July 2019 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT, mean temperature at five locations in Ireland (Claremorris, Casement, Mullingar, Oak Park, Shannon) for July, 2019. The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 15.3 deg C.

2. Predict the MAX temperature at any regularly reporting Met-E station as reported in the Monthly Summary (and daily in the "yesterday's weather" section of their website), during July.

3. Predict the MIN temperature during July (see 2 above for overview).

4. Predict the PRC (rainfall at this time of year) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at eleven locations, namely Ballyhaise, Cork, Malin Head, Belmullet, Cork, Johnstown Castle, and the five locations for the IMT (section 1 above), during July.

5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at six locations, Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork and Valentia, during July.

6. BONUS -- Continuing the Battle of the Provinces, read carefully ... this time it will be Connacht vs Ulster, same general idea as June but now two locations take part for each province, and the winner is the highest of all four. If two tie then the other two are used to break the tie. If that fails then the warmest overnight low among them determines the winner. And if that fails, the win goes to the holder of the previous day. The locations going into battle will be Athenry and Markree for Connacht and Finner and Ballyhaise for Ulster. They have identical July mean temperatures (Athenry and Ballyhaise 15.5, and Markree, Finner 15.1). So I will set normal at 18-13 for Connacht thinking that the diurnal range might be a bit larger there (so average max may not be identical as is the daily mean).

You can post your guess for this in any form as long as I can tell which province gets how many wins, but to make it standard go with Connacht wins vs Ulster wins.

To make sure you're understanding this,

(a) your guesses must total 31, e.g., 20-11, 29-2, 14-17 etc.

(b) winner is highest max of all four, not an average of the two vs the other average.

(c) It's Athenry/Markree vs Ballyhaise/Finner -- anywhere else in the relevant provinces not applicable to the contest (sorry Mountdillon).

(z) Connacht is whereas Ulster ... okay you all know this part ...

=========================================

Here's my predictions and those of NormaL to get us started ...

MTC ______ 15.8 _ 29.0 _ 3.5 _ 085 _ 115 ____ 19-12 (C vs U)

NormaL ___ 15.3 _ 27.5 _ 4.0 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 18-13 (C vs U)

=========================================

Late penalties will be 1 point for every four hours after deadline of 0300h Monday 1st of July to 1500h 2nd (at that time, -9 pts) then 1 additional point for every hour late after that.

Good luck, have fun, the August bonus will be the June winner vs the July winner for the all-Ireland title, may allow in three per province that time.

sryanbruen

sryanbruen ______ 15.3 _ 25.7 _ 3.2 _ 090 _ 100 ____ 16-15 (C vs U)

Might edit the IMT on last day but I'm feeling very pessimistic right now about July.

pauldry

pauldry______ 16.2_ 27.0 _ 3.1 _ 109_ 99____ 17-14 connacht

Bsal

Bsal ___ 15.9 _ 28.6 _ 3.5 _ 90 _ 110 ____ 19-12 (C vs U)

Rikand

Rikand ___ 16.0 ___ 29.0 ___ 3.0 ___ 90 ___ 120 ___ 21-10 Connacht

200motels

200motels ___16.3. 28.6. 3.5. 108. 98. 17-14 connacht

sunflower3

Sunflower3___ 16.2 ___ 28.2 ___ 4.0 ___ 90 ___ 90 ___ 19-12 Connacht

Artane2002

Artane2002 ______ 16.1 _ 26.3 _ 3.8 _ 090 _ 110 ____ 20-11 (C vs U)

dasa29

Dasa29 ______ 15.1 _ 27.5 _ 2.5 _ 100 _ 125 ____ 18-13 (C vs U)

DOCARCH

DOCARCH ___ 15.9 ___ 28.6 ___ 3.6 ___ 90 ___ 120 ___ 19-12 Connacht

YanSno

YanSno ______ 15.6 _ 28.9 _ 3.5 _ 090 _ 100 ____ 17-14 (C vs U)

mickger844posts

mickger844posts ___16.5_28.1_ 4.5_ 88_108_ 16-15 connacht

mrskinner

MrsKinner._____15.6____28.1____4.0____90____111____18/13

John mac

johnmac ______ 15.1 _ 28.2 _ 3.0 _ 102 _ 98 ____ 20-11 (C vs U)

waterways

waterways ___ 15.5 _ 28.7 _ 3.4 _ 68 _ 122 ____ 14-17

Jpmarn

Jpmarn ___ 16.3 _ 29.2 _ 4.9 _ 55 _ 135 ____ 16-15 (C vs U)

Let the battle of the provinces begin.

Joe Public

Joe Public___ 15.5 _ 27.9 _ 2.5 _ 65 _ 120 ____ 21-10 (C v U)

dacogawa

Dacogawa______ 16.2_ 29.8 _ 3.1 _ 75_ 105___ 24-07 (C vs U)

Tae laidir

Tae laidir ___ 15.7 _ 27.3 _ 3.6 _ 84 _ 107 ____ 18-13

adam240610

Adam240610__ 15.6__27.6__3.1__73__113__19-12 (C v U)

BLIZZARD7

BLIZZARD7______ 15.2 _ 29.0 _ 3.0 _ 110 _ 100 ____ 17-14 (C vs U)

JCX BXC

JCXBXC ______ 15.7_ 27.3 _ 2.9 _ 110 _ 125 ____ 19-12 (C vs U)

Melanchthon

mickger844posts wrote: »

mickger844posts ___16.5_28.1_ 4.5_ 88_108_ 16-15 connacht

_

rameire

Rameire ___ 15.4 ___ 28.9 ___ 3.0 ___ 98 ___ 115 ___ 23-8 Connacht

Jpmarn

Just looking into yesterday's weather before the battle of the provinces begins just as a preview.
Connaught Athenry 16.4°C Markee 18.0°C
Ulster Ballyhaise 18.5°C Finner 16.5C
If yesterday was in the contest Ulster would have earned a point but it doesn’t count as we have to wait until tomorrow to judge which province will score.

Gonzo

Gonzo ______ 15.2 _ 25.9 _ 2.7 _ 085 _ 95 ____ 17-14 (C vs U)

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for July 2019


FORECASTER ____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ C vs U


mickger844posts _________ 16.5 _ 28.1 _ 4.5 _ 088 _ 108 ____ 16-15

Jpmarn _________________16.3 _ 29.2 _ 4.9 _ 055 _ 135 ____ 16-15

200motels ______________ 16.3 _ 28.6 _ 3.5 _ 108 _ 098 ____ 17-14

Dacogawa ______________ 16.2 _ 29.8 _ 3.1 _ 075 _ 105 ____ 24-07

Sunflower3 _____________ 16.2 _ 28.2 _ 4.0 _ 090 _ 090 ____ 19-12

pauldry ________________ 16.2 _ 27.0 _ 3.1 _ 109 _ 099 ____ 17-14

Artane2002 _____________16.1 _ 26.3 _ 3.8 _ 090 _ 110 ____ 20-11

Rikand _________________16.0 _ 29.0 _ 3.0 _ 090 _ 120 ____ 21-10

Kindred Spirit (-5) _______ 16.0 _ 28.0 _ 3.0 _ 090 _ 120 ____ 19-12

Bsal ___________________15.9 _ 28.6 _ 3.5 _ 090 _ 110 ____ 19-12

DOCARCH ______________ 15.9 _ 28.6 _ 3.6 _ 090 _ 120 ____ 19-12

M.T. Cranium ____________15.8 _ 29.0 _ 3.5 _ 085 _ 115 ____ 19-12


____ Con Sensus _________15.7 _ 28.2 _ 3.2 _ 090 _ 110 ____ 19-12


JCXBXC __ (-2) __________ 15.7 _ 27.3 _ 2.9 _ 110 _ 125 ____ 19-12

Tae laidir _______________ 15.7 _ 27.3 _ 3.6 _ 084 _ 107 ____ 18-13

YanSno _________________15.6 _ 28.9 _ 3.5 _ 090 _ 100 ____ 17-14

MrSkinner _______________15.6 _ 28.1 _ 4.0 _ 090 _ 111 ____ 18-13

Adam240610 ____________ 15.6 _ 27.6 _ 3.1 _ 073 _ 113 ____ 19-12

waterways ______________ 15.5 _ 28.7 _ 3.4 _ 068 _ 122 ____ 14-17

Joe Public _______________15.5 _ 27.9 _ 2.5 _ 065 _ 120 ____ 21-10

Rameire __(-3) __________ 15.4 _ 28.9 _ 3.0 _ 098 _ 115 ____ 23 - 8


___ NormaL ____________ 15.3 _ 27.5 _ 4.0 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 18-13


sryanbruen _____________ 15.3 _ 25.7 _ 3.2 _ 090 _ 100 ____ 16-15

BLIZZARD7 _____________ 15.2 _ 29.0 _ 3.0 _ 110 _ 100 ____ 17-14

Gonzo ___ (-3) __________ 15.2 _ 25.9 _ 2.7 _ 085 _ 095 ____ 17-14

johnmac ________________15.1 _ 28.2 _ 3.0 _ 102 _ 098 ____ 20-11

Dasa29 ________________ 15.1 _ 27.5 _ 2.5 _ 100 _ 125 ____ 18-13

_______________________________________________________________

Con Sensus (median) is 13th ranked of 25 values.

The choices for Connacht vs Ulster have the following profile:

24 - 7 ______________ 1
23 - 8 ______________ 1
22 - 9 ______________ 0
21-10 ______________ 2
20-11 ______________ 2
19-12 ______________ 7
18-13 ______________ 3
17-14 ______________ 5
16-15 ______________ 3
15-16 ______________ 0
14-17 ______________ 1

Scoring will be 10 minus one for each category missed, and if the outcome lies outside the range, the closest value will be used (e.g., outcome 25-6, then 24-7 will score 10, 23-8 will score 9, etc).

Only one brave soul has chosen Ulster to win but eight foresee a closer battle than our most popular choice, 19-12.

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___ 16.00 ___ 28.0 ___ 3.00 ___ 90 ___ 120 ___ 19-12

Jpmarn

The battle of the provinces Day 1.

Connaught Athenry 19.0°C Markee 16.2°C
Ulster Ballyhaise 17.3°C Finner 15.8C

As Athenry has the highest temperature of the four stations it is 1-0 to Connaught.

M.T. Cranium

Melanchthon wrote: »

(mick's forecast) followed by

_

Curious as to significance of this post.

Jpmarn

The battle of the provinces Day 2.

Connaught Athenry 17.0°C Markee 17.1°C
Ulster Ballyhaise 17.3°C Finner 15.9C

As Ballyhaise has the highest temperature of the four stations a point is awarded to Ulster making it C. 1 U. 1.


Posters may copy and paste this format and edit it to contain the correct temperatures and result for the particular day.

M.T. Cranium

We will have a MIN to post as I noticed some 4 C hourly obs early this morning.

Jpmarn

The battle of the provinces Day 3.

Connaught Athenry 21.3°C Markee 19.1°C
Ulster Ballyhaise 18.8°C Finner 18.3C

As Athenry has the highest temperature of the four stations a point is awarded to Connaught making it C. 2 U. 1.

Some pretty low temperatures were recorded yesterday morning but the MIN goes to Markee Castle 3.6°C I hope there me no lower temperatures for the rest of this month.
Yesterday’s warm spot and has been a pretty warm spot for the last few days is Mt. Dillon at 21.7°C. It would have stolen a point off Ulster if this station was included in the bonus contest.

Jpmarn

The battle of the provinces Day 4.

Connaught Athenry 18.6°C Markee 17.2°C
Ulster Ballyhaise 19.1°C Finner 16.4C

As Ballyhaise has the highest temperature of the four stations a point is awarded to Ulster making it C. 2 U. 2.

Probable MAX temperature, Phoenix Park 23.3°C. I expect that figure to be beaten by the end of the month.

Tae laidir

Day 5
Athenry 18.2 Markee 18.9
Ballyhaise 21.1 Finner 16.6
C V U 2-3
Cork Airport reached 22.7.

Jpmarn

Ulster extends its lead over Connaught.

The battle of the provinces Day 6.

Connaught Athenry 17.4°C Markee 18.3°C
Ulster Ballyhaise 19.5°C Finner 18.2C

As Ballyhaise has the highest temperature of the four stations a point is awarded to Ulster making it C. 2 U. 4.

Jpmarn

The battle of the provinces Day 7.

Connaught Athenry 20.0°C Markee 17.7°C
Ulster Ballyhaise 19.6°C Finner 18.0C

As Athenry has the highest temperature of the four stations a point is awarded to Connaught making it C. 3 U. 4

According to forecasts we might be setting a new MAX this week.

M.T. Cranium

Report on the first week of July ...

IMT was 14.6 which is 0.4 below normal for the period.

MAX 23.3 and MIN 3.6.

PRC 13% of normal, southwest basically dry.

SUN 134.5% of normal (807/600).

Bonus stands at C 3 vs U 4, looks to be going to 4-4 today.

Jpmarn

The battle of the provinces Day 8.

Connaught Athenry 20.0°C Markee 18.3°C
Ulster Ballyhaise 17,8°C Finner 16.9C

As Athenry has the highest temperature of the four stations a point is awarded to Connaught making it C. 4 U. 4

Jpmarn

Markee might be earning the points for Connaught today but won’t be confirmed until tomorrow morning.

waterways

You're right.

Day 9

Connaught Athenry 20.6°C Markee 21.9°C
Ulster Ballyhaise 21.2°C Finner 19.7C

C. 5 U. 4

M.T. Cranium

Also, new MAX of 24.0 at both Oak Park and Phoenix Park yesterday.

Jpmarn

It is great to see that Markee and Finner competing for points for their respective provinces for a change.

The battle of the provinces Day 10.

Connaught Athenry 19.1°C Markee 20.6°C
Ulster Ballyhaise 20.0°C Finner 20.5C

As Markee has the highest temperature of the four stations a point is awarded to Connaught making it C. 6 U. 4.

Markee has bet Finner by just 0.1°C

Jpmarn

The battle of the provinces Day 11.

Connaught Athenry 18.6°C Markee 19.1°C
Ulster Ballyhaise 20.5°C Finner 18.2C

As Ballyhaise has the highest temperature of the four stations a point is awarded to Ulster making it C. 6 U. 5.

Jpmarn

The battle of the provinces Day 12.

Connaught Athenry 18.8°C Markee 16.0°C
Ulster Ballyhaise 17.2°C Finner 15.6C

As Athenry has the highest temperature of the four stations a point is awarded to Connaught making it C. 7 U. 5.

Temperatures not too exciting in these figures with some stations in Munster registering highs of just over 20°C. Looking forward as the battle gets heated up over the weekend with highs of over 25°C forecasted.

Jpmarn

A bit more heat in the battle of the provinces.

The battle of the provinces Day 13.

Connaught Athenry 20.7°C Markee 17.1°C
Ulster Ballyhaise 19.3°C Finner 17.2C

As Athenry has the highest temperature of the four stations a point is awarded to Connaught making it C. 8 U. 5.

Jpmarn

It looks like Connaught is running away with the points as Ulster hasn’t scored in a few days for our bonus question.

The battle of the provinces Day 14.

Connaught Athenry 22.9°C Markee 21.0°C
Ulster Ballyhaise 21.9°C Finner 21.2C

As Athenry has the highest temperature of the four stations a point is awarded to Connaught making it C. 9 U. 5.

New MAX of 24.2°C at Moore Park, Cork followed by 24.1°C at Shannon Airport.

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks ...

IMT on 15.4(4) with this past week warming up to 16.3, 0.9 above normal.

MAX now 24.2, MIN remains 3.6.

PRC now at 33% of normal, the past week still rather dry at 53% (Malin Head above normal).

SUN continues above average, now 123% with the past week 111% (667/600).

Bonus as tracked by JPmarn (thanks) has reached 9-5 C vs U.

Jpmarn

Battle of the Provinces is got pretty heated but it is Ulster to score this time.

The battle of the provinces Day 15.

Connaught Athenry 22.6°C Markee 22.5°C
Ulster Ballyhaise 22.8°C Finner 21.7C

As Ballyhaise has the highest temperature of the four stations a point is awarded to Ulster making it C. 9 U. 6.

New MAX again, 24.5 at Phoenix Park and Mt. Dillon.

Jpmarn

After a fight back from Ulster Markee comes up with the goods to keep Connaught running away just half way through the contest.

The battle of the provinces Day 16.

Connaught Athenry 21.0°C Markee 22.6°C
Ulster Ballyhaise 22.4°C Finner 20.7C

As Markee has the highest temperature of the four stations a point is awarded to Connaught making it C. 10 U. 6.

The battle takes on a new phase as more unsettled weather sets in for the next few days. It may throw up some interesting figures.

Jpmarn

For the first time this month it is Finner Camp that scores.

The battle of the provinces Day 17.

Connaught Athenry 18.9°C Markee 18.5°C
Ulster Ballyhaise 18.3°C Finner 19.7C

As Finner has the highest temperature of the four stations a point is awarded to Ulster making it C. 10 U. 7.

With unsettled weather has arrived the wettest place is Newport Co. Mayo 19.6mm.