July 2019 Boards weather forecast contest

Thanks, you were right, in fact Ulster won both the tie-breakers in play but the first one is the comparison of the two cooler locations after the two warmer ones are tied.

Here's the rest of the update after three weeks ...

IMT stands at 15.8 C with the third week 16.5, 0.9 above normal. Will likely get pushed into mid 16s before slight downgrades later, might reach about 16.3 for end of month.

MAX will be revised after today as I noticed 27 on hourly report from Phoenix Park. (It was 24.2).

MIN stands at 3.6.

PRC got a big boost yesterday (and before that at Claremorris), the month now sits at 99% of normal with this past week 230% on average, although Cork came in below average. Looks like another upward jolt later this week, despite the dry first half the month could come in above normal now.

SUN has fallen off to 106% with this past week only 73% of normal (438/600).

As tracked above by Jpmarn, the bonus question stands at 12-9 for Connacht vs Ulster.

The IMT rounds off at 16.5 (from 16.46) but seems more likely to drift down now, could finish on 16.3 perhaps.

Only waterways predicted a win for Ulster, 14-17, equal error to three who said 16-15 Connacht. (Jpmarn, mickger844posts, sryanbruen).

So it's now official for August, the final stage of the all-Ireland temperature showdown will be Leinster vs Ulster.

The Monthly Summary confirmed the preliminary results except for a slight adjustment to SUN

Confirmed values (IMT 16.3, MAX 26.6, MIN 3.6, PRC 091, SUN 103, Connacht vs Ulster15-16).


Final scoring for July 2019


FORECASTER ____________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN ___ C vs U___ TOTAL __ (B)


Artane2002 _____________ 23 _ 20*_ 18 _ 15 _ 09 ____ 06 ______ 91 _____ (16)

pauldry _________________24 _ 19*_ 15 _ 09 _ 09 ____ 09 ______ 85 _____ (16)

Tae laidir _______________ 19 _ 14*_ 20 _ 13 _ 09 ____ 08 ______ 83 _____ (17)

sryanbruen ______________15 _ 17*_ 16 _ 15 _ 09 ____ 10 ______ 82 _____ (20)

Sunflower3 ______________24 _ 08*_ 16 _ 15 _ 07 ____ 09 ______ 79 _____ (16)

mickger844posts _________ 23 _ 10*_ 11 _ 14 _ 09 ____ 10 ______ 77 _____ (17)

200motels ______________ 25 _ 06*_ 19 _ 09 _ 09 ____ 09 ______ 77 _____ (19)

Bsal ___________________ 21 _ 06*_ 19 _ 15 _ 09 ____ 07 ______ 77 _____ (17)


___ NormaL ____________ 15 _ 17*_ 16 _ 12 _ 09 ____ 08 ______ 77 _____ (17)


DOCARCH _______________21 _ 06*_ 20 _ 15 _ 07 ____ 07 ______ 76 _____ (14)

MrSkinner _______________18 _ 10*_ 16 _ 15 _ 08 ____ 08 ______ 75 _____ (14)


____ Con Sensus _________19 _ 08*_ 16 _ 15 _ 09 ____ 07 ______ 74 _____ (16)


YanSno _________________18 _ 03*_ 19 _ 15 _ 09 ____ 09 ______ 73 _____ (16)

Adam240610 ____________ 18 _ 15*_ 15 _ 09 _ 08 ____ 07 ______ 72 _____ (17)

Kindred Spirit (-5) ________ 22 _ 11*_ 14 _ 15 _ 07 ____ 07__76-5=71 _____ (12)

Gonzo ___ (-3) ___________14 _ 18*_ 11 _ 13 _ 08 ____ 09__73-3=70 _____ (19)

M.T. Cranium ____________ 20 _ 02*_ 19 _ 13 _ 08 ____ 07 ______ 69 _____ (14)

JCXBXC __ (-2) __________ 19 _ 14*_ 13 _ 09 _ 06 ____ 07__68-2=66 _____ (16)

Rikand _________________ 22 _ 02*_ 14 _ 15 _ 07 ____ 05 ______ 65 _____ (14)

Dasa29 ________________ 13 _ 17*_ 09 _ 12 _ 06 ____ 08 ______ 65 _____ (15)

johnmac _______________ 13 _ 08*_ 14 _ 12 _ 09 ____ 06 ______ 62 _____ (14)

Dacogawa ______________ 24 _ 00*_ 15 _ 10 _ 10 ____ 02 ______ 61 _____ (11)

waterways ______________ 17 _ 04*_ 14 _ 07 _ 06 ____ 10 ______ 58 _____ (17)

BLIZZARD7 _____________ 14 _ 02*_ 14 _ 09 _ 09 ____ 09 ______ 57 _____ (16)

Joe Public _______________17 _ 12*_ 09 _ 06 _ 07 ____ 05 ______ 56 _____ (11)

Rameire __(-3) __________ 16 _ 03*_ 14 _ 13 _ 08 ____ 03 __57-3=54_____ (12)

Jpmarn _________________25 _ 01*_ 07 _ 03 _ 04 ____ 10 ______ 50 _____ (17)


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Notes:

MAX scored from minimum progression as ten raw scores of zero, highest raw score was 17/20 so full boost in play, one forecast at each score from 20 down to 6 (which had three tied), then a fair distribution from 4 down to 0. (ties jogged that around a bit, Normal and Con score same as some forecaster(s) from that result).

BONUS -- as nobody had exactly 15-16, scores start from either side of that and work down, so with just one on higher side for Ulster (14-17), three had equal error 16-15 for ten points, and 17-14 worth nine, 18-13 gets eight, etc. Waterways carries tie breaker for superbonus points (after August, top June to August bonus score gets two superbonus, second gets one). In June, everyone but dasa29 has a tiebreaker for correct province. So waterways has 2 correct provinces, dasa29 has zero, everyone else has one.

After the July total score is a number in brackets which is the total bonus score June + July tracking the superbonus points for August.

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Scoring was relatively high for July, I don't recall a month where all scores were over 50 before, and congrats to Artane2002 (91), and Pauldry, tae laidir and sryanbruen who were above 80 points.

Annual scoring update follows soon.

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(Forecasts)

FORECASTER ____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ C vs U


mickger844posts _________ 16.5 _ 28.1 _ 4.5 _ 088 _ 108 ____ 16-15

Jpmarn _________________16.3 _ 29.2 _ 4.9 _ 055 _ 135 ____ 16-15

200motels ______________ 16.3 _ 28.6 _ 3.5 _ 108 _ 098 ____ 17-14

Dacogawa ______________ 16.2 _ 29.8 _ 3.1 _ 075 _ 105 ____ 24-07

Sunflower3 _____________ 16.2 _ 28.2 _ 4.0 _ 090 _ 090 ____ 19-12

pauldry ________________ 16.2 _ 27.0 _ 3.1 _ 109 _ 099 ____ 17-14

Artane2002 _____________16.1 _ 26.3 _ 3.8 _ 090 _ 110 ____ 20-11

Rikand _________________16.0 _ 29.0 _ 3.0 _ 090 _ 120 ____ 21-10

Kindred Spirit (-5) _______ 16.0 _ 28.0 _ 3.0 _ 090 _ 120 ____ 19-12

Bsal ___________________15.9 _ 28.6 _ 3.5 _ 090 _ 110 ____ 19-12

DOCARCH ______________ 15.9 _ 28.6 _ 3.6 _ 090 _ 120 ____ 19-12

M.T. Cranium ____________15.8 _ 29.0 _ 3.5 _ 085 _ 115 ____ 19-12


____ Con Sensus _________15.7 _ 28.2 _ 3.2 _ 090 _ 110 ____ 19-12


JCXBXC __ (-2) __________ 15.7 _ 27.3 _ 2.9 _ 110 _ 125 ____ 19-12

Tae laidir _______________ 15.7 _ 27.3 _ 3.6 _ 084 _ 107 ____ 18-13

YanSno _________________15.6 _ 28.9 _ 3.5 _ 090 _ 100 ____ 17-14

MrSkinner _______________15.6 _ 28.1 _ 4.0 _ 090 _ 111 ____ 18-13

Adam240610 ____________ 15.6 _ 27.6 _ 3.1 _ 073 _ 113 ____ 19-12

waterways ______________ 15.5 _ 28.7 _ 3.4 _ 068 _ 122 ____ 14-17

Joe Public _______________15.5 _ 27.9 _ 2.5 _ 065 _ 120 ____ 21-10

Rameire __(-3) __________ 15.4 _ 28.9 _ 3.0 _ 098 _ 115 ____ 23 - 8


___ NormaL ____________ 15.3 _ 27.5 _ 4.0 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 18-13


sryanbruen _____________ 15.3 _ 25.7 _ 3.2 _ 090 _ 100 ____ 16-15

BLIZZARD7 _____________ 15.2 _ 29.0 _ 3.0 _ 110 _ 100 ____ 17-14

Gonzo ___ (-3) __________ 15.2 _ 25.9 _ 2.7 _ 085 _ 095 ____ 17-14

johnmac ________________15.1 _ 28.2 _ 3.0 _ 102 _ 098 ____ 20-11

Dasa29 ________________ 15.1 _ 27.5 _ 2.5 _ 100 _ 125 ____ 18-13

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Con Sensus (median) is 13th ranked of 25 values.