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January 2019 Boards weather forecast contest

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Comments

  • #52
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,584 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Good morning, I mean afternoon, no it's morning. Well, a bit less confusion on these matters ...

    IMT finished on 5.8 (tried to slide down to 5.7, not quite).

    MAX 13.3, MIN --5.8 C (subject to verification)

    PRC finished at 57%.

    SUN was fairly generous in the last three days, looks to be close to 180% of normal, but that short a boost leaves us at 70% for the month.

    Will score the bonus from 21st for now, subject to further investigation once the MS is published.

    Table of provisional scoring will be posted in about an hour.


  • #53
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,584 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Provisional scoring for January, 2019


    FORECASTER ____________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN___First snow ___ Totals

    Sunflower3 ______________17 _ 18 _ 17 _ 10*_ 09*_____ 06 _______ 77

    waterways ______________ 20 _ 16 _ 19 _ 05*_ 07*_____ 08 _______ 75

    Tae laidir _______________ 20 _ 20 _ 10 _ 07*_ 09*_____ 04 _______ 70

    MrSkinner _______________17 _ 17 _ 13 _ 12*_ 02*_____ 09 _______ 70

    Jpmarn _________________21 _ 11 _ 13 _ 14*_ 02*_____ 08 _______ 69

    JCX BXC ________________15 _ 20 _ 10 _ 10*_ 01*_____ 09 _______ 65

    mickger844posts __ (-4) ___11 _ 13 _ 17 _ 10*_ 09*_____ 09 __69-4 = 65

    DOCARCH _______________21 _ 15 _ 06 _ 12*_ 02*_____ 07 _______ 63

    Adam240610 ____________ 15 _ 18 _ 07 _ 14*_ 00*_____ 09 _______ 63

    YanSno _________________23 _ 10 _ 12 _ 07*_ 02*_____ 08 _______ 62

    Rikand _________________ 17 _ 13 _ 18 _ 08*_ 01*_____ 05 _______ 62

    Joe Public _______________10 _ 19 _ 09 _ 13*_ 03*_____ 08 _______ 62



    ___ Con Sensus __________ 15 _ 16 _ 10 _ 09*_ 02*_____ 09 _______ 61


    Kindred Spirit ____________21 _ 14 _ 10 _ 01*_ 09*_____ 03 _______ 58

    Rameire ____ (-6) ________19 _ 16 _ 11 _ 07*_ 09*_____ 00 __62-6= 56

    pauldry _________________22 _ 10 _ 02*_ 10*_ 05*_____06 _______ 55

    john mac _______________ 16 _ 02 _ 15 _ 06*_ 04*_____ 06 _______ 49


    NormaL _________________18 _ 13 _ 08 _ 05*_ 05*_____ 00 _______ 49


    dasa29 _________________ 17 _ 08 _ 12 _ 02*_ 02*_____ 07 _______ 48

    200motels _______________14 _ 19 _ 01*_ 02*_ 03*_____09 _______ 48

    Bsal ____________________15 _ 15 _ 01*_ 06*_ 02*_____08 _______ 47

    Artane2002 ______________08 _ 19 _ 01*_ 09*_ 02*_____07 _______ 46

    sdanseo ________________ 07 _ 17 _ 01*_ 08*_ 02*_____10 _______ 45

    M.T. Cranium ____________ 07 _ 17 _ 00 _ 12*_ 02*_____ 07 _______ 45

    Dacogawa _______________15 _ 12 _ 01*_ 02*_ 03*_____08 _______ 41

    sryanbruen ______________16 _ 00 _ 06 _ 10*_ 01*_____ 08 _______ 41

    derekon ________________ 00 _ 13 _ 00 _ 15*_ 02*_____ 09 _______ 39

    BLIZZARD7 ___ (-10) _____ 00 _ 05 _ 00 _ 14*_ 02*_____ 07 __28-10=18
    ____________________________________________________________________

    * minimum progression boosted scores for PRC, SUN and low end of MIN (one point given to less extreme out of range and to lowest raw score, rest of the field within normal scoring progression there).

    Subject to any revisions on the 4th of February, will post either confirmation announcement or revised scoring.



    ========================================================


    (actual forecasts)

    FORECASTER ____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN _____ First snow


    Jpmarn _________________6.1 _ 14.2 _ --6.5 _ 075 _ 110 _____ 25 Jan

    YanSno _________________6.0 _ 14.3 _ --6.6 _ 095 _ 110 _____ 16 Jan

    pauldry _________________5.5 _ 14.3 _ --7.7 _ 084 _ 100 _____ 28 Jan

    Kindred Spirit ____________5.4 _ 13.9 _ --6.8 _ 120 _ 090 ______ 4 Feb

    DOCARCH _______________5.4 _ 13.8 _ --7.2 _ 080 _ 110 _____ 15 Jan

    waterways ______________ 5.3 _ 13.7 _ --5.9 _ 101 _ 092 _____ 16 Jan

    Tae laidir _______________ 5.3 _ 13.3 _ --6.8 _ 095 _ 095 ______ 2 Feb

    Rameire ____ (-6) ________5.2 _ 13.7 _ --6.7 _ 095 _ 090 _____ 14 Feb


    NormaL _________________5.1 _ 14.0 _ --7.0 _ 100 _ 100 _____ 15 Feb


    dasa29 _________________ 5.0 _ 14.5 _ --5.0 _ 110 _ 110 _____ 15 Jan

    Rikand _________________ 5.0 _ 14.0 _ --6.0 _ 090 _ 120 _____ 31 Jan

    MrSkinner _______________5.0 _ 13.6 _ --6.5 _ 081 _ 111 _____ 23 Jan

    Sunflower3 ______________5.0 _ 13.5 _ --5.5 _ 085 _ 090 _____ 28 Jan

    sryanbruen ______________4.9 _ 15.3 _ --7.2 _ 085 _ 120 _____ 17 Jan

    john mac _______________ 4.9 _ 13.5 _ --6.3 _ 097 _ 103 _____ 12 Jan

    Dacogawa _______________4.8 _ 14.1 _ --8.7 _ 110 _ 103 _____ 17 Jan

    JCX BXC ________________ 4.8 _ 13.3 _ --6.8 _ 085 _ 120 _____ 23 Jan


    ___ Con Sensus __________ 4.8 _ 13.7 _ --6.8 _ 086 _ 110 _____ 19 Jan


    Adam240610 ____________ 4.8 _ 13.1 _ --7.1 _ 075 _ 123 _____ 19 Jan

    Bsal ____________________4.8 _ 12.8 _ --8.5 _ 097 _ 115 _____ 25 Jan

    200motels _______________4.7 _ 13.2 _ --8.9 _ 111 _ 104 _____ 19 Jan

    mickger844posts __ (-4) ___ 4.4 _ 14.0 _ --5.5 _ 085 _ 090 _____ 18 Jan

    Joe Public _______________ 4.3 _ 13.4 _ --6.9 _ 079 _ 109 _____ 17 Jan

    Artane2002 ______________4.1 _ 13.2 _ --8.0 _ 086 _ 117 _____ 15 Jan

    sdanseo ________________ 4.0 _ 13.6 _ --9.0 _ 090 _ 121 _____ 21 Jan

    M.T. Cranium ____________ 4.0 _ 13.0 _-10.0 _ 080 _ 120 _____ 15 Jan

    derekon _________________3.2 _ 14.0 _-11.0 _ 067 _ 120 _____ 19 Jan

    BLIZZARD7 ___ (-10) ______1.7 _ 11.8 _-17.0 _ 075 _ 120 _____ 15 Jan

    __________________________________________________________

    __________________________________________________________


  • #54
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,584 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    A check of the MS reveals no new information about exact dates for snowfall and confirms the other data used in scoring, although SUN calculated out to a slightly higher 75%, that still low enough to trigger the mercy rule.

    Therefore the provisional scoring is declared final version. Well done to sunflower3, waterways, and (tied third) tae laidir and MrSkinner.

    Without the scoring boosts, the highest raw score was 71, so the increases were probably not that big a factor. Because of the uncertainty on snowfall and the narrow range of guesses (compared to what it could have been) I think the scoring range used there (based on multiples of two day errors) is fair, it gives an average of six to seven points.

    On to February (the wonderful thing about January is, when I'm done this table, I'm done period -- no annual table. Yay!)


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