Augeo wrote: » Cashflow.
voluntary wrote: » Envy is one of the Seven deadly sins.
Reversal wrote: » Laughable.
Dwarf.Shortage wrote: » When will restrictions on movement be lifted and what will the impact on unemployment be in the couple of years after the restrictions are lifted?
Cuddlesworth wrote: » About WFH, I know facilities in the company's I support are now pushing the question up the chain, why are we paying this much money for office space globally when the company can clearly function without it.
LuckyLloyd wrote: » The big thing will be business travel. ..........
Augeo wrote: » All the big boys will look at it, and indeed were in many cases doing so anyway. Small crowds that like micro managing will prefer teams back in house asap, but that's grand for them too of course.
MrMusician18 wrote: » Because it takes capital to open businesses. The economy will come back, but no one knows how bad the damage will be and the healing time.
Augeo wrote: » Cashflow. I know a lad who has a business supplying wine to mainly restaurants and hotels. He doesn't (dunno why) supply off licences. He reckons he quite likely may not be able to reopen. Employs 20/30 people. Loads of folk with money can't run businesses to be fair. Wine merchants know SFA about landscaping and landscapers know SFA about running a gym. If you need to employ expertise to run, manage and supply industry expertise you might find the margin is minimal so there's little reward for the risk. Bigger operators might well take over the order books of smaller operators that can't get back up and running for whatever reasons. Taking over the orders could be by chance, by agreement or by cold calling. I can't explain the specifics but this might be true and it might not just be pubs....... Coronavirus: Publican groups expect some bars will never reopenhttps://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus-publican-groups-expect-some-bars-will-never-reopen-1.4203749 The Covid payments are ok ish for workers, for many self employed folk who previously drew large salaries from their businesses after ploughing in many cases their life into their companies the help simply isn't there. Which is fair enough in the greater scheme of things. Forced closure of a business can be very dehabilitating, reopening might not be as simple as a normal Monday morning once this is all over.
Cyrus wrote: » between 2003 and 2019 only one year had fewer sales than 2013, thats a fact. so the market wasnt moving very fast.
GreeBo wrote: » I'm not saying the same owner reopens the same business, but there are plenty of people who have lots of cash, or at worst can get a loan from the bank. The demand for these business wont just evaporate over night, I dont see why people are assuming it will?
Augeo wrote: » ............ Bigger operators might well take over the order books of smaller operators that can't get back up and running for whatever reasons. Taking over the orders could be by chance, by agreement or by cold calling. .............. Forced closure of a business can be very dehabilitating, reopening might not be as simple as a normal Monday morning once this is all over.
Mic 1972 wrote: » You went from saying that very few sales happened in 2013 to saying that 2013 had the lowest amount of sales. These are two completely different things 2013 was a very busy year for sales and the number of properties on the market was massive, that supplies dried up pretty quickly as soon as banks started lending money to everyone
schmittel wrote: » I get that nobody knows whats going to happen and I'm no expert but even to a layman it seems plausible that higher property prices in Dublin are function of rental yield and demand: ..... .... I'll reiterate I am no expert but all of the above seems likely, the only question is how long it lasts and by how much prices drop before they bounce again as they surely will.
beauf wrote: » I agree with your summary, if not the specifics. There are few more aspects to this. AirBnB is a small % of the overall market, its highly concentrated in certain areas. Its impact is constantly over stated. It may have a much bigger effect in concentrated locations, only. If the Govt announces a crackdown on them, why would it be any more effective than their previous crackdowns. There are different types of property and occupiers in different locations. Which is why you don't have massive concentrations of student accommodation in the middle of the country and you don't have vast housing estates in the middle of the city. There are also wide regional differences. So whats happens in one place may not be mirrored in another. You can't sell if there's no one buying, and you can't buy if there no one selling. If someone is not paying rent, they won't move. The is a cost in wear and tear and maintenance of keeping a place occupied. Far less if its empty. If the odds of not getting any rent are high, and you have no means to deal with a non paying or over-holding tenant. Some might decided to leave places empty until the business returns, and they can change the rent. One of the effects of RPZ was that people moved a lot less. If they had low rent they were reluctant to move from it. If people don't move out. People can't move in. The ability to buy can change. What you can afford now, might be less, later if the rules change, or the banks don't want the risk. Also the supply that is there now, might reduce if building stops and doesn't restart to the same level. So even if you can buy, there may be nothing to buy. Lot of possibilities.
Adelyn Late Sportsmanship wrote: » With AirBnB, it may temporarily take a hit for a year but it will be back...it's not going to disappear.
fliball123 wrote: » I think I heard the word paralysis used for the property market and its appropriate for how things are now. Supply as we speak is being taken off sites like my home and daft and even with some new properties coming onto the market there are less properties available now than there was 2 weeks ago. Demand will go down due to people not getting lending from the banks and not wanting to risk the chance of their new property going into negative equity. So it will be a stalemate until corona is gone. There will be a tiny fraction of people who have to sell and a tiny fraction of people will want to buy at this time. I cant see 30% drops and think of the lift there will be once we get back to normal. I can see us being back to where we were in about 18 months to 2 years.
beauf wrote: » That was what happened last time. Everything slowed down. But it didn't happen quickly. It took years to fall, and then years to come back. I think supply will continue to be a problem in the long term. The biggest issue is the massive hole thats been blown through public (and private) finances world wide. The scale to which people and business will be effected by this is going to vary enormously. Some people and businesses are having their busiest periods ever, a lot more though are out of work and the business'es are gone. Unlike the last time there is a group/community consideration. Last time banks twisted the knife. This time, they seem to bending over backward to facilitate people. That is very different.
beauf wrote: » At some point tourism will return. People talk as if its gone forever.
fliball123 wrote: » I think it will be a generational thing my kids will probably be working from home, work / log and web activity can be monitored to make sure the employee isnt sitting there watching porn all day and if the employee gets the work done who cares how long it takes them to do it. More people will be working from home after this
Hubertj wrote: » Ryanair will test consumer confidence/behavior once travel restrictions are lifted. Massive sale with cheap seats supported by cheap hotel deals.....
Dwarf.Shortage wrote: What happened the property market after the last global pandemic during which we put the economy into an induced coma? and you don't get to know how long the coma lasts yet.
Cyrus wrote: 2013 was patently not a very busy year for sales compared to other 16 years around it.
Villa05 wrote: » Global pandemic leads to recession which have occurred before During 2012,13,14 There was plenty of stock, banks were lending and prices were substantially below there 2007 peak. This means for those that were financially disciplined, patient and in secure employment there were plenty of much cheaper housing options than there was in 2007. For those buying a doer upper there was plenty of trades people available and materials were much cheaper. Additionally there were grants to refurbish homes and a property tax holiday which unbelievably is still in place today As you can see those that chose to wait and see how the market panned out suffered a lot
Claw Hammer wrote: » It may be difficult to persuade people to travel after the restrictions are lifted. Many people will be willing to crowd into a bus on their way to the airport, queue up in a crowd at the baggage drop-off, queue through security and sit in a crowd at the departure gate before getting onto a full plane? Are people going to be willing to cram into café's and restaurants? Are people going to be willing to take their chances with accommodation? How will they know it is been cleaned fully? A number of airlines will probably be gone bankrupt before the crisis passes. When flights resume, will have to be social distancing on board? How will that impact on prices?
snotboogie wrote: » There will be very little traveling while social distancing remains in place. Once social distancing is lifted people will go back to their old habits withing a few months. The question is when it will be lifted.
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