Storm Callum - Thursday/Friday 11/12 October 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Sycamore Tree · 09-10-2018 5:10pm

This storm got a mention in the Dail just now. Alan Kelly mentioned it in his budget response speech.

It could be the most high profile storm in years

Discodog · 09-10-2018 5:23pm

Really nice animation showing the storm & the jet stream.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-18.72,40.43,468/loc=-7.173,53.820

REBELSAFC · 09-10-2018 5:43pm

Discodog wrote: »

Really nice animation showing the storm & the jet stream.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-18.72,40.43,468/loc=-7.173,53.820

Lovely image but I think the storm there is Hurricane Lesley, not the yet to be named "Ferocious Friday"

dacogawa · 09-10-2018 5:50pm

REBELSAFC wrote: »

Lovely image but I think the storm there is Hurricane Lesley, not the yet to be named "Ferocious Friday"

Love "Ferocious Friday"

We should get to name the storms on here!

The next one should be "Stormy McStormface"

An Ri rua · 09-10-2018 6:56pm

Unusual clear-lined ridges to the cloud structures rolling in across the Midlands this evening. Something tells me we're in for a humdinger of a storm. Even the crows and starlings are anticipating.

M.T. Cranium · 09-10-2018 7:01pm

You can tell the NHC are fed up with Leslie and now the GFS wants to take it back west for yet another grand tour. It may end up becoming one of the longest-lived tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic -- if you add its two appearances so far, 19-24 Sept and 28 Sept - present, total of 18 days and possibly another two weeks if GFS correct, so 32 days. Other models bring Leslie close enough to Iberia or Africa that it could dissipate there around Monday. That would be a 24 day life span and really in the four days it was "off the books" it was a strong extratropical cyclone so quite a long-lived storm (now reaching 22 days on that count).

The longest lived (according to Wikipedia) was a hurricane in 1899 that lasted for 27 days (at least TS level).

As for storms with two life cycles, those are fairly rare when separated by more than three days, more common for briefer downgrades, the main reason being travel over cooler mid-Atlantic waters removing tropical characteristics. Looks to me like Leslie is already near number ten on the all-time list. Link here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Atlantic_hurricane_records

dacogawa · 09-10-2018 7:01pm

RTE went for it in the forecast there, wasn't expecting that!

Roll on the ECM...

Snowbiee21 · 09-10-2018 7:03pm

Large uncertainty continues on the track of this coming Friday's potential storm and just how much of an impact it will have on Ireland. Current likelihood is for a very stormy start to Friday with strong gusts of wind to the same extent that Storm Ali was on the 19 September for many and even stronger in some more localised spots of the west especially the southwest. There is a chance of a window of drier, calmer weather through the middle of Friday before the day ends exceptionally wet into Saturday especially in the southeast of the country around Waterford, Wexford and Carlow.

This low has the potential to be named Storm Callum and it's being picked up by a very powerful jet stream (which drives all the low pressure systems to Ireland when they come here). Will it be another storm that never was like on Sunday 23 September? Not likely but we shall see, it's all up for grabs at the moment.

If current thoughts verify, parts of the west could receive a red status warning which will close businesses and schools. Other regions of the country like in the east (including Dublin in case people ask) are very unlikely to get a red warning, the highest as an amber warning. There maybe separate warnings for the heavy rain later in the day too.

Tomorrow will be a warm day in contrast with temperatures getting up to 18-20c widely over Ireland, highest in the east. It'll feel almost tropical if you catch any sunshine. Classic Indian Summer day. Calm before the storm as they say! Credit from the great SRYANBRUEN

goat2 · 09-10-2018 7:06pm

Seems like a fast moving storm,

dacogawa · 09-10-2018 7:08pm

New ECM is out

ECM1-72.GIF?09-0

ninebeanrows · 09-10-2018 7:11pm

Looks like a fish on the latest EC

We still have a very strong southerly to contend with though which will give a widespread yellow warning regardless of where the centre of the depression goes, possibly Orange warning in some coastal domains.

M.T. Cranium · 09-10-2018 7:13pm

So the ECM while very deep (948 mbs) still holds on to a glancing blow scenario with that track, would imagine still some level one winds between map hours around 03-06z if that verifies.

Similar differences in relation to Michael further west so the two things are connected.

No particular hunch here, hate it when mom and dad bicker.

uck51js9zml2yt · 09-10-2018 7:16pm

Looks like I'll get to feel what it looks like living half way up a mountain on the west coast very soon :eek:

I should have stayed in Dublin:D

sdanseo · 09-10-2018 7:19pm

Not to be sensationalist, but meanwhile, 12Z runs from every other model.

I wouldn't say we're completely out of the woods, although the ECM has been infinitely more reliable than GFS lately.
If the ECM correctly resolves this in the face of all of the below, it will be another very strong signal that it is becoming even more reliable at medium ranges.

GFS - 140-150km/h onshore gusts. Widespread if not national orange warning.

66-289UK.GIF?09-12

WRF - easily a red warning for the West on mean speed basis

nmmuk-3-68-0.png?09-19

ICON - always overcooks things a bit but nonetheless showing <170km/h onshore gusts

ARPEGE - up to 150km/h onshore and widespread 100-120km/h gusts.

arpegeuk-11-67-0.png?09-18

pad199207 · 09-10-2018 7:25pm

Nicholas Worried Goalkeeper wrote: »

Looks like I'll get to feel what it looks like living half way up a mountain on the west coast very soon :eek:

I should have stayed in Dublin:D

I’m in Achill Thursday and Friday :-o

Villain · 09-10-2018 7:30pm

ECMWF is holding firm!

https://twitter.com/carlowweather/status/1049728420240867328?s=21

SleetAndSnow · 09-10-2018 7:38pm

How do we look in Cork at the moment? Bit of an iffy county because its south, yet included in the south west at time and the south east at other times

sryanbruen · 09-10-2018 7:40pm

ECM 12z has even higher rainfall totals than previous runs but they're further eastwards into the west of the UK rather than the southeast of Ireland. Not nearly as wet for us as last night or this morning's ECM runs.

D9Male · 09-10-2018 7:42pm

Does the ECM still forecast torrential rain on Saturday for the South and East?

Ignore, answered above.

Artane2002 · 09-10-2018 7:42pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

ECM 12z has even higher rainfall totals than previous runs but they're further eastwards into the west of the UK rather than the southeast of Ireland. Not nearly as wet for us as last night or this morning's ECM runs.

I think some people in the southeast could use up 15-30mm so that's good for them, not so good for the rain haters. I'm going to guess the ECM will be closer to the mark regarding winds because 9 times out of 10 the less extreme solution wins out.

Meteorite58 · 09-10-2018 7:54pm

Clear difference in track between the ECM and the group of GFS, ARPEGE, ICON, WRF

Meteorite58 · 09-10-2018 8:10pm

ECM less severe than the other models with the biggest winds out to sea, still clipping the SW fairly well on this run but short lived and strong along the W.

Widespread gusts over 100 km/h inland, over 110km/h in places

Held its track in two consecutive runs which is saying something. Will see if the others follow suit.

Chris_5339762 · 09-10-2018 8:23pm

GFS Operational showing ridiculous amounts of sustained rain for Dublin.

Sycamore Tree · 09-10-2018 8:23pm

Meteorite58 wrote: »

ECM less severe than the other models with the biggest winds out to sea, still clipping the SW fairly well on this run but short lived and strong along the W.

Is ECM generally more reliable for these storm events?

Artane2002 · 09-10-2018 8:25pm

Sycamore Tree wrote: »

Is ECM generally more reliable for these storm events?

GFS usually overdoes lows so I'd say it's slightly more credible than the GFS.

Meteorite58 · 09-10-2018 8:32pm

Sycamore Tree wrote: »

Is ECM generally more reliable for these storm events?

One of the more reliable and realistic, not prone to overdoing it. Unusual though to see the others being so closely grouped. The ECM has a good record coming out on top over the other models in reliability scores.

The UKMO would seem to be further W as well .

xii · 09-10-2018 8:37pm

Why are ME worried this far out if the more reliable forecasts are showing a shift west. what do they use?

MJohnston · 09-10-2018 8:45pm

xii wrote: »

Why are ME worried this far out if the more reliable forecasts are showing a shift west. what do they use?

A version of the HARMONIE model that isn't available for public consumption, sadly.

Sycamore Tree · 09-10-2018 8:52pm

xii wrote: »

Why are ME worried this far out if the more reliable forecasts are showing a shift west. what do they use?

They might be erring on the side of caution after Ali.

thomil · 09-10-2018 8:52pm

MJohnston wrote: »

A version of the HARMONIE model that isn't available for public consumption, sadly.

I thought they were using a locally hosted HIRLAM instance for short range forecasts up to 48 hours, and rely on ECMWF for longer forecasts? Met Éireann is certainly listed as such on the HIRLAM consortium website.

mickger844posts · 09-10-2018 9:03pm

Although the ECM is further West than the other models, its still showing gusts to 100km/h in a wide area of the country albeit within just a six hour timefame.
I would always trust the ECM over any of the other models in this type of scenario. Still all to play for but thankfully it looks like the severe intense storm will stay offshore.

Oscar Bravo · 09-10-2018 9:06pm

Met eireann Advisory updated with just west and north west coasts mentioned for damaging gusts.

STATUS YELLOW

Weather Advisory for Ireland
A spell of wet and very windy, possibly stormy, weather is expected on Thursday night/ Friday morning as a deep depression tracks Northwards to the West of Ireland.There is the risk of damaging gusts, especially along the West and Northwest coast.
There is the also the risk of coastal flooding due to high tides and surge.

Later Friday and continuing into Saturday there is the potential for some high totals of rainfall and flooding due to another area of low pressure and series of weather fronts., with the East and South particularly at risk.
Issued:
Tuesday 09 October 2018 19:00

MJohnston · 09-10-2018 9:14pm

thomil wrote: »

I thought they were using a locally hosted HIRLAM instance for short range forecasts up to 48 hours, and rely on ECMWF for longer forecasts? Met Éireann is certainly listed as such on the HIRLAM consortium website.

Looks like they use both actually:
https://www.met.ie/education/how-met-eireann-produces-a-forecast

At Met Éireann we run both the Harmonie and HirlamNumerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. They model the atmosphere using the primitive equations of meteorology.

xii · 09-10-2018 9:29pm

MJohnston wrote: »

A version of the HARMONIE model that isn't available for public consumption, sadly.

Sounds a bit Soviet Republic, why so secretive.

MJohnston · 09-10-2018 9:35pm

xii wrote: »

Sounds a bit Soviet Republic, why so secretive.

Nothing sinister, there are just some models that aren't visible to the public, because they're licensed out or proprietary or whatever.

The Met Eireann mobile app does have some of the outputs of this model visible, but they're not particularly well presented.

09-10-2018 9:36pm

Any chance of a red warning then? Friday working from home would be nice haha

Oscar Bravo · 09-10-2018 9:38pm

Low pressure well out to the west on the chart on the Rte1 9.30 forecast just there. looking now like a north west coastal event for the very strong gusts.

09-10-2018 9:40pm

Met E following the less threatening ECM guidance with their latest forecast there after the 9pm news? 'Very windy with a risk of storm force winds in parts of the NW'.

Defaulter1831 · 09-10-2018 9:42pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Any chance of a red warning then? Friday working from home would be nice haha

I'm afraid with every passing hour the chances are receding

Listening to Eilish Dillon on the 9.30 RTE forecast and the damaging gusts are mentioned for the northwest. Now we're 2 days out so there is room for change.

However i think the days of the October 15th 1987 storm in the UK sneaking up on us are over. Met Science has come on in leaps and bounds since then.

Meteorite58 · 09-10-2018 10:31pm

ICON- EU 18Z shifted a bit W on the latest run, can compare with the 12Z. Still widespread strong winds and packing a punch along the Atlantic Seaboard and especially the W NW and N. Is the Westward drift going to continue . ICON known to overdo the wind speeds a bit.

dacogawa · 09-10-2018 10:50pm

New GFs

Old GFS

Not much difference, a few miles more northerly, so probably moving a bit faster...

pauldry · 09-10-2018 11:02pm

West Coast and Northwest battered.

Rest of country just a windy day with high tides

However....

plenty of weather
Tomorrow 21c
Thursday breezy and wet (boring)
Friday Storm Callum
Friday evening Floods in parts with 40mm of rain until Saturday

Meteorite58 · 09-10-2018 11:07pm

Shifted a bit more West I would reckon, a bit less wind speed, getting more in line with the ECM now perhaps.

IMO Currently looking at widespread gusts over 90 to 100km/h, 120Km/h 130km/h along SW, W, NW coasts perhaps, maybe a bit more on coastal fringes.

skeleton_boy · 09-10-2018 11:13pm

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Ah the utterly useless yellow warning - aka "I'm not even going to pack the trampoline away"

It's not a warning, it's an advisory. I.e keep an eye on the forecast regularly for updates. These are typically issued in advance of systems that have the potential to become significant weather events.

Far from useless for any farmers or people living in remote locations etc.

dacogawa · 09-10-2018 11:17pm

Tides will be on their way out in Dublin at the peak of it, and heading back in after it moves on, I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't even lock down any of the flood defenses.

https://www.tide-forecast.com/locations/Dublin-Ireland/tides/latest

Sycamore Tree · 09-10-2018 11:19pm

There is a real sense of disappointment on this thread now. People wanted Red!

pauldry · 09-10-2018 11:26pm

Think the High tomorrow is shoving it further West in the long run but the core of strong winds will be touching Ireland so it will be quite stormy and disruptive Friday morning W and NW

Fitzo123 · 09-10-2018 11:32pm

Still reckon there's a good chance of a red warning for W/NW...

joeysoap · 10-10-2018 12:21am

Defaulter1831 wrote: »

I'm afraid with every passing hour the chances are receding

Listening to Eilish Dillon on the 9.30 RTE forecast and the damaging gusts are mentioned for the northwest. Now we're 2 days out so there is room for change.

However i think the days of the October 15th 1987 storm in the UK sneaking up on us are over. Met Science has come on in leaps and bounds since then.

I really don’t know why anyone would be disappointed if a storm wasn’t as strong as initially feared.

Every recent storm in Ireland caused deaths. The last one killed a forestry worker in Slieve Gullion forest park, Ophelia caused 3 by falling trees.

Meteorite58 · 10-10-2018 12:23am

ARPEGE 18Z just out to +60 hrs and going against the trend bringing the storm closer to Ireland and looking very strong.

ARPEGE did well with Storm Ali. The High Res models will tell more tomorrow.

Storm Callum - Thursday/Friday 11/12 October 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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Storm Callum - Thursday/Friday 11/12 October 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST