Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

Lowest minimum temperature recording for Winter 2018/19

2»

Comments

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,803 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Jan 25th

    Ballyhaise

    - 7.6C


  • Registered Users Posts: 234 ✭✭konman


    February 18th
    knock
    -7.4


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,317 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    bazlers wrote: »
    So 10 days left to get your entries in and also to edit your entry if you wish.
    With MTC possibly starting his winter thread soon, mods if you want to merge with that thread or as MT himself suggests have this more of a discussion thread. Anyhow I guess we will see how it goes and if it starts to cause confusion just scrap it.

    This thread is fine, don't merge it with the contest thread, I put the winter forecast contest in with the December forecast contest because most of the people who have entered that in previous years were regular monthly forecasters (not all though) ... so if you're looking for that contest thread, look for the December forecast contest and enter there. You don't have to enter our December contest to submit a winter forecast.


  • Registered Users Posts: 871 ✭✭✭Captain Red Beard


    Really cold. The Midlands.


  • Registered Users Posts: 269 ✭✭Mount Vesuvius


    Nice one , just seeing this thread now.
    Well nothing will happen anytime too soon but there looks to be a considerable wave attack on the Stratosphere, forecast for mid December.
    So if that does indeed knock the hell out of it , I'll include a 3 week time lag for effects to take place, hopefully in the right place, then allow another week for snowfall and cold to deepen. So my guess is,

    January 15th
    Oak park
    Minus 11.4

    Fingers crossed.


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 15,278 ✭✭✭✭Beechwoodspark


    Jan 10th

    -14.7

    Oak Park


  • Registered Users Posts: 692 ✭✭✭bazlers


    Excellent. We will keep this thread separate.
    I will post the entries in order on Saturday.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,497 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    These are previous years' minima for Ireland to have some perspective.

    2018 (so far); -9.7c at Durrow on March 1st
    2017; -6.6c at Casement Aerodrome on December 11th
    2016; -7.3c at Markree Castle on November 25th
    2015; -7.9c at Dublin Airport on February 3rd
    2014; -7.5c at Thomastown on December 29th
    2013; -7.6c at Markree Castle on March 12th
    2012; -6.7c at Thomastown on February 2nd & Carrickmacross (Dunoge) on February 3rd
    2011; -8.3c at Thomastown on January 29th
    2010; -17.5c at Straide on December 25th
    2009; -10.0c at Mullingar on December 25th
    2008; -7.8c at Derrygreenagh on January 4th
    2007; -8.0c at Cavan on February 7th
    2006; -8.6c at Straide on March 3rd


  • Registered Users Posts: 692 ✭✭✭bazlers


    Ok this is the official list of entries for now. If there are more to come between now and tonight i will amend tomorrow. Think i have everyone but let me know if not..

    Bazlers -13.5 _Mullingar_Jan 6th

    Tazio -16.5_OAK PARK CARLOW_JAN 11th.

    Sryanbruen -7.2c at Mullingar on January 1st

    Esposito -8.3 c Oak Park 13th Jan

    Rikand -19.1 .... 25th December ...... Mt. Dillon

    Pauldry -17.7c Jan 10th Markree

    Artane2002 -8.1 Mount Dillon January 11th

    Nacho Libre January 5th -13.2 at Oak Park

    JCX BXC December 27th -7.6c Oak Park

    Wine Goddess Jan 9th -6C Oak Park

    MT Cranium -12.8 at Ballyhaise January 7th (possibly 3rd 4th Feb)

    Gaoth Laidir -7.5 at Ballyhaise, Feb 11th

    Tech85 4th january -10.3 Gurteen

    Up For Anything 13th January in Kilkenny city -15C

    Cirrus Business -11.6 at OAK PARK, 9th January.

    Reversal -8.9, Ballyhaise, December 17th

    BLIZZARD7 -18.3c, 31st of December and/or the 11th of January. Markree Castle.

    Villian Official -15.6c Oak Park January 9th (he has an unofficial one too)

    Rebelbrowser Moore Park; -8.4c; 29 January

    Conerstonelad Oak Park, - 13.1, 21Feb.

    Larbre -9.4C, Mullingar, 15th January

    Meteorite58 Jan 25th Ballyhaise- 7.6C

    Konman February 18th knock -7.4

    Mount Vesuvius January 15th Oak park -11.4

    Beechwoodspark Jan 10th -14.7 Oak Park


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,317 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Just a question, when you say "official met E station" does that include climat stations that report away from the website daily and monthly reporting? For example, I see Kilkenny City among the list of stations chosen, that's not visible on the met E "yesterday's weather" or "monthly data" or "daily data" sites. In the contest thread, we ignore all these stations that report eventually somewhere else (the Bulletin I believe is where they come to light unless somebody here knows about their readings -- this happened with the Dec 2010 cold spell, the coldest reading anywhere was a few degrees lower than the value we used for the contest minimum). For example I think Danno's station at Durrow has been colder than any of the "main" stations in some previous winters.

    It's not a big issue, just thought it would be better to clarify the rules before rather than after the fact.


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 13,497 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Just a question, when you say "official met E station" does that include climat stations that report away from the website daily and monthly reporting? For example, I see Kilkenny City among the list of stations chosen, that's not visible on the met E "yesterday's weather" or "monthly data" or "daily data" sites. In the contest thread, we ignore all these stations that report eventually somewhere else (the Bulletin I believe is where they come to light unless somebody here knows about their readings -- this happened with the Dec 2010 cold spell, the coldest reading anywhere was a few degrees lower than the value we used for the contest minimum). For example I think Danno's station at Durrow has been colder than any of the "main" stations in some previous winters.

    It's not a big issue, just thought it would be better to clarify the rules before rather than after the fact.

    They do not do the monthly weather bulletins anymore and instead add the historical data for climate stations online a few months after in the historical database. I think most of the climate stations have their data available up to June at this point. I'm waiting on their data to come in for the full Summer period to do my final and full Summer 2018 report - I think Met Éireann is too.


  • Registered Users Posts: 692 ✭✭✭bazlers


    Just a question, when you say "official met E station" does that include climat stations that report away from the website daily and monthly reporting? For example, I see Kilkenny City among the list of stations chosen, that's not visible on the met E "yesterday's weather" or "monthly data" or "daily data" sites. In the contest thread, we ignore all these stations that report eventually somewhere else (the Bulletin I believe is where they come to light unless somebody here knows about their readings -- this happened with the Dec 2010 cold spell, the coldest reading anywhere was a few degrees lower than the value we used for the contest minimum). For example I think Danno's station at Durrow has been colder than any of the "main" stations in some previous winters.

    It's not a big issue, just thought it would be better to clarify the rules before rather than after the fact.

    Yes I noticed that myself at the time but wasn't sure of age profile of entrant and wouldn't like to discount it and ruin a young persons interest in this science. Im probably been very soft here and mellowing with age maybe!
    I'm going to allow it as dead line is up now so its the only that got through. He/she can count their lucky stars :-) in fairness this competition is only a poor a relation to the December /Winter forecast competition, although I guess if it comes down to the wire, arguments have started on lesser things. On my head be it now anyhow. :-/


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,464 ✭✭✭Ultimate Seduction


    I'm a few hours late, please let me in.

    -8.8 at Casement on 21 January 2019


  • Registered Users Posts: 692 ✭✭✭bazlers


    This is the official entries for this Winter so competition closed. Ultimate Seduction is lucky to get in! I like MTCs idea of penalties after closing time. The way to go.
    Anyhow best of luck to everyone and I bet the Kilkenny forecast will come in to play. Sods law.
    Here's hoping for a cold and snowy one.

    Bazlers -13.5 _Mullingar_Jan 6th

    Tazio -16.5_OAK PARK CARLOW_JAN 11th.

    Sryanbruen -7.2c at Mullingar on January 1st

    Esposito -8.3 c Oak Park 13th Jan

    Rikand -19.1 .... 25th December ...... Mt. Dillon

    Pauldry -17.7c Jan 10th Markree

    Artane2002 -8.1 Mount Dillon January 11th

    Nacho Libre January 5th -13.2 at Oak Park

    JCX BXC December 27th -7.6c Oak Park

    Wine Goddess Jan 9th -6C Oak Park

    MT Cranium -12.8 at Ballyhaise January 7th (possibly 3rd 4th Feb)

    Gaoth Laidir -7.5 at Ballyhaise, Feb 11th

    Tech85 4th january -10.3 Gurteen

    Up For Anything 13th January in Kilkenny city -15C

    Cirrus Business -11.6 at OAK PARK, 9th January.

    Reversal -8.9, Ballyhaise, December 17th

    BLIZZARD7 -18.3c, 31st of December and/or the 11th of January. Markree Castle.

    Villian Official -15.6c Oak Park January 9th (he has an unofficial one too)

    Rebelbrowser Moore Park; -8.4c; 29 January

    Conerstonelad Oak Park, - 13.1, 21Feb.

    Larbre -9.4C, Mullingar, 15th January

    Meteorite58 Jan 25th Ballyhaise- 7.6C

    Konman February 18th knock -7.4

    Mount Vesuvius January 15th Oak park -11.4

    Beechwoodspark Jan 10th -14.7 Oak Park

    Ultimate Seduction -8.8 casement 21st January


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    These are previous years' minima for Ireland to have some perspective.

    2018 (so far); -9.7c at Durrow on March 1st
    2017; -6.6c at Casement Aerodrome on December 11th
    2016; -7.3c at Markree Castle on November 25th
    2015; -7.9c at Dublin Airport on February 3rd
    2014; -7.5c at Thomastown on December 29th
    2013; -7.6c at Markree Castle on March 12th
    2012; -6.7c at Thomastown on February 2nd & Carrickmacross (Dunoge) on February 3rd
    2011; -8.3c at Thomastown on January 29th
    2010; -17.5c at Straide on December 25th
    2009; -10.0c at Mullingar on December 25th
    2008; -7.8c at Derrygreenagh on January 4th
    2007; -8.0c at Cavan on February 7th
    2006; -8.6c at Straide on March 3rd

    Technically, that Durrow low is Feb 28th :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    -9.9c in Thomastown in Early February (3rd)


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,317 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Hey, I took the liberty of reposting the list of entries in chronological order to make it easier to follow our progress or lack thereof. ... same dates are shown in order of cold to not as cold. It's the same info but I placed it in column format. I browsed through the thread and found two more forecasts to add (Reckless Abandonment and InstaSte). Also I show Danno's late entry with an asterisk.

    FORECASTER ____ MIN ___ LOCATION ____ DATE


    Reversal ___________ -8.9 ___ Ballyhaise ____ 17 Dec

    Rikand ____________-19.1 ___ Mt. Dillon ____ 25 Dec

    JCX BXC ____________-7.6 ___ Oak Park ____ 27 Dec

    Reckless Abandonment_-12.4___Markree _____ 28 Dec

    BLIZZARD7 ________ -18.3 ___ Markree ______31 Dec and/or 11 Jan

    Sryanbruen _________ -7.2 ___ Mullingar ______ 1 Jan

    Tech85 ____________-10.3 ___ Gurteen _______ 4 Jan

    Nacho Libre _________-13.2 ___ Oak Park ______ 5 Jan

    Bazlers ____________ -13.5 ___ Mullingar ______ 6 Jan

    M.T. Cranium _______ -12.8 ___ Ballyhaise ______7 Jan (or 3, 4 Feb)

    Villian (Official site)___ -15.6 ___ Oak Park ______ 9 Jan (-17.7 at his site)
    Cirrus Business ______ -11.6 ___ Oak Park ______ 9 Jan
    Wine Goddess ________ -6.0 ___ Oak Park ______ 9 Jan

    Pauldry ____________ -17.7 ___ Markree _______10 Jan
    Beechwoodspark _____-14.7 ___ Oak Park ______ 10 Jan

    Tazio ______________ -16.5 ___ Oak Park ______11 Jan
    Artane2002 __________ -8.1 ___ Mount Dillon ___11 Jan

    Up For Anything ______-15.0 ___ Kilkenny city __ 13 Jan
    Esposito _____________ -8.3 ___ Oak Park _____ 13 Jan

    Mount Vesuvius ______ -11.4 ___ Oak Park _____ 15 Jan
    Larbre ______________ -9.4 ____Mullingar _____ 15 Jan

    InstaSte ____________ -10.0 ___ Dunsany _____ 20 Jan

    Ultimate Seduction _____-8.8 ___ Casement ____ 21 Jan

    Meteorite58 __________ -7.6 ___ Ballyhaise ____ 25 Jan

    Rebelbrowser _________ -8.4 ___ Moore Park ___ 29 Jan

    Danno* ______________-9.9 ___ Thomastown ___ 3 Feb

    Gaoth Laidir __________ -7.5 ___ Ballyhaise ____ 11 Feb

    Konman _____________ -7.4 ___ Knock _______ 18 Feb

    Conerstonelad ________-13.1 ___ Oak Park _____21 Feb

    * submitted after contest closed (but we should check it anyway)

    average of 29 fcsts ____-11.4 ___ Oak Park (10) __ 10 Jan (median)

    Oak Park chosen by 10/29, Ballyhaise by 4, Markree by 3, Mullingar by 3, Mt. Dillon by 2,
    and seven other sites had one pick each.

    _________________________________________________________________

    Given how March 2018 went, surprised that nobody punted for March.

    Lowest so far has been -5.0 before the contest began and -2.8 since it was closed for entries.

    Alternate dates should probably be ignored for the contest, I was one who offered them, but will stand or fall on 7 Jan

    However, BLIZZARD7 says and/or which implies a possible tie (that can happen).


    This is going to be either amazing or a trainwreck survived only by the late January or February people (most of whom went for something fairly typical).


  • Registered Users Posts: 692 ✭✭✭bazlers


    Hey, I took the liberty of reposting the list of entries in chronological order to make it easier to follow our progress or lack thereof. ... same dates are shown in order of cold to not as cold. It's the same info but I placed it in column format. I browsed through the thread and found two more forecasts to add (Reckless Abandonment and InstaSte). Also I show Danno's late entry with an asterisk.

    FORECASTER ____ MIN ___ LOCATION ____ DATE


    Reversal ___________ -8.9 ___ Ballyhaise ____ 17 Dec

    Rikand ____________-19.1 ___ Mt. Dillon ____ 25 Dec

    JCX BXC ____________-7.6 ___ Oak Park ____ 27 Dec

    Reckless Abandonment_-12.4___Markree _____ 28 Dec

    BLIZZARD7 ________ -18.3 ___ Markree ______31 Dec and/or 11 Jan

    Sryanbruen _________ -7.2 ___ Mullingar ______ 1 Jan

    Tech85 ____________-10.3 ___ Gurteen _______ 4 Jan

    Nacho Libre _________-13.2 ___ Oak Park ______ 5 Jan

    Bazlers ____________ -13.5 ___ Mullingar ______ 6 Jan

    M.T. Cranium _______ -12.8 ___ Ballyhaise ______7 Jan (or 3, 4 Feb)

    Villian (Official site)___ -15.6 ___ Oak Park ______ 9 Jan (-17.7 at his site)
    Cirrus Business ______ -11.6 ___ Oak Park ______ 9 Jan
    Wine Goddess ________ -6.0 ___ Oak Park ______ 9 Jan

    Pauldry ____________ -17.7 ___ Markree _______10 Jan
    Beechwoodspark _____-14.7 ___ Oak Park ______ 10 Jan

    Tazio ______________ -16.5 ___ Oak Park ______11 Jan
    Artane2002 __________ -8.1 ___ Mount Dillon ___11 Jan

    Up For Anything ______-15.0 ___ Kilkenny city __ 13 Jan
    Esposito _____________ -8.3 ___ Oak Park _____ 13 Jan

    Mount Vesuvius ______ -11.4 ___ Oak Park _____ 15 Jan
    Larbre ______________ -9.4 ____Mullingar _____ 15 Jan

    InstaSte ____________ -10.0 ___ Dunsany _____ 20 Jan

    Ultimate Seduction _____-8.8 ___ Casement ____ 21 Jan

    Meteorite58 __________ -7.6 ___ Ballyhaise ____ 25 Jan

    Rebelbrowser _________ -8.4 ___ Moore Park ___ 29 Jan

    Danno* ______________-9.9 ___ Thomastown ___ 3 Feb

    Gaoth Laidir __________ -7.5 ___ Ballyhaise ____ 11 Feb

    Konman _____________ -7.4 ___ Knock _______ 18 Feb

    Conerstonelad ________-13.1 ___ Oak Park _____21 Feb

    * submitted after contest closed (but we should check it anyway)

    average of 29 fcsts ____-11.4 ___ Oak Park (10) __ 10 Jan (median)

    Oak Park chosen by 10/29, Ballyhaise by 4, Markree by 3, Mullingar by 3, Mt. Dillon by 2,
    and seven other sites had one pick each.

    _________________________________________________________________

    Given how March 2018 went, surprised that nobody punted for March.

    Lowest so far has been -5.0 before the contest began and -2.8 since it was closed for entries.

    Alternate dates should probably be ignored for the contest, I was one who offered them, but will stand or fall on 7 Jan

    However, BLIZZARD7 says and/or which implies a possible tie (that can happen).


    This is going to be either amazing or a trainwreck survived only by the late January or February people (most of whom went for something fairly typical).

    Yes indeed MT. Certainly a train wreck for myself. Way off the mark. Bit like my school days : ).
    Even a watery frost would be nice now after such a mild December!
    Plenty still in with a shout. Who knows what could happen,still early days yet.
    A 1947 style February would certainly leave us wide eyed!

    Best of luck to all left in the competition.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,867 ✭✭✭pauldry


    No chance of -17.7c on Thursday then.

    Maybe if we all open our fridge freezers!


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,317 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    bump we may have some action finally

    -5.8 on 31st (Dublin) is finally colder than the early November reading.


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 14,317 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    From what I see then, Wine Goddess with our highest forecast of -6.0 has the closest value to the current minimum for the winter, -5.8 which occurred on the 31st of January. The closest date forecast was 29th January (Rebelbrowser) closely followed by Danno with 3 Feb (who was technically too late but at that time range I'd give that a pass). Nobody guessed Dublin or even Casement as the location, perhaps the closest to the location was InstaSte who said Dunsany (although Oak Park, a common pick, is not much further is it?).

    The highest ranked combinations of temperature and date would appear to be a toss-up between Gaoth Laidir (-7.5, 11 Feb) who was 4th mildest and 6th closest, in a virtual tie with Meteorite58 (-7.6, 25 Jan) who was tied 5th mildest and 4th closest to the date. If we get a lower temperature in March it's not likely to be much lower, so that would just have the effect of moving GL closer to the date than Meteorite. Wine Goddess holds on to a lead in the temperature portion until -6.7 should there be a March cold spell (and I can recall a winter contest where that happened with a reading of about -7 prevailing over earlier readings, so would not rule it out entirely despite the current warmth). If it does get that cold, from -6.7 to -7.3 sryanbruen (-7.2) would be closest or at -7.3 tied with Konman (-7.4).


  • Registered Users Posts: 692 ✭✭✭bazlers


    From what I see then, Wine Goddess with our highest forecast of -6.0 has the closest value to the current minimum for the winter, -5.8 which occurred on the 31st of January. The closest date forecast was 29th January (Rebelbrowser) closely followed by Danno with 3 Feb (who was technically too late but at that time range I'd give that a pass). Nobody guessed Dublin or even Casement as the location, perhaps the closest to the location was InstaSte who said Dunsany (although Oak Park, a common pick, is not much further is it?).

    The highest ranked combinations of temperature and date would appear to be a toss-up between Gaoth Laidir (-7.5, 11 Feb) who was 4th mildest and 6th closest, in a virtual tie with Meteorite58 (-7.6, 25 Jan) who was tied 5th mildest and 4th closest to the date. If we get a lower temperature in March it's not likely to be much lower, so that would just have the effect of moving GL closer to the date than Meteorite. Wine Goddess holds on to a lead in the temperature portion until -6.7 should there be a March cold spell (and I can recall a winter contest where that happened with a reading of about -7 prevailing over earlier readings, so would not rule it out entirely despite the current warmth). If it does get that cold, from -6.7 to -7.3 sryanbruen (-7.2) would be closest or at -7.3 tied with Konman (-7.4).

    In fairness the competition was for December, January, February. I think these results should be the out come.

    In fairness we can't predict if the winter as a whole will be mild or cold! Guessing the lowest temp, in a named place and date would be a fair achievement :-)


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,317 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    We should never assume that this question will never be resolved, there's no telling what scientific advances may occur in the future, in fact I am rather surprised that our science lags so far behind all the others in that regard. Also I don't tend to see things quite as hopelessly since reasonably reliable long range forecasting is already a given in North America, we don't tend to take this approach to the state of the art, and I can't conceive of an atmospheric system in which one part could be accurately modelled and other parts could not.

    People are a bit down in the dumps about this winter not turning out cold and snowy as almost everyone who made a forecast thought might be the case, and it's just a spur to determined researchers to do better in the future. I've never been a quitter, only death will end the search.

    As to the contest being only the three winter months, that's your call. I don't remember reading that but maybe it was in the original post.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,317 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I mean, if you could go back to let's say 1850 and ask people, okay which of these three things will not happen by the year 2020:

    (a) men will land on the Moon

    (b) people will have devices in their homes that allow them to communicate with anyone anywhere, and do millions of arithmetic sums in less than one second

    (c) there will be accurate long-term weather forecasts.

    Likely some would say, "you're crazy on a and b, but we already have c, look at the berry bushes."

    :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 550 ✭✭✭Wine Goddess


    Just read that I'm closest to the lowest temperature of the winter! You could knock me over with a feather, given the depth of knowledge others on this forum have! I'd be inclined to rule meself out on the basis of sheer guesswork LOL


  • Registered Users Posts: 692 ✭✭✭bazlers


    We should never assume that this question will never be resolved, there's no telling what scientific advances may occur in the future, in fact I am rather surprised that our science lags so far behind all the others in that regard. Also I don't tend to see things quite as hopelessly since reasonably reliable long range forecasting is already a given in North America, we don't tend to take this approach to the state of the art, and I can't conceive of an atmospheric system in which one part could be accurately modelled and other parts could not.

    People are a bit down in the dumps about this winter not turning out cold and snowy as almost everyone who made a forecast thought might be the case, and it's just a spur to determined researchers to do better in the future. I've never been a quitter, only death will end the search.

    As to the contest being only the three winter months, that's your call. I don't remember reading that but maybe it was in the original post.

    Yep it's there in the first post. We can let it roll it was only for a bit of entertainment.
    I blame the jackdaws for the mild winter. No reason but it was either ye or the Holly berries that's for sure ; )


Advertisement