Strong Winds/Severe Gusts January 14/15th 2015

Steopo wrote: »

another significant feature of last years storms were the high tides & huge sea swells which caused so much coastal damage on the south and southwest coasts - we're not at high tide tomorrow and forecast swells although significant are not on the scale as some of last years storms

Cough cough the west as well. Some of the damage still isn't fixed.

No ,Storm 10, they wont have egg on their face, they will issue a red warning for coastal counties in the morning around 0500 if they have to. they already have 5 separate warnings in force on the website which are spot on. The sea area forecast give storm force winds which is also more or less correct. although I would say the web forecast is better than the one david rogers gave on radio 1.

High tide in the stormiest period on the west coast is around midnight Thursday. clare island 0012,Roonagh 0013,Blacksod 0025. quite low tides of around 3 meters

RED L4 0TH wrote: »

What do people think of the HIRLAM output at the moment? Do the strongest winds brush off the NW coast with the bulk of this core staying out to sea?

http://www.ilmateenistus.ee/ilm/prognoosid/mudelprognoosid/euroopa/?lang=en#layers/temp2mv2,tuul10ms,tuul10mb,presmslp,presmslv

Yep, it shows maximum gusts of ~125 km/h brushing the extreme western coast. It doesn't look quite as strong as some of the other models. And Met Eireann make their forecasts based on what the HIRLAM/HARMONIE models show - not the GFS or Euro4.

Had a look at the 20 perturbations on the GEFS ensembles. About five or six would give wind gusts 15 km/hr higher than the current GFS p or the op. Number 20 appears about the strongest. So I just ran through them and did one basic estimate, max gusts at Mace Head. The range was 60 to 85 and the mean was 74.

This gives you an idea how much of a difference in impact could be experienced if this storm either maxes out or goes by without a struggle. Forecasts will of course tend to fall in the middle of the range. However, the current appearance on satellite imagery is typical of a very tightly wound up depression and it does not seem to be lifting in latitude all that fast in the past six hours (in which time it has probably deepened 10 mbs, it was 975 mb at 00z, projected to be 965 or close by 06z. The current position is about 53N 30W.

Maximum wind gusts on all reliable guidance appear to be around Galway Bay to Donegal Bay. The WRF gives me an analogue reading of 55 kts gusting 82 in this flow, 50 gusting 70 for Kerry and Cork.

I am seeing more reasons than not to "pull the trigger" on this forecast and mention gusts to 150 km/hr. Could always adjust the numbers around mid-day if they seem to be busting. As for level, I am comfortable with either 2 or 3, because whatever we choose, most of the country will be in 2 and a few parts in 3. So that's what we need to communicate.

06Z analysis chart puts it at 965mb, slightly more intense than the GFS for that time.




0Z GFS shows 7 hours of violent storm force 11 conditions on the exposed western coast.



Met Office Shipping forecast for Shannon, Rockall and Malin mentions force 11. Met Eireann still going with nothing stronger than force 10 on their sea area forceast this morning.

0Z Euro4 track has shifted south a little.



0Z HIRLAM appears to be slightly weaker, so I would not expect any forecast upgrades from Met Eireann unless that changes on the next run or if their higher res models show something different.

Beautiful crisp still morning in the north east thankfully no snow hard to believe whats in store for us

Breeze has picked up here, was up at 5 and there was none, sky clear, air crisp, just a class morning.

SeaBreezes wrote: »

If I rem right it was the south east. Thats why it caused so much damage down here (kinsale) we're used to the southwesterly winds. That direction caught a lot of us with damage.

West or north west if I recall correctly

Strongest winds for the Dublin area look like about around 10am Thursday morning. 110-120 km/h possible if this is right.

Graces7 wrote: »

Could some kind soul please remind me of the wind direction of last Feb's mega gale? Thank you.

heres the chart, winds generally change direction during storms (today's gales will be southerly to start and eventually veer wnw) but the strongest gusts were probably westerly.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2014/brack/bracka20140213.gif

Hmm. Heading Dublin Shannon tomorrow by road. Not enthused.

Larbre34 wrote: »

At least you're not flying it.

About the only consolation tbh. It's pure fireside weather.