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02-12-2018, 01:59   #46
Danno
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Originally Posted by sryanbruen View Post
These are previous years' minima for Ireland to have some perspective.

2018 (so far); -9.7c at Durrow on March 1st
2017; -6.6c at Casement Aerodrome on December 11th
2016; -7.3c at Markree Castle on November 25th
2015; -7.9c at Dublin Airport on February 3rd
2014; -7.5c at Thomastown on December 29th
2013; -7.6c at Markree Castle on March 12th
2012; -6.7c at Thomastown on February 2nd & Carrickmacross (Dunoge) on February 3rd
2011; -8.3c at Thomastown on January 29th
2010; -17.5c at Straide on December 25th
2009; -10.0c at Mullingar on December 25th
2008; -7.8c at Derrygreenagh on January 4th
2007; -8.0c at Cavan on February 7th
2006; -8.6c at Straide on March 3rd
Technically, that Durrow low is Feb 28th
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02-12-2018, 02:00   #47
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-9.9c in Thomastown in Early February (3rd)
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22-12-2018, 06:15   #48
M.T. Cranium
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Hey, I took the liberty of reposting the list of entries in chronological order to make it easier to follow our progress or lack thereof. ... same dates are shown in order of cold to not as cold. It's the same info but I placed it in column format. I browsed through the thread and found two more forecasts to add (Reckless Abandonment and InstaSte). Also I show Danno's late entry with an asterisk.

FORECASTER ____ MIN ___ LOCATION ____ DATE


Reversal ___________ -8.9 ___ Ballyhaise ____ 17 Dec

Rikand ____________-19.1 ___ Mt. Dillon ____ 25 Dec

JCX BXC ____________-7.6 ___ Oak Park ____ 27 Dec

Reckless Abandonment_-12.4___Markree _____ 28 Dec

BLIZZARD7 ________ -18.3 ___ Markree ______31 Dec and/or 11 Jan

Sryanbruen _________ -7.2 ___ Mullingar ______ 1 Jan

Tech85 ____________-10.3 ___ Gurteen _______ 4 Jan

Nacho Libre _________-13.2 ___ Oak Park ______ 5 Jan

Bazlers ____________ -13.5 ___ Mullingar ______ 6 Jan

M.T. Cranium _______ -12.8 ___ Ballyhaise ______7 Jan (or 3, 4 Feb)

Villian (Official site)___ -15.6 ___ Oak Park ______ 9 Jan (-17.7 at his site)
Cirrus Business ______ -11.6 ___ Oak Park ______ 9 Jan
Wine Goddess ________ -6.0 ___ Oak Park ______ 9 Jan

Pauldry ____________ -17.7 ___ Markree _______10 Jan
Beechwoodspark _____-14.7 ___ Oak Park ______ 10 Jan

Tazio ______________ -16.5 ___ Oak Park ______11 Jan
Artane2002 __________ -8.1 ___ Mount Dillon ___11 Jan

Up For Anything ______-15.0 ___ Kilkenny city __ 13 Jan
Esposito _____________ -8.3 ___ Oak Park _____ 13 Jan

Mount Vesuvius ______ -11.4 ___ Oak Park _____ 15 Jan
Larbre ______________ -9.4 ____Mullingar _____ 15 Jan

InstaSte ____________ -10.0 ___ Dunsany _____ 20 Jan

Ultimate Seduction _____-8.8 ___ Casement ____ 21 Jan

Meteorite58 __________ -7.6 ___ Ballyhaise ____ 25 Jan

Rebelbrowser _________ -8.4 ___ Moore Park ___ 29 Jan

Danno* ______________-9.9 ___ Thomastown ___ 3 Feb

Gaoth Laidir __________ -7.5 ___ Ballyhaise ____ 11 Feb

Konman _____________ -7.4 ___ Knock _______ 18 Feb

Conerstonelad ________-13.1 ___ Oak Park _____21 Feb

* submitted after contest closed (but we should check it anyway)

average of 29 fcsts ____-11.4 ___ Oak Park (10) __ 10 Jan (median)

Oak Park chosen by 10/29, Ballyhaise by 4, Markree by 3, Mullingar by 3, Mt. Dillon by 2,
and seven other sites had one pick each.

_________________________________________________________________

Given how March 2018 went, surprised that nobody punted for March.

Lowest so far has been -5.0 before the contest began and -2.8 since it was closed for entries.

Alternate dates should probably be ignored for the contest, I was one who offered them, but will stand or fall on 7 Jan

However, BLIZZARD7 says and/or which implies a possible tie (that can happen).


This is going to be either amazing or a trainwreck survived only by the late January or February people (most of whom went for something fairly typical).

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 22-12-2018 at 17:46.
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07-01-2019, 08:57   #49
bazlers
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Quote:
Originally Posted by M.T. Cranium View Post
Hey, I took the liberty of reposting the list of entries in chronological order to make it easier to follow our progress or lack thereof. ... same dates are shown in order of cold to not as cold. It's the same info but I placed it in column format. I browsed through the thread and found two more forecasts to add (Reckless Abandonment and InstaSte). Also I show Danno's late entry with an asterisk.

FORECASTER ____ MIN ___ LOCATION ____ DATE


Reversal ___________ -8.9 ___ Ballyhaise ____ 17 Dec

Rikand ____________-19.1 ___ Mt. Dillon ____ 25 Dec

JCX BXC ____________-7.6 ___ Oak Park ____ 27 Dec

Reckless Abandonment_-12.4___Markree _____ 28 Dec

BLIZZARD7 ________ -18.3 ___ Markree ______31 Dec and/or 11 Jan

Sryanbruen _________ -7.2 ___ Mullingar ______ 1 Jan

Tech85 ____________-10.3 ___ Gurteen _______ 4 Jan

Nacho Libre _________-13.2 ___ Oak Park ______ 5 Jan

Bazlers ____________ -13.5 ___ Mullingar ______ 6 Jan

M.T. Cranium _______ -12.8 ___ Ballyhaise ______7 Jan (or 3, 4 Feb)

Villian (Official site)___ -15.6 ___ Oak Park ______ 9 Jan (-17.7 at his site)
Cirrus Business ______ -11.6 ___ Oak Park ______ 9 Jan
Wine Goddess ________ -6.0 ___ Oak Park ______ 9 Jan

Pauldry ____________ -17.7 ___ Markree _______10 Jan
Beechwoodspark _____-14.7 ___ Oak Park ______ 10 Jan

Tazio ______________ -16.5 ___ Oak Park ______11 Jan
Artane2002 __________ -8.1 ___ Mount Dillon ___11 Jan

Up For Anything ______-15.0 ___ Kilkenny city __ 13 Jan
Esposito _____________ -8.3 ___ Oak Park _____ 13 Jan

Mount Vesuvius ______ -11.4 ___ Oak Park _____ 15 Jan
Larbre ______________ -9.4 ____Mullingar _____ 15 Jan

InstaSte ____________ -10.0 ___ Dunsany _____ 20 Jan

Ultimate Seduction _____-8.8 ___ Casement ____ 21 Jan

Meteorite58 __________ -7.6 ___ Ballyhaise ____ 25 Jan

Rebelbrowser _________ -8.4 ___ Moore Park ___ 29 Jan

Danno* ______________-9.9 ___ Thomastown ___ 3 Feb

Gaoth Laidir __________ -7.5 ___ Ballyhaise ____ 11 Feb

Konman _____________ -7.4 ___ Knock _______ 18 Feb

Conerstonelad ________-13.1 ___ Oak Park _____21 Feb

* submitted after contest closed (but we should check it anyway)

average of 29 fcsts ____-11.4 ___ Oak Park (10) __ 10 Jan (median)

Oak Park chosen by 10/29, Ballyhaise by 4, Markree by 3, Mullingar by 3, Mt. Dillon by 2,
and seven other sites had one pick each.

_________________________________________________________________

Given how March 2018 went, surprised that nobody punted for March.

Lowest so far has been -5.0 before the contest began and -2.8 since it was closed for entries.

Alternate dates should probably be ignored for the contest, I was one who offered them, but will stand or fall on 7 Jan

However, BLIZZARD7 says and/or which implies a possible tie (that can happen).


This is going to be either amazing or a trainwreck survived only by the late January or February people (most of whom went for something fairly typical).
Yes indeed MT. Certainly a train wreck for myself. Way off the mark. Bit like my school days : ).
Even a watery frost would be nice now after such a mild December!
Plenty still in with a shout. Who knows what could happen,still early days yet.
A 1947 style February would certainly leave us wide eyed!

Best of luck to all left in the competition.
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07-01-2019, 10:55   #50
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No chance of -17.7c on Thursday then.

Maybe if we all open our fridge freezers!
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01-02-2019, 23:59   #51
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bump we may have some action finally

-5.8 on 31st (Dublin) is finally colder than the early November reading.
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23-02-2019, 18:28   #52
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From what I see then, Wine Goddess with our highest forecast of -6.0 has the closest value to the current minimum for the winter, -5.8 which occurred on the 31st of January. The closest date forecast was 29th January (Rebelbrowser) closely followed by Danno with 3 Feb (who was technically too late but at that time range I'd give that a pass). Nobody guessed Dublin or even Casement as the location, perhaps the closest to the location was InstaSte who said Dunsany (although Oak Park, a common pick, is not much further is it?).

The highest ranked combinations of temperature and date would appear to be a toss-up between Gaoth Laidir (-7.5, 11 Feb) who was 4th mildest and 6th closest, in a virtual tie with Meteorite58 (-7.6, 25 Jan) who was tied 5th mildest and 4th closest to the date. If we get a lower temperature in March it's not likely to be much lower, so that would just have the effect of moving GL closer to the date than Meteorite. Wine Goddess holds on to a lead in the temperature portion until -6.7 should there be a March cold spell (and I can recall a winter contest where that happened with a reading of about -7 prevailing over earlier readings, so would not rule it out entirely despite the current warmth). If it does get that cold, from -6.7 to -7.3 sryanbruen (-7.2) would be closest or at -7.3 tied with Konman (-7.4).

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 23-02-2019 at 18:35.
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23-02-2019, 21:32   #53
bazlers
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Quote:
Originally Posted by M.T. Cranium View Post
From what I see then, Wine Goddess with our highest forecast of -6.0 has the closest value to the current minimum for the winter, -5.8 which occurred on the 31st of January. The closest date forecast was 29th January (Rebelbrowser) closely followed by Danno with 3 Feb (who was technically too late but at that time range I'd give that a pass). Nobody guessed Dublin or even Casement as the location, perhaps the closest to the location was InstaSte who said Dunsany (although Oak Park, a common pick, is not much further is it?).

The highest ranked combinations of temperature and date would appear to be a toss-up between Gaoth Laidir (-7.5, 11 Feb) who was 4th mildest and 6th closest, in a virtual tie with Meteorite58 (-7.6, 25 Jan) who was tied 5th mildest and 4th closest to the date. If we get a lower temperature in March it's not likely to be much lower, so that would just have the effect of moving GL closer to the date than Meteorite. Wine Goddess holds on to a lead in the temperature portion until -6.7 should there be a March cold spell (and I can recall a winter contest where that happened with a reading of about -7 prevailing over earlier readings, so would not rule it out entirely despite the current warmth). If it does get that cold, from -6.7 to -7.3 sryanbruen (-7.2) would be closest or at -7.3 tied with Konman (-7.4).
In fairness the competition was for December, January, February. I think these results should be the out come.

In fairness we can't predict if the winter as a whole will be mild or cold! Guessing the lowest temp, in a named place and date would be a fair achievement :-)
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25-02-2019, 00:08   #54
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We should never assume that this question will never be resolved, there's no telling what scientific advances may occur in the future, in fact I am rather surprised that our science lags so far behind all the others in that regard. Also I don't tend to see things quite as hopelessly since reasonably reliable long range forecasting is already a given in North America, we don't tend to take this approach to the state of the art, and I can't conceive of an atmospheric system in which one part could be accurately modelled and other parts could not.

People are a bit down in the dumps about this winter not turning out cold and snowy as almost everyone who made a forecast thought might be the case, and it's just a spur to determined researchers to do better in the future. I've never been a quitter, only death will end the search.

As to the contest being only the three winter months, that's your call. I don't remember reading that but maybe it was in the original post.
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25-02-2019, 00:11   #55
M.T. Cranium
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I mean, if you could go back to let's say 1850 and ask people, okay which of these three things will not happen by the year 2020:

(a) men will land on the Moon

(b) people will have devices in their homes that allow them to communicate with anyone anywhere, and do millions of arithmetic sums in less than one second

(c) there will be accurate long-term weather forecasts.

Likely some would say, "you're crazy on a and b, but we already have c, look at the berry bushes."

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25-02-2019, 07:36   #56
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Just read that I'm closest to the lowest temperature of the winter! You could knock me over with a feather, given the depth of knowledge others on this forum have! I'd be inclined to rule meself out on the basis of sheer guesswork LOL
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25-02-2019, 18:21   #57
bazlers
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Originally Posted by M.T. Cranium View Post
We should never assume that this question will never be resolved, there's no telling what scientific advances may occur in the future, in fact I am rather surprised that our science lags so far behind all the others in that regard. Also I don't tend to see things quite as hopelessly since reasonably reliable long range forecasting is already a given in North America, we don't tend to take this approach to the state of the art, and I can't conceive of an atmospheric system in which one part could be accurately modelled and other parts could not.

People are a bit down in the dumps about this winter not turning out cold and snowy as almost everyone who made a forecast thought might be the case, and it's just a spur to determined researchers to do better in the future. I've never been a quitter, only death will end the search.

As to the contest being only the three winter months, that's your call. I don't remember reading that but maybe it was in the original post.
Yep it's there in the first post. We can let it roll it was only for a bit of entertainment.
I blame the jackdaws for the mild winter. No reason but it was either ye or the Holly berries that's for sure ; )
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