UFC/MMA Gambling. **NO AFTER-TIMING**

eagle eye

Mellor wrote:

What you think will happen and the best value aren't the same. I'm not saying Leon will def win. I'm saying Khabig being favourite on such a jump stinks of overhype.

My whole point was about value and not about who wins.

mailburner

I'm on Means too and pts at 11/4
rodriguez pts 11/4 as Dalby has a concrete head

There's a few I think are value like chookagian at 21/10, no idea why she's such
a big price against calvillo

shogun 13/8 for me is a 50/50 fight

Jordan wright 21/10 all wins by finish, think he may be overpriced and buckley very short now after his highlight reel ko. I think one of these may be getting stopped in the first.
If wright somehow got buckley down the sub would be huge at 14/1 but I've a feeling he'll stand and bang.

Mellor

eagle eye wrote: »

My whole point was about value and not about who wins.

If you are saying Khabig is value, then you must also be saying you think he wins a large percentage of the time.

eagle eye

Mellor wrote:

If you are saying Khabig is value, then you must also be saying you think he wins a large percentage of the time.

I'm saying that looking Ng for value means looking at all potential outcomes.
Regardless of the level of opposition that Chimaev has faced he has a 100% inside the distance record. He's never went past round 2.

Leon Edwards is an excellent fighter who normally gets decision wins.

That's the two best options available.

I put Chimaev inside the distance on top because the unknown is his gas tank so we don't know if he can survive a third round if it gets there. So decision win for Edwards is slightly less likely than a win inside the distance for Chimaev.

Mellor

You have to also consider the odds not just how likely it is. Leon is a pretty big underdog, if the fight is anywhere near a 50/50, then Edwards is value.
Edward by decision seems likely.

mailburner

Josh parisian by ko round 1 5/2 Hills

one of these is going to sleep in round one I think and parisian will come out swinging as will porter.
Porter is coming off a round one ko loss back in Aug, parisian won his last 6 by ko in which 5 were in round 1



not sure I can bet on smith again after his last two performances albeit against top guys but the sub at 4s if he was on his game would appeal to me

carlyle rarely goes the distance but I like the the 4s on a spike pts win

mailburner

I fancied vettori a little to beat hermansson and was thinking he'd be around 6/4 13/8 or thereabout

8/11 vettori 11/10 hermansson


I'm shocked vettori is the favourite here

MUFC91CS

mailburner wrote: »

I fancied vettori a little to beat hermansson and was thinking he'd be around 6/4 13/8 or thereabout

8/11 vettori 11/10 hermansson


I'm shocked vettori is the favourite here

Think Vettori is chronically underrated so fancied him myself but yeah was expecting the price to be much bigger. Still wouldn't be backing Hermansson either however.

mailburner

I fancy Oliveira at 6/4 and I can't even tell you why as I'm not sure

Gut feeling is all, big step up but his striking has improved so much and this
is his big shot, loses this and he'll fall back into the pack.
I think he'll be able to handle the pressure Tony brings also.

I might side with Tony over 5 but over 3 I like Oliveira

Not sure how he wins exactly pts or sub

tinpib

Back by popular demand my big priced UFC picks :pac:

Couldn't be bothered posting recently, probably just as well as not many have landed.

But I was shocked when I went through the prices today and saw JDS at 16/5 and Gane at 2/9, that is insane to me and screams hype train. I know that JDS has been KO'ed a lot recently and is up against Father Time but he is a huge, huge step up in opponent for Gane.

A few other hail mary big priced bets

Tony on pts at 3/1 as it's only 3 rounds

Virna Jandiroba by sub 17/2, looks like sub vs sub merchant.

eagle eye

I like Gane round 1 at 21/10.
Holland decision at 9/4
Jandiroba by decision 21/10
Oliveira by finish 12/5
Figueiredo round 1 at 3/1

I'm a huge fan of Moreno but Figueiredo is all wrong for him I think.

mailburner

Khaos williams evens pp
points at 7/1
round two at 13/2


I'm struggling to see past Khaos williams at evens later

I don't rate perreira and he hasn't beaten anyone yet, I think Khaos will win if it goes to points which I think is overpriced by outworking perreira but could win by ko also if perreira gets up to his usual antics.
It might be hard to get mp out of there in one but he'll hopefully have him figured out by round two.





paddy enhancing the aldo neal double at 3/1 (next best 11/5) so thats a no brainer for me. (pettis aldo was the original plan)

I can't call the wb neal fight, think neal is a match for anyone but wb is so hard to pin down but as a big neal fan I have a feeling he'll get a late ko.
He hasnt fought in a year but at the same time nobody wanted to fight Neal and I've a feeling we'll see why later.

and the mad bet to cover a big chunk of xmas

double@171/1 neal round 4/williams round 2
treble with aldo pts at over 400
small single on neal round 4 at 22/1 bet365

SlowBlowin

Anyone else fancy Dan Hooker on the 23rd, Chandler debut ? I am basing this mostly on the sparing footage I have seen recently.

but1er

SlowBlowin wrote: »

Anyone else fancy Dan Hooker on the 23rd, Chandler debut ? I am basing this mostly on the sparing footage I have seen recently.

ill be backing hooker on points

mailburner

SlowBlowin wrote: »

Anyone else fancy Dan Hooker on the 23rd, Chandler debut ? I am basing this mostly on the sparing footage I have seen recently.

All over Hooker, last performance against dp will be good enough but he'll have probably improved since

10/3 is a decent price for pts (only pp have it priced) think it may be shorter when others have it priced

ASOT

I'm the opposite I think out of all the top guys at 155 Chandler has the best chance against hooker. Quicker hands and will hold him against the fence ala usman v masvidal.

Really looking forward to seeing how he gets on anyway.

SlowBlowin

ASOT wrote: »

I'm the opposite

Thank God for that - whenever everyone is in agreement it generally does not go well.

I was always impressed by the speed of Chandler, but depending on the odds I think Hooker is my bet. I watched both of them in interviews today, and also an interview with Poirier, there must be so much pressure on Chandler - I would love to hear Ben Askren's view.

akelly02

McGregor round 2 @ 9/2 appeals to me as a bit of value

but1er

anyone having Dustin?

weemcd

but1er wrote: »

anyone having Dustin?

Poirier by submission can be had at 14-1, to me that represents value, he has subs and McGregor has only lost by submission. If he was able to weather the first few rounds and up the pace before taking McGregor down it's a viable way to win for him. McGregor has slowed down drastically before, he's not been active lately and it's two years since he last made 155...

But I'm having trouble seeing past an early McGregor knockout myself.

SlowBlowin

but1er wrote: »

anyone having Dustin?

If you listen to Conner hes been saying he is in the best shape for this one, and didn't really prepare well for any of his recent fights.

I think this is very much a mind game fight and I want to see who turns up. I think there is a bigger variation in Dustin's game, from mentally weak to dominant. If Conner gets in his head I think Dustin will go down very quickly. If a mentally strong Dustin turns up, and he can avoid the left, then he will win.

I am waiting for the face offs to make up my mind.

mailburner

condit/ponz or holloway/ponz both around 6/5

My inital thoughts was holloway ponz


Any thoughts?

My head says Max but Kattar's striking is pretty legit although saying that Ige took a round off him, one judge gave Ige 2 rounds and the gap between Ige and Max is pretty big I'd imagine.
I think Max willl outwork him over 5 and do think pts is the most likely way Kattar wins this.

It's a very close fight though so maybe cond/ponz?



Brown is past it and condit isn't the fighter he was but condit has never been put away only by sub and I do think brown will stand with him.
I honestly don't think Brown is capable of going the distance anymore so I'll guess maybe a finish late round 2 or round 3 for condit.


Big layoff for ponz but he should be way too good here against a guy who has a punchers chance is all imo.

but1er

SlowBlowin wrote: »

If you listen to Conner hes been saying he is in the best shape for this one, and didn't really prepare well for any of his recent fights.

I think this is very much a mind game fight and I want to see who turns up. I think there is a bigger variation in Dustin's game, from mentally weak to dominant. If Conner gets in his head I think Dustin will go down very quickly. If a mentally strong Dustin turns up, and he can avoid the left, then he will win.

I am waiting for the face offs to make up my mind.

Didnt know they weight in Friday and fight Sunday Morning at 9.30 so two nights sleep. There going to be fighting at 170. Dustin could be alot bigger

Whelo79

but1er wrote: »

Didnt know they weight in Friday and fight Sunday Morning at 9.30 so two nights sleep. There going to be fighting at 170. Dustin could be alot bigger

Will Conor get two sleeps but Poirier only one? It depends on if they have adjusted to local time or not I guess. There's only a 4 hour difference between Dublin and Dubai but a 10 hour difference between Lafayette and Dubai. That could play a part maybe?

Or is there a bigger gap than normal between the weigh ins and fights?

Mellor

Whelo79 wrote: »

Or is there a bigger gap than normal between the weigh ins and fights?

I think the gap is the same as usual.
Instead of being Friday morning and Saturday night. It’s shifted to Friday night and Sunday morning.

Main card starts at 7am local time

simongurnick

Looks like Max is about 3/1 for a finish. Seems a juicy price. Not sure Kattar is at Max's level and think he might piece him up similar to the Ortega fight.
Thoughts?

mailburner

simongurnick wrote: »

Looks like Max is about 3/1 for a finish. Seems a juicy price. Not sure Kattar is at Max's level and think he might piece him up similar to the Ortega fight.
Thoughts?

Think it'll be points whoever wins

neither have ever been ko'd in 26/27 fights kat/hol

I think if anyone fancies Kattar then 9/2 pts is huge in comparison to 13/10 on Max

I fancy Max myself but wouldn't bet on him at pts odds but I don't think I can let 9/2 go, could see it being a 48/47 type fight

mailburner

https://www.paddypower.com/mixed-martial-arts




paddy going 2/1 kattar (20max tho I think it's 22.40 euro they allow)

simongurnick

mailburner wrote: »

Think it'll be points whoever wins

neither have ever been ko'd in 26/27 fights kat/hol

I think if anyone fancies Kattar then 9/2 pts is huge in comparison to 13/10 on Max

I fancy Max myself but wouldn't bet on him at pts odds but I don't think I can let 9/2 go, could see it being a 48/47 type fight

Fair point on the ko record, but I would question the quality of opponent. The finish includes submission too.

Also wonder what the two volk fights took out of max. They were tough bouts to say the least.

mailburner

simongurnick wrote: »

Also wonder what the two volk fights took out of max. They were tough bouts to say the least.

This is why I think Kattar has a decent shout! Every fight Max has had in the past few years has been a war, hard to believe he's only 29.
He was so good in the second volk fight though!
I'm not sure Kattar can beat a prime Max but I've a feeling he'll surprise us
all tonight.