Storm Callum - Thursday/Friday 11/12 October 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

M.T. Cranium · 09-10-2018 7:47am

There now seems to be a bit of a model debate with European models tracking the Friday low a bit further west and wind speeds not looking quite as ominous, but two North American models still placing Ireland in the firing line. These debates often end with a compromise result which would turn out to be something like limited orange level warning status winds in parts of the northwest. But seeing Michael steadily intensifying and coming into the western Atlantic by Friday, I think it's wise to remain on high alert (not from that event directly but due to its potential to kick the upper level features far enough east to place the jet stream directly over Ireland). The rainfall potential looks a little more certain to verify and that of course extends well past the first storm into Saturday with a trailing wave.

If models come into better agreement by 12z or the next 00z run then we can perhaps give this thread an alert level tag but at the moment I think readers should be aware that any outcome between a non-event (wind wise at least) and a major disruption at least in Connacht and Ulster (possibly west Munster also) are on the table.

Graces7 · 09-10-2018 7:52am

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

There now seems to be a bit of a model debate with European models tracking the Friday low a bit further west and wind speeds not looking quite as ominous, but two North American models still placing Ireland in the firing line. These debates often end with a compromise result which would turn out to be something like limited orange level warning status winds in parts of the northwest. But seeing Michael steadily intensifying and coming into the western Atlantic by Friday, I think it's wise to remain on high alert (not from that event directly but due to its potential to kick the upper level features far enough east to place the jet stream directly over Ireland). The rainfall potential looks a little more certain to verify and that of course extends well past the first storm into Saturday with a trailing wave.

If models come into better agreement by 12z or the next 00z run then we can perhaps give this thread an alert level tag but at the moment I think readers should be aware that any outcome between a non-event (wind wise at least) and a major disruption at least in Connacht and Ulster (possibly west Munster also) are on the table.

Thanks. What we have here the last 3 days now is bad enough; force 8 and heavy rain with all the noise etc.
A brief respite will be very welcome..to ready for the next episode

West mayo offshore island

KingdomRushed · 09-10-2018 7:58am

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

Looking interesting, definite trend eastwards but the brain and experience says that there is a significant possibility the storm centre will stay further west and well off the western sea-board.

I think this was a prescient insight and my feeling on it too. As we are approaching the reliable the drift to the west is now very evident on the ECM. Potentially will end up even further west and north than currently showing given past experience of how the models handle the likes of this

Villain · 09-10-2018 8:13am

Yep ECMWF take a welcome move West but as mentioned by others rainfall and coastal flooding is a an issue even if ECMWF is right about keeping worst winds offshore.

https://twitter.com/CarlowWeather/status/1049555371457728512

https://twitter.com/CarlowWeather/status/1049544761030443008

*Using Twitter as quickest way to share images.

Storm 10 · 09-10-2018 8:14am

ME forecast at 8 on radio,

Stormy and damaging gusts likely to lead to disruption on Friday.

sounded to me we could be heading for a red warning for this one.

marvin80 · 09-10-2018 8:59am

Is anyone familiar with this page and is it reliable?
They seem to tally up with what's been said here (which is a good sign!)

https://www.facebook.com/MidlandWeatherChannel/

Meteorite58 · 09-10-2018 9:01am

Big shift W by the ECM all right , is this a new track and possibly shifting more W or an Outlier. The GFS has been holding a consistent track as was the ECM untill its latest run.

ICON similar to last run in track and intesity.
ARPEGE looks similar to the ECM taking the strongest winds out to sea.

Defaulter1831 · 09-10-2018 10:11am

Storm 10 wrote: »

ME forecast at 8 on radio,

sounded to me we could be heading for a red warning for this one.

I've a feeling Met Eireann might be over playing this storm a little after criticism over Ali. Making sure they cover themselves.

Not saying this system could veer west or east and needs to be monitored but they haven't highlighted a storm in advance like this bar Ophelia in my memory. Highlighted since Sunday's Farming Weather.

KingdomRushed · 09-10-2018 10:31am

Has anyone seen the ensemble mean for ECM? Perhaps Met Eireann are seeing the op as an outlier? The op would suggest a far lessened impact than what was previously forecast, but posts in here suggest met are still talking up potential?

Villain · 09-10-2018 10:40am

KingdomRushed wrote: »

Has anyone seen the ensemble mean for ECM? Perhaps Met Eireann are seeing the op as an outlier? The op would suggest a far lessened impact than what was previously forecast, but posts in here suggest met are still talking up potential?

Could be a little bit of an outlier alright;

downwiththatsor · 09-10-2018 10:56am

Gfs looks like it might pack a punch, gusts over 130km/hr might be orange or more. More runs needed.
06_72_windvector_gust.png?cb=639

Hooter23 · 09-10-2018 11:36am

It's too early to be warning/hyping up this storm...they do this with every potential storm nowadays and alot of the time it turns out not as bad...no wonder people ignore the warnings...newspapers/radio and even met eireann should wait until there is certainty instead of confusing people

randomname2005 · 09-10-2018 11:43am

Hooter23 wrote: »

It's too early to be warning/hyping up this storm...they do this with every potential storm nowadays and alot of the time it turns out not as bad...no wonder people ignore the warnings...newspapers/radio and even met eireann should wait until there is certainty instead of confusing people

Damned if they do, damned if they don't. They can't win either way. If they don't raise the potential early then they are met with "we weren't given enough warning". If they raise it too early they are blamed for crying wolf. Some of the more knowledgeable people here will be better able to give a timeline estimate , but a storm coming from the south west might not be certain to hit or miss until a few hours before hand. I like knowing early so I can keep an eye, stock up on provisions in time. If it doesn't happen, no big deal.

Hooter23 · 09-10-2018 11:48am

randomname2005 wrote: »

Damned if they do, damned if they don't. They can't win either way. If they don't raise the potential early then they are met with "we weren't given enough warning". If they raise it too early they are blamed for crying wolf. Some of the more knowledgeable people here will be better able to give a timeline estimate , but a storm coming from the south west might not be certain to hit or miss until a few hours before hand. I like knowing early so I can keep an eye, stock up on provisions in time. If it doesn't happen, no big deal.

Yes your right...I think that after not giving a good enough warning with the bad storm a few weeks ago they are just trying to make sure they are not caught out again this time

Oscar Bravo · 09-10-2018 11:50am

Hooter23 wrote: »

It's too early to be warning/hyping up this storm...they do this with every potential storm nowadays and alot of the time it turns out not as bad...no wonder people ignore the warnings...newspapers/radio and even met eireann should wait until there is certainty instead of confusing people

Not sure how met eireann are confusing people, their forecast states the following "There is the potential for a named storm to come close to Ireland later Thursday night and early Friday morning, as a deep area of low pressure is set to track northwards, to the west of Ireland. The exact track is still not certain, so keep in tune for updates and Met Éireann warnings. …."

The wording above is spot on at the moment,giving that its only Tuesday. anyway I think the mods should set up a separate thread on the upcoming fallout regarding met eireann's warnings as the last storm thread was ruined.

Macy0161 · 09-10-2018 11:50am

Hooter23 wrote: »

It's too early to be warning/hyping up this storm...they do this with every potential storm nowadays and alot of the time it turns out not as bad...no wonder people ignore the warnings...newspapers/radio and even met eireann should wait until there is certainty instead of confusing people

They do, or the likes of The Journal with click bait headlines? The latter imo, any forecast has emphasised the "potential" and the uncertainty over the track.

I've had to say it to a few different people in the office today that it's still uncertain at the moment, and might not happen. It probably will be the same people giving out if it doesn't happen about "they said there was going to be a storm"...

Meteorite58 · 09-10-2018 11:59am

Mod Note: please see note on opening post. Please keep Met Eireann debate in appropriate thread, not here.

Thanks

Hooter23 · 09-10-2018 12:00pm

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Not sure how met eireann are confusing people, their forecast states the following "There is the potential for a named storm to come close to Ireland later Thursday night and early Friday morning, as a deep area of low pressure is set to track northwards, to the west of Ireland. The exact track is still not certain, so keep in tune for updates and Met Éireann warnings. …."

The wording above is spot on at the moment,giving that its only Tuesday. anyway I think the mods should set up a separate thread on the upcoming fallout regarding met eireann's warnings as the last storm thread was ruined.

It's probably more the newspapers/radio that hype up these storms...and then met eireann take all the backlash if the storm turns out worse or not as bad as expected...

Meteorite58 · 09-10-2018 12:03pm

GFS 06Z is a stonker. Not budging on track, even stronger looking than previous run, ECM 0Z an Outlier ?

Latest ICON looks similar to last run, very stormy.

The plot thickens. Time will tell.

goat2 · 09-10-2018 12:05pm

Meteorite58 wrote: »

GFS 06Z is a stonker. Not budging on track, even stronger looking than previous run, ECM 0Z an Outlier ?

Latest ICON looks similar to last run, very stormy.

The plot thickens. Time will tell.

Which part or parts of the country will be worst hit, if it stays as is

Oscar Bravo · 09-10-2018 12:08pm

South west,West,North west and North. Belmullet around 9am looks dangerous on that run.

MJohnston · 09-10-2018 12:13pm

The high-res ARPEGE should be in range once the current run finishes up in another 30 minutes or so.

km79 · 09-10-2018 12:20pm

I’m guessing a big shift west also shifts the rainfall west
Do I not like that !!!

Donegal Storm · 09-10-2018 12:21pm

With the wind leading from the south east and turning south, the south and east coast could take a nasty hit as the front is passing through. Will be passing through the south at morning rush hour with heavy driving rain.

I often find with these systems that the frontal passage can be just as severe as the core of the storm which tends to be more gusty with squally showers.

Mount Vesuvius · 09-10-2018 12:21pm

Yep the potential is very much there for this to be destructive, especially along atlantic counties. More runs needed though.

Winds gust at 10 metres

And if these upper winds periodically get down too.

MJohnston · 09-10-2018 12:22pm

ARPEGE actually done now up to 72h, puts us right in the pocket for the strongest winds:

Rain is less severe but still pretty heavy in places:

Shakey_jake · 09-10-2018 12:41pm

I meant to go fishing to Waterford for the weekend from Friday

Guess ill have to cancel it?

bozharry1 · 09-10-2018 12:55pm

Hi everyone I am flying from UK on Friday with Ryanair into Dublin at 5:50 pm.Should I change my flight.Will this have a knock on effect for Friday.Thanks so much.

jammiedodgers · 09-10-2018 12:55pm

Shakey_jake wrote: »

I meant to go fishing to Waterford for the weekend from Friday

Guess ill have to cancel it?

The fish could be coming to you!

Oasis1974 · 09-10-2018 12:59pm

Ya change your flight and go fishing with guy going to Waterford?

MJohnston · 09-10-2018 1:16pm

Oasis1974 wrote: »

And don't post question's like that in this forum people here are willing death and carnage through weather most all the time.

Careful, or we'll get MTC to fire his weather death ray at your house in particular.

darth_maul · 09-10-2018 1:21pm

Ok, supposed to be flying from Donegal airport to Dublin on Saturday on an small airplane, does this look like it will have passed by then or will I cancel.

MJohnston · 09-10-2018 1:32pm

People who are asking "will this affect my flight/bar mitzvah/ritualistic slaughter/bank robbery/BBQ garden soiree?"

Here is a handy prediction chart:

City | Earliest possible time of storm effects | Absolute earliest time we can answer local effects questions
Cork | 1am Friday | 1am Thursday
Limerick | 1am Friday | 1am Thursday
Galway | 3am Friday | 3am Thursday
Kilkenny | 3am Friday | 3am Thursday
Dublin | 4:30am Friday | 4:30am Thursday
Sligo | 4:30am Friday | 4:30am Thursday
Letterkenny | 5:30am Friday | 5:30am Thursday
Belfast | 5:30am Friday | 5:30am Thursday

For context - Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts will only really become available about 24-30 hours ahead of time, and those are the ones that are important for effects on airports and flights.
Everything else, it's just too uncertain any earlier than 24 hours before a storm to start asking these questions.

Another disclaimer: these times above are also predictions, they are not anywhere near certain either. But the basic rule is - if you're asking whether it will affect you more than 24 hours before a storm is predicted to hit, you're not going to get a solid answer.

nmacu · 09-10-2018 1:37pm

darth_maul wrote: »

Ok, supposed to be flying from Donegal airport to Dublin on Saturday on an small airplane, does this look like it will have passed by then or will I cancel.

This is not aimed at you specifically but can people please stop posting about what they're supposed to be doing and whether the weather will affect their specific circumstances. These posts ruin the thread. We're all supposed to be doing stuff on Friday and should use our own judgement based on the weather forecast for specific locations + other info (e.g. this forum) + common sense to make a decision to go ahead with a particular activity or not.

In my opinion, the thread will be more informative to us all if it is as streamlined as possible, i.e., consisting mostly of contributions from the people who really know their stuff about the weather and how it's likely to pan out, rather than contributions from people (like me or you) who just add to the clutter and make the thread harder to follow.

Oscar Bravo · 09-10-2018 1:46pm

1257 Met Eireann update

On Thursday night potentially stormy conditions may develop as a low pressure system off the west coast tracks northwards. The exact track is still somewhat uncertain but it coincides with high spring tides. Thursday evening and early in the night will be mostly dry but very heavy rain and extremely windy or stormy conditions will sweep in from the southwest. Strong to gale force and blustery south to southeast winds will back southwesterly early Friday morning. This could well lead to some disruption, with some damaging gusts in places, but especially in exposed Atlantic coastal areas. The potentially stormy conditions may clear quickly on Friday morning with winds moderating and mostly dry weather for a time

pauldry · 09-10-2018 1:48pm

Well said. I was dying to say that.

Just staying directly on topic I see in Indo that 150kph winds will be off West coast Friday morning

Another will it wont it Red warning. Think they should just advise people in the West not to go to work until storm has passed i.e. prob 11 or 12am

Schools will prob be closed in Atlantic counties unless storm stays West. very touch n go

RobertKK · 09-10-2018 2:16pm

From met.ie

On Thursday night potentially stormy conditions may develop as a low pressure system off the west coast tracks northwards. The exact track is still somewhat uncertain but it coincides with high spring tides. Thursday evening and early in the night will be mostly dry but very heavy rain and extremely windy or stormy conditions will sweep in from the southwest. Strong to gale force and blustery south to southeast winds will back southwesterly early Friday morning. This could well lead to some disruption, with some damaging gusts in places, but especially in exposed Atlantic coastal areas. The potentially stormy conditions may clear quickly on Friday morning with winds moderating and mostly dry weather for a time. However, another spell of very heavy rain will push in later on Friday from the south leading possibly to flooding. The rain will become widespread on Friday night and will continue on Saturday with the risk of heavy and possibly thundery downpours. The rain clear to more showery conditions later on Saturday and ease later on Saturday night.

Sycamore Tree · 09-10-2018 2:18pm

High Tide in Galway on Friday is at 7:50am and is a high one - 5.21m.

Fortunately the worst of the winds will have passed by then but it could get messy between 5am and 8am on the Prom and around Flood St.

Meteorite58 · 09-10-2018 2:35pm

Sycamore Tree wrote: »

High Tide in Galway on Friday is at 7:50am and is a high one - 5.21m.

Fortunately the worst of the winds will have passed by then but it could get messy between 5am and 8am on the Prom and around Flood St.

I think the strong winds will be hitting Galway around then and for a number of hours after.

Direction of winds and storm surge could be a big issue.

spookwoman · 09-10-2018 2:58pm

Shakey_jake wrote: »

I meant to go fishing to Waterford for the weekend from Friday

Guess ill have to cancel it?

high tide in tramore is at 8.13am @ 4.27m if wind is coming from the south south west there will be tidal surge waves of 16+ ft. Great fishing weather

Meteorite58 · 09-10-2018 3:13pm

Mod Note Oasis1974 read the forum charter before posting here again.

murfo · 09-10-2018 3:24pm

Sycamore Tree wrote: »

High Tide in Galway on Friday is at 7:50am and is a high one - 5.21m.

Fortunately the worst of the winds will have passed by then but it could get messy between 5am and 8am on the Prom and around Flood St.

What a terrible name for a street, just asking for trouble really. Make sure you park your car on Sandbag St.

Storm 10 · 09-10-2018 3:28pm

And were off

:D

https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/735194/weather-forecast-uk-storm-met-office-warning-friday-bbc-latest-news-london

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6256109/Britain-bask-77F-heat-tomorrow-heavy-rain-Friday.html

dacogawa · 09-10-2018 4:12pm

Storm 10 wrote: »

And were off :D

https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/735194/weather-forecast-uk-storm-met-office-warning-friday-bbc-latest-news-london

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6256109/Britain-bask-77F-heat-tomorrow-heavy-rain-Friday.html

skeleton_boy · 09-10-2018 4:19pm

Advisory issued by Met Eireann

https://www.met.ie/warnings

Status Yellow - Weather Advisory for Ireland

A spell of wet and very windy, possibly stormy, weather is expected on Thursday night/ Friday morning as a deep depression tracks Northwards to the West of Ireland.
There is the risk of coastal flooding due to high tides and surge.

Later Friday and continuing into Saturday there is the potential for some high totals of rainfall and flooding due to another area of low pressure and series of weather fronts, with the East and South particularly at risk.
Issued: Tuesday 09 October 2018 15:00
Updated: Tuesday 09 October 2018 15:00
Valid from Thursday 11 October 2018 23:00 to Saturday 13 October 2018 21:00

redsteveireland · 09-10-2018 4:25pm

Salthill may be at risk again Thursday/Friday, the prom is closed this evening due to current high tide and wind combination.

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=921342541399779&id=676665045867531&fs=1&focus_composer=0

Zzippy · 09-10-2018 4:27pm

Sycamore Tree wrote: »

High Tide in Galway on Friday is at 7:50am and is a high one - 5.21m.

Fortunately the worst of the winds will have passed by then but it could get messy between 5am and 8am on the Prom and around Flood St.

redsteveireland wrote: »

Salthill may be at risk again Thursday/Friday, the prom is closed this evening due to current high tide and wind combination.

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=921342541399779&id=676665045867531&fs=1&focus_composer=0

Tides are a bit lower on Friday at least, hopefully won't be too disruptive.

MJohnston · 09-10-2018 4:35pm

Should get our first look at what the AROME makes of all this by 5pm or so, 12Z is just rolling out. GFS 12Z also underway, lets see what way they're leaning!

Sycamore Tree · 09-10-2018 4:50pm

Meteorite58 wrote: »

I think the strong winds will be hitting Galway around then and for a number of hours after.

Direction of winds and storm surge could be a big issue.

The winds look to be Southerly at high tide so it's probably going to impact the Promenade alright. To be fair the council close that road regularly and well in advance for these events so it shouldn't be a danger/surprise to anyone. It will throw up a few stones onto the road etc but we are well used to it. There are always the few cars in the Prom carparks but they are mainly tourists and there should be less of them around now.
The flood defences around Jury's Inn could be tested though. We'll see.

Galway people are well able for storms at this stage and we have a secret weapon....Teresa!

North western Europe, offshore Island.

dacogawa · 09-10-2018 4:51pm

GFS basically sticking to earlier, the ECM will be telling

gfs-0-66.png?12

Storm Callum - Thursday/Friday 11/12 October 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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Storm Callum - Thursday/Friday 11/12 October 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST