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Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

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    #4592
    UsBus
    Registered Users Posts: 1,390 ✭✭✭UsBus


    LuckyLloyd wrote: »
    Any link lads?

    Am listening to LBC on internet radio (at work)


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    #4593
    flatty
    Registered Users Posts: 1,089 ✭✭✭flatty


    correct horse battery staple wrote: »
    Funny that, the Great British negotiators have been completely outclassed and outmaneuvered by these pesky Irish + EU negotiators

    And they want the same people to make trade deals with China and Trump, lambs to the slaughter.
    That they haven't. They were utterly hamstrung by a solo run by may and her self created red lines, on top of which, there was never really a negotiation to be had. These are the terms, you accept or don't. I don't understand the high praise for our govt. They just did what anyone would have in the circumstance, buoyed by open European support. Just an average job.
    The fact that the EU moved a bit was entirely down to the good nature and genuine decency of barnier and tusk Imo. The UK govt have been an utter shambles. The referendum and campaign have been a shoddy corrupt disgrace. May has had a clear get out of jail card throughout as the leave side are placed under investigation, potentially criminal. She has chosen not to use this. Why she refuses to rerun the referendum is the single most curious fact at present. But I digress. The UK negotiating team have actually done a more than decent job, fighting against a vastly superior arsenal, with a hand tied.


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    #4594
    ArmaniJeanss
    Registered Users Posts: 13,306 ✭✭✭✭ArmaniJeanss


    LuckyLloyd wrote: »
    Bear in mind that we've been here before over Chequers, where 'big beats' (Politicos :rolleyes:) like Johnson and Davis resigned. Resignations don't change anything in of themselves. They've still got to get their letters into 1922; one of them needs to stand; and they need to win. She doesn't strike me as the resigning under pressure type.

    Which of them has the balls to step forth and stand? Johnson and Davis didn't. Angry opinion pieces in the Telegraph do not a leadership challenge make. Make yourselves relevant or stop the remonstrating imo.

    I don't think an individual has to stand against the PM anymore - it's just a straight Yes/No confidence vote re her. If she loses then MPs put themselves forward to replace her.

    I did like the old system where a stalking horse would stand against the leader just to gauge support for the 'real' challenger lurking in background.


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    #4595
    kowtow
    Registered Users Posts: 6,135 ✭✭✭kowtow


    It appears that JRM will submit a letter to the 1922 committee.

    On the assumption that there are a number of similar ERG letters, it sounds as though a leadership challenge will take place although Lord knows what the outcome might be.


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    #4596
    Zubeneschamali
    Registered Users Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    I think the only path to passing this in the HoC is to convince the ERG that if they don't back this, they won't get any Brexit at all.

    A threat to go to the people with a new referendum with options Leave with this deal or Remain would do it, since Remain would win.


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    #4597
    ilovesmybrick
    Registered Users Posts: 1,123 ✭✭✭ilovesmybrick


    LuckyLloyd wrote: »
    Any link lads?

    Here you go, you'd feel sorry for poor buggers like that who are realising the utter sh*te they were sold. https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/leave-voter-cries-apologises-for-brexit/


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    #4598
    Donald Trump
    Registered Users Posts: 19,108 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    flatty wrote: »
    That they haven't. They were utterly hamstrung by a solo run by may and her self created red lines, on top of which, there was never really a negotiation to be had. These are the terms, you accept or don't. I don't understand the high praise for our govt. They just did what anyone would have in the circumstance, buoyed by open European support. Just an average job.
    The fact that the EU moved a bit was entirely down to the good nature and genuine decency of barnier and tusk Imo. The UK govt have been an utter shambles. The referendum and campaign have been a shoddy corrupt disgrace. May has had a clear get out of jail card throughout as the leave side are placed under investigation, potentially criminal. She has chosen not to use this. Why she refuses to rerun the referendum is the single most curious fact at present. But I digress. The UK negotiating team have actually done a more than decent job, fighting against a vastly superior arsenal, with a hand tied.




    Well I suppose that in fairness they did not capitulate and managed to do the diplomatic work early on to get the EU fully behind them. There was a lot of worry early on that Ireland would be pushed to one side and ignored once the shit came close to hitting the fan


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    #4599
    Chiorino
    Registered Users Posts: 621 ✭✭✭Chiorino


    Rees-Mogg asking Theresa May why he should not submit a letter of no confidence in her. Absolute mess.

    If it wasn't going to affect us so much, I'd be so happy to watch this all go down the toilet and see how all the diehards try to defend themselves.


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    #4600
    LuckyLloyd
    Registered Users Posts: 36,156 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    Thanks for all the links, much appreciated!


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    #4601
    Nody
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,266 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    Donald Trump wrote: »
    Well I suppose that in fairness they did not capitulate and managed to do the diplomatic work early on to get the EU fully behind them. There was a lot of worry early on that Ireland would be pushed to one side and ignored once the shit came close to hitting the fan
    Take a step back for one moment; why would EU (and Barnier who negotiated the peace deal in the first place) want to throw Ireland under the bus (which has been claimed over and over again as recently as yesterday on this thread)? What benefit would EU have if they said eff the NI border issue and we'll deal with it later? UK has been asking for unicorns and pixy dust since day 1; wanting to have single market access without paying for it etc. The Irish border may have been a big issue in the negotiations to resolve but honestly in the grand scheme of things remove the issue and what would EU have gained? Nothing because the NI border issue was not a sticking point to get a deal with the UK but for UK to realize what's actually on the table to choose between in terms of options rather than the "We eat cake and keep it" which was their view for most of the duration.


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    #4602
    Zubeneschamali
    Registered Users Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    flatty wrote: »
    The fact that the EU moved a bit was entirely down to the good nature and genuine decency of barnier and tusk Imo.

    The EU moved to allow the UK a concession which brought the UK closer to the EU!

    The UK was like a union going into pay talks, bluffing that they'll strike for two years and at the last minute they offer to take a pay cut to get a deal.

    And the employer is seen to have compromised by granting their request for a pay cut.

    Mad stuff.


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    #4603
    Seth Brundle
    Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 38,958 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    https://twitter.com/Aiannucci/status/1063007128645001216


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    #4604
    Sam Russell
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,402 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Zubeneschamali wrote: »
    I think the only path to passing this in the HoC is to convince the ERG that if they don't back this, they won't get any Brexit at all.

    A threat to go to the people with a new referendum with options Leave with this deal or Remain would do it, since Remain would win.

    I do not get the push for a second referendum - there is not enough time. Such a referendum would take months and months to organise and I have heard date of early May suggested. That is after 29th March 2019.

    The options I see are:

    1. Labour abstaining.

    2. An amendment to the 'meaningful vote' is made to cancel Brexit in its entirety, and beg the EU to forget the last two years.

    3. A cliff edge MadMax episode. How long would that last?

    4. A general Election, but that would require Labour to campaign for Remain/No Bexit, and take most of the time left.

    I favour one of the first two.


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    #4605
    Tinder Surprise
    Registered Users Posts: 1,462 ✭✭✭Tinder Surprise


    Seth Brundle wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/Aiannucci/status/1063007128645001216

    even the most hardened May hater must sympathise when you see that type of shít she is up against


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    #4606
    listermint
    Registered Users Posts: 33,687 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    Sam Russell wrote: »
    I do not get the push for a second referendum - there is not enough time. Such a referendum would take months and months to organise and I have heard date of early May suggested. That is after 29th March 2019.

    The options I see are:

    1. Labour abstaining.

    2. An amendment to the 'meaningful vote' is made to cancel Brexit in its entirety, and beg the EU to forget the last two years.

    3. A cliff edge MadMax episode. How long would that last?

    4. A general Election, but that would require Labour to campaign for Remain/No Bexit, and take most of the time left.

    I favour one of the first two.

    The EU have stated several times they will extend for a second referendum.

    This fact has been stated numerous times within this very thread


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    #4607
    seamus
    Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    Zubeneschamali wrote: »
    A threat to go to the people with a new referendum with options Leave with this deal or Remain would do it, since Remain would win.
    Such a referendum would likely be considered illegitimate since it doesn't include a "do nothing" option. It's kind of like, "We can remove your leg or shoot you in the chest, pick one".

    It looks like we're going ahead with no deal. The rhetoric in the UK rallying against this is too strong for Corbyn and the other detractors to change their mind and approve it later on.

    We are actually in "Deal or No Deal" territory now. It's this, or nothing. And right now it looks like "nothing" is winning.

    The Tories are going to be a mess. The defeat of this deal in Parliament will allow May to vacant the PM seat before March (possibly before Xmas). And nobody wants that seat.

    Sterling has taken a hammering this morning and it's only going to get worse.

    For the UK, the only possible hope is that the MPs will defy their own leaders and take a free vote to approve the deal. Which is very unlikely.


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    #4608
    Donald Trump
    Registered Users Posts: 19,108 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    Nody wrote: »
    Take a step back for one moment; why would EU (and Barnier who negotiated the peace deal in the first place) want to throw Ireland under the bus (which has been claimed over and over again as recently as yesterday on this thread)? What benefit would EU have if they said eff the NI border issue and we'll deal with it later? UK has been asking for unicorns and pixy dust since day 1; wanting to have single market access without paying for it etc. The Irish border may have been a big issue in the negotiations to resolve but honestly in the grand scheme of things remove the issue and what would EU have gained? Nothing because the NI border issue was not a sticking point to get a deal with the UK but for UK to realize what's actually on the table to choose between in terms of options rather than the "We eat cake and keep it" which was their view for most of the duration.




    UK never stated free(as in unpaid for) access to single market as being a show-stopper.
    It was other conditions that came along with it that they did not like.


    The NI border is a situation they cannot untangle themselves from without some kind of customs union for NI at least.



    Ireland says "no border solution = no-deal". EU could just as easily said "ah, yeah. That's terrible. but lets sort that out after everything else is done and agreed".


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    #4609
    lawred2
    Registered Users Posts: 24,291 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    https://twitter.com/NigelDoddsDUP/status/1063029797314613251

    One could argue that NI is already a vassal state


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    #4610
    joe40
    Registered Users Posts: 3,811 ✭✭✭joe40


    ilovesmybrick wrote: »
    Here you go, you'd feel sorry for poor buggers like that who are realising the utter sh*te they were sold. https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/leave-voter-cries-apologises-for-brexit/

    The British people were definitely sold a pup in the first referendum. However in the last election they still returned a government of May's Tory party with her red lines, and no deal is better than a bad deal ****e. Along with 10 DUP MPs from the north who campaigned for a leave.

    This mess is hurting me personally, but the Brits had 2 opportunities to stop this or at least minimise the damage.

    I know a large minority are sensible and see this for what it is, but a majority of clowns in Britain and NI got us to this stage.


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    #4611
    kowtow
    Registered Users Posts: 6,135 ✭✭✭kowtow


    seamus wrote: »

    Sterling has taken a hammering this morning and it's only going to get worse.

    It's worth bearing in mind for perspective, that even with the big fall in sterling in the last 24 hours it is at a higher level against the Euro than it has been for most of the last four months, and it remains within a couple of pips of where it was this time last year and into December.

    I can assure you that Sterling / EUR for the last year has been remarkable more for it's lack of volatility than for anything else - albeit in the wake of the big adjustment which took place following the referendum itself.


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    #4612
    listermint
    Registered Users Posts: 33,687 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    joe40 wrote: »
    The British people were definitely sold a pup in the first referendum. However in the last election they still returned a government of May's Tory party with her red lines, and no deal is better than a bad deal ****e. Along with 10 DUP MPs from the north who campaigned for a leave.

    This mess is hurting me personally, but the Brits had 2 opportunities to stop this or at least minimise the damage.

    I know a large minority are sensible and see this for what it is, but a majority of clowns in Britain and NI got us to this stage.

    They didn't deliver may in last vote. She scraped it with small party support. The fptp system made this

    She has no mandate for such a deal. None.

    It's all bluster made up via internal Tory wrangling.

    This is not the will have any of the people


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    #4613
    Zubeneschamali
    Registered Users Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    seamus wrote: »
    Such a referendum would likely be considered illegitimate since it doesn't include a "do nothing" option.

    Remain is literally a "do nothing" option - stay exactly as they are.


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    #4614
    listermint
    Registered Users Posts: 33,687 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    kowtow wrote: »
    It's worth bearing in mind for perspective, that even with the big fall in sterling in the last 24 hours it is at a higher level against the Euro than it has been for most of the last four months, and it remains within a couple of pips of where it was this time last year and into December.

    I can assure you that Sterling / EUR for the last year has been remarkable more for it's lack of volatility than for anything else - albeit in the wake of the big adjustment which took place following the referendum itself.

    I think it's being controlled by London tbh. I don't think it reflects the position of the market.

    There is some currency gaming going on here.


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    #4615
    SimonTemplar
    Registered Users Posts: 2,815 ✭✭✭SimonTemplar


    There will always be Brexit supporters but I get the impression, now more than ever, that a majority of British voters are being dragged kicking and screaming out of the EU.


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    #4616
    Zubeneschamali
    Registered Users Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    seamus wrote: »
    We are actually in "Deal or No Deal" territory now. It's this, or nothing. And right now it looks like "nothing" is winning.

    Not for a second - if Labour thought voting against this meant No Deal in March, they would vote for it.

    They are going to vote against it because they know more about how Parliament works than that.


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    #4617
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,142 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    We are not down to this Deal or No Deal. As I said last night we are in the early stages of the end game. A whole lot will happen even today. Will Gove jump? He'll only do that if he sees it as advantagous to himself, feck the country. If he does the pound plummets.
    This Deal are quite long odds to get through the Ho C at this stage. Do the EU call a Summit knowing the Deal will probably not make it through the HoC?


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    #4618
    joe40
    Registered Users Posts: 3,811 ✭✭✭joe40


    Zubeneschamali wrote: »
    Not for a second - if Labour thought voting against this meant No Deal in March, they would vote for it.

    They are going to vote against it because they know more about how Parliament works than that.

    Really hope you are right.
    It would seem inconceivable that labour or Lib dems would reject this if the only other option was no deal.


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    #4619
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users Posts: 14,359 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    Water John wrote: »
    We are not down to this Deal or No Deal. As I said last night we are in the early stages of the end game. A whole lot will happen even today. Will Gove jump? He'll only do that if he sees it as advantagous to himself, feck the country. If he does the pound plummets.
    This Deal are quite long odds to get through the Ho C at this stage. Do the EU call a Summit knowing the Deal will probably not make it through the HoC?

    Pound has already taken a hammering this morning. As you say, if Gove goes it will sink even further.


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    #4620
    Zubeneschamali
    Registered Users Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    Water John wrote: »
    Do the EU call a Summit knowing the Deal will probably not make it through the HoC?

    Yes, that is an internal UK political matter, and not the EUs business.


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    #4621
    kowtow
    Registered Users Posts: 6,135 ✭✭✭kowtow


    Gove is / has been offered Brexit secretary job apparently.


This discussion has been closed.
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