtopping of seawalls possible. Somewhat less blustery across the south, in particular around Waterford and Wexford where peak winds of about 30-50 km/hr with gusts to 70 likely. Overnight lows generally 1-3 C with wind chills near -5 C. A few icy patches but widespread slippery roads likely in north and west mainly due to the ongoing hail showers.

FRIDAY ... Mostly cloudy, showers of rain, hail with thunder, snow on northern hills ... highs eventually 7 to 10 C but could be held to 4-6 C in parts of north. The interval of very strong winds during the early morning hours should abate back to moderate (NW 50-80 km/hr, then 30-50 km/hr later). Total rainfalls about 10 mm with some potential for hail or snow to accumulate to 3 cms on higher slopes in north.

FRIDAY NIGHT ... Some limited clearing as hail showers become less frequent, frost developing, icy sections on roads. Lows -3 to +2 C. Continued rather windy near coasts. Snow possible on northern hills.

SATURDAY ... Windy and cold with frequent hail or sleet showers, W-NW winds as strong as 70-100 km/hr in north, 50-80 km/hr south, some sunny intervals eastern counties with highs 7-9 C.

SUNDAY ... Continued breezy and cold, winds veering to west then north in the 30-60 km/hr range mostly, frequent hail showers possible, some risk of snow mixing in especially above 400m elevations. Morning lows -2 to 3 C with some icy roads around sunrise, and highs only 6-9 C.

MONDAY ... Cold and unsettled, mixed rain and snow showers possible in higher parts of north and a touch of snow on any higher ground, lows around zero C and highs generally 4-7 C. North to northeast winds 30-50 km/hr.

OUTLOOK ... Stronger winds should abate for part of the week at least in a cold northerly flow, slight frosts likely with highs 6-8 C. There may be a somewhat milder interval after a while, in more of a westerly regime allowing the Atlantic back in with highs to about 10-12 C. The cold unsettled pattern could then reload around the following weekend (10th-11th).


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Showers developing, some brief sunny intervals mid-day, sleety rain or snow on hills in north by later in the afternoon and evening. Moderate southwest to west winds for most, 40-60 km/hr. Highs 8-10 C.

TONIGHT ... Becoming very windy especially Wales and northern England, southwest Scotland and parts of Hebrides, winds west to northwest 70-100 km/hr. Also quite windy elsewhere in the 50-70 km/hr range. Widespread cold rain or hail showers with snow developing on higher slopes in Wales, Cumbria and Scotland. Lows 2-4 C and some slippery roads developing.

FRIDAY ... Windy at times, very windy in Wales and north-central England, some gusts to 110 km/hr with pelting hail showers. The south will be marginally better with rain and hail showers, winds gusting to 90 km/hr.

SATURDAY ... Windy and cold, frequent rain or hail showers. Lows 2-4 C and highs 7-9 C. Westerly winds gusting to 80 km/hr stronger gusts at times in west and north.

OUTLOOK ... Cold and unsettled Sunday to about Tuesday, some snow possible as well as sleet or chilly rain as highs only 5-8 C. Milder by end of week, reload of the cold and windy pattern after that.


Forecasts for North America

Widespread light rain now over eastern Canada and northeast U.S., the mountain snows continuing in a few spots, winds more moderate than previous days and turning colder in parts of Ontario, New York state. Outbreaks of light rain or sleet in western Great Lakes as cold, dry air moves slowly south into parts of upper Midwest, northern plains from Canadian prairies, highs generally -4 to -1 C in this air mass. Clear and mild to warm further south especially Arizona to Texas where highs in 20s. Rain on west coast trending to mountain snows.

My local weather on Wednesday was mild and wet, highs near 14 C. Further rain is expected before partial clearing late today.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Saturday, 3 November, 2012

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for patchy freezing fog and icy roads in some parts of inland south this morning, strong winds developing later on west coast, and upland snow developing overnight and Sunday. These will all be rather limited hazards by area but travel with caution, more widespread hail showers are also possible especially in western regions.

TODAY ... Some patchy freezing fog and icy roads could be encountered north of Cork (city) due to trapped cold air in valleys, more generally, bceoming windy and feeling rather cold with frequent hail or rain showers in western counties where SW winds will be as strong as 70-100 km/hr, by contrast sunny intervals in eastern counties but showers or periods of rain to follow late in the day; sleet or snow on hills, some heavy falls at summit levels, with highs 7-9 C near sea level and 3-6 C on higher slopes. Precip amounts (liquid equivalent) about 15 mm on average, some heavier amounts in west.

TONIGHT ... Snow developing on slopes above 300m could drop lower towards morning, otherwise sleet or light rain, not as windy, as low pressure drifts into Connacht, winds falling off to S-SW 10-20 mph and then calm near the low centre, lows generally 3-5 C but could fall to freezing or -2 C in some parts of the inland south.

SUNDAY ... Continued breezy and rather cold, winds becoming east to northeast from north to south during the day, a cold rain for some near sea level, with brief brighter intervals, hail or sleet showers possible, some risk of snow mixing in especially above 300m elevations, some icy roads around sunrise, roads remaining slippery in some higher rural areas, and highs near sea level only 6-9 C ... it could stay as cold as 2-5 C at higher elevations. Snowfall potential at higher elevations 10-15 cms as liquid equivalent of 15 mms rain could fall near sea level.

MONDAY ... Cold and unsettled, mixed rain and snow showers possible in higher parts of north and a touch of snow on any higher ground, lows around zero C and highs generally 5-8 C. North to northeast winds 30-50 km/hr.

TUESDAY ... After a frosty start inland, becoming milder, some sunshine with variable cloud, rain arriving later in northwest, as winds become NW then W 30-50 km/hr. Lows -2 to +3 C and highs 8-11 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Breezy to windy and mild with periods of rain north, showers south, lows near 5 C and highs near 12 C.

OUTLOOK ... Windy, mild, but possibly turning sharply colder around the weekend of 10th-11th as flow becomes more northwesterly again. Some remnants of the energy of "Sandy" may be driving this frontal system. Longer range outlook continues to indicate very mild weather in second half of November.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Breezy then becoming windy and rather cold, frequent rain or hail showers. Lows 2-4 C and highs 7-9 C. Westerly winds gusting to 60 km/hr stronger gusts at times in west and north. Heavy wet snow may develop on hills in Wales and Cumbria, parts of Scotland.

TONIGHT ... Windy with outbreaks of rain, trending to sleet and snow on higher slopes. Cold, lows about 3-5 C. Winds SW 40-70 km/hr.

SUNDAY ... Periods of rain and windy across the south, snow on hills, sleet or wet snow developing at lower elevations in Wales and central England, variable cloud and mixed wintry showers for Scotland. Highs near 10 C in southeast, 5-7 C central and north.

MONDAY ... Cloudy, wintry showers, cold. Lows near 2 C and highs near 7 C.

OUTLOOK ... Frosty to start Tuesday then milder to end of week, reload of the cold and windy pattern likely after that, followed by more mild weather.


Forecasts for North America

Little change with widespread outbreaks of light rain east, chilly, mixing with sleet or wet snow in parts of Great Lakes and Midwest ... sunny and mild to warm across most of the southern states extending into parts of the central plains states ... clear and cold across much of the prairies and northern plains ... snow in the western mountains and rain on the west coast, fog and rather mild. Becoming very windy later on the B.C. and Alaska coasts.

My local weather on Friday was cloudy with a bit of rain at times but mostly dry with highs near 10 C. Heavy rain is now moving in.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Monday, 5 November, 2012

Forecasts for Ireland

MONDAY ... Patches of frost and freezing fog will make some roads slippery in various inland regions this morning, but the sun will be out around most of the coastal regions except east Ulster where rain or hail showers will be more frequent, trending to snow on high ground. There could be some isolated mixed showers in other parts of Ireland later, but many places will stay dry and sunny to partly cloudy, with the highs generally 7 to 10 C in a moderate northerly wind of 30-50 km/hr. Rainfall equivalents about 2-5 mm in parts of Ulster, otherwise largely zero to 2 mm.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, cold, frost and fog patches, lows -3 to +2 C. Some slippery roads are likely outside larger towns and cities and away from the outer coast which could stay a bit milder especially in the west.

TUESDAY ... After a frosty start inland, becoming milder, some sunshine with variable cloud, rain arriving later in northwest, as winds become NW then W 30-50 km/hr. Lows -2 to +3 C and highs 8-11 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Breezy to windy and mild with periods of rain north, showers south, lows near 5 C and highs near 12 C.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, mild, lows near 4 C and highs near 12 C.

FRIDAY ... Increasing cloud, showers or periods of rain developing, lows about 5 C and highs 10-12 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Unsettled and rather mild on Saturday, turning colder on Sunday, mixed showers in north and west on higher ground. Highs 10-12 C on Saturday and 7-9 C on Sunday.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The models at present are fairly much in agreement that the east coast U.S. storm expected later this week will move gradually across the Atlantic but will veer far enough north, despite being rather intense, that the effects on Ireland appear moderate rather than strong -- this could change but so far there is no strong indication of a severe storm outcome. Beyond that event expected around Tuesday 13th (at the new moon) the pattern appears rather mild but more settled.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Cloudy although some sunshine developing in north-central regions, wintry showers across parts of the south, pockets of very dense freezing fog and severe frost in northeast England and Scotland may be slow to dissipate. Generally quite cold. Highs 6-9 C but may remain 2-5 C in some eastern valleys.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, isolated wintry showers, cold with a sharp frost developing, fog in some valleys becoming freezing fog, slippery roads rather widespread. Lows -5 to +2 C with mildest readings in west coast and greater London regions.

TUESDAY ... Milder especially in western regions, moderate NW winds, some light rain spreading into western Scotland later afternoon. Highs 6-9 C east to 10-12 C west.

WEDNESDAY ... Showers, mild and windy. Highs near 12 C.

OUTLOOK ... Similar to Ireland as per above forecasts. Northern Scotland could become very windy at times over the weekend and around the 13th and 14th.

Forecasts for North America

With the presidential election on Tuesday in the U.S., here's a brief look at the next two days in general. Western regions mild and dry, quite warm for time of year, rain spreading into WA (and western Canada) on Tuesday. A strong chinook for Montana and Alberta. Highs could reach 15 C. A weak disturbance spreading light rain southeast from Missouri today will develop into a stronger rainstorm for the southeast states on Tuesday. Warm and dry today in Florida but becoming stormy there tomorrow. Cool and dry both days on the east coast and inland northeast with just a few isolated flurries today near the Great Lakes in a cold northerly flow of about 15-25 mph. Highs both days around 4-7 C inland and 8-12 C on the coast. The only part of the country likely to see weather disruptions of voting might be the states of Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina which are not considered to be "in play" but northern-central Florida severe storms could influence the outcome in that state. Meanwhile, the storm system over the southeast on Tuesday will move north and create a "nor'easter" for the storm-ravaged northeast, winds appear more moderate than strong but it will be quite chilly and sleet or snow could develop some distance inland from the coast. This storm will probably last into Thursday before tracking northeast into Nova Scotia and then Newfoundland later in the week.

My local weather on Sunday was foggy with light rain at times, and very mild, highs near 14 C. Expecting some hazy sunshine and very mild on Monday.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Wednesday, 7 November, 2012


Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Breezy to windy and mild, winds WSW 40-60 km/hr, with periods of light rain north and west, turning more to showers south and east, and highs 10 to 12 C. Rainfalls generally 3-5 mm.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy to overcast, showers ending, mild, lows 4-7 C.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy with just patchy drizzle in north and west near coasts, mild, highs near 12 C.

FRIDAY ... Increasing cloud, showers or periods of rain developing, lows about 5 C and highs 10-12 C.

SATURDAY ... A rather mild overnight period (lows 5-7 C) will be followed by mostly cloudy, breezy and turning colder in stages, with highest temperatures 9-10 C likely to be early in the day as readings fall slightly through the afternoon in westerly to northwesterly winds of 30-50 km/hr and frequent showers, some with hail and thunder

SUNDAY ... Patchy and isolated frost (lows -1 to +3 C) will be followed by a relatively dry day with isolated showers, some sunshine, then increasing cloud and strengthening SW winds by evening, periods of rain.

MONDAY ... Breezy to windy with periods of rain, winds SW 40-70 km/hr, lows near 7 C and highs near 11 C.

TUESDAY ... Windy with showers, moderate rather than strong winds as it still appears likely, gusting to perhaps 80 km/hr. Highs near 10 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Unsettled, near normal to mild temperatures.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Showers developing later, mild and windy. Highs 10 to 12 C.

TONIGHT ... A few showers, breezy, mild, lows 5-8 C.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, mild. Highs near 12 C.

OUTLOOK ... Similar to Ireland as per above forecasts. Northern Scotland could become very windy at times over the weekend and around the 13th and 14th.

Forecasts for North America

Raw and unpleasant for most of the northeast with coastal rain, strong E to NE winds gusting to 45 mph and inland sleet, snow. Highs only 4-7 C coast and 1-3 C inland. The cool, dry air mass further north will provide some limited sunshine to parts of the Great Lakes region in near-freezing temperatures and some flurries in east winds coming off the lower Great Lakes. Clear and cool to the west of a secondary frontal band of sleet and wet snow in the Ohio valley, trending to warm and dry further west, in fact record warmth could spread out of the desert regions towards the central plains states (western half of KS-OK). A chinook will blast across parts of the Montana-Alberta border regions but it will be quickly followed by colder weather and snow will develop north of Calgary where the chinook will not set in. Meanwhile, clearing with isolated showers or flurries near the west coast in a colder northeast flow out of strong arctic high pressure located well to the north over Yukon and Alaska.

My local weather on Tuesday was cloudy with occasional rain, clearing during the evening, and turning a bit colder, after an early high near 10 C.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Friday, 9 November, 2012

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Periods of rain (10-20 mm) moving through east Ulster and Leinster this morning, clearing then followed by isolated showers ... further west this clearing has already begun and the showers will arrive about mid-day in generally partly cloudy skies, continued mild, winds SSW 30-50 km/hr veering more to WSW by afternoon, and highs 10-12 C.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, a few showers, some with hail or sleet on higher ground. Lows generally 3-5 C but could fall to near freezing in a few parts of the inland north leading to patchy frost and icy or slippery roads in a few locations. Winds WSW 20-40 km/hr on average, gusty in exposed coastal locations.

SATURDAY ... Mostly cloudy, breezy and where it warms at all during the morning hours, most likely southeast, then turning colder in stages, with highest temperatures 9-10 C (could be 5-7 C in parts of north) likely to be early in the day as readings fall through the afternoon in westerly to northwesterly winds of 30-50 km/hr and frequent showers, some with hail and thunder, some falls of snow possible on hills in Connacht and west Ulster. Wintry showers may continue in the north past midnight before a general clearing sets in, but further south most of the night may become clear.

SUNDAY ... Patchy and isolated frost (lows -1 to +3 C) will be followed by a relatively dry day with isolated showers, some sunshine, highs 8-10 C, then increasing cloud and strengthening SW winds by evening, periods of rain into Monday morning.

MONDAY ... Breezy to windy with periods of rain, winds SW 40-70 km/hr, lows near 7 C and highs near 11 C. Rainfalls 10-20 mm.

TUESDAY ... Windy with showers or periods of rain, 15-25 mm potential, moderate S-SW winds 40-70 km/hr. Lows near 7 C and highs 10-12 C.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY ... Probably unsettled most of the time with chance of a steady rainfall around Thursday, continued rather mild, highs 8-10 C, only a slight chance of frost.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... There should be a dry interval with continued mild daytime temperatures, frost at night, then trending to windy, unsettled and mild towards the last week of November. If the 14-16 day GFS outlook maps were correct, it could become very windy (confidence in this is low at this early stage).

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Increasing cloud east, showers or periods of rain already in western regions moving east to begin as late as mid-afternoon in London region, windy (SW 50-80 km/hr) and mild, highs 11-13 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain to showers, clearing later in parts of Scotland, northwest England and north Wales, lows 5-8 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Windy especially late Saturday, turning colder in stages with mixed wintry showers developing across west and north, sunny intervals more frequent east and south. Highs near 9 C on Saturday and Sunday, some scattered frost developing Sunday morning.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Similar to Ireland as per above forecasts. Northern Scotland could become very windy at times around the 13th and 14th. Rainfall totals likely to be considerably above normal in north and west, trending to near normal in the southeast.

Forecasts for North America

The nor'easter will now rapidly evolve into a windstorm for eastern Canada as it tracks into Labrador, most of its rainfall should sweep east of Newfoundland by tonight with mixed wintry showers developing in a brisk westerly gusting to 120 km/hr. The storm-ravaged northeast will finally catch a break with partly cloudy and somewhat milder weather and milder conditions ahead for the weekend. This mild air (highs 17-23 C) is streaming north ahead of a developing Wyoming storm system that will spread 20-40 cm of snow into Montana, North Dakota and the southern parts of the Canadian prairies. The west coast and northern prairies are under clear, cold high pressure although it is much colder inland (near -15 C) than on the coast (near 5 C). My local weather on Thursday was in fact sunny with a high near 6 C and it is clear and frosty out now at quarter to midnight.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.


Sunday, 11 November, 2012

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Isolated wintry showers, frost and fog patches, with some icy sections of road, will give way to a relatively dry day with some sunshine, highs 8-10 C, then increasing cloud and strengthening SW winds by evening, periods of rain into Monday morning. Not very windy except near north coast where W backing SW 30-50 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Windy and mild with 10-20 mm of rain, winds SW 30-50 km/hr, lows 5-8 C.

MONDAY ... Breezy to windy with periods of rain, winds SW 40-70 km/hr, and highs near 11 C. Further rainfalls 10-20 mm.

TUESDAY ... Windy with showers or periods of rain, 15-25 mm potential, moderate S-SW winds dropping off to light. Lows near 7 C and highs 12-14 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Rain becoming drizzly with fog developing, light south to southeast winds, turning slightly colder in eastern counties, lows 5-7 C and highs 8-11 C mildest near southwest coast.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, mostly dry, cool. Slight risk of frost, lows -1 to +3 C and highs 7-9 C.

FRIDAY ... Increasing cloud, showers or periods of rain, lows 0-3 C and highs near 10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Unsettled, mild, becoming rather windy at times.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Partly cloudy, westerly breezes (stronger in north) with some isolated showers continuing north and east, wintry on higher ground. Highs 9-11 C south to 5-8 C north.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals east, cloudy west with rain arriving by morning, winds increasing to SW 40-60 km/hr. Lows 2-5 C east, 5-8 C west.

MONDAY ... Windy with periods of rain, highs near 10 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Unsettled, milder, some periods of rain, similar to Ireland in longer term. Some severe frosts likely around Thursday in southeast, persistent dense fog may develop there.

Forecasts for North America

Heavy snow (20-40 cms) continuing to mid-day across southern Manitoba and nearby parts of SK, ND and MT, and severe freezing rain in parts of eastern North Dakota, northern Minnesota, ahead of much warmer air moving north with rain and fog in parts of the northern plains and Midwest, heavy or severe storms which hit Kansas on Saturday will be re-developing along cold front mid-day from Iowa to Arkansas. Very mild air will push steadily into the northeast states and lower Great Lakes regions, bringing highs up to 15-20 C. Even warmer air will cover the southeast and bring highs of 20-25 C. Windy and turning colder in the central plains states, strong N-NW winds, highs 3-7 C. The west coast will see variable cloud and showers while clear, cold air continues to cover the inland parts of B.C., northern Alberta and Saskatchewan, with outbreaks of snow in parts of central B.C.

My local weather on Saturday was sunny and cool with a high of 6 C, frost overnight, expecting cloud and sleet turning to rain on Sunday.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Tuesday, 13 November, 2012

New moon occurs late today (2209h) and there will be a total eclipse of the Sun in parts of northern Australia and the nearby Pacific. This is a perigeean new moon so expect high tides to run a bit above normal on the south coast in particular.

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Windy and very mild with showers or periods of rain, spreading south and becoming rather heavy in parts of the west this morning, 15-30 mm potential with heaviest falls around west Munster and Connacht, moderate SSW winds 30-50 km/hr dropping off to 20-40 km/hr, highs 13-15 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain continuing in a steady 20-30 km/hr south wind, foggy, very mild, lows 8-11 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Rain becoming drizzly with fog developing, light south to southeast winds, turning slightly colder in eastern counties but remaining very mild further west, with highs 9-13 C mildest near southwest coast.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, mostly dry, apart from some lingering drizzle near northern coasts, cooler. Slight risk of frost, lows -1 to +3 C and highs 7-9 C.

FRIDAY ... Increasing cloud, showers or periods of rain, lows 0-3 C and highs near 10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Partly cloudy on Saturday with isolated showers, mild, highs near 11 C. Unsettled, mild, becoming rather windy at times Sunday and Monday, still no model consensus on a strong wind event and hints that this may develop a bit later in the week, so stay tuned on the details, but the week seems likely to be generally windy and unsettled. As of the latest model run, the UK model seems most aggressive on development for Sunday, the consensus of leading models would suggest SW winds of 40-70 km/hr and possibly stronger mid-week. These details may change as we get a clearer indication of how this system is developing near Bermuda in the next 36 hours, on its way into the main jet stream across the Atlantic.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, showers or periods of rain, highs 11-14C.

TONIGHT ... Showers or periods of rain, mild, lows 7-10 C.

WEDNESDAY ... A bit colder in parts of the southeast as rain or drizzle continue, foggy. Highs near 11 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... similar to Ireland in longer term. Some severe frosts likely around Thursday in southeast, persistent dense fog may develop there. The possible Sunday-Monday wind event would affect mainly western Scotland and could miss southern England altogether.


Forecasts for North America

Mild with rain in New England and eastern Canada, turning dry and cool (5-7 C) further west across the Great Lakes with extensive cloud. Sunny intervals and cold across snow-covered northern plains and prairies, highs near -5 C. Warm and dry across the southwest and south central U.S., and showery on the west coast, near normal temperatures. My local weather on Monday was drizzly and foggy and somewhat milder with a high near 8 C.

The forum has an active thread to discuss the Sunday-Monday storm potential, check in for updates through the day.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Thursday, 15 November, 2012

ALERT continued for dense fog which should partially clear during the day but then may return in many places tonight with once again the risk of near-zero visibilities in valleys and patchy frost causing a few areas of "black ice" towards sunrise. ADVANCE ALERT for possible strong winds and locally heavy rainfalls Sunday night, confidence is moderate on this and the event may either develop later or become a two-part strong wind episode.

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Morning fog and mist, some brighter intervals mid-day although it may stay rather misty over hills, patchy rain in west Connacht giving 3-5 mm to some parts of west then central counties before dissipating ... light winds and rather chilly unless the sun breaks through, highs 6-9 C.

TONIGHT ... Extensive fog and mist, some patchy dense fog and isolated risks of frost, black ice on roads (this most likely inland north) ... lows in the range -1 to +4 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, some sunny intervals developing, showers near north and west coasts, light to moderate SW winds. Highs 8-10 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, breezy, a few showers, lows near 3 C and highs about 9-10 C.

SUNDAY ... Clear intervals overnight with frost, then increasing cloud, rain and strong winds possible by afternoon west, evening east. Potential for winds to reach SSW 50-80 km/hr, rainfalls overnight into Monday 15-30 mm. Lows -2 to +4 C and highs 7-11 C late in the day.

MONDAY ... Windy with showers, lows 4-7 C and highs 9-11 C, winds veering more to SW.

OUTLOOK ... The week is likely to remain quite unsettled with the Sunday night low spinning around and firing off secondary disturbances from time to time. As this system is already somewhat uncertain (it is only now forming near Bermuda) the further evolution is obviously "low confidence" but I have the feeling that a stronger storm than Sunday's event is possible within the week. Highs in any case should be rather mild on average, 8-11 C. Longer range models are hinting at much colder weather to follow around the last days of the month into early December.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Widespread fog or mist, staying rather cold in any dense fog inland east and south, some brighter intervals west, highs in range 5-10 C depending on influence of fog ... Scotland likely somewhat brighter with isolated showers. Highs 7-9 C.

TONIGHT ... Further dense fog and mist, lows -2 to +4 C, some patchy frost and "black ice" conditions on some roads.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, showers in some northern areas, breezy by afternoon north and west, fog could remain in parts of southeast. Highs around 8 C on average.

OUTLOOK ... Similar trends to Ireland, but the southeast could remain rather misty or foggy well into the weekend as the stronger winds won't make much of an impact on that region until perhaps Monday.


Forecasts for North America

Across most of the U.S., dry and chilly northern half trending to dry and mild southern states into California. Patchy rain near North Carolina coast and across Newfoundland from decaying front that will be picking up the Bermuda low near Nova Scotia tonight. That will spread a bit of rain into coastal regions of eastern Canada on Friday. Another weak system will spread rain onto the central B.C. coast and Alaska panhandle; further inland, the air above the snow pack is now a bit milder but light winds will create a surface inversion and widespread fog (freezing mist in some parts). For mid-November this is a rather quiet weather pattern. It may eventually produce an east coast snowstorm near the end of the month. Meanwhile, my local weather on Wednesday was partly cloudy with hazy sun and small-scale towering cumulus, no precip, highs near 10 C.

The Sunday night storm potential continues to oscillate on each model run, check the forum thread for latest updates through rest of today. I may update the outlook in this forecast thread around 7-9 p.m.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Friday, 16 November, 2012

ADVANCE ALERT for possible strong winds and locally heavy rainfalls Sunday from mid-day to late overnight into Monday, S to SW winds 50-80 km/hr and possibly higher gusts near west and south coasts, rainfalls 20-35 mm.

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Variable cloud, some sunny intervals developing, showers near north and west coasts, light to moderate SW winds. Highs 8-10 C. Rainfalls generally 3-5 mm but some parts of east and south could remain dry.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, a few showers in most areas but somewhat heavier rain moving through the southeast, 5-10 mm possible there. Lows 3-7 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, breezy (W 25-40 km/hr), a few showers, and highs about 9-10 C.

SUNDAY ... Clear intervals overnight with frost in some inland south-central valleys, then increasing cloud, rain and strong winds possible by afternoon west, evening east. Winds SSW 50-80 km/hr, possibly higher gusts in a few exposed coastal locations, rainfalls overnight into Monday 15-35 mm. Morning lows -2 to +4 C and highs 7-11 C late in the day.

MONDAY ... Windy with showers, lows 4-7 C and highs 9-11 C, winds veering more to SW and falling off to moderate 35-55 km/hr.

TUESDAY ... Breezy to windy with showers or periods of rain, lows near 5 C and highs near 11 C, southerly winds 40-70 km/hr.

OUTLOOK ... Unsettled and showery for several more days with highs 8-10 C and winds sometimes reaching 50-80 km/hr.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Frost or fog slowly dissipating, milder in most regions by afternoon, variable cloud, showers in some northern areas, breezy by afternoon north and west, fog could remain or at least low cloud and mist, in parts of southeast. Highs around 8 C on average.

TONIGHT ... Showers to periods of rain heaviest around south Wales, mild with lows about 5-7 C.

SATURDAY ... Breezy, mild, rain to showers. Highs near 12 C south, 9 C Scotland and northern England.

OUTLOOK ... Similar trends to Ireland, but the southeast could remain rather misty or foggy well into the weekend as the stronger winds won't make much of an impact on that region until perhaps Monday. Strongest winds likely for Scotland, northwest England, north Wales around Monday early miorning and again around Tuesday night, Thursday night. Highs remaining close to 10 C and largely frost-free nights.


Forecasts for North America

A very quiet weather pattern continues with sprawling high pressure although considerable cloud in most regions, some hazy sunshine getting through in the southeast and parts of the desert southwest. Highest temperatures range from near normal values in the east (7-12 C) to rather warm in Arizona to west Texas (22-25 C) but there are few frontal features in between. The snow cover remains intact over the northern plains and prairie provinces of Canada, and temperatures are close to freezing as milder Pacific air creates an inversion -- this will break down with stronger winds later today and into the weekend, allowing a mild chinook pattern and some melting (or evaporation) of the snow. A weak front is moving through northern Ontario dropping 1-3 cms of snow. The storm developing for Ireland on Sunday is now located southeast of Newfoundland and is spreading rain and northeast winds into the Avalon peninsula. My local weather on Thursday was partly cloudy with a high near 10 C and light winds.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.


Sunday, 18 November, 2012

ALERTS continued for black ice and slippery roads in some central counties to about 0930h, drive with extreme caution until this condition lifts, and then for possible strong winds and locally heavy rainfalls from mid-day to late overnight into Monday, S to SW winds 50-80 km/hr and possibly higher gusts near west and south coasts, rainfalls 20-35 mm.

ADVANCE ALERT for possible very strong S-SW winds on Tuesday (and/or Wednesday) -- models are having trouble resolving the details but we are seeing increasing signs of a period of gale to storm force winds 80-120 km/hr and potential for local gusts to 150 km/hr, developing rapidly from the southwest on Tuesday ... these might bring damaging potential, stay tuned for updates.


Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Frost slowly clearing from some inland south-central valleys, then increasing cloud (watch for solar halo to develop), rain and strong winds possible by afternoon west, and by evening in eastern counties. Winds SSW 50-80 km/hr, possibly higher gusts in a few exposed coastal locations, rainfalls overnight into Monday morning 15-35 mm. Morning lows -2 to +4 C and highs 7-11 C late in the day. Note that in Ulster winds may start out SE 20-40 km/hr before a warm front passes mid-day, temperatures 4-7 C until evening there.

TONIGHT ... Rain continuing, heavy at times, in blustery south to southwest winds 50-80 km/hr. Isolated gusts to 100 km/hr possible. Rainfalls by morning about 20-30 mm. Some local ponding of water on roadways, potential for mudslides in southwest near hills. Temperatures may rise to about 14-15 C in parts of the south overnight as tropical air reaches Ireland briefly, so instead of lows overnight, we will have Monday's highs in some cases, as temperatures generally soar to about 12 C.

MONDAY ... Continued rather windy with rain east tapering to showers, and highs 9-12 C after perhaps higher readings during the night, winds veering more to SW with sunny intervals developing across the west, then winds diminishing to a more moderate 35-55 km/hr. Further rainfalls about 10 mm.

MONDAY NIGHT ... Showers at times, lows 5-8 C, winds SSW 20-40 km/hr.

TUESDAY ... Breezy to windy with showers or periods of rain (10-15 mm possibly heavier in west) with some hail and thunder, and highs near 11 C, southerly winds 40-70 km/hr may rise to gale or storm force, with potential to reach 80-120 km/hr (higher gusts in exposed coastal locations) and some damage as a result ... situation is "fluid" as weather models have an unusually low confidence read on the situation at this short time range ... some indications that the strongest winds could be delayed to Tuesday night or Wednesday morning, but more likely will arrive as early as Tuesday mid-day. Updates will be provided regularly after new guidance issued.

WEDNESDAY ... Strong winds either diminishing or moving through north then subsiding, in general a showery and continued rather mild day with lows about 5 C and highs about 10 C, a further 5-10 mm rain.

OUTLOOK ... Showery and blustery for most of the week then a trend to colder weather seems likely, details have been changing but as models are currently not that reliable even for 3-4 days, I would go to the default of my own research which has been suggesting near normal temperatures in early December. Just a brief comment, on the longer-range, still holding to the idea of variable conditions in December, mild at times in January and colder late January into February. That is considerably different from some outlooks we have been hearing recently (not to say they are wrong, but here's a different theory of how the winter will go). There could be some severe wintry weather as suggested but I feel most of it will come later in the season.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Sunny intervals, frost slowly dissipating, some black ice in central Wales to Midlands, south central ... Increasing cloud late in the day, followed by rain and strong winds in north, central (breezy with showers in south) ... highs 8-10 C. Strongest winds by Sunday night about 70-100 km/hr in western Scotland.

TONIGHT and MONDAY ... Windy and mild, periods of rain, highs near 12 C could develop late overnight or during the morning. Rainfalls 20-40 mm heavier in Wales, Scotland.

TUESDAY ... Possible strong winds (80-120 km/hr) for Scotland and northwest England, breezy further south. Showers including some hail and thunder. Highs 8-11 C.

OUTLOOK ... Unsettled and breezy with showers most of the week, another period of strong winds likely for Scotland, northwest England, north Wales around Thursday. Highs remaining close to 10 C and largely frost-free nights.


Forecasts for North America

In contrast, the weather is generally quiet and dry in much of North America, thanks to a sprawling high over eastern Canada and New England. Some rain extends inland from the Gulf stream into the Carolinas, otherwise, very little precip other than a cold front in B.C. and Washington state bringing 10-20 mm rainfalls (mild enough to reach almost to summit levels). Mild chinook conditions will be removing more snow from the prairies but that process will hold temperatures down to about 5-8 C there. It's quite mild to warm across parts of the south and southwest, and continuing chilly closer to the high in the northeast states, although not "cold" by mid-November standards in the daytime, highs 8-10 C and some sunshine. My local weather on Saturday has been overcast and mild with intermittent light rain.

(late) Astronomy note: Mercury overtook the earth on Saturday around sunset Irish time, and at that point it was just above the Sun's north pole. This event is known as "inferior conjunction."

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Monday, 19 November, 2012

The current ALERT for strong winds should expire by about 1100h and most of the rain from the system has fallen but a risk of isolated flooding and mudslides near hills will continue through the day.

ADVANCE ALERT for possible strong S-SW winds on Tuesday -- models are still having trouble resolving the details and we now expect a brief period of 50-80 km/hr S-SW winds with possible gusts to 110 km/hr in exposed parts of the northwest. Another interval of strong winds is possible on Thursday. Both of these events will be accompanied by at least 10-20 mm rainfalls.

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Continued windy (SSW 50-80 km/hr) with rain now over the east tapering to showers, morning temperatures 12-14 C then levelling off 10-12 C as winds veer more to SW, with sunny intervals developing across the west, then winds diminishing to a more moderate 35-55 km/hr. Further rainfalls about 10 mm.

TONIGHT ... Mild and breezy, increasing cloud with showers at times towards morning, lows 5-8 C, winds SSW 20-40 km/hr increasing near south coast to about 40-60 km/hr.

TUESDAY ... Breezy to windy with showers or periods of rain (10-15 mm possibly heavier in west) with some hail and thunder, and highs near 10-12 C, southerly winds 40-70 km/hr may rise to 60-90 km/hr in the northwest mainly (higher gusts possible in exposed coastal locations) ... strongest winds likely around 6-9 p.m. in coastal Connacht and west Ulster.

WEDNESDAY ... Strong winds diminishing by early morning, becoming SW 30-50 km/hr, showery and continued rather mild with lows 5-7 C and highs about 10 C, with a further 5-10 mm rain.

THURSDAY ... Windy (S 50-80 km/hr) and mild with rain (10-20 mm), lows about 6 C and highs about 11 C.

FRIDAY ... Breezy, showers, mild. Winds SW 30-60 km/hr, lows near 6 C and highs near 10 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Rather mild and unsettled, models are backing off earlier concepts of colder weather or easterly winds, this complex sprawling low pressure may be stubborn to break down.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Windy and mild, periods of rain, highs near 12 C, rainfalls 20-40 mm heaviest in Wales, Scotland. Winds near west coast SSW 50-80 km/hr, about 40-70 km/hr further east. Southeast may take longer to get into mildest air and mid-day temperatures of 5-7 C likely there in drizzle and fog.

TONIGHT ... Breezy, mild, showers. Lows 5-8 C.

TUESDAY ... Breezy mid-day with strong winds (80-120 km/hr) for Scotland and northwest England by evening, staying just breezy further south. Showers including some hail and thunder. Highs 8-11 C.

OUTLOOK ... Unsettled and breezy with showers most of the week, another period of strong winds likely for Scotland, northwest England, north Wales around Thursday. Highs remaining close to 10 C and largely frost-free nights.


Forecasts for North America

Little change in the rather quiet weather pattern, sunshine across parts of the east and central regions will feel mild around mid-day despite widespread sharp frosts overnight, but chilly east winds and rain may back into mid-Atlantic states from offshore system. A strong front is moving inland through the early morning on the west coast and will bring rain and strong winds to valleys and lower slopes, snow to peaks only and some parts of the northern prairies, sleet further south. Staying quite warm across the southwest.

My local weather on Sunday was windy and wet, not quite as stormy as in most of Ireland, but almost (20 mms rain, wind gusts to 80 km/hr and highs near 10 C). Slight clearing is expected later today once the front moves further inland.