Property Market 2020

bluelamp · 07-04-2020 6:48pm

Ap2020 wrote: »

Many of the workers here from Brazil are here on study visas, they will not have any access to social welfare while on a study visa where they are a non EEA national.

While I agree a few are likely to leave - let's be honest here, when the rental sector was on its knees last time round, the government were actively turning a blind eye to the Brazilians and their English language schools, to keep accomodation filled.

Everybody (and the government) knew the English language schools were just a shady way of getting a 20 hour work visa. It's only when we started running short on rental property that they started cracking down.

If things do take a serious turn in the rental sector, the government are going to turn a blind eye again to prevent making things worse.

Dont underestimate how many Brazilians live in Dublin city centre, probably half are illegal and have no intention of ever leaving.

Compared to a lot of other nationalities, I think everyone agrees they would rather have tens of thousands of Brazilians around rather than tens of thousands of certain other nationalities who dont integrate like the Brazilians do.

I've never heard many complaints about them, in comparison to other minority nationalities in Ireland. They dont cause trouble really.

IndieRoar111 · 07-04-2020 7:21pm

After basically walking anyway from a sale at a decent reduction of the asking price over 3 weeks ago, the EA phoned us today saying the seller is willing to play ball at 10k lower than the initial reduced bid. We are still not going for it, will wait and see how the markets performs over the next 6-18 months.

IndieRoar111 · 07-04-2020 7:23pm

To provide some value to the thread, a couple my husband knows bid on a house in D7 last week at 50k under asking and the offer was accepted. House was within the 375-400k range.

Tilikum17 · 07-04-2020 7:23pm

IndieRoar111 wrote: »

After basically walking anyway from a sale at a decent reduction of the asking price over 3 weeks ago, the EA phoned us today saying the seller is willing to play ball at 10k lower than the initial reduced bid. We are still not going for it, will wait and see how the markets performs over the next 6-18 months.

Wow. That’s mad. Where selling & buying at the min. We haven’t been asked to reduce our asking price.

IndieRoar111 · 07-04-2020 7:26pm

dor843088 wrote: »

So a fall of 15k on a 300k house ? That's optimistic for sure. Think theres sale agreed folk who have already negotiated more than that off previously agreed figures .

15k is very conservative, we know of buyers who have negotiated higher reductions this month and we ain't seen nothing yet!

Queasy Tadpole · 07-04-2020 7:27pm

IndieRoar111 wrote: »

To provide some value to the thread, a couple my husband knows bid on a house in D7 last week at 50k under asking and the offer was accepted. House was within the 375-400k range.

Holy jayzus. :eek:

07-04-2020 8:01pm

IndieRoar111 wrote: »

To provide some value to the thread, a couple my husband knows bid on a house in D7 last week at 50k under asking and the offer was accepted. House was within the 375-400k range.

I'm looking in Dublin 7 around this price range.
Does the house need much work?
Most of the houses I am looking at need 60-80k work.

TheSheriff · 07-04-2020 8:07pm

Can also add to this.

We have pulled out of all properties we've been bidding on.

One EA kept following up as all other bidders have clearly fallen off a cliff.

We had bid asking initially and were prepared to go higher by potentially another 5-10%; after some negotiating we've managed to get them down 20k from asking (closer to 6%).

Have some thinking to do to decide if we pull the trigger......

ebayissues · 07-04-2020 9:01pm

TheSheriff wrote: »

Can also add to this.

We have pulled out of all properties we've been bidding on.

One EA kept following up as all other bidders have clearly fallen off a cliff.

We had bid asking initially and were prepared to go higher by potentially another 5-10%; after some negotiating we've managed to get them down 20k from asking (closer to 6%).

Have some thinking to do to decide if we pull the trigger......

6% is not bad. Loads to think about. If you can get more go for it.

Are you in stable employment? Will you get a mortgage in 12/18 months time? Where you're renting is there a possibiity of owner sayin they want their house back? Will property prices come down 10% or more within 12/18 months?

JamesMason · 07-04-2020 9:29pm

voluntary wrote: »

My bet for residential properties in dublin 12 months from now:

- Affordable housing < 250k 10% drop
- around 300k 15% drop
- over 400k 20% drop

My bet/hope:
Operators with 3 bed semis converted into 4 Airbnb "units", and bunkbed/corridor bedroom Petri dish hovels, to **** themselves underwater.

davedub2015 · 07-04-2020 9:37pm

IndieRoar111 wrote: »

After basically walking anyway from a sale at a decent reduction of the asking price over 3 weeks ago, the EA phoned us today saying the seller is willing to play ball at 10k lower than the initial reduced bid. We are still not going for it, will wait and see how the markets performs over the next 6-18 months.

Where abouts was this?

davedub2015 · 07-04-2020 9:41pm

IndieRoar111 wrote: »

15k is very conservative, we know of buyers who have negotiated higher reductions this month and we ain't seen nothing yet!

Havent heard many reductions in dublin? Sitting on contracts now and going to try knock a few bob off in a few weeks. Think the longer I leave it the better chance we could have

Kurtosis · 07-04-2020 9:51pm

davedub2015 wrote: »

Havent heard many reductions in dublin? Sitting on contracts now and going to try knock a few bob off in a few weeks. Think the longer I leave it the better chance we could have

Was going to say the same.

Would be interested to hear how buyers who were sale agreed had gotten on with trying to negotiate a reduction.

GreeBo · 07-04-2020 9:59pm

TheSheriff wrote: »

Can also add to this.

We have pulled out of all properties we've been bidding on.

One EA kept following up as all other bidders have clearly fallen off a cliff.

We had bid asking initially and were prepared to go higher by potentially another 5-10%; after some negotiating we've managed to get them down 20k from asking (closer to 6%).

Have some thinking to do to decide if we pull the trigger......

How many properties were you bidding on at the same time?

To those who think it's all doom and gloom and that jobs and businesses will be irrecoverably lost, why do you think that a new business won't open in place of the old, assuming the old was profitable prior to the pandemic?

If your fears are true then there is a killing to be made by anyone with money by simply reopening closed businesses and hiring all the staff back... Which makes no sense.

awec · 07-04-2020 10:00pm

IndieRoar111 wrote: »

After basically walking anyway from a sale at a decent reduction of the asking price over 3 weeks ago, the EA phoned us today saying the seller is willing to play ball at 10k lower than the initial reduced bid. We are still not going for it, will wait and see how the markets performs over the next 6-18 months.

You're trying to tell us that your vendor drove their own price down? This is not how it works IndieRoar, vendors don't come back with lower offers than what you offered. This is definitely another one of those things that exists only in your head.

IndieRoar111 wrote: »

To provide some value to the thread, a couple my husband knows bid on a house in D7 last week at 50k under asking and the offer was accepted. House was within the 375-400k range.

The guy I met in Lidl yesterday was telling me that his wife's best friend's cousin paid 50k over asking just yesterday for a 1 bed in Jobstown.

This couple doesn't exist.

IndieRoar111 wrote: »

15k is very conservative, we know of buyers who have negotiated higher reductions this month and we ain't seen nothing yet!

Of course you do.

MrMusician18 · 07-04-2020 10:02pm

GreeBo wrote: »

How many properties were you bidding on at the same time?

To those who think it's all doom and gloom and that jobs and businesses will be irrecoverably lost, why do you think that a new business won't open in place of the old, assuming the old was profitable prior to the pandemic?

If your fears are true then there is a killing to be made by anyone with money by simply reopening closed businesses and hiring all the staff back... Which makes no sense.

Because it takes capital to open businesses. The economy will come back, but no one knows how bad the damage will be and the healing time.

Zenify · 07-04-2020 10:10pm

GreeBo wrote: »

To those who think it's all doom and gloom and that jobs and businesses will be irrecoverably lost, why do you think that a new business won't open in place of the old, assuming the old was profitable prior to the pandemic?

Because the ESRI and many others said so. They kinda know what they are talking about.

Gumbo · 07-04-2020 10:34pm

IndieRoar111 wrote: »

After basically walking anyway from a sale at a decent reduction of the asking price over 3 weeks ago, the EA phoned us today saying the seller is willing to play ball at 10k lower than the initial reduced bid. We are still not going for it, will wait and see how the markets performs over the next 6-18 months.

That’s mad that one minute your need a house so are at viewings and the next, you can wait 18 months.

Dwarf.Shortage · 07-04-2020 11:06pm

Only starting to save for a deposit, living at home and thankfully a decent job that's reasonably Covidproof so I reckon I could be looking to buy in 16-18 months.

In terms of where the market is then my best judgement is it won't be down hugely given demand but if it's true banks are no longer offering exemptions that alone will change the dynamic. It will compress more and more people into that 275-350 space and maybe keep this segment strong while weakening the slightly more expensive units.

If the economy doesn't re-emerge well from Covid we could well see substantial falls but people in this thread saying things like "there's no way it goes down more than 10%" or "You're mad if you don't think prices are going to fall a quarter" are clearly pulling figures out of their árses because there's no precedent for this. Nobody knows with any confidence so stop pretending you do because conversely pretending you know what you're talking about just proves you don't know what you're talking about.

As JP Morgan said to someone who asked him what the market was going to do next, "it's going to fluctuate".

Marius34 · 07-04-2020 11:41pm

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

Nobody knows with any confidence so stop pretending you do because conversely pretending you know what you're talking about just proves you don't know what you're talking about.

As JP Morgan said to someone who asked him what the market was going to do next, "it's going to fluctuate".

While you are right that nobody knows with a confidence. But as investing in stocks for the last 18 years, and following Property market all that time. I can say from experience, its way easier to predict property market , GDP, unemployment and etc.., in comparison to stocks or currency. I would say that you can not predict stock market for short term, as any minor news can have swing in price within a minute, but you do can predict property market, although not with certainty, as things like for example new banking regulation rules can make a big difference..
Property is very illiquid when compared to stocks. There are limited buyers and sellers for each unit, thus creating enough time to recognize when things are starting to go one way or another.

Dwarf.Shortage · 07-04-2020 11:46pm

Marius34 wrote: »

While you are right that nobody knows with a confidence. But as investing in stocks for the last 18 years, and following Property market. I can say from experience, its way easier to predict property market, in comparison to stocks or currency. I would say that you can not predict stock market for short term, as any minor news can have swing price within a minute, but you do can predict property market, although not with certainty, as things like for example new banking regulation rules can make a big difference..
Property is very illiquid when compared to stocks. There are limited buyers and sellers for each unit, thus creating enough time to recognize when things are starting to go one way or another.

And in this particular situation nobody has any idea what this crisis is going to do to the economy and as a result the buyer side of the market, none whatsoever.

guyfawkes5 · 07-04-2020 11:48pm

You're correct in the obvious that no-one knows the future in certainty, but we can use evidence drawn from experts and observing what has happened before to make educated guesses at what we believe will happen and compare reasoning.

Dwarf.Shortage · 07-04-2020 11:50pm

guyfawkes5 wrote: »

You're correct in the obvious that no-one knows the future in certainty, but we can use evidence drawn from experts and observing what has happened before to make educated guesses at what we believe will happen and compare reasoning.

What happened the property market after the last global pandemic during which we put the economy into an induced coma? and you don't get to know how long the coma lasts yet.

There is no what happened before for this.

guyfawkes5 · 07-04-2020 11:59pm

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

What happened the property market after the last global pandemic during which we put the economy into an induced coma? and you don't get to know how long the coma lasts yet.

There is no what happened before for this.

How the 1918 Spanish flu effected different cities in the United States is an interesting example of how social distancing policies can effect the pandemic and economies as each state had different policies on how to deal with it - St Louis and Philadelphia are usually cited as opposing examples here if you care to search for it.

We can also see how the former epicentre of the pandemic is handling its economic recovery in real time - the Financial Times has an interesting piece on Wuhan economic activity compared to this time last year, including property sales.

There is definitely uncertainty there, as is obvious, but we have the knowledge to make reasonable guesses as to what we think will happen and this is not baseless.

Dwarf.Shortage · 08-04-2020 12:12am

guyfawkes5 wrote: »

How the 1918 Spanish flu effected different cities in the United States is an interesting example of how social distancing policies can effect the pandemic and economies as each state had different policies on how to deal with it - St Louis and Philadelphia are usually cited as opposing examples here if you care to search for it.

We can also see how the former epicentre of the pandemic is handling its economic recovery in real time - the Financial Times has an interesting piece on Wuhan economic activity compared to this time last year, including property sales.

There is definitely uncertainty there, as is obvious, but we have the knowledge to make reasonable guesses as to what we think will happen and this is not baseless.

Half of Spanish Flu victims were between 20-40 and society wide property ownership was much lower than it is today. Covid seems to be fairly selective in terms of age and older people are, generally speaking, homeowners. The entire supply side dynamic is not comparable at all.

On the demand side the Spanish Flu is 100 years ago, far more people still working the land where social distancing is much easier than office working. Among a million other things it's too late to start into typing.

I would have serious question marks over how relevant the experience after Spanish flu is to this tbh.

JimmyVik · 08-04-2020 8:30am

mcbert wrote: »

I'm not going to pick the facts that suit me and ignore the ones that don't, here at least, so without providing any proof, I'm expecting some disappointment here in some months when a combination of 1) prices don't drop as far as expected, 2) if they do drop, they may not for that long, 3) if prices drop, availability may reduce, so many still won't find their dream home, 4) even if dream home found at affordable price, credit may be less available.

Im going with Mcbert on this. I feel exactly the same

Marius34 · 08-04-2020 8:38am

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

And in this particular situation nobody has any idea what this crisis is going to do to the economy and as a result the buyer side of the market, none whatsoever.

You do can have some estimate on the economy in short/medium term. It will negatively impact property price, GDP, Unemployment etc. at least in short term.
You can not say the same about the future of stocks, as stocks value gets calculated in, all the expected impact, within minutes.

voluntary · 08-04-2020 8:44am

JamesMason wrote: »

My bet/hope:
Operators with 3 bed semis converted into 4 Airbnb "units", and bunkbed/corridor bedroom Petri dish hovels, to **** themselves underwater.

Envy is one of the Seven deadly sins.

Reversal · 08-04-2020 8:48am

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

And in this particular situation nobody has any idea what this crisis is going to do to the economy and as a result the buyer side of the market, none whatsoever.

Laughable.

08-04-2020 8:58am

GreeBo wrote: »

.........

If your fears are true then there is a killing to be made by anyone with money by simply reopening closed businesses and hiring all the staff back... Which makes no sense.

Cashflow.

I know a lad who has a business supplying wine to mainly restaurants and hotels. He doesn't (dunno why) supply off licences. He reckons he quite likely may not be able to reopen. Employs 20/30 people.

Loads of folk with money can't run businesses to be fair. Wine merchants know SFA about landscaping and landscapers know SFA about running a gym. If you need to employ expertise to run, manage and supply industry expertise you might find the margin is minimal so there's little reward for the risk.

Bigger operators might well take over the order books of smaller operators that can't get back up and running for whatever reasons. Taking over the orders could be by chance, by agreement or by cold calling.

I can't explain the specifics but this might be true and it might not just be pubs....... Coronavirus: Publican groups expect some bars will never reopen
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus-publican-groups-expect-some-bars-will-never-reopen-1.4203749

The Covid payments are ok ish for workers, for many self employed folk who previously drew large salaries from their businesses after ploughing in many cases their life into their companies the help simply isn't there. Which is fair enough in the greater scheme of things.

Forced closure of a business can be very dehabilitating, reopening might not be as simple as a normal Monday morning once this is all over.

Cuddlesworth · 08-04-2020 9:13am

Augeo wrote: »

Cashflow.

Created by financial commitments. Rent is still due. Rates to be paid on the premises. Electricity. Or fixed price contracts, like x kegs per month at x price.

Lots of businesses don't really make much money. Once you drop revenue by a 1 to 2 months, while still having bills to pay, by the end of it they are probably bankrupt. I can think of a handful of businesses that I know personally who are not going to reopen.

hometruths · 08-04-2020 9:25am

I get that nobody knows whats going to happen and I'm no expert but even to a layman it seems plausible that higher property prices in Dublin are function of rental yield and demand:

i.e scarcity of properties to rent pushes rents up, which makes rental yields more attractive to investors and owner occupiers as mortgages are cheaper than rents. Hence demand for property rises, and prices rise.

It would follow that if rents fall, prices will fall too.

The most likely consequence of the coronavirus is that rents will fall because:

a) the arse will fall out the airbnb market - bookings have fallen of a cliff, and a lack of tourists for at least the next three months will see most of these properties offered for longer term lets = increased rental supply.

b) in the unlikely event that supply and demand does not force the hand of most of the airbnb landlords, whatever flavour of government we have after the dust settles will clamp down on the airbnb rules.

c) Increased supply of properties to rent will coincide with some level of decreased demand due to departing foreign casual workers and students etc. In the short term those who have left are unlikely to be replaced with a fresh influx.

This increased supply is likely to come online during and immediately after the lockdown, leading to a flood of availability of rental properties, leading to a flood of headlines about falling rents and the impact this might have on house prices.

The flood of headlines and news stories will lead to the following:

Cash rich investors who might otherwise have bought this year chasing a 6% or whatever yield will wait and see if the prices fall to the level that offers their target yield - decreased demand.

Investors who are not so cash rich, paying mortgages and worried about further falls, will try and get out of the market sooner rather than later - increased supply of stock for sale.

Renters who had planned to buy this year will weigh up cheaper rents vs possibility of further falls and decide to wait and see - decreased fresh demand.

Sellers will hold out for the price they think their property is worth, listings will linger with incremental small price decreases. Each decrease will reinforce the idea the potential buyers belief that it is better to wait.

The only properties that go sale agreed will be from forced sellers who have to sell due to their circumstances. These will be heavily discounted, appearing on the PPR thus putting further downward pressure on the live asking prices.

In the short term property prices will inevitably go down.

I'll reiterate I am no expert but all of the above seems likely, the only question is how long it lasts and by how much prices drop before they bounce again as they surely will.

JamesMason · 08-04-2020 10:56am

voluntary wrote: »

Envy is one of the Seven deadly sins.

So is greed.

Dwarf.Shortage · 08-04-2020 10:59am

Reversal wrote: »

Laughable.

When will restrictions on movement be lifted and what will the impact on unemployment be in the couple of years after the restrictions are lifted?

Cuddlesworth · 08-04-2020 11:21am

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

When will restrictions on movement be lifted and what will the impact on unemployment be in the couple of years after the restrictions are lifted?

Who knows, we have never seen anything like this. It's fair to say consumer confidence isn't going to come out of it unscathed, which means less spending and more saving.

08-04-2020 11:26am

Loads of businesses in the heart of Dublin rely on both tourists and office workers for the vast majority of their business.

Tourists I doubt will flock back in summer 2020 as normal.

And I think a degree of WFH going forward will have a not insignificant effect on footfall in Dublin and other cities for the remainder of 2020 and likely beyond.

I do think we'll have a new normal that will be quite different to what came before.

Hopefully there will be positives also, less cars in the city centre perhaps, more cycling ..... less tourists isn't without benefit to local housing too if AirB&Bs enter the housing stock.

Cuddlesworth · 08-04-2020 11:35am

About WFH, I know facilities in the company's I support are now pushing the question up the chain, why are we paying this much money for office space globally when the company can clearly function without it.

LuckyLloyd · 08-04-2020 11:48am

The big thing will be business travel. You can make the argument that co location of teams is beneficial; but the big elephant in the room is going to be the massive business expenditure on travel; when that money can be invested into connectivity tools and fully kitted meeting rooms instead.

08-04-2020 12:00pm

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

About WFH, I know facilities in the company's I support are now pushing the question up the chain, why are we paying this much money for office space globally when the company can clearly function without it.

All the big boys will look at it, and indeed were in many cases doing so anyway.
Small crowds that like micro managing will prefer teams back in house asap, but that's grand for them too of course.

08-04-2020 12:03pm

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

The big thing will be business travel. ..........

Yeah, I did some work for a crowd once. Had to go to Texas to do a week's testing /inspection before they shipped stuff to the plant here.
They sent me over for a meet and greet / quick look at the stuff a few weeks prior to the test week. Madness.

fliball123 · 08-04-2020 12:03pm

Augeo wrote: »

All the big boys will look at it, and indeed were in many cases doing so anyway.
Small crowds that like micro managing will prefer teams back in house asap, but that's grand for them too of course.

I think it will be a generational thing my kids will probably be working from home, work / log and web activity can be monitored to make sure the employee isnt sitting there watching porn all day and if the employee gets the work done who cares how long it takes them to do it. More people will be working from home after this

GreeBo · 08-04-2020 12:09pm

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Because it takes capital to open businesses. The economy will come back, but no one knows how bad the damage will be and the healing time.

Augeo wrote: »

Cashflow.

I know a lad who has a business supplying wine to mainly restaurants and hotels. He doesn't (dunno why) supply off licences. He reckons he quite likely may not be able to reopen. Employs 20/30 people.

Loads of folk with money can't run businesses to be fair. Wine merchants know SFA about landscaping and landscapers know SFA about running a gym. If you need to employ expertise to run, manage and supply industry expertise you might find the margin is minimal so there's little reward for the risk.

Bigger operators might well take over the order books of smaller operators that can't get back up and running for whatever reasons. Taking over the orders could be by chance, by agreement or by cold calling.

I can't explain the specifics but this might be true and it might not just be pubs....... Coronavirus: Publican groups expect some bars will never reopen
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus-publican-groups-expect-some-bars-will-never-reopen-1.4203749

The Covid payments are ok ish for workers, for many self employed folk who previously drew large salaries from their businesses after ploughing in many cases their life into their companies the help simply isn't there. Which is fair enough in the greater scheme of things.

Forced closure of a business can be very dehabilitating, reopening might not be as simple as a normal Monday morning once this is all over.

I'm not saying the same owner reopens the same business, but there are plenty of people who have lots of cash, or at worst can get a loan from the bank.

The demand for these business wont just evaporate over night, I dont see why people are assuming it will?

Mic 1972 · 08-04-2020 12:39pm

Cyrus wrote: »

between 2003 and 2019 only one year had fewer sales than 2013, thats a fact. so the market wasnt moving very fast.

You went from saying that very few sales happened in 2013 to saying that 2013 had the lowest amount of sales. These are two completely different things
2013 was a very busy year for sales and the number of properties on the market was massive, that supplies dried up pretty quickly as soon as banks started lending money to everyone

Claw Hammer · 08-04-2020 12:45pm

GreeBo wrote: »

I'm not saying the same owner reopens the same business, but there are plenty of people who have lots of cash, or at worst can get a loan from the bank.

The demand for these business wont just evaporate over night, I dont see why people are assuming it will?

Will the banks be lending money for business purposes after this? How many restaurants will re-open?Of those, how many will achieve their previous level of sales.
There will be a folk memory of social distancing lingering long after the lockdown ends. People will not want to pack themselves into a room with strangers as before. Restaurants may have to create more space between tables. Add that to the fact that restaurant sales are one of the first things to decline in a recession. It is mostly discretionary spending and is generally one of the easiest for people to cut back on.

08-04-2020 12:51pm

Augeo wrote: »

............

Bigger operators might well take over the order books of smaller operators that can't get back up and running for whatever reasons. Taking over the orders could be by chance, by agreement or by cold calling.
..............

Forced closure of a business can be very dehabilitating, reopening might not be as simple as a normal Monday morning once this is all over.

GreeBo wrote: »

I'm not saying the same owner reopens the same business, but there are plenty of people who have lots of cash, or at worst can get a loan from the bank.

The demand for these business wont just evaporate over night, I dont see why people are assuming it will?

I'm not suggesting the demand goes away, someone will take money, provide the service, sell the goods. It might well be a surviving business rival in many cases.

Cyrus · 08-04-2020 12:52pm

Mic 1972 wrote: »

You went from saying that very few sales happened in 2013 to saying that 2013 had the lowest amount of sales. These are two completely different things
2013 was a very busy year for sales and the number of properties on the market was massive, that supplies dried up pretty quickly as soon as banks started lending money to everyone

er what, they are the same thing.

2013 was patently not a very busy year for sales compared to other 16 years around it.

beauf · 08-04-2020 2:08pm

schmittel wrote: »

I get that nobody knows whats going to happen and I'm no expert but even to a layman it seems plausible that higher property prices in Dublin are function of rental yield and demand: .....

....
I'll reiterate I am no expert but all of the above seems likely, the only question is how long it lasts and by how much prices drop before they bounce again as they surely will.

I agree with your summary, if not the specifics.

There are few more aspects to this.

AirBnB is a small % of the overall market, its highly concentrated in certain areas. Its impact is constantly over stated. It may have a much bigger effect in concentrated locations, only. If the Govt announces a crackdown on them, why would it be any more effective than their previous crackdowns.

There are different types of property and occupiers in different locations. Which is why you don't have massive concentrations of student accommodation in the middle of the country and you don't have vast housing estates in the middle of the city. There are also wide regional differences. So whats happens in one place may not be mirrored in another.

You can't sell if there's no one buying, and you can't buy if there no one selling. If someone is not paying rent, they won't move. The is a cost in wear and tear and maintenance of keeping a place occupied. Far less if its empty. If the odds of not getting any rent are high, and you have no means to deal with a non paying or over-holding tenant. Some might decided to leave places empty until the business returns, and they can change the rent.

One of the effects of RPZ was that people moved a lot less. If they had low rent they were reluctant to move from it. If people don't move out. People can't move in.

The ability to buy can change. What you can afford now, might be less, later if the rules change, or the banks don't want the risk. Also the supply that is there now, might reduce if building stops and doesn't restart to the same level. So even if you can buy, there may be nothing to buy.

Lot of possibilities.

0gac3yjefb5sv7 · 08-04-2020 2:14pm

With AirBnB, it may temporarily take a hit for a year but it will be back...it's not going to disappear.

fliball123 · 08-04-2020 2:14pm

beauf wrote: »

I agree with your summary, if not the specifics.

There are few more aspects to this.

AirBnB is a small % of the overall market, its highly concentrated in certain areas. Its impact is constantly over stated. It may have a much bigger effect in concentrated locations, only. If the Govt announces a crackdown on them, why would it be any more effective than their previous crackdowns.

There are different types of property and occupiers in different locations. Which is why you don't have massive concentrations of student accommodation in the middle of the country and you don't have vast housing estates in the middle of the city. There are also wide regional differences. So whats happens in one place may not be mirrored in another.

You can't sell if there's no one buying, and you can't buy if there no one selling. If someone is not paying rent, they won't move. The is a cost in wear and tear and maintenance of keeping a place occupied. Far less if its empty. If the odds of not getting any rent are high, and you have no means to deal with a non paying or over-holding tenant. Some might decided to leave places empty until the business returns, and they can change the rent.

One of the effects of RPZ was that people moved a lot less. If they had low rent they were reluctant to move from it. If people don't move out. People can't move in.

The ability to buy can change. What you can afford now, might be less, later if the rules change, or the banks don't want the risk. Also the supply that is there now, might reduce if building stops and doesn't restart to the same level. So even if you can buy, there may be nothing to buy.

Lot of possibilities.

I think I heard the word paralysis used for the property market and its appropriate for how things are now. Supply as we speak is being taken off sites like my home and daft and even with some new properties coming onto the market there are less properties available now than there was 2 weeks ago. Demand will go down due to people not getting lending from the banks and not wanting to risk the chance of their new property going into negative equity. So it will be a stalemate until corona is gone. There will be a tiny fraction of people who have to sell and a tiny fraction of people will want to buy at this time. I cant see 30% drops and think of the lift there will be once we get back to normal. I can see us being back to where we were in about 18 months to 2 years.

beauf · 08-04-2020 2:16pm

Adelyn Late Sportsmanship wrote: »

With AirBnB, it may temporarily take a hit for a year but it will be back...it's not going to disappear.

At some point tourism will return. People talk as if its gone forever.

Property Market 2020

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