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Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

1…5253555758…203

Comments

  • #2702
    GreeBo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,253 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    Bass Reeves wrote: »
    If he bought in 2005 and is on a tracker he on the best sure fire winner in history. His tracker would be in the 0.5-0.75% range. He had 2-3 bad years from 2009-2011 after that he was home free. He probably got a 110% @ 4-5 times earnings mortgage. If he borrowed 350K over 25 years his repayments at present are sub 1300/month and he pay a bit with 400K back over the 25 years and that is including the 2-3 years he was paying back at 3-4%

    He would be much better off renting the same house and paying 2500/month for the last 15 years and pleading with the banks to give him a mortgage at 3.5% so he can finally own his own house (he would also have interesting repayments considering he probably wont get another 25 years to repay...)

    :D


  • #2703
    Cyrus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,212 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    brisan wrote: »
    So 2 people in the same company doing exactly the same job and one gets paid less
    Good luck to the company if the one getting paid less is a woman

    as another poster said there will be an in the office salary and a wfh salary, wfh can be anywhere, but there wont be the same salary for both doesnt make sense.


  • #2704
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    Mod Note

    feel free to take the WFH salary debate to the Work & Jobs forum.


  • #2705
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    brisan wrote: »
    Bigger availability of cheaper building land in rural areas.
    Do you not think councils would fast track planning and builders build quickly if they thought there was a market

    Even if significant demand for rural properties does materialise, there are tens of thousands of them available and ready to be marketed and sold.

    Many of these properties probably haven't been marketed to date as the owners assumed there would be little demand.

    If that now changes and the owners believe there may be demand for these homes, the owners of these properties may spend a small sum refurbishing them and placing them on the market. Increased supply should then lead to lower prices.


  • #2706
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    PropQueries wrote: »
    Even if significant demand for rural properties does materialise, there are tens of thousands of them available and ready to be marketed and sold.

    I don't think so but open to evidence to the contrary.


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  • #2707
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Graham wrote: »
    I don't think so but open to evidence to the contrary.

    I'm just going by the 90,000 vacant homes that the latest Geodirectory stated were in Ireland.

    I'm not bringing this in to open that can of worms :) but many of the posters here seemed to believe they were all located in rural Ireland and not in the cities.

    Stands to reason many of these are currently available and with a relatively small investment in refurbishment etc. would be available to enter the market in a relatively short period of time i.e. no planning permission, time to build etc.

    I could be wrong.


  • #2708
    MacronvFrugals
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,028 ✭✭✭MacronvFrugals


    Houses in what people on here would call the dodgier parts of the northside are taking a hammering, daily 15-30k drops. I know some places over the southside are doing great price wise but its decent news for myself as a lot of these places are dropping back to half decent value so by the time i buy could grab a good deal.

    Worth adding pre-pandemic there was rarely drops >3-5% in the same areas.


  • #2709
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    Cyrus wrote: »
    you think cairn and glenveagh are publishing false accounts?

    Cairn and Glenveagh share prices have fallen significantly. They are discounting falls of over 10% in future sales.


  • #2710
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    Springy Turf wrote: »
    This isn't my situation specifically to be clear. But in my view, the very obvious choice in this case is to go ahead and buy rather than spending 24000+ a year in rent to be in a precarious rental situation.

    I think you will be very much in the minority if you think this couple shouldn't go ahead with their 350k deal.


    I dont care about the consensus. The consensus...at least on this board is probably wrong.

    You pay a lot of money to support the consensus, be it share trading or house purchase.

    Keep an eye on Glenveagh and Cairn share prices.

    The market says house prices are falling if their share price is anything to go on.


  • #2711
    cnocbui
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,110 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    I think the currently buying/selling thread is a far better indication of how the market is going than the share market.


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  • #2712
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    MacronvFrugals wrote: »
    Houses in what people on here would call the dodgier parts of the northside are taking a hammering, daily 15-30k drops. I know some places over the southside are doing great price wise but its decent news for myself as a lot of these places are dropping back to half decent value so by the time i buy could grab a good deal.

    Worth adding pre-pandemic there was rarely drops >3-5% in the same areas.

    Hold your nerve. The deals will get better.


  • #2713
    brisan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,242 ✭✭✭brisan


    Vikings wrote: »
    Can everyone agree that WFH will not have any impact on 2020 property prices, kick it to touch and discuss it elsewhere and get back to talking about the current property market?

    Viewed a house today asking 450k commuter town just outside Dublin. Sold for 410k 3 years ago and received significant work. EA reckons it'll go for 500k. I think in the present market it'll certainly fetch over asking probably 475-480.

    Well I would not believe an EA if he told me his name without showing me his passport.
    That said a lot of EAs are putting low asking prices on houses to garner interest


  • #2714
    brisan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,242 ✭✭✭brisan


    Cyrus wrote: »
    5 out of the 6 or 5 out of 11?

    depends on your definition of prime as well, some locations are more prime than others, whatever it is, houses at that price on the northside dont tend to shift as well as similar on the southside.

    5 out of 6
    killester -clontarf border ,considered a prime location


  • #2715
    MacronvFrugals
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,028 ✭✭✭MacronvFrugals


    Pelezico wrote: »
    Hold your nerve. The deals will get better.

    Want to buy around June 2021 so hopefully they dont start going back up by then :D


  • #2716
    brisan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,242 ✭✭✭brisan


    MacronvFrugals wrote: »
    If legit those margins are astonishing

    https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/belltree-belltree-clongriffin-dublin-13/3295777

    https://www.myhome.ie/residential/wexford/new-homes/property-for-sale?maxprice=250000


  • #2717
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    brisan wrote: »
    https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/belltree-belltree-clongriffin-dublin-13/3295777

    https://www.myhome.ie/residential/wexford/new-homes/property-for-sale?maxprice=250000


    Labour rates are lower outside Dublin.


  • #2718
    Cyrus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,212 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    brisan wrote: »
    5 out of 6
    killester -clontarf border ,considered a prime location

    So they are selling albeit it’s taking time .


  • #2719
    Cyrus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,212 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    Pelezico wrote: »
    Cairn and Glenveagh share prices have fallen significantly. They are discounting falls of over 10% in future sales.

    Why are you quoting me I was asking a different poster a different question .

    And their share prices have risen over the past 3 months oddly enough


  • #2720
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    Cyrus wrote: »
    Why are you quoting me I was asking a different poster a different question .

    And their share prices have risen over the past 3 months oddly enough


    Since February they are down heavily. The market, which is a fabulous discounting mechanism is anticipating falls in future prices.


  • #2721
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Pelezico wrote: »
    Since February they are down heavily. The market, which is a fabulous discounting mechanism is anticipating falls in future prices.

    Not only that. Cairn Homes had their IPO in 2015 at €1.00. Today, they are at €0.85. They hit €2.00 in January 2018. In December 2018, they were at €1.05.

    The big investors, including the founders, have been selling their shareholdings (i.e. getting out) strongly for the past 18 months, long before Covid.


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  • #2722
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    PropQueries wrote: »
    Not only that. Cairn Homes had their IPO in 2015 at €1.00. Today, they are at €0.85. They hit €2.00 in January 2018. In December 2018, they were at €1.05.

    The big investors, including the founders, have been selling their shareholdings (i.e. getting out) strongly for the past 18 months, long before Covid.

    One can only assume the insiders do not have faith in the market.

    Actually Glenveagh is selling apartments in Greystones for 500k. I would not touch them for 300k.


  • #2723
    cnocbui
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,110 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Pelezico wrote: »
    Hold your nerve. The deals will get better.

    Deals can get better if the market declines significantly, but the quality and choice will also decline as owners of quality properties will not list.


  • #2724
    Cyrus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,212 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    Pelezico wrote: »
    Since February they are down heavily. The market, which is a fabulous discounting mechanism is anticipating falls in future prices.

    On 27 feb glenveagh was 75c and on 12 August they were 73 cent

    You are just making stuff up


  • #2725
    Cyrus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,212 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    PropQueries wrote: »
    Not only that. Cairn Homes had their IPO in 2015 at €1.00. Today, they are at €0.85. They hit €2.00 in January 2018. In December 2018, they were at €1.05.

    The big investors, including the founders, have been selling their shareholdings (i.e. getting out) strongly for the past 18 months, long before Covid.

    The founders wealth was tied in to their founder shares of course they were going to sell some of them that’s why they went ipo in the first place .


  • #2726
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    Cyrus wrote: »
    On 27 feb glenveagh was 75c and on 12 August they were 73 cent

    You are just making stuff up

    Glenveagh was 92c on 21st January...now 68c. Serious decline post covid.


  • #2727
    Cyrus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,212 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    Pelezico wrote: »
    Glenveagh was 92c on 21st January...now 68c. Serious decline post covid.

    47c on 1 April now 68c serious growth over the period


  • #2728
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    Cyrus wrote: »
    On 27 feb glenveagh was 75c and on 12 August they were 73 cent

    You are just making stuff up

    Glenveagh was 92c on 21st January...now 68c. Serious decline post covid.


  • #2729
    Cyrus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,212 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    Pelezico wrote: »
    Glenveagh was 92c on 21st January...now 68c. Serious decline post covid.

    They were the exact same share price a year ago as they are now

    But go on and selectively pick a period that supports whatever it is you are trying to say


  • #2730
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Cyrus wrote: »
    They were the exact same share price a year ago as they are now

    But go on and selectively pick a period that supports whatever it is you are trying to say

    But, wouldn't that show that the big investors weren't too confident about the future of the residential property market in Ireland even pre-covid?


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  • #2731
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    PropQueries wrote: »
    But, wouldn't that show that the big investors weren't too confident about the future of the residential property market in Ireland even pre-covid?

    Cairn Homes 134c down to 87c. A serious decline post covid.


  • #2732
    Cyrus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,212 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    PropQueries wrote: »
    But, wouldn't that show that the big investors weren't too confident about the future of the residential property market in Ireland even pre-covid?

    What price do you think glenveagh should be to represent confidence by big investors and why ?


  • #2733
    Cyrus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,212 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    Pelezico wrote: »
    Cairn Homes 134c down to 87c. A serious decline post covid.

    9 percent decrease yoy


  • #2734
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    Cyrus wrote: »
    What price do you think glenveagh should be to represent confidence by big investors and why ?

    Just look at the graphs year to date for Cairn and Glenveagh. Both down and heavily.

    They are discounting heavy falls in the future price if homes. Seems reasonable to me.


  • #2735
    Cyrus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,212 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    Pelezico wrote: »
    Just look at the graphs year to date for Cairn and Glenveagh. Both down and heavily.

    They are discounting heavy falls in the future price if homes. Seems reasonable to me.

    Why were they the same price a year ago ?


  • #2736
    brisan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,242 ✭✭✭brisan


    Cyrus wrote: »
    you think cairn and glenveagh are publishing false accounts?

    No lets just say they are pushing the boundaries


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  • #2737
    brisan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,242 ✭✭✭brisan


    MacronvFrugals wrote: »
    Houses in what people on here would call the dodgier parts of the northside are taking a hammering, daily 15-30k drops. I know some places over the southside are doing great price wise but its decent news for myself as a lot of these places are dropping back to half decent value so by the time i buy could grab a good deal.

    Worth adding pre-pandemic there was rarely drops >3-5% in the same areas.

    Any examples ??


  • #2738
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    Cyrus wrote: »
    Why were they the same price a year ago ?

    I am only interested in my boy. He was gazumped early Feb and the market was hot.

    Since then, things have headed south. I expect further decay myself.


  • #2739
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Cyrus wrote: »
    What price do you think glenveagh should be to represent confidence by big investors and why ?

    Not a professional investor and can only go by Cairn Homes share price, but i'll give it my best shot.

    I would assume investors who bought into Cairn Homes at the IPO price of €1.00 in 2015 did their analysis at that time and regarded €1.00 as fair value with some potential for upside.

    Given that they were back at their IPO price in December 2018, two and half years later, would indicate that investors either overvalued Cairn Homes at the IPO stage or their view on the future of the Irish residential market deteriorated significantly in those two years and they then saw little value in the Irish residential market going forward.

    Wouldn't a bet on Cairn Homes be a bet on the residential market in Ireland? If the estate agents are right about all the pent-up demand at the moment, wouldn't investors see this as a great buying opportunity for Cairn Homes? Unless the estate agents are not telling us the truth...

    Maybe I'm wrong.


  • #2740
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    PropQueries wrote: »
    Not a professional investor and can only go by Cairn Homes share price, but i'll give it my best shot.

    I would assume investors who bought into Cairn Homes at the IPO price of €1.00 in 2015 did their analysis at that time and regarded €1.00 as fair value with some potential for upside.

    Given that they were back at their IPO price in December 2018, two and half years later, would indicate that investors either overvalued Cairn Homes at the IPO stage or their view on the future of the Irish residential market deteriorated significantly in those two years and they then saw little value in the Irish residential market going forward.

    Wouldn't a bet on Cairn Homes be a bet on the residential market in Ireland? If the estate agents are right about all the pent-up demand at the moment, wouldn't investors see this as a great buying opportunity for Cairn Homes? Unless the estate agents are not telling us the truth...

    Maybe I'm wrong.

    The market is discounting poor news from home sales for these two companies.

    Of more concern is the Irish banks share prices. They are the cheapest in Europe. The market expects very bad news, presumably a heavy level of defaults.

    Just look at AIB performance ytd. Horrible.

    Defaults will probably impact banks ability to lend money.

    It is not good guys. Any potential house buyer should have graphs of these companies share prices printed off and displayed on their fridges for easy viewing every morning.


  • #2741
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Pelezico wrote: »
    The market is discounting poor news from home sales for these two companies.

    Of more concern is the Irish banks share prices. They are the cheapest in Europe. The market expects very bad news, presumably a heavy level of defaults.

    Just look at AIB performance ytd. Horrible.

    Defaults will probably impact banks ability to lend money.

    It is not good guys. Any potential buyer should have graphs of these companies share prices printed off and displayed on their fridges for easy viewing every morning.

    Isn’t that what happened in 2007/ 2008? The investors couldn’t bet against our currency as we were in the Euro, so they bet against the stocks that best represented the Irish economy by proxy i.e. the banks.

    In todays world, it’s the banks and the local home builders.

    And yes, I have my very amateur investor hat on.


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  • #2742
    JJJackal
    Registered Users Posts: 1,016 ✭✭✭JJJackal


    Pelezico wrote: »
    The market is discounting poor news from home sales for these two companies.

    Of more concern is the Irish banks share prices. They are the cheapest in Europe. The market expects very bad news, presumably a heavy level of defaults.

    Just look at AIB performance ytd. Horrible.

    Defaults will probably impact banks ability to lend money.

    It is not good guys. Any potential house buyer should have graphs of these companies share prices printed off and displayed on their fridges for easy viewing every morning.

    Above all else you want the property market to collapse. You have a vested interest in its collapse as your son is buying a property.

    Alot of the data you present is selective eg picking out the highest share price of Glenveagh or Cairns and indicating a massive drop


  • #2743
    JJJackal
    Registered Users Posts: 1,016 ✭✭✭JJJackal


    Pelezico wrote: »
    The market is discounting poor news from home sales for these two companies.

    Of more concern is the Irish banks share prices. They are the cheapest in Europe. The market expects very bad news, presumably a heavy level of defaults.

    Just look at AIB performance ytd. Horrible.

    Defaults will probably impact banks ability to lend money.

    It is not good guys. Any potential house buyer should have graphs of these companies share prices printed off and displayed on their fridges for easy viewing every morning.

    The S&P 500 has its fastest growth of all times and is likely to reach an all time high in the next 6 months! Increased almost 50% in value. Looking good everyone!

    (this of course fails to take into account the previous fastest fall of all times and the fact that it will be just about at the same level as the pre-crash peak!)


  • #2744
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    JJJackal wrote: »
    Above all else you want the property market to collapse. You have a vested interest in its collapse as your son is buying a property.

    Alot of the data you present is selective eg picking out the highest share price of Glenveagh or Cairns and indicating a massive drop

    But Glenveagh and Cairn Homes share prices were falling continuously well before Covid. To me that would signal investors had a dim view of the future of the residential market in Ireland for at least the last two years.


  • #2745
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    JJJackal wrote: »
    Above all else you want the property market to collapse. You have a vested interest in its collapse as your son is buying a property.

    Alot of the data you present is selective eg picking out the highest share price of Glenveagh or Cairns and indicating a massive drop

    Everybody on this board including the two active mods has a vested interest in the market. Let's not be under any illusion about that.

    What price do you want to pick out for AIB or Bank of ireland which fell 5% today?

    Tte economy is in dreadful shape and people should exercise caution when making the biggest financial decision of their lives.


  • #2746
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,165 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Cyrus wrote: »
    What price do you think glenveagh should be to represent confidence by big investors and why ?

    About 126 - because that's what it was when their investors were at their most bullish, in January 2018. It's been trending downwards since then.

    Its dropped 44% in that trend.


  • #2747
    JJJackal
    Registered Users Posts: 1,016 ✭✭✭JJJackal


    PropQueries wrote: »
    But Glenveagh and Cairn Homes share prices were falling continuously well before Covid. To me that would signal investors had a dim view of the future of the residential market in Ireland for at least the last two years.

    Glenveagh prices have almost doubled since March! thats unreal growth. A great sign of confidence in the building industry

    (0.47 in March to 0.73 August) - why is the price of shares doubling?!


  • #2748
    JJJackal
    Registered Users Posts: 1,016 ✭✭✭JJJackal


    Pelezico wrote: »
    Everybody on this board including the two active mods has a vested interest in the market. Let's not be under any illusion about that.

    What price do you want to pick out for AIB or Bank of ireland which fell 5% today?

    Tte economy is in dreadful shape and people should exercise caution when making the biggest financial decision of their lives.

    I can pick 2 random dates to prove my point with AIB and BOI shares - I can show a catastrophic fall or a miraculous rise depending on dates in the last 1 year


  • #2749
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    JJJackal wrote: »
    I can pick 2 random dates to prove my point with AIB and BOI shares - I can show a catastrophic fall or a miraculous rise depending on dates in the last 1 year

    Then make your own decision. By the way, the credit risks and derating of Irish banks has been big news in the last year. Investors have been creamed.

    Cairn and Glenveagh are poor performers.

    It all adds up to very poor news in the not too distant future.


  • #2750
    Hubertj
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    Pelezico wrote: »
    Then make your own decision. By the way, the credit risks and derating of Irish banks has been big news in the last year. Investors have been creamed.

    Cairn and Glenveagh are poor performers.

    It all adds up to very poor news in the not too distant future.

    so your son needs you to tell him how bad things are going to get? I presume he is an adult so should be able to figure it out himself? If he can't he has no place buying a house.


  • #2751
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    PropQueries wrote: »
    Isn’t that what happened in 2007/ 2008? The investors couldn’t bet against our currency as we were in the Euro, so they bet against the stocks that best represented the Irish economy by proxy i.e. the banks.

    In todays world, it’s the banks and the local home builders.

    And yes, I have my very amateur investor hat on.


    Not sure if you were around in the last recession but one of the most criticised decisions, ridiculed internationally was AIB statement that they would adopt a progressive dividend policy, eve as the financial world was collapsing along with house prices.

    AIB almost collapsed soon afterwards and house prices plummeted.


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