Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : 2019 and Winter 2020

Meteorite58 · 27-06-2019 11:14pm

That would be serious rain if it falls as the ECM is predicting.

km79 · 27-06-2019 11:19pm

Meteorite58 wrote: »

That would be serious rain if it falls as the ECM is predicting.

And most of it over a couple of hours only

Meteorite58 · 27-06-2019 11:25pm

Lets see how accurate these are. On an normal pulse thunderstorm type days these prediction charts barely register a faint colour, normally grey. This would be very out of the ordinary if it happens as it is predicting.

Kermit.de.frog · 27-06-2019 11:27pm

I think an orange warning for Clare/Galway/Mayo looks warranted.

Rougies · 27-06-2019 11:30pm

ZX7R wrote: »

What's the big blob of the coast of Dublin to whales it has really moved but changes in intenseaty thunder storm or false return

Some level of disregard for legibility you have going on there, took me a while to decipher the question!

Yes they are false returns. Easy way to tell is have a look at https://en.sat24.com/en. If there are no clouds, there is no rain or thunderstorm.

km79 · 27-06-2019 11:31pm

Yr.no showing 48 mm of rain over a 4 hour period tomorrow afternoon for Galway city
This surely won’t happen??????

sryanbruen · 27-06-2019 11:34pm

km79 wrote: »

Yr.no showing 48 mm of rain over a 4 hour period tomorrow afternoon for Galway city
This surely won’t happen??????

Can happen. Kilkenny had 56.7mm in 2 hours during a thunderstorm in July 1983 for example following a hot spell.

km79 · 27-06-2019 11:38pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

Can happen. Kilkenny had 56.7mm in 2 hours during a thunderstorm in July 1983 for example following a hot spell.

Rougies · 27-06-2019 11:41pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

Can happen. Kilkenny had 56.7mm in 2 hours during a thunderstorm in July 1983 for example following a hot spell.

And this:

29th June 2005 saw 45mm fall in the Phoenix Park in less than an hour.

from https://www.met.ie/cms/assets/uploads/2017/08/HeavyRain241011.pdf

Kermit.de.frog · 27-06-2019 11:46pm

ECM modelling the thunderstorm potential in the east all day Saturday from sunrise. Most interesting of the 12z runs for storm potential for us on this side. :cool:

Parameters look quite intense for Galway tomorrow. Reckon there will be some headlines on the news come tomorrow evening.

Storm 10 · 28-06-2019 12:08am

Is it flooding your on about for Galway

km79 · 28-06-2019 12:10am

Storm 10 wrote: »

Is it flooding your on about for Galway

It’s what I’m worried about anyway given the forecasted (by yr.no) rain intensity over such a short period of time
That
And the lightning !

aisling86 · 28-06-2019 12:12am

Thunderstorm warning for cork Kerry Clare Galway updated on Facebook on Irish weather online (MT).

typhoony · 28-06-2019 12:13am

Met Eireann haven't reacted at all the potential tomorrow, you'd think they'd have some form of warning up for Clare and Galway.

Rougies · 28-06-2019 12:44am

typhoony wrote: »

Met Eireann haven't reacted at all the potential tomorrow, you'd think they'd have some form of warning up for Clare and Galway.

However, cloud will begin to build across parts of Munster and Connacht and there is the potential for a few thunderstorms to develop which may result in localised surface flooding.

squarecircles · 28-06-2019 5:04am

Ominous looking sky this morning, West Mayo.

jimmynokia · 28-06-2019 7:26am

aisling86 wrote:

I'd nearly drive to Clare to experience that tomorrow, been waiting all week for a good thunderstorm.

Considering it myself if its to be as bad as suggested.

Storm 10 · 28-06-2019 8:16am

Cloudy cool wind in Galway temp 17 degrees

km79 · 28-06-2019 8:21am

Met Eireann and uk met office forecast sequences still having none of this
In fact the UKMO has moved them further offshore
It’s rarely that badly wrong so I’m hopeful the worst will stay further west
Yr.no forecast still not updated and is out on its own
MTC doesn’t seem too concerned either

Storm 10 · 28-06-2019 8:24am

Nothing really showing up on radar now any rain is small off the West coast and that big mean looking cloud off the South Coast yesterday that had all the lightning is more or less gone.

Meteorite58 · 28-06-2019 9:04am

There is a line of cloud coming from the SE ,having moved in over County Cork and on a line for N kerry / Clare, starting to show height in it on Sat 24. Convection might increase as it passes over higher terrain resulting in Thunderstorms along its track perhaps in N Kerry / Clare as the ECM continues to predict this morning. Not much else showing up at this stage. Will see.

JCX BXC · 28-06-2019 9:07am

I see a shower pushing north over West Cork

Meteorite58 · 28-06-2019 9:09am

JCX BXC wrote: »

I see a shower pushing north over West Cork

Just see that now too, will be interesting to see if the intensity continues to grow.

Comhrá · 28-06-2019 9:15am

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Just see that now too, will be interesting to see if the intensity continues to grow.

Fizzling as we watch it.

km79 · 28-06-2019 9:17am

km79 wrote: »

Met Eireann and uk met office forecast sequences still having none of this
In fact the UKMO has moved them further offshore
It’s rarely that badly wrong so I’m hopeful the worst will stay further west
Yr.no forecast still not updated and is out on its own
MTC doesn’t seem too concerned either

Yr.no updated
All rain gone
Never seen such a change

JCX BXC · 28-06-2019 9:35am

YR have very poor accuracy in my experience. Maximum of 24°c I was to have apparently yesterday! 29.2°c is what I ended up with.

It also forecasted the entire snow storm of march 2018 as 'sleet' for here.

km79 · 28-06-2019 9:53am

JCX BXC wrote: »

YR have very poor accuracy in my experience. Maximum of 24°c I was to have apparently yesterday! 29.2°c is what I ended up with.

It also forecasted the entire snow storm of march 2018 as 'sleet' for here.

It did not perform well for me during the snow either
Generally though it’s a good guide
Never seen such a swing before

What model is it based on ? Some Norwegian one I think ?

Mortelaro · 28-06-2019 10:16am

Zone from east limerick up to Mayo through Galway seem to have the most rapidly rising cloud tops atm,look there I think for activity later

RobertKK · 28-06-2019 10:33am

km79 wrote: »

Yr.no showing 48 mm of rain over a 4 hour period tomorrow afternoon for Galway city
This surely won’t happen??????

sryanbruen wrote: »

Can happen. Kilkenny had 56.7mm in 2 hours during a thunderstorm in July 1983 for example following a hot spell.

https://www.met.ie/cms/assets/uploads/2017/08/July1985_Thunderstorm.pdf

Coon in Kilkenny had 21mm in 15 minutes during the 1985 thunderstorms and 29mm in the full 30 minute period.

squarecircles · 28-06-2019 10:33am

Sky to my south, west Mayo.

pad199207 · 28-06-2019 10:46am

Get the sunshine going in those areas where the thunderstorm risk is today over Clare/Galway and the risk is quite something according to the ECM

Parameters are definitely there today.

Hopefully this transfers over to the East during tomorrrow. Tonight likely to be very oppressive.

squarecircles · 28-06-2019 11:03am

Such a different feel to the atmosphere today compared to yesterday, oppressive, the air is stagnant, like a thick soup, the sun is out, but there are lumps of dark clouds circulating overhead.

West Mayo.

Kermit.de.frog · 28-06-2019 11:04am

Development getting going off the west coast alright. Its a question of how far east that corridor extends. We should be seeing some proper inland convection at this stage.

Still good for tomorrow morning in the east.

Sferics off the coast of Co Clare now.

squarecircles · 28-06-2019 11:16am

...

pad199207 · 28-06-2019 11:17am

Strikes now off Clare

squarecircles · 28-06-2019 11:17am

Sudden gust of wind,

Storm 10 · 28-06-2019 11:23am

pad199207 wrote: »

Strikes now off Clare

Yes but they are moving North West away from the Coast

km79 · 28-06-2019 11:24am

Storm 10 wrote: »

Yes but they are moving North West away from the Coast

UKMO spot on as usual

squarecircles · 28-06-2019 11:24am

Classic thunderstorm looking sky now, navy blue, horizon faded out, clouds indistinguishable

Carol25 · 28-06-2019 11:25am

Clouds and skies between Oranmore and Athenry. Pic 1 to the East, pic 2 to the West. The birds and animals are eerily quiet. Strange feel to the day.

coillsaille · 28-06-2019 11:27am

Starting to hear the odd rumble to my west here in south Connemara. Cloudy and humid, bit of a breeze but nothing like yesterday's near gale.

Say my name · 28-06-2019 11:34am

Storm 10 wrote: »

Yes but they are moving North West away from the Coast

Cold front still moving eastwards though.
These thunderstorms are the edge of the cold front.
Be interesting to see what happens later.

Mortelaro · 28-06-2019 11:38am

Carol25 wrote: »

Clouds and skies between Oranmore and Athenry. Pic 1 to the East, pic 2 to the West. The birds and animals are eerily quiet. Strange feel to the day.

2nd one looks very thundery!

pad199207 · 28-06-2019 11:39am

Very active now off the west coast nearly 30 strikes per minute.

Pity they are not off the coast of Cornwall

pad199207 · 28-06-2019 11:42am

Oh momma

squarecircles · 28-06-2019 11:43am

Scary

pad199207 · 28-06-2019 11:44am

squarecircles wrote: »

Scary

Loaded Gun

pad199207 · 28-06-2019 11:48am

Oh she’s really going for it now off Galway Bay. If it was nighttime it would be a great show!

chris2007 · 28-06-2019 11:50am

Wondering if these thunderstorms will make it to the east coast dublin area

Kermit.de.frog · 28-06-2019 11:51am

chris2007 wrote: »

Wondering if these thunderstorms will make it to the east coast dublin area

Tomorrow morning is the best opportunity in the east.

Nothing today.

Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : 2019 and Winter 2020

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