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UFC/MMA Gambling. **NO AFTER-TIMING**

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    #5282
    mailburner
    Registered Users Posts: 23,814 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    I fancy gdr also but she'll need to keep it standing which won't
    be easy and penas striking although not on the same level is still decent
    compared to most of the division

    Pena had some success clinching with Valentina and taking valentina down before gettting armbarred and looks quite strong so I do think gdr could struggle early on so it'll be clinch from the start for pena I think and takedown after takedown attempt
    If I remember right didn't Nunes even take gdr down for most of that fight which speaks volumes for gdr's striking.

    I think it'll be a one sided beating if she can keep it standing though


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    #5283
    Mellor
    Registered Users Posts: 39,024 ✭✭✭✭Mellor


    Taking Josh Culibao win, 2nd sub and 2nd TKO


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    #5284
    Mellor
    Registered Users Posts: 39,024 ✭✭✭✭Mellor


    Taking Josh Culibao win, 2nd sub and 2nd TKO


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    #5285
    eagle eye
    Registered Users Posts: 37,512 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    I don't understand and how Perez is the outsider in this one coming up. I'm backing him to win inside the distance at 11/4.


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    #5286
    mailburner
    Registered Users Posts: 23,814 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    I'm a bit surprised Ortega is 13/8 to be beat Jung

    He hasn't fought in almost two years but changed camps shortly
    after the loss to holloway and has been cricitical of his previous team so
    now he has a chance to show the world how much he has improved especially
    regarding his striking.


    The ko for me is way overpriced at 17/2 even if a sub might seem more likely.
    His last 6 wins have been 3 of each and jungs last two losses have been by ko.
    I think Jungs agressive style is tailor made for Ortega also.


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    #5287
    mailburner
    Registered Users Posts: 23,814 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    Ortega 7/4 main bet

    Ortega by ko 10/1 (Betfred)

    small bets on ortega to win by ko in rounds 1/2/3/4/5 22s/30/40/60/80/1



    small bets on adrade ko 4/1 which probably won't be easy being so much smaller but I don't think she'll have any respect for chookagian's power and will just keep coming at her

    almeida ko 11/5 anyones guess how this pans out, the old almeida came out swinging for the fences....probably the same tactics again so it'll probably be exciting while it lasts.

    Card starts at 9 which I've just spotted


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    #5288
    joeguevara
    Registered Users Posts: 7,995 ✭✭✭joeguevara


    mailburner wrote: »
    Ortega 7/4 main bet

    Ortega by ko 10/1 (Betfred)

    small bets on ortega to win by ko in rounds 1/2/3/4/5 22s/30/40/60/80/1



    small bets on adrade ko 4/1 which probably won't be easy being so much smaller but I don't think she'll have any respect for chookagian's power and will just keep coming at her

    almeida ko 11/5 anyones guess how this pans out, the old almeida came out swinging for the fences....probably the same tactics again so it'll probably be exciting while it lasts.

    Card starts at 9 which I've just spotted

    Hopefully the KO bets didn’t make your Ortega win redundant. Thought the head strikes when zombie was on ground would have stopped it.

    Does KO include TKO as rarely there is an actual KO in ufc. Different interpretation than boxing.


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    #5289
    mailburner
    Registered Users Posts: 23,814 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    joeguevara wrote: »
    Hopefully the KO bets didn’t make your Ortega win redundant. Thought the head strikes when zombie was on ground would have stopped it.

    Does KO include TKO as rarely there is an actual KO in ufc. Different interpretation than boxing.

    tko would have done, suprised it didn't come
    ko bets were only small bets so no real harm done as
    had close to my max bet on Ortega....rarely had less
    to sweat about, much different fighter now


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    #5290
    joeguevara
    Registered Users Posts: 7,995 ✭✭✭joeguevara


    mailburner wrote: »
    tko would have done, suprised it didn't come
    ko bets were only small bets so no real harm done as
    had close to my max bet on Ortega....rarely had less
    to sweat about, much different fighter now

    Honestly thought zombie would win before the fight. Completely outclassed and never really got going. Even in the last two rounds when he new he had to finish he couldn’t do anything. But my god, how he didn’t get knocked out with some of those punches.

    Fair play for your win. I know what it feels like to be sweating a result.


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    #5291
    D.Q
    Registered Users Posts: 6,054 ✭✭✭D.Q


    150e on Gaethje to win.

    Very possibly the stupidest money I've ever spent but sure listen.


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    #5292
    Homelander
    Registered Users Posts: 4,346 ✭✭✭Homelander


    D.Q wrote: »
    150e on Gaethje to win.

    Very possibly the stupidest money I've ever spent but sure listen.

    Spent the same on Dustin to beat Khabib even though I knew it was incredibly unlikely.

    Justin has a better chance, though still not a comfortable bet. I'll probably still throw €100 on him to win.


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    #5293
    mailburner
    Registered Users Posts: 23,814 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    The price on Gaethje is huge now at 11/4 and has been drifting all the time.

    It's too hard not to back him at those odds!


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    #5294
    Mellor
    Registered Users Posts: 39,024 ✭✭✭✭Mellor


    mailburner wrote: »
    The price on Gaethje is huge now at 11/4 and has been drifting all the time.

    It's too hard not to back him at those odds!

    What do you think his chances of winning are?
    50%? 10%?

    Dominant fighters/champions like Khabib become overvalued eventually.


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    #5295
    eagle eye
    Registered Users Posts: 37,512 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    If a knockout wasn't possible then about 4/1 but it's a big part of MMA so realistically I'd say his odds should be about 2/1 when you consider he's won four in a row by knockout.
    We keep hearing about his wrestling ability, if he can stay on his feet he's going to get the knockout.
    Being able to hear his coach was a huge help to him in the last fight too and he'll have that advantage again.
    I think he's too good of value at his current price not to back him.
    If you were getting these odds on similar fighters you'd make a lot of money over time.


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    #5296
    Mellor
    Registered Users Posts: 39,024 ✭✭✭✭Mellor


    eagle eye wrote: »
    when you consider he's won four in a row by knockout.

    Plus 19 out of 22 wins by knockout overall.


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    #5297
    mailburner
    Registered Users Posts: 23,814 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    Mellor wrote: »
    What do you think his chances of winning are?
    50%? 10%?

    Dominant fighters/champions like Khabib become overvalued eventually.


    I honestly don't know given how Khabib has dominated everyone he's faced but I'd be pricing Gaethje at around 7/4-2/1
    He might take Justin down at will and he might struggle to take Justin down so it's very hard to know.

    Gaethje does look like he could be his biggest test to date.
    Can khabib take him down and keep him there?
    My gut feeling tells me he may have to wrestle with Khabib for most
    of this in order to win which doesn't bode well for him.

    I think Khabibs striking will have improved so much since we last seen him also.

    This is Khabibs last big test in the division really so everything after this
    won't even be a contest as far as I can see.


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    #5298
    Porthallian
    Registered Users Posts: 2,342 ✭✭✭Porthallian


    My 2 cents on the fight.
    Not sure about other sites, PP have the same odds for a Gaethje win as a points victory for Khabib: 5/2
    I know which one I'd prefer.

    Justin's 2 losses were by KO/TKO but I see this one going the distance. Big test for Khabib but I think that relentless pressure will eventually tell, and he'll get Justin down enough times to breeze to another decision win.

    IMO the only way Justin wins is by a KO or TKO, which is 7/2. It would shock the world and I'd like to see it, but I just can't see past Khabib

    Will the year he's had have any effect on the mental side of his fight? Probably not.


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    #5299
    Mellor
    Registered Users Posts: 39,024 ✭✭✭✭Mellor


    mailburner wrote: »
    My gut feeling tells me he may have to wrestle with Khabib for most of this in order to win which doesn't bode well for him.
    That will tire Khabib out a lot too. If Justin has gas in round 4 and 5. It won’t be fun for Khabin


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    #5300
    mailburner
    Registered Users Posts: 23,814 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


      Mellor wrote: »
      That will tire Khabib out a lot too. If Justin has gas in round 4 and 5. It won’t be fun for Khabin

      Wittman might just be the difference between the two.


      He'll have the perfect game plan for khabib if there is such a thing


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      #5301
      Fromvert
      Registered Users Posts: 5,081 ✭✭✭Fromvert


      Whittaker vs Cannonier priced as a flip stands out when looking at the prices. Now Cannonier is good but when he's moved up a level he's lost (Jan, Reyes and Glover) albeit that was at LHW. Whittaker is one of the best at MW and I'll be backing him to get the win here.


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      #5302
      eagle eye
      Registered Users Posts: 37,512 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


      Fromvert wrote:
      Whittaker vs Cannonier priced as a flip stands out when looking at the prices. Now Cannonier is good but when he's moved up a level he's lost (Jan, Reyes and Glover) albeit that was at LHW. Whittaker is one of the best at MW and I'll be backing him to get the win here.
      Very hard time call. Cannonier looks like a beast at welterweight. Whittaker is a class act but he's taken punches in recent fights and he can't do that against Cannonier.
      It's a flip between a Whittaker decision win and a Cannonier ko for me. I won't be betting on it.


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      #5303
      mailburner
      Registered Users Posts: 23,814 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


      I fancy Cannonier by ko

      I wasn't impressed with whittaker against Till and I honestly think those
      wars with Romero and the quick ko v izzy have left their mark


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      #5304
      but1er
      Registered Users Posts: 2,505 ✭✭✭but1er


      after that weight inn ill be putting more money on Justin Gaethje, Kahbib seemed relived to make weight


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      #5305
      mailburner
      Registered Users Posts: 23,814 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


      took the 11/4 on justin, don't think he drift anymore

      going to back cannonier also at 10/11 (ko is only 13/8 so no value for me)

      Tuivasa also for me at 10/11 but maybe the ko in round one at 7/2
      If it goes past round two I think he'll tire and it's anyone fight but if he
      connects he'll put struve away I think


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      #5306
      mailburner
      Registered Users Posts: 23,814 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


      nxhEvwo.png


      I've seen bookies taking the piss but paddy power shame on you


      aspinall 6/1, edwards :eek: sean o malley 4/1

      The list goes on and on


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      #5307
      but1er
      Registered Users Posts: 2,505 ✭✭✭but1er


      mailburner wrote: »
      nxhEvwo.png


      I've seen bookies taking the piss but paddy power shame on you


      aspinall 6/1, edwards :eek: sean o malley 4/1

      The list goes on and on

      Leon edwards not even ranked anymore..


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      #5308
      AlmightyCushion
      Moderators, Education Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 35,046 Mod ✭✭✭✭AlmightyCushion


      mailburner wrote: »
      nxhEvwo.png


      I've seen bookies taking the piss but paddy power shame on you


      aspinall 6/1, edwards :eek: sean o malley 4/1

      The list goes on and on

      McGregor to be welterweight champ is only 3/1. Tom Aspinall, who the fúck is that guy. How is he only 6/1 to be heavyweight champ. Anyone who takes these bets is mental.


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      #5309
      vafankillar
      Registered Users Posts: 524 ✭✭✭vafankillar


      holy shít! i took the day off work on sunday, and was staying up late tonight in preparation before just realizing now it's actually on normal-ish time for us for a change :O


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      #5310
      Mellor
      Registered Users Posts: 39,024 ✭✭✭✭Mellor


      joeguevara wrote: »
      Hopefully the KO bets didn’t make your Ortega win redundant. Thought the head strikes when zombie was on ground would have stopped it.

      Does KO include TKO as rarely there is an actual KO in ufc. Different interpretation than boxing.
      KO/TKO is treated the same in both boxing and MMA betting.


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      #5311
      d00mk1n
      Registered Users Posts: 116 ✭✭d00mk1n


      mailburner wrote: »
      nxhEvwo.png


      I've seen bookies taking the piss but paddy power shame on you


      aspinall 6/1, edwards :eek: sean o malley 4/1

      The list goes on and on

      They took this one down


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