No wonder millennials can't afford a mortgage

Manic Moran · 20-09-2018 11:16pm

I've seen a number of interesting proposals, varying from forced relocation to compulsory purchase orders, few of which are practicable or cheap. I am astounded, especially on a board filled with younger folks, that nobody has suggested an incentive for telecommuting.

Ireland is not a large country. You can live almost anywhere and still be in a tolerable distance (eg 90-minutes) to show up at the office two or three times a month. Even if only 10% of Dublin workers can physically do their work from home, and only half of those are permitted to, what would that 5% reduction mean to traffic jams and infrastructure requirements, pollution and costs spent on commuting in both time and Euros? Would even 3% of people deciding that living in Athlone or Portlaoise or wherever on a motorway or rail line because they could earn the same money in a cheaper/bigger house not both aid the rural economies and have an effect on the housing shortage in Dublin? Give companies a tax break for telecommuting, and see what happens. The loss of tax revenue may be equalled by the lesser requirement for travel infrastructure upkeep and expansion.

Augeo wrote: »

I don't know anyone who has a mortgage payment that's 50% of their gross income.

Most of us do around here. (California)
https://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/news/2018/06/25/san-jose-home-price-vs-income-mortgage-cost.html

Here, more than half — 51.2 percent — of the median family income goes to the house payment. [Moran's note: Family income. Most of us are dual-income families around here, we have to be. For a single-income family, you can see where this would go]

Zillow forecasts that if mortgage interest rates, which are already climbing, hit 5 percent next year as some economists predict, San Jose’s mortgage burden would skyrocket to nearly 61 percent.

I was personally paying somewhere over 40% of my gross, myself, until my recent raise and additional jobs. About 65% of my net take-home. You guys don't have a uniquely Irish problem.

It's annoying as all hell, but we do it because we choose to live here and for some reason think it's worth it.

That said, no more. I'm leaving. And since I telecommute, I'm leaving for somewhere cheaper, and will drive to the office about 90-105minutes away two or three times a month...

That said, a number of companies have decided that leaving expensive places in the US makes sense. Not just because of the cost of the office space, but because they also need to pay their employees more to give them the same effective income, and because the employees are happier not spending 10% of their working lives commuting. You may start to see a 'decentralisation' of private employers from Dublin if things continue and costs escalate.

ceadaoin. · 20-09-2018 11:30pm

Manic Moran wrote: »

Most of us do around here. (California)
https://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/news/2018/06/25/san-jose-home-price-vs-income-mortgage-cost.html

Here, more than half — 51.2 percent — of the median family income goes to the house payment. [Moran's note: Family income. Most of us are dual-income families around here, we have to be. For a single-income family, you can see where this would go]

Zillow forecasts that if mortgage interest rates, which are already climbing, hit 5 percent next year as some economists predict, San Jose’s mortgage burden would skyrocket to nearly 61 percent.

I was personally paying somewhere over 40% of my gross, myself, until my recent raise and additional jobs. About 65% of my net take-home. You guys don't have a uniquely Irish problem.

It's annoying as all hell, but we do it because we choose to live here and for some reason think it's worth it.

That said, no more. I'm leaving. And since I telecommute, I'm leaving for somewhere cheaper, and will drive to the office about 90-105minutes away two or three times a month...

A lot of Californians are moving here to Vegas too as it gets more expensive there. This influx is partly responsible for pushing up house prices here as a result, lots of people see them as creating the same problems in other states that caused them to move in the first place.

Manic Moran · 20-09-2018 11:40pm

That where you are? Up for a pint first weekend of November?

But, yes. I've seen a common refrain from Nevadans, Idahoans, Texans etc... "Those Californians went and screwed up their State, now they want to come here and do the same things again." (Both economically and politically)

BBFAN · 20-09-2018 11:53pm

Manic Moran wrote:

I've seen a number of interesting proposals, varying from forced relocation to compulsory purchase orders, few of which are practicable or cheap. I am astounded, especially on a board filled with younger folks, that nobody has suggested an incentive for telecommuting.

Great idea in theory. Issue with that is quality broadband coverage.

ceadaoin. · 20-09-2018 11:55pm

Manic Moran wrote: »

That where you are? Up for a pint first weekend of November?

But, yes. I've seen a common refrain from Nevadans, Idahoans, Texans etc... "Those Californians went and screwed up their State, now they want to come here and do the same things again." (Both economically and politically)

Yes that's exactly what they say..and we don't want your Raiders either!

Manic Moran · 21-09-2018 12:33am

BBFAN wrote: »

Manic Moran wrote:

I've seen a number of interesting proposals, varying from forced relocation to compulsory purchase orders, few of which are practicable or cheap. I am astounded, especially on a board filled with younger folks, that nobody has suggested an incentive for telecommuting.

Great idea in theory. Issue with that is quality broadband coverage.

I just looked up broadband availability in Portlaoise and Mullingar as two towns within reasonable rail distance. Seems OK. What am I missing?

And even at that it’s still a cheaper fix than building new houses.

troyzer · 21-09-2018 7:33am

I wish I could telecommute. It's annoying because there are only two of us in my particular section of my organisation: my boss and I. He telecommutes from Waterford but still needs to be in the office three days a week.

I can't telecommute at all, there needs to be someone here everyday.

Ray Palmer · 21-09-2018 8:21am

Manic Moran wrote: »

I've seen a number of interesting proposals, varying from forced relocation to compulsory purchase orders, few of which are practicable or cheap. I am astounded, especially on a board filled with younger folks, that nobody has suggested an incentive for telecommuting.

I work in IT here and I can tell you from my experience on consultant jobs telecommuting isn't an option. Management don't like it as productivity drops dramatically. Not sure if it is an Irish mentality thing but studies around the world also find it a problem to some extent. Firstly the staff need to be computer literate more so than their regular job requires, about 80% had connection problems due to the fault between the chair and the computer.

Recently work needed to free desk space and wanted to have some of the team across the road in a different building. People complained that is would cause too much extra work and disconnect the team.

It can be difficult getting people to work when in the office let alone when at home and requires very disciplined staff and very good management. Really is a case by case situation.

Another issue which may only affect the public sector and some companies is desk allocation. In the civil service if you have to be in the office at all you must have an allocated desk and this applies to some large older companies too. So even if you had 50% of staff telecommuting you would still need the same amount of desks and infrastructure on top of a telecommuting network. Given the largest free parking for employees is civil servants in Dublin you can see how that would have a big impact of commuting and congestion. The public service effectively can't telecommute. The unions would have to give up the allocate desk policy and management aren't going to look for that to make their live more difficult.

Private companies are not keen on it due to security risks. It is also not good for the workers with most gaining weight and suffering social isolation. Telecommuting is a nice concept but reality is somewhat different when actually experienced.

s7ryf3925pivug · 21-09-2018 8:35am

I telecommute one day a week. I did it more frequently during specific periods. My experience is that it's harder to switch in and out of work mode. You can take a while to get started, and you can end up doing 10 hour days as stopping can also be difficult. Overall I do a bit kore work when I work from home, bit the variation in the amount I get done is greater.

On a personal level it is greatly beneficial, especially when combined with great flexibility in hours. You need to set boundaries pretty firmly sometimes. Some people take you working from home as being available for social calls or other personal stuff. This aspect has made it impossible for some people I know to do it.

It's something I've negotiated rather than been offered. Managers havent been enthusiastic at first. When they get comfortable with it, they still have not wanted to offer it to more people.

hatrickpatrick · 22-09-2018 5:40pm

Manic Moran wrote: »

I've seen a number of interesting proposals, varying from forced relocation to compulsory purchase orders, few of which are practicable or cheap. I am astounded, especially on a board filled with younger folks, that nobody has suggested an incentive for telecommuting.

If we're going to do that, we need to bring the state subvention to public transport back to the level in which people aren't getting utterly fleeced even for the shortest of commutes. €5+ daily for a DART from Dun Laoghaire in and out of town is already almost double what it was ten years ago, and it's being increased literally every single Winter when the annual NTA fare revision comes around. This is astronomically higher when you're looking at inter-city public transport. Couple that with the early cessation of services on weekends, thus severely limiting the social lives of people who don't live close to cities, and commuting long distances becomes a major headache.

Let me give you one very obvious example, in fact: I had a friend two years ago who got a job in Dalkey and was looking for somewhere to live. He found a place with a good rental price and very close to the DART line in Greystones - then he discovered that DARTs to and from Greystones only run every half an hour due to the repeated broken promise to build a second railway line from Bray, and that the latest he'd be able to stay in town on non-Nitelink nights would be roughly 11PM.

Obviously a city like Dublin should be able to sustain a commuting lifestyle, but out politicians' refusal to actually create a modern transport infrastructure is a major stumbling block for this. And Dublin is currently the only city in the whole country with a short hop rail service like the DART or LUAS - I imagine these problems are amplified ten-fold if you want to live in Galway or Cork, for instance.

Grayson · 22-09-2018 7:13pm

Alberto Fat Stud wrote: »

I telecommute one day a week. I did it more frequently during specific periods. My experience is that it's harder to switch in and out of work mode. You can take a while to get started, and you can end up doing 10 hour days as stopping can also be difficult. Overall I do a bit kore work when I work from home, bit the variation in the amount I get done is greater.

On a personal level it is greatly beneficial, especially when combined with great flexibility in hours. You need to set boundaries pretty firmly sometimes. Some people take you working from home as being available for social calls or other personal stuff. This aspect has made it impossible for some people I know to do it.

It's something I've negotiated rather than been offered. Managers havent been enthusiastic at first. When they get comfortable with it, they still have not wanted to offer it to more people.

I lived in a house where I had a spare room that could be used as an office. That was ok for working from home. I find it really hard to do it no I'm living in a one bedroomed apt. I just can't focus most of the time.

AndrewJRenko · 22-09-2018 9:31pm

Ray Palmer wrote: »

Another issue which may only affect the public sector and some companies is desk allocation. In the civil service if you have to be in the office at all you must have an allocated desk and this applies to some large older companies too. So even if you had 50% of staff telecommuting you would still need the same amount of desks and infrastructure on top of a telecommuting network. Given the largest free parking for employees is civil servants in Dublin you can see how that would have a big impact of commuting and congestion.

I'd love to see the data that you used to come to this conclusion?

On the broader issue, I really wonder about the amount of money spent my millenials on their grooming - tanning, teeth whitening, beard grooming, designer handbags - the grand a go spent on attending their peers' weddings etc etc.

riclad · 22-09-2018 10:32pm

Its very simple ,since 2008, the central banks have kept interest rates low, and increased the money supply to fix the financial crisis
And stabilise the financial system.
This has resulted in all assets going up in price, gold, art, property.
So the result is most millenials are finding it hard to buy houses in ireland and the uk.
Wages have hardly gone since 2008, house prices have gone up by 90 per cent plus.
If all young people stopped buying coffee or expensive snacks it would not help them much.
And its hard to save up for a deposit if you are paying high rent.
I,D imagine the staff at google, facebook, could do most of their work at home, if they had fast broadband installed.
They are highly qualified in programming and web design.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/254220/value-of-euro-coins-in-circulation-since-2002/
Every generation looks down on the next,
eg young people nowadays are ,insert your cliche here.
lazy, rude,ignorant etc

s7ryf3925pivug · 22-09-2018 11:16pm

Yeah it’s a weird one. House prices were crazy for late gen x too, but the rents weren’t so horrible, and you could get mortgages more easily (too easily). The smart thing to do at that time was not to buy, because the crash was coming... I read predictions of it on this site in fact [so thanks boards as I held off when I could have bought right before the bubble burst].

Seems to be a bit of hate on this thread... It’s sh!t not to be able to hope to own your own home. It’s sh!t paying out huge portions of your income to live in a mediocre apartment. If you haven’t experienced either then you’re either old or lucky. Personal achievement has less effect on it than the state of various markets do, jobs market included.

No wonder millennials can't afford a mortgage

Comments