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18-10-2020, 07:59   #5791
M.T. Cranium
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Sunday, 18 October, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 18 to 24 Oct 2020

-- Temperatures will average about 1.0 deg above normal, mostly due to very mild nights, daytime readings will not be unusually high for mid-October.
-- Rainfall will average 50 to 100 per cent above normal values, with local maxima of 150 per cent above (or 250 per cent of normal). Much of this rain is expected on Monday and Tuesday with flood risks rising.
-- Sunshine will be only 25 to 50 per cent of normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will remain fairly dry although cloudy in most places with a few brief brighter intervals. Some pockets of moderate rain will graze the western coast of Connacht towards afternoon and evening, and elsewhere there could be isolated light showers. Moderate southeast breezes and highs 13 to 15 C.

TONIGHT will become wet in most of the south and west, and parts of Ulster, with 10-15 mm rainfalls in some of those areas, but it will be more of a drizzle in other areas, foggy at times with lows 7 to 10 C.

MONDAY will see rain becoming rather heavy and moving slowly through the midlands and southeast towards Leinster and east Ulster. Moderate east to southeast winds, highs near 13 C. Rainfalls 10-30 mm possible.

MONDAY NIGHT and TUESDAY a heavier rainfall is expected from a second low moving in on Monday night or early Tuesday, spreading 20-40 mm rainfalls through much of the country, with a risk of strong south to southwest winds on the south coast and spreading up the east coast, most likely between Cork and Wicklow (Dublin may or may not get into this windy regime briefly). The west and north of the country will have more moderate winds from east backing to northerly as the low tracks through the inland southeast. Rainfalls may be somewhat lower in parts of the northwest also. However, for many areas, significant flood risks may develop, monitor the relevant sources of flood information if you have concerns. Temperatures will be steady 12-14 C (near 10 C northwest).

By WEDNESDAY another low may develop closer to southwest England and place Ireland in a moist northeast flow for some of the day, then winds are likely to back to northwesterly and cooler air will arrive, temperatures falling to about 8-10 C, with potential for 10-20 mm further rainfalls.

THURSDAY should be a cooler day with northwest winds and passing showers or outbreaks of drizzle, winds 40 to 70 km/hr and lows near 5 C, highs near 9 C.

FRIDAY into early SATURDAY, a new disturbance from the Atlantic will push in with strong southwest winds and possibly more heavy rainfalls of 10-30 mm, temperatures rising to around 15 C.

The pattern after that storm passes looks very unsettled with most guidance developing a hurricane or strong low in the western Atlantic that will move towards Iceland during the last few days of October. The outcome for Ireland could be simply a mild spell without too much wind or rain, if the jet stream moves a bit to the north as some guidance suggests it will. But I wouldn't be too surprised given the energy shown by the jet all month if the actual outcome might be a strong wind event for coastal areas (some time after the 25th).

My local weather was overcast and cool with a high near 9 C, but we are into a gradual warming trend for the coming few days, so not much snow likely this week.

My winter forecast will be included in tomorrow's forecast package, the word "mild" does get a bit of a workout so be forewarned.
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19-10-2020, 07:28   #5792
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Monday, 19 October, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 19 to 25 October 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 50 to 75 per cent above normal, heaviest in the southwest.
-- Sunshine will average only 25 to 50 per cent of normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be milder with outbreaks of rain becoming heavy in a few locations, mostly over western counties. Amounts will vary from 5-10 mm east, to 15-25 mm west. Winds will be moderate southeast and will increase to strong overnight. Highs 14 to 16 C (mildest values inland south).

TONIGHT will be overcast and windy with heavy rain moving into Munster and spreading through most other regions before morning, possibly not reaching parts of Ulster until Tuesday. Winds will increase to southeast 50-80 km/hr for most areas, and 80-110 km/hr on the south coast. Temperatures steady near 12 C. Rainfalls 15-30 mm. Some flooding problems may begin during the later overnight hours (most likely in parts of west Munster and southwest Connacht).

TUESDAY will be breezy and mild with further showery rainfalls of 5-15 mm. Winds will veer to southwest 50-80 km/hr then ease gradually as the low reaches Connacht and weakens while continuing to track northeastward. Highs of 13 to 15 C.

WEDNESDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with showers or outbreaks of light rain, with winds veering around to more of a north to northeast direction as a secondary low tracks further south towards Britain. Rainfalls in Ireland should remain moderate with the heavier rain now into parts of Britain. Lows near 7 C and highs near 12 C.

THURSDAY will bring some sunny intervals and only isolated showers in a lighter wind regime, lows near 3 C and highs near 12 C.

FRIDAY will become quite breezy and milder with intervals of rain in the morning, some clear intervals mid-day, and a rather stormy finish to the day as a stronger low develops and hits the northwest by early Saturday morning. Winds will likely increase overnight to southwest 70-110 km/hr and may be even stronger on exposed Atlantic coasts. Lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C.

The further outlook is very unsettled. It looks as though "Epsilon" will form near Bermuda in the next two days and meander west, north and northeast for several days while this week unfolds, then as a powerful Atlantic low the remnants will head towards Iceland inducing a very strong southwest flow by middle of next week. Within that flow a secondary low could easily form and cause problems near Ireland's west coast, details may not be too clear for several days as first we need to get Epsilon into action so the models have something more concrete to process.

Here's how I think the winter might unfold, at least there is some hope for winter weather enthusiasts, mainly in late January into February and early March ...

Winter forecast ... The first half of the winter including December and most of January looks rather mild and occasionally stormy with temperatures 1 to 3 deg above normal and rainfall near average, little snow expected away from perhaps higher ground in the north. The second half of the winter looks more promising. The analogue set shows a tendency to blocking in February and some of the years in the set are quite cold. So the forecast conservatively says dry and rather cold weather patterns may dominate February and early March, with some chance of a more severe cold developing, and one or two snowfall events possible. A few of the analogues see the transition earlier allowing the colder synoptics to appear in January. I would say on balance this is a promising winter but with perhaps a one in three chance of remaining too mild throughout for winter weather enthusiasts.

My local weather on Sunday was foggy and cool after a dumping of wet snow in the early morning hours; as this snow melted, the air became quite saturated under a low cloud deck and visibility dropped to about 100 meters. The temperatures were gradually edging upward but held down to about 8 C so far, with somewhat milder air expected to break through for a day or two.
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20-10-2020, 07:22   #5793
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Tuesday, 20 October, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 20 to 26 October 2020

-- With some of the heavy rain already recorded, for this seven days rainfall will be closer to normal amounts.
-- Temperatures will be around 1 to 2 deg above normal values.
-- Sunshine will be 50 to 75 per cent of normal.


FORECASTS

TODAY ... A band of heavy rain will move gradually north, and last about 4-6 hours at various locations, arriving by later this morning in the midlands and central Leinster, to early afternoon across the north. 15 to 30 mm rainfalls can be expected. Winds southeast 50-80 km/hr veering south to southwest 60 to 100 km/hr (at least in southern counties, not as windy further north as the storm weakens gradually all day). Highs 13 to 16 C. There may be a more pleasant afternoon interval for parts of Munster where it's currently raining, with some mild sunny intervals after the rain ends there. That regime is not likely to push much further north as the low weakens and its component parts slow down towards evening.

TONIGHT ... Rain will become more intermittent where it continues at all, 5 to 10 mm in some places. Fog will become rather widespread before dawn. Lows 9 to 11 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Intermittent light rain, and somewhat cooler, highs near 12 C. Winds will become more variable and trend to northerly later in the day with a moderate north wind by afternoon on western coasts, 40 to 60 km/hr.

THURSDAY ... Extensive morning mist or fog, then sunny intervals, lows near 4 C and highs near 12 C.

FRIDAY ... Breezy to windy, occasional light rain, with a clearing trend mid-day and afternoon, winds southwest to west 50 to 70 km/hr, lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C.

SATURDAY ... Windy and mild with occasional rain, 5 to 15 mm expected ... lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C. Winds southwest 60 to 90 km/hr.

SUNDAY ... Occasional showers, winds moderating and not quite as mild, lows near 6 C and highs near 11 C.

OUTLOOK ... The following week is likely to be unsettled, and possibly quite stormy at times. Tropical Storm Epsilon has formed southeast of Bermuda, and will be near Bermuda by this weekend. After that, model guidance is all over the north Atlantic with the strong remnant low, Ireland can be considered as likely as anywhere else for Epsilon's final stages, and most guidance suggests that a second strong low will form in the wake of Epsilon, wherever it does eventually track, and follow along somewhat further south, so there's some chance of a 2-3 day interval of quite disturbed weather just before the end of the month. Also the forward speed of Epsilon next week is in some doubt and it could get very windy as soon as Tuesday or possibly not until closer to end of the week, if the remnant low does come calling.

My local weather on Monday was overcast and drizzly with a low cloud ceiling giving the appearance of fog and mist at times. The high was about 9 or 10 C.
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21-10-2020, 07:09   #5794
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Wednesday, 21 October, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 21 to 27 October

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal values, mainly due to milder nights, daytime highs won't be that far from seasonal normals.
-- Rainfall will be around normal values for late October, as we approach the wettest portion of the year.
-- Sunshine will be quite limited, but may manage to get as high as 75 per cent of normal since normal is now only around 3 hours a day.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy in eastern and southern counties, overcast in the north and west where a little more light rain is likely, as the last dying stages of the low are felt before it moves away towards Scotland. Winds will become moderate northerly as they already have done along the west coast, but it may not be until mid-afternoon that the winds shift on the east coast which could have a reasonably pleasant autumn day in the decaying circulation around the previously strong low. Highs 12 to 15 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy and misty, with fog patches thickening towards morning, lows 1 to 4 C.

THURSDAY will start out with extensive fog, mist and low cloud, then some sunny breaks are likely; only patchy drizzle with slight accumulations, and a dry afternoon. Highs 10 to 13 C.

FRIDAY will become breezy to windy from early morning on, and some rain will fall around the late overnight hours, only around 2-4 mm for most, in moderate southwest winds. Some clearing will follow around mid-day, winds continuing brisk west to southwest 50 to 80 km/hr.

SATURDAY will bring stronger winds that may reach 70 to 110 km/hr in exposed coastal areas. Some rain will be falling at most times during the day and in a few places it may be briefly heavy with thundery squalls possible in a fairly active cold front expected mid-day or afternoon. Lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C (to 16 C inland southeast).

SUNDAY will be breezy to windy and a bit cooler with occasional rain, highs near 11 C.

The OUTLOOK for next week is for unsettled weather to continue and it may in fact become quite stormy, as the remnant low of Epsilon seems increasingly likely to be near Ireland by about Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Right now, it has become a hurricane southeast of Bermuda and will take its time moving through that region towards southeast Newfoundland by about Sunday night, then as an extratropical low it will be heading east and swerving to the north just to the west of the Atlantic coasts of Ireland, bringing strong southerly winds and heavy rainfalls. As the low loops around, further development of low pressure in its wake could lead to more stormy weather later in the week.

My local weather was mostly cloudy with the sun sometimes visible through both cloud layers and mist left over from dense fog in the early hours. Although it was a bit milder in general, all this cloud and mist prevented temperatures from getting up very far, to around 10 C. If you have clear skies for any part of this evening, have a look for Jupiter and Saturn near the crescent moon (low in the southwest now), you'll notice that the separation of the two planets has decreased considerably since the summer viewings. I got a very brief look at this in a break in the clouds this evening here.
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22-10-2020, 07:16   #5795
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Thursday, 22 October, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 22 to 28 Oct 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal, mostly due to milder than average overnight readings.
-- Rainfall will be at least near normal if not slightly above, to 50 per cent above in some western counties.
-- Sunshine will be 50 to 75 per cent of normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will start out sunny then become partly cloudy later this morning, and overcast by afternoon. Winds will gradually freshen this afternoon before becoming quite strong overnight. Highs near 13 C.

TONIGHT will become wet and windy, although rainfall amounts will be modest, 5 to 10 mm in general, perhaps less near east coast. Lows near 7 C and winds southwest 50 to 70 km/hr.

FRIDAY will turn partly cloudy after the rain clears east by mid-morning, and it will then stay quite windy all day with another interval of rain by evening west, overnight east. Highs 11 to 14 C and winds west-southwest 50 to 80 km/hr by afternoon.

SATURDAY will be windy with occasional rain and embedded thunderstorms possible, with locally strong wind gusts and hail possible with the inland western counties most at risk. Lows near 10 C and highs near 13 C, winds southwest veering to west 60 to 100 km/hr. Rainfalls 10-20 mm.

SUNDAY will continue very unsettled with further rain or showers likely (5-15 mm), a bit cooler with temperatures in the range of 8 to 12 C.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy, breezy with isolated showers. It may become very windy or even stormy on the west coast by evening, or overnight into Tuesday, depending on timing of events (see outlook). Temperatures on both Monday and Tuesday will be in the 9 to 12 C range.

The OUTLOOK is dependent on the eventual track of the remnant low of Epsilon which has managed to become a major hurricane near Bermuda overnight (cat-3). The models are generally suggesting it will move steadily northeast and swerve to the north, performing a loop south of Iceland. This will ramp up winds over Ireland but the main risks of severe weather might come from secondary lows that form in the circulation around the decaying former hurricane as the jet stream looks like it will be dropping back south during that loop event. Therefore while Monday night or Tuesday could be quite windy and wet, even more active weather events could come along later in the week around Thursday 29th and Saturday 31st.

My local weather on Wednesday was pleasant although quite cold, with sunny intervals and highs near 7 C. By early evening it had already fallen below freezing under clear skies. We are expecting a light snowfall (possibly just traces to 2 cm) then more clear, cold weather to follow.
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23-10-2020, 08:37   #5796
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Friday, 23 October, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 23 to 29 October 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal, mostly due to milder than average overnight readings.
-- Rainfall will be at least near normal if not slightly above, to 50 per cent above in some western counties.
-- Sunshine will be 50 to 75 per cent of normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will become partly cloudy after the rain clears east this morning, with a few residual showers mostly in Ulster and north Connacht, and it will be quite windy all day with another interval of rain by evening west, overnight east. Highs 11 to 14 C and winds west-southwest 50 to 80 km/hr by afternoon.

TONIGHT will become very windy with rain (10-20 mm) and southwest winds of 70 to 110 km/hr, with temperatures steady in the 8-10 C range, rising to about 12 C before dawn in Atlantic coastal counties.

SATURDAY will be windy with occasional rain and embedded thunderstorms possible, with locally strong wind gusts and hail possible with the inland western counties most at risk. Lows near 10 C and highs near 13 C, winds southwest veering to west 60 to 100 km/hr. Rainfalls 10-20 mm.

SUNDAY will continue very unsettled with further rain or showers likely (5-15 mm), a bit cooler with temperatures in the range of 8 to 12 C. Winds southwest to west 50 to 80 km/hr.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy, breezy with isolated showers. There may be a break in the unsettled weather briefly during the mid-day hours, but it will be quite windy and wet by evening and overnight into Tuesday morning. Lows near 5 C and highs near 12 C.

TUESDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy and windy with passing showers, winds southwest 70 to 110 km/hr, and temperatures steady near 9 or 10 C.

The OUTLOOK for later next week is unsettled, with strong winds at times, and temperatures generally near or slightly above 10 C.

My local weather on Thursday was cloudy and cold with traces of light snow, accumulating on nearby hills but not right around my location, with a high of only 2 C. Hurricane Epsilon meanwhile is tracking north to the east of Bermuda, back down to a cat-1 storm now, and heading for the central Atlantic by the weekend. The forecast models continue to spin its remnants around south of Iceland with secondary lows developing in its wake and bringing intervals of unsettled weather for Ireland later next week. Longer term models show potential for yet another hurricane to form in the western Atlantic by early November -- this one would be Zeta, the last name used in 2005 (when it appeared just before New Years Day 2006).
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24-10-2020, 06:27   #5797
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Saturday, 24 October, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 24 to 30 Oct 2020

-- Temperatures will average about one degree above normal values, this mainly due to milder than average overnight readings, as daytime highs will be average or even a bit below.
-- Rainfall will total close to normal values although could be 25-50 per cent above in some western counties.
-- Sunshine will average only 50 to 75 per cent of normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will continue quite windy, with squally showers moving east this morning, followed by partial clearing but further showers and isolated thunderstorms by mid-day and afternoon in moderate to strong southwest winds of 70 to 110 km/hr. Highs 12 to 15 C, mildest in southeastern counties. About 10-20 mm rainfalls expected.

TONIGHT will be blustery and turning cooler with occasional rain, lows 6 to 8 C.

SUNDAY will be windy and rather cool with intervals of rain, more frequent in western counties where 5-10 mm is expected. Highs 10 to 12 C.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy and more settled with only isolated showers until rain arrives in the evening. Winds more moderate from west backing southwest and increasing to strong by evening. Lows near 6 C and highs near 11 C.

TUESDAY will be windy with occasional showers and risk of some thunder or hail, winds southwest 70 to 110 km/hr at times, temperatures steady 8 to 10 C.

WEDNESDAY will also be rather blustery with occasional showers and highs near 10 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY are currently looking rather mild with outbreaks of rain that could become heavy at times, and moderate to strong south to southwest winds, highs 12 to 14 C.

The pattern shows little signs of change with the Atlantic quite dominant well into November.

My local weather on Friday produced heavy snow locally, with 20 cms on the ground by mid-afternoon, and temperatures close to zero C. This is part of a large-scale arctic outbreak across western Canada that has the prairies well below freezing after snowfalls there earlier. We are expecting a gradual clearing trend and very cold temperatures for several days.

Hurricane Epsilon update -- no changes from yesterday's guidance, still expected to loop around west of Ireland and south of Iceland by Tuesday with its most direct impact on Ireland coming by Wednesday as the decaying centre after several loops and spins may arrive in coastal Connacht, but in a much weaker form than currently.
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25-10-2020, 06:47   #5798
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Sunday, 25 October, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 25 to 31 Oct 2020

-- Temperatures will average near normal to 1.0 deg above normal values.
-- Rainfall will average near normal to 25% above normal values.
-- Sunshine will average 75 per cent of normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly to mostly cloudy, with best chance for any sunny breaks in midlands, east and south. Showery rain will be fairly widespread at times, with longer intervals of steady rain possible in some western counties. Moderate southwest winds 50 to 80 km/hr. Highs 11 to 13 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy and breezy with showers continuing, lows near 6 C.

MONDAY will be somewhat less unsettled with longer dry intervals but still some occasional shower activity and moderate westerly winds, increasing late in the day and backing to southerly. Highs 11 to 14 C.

MONDAY NIGHT into TUESDAY will bring an interval of very windy and wet conditions as a front pushes in ahead of the remnant low of Hurricane Epsilon. That low will take another day or two to reach Ireland after it loops around in the Atlantic, but this initial wave may be its strongest blast as the low will be much weaker within two days when it does arrive. So watch for some gusts to about 110 km/hr and 10-20 mm of rain with some marginal improvements possible later Tuesday as the front pushes further east. Temperatures will be steady near 10 or 11 C.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will see secondary waves of the decaying phase of Epsilon, and a named storm is possible, whether the relevant met services decide to stick with "Epsilon" or give it a different name, the general idea would be that it is the last stages of Epsilon's complex evolution, with more wind and rain and fairly mild temperatures since the flow will be strong southwesterly, 12 to 14 C is possible, and 15-30 mm rainfalls.

Towards the end of the week there could be a brief break before yet another series of lows comes across the Atlantic. These may be triggered by the life cycle of the next tropical system now "Tropical Depression 28" and about to become Tropical Storm Zeta near western Cuba. This will push through the Gulf of Mexico then the southeast U.S. and lows will then redevelop early next week off the New England coast and head across the Atlantic. It looks like one or two fairly strong lows may develop out of this and arrive in Ireland in the first week of November. By the way, yet another tropical storm possibility exists on maps for the second week of November and that one (which looks like it would stay in the tropical latitudes of central America) would be "Eta." We didn't get that far into the Greek alphabet in 2005 but the additional storm added to that year after the season ended means that our "Eta" will be the 28th named storm as was "Zeta" of 2005, so in some ways to break into totally uncharted territory, we need to get past Eta and congratulations if you know the name of that storm (I would need to look it up, I know there's an omicron somewhere down the road if we keep this up, as well as both Mu and Nu, which I would find amusing.

What I didn't find amusing was the mid-January chill and appearance outside here with 25 cm of snow on the ground, a clear blue sky and a bit of blowing snow when the wind picked up, with the temperature at mid-day only minus 2 C, pretty much an all-time record for cold and snow here in October (as it has been in various other places in British Columbia; snow falling on fully leafed trees has caused some power outages in some areas). At midnight here it is clear and -8 C. This is roughly 10-15 degrees below normal for this location. I'll try to get a picture posted with the next forecast.
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Yesterday, 06:48   #5799
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Monday, 26 October, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 26 Oct to 01 Nov 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal values with a peak around Thursday.
-- Rainfall will average 50 per cent above normal, once again peaking around Thursday.
-- Sunshine will average 50 per cent of normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be somewhat less windy than recent or coming days, although the break may be marginal for western counties with southwest winds 40-70 km/hr there. Rather frequent showers near Atlantic coasts but many of these will die out before making it too far across the inland counties, so some longer bright spells further east. Highs about 12 C.

TONIGHT will become very windy with intervals of moderate to heavy rain, 5-15 mm likely and 25 mm in a few spots (Connemara and higher parts of Kerry for example). Winds peaking around 70-110 km/hr south to southwest in the early morning hours. Lows near 10 C.

TUESDAY will continue quite windy with a gradual moderation, and the rain will taper off to showers and these will become more confined to western coasts eventually. Highs near 12 C.

WEDNESDAY will be windy with occasional rain, more frequent and sustained in western counties. Winds west-southwest around 70-100 km/hr. Highs near 10 C.

THURSDAY will become milder with occasional rain, highs near 14 C. Moderate southwest winds 50-80 km/hr.

FRIDAY will be windy with rain or showers, highs near 12 C, winds southwest 70-110 km/hr.

SATURDAY will also be windy with some severe gusts possible during a frontal passage, southwest to west 70-110 km/hr with risk of even higher gusts in exposed Atlantic counties. Temperatures steady near 10 C then slowly falling later in the day to around 5-7 C.

The OUTLOOK is for further intervals of rain and wind, although some guidance is beginning to suggest a more settled trend may develop with high pressure closer to Ireland as the jet stream lifts a bit to the north. Not really sold on this yet, but worth tracking. Epsilon is no longer a tropical system but a powerful post-tropical low east of Newfoundland now. The guidance continues as before with a loop to the west of Ireland and south of Iceland followed by eventual arrival of the remnant low in either Ulster or western Scotland by Wednesday. Meanwhile Zeta has formed near the Yucatan and will be tracking into the Gulf of Mexico over the next few days, possibly reaching marginal cat-1 hurricane intensity at some point. After that, it's Eta, Theta, Iota and Lambda, all names never used before (if in fact they are used in 2020).

My local weather was sunny with a few passing clouds and very cold again with highs no better than -2 C after some record-breaking cold overnight lows below -12 C. The snow has settled to about 10-15 cm now, probably melting slightly from the warm ground underneath more than anything else.
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Today, 07:31   #5800
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Tuesday, 27 October, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS -- Increasingly mild, continued rather wet and mostly cloudy for the next week, more settled weather may appear in the week after that.

FORECAST (discussion) -- Going blog format today, it's interesting to note that remnant low of Epsilon has stalled out south of (western) Iceland at about 56N 28W with a central pressure of 942 mbs. It's fortunate that this powerful low remained that far out to sea, as winds close to its centre are probably well in excess of 120 km/hr.

As things stand, the initial frontal band associated with the former hurricane has now passed through most of Ireland except for east Ulster, and has moved on across the Irish Sea into western Britain. Only about 3-5 mm of rain was reported with it in most places, somewhat heavier looking (around midnight) on radar in parts of western Connacht.

We will spend the rest of the day in a partly cloudy and continued rather windy southwesterly flow with more vigorous looking bands of showers indicated on satellite imagery heading into western counties mid-day and crossing the country this afternoon and evening. Highs will reach about 12 to 14 C with winds southwest 50-80 km/hr and a few higher gusts possible later on again. However, for some parts of the east and south, there will also be some reasonably good dry intervals and a bit of sunshine at times.

The southwest flow continues all day tomorrow with a new low approaching from the central portions of the Atlantic, having formed up south of Newfoundland today. This one will come a bit closer than Epsilon which after today will be gradually weakening and filling up around Iceland. By about Wednesday night the new Atlantic low (which could possibly get a name of its own) will be the dominant feature and will be pumping up some subtropical moisture and warmth. Temperatures could rise to 15 to 17 C in some parts of the south and inland southeast by Wednesday night into Thursday, with south to southwest winds 70 to 100 km/hr expected, marginal for wind warnings but expect perhaps a yellow alert for both wind and rain by Wednesday afternoon through Friday.

The mild southwest flow will continue all day Thursday and to some extent on Friday with a bit of dry slot crossing the country as the first low heads on towards Norway, and the remnant low of Zeta having merged with a low further north by Friday comes rapidly into play for the weekend. This will lead to a second round of wind, mild temperatures and rain lasting through most of Saturday (31st). Hurricane Zeta is currently crossing the Yucatan Peninsula, will be making a landfall near Mobile, Alabama mid-week and its remnants will emerge into the Atlantic around Virginia on Friday. It could even briefly regain tropical storm status there while racing east in a strong jet stream. The merged low including a trough that is currently in my part of the world heading east, will all be consolidating into a fairly strong Atlantic low due to pass Donegal Bay Saturday night. But there may be a somewhat separate low remaining in the complex to the south that brings an interval of heavy rain to the southeast counties of Ireland on Friday night and Saturday morning, with the main centre of low still quite distant in the Atlantic at that point. The rain from the Atlantic system will be heavier by afternoon and evening, so it could turn into a two-part rainfall event in some parts of Ireland. Temperatures will stay quite mild through all of this, 12 to 15 degrees, only falling off to any extent by Sunday morning in a fresher westerly flow. Winds will be peaking again late Saturday near 110 km/hr in exposed coastal areas, then dropping off to a more moderate 50-70 km/hr on Sunday; however, some southeastern counties will only have a short interval of stronger winds as the first low will have a weak circulation of its own acting somewhat against the flow of the parent low.

Eventually, the circulation will calm down somewhat by the first part of November, and higher pressure over Europe may begin to play a role, with the possibility of some night frosts returning, but this won't be a wintry situation, just a typical late autumn anticyclonic interlude with light southeast to east winds at times, and perhaps a few dry days in a row as a distinct change in the pattern. This does not look to have a very long life span and it will probably be back to Atlantic domination at some point within a week of any such lull in the disturbed weather.

My local weather on Monday was overcast and remained quite cold, barely scraping above zero for a high. There is a bit of light sleety precipitation as low pressure tracks north of us and begins to bring in milder Pacific air that will eventually return our frosty temperatures back to more normal values and melt our rather frozen 10-15 cm snow cover (at least at my elevation, I think the hills may remain snow covered now).
M.T. Cranium is offline  
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