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Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

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    #4622
    Captain Obvious
    Registered Users Posts: 4,165 ✭✭✭Captain Obvious


    Leavers calling into LBC Radio apologising for their vote. One burst into tears.

    https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/leave-voter-cries-apologises-for-brexit/


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    #4623
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,142 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Gove would only take if he thought he could get Deal through HoC. I don't think it will. If he did he would be in prime place to replace May. That would be his calculation.


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    #4624
    seamus
    Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    kowtow wrote: »
    It's worth bearing in mind for perspective, that even with the big fall in sterling in the last 24 hours it is at a higher level against the Euro than it has been for most of the last four months, and it remains within a couple of pips of where it was this time last year and into December.

    I can assure you that Sterling / EUR for the last year has been remarkable more for it's lack of volatility than for anything else - albeit in the wake of the big adjustment which took place following the referendum itself.
    I do agree completely, but I feel the stability and improvement over the last few months has been based on sentiment, on the perception that a deal is coming, that there will be a breakthrough and that nobody is going to let a no-deal Brexit come to pass.

    I wish I had the optimism (or perhaps insight) that some others seem to have that this is not it - Deal or No Deal. I see everyone taking firm stances against the deal everywhere, and all I can see is that if this deal is not approved, then a General Election is inevitable. Once that happens, there's no way we're getting anything in March but a disaster.


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    #4625
    kowtow
    Registered Users Posts: 6,135 ✭✭✭kowtow


    Water John wrote: »
    Gove would only take if he thought he could get Deal through HoC. I don't think it will. If he did he would be in prime place to replace May. That would be his calculation.

    I think you are right. He'll also be watching to see whether a leadership election is being triggered. Various reports of either or both of the ERG and the 1922 meeting at lunchtime today.

    By the by, May has just given (agreed with) a pretty clear explanation of the UK position on the best endeavors clause - essentially that it will bind the EU to consider electronic / technical solutions etc. to the border in good faith in order to avoid the backstop.


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    #4626
    Mr.Nice Guy
    Registered Users Posts: 45,535 ✭✭✭✭Mr.Nice Guy


    Called it ten days ago.
    Mr.Nice Guy wrote:
    To paraphrase Edward Carson, we do not want sentence of death with a stay of execution for three months.

    I suspect Raab is plotting his own exit strategy. Like his predecessor David Davis he is a true believer Brexiteer with lofty ambitions and he can't preside over a deal that will be roundly slated by his friends and supporters.

    I suspect he knows his 3 month backstop can't be carried and he's using it as a pretext to resign. He's following the path of Johnson and Davis and wants his part in the betrayal myth fiction that is about to be unleashed upon the UK.

    Hard to see how May can get this deal through now. She'll be labelled May the Magician if she manages it.

    I don't see a General Election happening as under the Fixed Term Act it would require the Tories to vote for it, which they are extremely unlikely to do if they sense the country will look to punish them.

    Think it's now a case of No Deal vs a People's Vote.

    'It is better to walk alone in the right direction than follow the herd walking in the wrong direction.'



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    #4627
    Amirani
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 12,521 Mod ✭✭✭✭Amirani


    Captain Obvious wrote: »
    Leavers calling into LBC Radio apologising for their vote. One burst into tears.

    https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/leave-voter-cries-apologises-for-brexit/

    That's absolutely incredible to listen to.


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    #4628
    Seth Brundle
    Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 38,958 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    "we have your wife and won't release her until you meet our demands"

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1063037914412736512


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    #4629
    Fr Tod Umptious
    Registered Users Posts: 15,034 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious


    joe40 wrote: »
    Really hope you are right.
    It would seem inconceivable that labour or Lib dems would reject this if the only other option was no deal.

    But you must remember that Labour is led by a staunch anti European.

    He is a wolf in sheep's clothing.

    Brexit is his dream.

    If Labour had any intention of staying in Europe and fixing things he has to go.


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    #4630
    kowtow
    Registered Users Posts: 6,135 ✭✭✭kowtow


    Another resignation.

    It's a great way of finding out who is in the cabinet.


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    #4631
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 37,369 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Captain Obvious wrote: »
    Leavers calling into LBC Radio apologising for their vote. One burst into tears.

    https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/leave-voter-cries-apologises-for-brexit/

    That was brutal to listen to.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



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    #4632
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,142 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Corbyn mainly is interested in Govn't owning or reowning and investing in public utilities and industry. He would agree to CU and SM if he could have this.
    Not a Brexiteer in full metal jacket sense.


    Sorry couldn't resist. You know the old jibe about the hostage taker making demands because they have his wife. The stock reply is 'you can keep her'.


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    #4633
    Mr.Nice Guy
    Registered Users Posts: 45,535 ✭✭✭✭Mr.Nice Guy


    If May faces a leadership challenge, and decides to fight it, then it comes down to what is she going to fight for...? This agreement, which looks extremely unlikely to get through the HoC? Will she throw down the gauntlet to Brexiteers and tells them she'll pledge a second referendum if her deal is not supported? Will she tell her party she will ask for an extension of Article 50 from the EU in order to press for better terms (which she's unlikely to get but it may pacify some of the Brexiteers if she suggests it)?

    What a complete mess this is.

    'It is better to walk alone in the right direction than follow the herd walking in the wrong direction.'



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    #4634
    megatron989
    Registered Users Posts: 206 ✭✭megatron989


    I know the pound is taking a hit today but it has shown remarkable stability thus far. Each time I'd have expected it to drop like a stone it remains strong, loosing a point or two maybe but no drama.
    Can anyone shine some light on this at all? Is it a sign that all this noise isn't expected to end up at no deal by the financial powers that be? Or is it being caused by wait and see mentality with people waiting to the last possible moment before moving investments or business elsewhere (euro)


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    #4635
    Tabnabs
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 15,695 Mod ✭✭✭✭Tabnabs


    The list, so far...

    Cabinet

    Dominic Raab, Brexit secretary

    Esther McVey, work and pensions secretary

    Junior ministers

    Suella Braverman, Brexit minister

    Shailesh Vara, Northern Ireland minister

    PPSs

    Ranil Jayawardena, MoJ PPS

    Anne-Marie Trevelyan, Education PPS


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    #4636
    LeinsterDub
    Registered Users Posts: 8,229 ✭✭✭LeinsterDub


    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1063053353280770048

    Letters flying into the 1922 committee now.


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    #4637
    LuckyLloyd
    Registered Users Posts: 36,156 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    megatron989 wrote: »
    I know the pound is taking a hit today but it has shown remarkable stability thus far. Each time I'd have expected it to drop like a stone it remains strong, loosing a point or two maybe but no drama.
    Can anyone shine some light on this at all? Is it a sign that all this noise isn't expected to end up at no deal by the financial powers that be? Or is it being caused by wait and see mentality with people waiting to the last possible moment before moving investments or business elsewhere (euro)

    It's the former. Businesses and investments have already been put on hiatus or moved out of the UK. The buoyant nature of the pound is related to investors feeling it's undervalued - i.e. there will be a deal, nothing will substantially change, etc. And every time it slips below a certain level bulls come back in to shore it up.


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    #4638
    Captain Obvious
    Registered Users Posts: 4,165 ✭✭✭Captain Obvious


    So are we now looking at another GE?


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    #4639
    MrMusician18
    Registered Users Posts: 7,238 ✭✭✭MrMusician18


    LeinsterDub wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1063053353280770048

    Letters flying into the 1922 committee now.

    We've heard that before


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    #4640
    MrMusician18
    Registered Users Posts: 7,238 ✭✭✭MrMusician18


    LuckyLloyd wrote: »
    It's the former. Businesses and investments have already been put on hiatus or moved out of the UK. The buoyant nature of the pound is related to investors feeling it's undervalued - i.e. there will be a deal, nothing will substantially change, etc. And every time it slips below a certain level bulls come back in to shore it up.

    Could the BoE be supporting the currency as well?


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    #4641
    Akrasia
    Registered Users Posts: 22,242 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    joe40 wrote: »
    The British people were definitely sold a pup in the first referendum. However in the last election they still returned a government of May's Tory party with her red lines, and no deal is better than a bad deal ****e. Along with 10 DUP MPs from the north who campaigned for a leave.

    This mess is hurting me personally, but the Brits had 2 opportunities to stop this or at least minimise the damage.

    I know a large minority are sensible and see this for what it is, but a majority of clowns in Britain and NI got us to this stage.

    In the last GE, the tories lost a decent majority and ended up with a minority government supported by the loons in NI who most people in the UK never gave a 2nd thought to before last year. in that GE, the two main parties both campaigned on a Brexit platform so even if there were people who wanted to vote for a remain candidate, they may not have had that choice in their constituency (especially given the FPTP system where a third party may have had no chance of getting elected)


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    #4642
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,142 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Raab says he has confidence in PM but wants a change of direction on Brexit.

    That won't be music to JRM.


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    #4643
    ARNOLD J RIMMER
    Closed Accounts Posts: 215 ✭✭ARNOLD J RIMMER


    Don't dump GIF's here please.


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    #4644
    kowtow
    Registered Users Posts: 6,135 ✭✭✭kowtow


    MrMusician18 wrote: »
    Could the BoE be supporting the currency as well?

    No, not in any obvious sense.

    I spent a the majority of my career in those markets and the rare occasions when when central banks are taking positions are perfectly obvious.

    This is not such a situation.

    Sterling is a massively traded currency with huge flows and the effects of Brexit have already been largely discounted. That is not to say it won't fall further but there are as many reasons to be long as to be short at this point.


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    #4645
    one armed dwarf
    Registered Users Posts: 858 ✭✭✭one armed dwarf


    Is it not the case that markets have priced in the worst case scenario (no deal) and short term volatility is just on the spot reaction to the bad news?

    I won't claim I'm informed on any of this but I've got all my savings in GBP from working in London the past few years and am always anxious to know when/if I should change it to Euro.


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    #4646
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,142 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    The ERG are a pathetic small bunch, know they can't remove TM but want to hold the sword over her. But then nobody wants the job.
    They're divided as to what to do, when their moment comes.


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    #4647
    Tinder Surprise
    Registered Users Posts: 1,462 ✭✭✭Tinder Surprise


    If there is a G.E would any party have the cahoonas to go with 'Vote for us Vote for Remain' ..or is that even possible at this stage?


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    #4648
    kuro68k
    Registered Users Posts: 261 ✭✭kuro68k


    Water John wrote: »
    The ERG are a pathetic small bunch, know they can't remove TM but want to hold the sword over her. But then nobody wants the job.
    They're divided as to what to do, when their moment comes.

    They must have been planning this for years. I wouldn't write them off so quickly, I'm use they can find a useful idiot to fill the role and deliver for them.


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    #4649
    Nody
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,266 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    Water John wrote: »
    The ERG are a pathetic small bunch, know they can't remove TM but want to hold the sword over her. But then nobody wants the job.
    They're divided as to what to do, when their moment comes.
    They might be able to squeeze by to get a challenge going but have no chance of winning the ensuing battle for leadership. That's why it's been sable rattling for ages and why May should have grown a pair and simply told them no and ignored them.


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    #4650
    Rjd2
    Registered Users Posts: 12,014 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    Nody wrote: »
    They might be able to squeeze by to get a challenge going but have no chance of winning the ensuing battle for leadership. That's why it's been sable rattling for ages and why May should have grown a pair and simply told them no and ignored them.

    They don't have the numbers to beat May. The remainers will back May against any brexiter so she should be fine. Javid would have been a wildcard though, a remainer but a soft one so could have peeled votes from both factions.

    May should hold her ground as she has the numbers to beat Raab, Johnson etc.


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    #4651
    CucaFace
    Registered Users Posts: 965 ✭✭✭CucaFace


    So is there zero chance of Sein Fein rocking up on the day of the vote for the first and only time in their history to vote in favour of this deal?

    It would be just TV/comedy gold if this were to happen and it meant this deal was passed as a result.

    If the vote came down to this, surely Sein Fein would see that the positive outcome of this (plus by sticking the dagger into the DUP) would far outweigh any negative response from its own party people/voters?


This discussion has been closed.
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