Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

Saturday, 26 July, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

Astronomy note: New moon occurs late today at 23:42h summer time.

TODAY ... The current round of heavy showers over east Ulster and parts of north Leinster will clear eastward, with a second round set to move into Connacht and west Ulster before mid-day, then progress across the rest of the north during the afternoon. Total rainfalls of 10-20 mm likely there. Further south, showers will be generally brief and some places could remain dry, with amounts more like 2-5 mm for some. This will allow some sunny intervals to develop in the south. Winds will veer around to west then northwest and could become rather gusty in the northwestern counties by afternoon and evening. Highs 21-23 C south, 17-19 C north.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy, showers ending for most but continuing in the far north. Moderate westerly winds. Lows 8-12 C.

SUNDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, isolated showers south, rather frequent showers or periods of light rain in far north. Highs 17-20 C warmer in south.

MONDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, except for overcast skies in the north with light rain possible at times there, morning lows 7-10 C and afternoon highs 19-24 C.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy or sunny south, cloudy north, intervals of coastal fog and drizzle near north coast. Lows 9-12 C and highs 21-24 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Wednesday will continue rather warm and dry, then just slightly cooler late in the week, with an increase in cloud and isolated shower activity. Highs near 24 C at first then 18-22 C. Further on, the following weekend appears somewhat cooler again and unsettled, although this signal has come and gone in the past few weeks and failed to materialize within a week's time, so this is hardly a done deal yet.

My local weather on Friday was mostly cloudy with highs near 21 C.

Monday, 28 July, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cloudy intervals, passing showers more frequent in Connacht and Ulster as some parts of the south will have more sunshine and a dry day. Breezy at times from NW, later backing to WSW with gusts to 60 km/hr. Highs will range from 17 C north to 21 C southeast.

TONIGHT ... Light rain at times in north, some clear intervals near south coast, cloudy elsewhere, lows 8-12 C.

TUESDAY ... Morning cloud and some light rain in parts of the north, followed by a clearing trend, warm with highs reaching 20 C north, 24 C south.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, warm, isolated showers developing mainly in north and west. Lows 8-12 C and highs 21-24 C.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy with some showers and isolated thunderstorms, humid, lows 10-14 C and highs 19-22 C.

FRIDAY ... Showers or periods of rain, lows 11-15 C and highs 18-21 C.

OUTLOOK ... The weekend will be showery with the risk of some heavier rainfalls developing, but eventually August should begin to return to the warm, dry pattern of recent weeks.

My local weather on Sunday was sunny and very warm with a high of 26 C.

Wednesday, 30 July, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Partly cloudy with some decent sunny intervals across the southern and central counties, but a greater chance of showers or an isolated thunderstorm, one round already underway in east Ulster, then later most likely in Connacht and redeveloping into west Ulster. Warm again with highs 21-23 C.

TONIGHT ... Increasing cloud with isolated showers for the north, but some clear intervals in the south, lows 11-15 C.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny intervals, showers developing, risk of thunder in west, highs 20-23 C. Increasingly humid.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy and humid with frequent showers or periods of rain, risk of thunderstorms, lows 12-16 C and highs 18-21 C. Turning somewhat fresher late afternoon west, evening elsewhere, as light southerly winds give way to moderate northwesterlies.

SATURDAY ... Becoming partly cloudy, breezy, some showers but relatively dry for most of the south and west. Lows 11-13 C and highs 18-21 C. (Note that Britain will continue to see heavy showers most of the day as the Friday system above makes slow progress east, some heavy rains are likely in southern England).

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, chance of showers but some locations will remain dry with some sunny intervals for the southeast, lows near 10 C and highs around 19 to 22 C.

MONDAY ... Rain at times with risk of thunder, rather humid with lows near 14 and highs near 21 C. Moderate southerly winds could produce gusts to 50 or 60 km/hr in the Atlantic coastal counties and most of the south.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Earlier on Tuesday, the European model was signalling a thundery outbreak of some significance on Thursday 7th August, still over a week away, but the latest guidance from various global models contains an energy peak between Wednesday 6th and Friday 8th, so something to keep in mind -- nevertheless, a warmer trend seems likely towards mid-August again, which increases the chances that this event could produce heavy thunderstorms, in whatever form it eventually takes. The Monday 4th event has somewhat limited air mass contrast but might still prove to be rather active in west Munster at least. As I mentioned yesterday, I may miss these in "real time" as I'm hoping to be on the road by this weekend.

My local weather is now locked into a scorching warm and dry spell with daily highs near 30 C each day. At least it is cooling down reasonably quickly after sunset.

Friday, 1 August, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, with the odd brighter interval but once the morning rainfall shifts east, only a few sporadic showers or drizzly light rain, misty and probably foggy over some coastal headlands and higher terrain. Highs 16-18 C.

TONIGHT ... Heavy rainfall will move into the south bringing 15-25 mm downpours east of Cork, heaviest around Waterford and Wexford. The earlier light showers will continue over parts of the north, and the heavier rain will slowly move north into the Dublin region before morning. Lows 8-11 C.

SATURDAY ... Heavy rain at times in east Leinster and Ulster, as winds back around from northeast to northwest 40-60 km/hr. There could be some thunder embedded around Meath, Cavan and Monaghan, 15-25 mm further rainfalls in these regions. The heavier showers will end over south Leinster and east Munster, and further west it may be a largely dry day although a secondary band of light rain is probable for Donegal and north Connacht feeding into the midlands but tending to die out there. Highs about 16 C in the east and north to 19 or 20 C in west Munster and Galway.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, a few rather isolated showers, many places dry however, morning lows 8-11 C and afternoon highs 18-21 C.

MONDAY ... Increasing cloud, showers or thunderstorms developing in some western regions, could stay dry in Leinster and east Ulster. Lows 8-12 C and highs 18-22 C.

TUESDAY ... A few showers, risk of a thunderstorm, warm and humid. Lows around 13 C and highs around 22 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Breezy and warm with showers and risk of thunderstorms, guidance on this event is quite mixed at this stage, some potential for severe storms to develop especially in Munster. Lows near 15 C and highs near 24 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Gradual improvement seems to be the general theme of longer range guidance, and the GFS shows definite "heat wave" potential around mid-August. Later next week, into the weekend of 8-9 August, any remnants of newly formed Tropical Storm Bertha could be drifting northeast from the central Atlantic. Far too early to say whether this could even be a minor weather feature for Ireland as it appears a rather weak storm on any charts where it survives this coming weekend in the Caribbean.

At this point, western North America has returned to very hot weather except where some storms popped up in northern Arizona and they had quite a drop in temperature as a result (only 14 C at Flagstaff, Arizona last evening). The eastern half of North America remains close to or slightly below mid-summer normals, meaning 25 C instead of 27-30 C. My local weather was hotter than that on Thursday, and ten degrees above the local normals at 31 C.

UPDATE _ Sat 2 Aug 3 p.m.
_________________________

The areas that have dried out past 2-3 hours just to northwest of Dublin are close to the upper-level low which is drifting northeast and will be over county Down by about midnight, taking this drier zone along in that direction. At the same time, the occlusion running into the secondary surface centre under the upper low (the primary is over the north Irish Sea) will plod north and resume at least moderate rainfall for areas that it covers from Dublin north. On the east coast you can expect to see winds going from east to south, then southwest and west but inland the sequence will be from east to north and northwest then westerly.

The intense looking return flow from west across portions of Laois, Carlow, south Kildare will be dragged northwards and upslope against the Wicklow-Dublin Mountains could create locally heavier rains around the western portions of Dublin but then later this feature will be returning to the east coast without running into that upslope. There may be a slight rainshadow effect east of the hills that will fade out from Bray northwards later. So would expect a further 20-40 mm rain in most of Leinster as the dry centre of the system moves more into east Ulster. This wrap around could then become thundery with some hail embedded. Be alert for thunderstorm development about 4-7 p.m. in the Dublin region then this will slowly shift north during the evening.

The section of the storm now over west Ulster will be held in place for the rest of the day and through most of tonight, and I suspect it may be under-modelled so expect some locally torrential downpours in parts of Donegal, Sligo, Leitrim, Roscommon and eastern Mayo-Galway with 20-40 mm further rainfall there, also in Derry, Tyrone and Fermanagh.

This storm will likely continue for a significant portion of Sunday in most of Ulster and the parts of Leinster and Connacht within about forty miles of Ulster, and the current sharp boundaries may degrade as areas of showers begin to rotate around the more persistent rain bands.

Hello all, just back from a refreshing total break from all things routine and may need a day or so, will check things over between now and 0600h and perhaps put up a brief forecast if there's anything active, or perhaps wait until Tuesday morning to press the restart button. But if you're reading this before sunrise and you have any clear skies, check out the Venus-Jupiter conjunction in the east. We saw it in the desert yesterday morning, gorgeous view there. You'll be seeing it at its closest phase this morning.

Wednesday, 20 August, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

Thanks to 200motels and other readers for providing some forecasts during my recent holiday. -- MTC


TODAY ... Some morning sunshine, then partly to mostly cloudy with mostly dry conditions but a few showers scattered across north and west mainly, moderate northwest winds, highs 15-18 C.

TONIGHT ... Increasing cloud in most regions, some clear intervals in the south where lows could fall as low as 5-7 C, otherwise lows 8-11 C. Some light rain may begin after midnight in the far north.

THURSDAY ... Increasing cloud from the north followed by light rain that may spread about as far south as Galway to Dublin by late afternoon, so a mainly dry day for the south. Highs 14-17 C north to 17-19 C south. Winds backing to southwest ahead of this frontal band, then veering more westerly. The rain will then spread into the south overnight into Friday morning. Most regions will only see about 5 mm of rain with this rather weak system, 10 mm in a few parts of the inland north.

FRIDAY ... Showers, followed by a gradual clearing trend, winds becoming northwest and freshening, morning lows near 10 C and afternoon highs near 16 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy to sunny with lows 6 to 8 C and highs 16 to 18 C. Rain may arrive on the west coast around late afternoon or evening. Light winds. Best sunshine likely to be in Leinster and east Munster.

SUNDAY ... Windy with periods of rain that may become heavy and thundery, southeasterly to southerly gales may develop with gusts to 80-100 km/hr -- especially active for the south coast. There is potential for 20-30 mm rainfalls. Lows near 12 C and highs near 18 C. The strong winds may ease late in the day except in south Leinster, veering westerly with a partial clearance overnight into Monday.

MONDAY ... Warmer and quite humid with showers, possible thunderstorms, lows about 13 C and highs about 19 or 20 C. However, it will turn cooler again across Ulster, Connacht and most of north Leinster, west Munster by mid-day, with temperatures falling off to near 15 C. Some heavier showers with hail, gusty winds to about 70 km/hr developing again near the south coast around late morning or mid-day, this time from southwest to west in direction. Rainfalls generally 10-15 mm but could be heavier in some spots.

TUESDAY ... Further heavy showers likely in eastern counties, lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C, in northeast winds, some clearing by mid-day west, then by later afternoon for eastern counties.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Some clearing Tuesday night, sunny at first Wednesday then clouding over, rain possible again by Thursday morning of next week, with temperatures closer to normal values (18-20 C for daytime highs).

My local weather on Tuesday was cloudy with a few sunny intervals and rather warm with highs near 23 C.

Friday, 22 August, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, isolated showers, more frequent in west and north, amounts only 1-3 mm with moderate NW to N breezes and rather cool highs of 15-17 C.

TONIGHT ... Some clearing, quite cold with lows falling to 5-8 C. A few showers may continue near north and west coasts but most places will be dry, if somewhat misty at times.

SATURDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, a few isolated showers over north Connacht and west Ulster, parts of north Leinster ... a cool start with morning lows only 5 to 8 C then highs reaching 15 to 18 C.

SUNDAY ... Dry to start in most of Ulster and Leinster, drizzle or light rain from early morning in parts of Connacht and Munster, turning to a steady downpour with some heavy and possibly thundery bursts, the rain spreading further north and east to bring 15-30 mm falls. Becoming quite windy around mid-afternoon near the south coast in particular, where gusts from SE to S will reach 80 km/hr or higher. Temperatures edging up from morning lows near 10 to 12 C (except 5-8 C in east Ulster, north Leinster) then reaching 15-18 C later in the day but possibly 18-20 C in parts of west Munster.

MONDAY ... Foggy or misty to start, warmer and quite humid, showers and thunderstorms developing, then turning cooler across the north and west, as winds there become northerly after briefly backing around to northeast. Fresh southerly winds elsewhere will drop off to light except for some strong gusts near thunderstorms. Lows near 13 C and highs 17-19 C although falling off to about 15 C later in the day in north and west. Rainfalls 10-20 mm, risk of spot flooding in parts of the inland southeast.

TUESDAY ... Further showers or light rain likely, with some brief clearing possible, staying rather mild and quite humid, lows near 12 C and highs near 18 C. Winds from northeast may take more of a southeast course by later in the day, skies becoming variable but only brief sunny intervals likely with a weak ridge between systems.

OUTLOOK for WED-THURS calls for further rain at times in a developing south to southwest flow with moderate wind gusts. A stronger system may follow next weekend -- I hope this outlook will change but the early signs are rather unsettled for Friday and Saturday (29th-30th) and quite windy too.

Britain can expect most of these unsettled conditions over the next week to ten days, and Scotland, northern England and Wales will see the most rain, with temperatures returning to somewhat above normal values at times next week. Across the U.S., some very heavy rains from stalled frontal thunderstorms can be expected in the lower Great Lakes including the Chicago region, and some urban flooding may develop. Hot and humid in the southeast. A tropical storm could form at any time now near Puerto Rico or Hispaniola and this may track towards south Florida and either make a landfall there or move into the Gulf of Mexico next week, possibly as a developing strong hurricane. Unless some other system gets the name first, this will be "Cristobal" a name used in 2002 and 2008 for storms that never amounted to much, so this would be the first hurricane of that name.

My local weather, meanwhile, was cloudy and somewhat cool to start, then a bit warmer with sunshine by afternoon, 22 C for the high.

Sunday, 24 August, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Rain will gradually spread further east but may not arrive in north Leinster or east Ulster until afternoon (these regions have started quite cold, the temperature at 0600h was only 2 C at Markree, Sligo -- this chill won't be fully dissipated until afternoon). Some heavier bursts with slight risk of a thunderstorm in central to southeast counties mid-day, 10-15 mm potential, with moderate southeast winds developing, some gusts to 70 km/hr, and highs about 16 C, except for west Munster where 18 C is possible late afternoon as a somewhat milder air mass pushes in from the south.

TONIGHT ... A second and possibly heavier band of rain will develop and move into Munster, reaching south Leinster by dawn. This will bring 10 mm overnight and more during the day on Monday. Further north, misty with drizzle or occasional light rain. Lows 8-10 C north, 10-13 C south.

MONDAY ... With a track along the south coast, the second disturbance will turn winds back to the east for most regions, except possibly along the Waterford and Wexford coasts where it could stay southerly for a time. Heavy rain will spread through Munster into south Leinster. 15-20 mm further accumulations are likely there. For most of Connacht, Ulster and north Leinster, rain will be intermittent and not as heavy except for some isolated thundery showers, and amounts will be generally 5-10 mm. Highs will vary from about 14 C in the north to 18 C near the south coast.

TUESDAY ... Rain gradually ending through the early morning, just a few outbreaks of drizzle near south coast later in the day, variable cloud with some sunny breaks and northeasterly breezes during the mid-day and afternoon hours, morning lows 9-11 C and afternoon highs 15-17 C.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY ... Further rain is likely with a rather warm, humid feel as highs reach 19 or 20 C in some places. Rainfalls of about 10 mm a day seem likely, isolated heavier amounts south-central counties.

FRIDAY could bring a break in the unsettled weather, and SATURDAY is somewhat uncertain but chances of rain will gradually increase with the approach of a slow-moving system timed for Saturday night into Sunday morning. This could drop some rather heavy rainfalls if it develops as shown on early guidance. However, this is not the developing tropical storm near the Bahamas, that may not arrive at all but seems likely to be absorbed into a frontal system over the central Atlantic around the first two days of September. Any rain from this would arrive 3-4 September.

Will update for Britain and North America tomorrow, earlier comments seem to remain valid ... meanwhile, my local weather has returned to very warm, sunny conditions with the high close to 27 C.

Tuesday, 26 August, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

I have added a rather lengthy astronomical note after the forecasts. Meanwhile, Cristobal has rapidly developed into a hurricane northeast of the Bahamas and appears on track to pass north of Ireland Sunday night or Monday. Effects on the weather in Ireland may actually be more positive than negative, as the circulation will be lifting further north by then.

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy at first, some sunny breaks likely mid-day and afternoon from about Clare to Dublin and north, just a few areas of patchy light rain near the south coast this morning, otherwise mainly dry. Highs could reach 19 or 20 C in any sunshine, 16-18 C under cloud. Moderate northeast winds backing to southeast 30-50 km/hr later.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, moderate southeast winds, chance of rain in west Munster. Lows 8-11 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Dry at first in north and east, some brighter intervals, but cloudy with showers developing south and west. Mild and humid, moderate southeast to south winds 40-60 km/hr. Highs 18-21 C, warmest ahead of the rain. About 5-10 mm rain on average but 15 mm locally west Munster.

THURSDAY ... Showers and thunderstorms, becoming quite windy in most areas (S-SW 50-80 km/hr) but stronger gusts to 100 km/hr possible around Donegal Bay and Mayo. Lows near 11 C and highs near 18 C. Rainfalls of about 10-15 mm on average. These winds are not associated with Hurricane Cristobal which will be somewhere south of Nova Scotia at this point.

FRIDAY ... Continuing rather windy across the north (from SW to W 50-80 km/hr) but winds easing mid-day and afternoon especially south and central regions. Morning showers followed by some afternoon sunny intervals. Lows around 10 C and highs around 19 C.

SATURDAY ... Sunny intervals, pleasantly warm. Lows near 8-10 C and highs in the 19-22 C range.

SUNDAY ... Increasing cloud, showers or periods of rain for northwest, other regions sunny to mid-day then cloudy with late showers. These will be associated with a front attached to remnants of distant "Cristobal" near Iceland at this point.

MONDAY ... Showers continuing, breezy or windy. Highs near 20 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... A generally rather warm pattern with brief showery intervals but a reasonable amount of fair weather for the first week of September.

My local weather was sunny with cloudy intervals and quite warm again with highs near 27 C on Monday. See previous day for further details on Britain and North America.

Astronomy note: Mars passes below Saturn in the evening skies over the next two nights. The chances of seeing this are probably better this evening than they will be on the following evening (the closest approach is at 2 p.m. Wednesday more favourably timed for eastern Asia). This is not a really close "conjunction" but interesting to see, and then on the weekend the moon (approaching first quarter) will move very close to Saturn on Sunday evening. Once again, skies may be clear for earlier phases of that event on Saturday night but the close grazing occultation may not be seen due to cloud Sunday night.

Thursday, 28 August, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

Look for specific "Electric Picnic" outlooks in the Friday to Sunday forecasts below using the title EP.


TODAY ... A few sunny intervals this morning, scattered showers and thunderstorms developing, becoming quite windy in most areas (S-SW 50-80 km/hr) but stronger gusts to 90 km/hr possible around Donegal Bay and Mayo by late afternoon and evening .... Highs will reach about 18 C. Rainfalls of about 10-15 mm on average, 15-30 mm northwest but only 5-10 mm parts of southeast. Some parts of the east will be fairly dry most of the day but with isolated heavier showers especially by late afternoon.

TONIGHT ... Periods of rain and windy across the north, but strongest winds easing slightly after midnight, gusts to 90 km/hr near Donegal Bay from WSW. More breezy than windy elsewhere, occasional rain, lows 11-13 C. Rainfalls of about 10 mm fairly widespread, 15-20 mm in some coastal areas north and south.

FRIDAY ... Continuing rather windy across the north (from SW to W 50-80 km/hr, compared with 40-60 km/hr most other regions) but winds easing mid-day and afternoon especially south and central regions. Morning showers followed by some afternoon sunny intervals. Lows around 10 C and highs around 19 C. Rainfalls across north 5-10 mm, elsewhere 2-5 mm and largely ending by mid-day. EP -- a few morning showers, then gradual clearing, breezy from west, temps 17-19 C. Overnight lows into Saturday morning around 11 C with mostly dry but occasionally drizzly conditions.

SATURDAY ... In most regions, sunny intervals, pleasantly warm. Lows near 8-10 C and highs in the 18-21 C range. More cloud and a few showers likely in parts of the north and coastal west. EP -- only a slight chance of showers and about a 60% chance of a dry day with good sunny intervals developing, highs about 19 C. Moderate westerly breezes. Overnight into early Sunday should be dry and mild, lows only falling to about 12 C.

SUNDAY ... Increasing cloud, showers or periods of rain by late afternoon or evening for parts of the northwest, but other regions sunny to mid-day then cloudy with late overnight showers. These will be associated with a front attached to remnants of distant "Cristobal" expected to be moving northeast near Iceland. At that point Ireland will be in the very warm and increasingly humid subtropical air mass dragged northeast by the hurricane. Morning lows 8-11 C and highs 19-24 C. EP -- There could be some cloud at times but warm or even hot sunshine is likely, with a slight southerly breeze increasing to moderate near the end of the day, highs could reach 23 C. Should note that there is a slight risk of this very warm air creating some instability but at this point it's more likely to arrive overnight after most of the event, crews may be encountering some thundershowers by Monday morning, but these should be fast-moving and brief.

MONDAY ... Showers or morning thundershowers ending, sunny intervals developing, breezy or windy (from WSW 40-70 km/hr). Lows near 15 C and highs near 22 C. EP site would be warm and dry most of the day with brief passing showers and possible thundershowers.

TUESDAY ... Hazy sunshine, very warm. Morning mist or fog patches quickly dissipating. Lows near 11 C and highs near 24 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... A generally rather warm pattern with a reasonable amount of fair weather for the first week of September, warm to hot southeast flow could boost temperatures into mid 20s. Misty or foggy late overnights and mornings in some rural areas.

For Britain, most of the wet weather today and Thursday will be fairly similar to that predicted for Ireland except in some parts of the east which will see lesser amounts. The stronger winds, however, will be diminished and only likely to affect the western Isles and nearby parts of Scotland. Any effects from the front attached to Cristobal will be delayed into Monday and that front seems likely to be quite sporadic east of the Irish Sea. However, this track is not really set at this point with some risk of stronger winds in both Ireland and Britain. The warm spell could be even hotter next week in southeast England.

Across North America, western heat is set to end over the next few days and heavy storms are developing in parts of the central plains states ahead of a hot and humid push of Gulf air, but it's very warm and dry ahead of that in the east. Distant and decaying "Marie" off the southwest coast has created huge swells on the California coast with 3-5 metre surf for the California beaches. None of that has made it this far north but we held on to warm sunshine for one more day with highs near 27 C. I did some recycling and the wasps or hornets are gathering en masse, it's that time of year.