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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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Comments

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    #1202
    Danno
    Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    GFSOPUK12_375_5.png

    If the GFS is forecasting -10c for Ireland, it's time to get out and dust down the record books again! :eek:


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    #1203
    bazlers
    Registered Users Posts: 692 ✭✭✭bazlers


    EC is like its lost in a fog.
    Or maybe it knows the way to go and im lost : )

    Its all quiet interesting to be fair.


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    #1204
    bazlers
    Registered Users Posts: 692 ✭✭✭bazlers


    Danno wrote: »
    GFSOPUK12_375_5.png

    If the GFS is forecasting -10c for Ireland, it's time to get out and dust down the record books again! :eek:

    Thats a moral boaster and a half. Even if its boyond the beyonds


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    #1205
    lucernarian
    Registered Users Posts: 9,235 ✭✭✭lucernarian


    AuntySnow wrote: »
    In fairness now,those are 120's on Friday
    Those more or less happened
    Beyond 120 most certainly didn't which was my point
    Why don't you use the same model and publisher, or at a t+144 onwards comparison if you wanted to show this?

    Agree that fantasy Island is fantasy Island and ice is cold :)


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    #1206
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 5,963 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    GFS and GEM are decent runs but its impossible to take anything past +120hrs serious. It's all rather good fun though


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    #1207
    esposito
    Registered Users Posts: 1,343 ✭✭✭esposito


    TheMilkyPirate wrote: »
    GFS and GEM are decent runs but its impossible to take anything past +120hrs serious. It's all rather good fun though
    .

    And the ECM is sh**e. I’d take all these ups and downs over the coming days if it meant a favourable outcome.
    What annoys me and a lot of others I’m sure is that the proper cold is way out in FI (29th Jan for example) I want it next week!


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    #1208
    Artane2002
    Registered Users Posts: 1,984 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    esposito wrote: »
    .

    And the ECM is sh**e. I’d take all these ups and downs over the coming days if it meant a favourable outcome.
    What annoys me and a lot of others I’m sure is that the proper cold is way out in FI (29th Jan for example) I want it next week!

    the GFS is an outlier and the ECM doesn't look far off what the GFS was showing this morning. I'd expect the pub run to revert back to what was being shown this morning.


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    #1209
    Humberto Salazar
    Closed Accounts Posts: 624 ✭✭✭Humberto Salazar


    Danno wrote: »
    GFSOPUK12_375_5.png

    If the GFS is forecasting -10c for Ireland, it's time to get out and dust down the record books again! :eek:

    I'll come back on..*checks chart date*... 29th Jan and let you know :)


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    #1210
    PukkaStukka
    Registered Users Posts: 2,154 ✭✭✭PukkaStukka


    The models are playing kick the can in FI. Same story every winter


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    #1211
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Artane2002 wrote: »
    the GFS is an outlier and the ECM doesn't look far off what the GFS was showing this morning. I'd expect the pub run to revert back to what was being shown this morning.

    Yes for all the talk of models struggling to deal with the fallout of the SSW, on a lot of runs there has been a consistent signal for heights in Iberia and a Greenland ridge to be too far west for us to benefit from. Even if the GFS was not an outlier, I would not be confident in it verifying when it goes against the UKMO and ECM. To clarify i'm not saying winter is over, but the odds of a prolonged freeze look unlikely in the next 10 -12 Days. However, If we have heights continuing to be modelled to the north west for the next few weeks we may tap into snowy cold at some point.


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    #1212
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,143 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    Worth a watch from the Met Office. A lot of uncertainty but they favour a colder solution for the U.K. at least.

    https://www.facebook.com/287501884208/posts/10158284544339209/


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    #1213
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Another underwhelming GFS run we somehow get stuck in no mans land. Its so frustrating to see the NH profile the way it is, yet we can't tap into proper cold.


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    #1214
    lostweekend3
    Registered Users Posts: 58 ✭✭lostweekend3


    nacho libre wrote: »
    Another underwhelming GFS run we somehow get stuck in no mans land. Its so frustrating to see the NH profile the way it is, yet we can't tap into proper cold.

    Bad pub run might mean good morning runs :)
    Frustrating as you say but we will get lucky eventually.


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    #1215
    Danno
    Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    https://www.met.ie/forecasts/monthly-forecast/

    Don't know if the above Met Eireann forecast was mentioned, but its some turnaround from the last one issued! :eek:


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    #1216
    Calibos
    Registered Users Posts: 7,796 ✭✭✭Calibos


    nacho libre wrote: »
    Another underwhelming GFS run we somehow get stuck in no mans land. Its so frustrating to see the NH profile the way it is, yet we can't tap into proper cold.

    Repeat of Feb 2012??

    539405.jpg


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    #1217
    Humberto Salazar
    Closed Accounts Posts: 624 ✭✭✭Humberto Salazar


    ECM virtually chucks in the cold towel. Atlantic active, various low pressure systems rolling across towards us over next ten days. Alternating between mild southwesterlies and cooler west northwesterlies. Typical January weather and nothing there for coldies. Taking a weeks break from close examination of the models. Might sneak a quick FI peak but I think we now can write January off, and look toward February.


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    #1218
    bazlers
    Registered Users Posts: 692 ✭✭✭bazlers


    Humberto Salazar wrote: »
    ECM virtually chucks in the cold towel. Atlantic active, various low pressure systems rolling across towards us over next ten days. Alternating between mild southwesterlies and cooler west northwesterlies. Typical January weather and nothing there for coldies. Taking a weeks break from close examination of the models. Might sneak a quick FI peak but I think we now can write January off, and look toward February.

    Your kinda putting all your eggs in one model, but whos to say your not right.
    Ups downs lefts rights. Tomorrow is D day I believe.


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    #1219
    King of Spades
    Registered Users Posts: 143 ✭✭King of Spades


    Humberto Salazar wrote: »
    ECM virtually chucks in the cold towel. Atlantic active, various low pressure systems rolling across towards us over next ten days. Alternating between mild southwesterlies and cooler west northwesterlies. Typical January weather and nothing there for coldies. Taking a weeks break from close examination of the models. Might sneak a quick FI peak but I think we now can write January off, and look toward February.

    It’s interesting that you are writing off January yet both MT and met eireann are forecasting cold and wintry weather to arrive by the middle of next week.


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    #1220
    Villain
    Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    ECM is very poor and goes against the GEFS ensembles which are cool but no severe cold.

    FI is about +96 at the moment in my opinion.


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    #1221
    bazlers
    Registered Users Posts: 692 ✭✭✭bazlers


    King of Spades wrote: »
    It’s interesting that you are writing off January yet both MT and met eireann are forecasting cold and wintry weather to arrive by the middle of next week.

    In fairness its not the deep cold that had been originally forecast.. although you are right there is pissibly time for a bit of an upgrade like i think could possibly happen but need to be showing its hand by tomorrow i feel, or as he states it will be February to see when the next charge comes.


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    #1222
    bazlers
    Registered Users Posts: 692 ✭✭✭bazlers


    Apologies humberto salazar if i put words in your mouth there but i had a strong coffee : )


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    #1223
    Humberto Salazar
    Closed Accounts Posts: 624 ✭✭✭Humberto Salazar


    bazlers wrote: »
    Your kinda putting all your eggs in one model, but whos to say your not right.
    Ups downs lefts rights. Tomorrow is D day I believe.

    I think the trends on all models haven't been good in the last three days. I'd much rather say we're looking at a super upcoming cold spell, but in my opinion, we are not. It doesn't mean we won't get one but I think over the next coupke of weeks we are going to see the Atlantic influence dominate.


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    #1224
    Humberto Salazar
    Closed Accounts Posts: 624 ✭✭✭Humberto Salazar


    bazlers wrote: »
    Apologies humberto salazar if i put words in your mouth there but i had a strong coffee : )

    No sweat, we all (99%) here want the snow and cold, but it's a hell of a roller coaster this year.


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    #1225
    Humberto Salazar
    Closed Accounts Posts: 624 ✭✭✭Humberto Salazar


    King of Spades wrote: »
    It’s interesting that you are writing off January yet both MT and met eireann are forecasting cold and wintry weather to arrive by the middle of next week.

    Mother Nature will determine who ends up right. The SSW event last week doesn't look to have done us any favours. LA Nina continues. Decent upper temps never quite get here. We need a huge helping hand and I don't see where it can come from. Greenland highs and Scandi highs are one thing, but getting them to deliver is another. Anyway this is not the right thread for winter discussion. I'll leave it there and continue in the other thread.


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    #1226
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,878 ✭✭✭pauldry


    I love the way people are saying that they will take a break from looking at the models but its impossible not to look. We are all addicted!

    Anyways the forecast looks slightly better on GFS than it did yesterday but I think theres a tendency for the cold to be in the North. Might we see what happened one year that Ulster got buried in snow and the rest of Ireland had little or none.


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    #1227
    sicknotexi
    Registered Users Posts: 1,064 ✭✭✭sicknotexi


    pauldry wrote: »
    I love the way people are saying that they will take a break from looking at the models but its impossible not to look. We are all addicted!

    Anyways the forecast looks slightly better on GFS than it did yesterday but I think theres a tendency for the cold to be in the North. Might we see what happened one year that Ulster got buried in snow and the rest of Ireland had little or none.

    Could happen. More North you are can rarely be bad for snow chances and especially in the battleground scenarios been mooted.

    The models have seemed to swung less cold in recent days, there's no getting away from that fact. If we don't see improvements by the weekend then its looking like the end of January cold spell will be a bust.


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    #1228
    Nqp15hhu
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    pauldry wrote: »
    I love the way people are saying that they will take a break from looking at the models but its impossible not to look. We are all addicted!

    Anyways the forecast looks slightly better on GFS than it did yesterday but I think theres a tendency for the cold to be in the North. Might we see what happened one year that Ulster got buried in snow and the rest of Ireland had little or none.

    Yes please... the rest of the island did get a snow event last week...and a lot more severe frosts.


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    #1229
    Davaeo09
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,220 ✭✭✭Davaeo09


    Lets all hope for an all Ireland approach to the snow cover? :D


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    #1230
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Not looking at models for another week but not avoiding tweets
    This one makes a valid point

    https://twitter.com/peacockreports/status/1349664429185634306?s=19


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    #1231
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    The stratospheric warmimg more or less looks like it has been a bust for us if we look at most of the latest ouput. If we were going to get deep cold it would be showing up by now. A swing back to a very cold outlook is very unlikely now before February. It seems the la nina influence has won out over the SSW in our region.


This discussion has been closed.
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