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July 2019 Boards weather forecast contest

  • 28-06-2019 6:46pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,209 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    1. Predict the IMT, mean temperature at five locations in Ireland (Claremorris, Casement, Mullingar, Oak Park, Shannon) for July, 2019. The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 15.3 deg C.

    2. Predict the MAX temperature at any regularly reporting Met-E station as reported in the Monthly Summary (and daily in the "yesterday's weather" section of their website), during July.

    3. Predict the MIN temperature during July (see 2 above for overview).

    4. Predict the PRC (rainfall at this time of year) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at eleven locations, namely Ballyhaise, Cork, Malin Head, Belmullet, Cork, Johnstown Castle, and the five locations for the IMT (section 1 above), during July.

    5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at six locations, Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork and Valentia, during July.

    6. BONUS -- Continuing the Battle of the Provinces, read carefully ... this time it will be Connacht vs Ulster, same general idea as June but now two locations take part for each province, and the winner is the highest of all four. If two tie then the other two are used to break the tie. If that fails then the warmest overnight low among them determines the winner. And if that fails, the win goes to the holder of the previous day. The locations going into battle will be Athenry and Markree for Connacht and Finner and Ballyhaise for Ulster. They have identical July mean temperatures (Athenry and Ballyhaise 15.5, and Markree, Finner 15.1). So I will set normal at 18-13 for Connacht thinking that the diurnal range might be a bit larger there (so average max may not be identical as is the daily mean).

    You can post your guess for this in any form as long as I can tell which province gets how many wins, but to make it standard go with Connacht wins vs Ulster wins.

    To make sure you're understanding this,

    (a) your guesses must total 31, e.g., 20-11, 29-2, 14-17 etc.

    (b) winner is highest max of all four, not an average of the two vs the other average.

    (c) It's Athenry/Markree vs Ballyhaise/Finner -- anywhere else in the relevant provinces not applicable to the contest (sorry Mountdillon).

    (z) Connacht is whereas Ulster ... okay you all know this part ... :D

    =========================================

    Here's my predictions and those of NormaL to get us started ...

    MTC ______ 15.8 _ 29.0 _ 3.5 _ 085 _ 115 ____ 19-12 (C vs U)

    NormaL ___ 15.3 _ 27.5 _ 4.0 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 18-13 (C vs U)

    =========================================

    Late penalties will be 1 point for every four hours after deadline of 0300h Monday 1st of July to 1500h 2nd (at that time, -9 pts) then 1 additional point for every hour late after that.

    Good luck, have fun, the August bonus will be the June winner vs the July winner for the all-Ireland title, may allow in three per province that time.


«13

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen ______ 15.3 _ 25.7 _ 3.2 _ 090 _ 100 ____ 16-15 (C vs U)

    Might edit the IMT on last day but I'm feeling very pessimistic right now about July.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    pauldry______ 16.2_ 27.0 _ 3.1 _ 109_ 99____ 17-14 connacht


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,715 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    Bsal ___ 15.9 _ 28.6 _ 3.5 _ 90 _ 110 ____ 19-12 (C vs U)


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,564 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    Rikand ___ 16.0 ___ 29.0 ___ 3.0 ___ 90 ___ 120 ___ 21-10 Connacht


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,569 ✭✭✭ 200motels


    200motels ___16.3. 28.6. 3.5. 108. 98. 17-14 connacht


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  • Registered Users Posts: 165 ✭✭ sunflower3


    Sunflower3___ 16.2 ___ 28.2 ___ 4.0 ___ 90 ___ 90 ___ 19-12 Connacht


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,861 ✭✭✭ Artane2002


    Artane2002 ______ 16.1 _ 26.3 _ 3.8 _ 090 _ 110 ____ 20-11 (C vs U)


  • Registered Users Posts: 458 ✭✭ dasa29


    Dasa29 ______ 15.1 _ 27.5 _ 2.5 _ 100 _ 125 ____ 18-13 (C vs U)


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,114 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    DOCARCH ___ 15.9 ___ 28.6 ___ 3.6 ___ 90 ___ 120 ___ 19-12 Connacht


  • Registered Users Posts: 353 ✭✭ YanSno


    YanSno ______ 15.6 _ 28.9 _ 3.5 _ 090 _ 100 ____ 17-14 (C vs U)


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,406 Mod ✭✭✭✭ mickger844posts


    mickger844posts ___16.5_28.1_ 4.5_ 88_108_ 16-15 connacht


  • Registered Users Posts: 360 ✭✭ mrskinner


    MrsKinner._____15.6____28.1____4.0____90____111____18/13


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,997 ✭✭✭ John mac


    johnmac ______ 15.1 _ 28.2 _ 3.0 _ 102 _ 98 ____ 20-11 (C vs U)


  • Registered Users Posts: 351 ✭✭ waterways


    waterways ___ 15.5 _ 28.7 _ 3.4 _ 68 _ 122 ____ 14-17


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Jpmarn ___ 16.3 _ 29.2 _ 4.9 _ 55 _ 135 ____ 16-15 (C vs U)

    Let the battle of the provinces begin.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,746 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Joe Public___ 15.5 _ 27.9 _ 2.5 _ 65 _ 120 ____ 21-10 (C v U)


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,773 ✭✭✭ dacogawa


    Dacogawa______ 16.2_ 29.8 _ 3.1 _ 75_ 105___ 24-07 (C vs U)


  • Registered Users Posts: 623 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Tae laidir ___ 15.7 _ 27.3 _ 3.6 _ 84 _ 107 ____ 18-13


  • Registered Users Posts: 748 ✭✭✭ adam240610


    Adam240610__ 15.6__27.6__3.1__73__113__19-12 (C v U)


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,894 ✭✭✭ BLIZZARD7


    BLIZZARD7______ 15.2 _ 29.0 _ 3.0 _ 110 _ 100 ____ 17-14 (C vs U)


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  • Registered Users Posts: 17,665 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    JCXBXC ______ 15.7_ 27.3 _ 2.9 _ 110 _ 125 ____ 19-12 (C vs U)


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,116 ✭✭✭ Melanchthon


    mickger844posts ___16.5_28.1_ 4.5_ 88_108_ 16-15 connacht

    _


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,764 ✭✭✭ rameire


    Rameire ___ 15.4 ___ 28.9 ___ 3.0 ___ 98 ___ 115 ___ 23-8 Connacht


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Just looking into yesterday's weather before the battle of the provinces begins just as a preview.
    Connaught Athenry 16.4°C Markee 18.0°C
    Ulster Ballyhaise 18.5°C Finner 16.5C
    If yesterday was in the contest Ulster would have earned a point but it doesn’t count as we have to wait until tomorrow to judge which province will score.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,180 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    Gonzo ______ 15.2 _ 25.9 _ 2.7 _ 085 _ 95 ____ 17-14 (C vs U)


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,209 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Table of forecasts for July 2019


    FORECASTER ____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ C vs U


    mickger844posts _________ 16.5 _ 28.1 _ 4.5 _ 088 _ 108 ____ 16-15

    Jpmarn _________________16.3 _ 29.2 _ 4.9 _ 055 _ 135 ____ 16-15

    200motels ______________ 16.3 _ 28.6 _ 3.5 _ 108 _ 098 ____ 17-14

    Dacogawa ______________ 16.2 _ 29.8 _ 3.1 _ 075 _ 105 ____ 24-07

    Sunflower3 _____________ 16.2 _ 28.2 _ 4.0 _ 090 _ 090 ____ 19-12

    pauldry ________________ 16.2 _ 27.0 _ 3.1 _ 109 _ 099 ____ 17-14

    Artane2002 _____________16.1 _ 26.3 _ 3.8 _ 090 _ 110 ____ 20-11

    Rikand _________________16.0 _ 29.0 _ 3.0 _ 090 _ 120 ____ 21-10

    Kindred Spirit (-5) _______ 16.0 _ 28.0 _ 3.0 _ 090 _ 120 ____ 19-12

    Bsal ___________________15.9 _ 28.6 _ 3.5 _ 090 _ 110 ____ 19-12

    DOCARCH ______________ 15.9 _ 28.6 _ 3.6 _ 090 _ 120 ____ 19-12

    M.T. Cranium ____________15.8 _ 29.0 _ 3.5 _ 085 _ 115 ____ 19-12


    ____ Con Sensus _________15.7 _ 28.2 _ 3.2 _ 090 _ 110 ____ 19-12


    JCXBXC __ (-2) __________ 15.7 _ 27.3 _ 2.9 _ 110 _ 125 ____ 19-12

    Tae laidir _______________ 15.7 _ 27.3 _ 3.6 _ 084 _ 107 ____ 18-13

    YanSno _________________15.6 _ 28.9 _ 3.5 _ 090 _ 100 ____ 17-14

    MrSkinner _______________15.6 _ 28.1 _ 4.0 _ 090 _ 111 ____ 18-13

    Adam240610 ____________ 15.6 _ 27.6 _ 3.1 _ 073 _ 113 ____ 19-12

    waterways ______________ 15.5 _ 28.7 _ 3.4 _ 068 _ 122 ____ 14-17

    Joe Public _______________15.5 _ 27.9 _ 2.5 _ 065 _ 120 ____ 21-10

    Rameire __(-3) __________ 15.4 _ 28.9 _ 3.0 _ 098 _ 115 ____ 23 - 8


    ___ NormaL ____________ 15.3 _ 27.5 _ 4.0 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 18-13


    sryanbruen _____________ 15.3 _ 25.7 _ 3.2 _ 090 _ 100 ____ 16-15

    BLIZZARD7 _____________ 15.2 _ 29.0 _ 3.0 _ 110 _ 100 ____ 17-14

    Gonzo ___ (-3) __________ 15.2 _ 25.9 _ 2.7 _ 085 _ 095 ____ 17-14

    johnmac ________________15.1 _ 28.2 _ 3.0 _ 102 _ 098 ____ 20-11

    Dasa29 ________________ 15.1 _ 27.5 _ 2.5 _ 100 _ 125 ____ 18-13

    _______________________________________________________________

    Con Sensus (median) is 13th ranked of 25 values.

    The choices for Connacht vs Ulster have the following profile:

    24 - 7 ______________ 1
    23 - 8 ______________ 1
    22 - 9 ______________ 0
    21-10 ______________ 2
    20-11 ______________ 2
    19-12 ______________ 7
    18-13 ______________ 3
    17-14 ______________ 5
    16-15 ______________ 3
    15-16 ______________ 0
    14-17 ______________ 1

    Scoring will be 10 minus one for each category missed, and if the outcome lies outside the range, the closest value will be used (e.g., outcome 25-6, then 24-7 will score 10, 23-8 will score 9, etc).

    Only one brave soul has chosen Ulster to win but eight foresee a closer battle than our most popular choice, 19-12.


  • Registered Users Posts: 318 ✭✭ kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit ___ 16.00 ___ 28.0 ___ 3.00 ___ 90 ___ 120 ___ 19-12


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    The battle of the provinces Day 1.

    Connaught Athenry 19.0°C Markee 16.2°C
    Ulster Ballyhaise 17.3°C Finner 15.8C

    As Athenry has the highest temperature of the four stations it is 1-0 to Connaught.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,209 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    (mick's forecast) followed by

    _

    Curious as to significance of this post.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    The battle of the provinces Day 2.

    Connaught Athenry 17.0°C Markee 17.1°C
    Ulster Ballyhaise 17.3°C Finner 15.9C

    As Ballyhaise has the highest temperature of the four stations a point is awarded to Ulster making it C. 1 U. 1.


    Posters may copy and paste this format and edit it to contain the correct temperatures and result for the particular day.


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