Property Market 2020

fliball123 · 06-05-2020 12:42pm

Villa05 wrote: »

You know your in a bubble when we are talking about repaying loans over 40 or more years

Alot of small business owners in this segment, who may have significant loans with Knock on effect on future lending

These jobs are performed by people who rent, without an income rent levels are unsustainable.

These jobs may be the difference between a young person getting through college or not, cutting student let's and and negatively impacting ftb incomes of the future

This could be seen before covid 19 due to affordability, , in a recession people switch to lower priced options pulling demand away from premium priced itens

The banks never went gun ho on reposseions, they had a policy of sitting on their hands waiting for prices to improve, knowing they had someone in the asset to maintain it for free.

This policy has back fired as they have normalised the behaviour of obtaining a loan and not repaying it.

This, long term, can only be negative for an asset class who's value is determined by how much a bank will lend to purchase it

The cost of the bailout last time was 60 billion, we are currently estimated to be at half that due to spending on virus control plus lost revenue in taxes

Most of debt racked up last time was due to unsustainable public spending. The govt have been spending the past 8 years in bringing that public spending back to unsustainable levels. Of course the debt mountain of the last crash is still there

Sorry yes the banks did initially try to repossess and once the lads who had money hidden away and declared bankruptcy started getting high priced lawyers involved the banks were shown to be toothless when trying to repossess and the unwashed massed knew they couldnt be thrown out. The same can now be seen with landlord and tenants where it is taken nearly 2 years to get a tenant out who does not want to pay. . This was rampant from 2010 onwards you only have to look at some of the court cases that involved the so called elite in society.

https://www.thesun.ie/news/4375988/karl-deeter-home-repossessions-ireland/

You think they wanted someone in an asset that was depreciating for 4 years + and not getting a cent from the mortgage holder really?. I don't know how you do business but i can tell you of at least a half dozen people I know where the banks where hounding them to move out of the house as they had not paid the mortgage.

Sorry the cost of the bailout for the banks was 40 billion but 200billion over all when ps pay pensions and welfare is factored in thats how much we had to borrow.

cnocbui · 06-05-2020 12:43pm

This is interesting:

Why Home Prices Are Rising During the Pandemic
While buyer demand has softened and sales fell 8.5% in March, the supply of homes on the market is contracting even faster

https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-home-prices-are-rising-during-the-pandemic-11588671002

House prices up despite coronavirus, finds CoreLogic
Despite a sharp drop in market activity and a severe weakening in consumer sentiment, home price rises were recorded across most capital cities, driving national house prices up 0.3 per cent in April.
...
However, while sale prices continued to edge up, the number of home listings was 35 per cent lower at the end of April relative to the same time a year ago and 43 per cent below the five-year average.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-01/coronavirus-australia-house-price-effect-minimal-so-far/12201062

NZ house prices rise in April but lockdown impact still unknown

WELLINGTON, May 6 (Reuters) - New Zealand house prices rose an annual 7.1% in April to an average value of NZ$735,979 (€410,264)

https://www.reuters.com/article/newzealand-economy-houseprices/nz-house-prices-rise-in-april-but-lockdown-impact-still-unknown-idUSL4N2CN0HV

So maybe house prices are influenced by the available supply. Some economist should look into that idea, there might be something to it.

eagle eye · 06-05-2020 12:47pm

Crikey, that's a whopping average house price in New Zealand.

cnocbui · 06-05-2020 12:57pm

eagle eye wrote: »

Crikey, that's a whopping average house price in New Zealand.

But, everyone knows Dublin house prices are the worst, anywhere. :rolleyes:

Yes, those NZ prices are stiff. Pity me that I want to move there but want to sell property here first.

You should see the quality too. Those prices typically get you timber frame with cladding and a tin roof, and likely as not, no insulation. Certainly no central heating or double glazing or air tight.

Prices are high in NZ because people actually want to live there, unlike Dublin, and supply is low.

hometruths · 06-05-2020 1:03pm

Bass Reeves wrote: »

I would not consider 15% a significant correction/drop. That would not cause consternation in the market. Last recession there were properties that dropped 75-80% some are still only 30-40%of there original price in some area's. I think outside of larger urban centers hoses prices have not skyrocketed as well there was a good few doer uppers still around.

15% would only be an issue to forced sellers and even then you have to be forced to sell for it to be a huge issue

My view is that 15% is likely to be a minimum, I think about 30% is more probable.

Sure if market ultimately bottomed out at 15% it probably wouldn't cause lasting consternation, but I if we reach that point I bet there will at least be a few jitters.

Point is I think 15% is past soft landing territory.

Prezatch · 06-05-2020 1:27pm

I've seen one house in the 500-700k range fall 50k recently, granted it needs a lot of work and is an old building. But it was taken down, then reposted back up to avoid it showing up as a property price decrease on MyHome. Just FYI in case people are looking at that.

Hubertj · 06-05-2020 1:53pm

schmittel wrote: »

My view is that 15% is likely to be a minimum, I think about 30% is more probable.

Sure if market ultimately bottomed out at 15% it probably wouldn't cause lasting consternation, but I if we reach that point I bet there will at least be a few jitters.

Point is I think 15% is past soft landing territory.

when people refer to soft landing is it how far they fall or how long it takes to fall or a combination of both? So if it is 20% over 12-18 months that doesn't sound soft to me but 20% over 36 months sounds softer?

JimmyVik · 06-05-2020 1:55pm

Prezatch wrote: »

I've seen one house in the 500-700k range fall 50k recently, granted it needs a lot of work and is an old building. But it was taken down, then reposted back up to avoid it showing up as a property price decrease on MyHome. Just FYI in case people are looking at that.

But sure that was happening last year and the year before too.
Houses are often put on the market and prices reduced because they were priced too high. One swallow and all that.

Ozark707 · 06-05-2020 1:57pm

Prezatch wrote: »

I've seen one house in the 500-700k range fall 50k recently, granted it needs a lot of work and is an old building. But it was taken down, then reposted back up to avoid it showing up as a property price decrease on MyHome. Just FYI in case people are looking at that.

I have seen similar as well. Not sure why they go to this bother.

Bass Reeves · 06-05-2020 2:09pm

The last recession was about 60+billion for property and banks gross at the time. The net cost was 45-50billion as Nama managed the outcome and there is equity in the banks to be recovered but we struggled with the amount on the day.

The deficit was heading for 30billion + one year. It was 10billion+ for 2-3years as well before we got it finally under control. This was in a scenario where construction was at a standstill for 4-6years. As well a lot of MNC's were going because if our cost base and this fed into the indigenous sector. This time we will still have a construction and MNC sectors. Tourism will really struggle as will the hospitality sector. But the rest of the service sector may recover to 70-90% of present capacity

I think in 2002-4 house prices fell 15-20% but recovered it was not a huge shock to property

Villa05 · 06-05-2020 2:20pm

fliball123 wrote:

You think they wanted someone in an asset that was depreciating for 4 years + and not getting a cent from the mortgage holder really?. I don't know how you do business but i can tell you of at least a half dozen people I know where the banks where hounding them to move out of the house as they had not paid the mortgage.

You forget these were zombie institutions, they only went after people in trouble who had equity in their homes looking for a voluntary surrender. The customers they were chasing were in a better financial position than the banks were. I would just tell them sod off, knowing I will survive longer than they will plus there only alive because the tax payer is keeping them from going under

fliball123 wrote:

Sorry the cost of the bailout for the banks was 40 billion but 200billion over all when ps pay pensions and welfare is factored in thats how much we had to borrow.

The cost of the bank bailout was 64 billion at the time, the 40 billion is net of fees imposed on banks and share sales, however it appears to not include the interest paid to date on on the 64 billion which was over 5% initially before reducing over time.

It also fails to take into account that banks pay no tax on profits currently as it is written off by losses the taxpayer has covered

cnocbui · 06-05-2020 2:24pm

JimmyVik wrote: »

But sure that was happening last year and the year before too.
Houses are often put on the market and prices reduced because they were priced too high. One swallow and all that.

Back at the turn of the century, I traded up. The old house sat on the market for 14-16 months with no interest and no price reduction. Then all of a sudden, someone had a look and put in a bid, then another did, and another. Over a year of no interest and then suddenly 3 bidders.

Sold for more than we were asking, of course. So a property just sitting unsold on the market doesn't necessarily mean the vendors are asking too much r trying it on.

Ozark707 · 06-05-2020 2:29pm

cnocbui wrote: »

Back at the turn of the century, I traded up. The old house sat on the market for 14-16 months with no interest and no price reduction. Then all of a sudden, someone had a look and put in a bid, then another did, and another. Over a year of no interest and then suddenly 3 bidders.

Sold for more than we were asking, of course. So a property just sitting unsold on the market doesn't necessarily mean the vendors are asking too much r trying it on.

I presume at the turn of the century HP's were increasing all the time so this wouldn't have surprised me. Now however would it not be a good selling strategy to show you are mindful of where the market is at. If you reduce the AP and get a bidding war going it could turn out to be the correct strategy.

I am see loads of places just sit on the market for 6-12 months in cases. They were overpriced pre Covid, so why on earth keep to the same pricing now? Obviously under no pressure to sell.

fliball123 · 06-05-2020 2:54pm

Villa05 wrote: »

You forget these were zombie institutions, they only went after people in trouble who had equity in their homes looking for a voluntary surrender. The customers they were chasing were in a better financial position than the banks were. I would just tell them sod off, knowing I will survive longer than they will plus there only alive because the tax payer is keeping them from going under

The cost of the bank bailout was 64 billion at the time, the 40 billion is net of fees imposed on banks and share sales, however it appears to not include the interest paid to date on on the 64 billion which was over 5% initially before reducing over time.

It also fails to take into account that banks pay no tax on profits currently as it is written off by losses the taxpayer has covered

The bailout to the bank figure does not really matter we had to borrow 200billion this time its 30billion big big difference already between the 2 recessions and every bank were chasing down people who were not paying mortgages looking for repossessions and they went after everyone who stopped paying a mortgage regardless of if the person couldn't pay or decided not to pay. A lot of the times people who had no equity or in neg equity just jingle mailed the keys back. But this time people know they can get away with years not paying the mortgage and even if their house goes into negative equity they can stay there without paying for as long as they want.. They will be up the cost of renting, why would they go anywhere?

hometruths · 06-05-2020 3:10pm

Hubertj wrote: »

when people refer to soft landing is it how far they fall or how long it takes to fall or a combination of both? So if it is 20% over 12-18 months that doesn't sound soft to me but 20% over 36 months sounds softer?

my understanding of the phrase is total fall peak to trough irrespective of timescale.

cnocbui · 06-05-2020 4:16pm

Ozark707 wrote: »

I presume at the turn of the century HP's were increasing all the time so this wouldn't have surprised me. Now however would it not be a good selling strategy to show you are mindful of where the market is at. If you reduce the AP and get a bidding war going it could turn out to be the correct strategy.

I am see loads of places just sit on the market for 6-12 months in cases. They were overpriced pre Covid, so why on earth keep to the same pricing now? Obviously under no pressure to sell.

This overpriced meme just never ends.

I just used the Property Price register 7-Jul to 9th Sep 2019 and averaged the first page of results:

The average came to: €372,791.

Then I looked at the Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland construction replacement cost calculator for their 95 square m average 3 bedroom semi detached in Dublin.

So that mostly leaves land, which everyone thinks is too expensive. Dublin is a capital city. I wonder what a building block costs in London or Paris or Amsterdam? No, I'll go easy and pick Brisbane. $232,500 was the average price in 2018. that's €137,874. So add €207,195 and we have €345,069.

Well duck me.

SozBbz · 06-05-2020 4:22pm

cnocbui wrote: »

This overpriced meme just never ends.

I just used the Property Price register 7-Jul to 9th Sep 2019 and averaged the first page of results:

The average came to: €372,791.

Then I looked at the Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland construction replacement cost calculator for their 95 square m average 3 bedroom semi detached in Dublin.

So that mostly leaves land, which everyone thinks is too expensive. Dublin is a capital city. I wonder what a building block costs in London or Paris or Amsterdam? No, I'll go easy and pick Brisbane. $232,500 was the average price in 2018. that's €137,874. So add €207,195 and we have €345,069.

Well duck me.

Brisbane is not comparable to Dublin.... its how far down the list of Australian cities? Also please provide the source of your information because that sounds very low for me. Also you're talking about building costs and sales prices in the same breath - this is very confused.

Also can you not the obvious issue with your "sample".... hint, its the clearly super premium apartment for €1.5m in D4.

cnocbui · 06-05-2020 4:38pm

SozBbz wrote: »

Brisbane is not comparable to Dublin.... its how far down the list of Australian cities? Also please provide the source of your information because that sounds very low for me. Also you're talking about building costs and sales prices in the same breath - this is very confused.

Also can you not the obvious issue with your "sample".... hint, its the clearly super premium apartment for €1.5m in D4.

It's a random sample, as in that's what the first page came up as. It's offset by the €92.5K one you didn't seem to want to mention. If I were to scroll the list a bit there's properties at over 700 and 950K, so there you go. If you want to average all 50, then be by guest, I doubt it's going to shift the average much.

You are damned right about not comparing Brisbane and Dublin. Do you not get that I was deliberately going easy in picking Brisbane and not another capital city? If I were to pick the land price of a capital city, then that is likely to be way more than Brisbane, which would have shown up the Dublin house prices as cheap, rather than the overpriced everyone bangs on about. I got the Brisbane price from here: https://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/brisbane-qld/brisbane-backyards-nearly-30pc-smaller-than-a-decade-ago/news-story/93659ac68c8c72918ef8fe3f5424b76c

SozBbz · 06-05-2020 5:01pm

cnocbui wrote: »

It's a random sample, as in that's what the first page came up as. It's offset by the €92.5K one you didn't seem to want to mention. If I were to scroll the list a bit there's properties at over 700 and 950K, so there you go. If you want to average all 50, then be by guest, I doubt it's going to shift the average much.

You are damned right about not comparing Brisbane and Dublin. Do you not get that I was deliberately going easy in picking Brisbane and not another capital city? If I were to pick the land price of a capital city, then that is likely to be way more than Brisbane, which would have shown up the Dublin house prices as cheap, rather than the overpriced everyone bangs on about. I got the Brisbane price from here: https://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/brisbane-qld/brisbane-backyards-nearly-30pc-smaller-than-a-decade-ago/news-story/93659ac68c8c72918ef8fe3f5424b76c

It doesn't matter that you picked the first page - the fact that you only picked one page means your sample is far too small to infer anything. I highlighted the 1.5m property because it highlights how irrelevant a sample of that size is. What are you spending time manually adding up and dividing numbers from the PPR for. The CSO publish annual stats and breakdown by houses and apartments. Thats far more credible.

Classic..... saying you picked Brisbane because it fits your argument and simultaneously admitting all of the other more notable Austrailian cities would actually undermine your argument. Let alone Paris or Amsterdam as mentioned previously, which would actually annihilate your argument. We can all cherry pick data points to ourselves - but what you've done here is pretty transparent and therefore meaningless IMO.

Greyian · 06-05-2020 5:06pm

SozBbz wrote: »

It doesn't matter that you picked the first page - the fact that you only picked one page means your sample is far too small to infer anything. I highlighted the 1.5m property because it highlights how irrelevant a sample of that size is. What are you spending time manually adding up and dividing numbers from the PPR for. The CSO publish annual stats and breakdown by houses and apartments. Thats far more credible.

Classic..... saying you picked Brisbane because it fits your argument and simultaneously admitting all of the other more notable Austrailian cities would actually undermine your argument. Let alone Paris or Amsterdam as mentioned previously, which would actually annihilate your argument. We can all cherry pick data points to ourselves - but what you've done here is pretty transparent and therefore meaningless IMO.

And yet you don't seem to see that he's saying property prices aren't overpriced...
(which, is not a viewpoint I'd agree with, but that's irrelevant here)

Donald Trump · 06-05-2020 5:16pm

cnocbui wrote: »

This overpriced meme just never ends.

I just used the Property Price register 7-Jul to 9th Sep 2019 and averaged the first page of results:

The average came to: €372,791.

Then I looked at the Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland construction replacement cost calculator for their 95 square m average 3 bedroom semi detached in Dublin.

So that mostly leaves land, which everyone thinks is too expensive. Dublin is a capital city. I wonder what a building block costs in London or Paris or Amsterdam? No, I'll go easy and pick Brisbane. $232,500 was the average price in 2018. that's €137,874. So add €207,195 and we have €345,069.

Well duck me.

That's a rebuilding calculator which includes the cost of demolition and disposal of existing structure

SozBbz · 06-05-2020 5:18pm

Greyian wrote: »

And yet you don't seem to see that he's saying property prices aren't overpriced...
(which, is not a viewpoint I'd agree with, but that's irrelevant here)

What I'm saying is why would you structure an arguement this way, its bizarre. There is better data available and better more comparable citites.

I don't think Dublin is really that overpriced. Obviously there are some premium properties going for mad money but thats the same everywhere.

People expect really high standards these days. I'm sure those rebuild costs reflect that. I went through them myself when getting insurance for my own home last year and they have to factor in all the mod cons that people expect in a new build, as even though my house is roughly 115 years old, to build it again as it was in its original state woulndlt be allowed. The rebuild on my house came in around €300k alone (less than the site value) and thats because if it were to be built from the ground up tomorrow, there'd be high spec wiring, underfloor heating, heat pump, it would be basically air tight...... basically it would probably be a far better house than it is currently, and certainly cheaper to run (although we'd lose the character).

People expect all of that stuff these days yet are seemingly surprised that it costs a lot of money in comparison to building something even to say a 1980's standard which may or may not even have had central heating.

hometruths · 06-05-2020 5:41pm

cnocbui wrote: »

This overpriced meme just never ends.

I just used the Property Price register 7-Jul to 9th Sep 2019 and averaged the first page of results:

The average came to: €372,791.

Then I looked at the Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland construction replacement cost calculator for their 95 square m average 3 bedroom semi detached in Dublin.

So that mostly leaves land, which everyone thinks is too expensive. Dublin is a capital city. I wonder what a building block costs in London or Paris or Amsterdam? No, I'll go easy and pick Brisbane. $232,500 was the average price in 2018. that's €137,874. So add €207,195 and we have €345,069.

Well duck me.

Utterly fatuous nonsense.

I get that it is perfectly normally to have differing views on the pricing of property and that is what makes a market but anybody trying to make an informed decision on this sort of analysis needs their head examined.

Duck me indeed.

wassie · 06-05-2020 6:32pm

SozBbz wrote: »

People expect really high standards these days. I'm sure those rebuild costs reflect that. I went through them myself when getting insurance for my own home last year and they have to factor in all the mod cons that people expect in a new build, as even though my house is roughly 115 years old, to build it again as it was in its original state woulndlt be allowed. The rebuild on my house came in around €300k alone (less than the site value) and thats because if it were to be built from the ground up tomorrow, there'd be high spec wiring, underfloor heating, heat pump, it would be basically air tight...... basically it would probably be a far better house than it is currently, and certainly cheaper to run (although we'd lose the character).

People expect all of that stuff these days yet are seemingly surprised that it costs a lot of money in comparison to building something even to say a 1980's standard which may or may not even have had central heating.

People don't expect this, society does. A lot of that 'stuff' is actually the result of higher levels of mandated building standards in order to make our homes more comfortable, healthier, safer and sustainable.

cnocbui · 06-05-2020 8:13pm

Donald Trump wrote: »

That's a rebuilding calculator which includes the cost of demolition and disposal of existing structure

Even Linesight refer to the the SCSI replacement costs for residential: https://www.linesight.com/en-us/reports/ireland-2019/

Who are also quaoted by these architects: https://isabelbarrosarchitects.ie/blog/building-costs-ireland-2018/

schmittel wrote: »

Utterly fatuous nonsense.

I get that it is perfectly normally to have differing views on the pricing of property and that is what makes a market but anybody trying to make an informed decision on this sort of analysis needs their head examined.

Duck me indeed.

I will welcome your no doubt soon to be provided figures on house construction costs vs current prices in Dublin. If you think my methodology is unsound, let's see yours.

SozBbz wrote: »

It doesn't matter that you picked the first page - the fact that you only picked one page means your sample is far too small to infer anything. I highlighted the 1.5m property because it highlights how irrelevant a sample of that size is. What are you spending time manually adding up and dividing numbers from the PPR for. The CSO publish annual stats and breakdown by houses and apartments. Thats far more credible.

Classic..... saying you picked Brisbane because it fits your argument and simultaneously admitting all of the other more notable Austrailian cities would actually undermine your argument. Let alone Paris or Amsterdam as mentioned previously, which would actually annihilate your argument. We can all cherry pick data points to ourselves - but what you've done here is pretty transparent and therefore meaningless IMO.

No, my sample average is within 2% of the actual figure for the average Dublin house price in 2019 of €366,000 in and around Sep 2019.

Picking Brisbane wasn't because it fits my argument, quite the opposite, it was because it handicaps my argument considerably. Using the real asking price for vacant land in Dublin makes established houses in Dublin look positively cheap, but I didn't use Dublin prices because I knew there would have been an almight whinge that Dublin land prices are too steep, so I chose a non capital city land price that's probably a third to a fifth of actual Dublin land prices.

The bottom line is that Dublin was not overpriced before the pandemic, so expecting a 40% drop in prices is barking mad, especially given the supply shortage.

8-10 · 06-05-2020 9:12pm

cnocbui wrote: »

The bottom line is that Dublin was not overpriced before the pandemic, so expecting a 40% drop in prices is barking mad, especially given the supply shortage.

It's interesting to read the views of people looking to sell property. Glass half full here. Also works on the flip side.

Claw Hammer · 06-05-2020 9:13pm

cnocbui wrote: »

Even Linesight refer to the the SCSI replacement costs for residential: https://www.linesight.com/en-us/reports/ireland-2019/

Who are also quaoted by these architects: https://isabelbarrosarchitects.ie/blog/building-costs-ireland-2018/

I will welcome your no doubt soon to be provided figures on house construction costs vs current prices in Dublin. If you think my methodology is unsound, let's see yours.

No, my sample average is within 2% of the actual figure for the average Dublin house price in 2019 of €366,000 in and around Sep 2019.

Picking Brisbane wasn't because it fits my argument, quite the opposite, it was because it handicaps my argument considerably. Using the real asking price for vacant land in Dublin makes established houses in Dublin look positively cheap, but I didn't use Dublin prices because I knew there would have been an almight whinge that Dublin land prices are too steep, so I chose a non capital city land price that's probably a third to a fifth of actual Dublin land prices.

The bottom line is that Dublin was not overpriced before the pandemic, so expecting a 40% drop in prices is barking mad, especially given the supply shortage.

This is an attempt to measure intrinsic value. it has nothing to do with market value. market value is what someone is prepared to and willing to pay. no less and no more. Land values, build costs etc are irrelevant.

hometruths · 06-05-2020 9:43pm

cnocbui wrote: »

I will welcome your no doubt soon to be provided figures on house construction costs vs current prices in Dublin. If you think my methodology is unsound, let's see yours.

Its way beyond unsound. Unsound would imply your methodology was merely a little out of kilter. It is deluded.

For a start you seem to think your 'random sample' reflects activity in the market between Jul - Sep 2019. It actually merely consists of the 12 sales that closed in the last 10 days of September. Analysing the sales price data from 1852 to September 2019 would have given you the exact same result if you only look at the most recent 12!

On top of that, in an effort to crunch numbers to find an average market value, 25% of your sample size was sold below market value.

This is clearly bananas, irrespective of the fact that your average figure was fairly close to the actual average property price at the time.

Then taking your average of €372,791, you start on about the build cost of 3 bed semis. Hang on, are we talking about the average property or a 3 bed semi? The average price of a 3 bed semi in Dublin at the time was actually €428,500 some 15% higher than your average.

And then you bring in land values in Brisbane, arriving at a figure of €345,069 which presumably is supposed to imply that a Dublin 3 bed semi not massively over its true value?!

Ignoring the debatable fact of whether Brisbane land values are relevant or not, your methodology is still actually suggesting that a Dublin 3 bed semi is 24% too expensive (difference between €345,069 and €428,500).

NB I am not saying that a Dublin 3 bed semi is 24% overvalued, just that your (flawed) methodology suggests it is.

cnocbui · 06-05-2020 9:50pm

Claw Hammer wrote: »

This is an attempt to measure intrinsic value. it has nothing to do with market value. market value is what someone is prepared to and willing to pay. no less and no more. Land values, build costs etc are irrelevant.

They are not irrelevant. When market value falls below intrinsic value, supply ceases and the little cherubs all run around in ever decreasing circles, shrieking that the evil developers are not reducing prices to where they want them to be and just aren't building enough cheap houses for them to buy.

There are weird people who believe the market is the sole determiner of price. This is fallacious. The market can not dictate price below intrinsic cost, other than briefly, without supply ending.

hometruths · 06-05-2020 9:55pm

cnocbui wrote: »

I will welcome your no doubt soon to be provided figures on house construction costs vs current prices in Dublin. If you think my methodology is unsound, let's see yours.

I wouldn't bother looking too closely at house construction costs vs current prices in Dublin, because I agree with Claw Hammer that they are to a large degree irrelevant.

Having said that if I was curious, instead of b*ggering about and tying myself in knots with the PPR, build calculators and Brisbane land values I'd just read the research on the subject, I am sure there is more recent if I bothered to look harder but by way of example the first google result is
https://www.scsi.ie/documents/get_lob?id=868&field=file

Property Market 2020

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