FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Slashermcguirk

It’s one set of runs and still in FI, could all change again by tomorrow. I wouldn’t get hung up one set of runs changing. Every day they seem to be changing.

Let’s see what transpires over the next couple of days.

TheMilkyPirate

As Slasher says it's one set of runs. Saying that they were brutal and it was pretty much all of them, Need to see a shift back by tonight.

bazlers

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

It’s one set of runs and still in FI, could all change again by tomorrow. I wouldn’t get hung up one set of runs changing. Every day they seem to be changing.

Let’s see what transpires over the next couple of days.

It has to be said there is serious cold in russia stretching into Finland building now. There is always a chance....

Reversal

Up until yesterday morning it wasn't looking like we'd get a sustained high into Greenland at all. Remember all the runs had a mid Atlantic ridge collapsing into the Iberian high? Yesterday there was a big swing to sustain heights in the GL region. Yes now today the positioning of those heights has drifted in the wrong direction and surface conditions in Ireland are muck. However, the overall pattern of HLB is still consistent, which it wasn't before yesterday.

Any finer detail is just for fun beyond 120, so I'd be happier with the big picture patttern now than we were seeing just 48hrs ago.

jArgHA

Followers for the past week watching the FI thread: (me included!)

JanuarySnowstor

Cold spell what cold spell lol
It has vanished over night and this mornings 06z is even worse

ninebeanrows

Barely any ECM ensembles bring 850hPa temperatures below -5, around 3 or 4 members get them to -7 by day 10. There is no scope in the members for any proper cold air.

Not one member brings 850hPa temperatures below -8 in the 10 day period.

Cold and unsettled with some hill snow, possibly some slushy mess to low ground.

Sleety_Rain

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

Barely any ECM ensembles bring 850hPa temperatures below -5, around 3 or 4 members get them to -7 by day 10. There is no scope in the members for any proper cold air.

Not one member brings 850hPa temperatures below -8 in the 10 day period.

Cold and unsettled with some hill snow, possibly some slushy mess to low ground.

How reliable is that at 8 to 10 days with what's going on up at the pole?
Theoretically this morning's overnight models are basically calling the biggest strat warm a bust
A Scamstrat basically
When its done we have normal January weather

ninebeanrows

The mean zonal stratospheric wind has reversed but heading back to more normal values by later in month

nacho libre

Once they all flip to less cold at this range, its not a wobble, it's an omnious sign. I get the point that there is still serious cold lurking nearby, but it just seems the theme of this winter is for us not to be able tap into it despite the fantastic nh profile. That is almost more frustrating than if we had a raging pv. We are seeing now in the outputs why a split ssw is preferable to a displaced PV that leaves some of the PV over the North Atlantic

KingdomRushed

6z is slightly stronger pressure around Greenland in latter frames than the 0z GFS. But overall it is also quite disappointing. No real cold at all for Ireland

pauldry

The only true time frame when you can say there wont be snow is the day before.

I still think we are in with a chance of seeing snowfalls before the end of January but I seem to be the outlier!

Villain

The only thing for sure is calling beyond 7d days with any certainty is silly and that goes for ramping or calling it all a bust.

The big switch in the *MEAN* on GEFS in two runs shows how things can change, the trends for cold are bad at present but if you want to call winter bust then can I have the lotto numbers please?

The same goes for those silly posts on some pages saying the worst snow and cold since 2010 is coming.

TheMilkyPirate

06z is an improvement over the 0z with stronger Greenland heights but still poor.

Quite a dramatic flip by the models over the space of 12hrs

Slashermcguirk

I agree with you, the charts are changing every day. Even if it was forecasting snowmageddon in 4-5 days we would be saying hold your horses it might not materialise. I wouldn’t be surprised if come the weekend we are back on a rollercoaster

pauldry wrote: »

The only true time frame when you can say there wont be snow is the day before.

I still think we are in with a chance of seeing snowfalls before the end of January but I seem to be the outlier!

nacho libre

pauldry wrote: »

The only true time frame when you can say there wont be snow is the day before.

I still think we are in with a chance of seeing snowfalls before the end of January but I seem to be the outlier!

There could well be wet snow at times, but the SSW raised expectations of something more significant. That is looking rather unlikely now. When we see a sudden turn for the worse it's rare to see a favourable switch back. However i will be more than glad if this evenings run say otherwise

Longing

Downgrades with every run.

nacho libre

AuntySnow wrote: »

How reliable is that at 8 to 10 days with what's going on up at the pole?
Theoretically this morning's overnight models are basically calling the biggest strat warm a bust
A Scamstrat basically
When its done we have normal January weather

The thing is If we think back to 2010 and 2018, once the models got a handle on the ssw there was a consistent signal for a colder outbreak that never really wavered bar one ECM run. We are not just seeing that this time. When we see a consensus build overnight to show less cold conditions its not a great sign. As i said i will be happy to be proven wrong if we see a flip the otherway in subsequent runs, but how often have you seen that yourself?

Billcarson

Is the second half of January curse about to strike again??
Looks like it,well surprise, surprise.
My money has always been on feb if we are going to get a decent cold spell.

KingdomRushed

Greenland heights are stronger on the Gefs mean for the 6z also right out past 200 hours. So a small step backwards perhaps. Maybe there is still some hope of a reversal of fortune

bosco12345

Tyrone212 wrote: »

Easterlys are terrible for me. I think North Donegal does well from them, the only place really in Ulster from 2018 that I can remember that did(Monaghan,Cavan did alright i think). My Brother lives near buncrana he was under streamers for days, his car was buried and I had none. Interestingly Shrove in Donegal is further East than Waterford Kilkenny and pretty much identical to Kildare Town. That area of Donegal is exposed to an Easterly.

South east cavan right up to cavan town (centre of cavan) got absolutely buried in snow but head out west after cavan town and only a slight covering. Think monaghan did quite well to but not entirely sure. What I'd do for a repeat of that 2018 beast

nacho libre

nacho libre wrote: »

The thing is If we think back to 2010 and 2018, once the models got a handle on the ssw there was a consistent signal for a colder outbreak that never really wavered bar one ECM run. We are not just seeing that this time. When we see a consensus build overnight to show less cold conditions its not a great sign. As i said i will be happy to be proven wrong if we see a flip the otherway in subsequent runs, but how often have you seen that yourself?

I'll just leave this here

https://twitter.com/Arklowweather/status/1349317019133472770?s=19

bazlers

nacho libre wrote: »

There could well be wet snow at times, but the SSW raised expectations of something more significant. That is looking rather unlikely now. When we a sudden turn for the worse it's rare to see a favourable switch back. However i will be more than glad if this evenings run say otherwise

I too think there will be a chance of snowfall but i do agree the severe cold seems to be diluted. What i can see happening is this less than severe cold sticking around for quiet sometime and then we might see incursion of colder temps which would produce the goods.
Which i will say is a disappointment compared to some of the more historic equaling temps that were on show earlier.
But as has been said its still a good distance off yet and there could be significant upgrades and unfortunately further downgrades too!

Humberto Salazar

Billcarson wrote: »

Is the second half of January curse about to strike again??
Looks like it,well surprise, surprise.
My money has always been on feb if we are going to get a decent cold spell.

The daffodils are well up through the soil now, can't be long before warm Feb spring sun bring them on further... I think Feb will be very mild. But nothing scientific or model based.

sryanbruen

nacho libre wrote: »

The thing is If we think back to 2010 and 2018, once the models got a handle on the ssw there was a consistent signal for a colder outbreak that never really wavered bar one ECM run. We are not just seeing that this time. When we see a consensus build overnight to show less cold conditions its not a great sign. As i said i will be happy to be proven wrong if we see a flip the otherway in subsequent runs, but how often have you seen that yourself?

2010 didn't have a SSW though so that comparison is already out the window, there were other things at the time that would have led to unusual certainty such as a favourable North Atlantic SST profile or tropical forcing. 2018 had 3 spikes of uncertainty associated with 3 up spikes in warming. We're going to have another minor warming during the weekend into early next week.

The problem with today's runs are everything has trended west from the Greenland ridge to the west Europe low so that the cold air is displaced into the north Atlantic/Iceland, even from ensemble members. The fact this has occurred leaves much confidence to be desired.

Tropical forcing remains weak and this is likely another reason as well as the unusual SSW evolution, that the models have been finding it difficult on how to get a hand in the blocking. I gave my thoughts that I don't expect a significant cold spell because of a vortex lobe over North America with the Eurasian vortex lobe also being somewhat on the large side for comfort, intertwined by an Atlantic or Greenland ridge.

Just more noise to those who have been saying this is "nailed on" is absolute nonsense. Fantasy Island couldn't reign more true than it does now.

lucernarian

AuntySnow wrote: »

I'll just leave this here

https://twitter.com/Arklowweather/status/1349317019133472770?s=19

That comparison in charts is actually quite similar? I don't know what point was being made there.

Zogabomb

lucernarian wrote: »

That comparison in charts is actually quite similar? I don't know what point was being made there.

I think it means that only small differences in the 4-5 day time period will mean big swings in the later output.

lucernarian

Zogabomb wrote: »

I think it means that only small differences in the 4-5 day time period will mean big swings in the later output.

A more side-by-side comparison using e.g. GFS analysis charts would have given more clarity, but fair enough

lucernarian

lucernarian wrote: »

That comparison in charts is actually quite similar? I don't know what point was being made there.

That the 5 day charts usually verify and beyond that they don't because small changes at 5 days become big ones at 10

Here's day 7 for example from the same ecmwf run last friday

Here's Met Éireann's forecast for Friday (2 days time now) based on today's 00z illustrating the point
Fi is 5 days ,probably 4

"
Friday: Friday morning will start cold, dry and bright but cloud will build during the morning, with rain affecting western areas during the afternoon and evening. Afternoon temperatures will range between 5 degrees in the northeast to 9 degrees in the southwest. Southerly winds will be generally light to moderate, but will become fresh near coasts in the west.

Friday night: Friday night will be wet and breezy with widespread and occasionally heavy rain. It will be mild in most places with overnight temperatures of 7 to 10 degrees. There will be moderate to fresh southerly winds, stronger near coasts."

pauldry

I can see why everyone is getting so down as I look at the charts in greater detail. We seem to be very close to the cold as feared however if the floodgates open even once or twice at least we will get snowfalls and even if we get a couple of snowy mornings thats all you remember in years to come.

For example on January 31st a few years ago there was heavy wintry showers of hail and snow overnight and that day myself and the kids played in it all day before it was gone the next day. Something like that will materialize Id say.

Even in Spain where they have bucketloads of the stuff it mainly fell over a 24 hour period not over 3 weeks like people are hoping here.