Lowest minimum temperature recording for Winter 2018/19

bazlers

Ok guys just for a bit of fun. During this dull and damp month ahead.
Try and guess the lowest temperature recording for this winter (Dec,Jan and Feb) the place ( an official Met Eireann site) and date.
Closing date 30th of November.
1 pt for temp
2 pts for place
3 pts for date.

I'm going -13.5 _Mullingar_Jan 6th.

Enjoy🌨️

Tazio

Good idea... so here goes a fantasy guess.....

-16.5_OAK PARK CARLOW_JAN 11th.

sryanbruen

-7.2c at Mullingar on January 1st.

esposito

-8.3 c Oak Park 13th Jan

Rikand

-19.1 .... 25th December ...... Mt. Dillon


And 4 feet of snow

pauldry

-17.7c Jan 10th 2019 as its me birthday n Markree of Course

M.T. Cranium

I will put in a guess later, but just FYI, there has been a winter forecast contest for the past ten winters that includes this variable (lowest temperature, but not the date or location though). That will make an appearance at the usual time, late November. But this will be a fun thread to expand on that aspect. Watch for the winter forecast contest thread in about two weeks.

Artane2002

-8.1 Mount Dillon January 11th

I find it crazy that it got down to -8c in Dublin back in February 2015... I remember the heavy frost very clearly that day.

bazlers

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I will put in a guess later, but just FYI, there has been a winter forecast contest for the past ten winters that includes this variable (lowest temperature, but not the date or location though). That will make an appearance at the usual time, late November. But this will be a fun thread to expand on that aspect. Watch for the winter forecast contest thread in about two weeks.

Sorry didn't realise. This can be practice run before the main event. Always good to stretch out the legs and blow out the cobwebs first!
Some big juicey negatives coming in.
Might have to invest in huskies and sleigh,😀

nacho libre

January 5th -13.2 at Oak Park

JCX BXC

December 27th -7.6c Oak Park

Wine Goddess

Jan 4th -6 Oak Park
Having just re-read MT's winter forecast I'm changing this to
Jan 9th -6C Oak Park!

M.T. Cranium

Okay, I will take a wild guess at this,

-12.8 at Ballyhaise (and possibly -14 in NI) around 7 January, may be closely matched around 3-4 Feb.

This will depend on a decent snowfall in late December or first few days of January, if ground is bare it's hard to go much below -8.

Gaoth Laidir

-7.5 at Ballyhaise, Feb 11th.

TECH85

4th january -10.3

up for anything

13th January in Kilkenny city -15C

CirrusBusiness

-11.6 at OAK PARK, 9th January.

bazlers

TECH85 wrote: »

4th january -10.3

Do you want to pick a place? You will be at the loss of 2 Pts might as well.

TECH85

bazlers wrote: »

Do you want to pick a place? You will be at the loss of 2 Pts might as well.

Ooops lol , gurteen

Danno

Just to note - On February 28th 2018 it briefly hit around -9.7c here in Durrow (official screen) during a brief part of the night when winds fell calm for around an hour. Johnstown in NW Kilkenny County (Davis Vue) hit -12.1c the same night. They were sheltered more by the hills between Durrow and Urlingford.

Link to Johnstown Data: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IKILKENN3#history/s20180301/e20180301/mdaily

Reversal

-8.9, Ballyhaise, December 17th

BLIZZARD7

-18.3c, 31st of December and/or the 11th of January. Markree Castle.

Villain

Official -15.6c Oak Park January 9th

Unofficial -17.8c at my station to beat my -17.7c from 2010

pauldry

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

-18.3c, 31st of December and/or the 11th of January. Markree Castle.

No Blizzard...it will only get to -17.7c in Markree on the 10th January dont be exagerrating :pac:

bazlers

So 10 days left to get your entries in and also to edit your entry if you wish.
With MTC possibly starting his winter thread soon, mods if you want to merge with that thread or as MT himself suggests have this more of a discussion thread. Anyhow I guess we will see how it goes and if it starts to cause confusion just scrap it.

Reckless Abandonment

Markree -12.4 Dec 28th . loads of snow from mid dec .. except the in Cork, they get rain

bazlers

Remember guys and gals closing date Friday at 00.00 (so not long after toy show!) There is also MTs winter and December Thread posted now too, I think that stays open until the 3rd with penalties after that date. Good luck!

Rebelbrowser

Moore Park; -8.4c; 29 January

q85dw7osi4lebg

Dunsany, -10.0, January 20th

Cornerstonelad

Oak Park, - 13.1, 21Feb.

Larbre34

-9.4C, Mullingar, 15th January.

Meteorite58

Jan 25th

Ballyhaise

- 7.6C

konman

February 18th
knock
-7.4

M.T. Cranium

bazlers wrote: »

So 10 days left to get your entries in and also to edit your entry if you wish.
With MTC possibly starting his winter thread soon, mods if you want to merge with that thread or as MT himself suggests have this more of a discussion thread. Anyhow I guess we will see how it goes and if it starts to cause confusion just scrap it.

This thread is fine, don't merge it with the contest thread, I put the winter forecast contest in with the December forecast contest because most of the people who have entered that in previous years were regular monthly forecasters (not all though) ... so if you're looking for that contest thread, look for the December forecast contest and enter there. You don't have to enter our December contest to submit a winter forecast.

Captain Red Beard

Really cold. The Midlands.

Mount Vesuvius

Nice one , just seeing this thread now.
Well nothing will happen anytime too soon but there looks to be a considerable wave attack on the Stratosphere, forecast for mid December.
So if that does indeed knock the hell out of it , I'll include a 3 week time lag for effects to take place, hopefully in the right place, then allow another week for snowfall and cold to deepen. So my guess is,

January 15th
Oak park
Minus 11.4

Fingers crossed.

Beechwoodspark

Jan 10th

-14.7

Oak Park

bazlers

Excellent. We will keep this thread separate.
I will post the entries in order on Saturday.

sryanbruen

These are previous years' minima for Ireland to have some perspective.

2018 (so far); -9.7c at Durrow on March 1st
2017; -6.6c at Casement Aerodrome on December 11th
2016; -7.3c at Markree Castle on November 25th
2015; -7.9c at Dublin Airport on February 3rd
2014; -7.5c at Thomastown on December 29th
2013; -7.6c at Markree Castle on March 12th
2012; -6.7c at Thomastown on February 2nd & Carrickmacross (Dunoge) on February 3rd
2011; -8.3c at Thomastown on January 29th
2010; -17.5c at Straide on December 25th
2009; -10.0c at Mullingar on December 25th
2008; -7.8c at Derrygreenagh on January 4th
2007; -8.0c at Cavan on February 7th
2006; -8.6c at Straide on March 3rd

bazlers

Ok this is the official list of entries for now. If there are more to come between now and tonight i will amend tomorrow. Think i have everyone but let me know if not..

Bazlers -13.5 _Mullingar_Jan 6th

Tazio -16.5_OAK PARK CARLOW_JAN 11th.

Sryanbruen -7.2c at Mullingar on January 1st

Esposito -8.3 c Oak Park 13th Jan

Rikand -19.1 .... 25th December ...... Mt. Dillon

Pauldry -17.7c Jan 10th Markree

Artane2002 -8.1 Mount Dillon January 11th

Nacho Libre January 5th -13.2 at Oak Park

JCX BXC December 27th -7.6c Oak Park

Wine Goddess Jan 9th -6C Oak Park

MT Cranium -12.8 at Ballyhaise January 7th (possibly 3rd 4th Feb)

Gaoth Laidir -7.5 at Ballyhaise, Feb 11th

Tech85 4th january -10.3 Gurteen

Up For Anything 13th January in Kilkenny city -15C

Cirrus Business -11.6 at OAK PARK, 9th January.

Reversal -8.9, Ballyhaise, December 17th

BLIZZARD7 -18.3c, 31st of December and/or the 11th of January. Markree Castle.

Villian Official -15.6c Oak Park January 9th (he has an unofficial one too)

Rebelbrowser Moore Park; -8.4c; 29 January

Conerstonelad Oak Park, - 13.1, 21Feb.

Larbre -9.4C, Mullingar, 15th January

Meteorite58 Jan 25th Ballyhaise- 7.6C

Konman February 18th knock -7.4

Mount Vesuvius January 15th Oak park -11.4

Beechwoodspark Jan 10th -14.7 Oak Park

M.T. Cranium

Just a question, when you say "official met E station" does that include climat stations that report away from the website daily and monthly reporting? For example, I see Kilkenny City among the list of stations chosen, that's not visible on the met E "yesterday's weather" or "monthly data" or "daily data" sites. In the contest thread, we ignore all these stations that report eventually somewhere else (the Bulletin I believe is where they come to light unless somebody here knows about their readings -- this happened with the Dec 2010 cold spell, the coldest reading anywhere was a few degrees lower than the value we used for the contest minimum). For example I think Danno's station at Durrow has been colder than any of the "main" stations in some previous winters.

It's not a big issue, just thought it would be better to clarify the rules before rather than after the fact.

sryanbruen

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Just a question, when you say "official met E station" does that include climat stations that report away from the website daily and monthly reporting? For example, I see Kilkenny City among the list of stations chosen, that's not visible on the met E "yesterday's weather" or "monthly data" or "daily data" sites. In the contest thread, we ignore all these stations that report eventually somewhere else (the Bulletin I believe is where they come to light unless somebody here knows about their readings -- this happened with the Dec 2010 cold spell, the coldest reading anywhere was a few degrees lower than the value we used for the contest minimum). For example I think Danno's station at Durrow has been colder than any of the "main" stations in some previous winters.

It's not a big issue, just thought it would be better to clarify the rules before rather than after the fact.

They do not do the monthly weather bulletins anymore and instead add the historical data for climate stations online a few months after in the historical database. I think most of the climate stations have their data available up to June at this point. I'm waiting on their data to come in for the full Summer period to do my final and full Summer 2018 report - I think Met Éireann is too.

bazlers

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Just a question, when you say "official met E station" does that include climat stations that report away from the website daily and monthly reporting? For example, I see Kilkenny City among the list of stations chosen, that's not visible on the met E "yesterday's weather" or "monthly data" or "daily data" sites. In the contest thread, we ignore all these stations that report eventually somewhere else (the Bulletin I believe is where they come to light unless somebody here knows about their readings -- this happened with the Dec 2010 cold spell, the coldest reading anywhere was a few degrees lower than the value we used for the contest minimum). For example I think Danno's station at Durrow has been colder than any of the "main" stations in some previous winters.

It's not a big issue, just thought it would be better to clarify the rules before rather than after the fact.

Yes I noticed that myself at the time but wasn't sure of age profile of entrant and wouldn't like to discount it and ruin a young persons interest in this science. Im probably been very soft here and mellowing with age maybe!
I'm going to allow it as dead line is up now so its the only that got through. He/she can count their lucky stars :-) in fairness this competition is only a poor a relation to the December /Winter forecast competition, although I guess if it comes down to the wire, arguments have started on lesser things. On my head be it now anyhow. :-/

Ultimate Seduction

I'm a few hours late, please let me in.

-8.8 at Casement on 21 January 2019

bazlers

This is the official entries for this Winter so competition closed. Ultimate Seduction is lucky to get in! I like MTCs idea of penalties after closing time. The way to go.
Anyhow best of luck to everyone and I bet the Kilkenny forecast will come in to play. Sods law.
Here's hoping for a cold and snowy one.

Bazlers -13.5 _Mullingar_Jan 6th

Tazio -16.5_OAK PARK CARLOW_JAN 11th.

Sryanbruen -7.2c at Mullingar on January 1st

Esposito -8.3 c Oak Park 13th Jan

Rikand -19.1 .... 25th December ...... Mt. Dillon

Pauldry -17.7c Jan 10th Markree

Artane2002 -8.1 Mount Dillon January 11th

Nacho Libre January 5th -13.2 at Oak Park

JCX BXC December 27th -7.6c Oak Park

Wine Goddess Jan 9th -6C Oak Park

MT Cranium -12.8 at Ballyhaise January 7th (possibly 3rd 4th Feb)

Gaoth Laidir -7.5 at Ballyhaise, Feb 11th

Tech85 4th january -10.3 Gurteen

Up For Anything 13th January in Kilkenny city -15C

Cirrus Business -11.6 at OAK PARK, 9th January.

Reversal -8.9, Ballyhaise, December 17th

BLIZZARD7 -18.3c, 31st of December and/or the 11th of January. Markree Castle.

Villian Official -15.6c Oak Park January 9th (he has an unofficial one too)

Rebelbrowser Moore Park; -8.4c; 29 January

Conerstonelad Oak Park, - 13.1, 21Feb.

Larbre -9.4C, Mullingar, 15th January

Meteorite58 Jan 25th Ballyhaise- 7.6C

Konman February 18th knock -7.4

Mount Vesuvius January 15th Oak park -11.4

Beechwoodspark Jan 10th -14.7 Oak Park

Ultimate Seduction -8.8 casement 21st January

Danno

sryanbruen wrote: »

These are previous years' minima for Ireland to have some perspective.

2018 (so far); -9.7c at Durrow on March 1st
2017; -6.6c at Casement Aerodrome on December 11th
2016; -7.3c at Markree Castle on November 25th
2015; -7.9c at Dublin Airport on February 3rd
2014; -7.5c at Thomastown on December 29th
2013; -7.6c at Markree Castle on March 12th
2012; -6.7c at Thomastown on February 2nd & Carrickmacross (Dunoge) on February 3rd
2011; -8.3c at Thomastown on January 29th
2010; -17.5c at Straide on December 25th
2009; -10.0c at Mullingar on December 25th
2008; -7.8c at Derrygreenagh on January 4th
2007; -8.0c at Cavan on February 7th
2006; -8.6c at Straide on March 3rd

Technically, that Durrow low is Feb 28th

Danno

-9.9c in Thomastown in Early February (3rd)

M.T. Cranium

Hey, I took the liberty of reposting the list of entries in chronological order to make it easier to follow our progress or lack thereof. ... same dates are shown in order of cold to not as cold. It's the same info but I placed it in column format. I browsed through the thread and found two more forecasts to add (Reckless Abandonment and InstaSte). Also I show Danno's late entry with an asterisk.

FORECASTER ____ MIN ___ LOCATION ____ DATE


Reversal ___________ -8.9 ___ Ballyhaise ____ 17 Dec

Rikand ____________-19.1 ___ Mt. Dillon ____ 25 Dec

JCX BXC ____________-7.6 ___ Oak Park ____ 27 Dec

Reckless Abandonment_-12.4___Markree _____ 28 Dec

BLIZZARD7 ________ -18.3 ___ Markree ______31 Dec and/or 11 Jan

Sryanbruen _________ -7.2 ___ Mullingar ______ 1 Jan

Tech85 ____________-10.3 ___ Gurteen _______ 4 Jan

Nacho Libre _________-13.2 ___ Oak Park ______ 5 Jan

Bazlers ____________ -13.5 ___ Mullingar ______ 6 Jan

M.T. Cranium _______ -12.8 ___ Ballyhaise ______7 Jan (or 3, 4 Feb)

Villian (Official site)___ -15.6 ___ Oak Park ______ 9 Jan (-17.7 at his site)
Cirrus Business ______ -11.6 ___ Oak Park ______ 9 Jan
Wine Goddess ________ -6.0 ___ Oak Park ______ 9 Jan

Pauldry ____________ -17.7 ___ Markree _______10 Jan
Beechwoodspark _____-14.7 ___ Oak Park ______ 10 Jan

Tazio ______________ -16.5 ___ Oak Park ______11 Jan
Artane2002 __________ -8.1 ___ Mount Dillon ___11 Jan

Up For Anything ______-15.0 ___ Kilkenny city __ 13 Jan
Esposito _____________ -8.3 ___ Oak Park _____ 13 Jan

Mount Vesuvius ______ -11.4 ___ Oak Park _____ 15 Jan
Larbre ______________ -9.4 ____Mullingar _____ 15 Jan

InstaSte ____________ -10.0 ___ Dunsany _____ 20 Jan

Ultimate Seduction _____-8.8 ___ Casement ____ 21 Jan

Meteorite58 __________ -7.6 ___ Ballyhaise ____ 25 Jan

Rebelbrowser _________ -8.4 ___ Moore Park ___ 29 Jan

Danno* ______________-9.9 ___ Thomastown ___ 3 Feb

Gaoth Laidir __________ -7.5 ___ Ballyhaise ____ 11 Feb

Konman _____________ -7.4 ___ Knock _______ 18 Feb

Conerstonelad ________-13.1 ___ Oak Park _____21 Feb

* submitted after contest closed (but we should check it anyway)

average of 29 fcsts ____-11.4 ___ Oak Park (10) __ 10 Jan (median)

Oak Park chosen by 10/29, Ballyhaise by 4, Markree by 3, Mullingar by 3, Mt. Dillon by 2,
and seven other sites had one pick each.

_________________________________________________________________

Given how March 2018 went, surprised that nobody punted for March.

Lowest so far has been -5.0 before the contest began and -2.8 since it was closed for entries.

Alternate dates should probably be ignored for the contest, I was one who offered them, but will stand or fall on 7 Jan

However, BLIZZARD7 says and/or which implies a possible tie (that can happen).


This is going to be either amazing or a trainwreck survived only by the late January or February people (most of whom went for something fairly typical).

bazlers

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Hey, I took the liberty of reposting the list of entries in chronological order to make it easier to follow our progress or lack thereof. ... same dates are shown in order of cold to not as cold. It's the same info but I placed it in column format. I browsed through the thread and found two more forecasts to add (Reckless Abandonment and InstaSte). Also I show Danno's late entry with an asterisk.

FORECASTER ____ MIN ___ LOCATION ____ DATE


Reversal ___________ -8.9 ___ Ballyhaise ____ 17 Dec

Rikand ____________-19.1 ___ Mt. Dillon ____ 25 Dec

JCX BXC ____________-7.6 ___ Oak Park ____ 27 Dec

Reckless Abandonment_-12.4___Markree _____ 28 Dec

BLIZZARD7 ________ -18.3 ___ Markree ______31 Dec and/or 11 Jan

Sryanbruen _________ -7.2 ___ Mullingar ______ 1 Jan

Tech85 ____________-10.3 ___ Gurteen _______ 4 Jan

Nacho Libre _________-13.2 ___ Oak Park ______ 5 Jan

Bazlers ____________ -13.5 ___ Mullingar ______ 6 Jan

M.T. Cranium _______ -12.8 ___ Ballyhaise ______7 Jan (or 3, 4 Feb)

Villian (Official site)___ -15.6 ___ Oak Park ______ 9 Jan (-17.7 at his site)
Cirrus Business ______ -11.6 ___ Oak Park ______ 9 Jan
Wine Goddess ________ -6.0 ___ Oak Park ______ 9 Jan

Pauldry ____________ -17.7 ___ Markree _______10 Jan
Beechwoodspark _____-14.7 ___ Oak Park ______ 10 Jan

Tazio ______________ -16.5 ___ Oak Park ______11 Jan
Artane2002 __________ -8.1 ___ Mount Dillon ___11 Jan

Up For Anything ______-15.0 ___ Kilkenny city __ 13 Jan
Esposito _____________ -8.3 ___ Oak Park _____ 13 Jan

Mount Vesuvius ______ -11.4 ___ Oak Park _____ 15 Jan
Larbre ______________ -9.4 ____Mullingar _____ 15 Jan

InstaSte ____________ -10.0 ___ Dunsany _____ 20 Jan

Ultimate Seduction _____-8.8 ___ Casement ____ 21 Jan

Meteorite58 __________ -7.6 ___ Ballyhaise ____ 25 Jan

Rebelbrowser _________ -8.4 ___ Moore Park ___ 29 Jan

Danno* ______________-9.9 ___ Thomastown ___ 3 Feb

Gaoth Laidir __________ -7.5 ___ Ballyhaise ____ 11 Feb

Konman _____________ -7.4 ___ Knock _______ 18 Feb

Conerstonelad ________-13.1 ___ Oak Park _____21 Feb

* submitted after contest closed (but we should check it anyway)

average of 29 fcsts ____-11.4 ___ Oak Park (10) __ 10 Jan (median)

Oak Park chosen by 10/29, Ballyhaise by 4, Markree by 3, Mullingar by 3, Mt. Dillon by 2,
and seven other sites had one pick each.

_________________________________________________________________

Given how March 2018 went, surprised that nobody punted for March.

Lowest so far has been -5.0 before the contest began and -2.8 since it was closed for entries.

Alternate dates should probably be ignored for the contest, I was one who offered them, but will stand or fall on 7 Jan

However, BLIZZARD7 says and/or which implies a possible tie (that can happen).


This is going to be either amazing or a trainwreck survived only by the late January or February people (most of whom went for something fairly typical).

Yes indeed MT. Certainly a train wreck for myself. Way off the mark. Bit like my school days : ).
Even a watery frost would be nice now after such a mild December!
Plenty still in with a shout. Who knows what could happen,still early days yet.
A 1947 style February would certainly leave us wide eyed!

Best of luck to all left in the competition.

pauldry

No chance of -17.7c on Thursday then.

Maybe if we all open our fridge freezers!

M.T. Cranium

bump we may have some action finally

-5.8 on 31st (Dublin) is finally colder than the early November reading.