Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Zubeneschamali · 15-11-2018 2:24pm

kowtow wrote: »

Sterling is a massively traded currency with huge flows and the effects of Brexit have already been largely discounted.

The effects of a sane, planned Brexit, yes.

If No Deal looks likely, expect Sterling to drop like a rock.

Amirani · 15-11-2018 2:25pm

Tinder Surprise wrote: »

If there is a G.E would any party have the cahoonas to go with 'Vote for us Vote for Remain' ..or is that even possible at this stage?

This is Lib Dem policy. But they won't win enough seats.

LuckyLloyd · 15-11-2018 2:26pm

one armed dwarf wrote: »

Is it not the case that markets have priced in the worst case scenario (no deal) and short term volatility is just on the spot reaction to the bad news?

I won't claim I'm informed on any of this but I've got all my savings in GBP from working in London the past few years and am always anxious to know when/if I should change it to Euro.

I highly doubt it. The pound had a five year high against the euro of 1.44 in the summer of 2015. It plummeted with the announcement of a Brexit referendum and fell off a cliff following Leave to a range of 1.10 to 1.15 (low of 1.08 in Aug 2017). The oscillation within that range dips with news of potential No Deal and rises whenever a deal looks more plausible. Upon confirmation of a No Deal expect it to plum new depths and oscillate within a range that is <€1

I would certainly recommend moving a portion of your money to other currencies at this point. Best of luck.

charlie14 · 15-11-2018 2:27pm

Amirani wrote: »

This is Lib Dem policy. But they won't win enough seats.

They might win enough on that platform to do a DUP on it.

Rjd2 · 15-11-2018 2:29pm

charlie14 wrote: »

They might win enough on that platform to do a DUP on it.

They are not in great shape either, very old and drab leader and are struggling for financing. Realistically Labour should campaign on it, but the top people in that party are at best soft remainers.

Harry Palmr · 15-11-2018 2:29pm

Tinder Surprise wrote: »

If there is a G.E would any party have the cahoonas to go with 'Vote for us Vote for Remain' ..or is that even possible at this stage?

If Labour wasn't led by a Euro sceptic they'd be well placed to take the lead and make an election the Brexit election, would it be a risk? No not really as being a half hearted Brexit party would not bring them any more votes as the next General Election is not going to be fought on anything else. People will want a choice on this matter.

awec · 15-11-2018 2:30pm

charlie14 wrote: »

They might win enough on that platform to do a DUP on it.

I doubt the dems will jump into bed with the tories again.

seamus · 15-11-2018 2:34pm

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The effects of a sane, planned Brexit, yes.

If No Deal looks likely, expect Sterling to drop like a rock.

It's worth noting that parity with the euro is relatively good on a global scale. While it would be an historic dip for the Pound, a legitimate "collapse", maintaining parity with the second largest currency on the planet would also be no mean feat.

If any other country shot itself so badly in the economic foot, it would be time to break out the wheelbarrow to collect your salary.

I don't really have a point here

it's just an observation.

LeinsterDub · 15-11-2018 2:37pm

Rjd2 wrote: »

They don't have the numbers to beat May. The remainers will back May against any brexiter so she should be fine. Javid would have been a wildcard though, a remainer but a soft one so could have peeled votes from both factions.

May should hold her ground as she has the numbers to beat Raab, Johnson etc.

Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't the Tory party leadership contest a run off?

You could very easily see a stronger candidate in the remainers eyes emerge. In that case you could have May removed in the first round and that candidate winning overall, however they could be so remain that those who want a soft brexit jump ship to the Brexit candidate.

Of course the vote of no confidence would need to be won first

ilovesmybrick · 15-11-2018 2:37pm

Apparently Gove turned down the offer to replace Raab. I wonder if this is a signal he's also about to jump ship. https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1063061390179614721

Kermit.de.frog · 15-11-2018 2:38pm

If they have the letters how soon could a confidence vote take place?

LeinsterDub · 15-11-2018 2:43pm

https://twitter.com/BarristerSecret/status/1063063732748722176

Quelle Surprise. The camps just keep splintering

Harry Palmr · 15-11-2018 2:43pm

Always so annoying only hearing one side of these door stop statements/Q&As

Harry Palmr · 15-11-2018 2:48pm

Moggy really should be honest about WTO rules with regard to financial services in particular

Infini · 15-11-2018 2:49pm

lawred2 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/NigelDoddsDUP/status/1063029797314613251

One could argue that NI is already a vassal state

It's Brexit that will cause the breakup of the UK. The hypocracy and irony is not lost on this.

Anthracite · 15-11-2018 2:56pm

Standard now reporting Gove has rejected Brexit Sec role. So I guess he is overboard too now, having seen what the other rats were up to.

Patser · 15-11-2018 2:58pm

Water John wrote: »

The ERG are a pathetic small bunch, know they can't remove TM but want to hold the sword over her. But then nobody wants the job.
They're divided as to what to do, when their moment comes.

Mogg especially, but also a lot of the ERG, want the hardest brexit available. To them a no deal exit is perfect, and to achieve that they simply have to block any deal going. If the clock runs out, and no deal is done, they win.

So chaos suits them. Leadership challenges that waste time suit them. General elections, better believe that suits them. Someone actually stepping up and doing the job, not good for them.

So for ERG sniping from the shadows is all they need to do.

Nody · 15-11-2018 2:59pm

Anthracite wrote: »

Standard now reporting Gove has rejected Brexit Sec role. So I guess he is overboard too now, having seen what the other rats were up to.

Not necessary; he may simply sit around and see what's going to happen. No need to resign just yet in case May can pull out a miracle and he can claim "loyalty" or he can wait further and then "resign with a heavy heart as May would not listen to him".

Leroy42 · 15-11-2018 2:59pm

Anthracite wrote: »

Standard now reporting Gove has rejected Brexit Sec role. So I guess he is overboard too now, having seen what the other rats were up to.

Or it could be that there really is little point taking that role, there really is nothing else to be done in therms of what is on offer.

Davis, Raab and May and been at this at various stages for two years, and this is the best they could get (Raab claims there is more but of course has no actual details).

Gove might be happy enough to go along with it, but I doubt very much he wants to be seen as the man delivering it.

Professor Moriarty · 15-11-2018 3:00pm

Leadsom staying. That's interesting. Might well mean that Gove will stay also.

joe40 · 15-11-2018 3:00pm

With the current government in place I can't see if it matters whether May is PM or it is someone else.

The Tories have repeatedly said there will be no second vote, so the only option is this deal or no deal, If Labour/lib dems don't support it.
It is hard to imagine any further changes been made from the EU side after all this time to sweeten the deal for the Tory brexiteers.

Therefore the only possibility of a new vote is a labour led government, which means a GE.

The only people who can collapse the government is the Tories so why would they do that

Royale with Cheese · 15-11-2018 3:00pm

Rees Mogg - "I am not offering my name as leader. This is nothing to do with me."

Absolutely astounded by that second sentence.

prawnsambo · 15-11-2018 3:02pm

Brexit has been a car crash in super duper slow motion for the last two and a half years. At last we're now at the point of imnpact. Also in super duper slow motion.

circadian · 15-11-2018 3:05pm

Let's quote Edward Carson, because, it seems less than 100 years later the Conservatives have used Unionists in the same way they have been using them since the formation of Northern Ireland.

"What a fool I was. I was only a puppet, and so was Ulster, and so was Ireland, in the political game that was to get the Conservative Party into power. And of all the men in my experience that I think are the most loathsome it is those who will sell their friends for the purpose of conciliating their enemies, and, perhaps, still worse, the men who climb up a ladder into power of which even I may have been part of a humble rung, and then, when they have got into power, kick the ladder away without any concern for the pain, or injury, or mischief, or damage that they do to those who have helped them to gain power."

They say history repeats itself. Using Northern Unionists isn't repeating itself, it never stopped. I hope that some of the electorate in the North begin to awaken to this, much like the wave of Leave voters who have come to the realisation that they have been duped, Unionists have been pawns and nothing more, this entire time.

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo · 15-11-2018 3:06pm

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Think it's now a case of No Deal vs a People's Vote.

Think there is now two clear options that can be put on a ballot for a second referendum. People voted to leave without knowing what it looked like two and a half years ago. Now there is a clear withdrawal agreement. The EU and UK negotiating teams have each went to the limit of their flexibility.

This would be a referendum on what type of Brexit the people want. Yes the Brexiters will never be happy with this, but both options are Brexit, one hard and one soft.

So take the deal, or hard Brexit are the options.

demfad · 15-11-2018 3:06pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Leadsom staying. That's interesting. Might well mean that Gove will stay also.

Gove was the only Leave supporting Minister to back May in cabinet last night according to Robert Preston. Then again Murdoch owned entities are acting weird the last week.

Liam Fox is not gone. His appointment always meant that a hard Brexit would be attempted (connections to US Conservative Think Tanks for the US FTA).
Useful man to have if the UK crashed out. Worrying.

Meanwhile on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/DamianOS3/status/1063018731016781824

demfad · 15-11-2018 3:10pm

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo wrote: »

Think there is now two clear options that can be put on a ballot for a second referendum. People voted to leave without knowing what it looked like two and a half years ago.Now there is a clear withdrawal agreement. The EU and UK negotiating teams have each went to the limit of their flexibility.

This would be a referendum on what type of Brexit the people want. Yes the Brexiters will never be happy with this, but both options are Brexit, one hard and one soft.

So take the deal, or hard Brexit are the options.

No deal is not a viable option and it would be grossly negligent to put that on a ballot and thus give it a chance to be realised.

The viable options are Deal or Remain.

Seth Brundle · 15-11-2018 3:10pm

According to the Irish Times:

14:05
Analysts from US bank Citi have said the UK is now more likely to either stay in the European Union or leave without a deal rather than accept the terms presented by Theresa May.

"In terms of outcomes, we see either 'Never Brexit' or a no deal Brexit - the two best and worst outcomes for the UK economy and markets - respectively, as considerably more likely than a successful vote on the current deal," Citi analysts Tina Fordham and Christian Schulz wrote.

https://liveblog.irishtimes.com/bc3b7b9da1/Brexit-deal%3A-the-fallout/

Faugheen · 15-11-2018 3:12pm

Royale with Cheese wrote: »

Rees Mogg - "I am not offering my name as leader. This is nothing to do with me."

Absolutely astounded by that second sentence.

Of course he's not offering his name. Nobody wants to be the PM that oversees Brexit

seamus · 15-11-2018 3:13pm

joe40 wrote: »

The only people who can collapse the government is the Tories so why would they do that

Or the DUP.

DUP bail, Labour call a no confidence vote, game over.

Now, it would make the most sense at this point for the DUP to hold on for dear life regardless of who is PM. But "sense" and the DUP have never been found in the same place at the same time.

Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

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