Offseason 2021 - Trades, Free Agency, QB Carousel

el Fenomeno · 18-02-2021 9:30pm

I would say if the Colts aren't on track for the playoffs, they won't let Went hit 75%.

Worst scenario is Wentz uninspiring and they fall short in the last week or two after he gets his 75%. They're then down a 1st round pick and left with a question mark at QB still.

Foxtrol · 18-02-2021 9:51pm

el Fenomeno wrote: »

I would say if the Colts aren't on track for the playoffs, they won't let Went hit 75%.

Worst scenario is Wentz uninspiring and they fall short in the last week or two after he gets his 75%. They're then down a 1st round pick and left with a question mark at QB still.

I agree to a point. That might be their mindset but it is hard to see that playing out easily, aside from Wentz being injured for part of the early season. Given the Colts' performance the last few years, their roster plus likely additions, and their division it'll take something dramatic for them to be out of the playoff picture with 4 games to go to be able to pull him.

In your worst case scenario the Colts also still on the hook for $15m on Wentz the following season. They have the cap space now but that'll likely start to shrink fast very soon with many stars moving off their cheap deals. A wasted year with Wentz while they are so cheap would be a killer for them.

Shedite27 · 18-02-2021 10:12pm

Think 90% of fans think Wentz is broker, but Reich who traded for him will know him better than anyone having worked with him at Philly. He must see something

The_Honeybadger · 18-02-2021 10:57pm

Shedite27 wrote: »

Think 90% of fans think Wentz is broker, but Reich who traded for him will know him better than anyone having worked with him at Philly. He must see something

Yeah he is probably not as bad as what we saw last season, but equally he is not as good as what we saw in 2017. Could go either way but I like the landing spot for him, it’s probably as good as he could realistically have hoped for.

He needs some stability, get some weapons around him through the draft, he will have a good offensive line and a decent defence so there should be no excuses.

@Foxtrol that’s a good point about their cap. We keep hearing about all this money they have but that insane 2018 draft class they had are all eligible for second contracts now. Nelson and Leonard will want to reset the market at their positions and Smith is one of the best RT’s in the league. That roster is going to get expensive quickly.

letowski · 18-02-2021 11:23pm

I think the condition attached to the 2022 2nd round pick is purely for injury protection. I don't think it has anything to do with Wentz's form. The Colts are going to competing for a playoff spot next year, even if Wentz is mediocre, its never ideal to change your starting QB down the stretch when your in contention for the playoffs. Its pretty much a 2022 1st round pick.

It must be noted though that Wentz is probably the best option for the Colts going forward, looking at it holistically. There isn't a starting QB available on the FA market and maybe only Darnold available via trade. Chris Ballard can't go into a draft where its perfectly possible Lawernce, Fields, Wilson and Lance all go in the top 5. Realistic options at QB for the Colts were very scarce on the ground.

eagle eye · 19-02-2021 12:00am

How is anybody paying for Wentz? I'd be looking for picks to take him we all.lnie the Eagles were in cap.hell.

19-02-2021 12:17am

eagle eye wrote: »

How is anybody paying for Wentz? I'd be looking for picks to take him we all.lnie the Eagles were in cap.hell.

Eagles didn't save anything from trading Wentz

trebor28 · 19-02-2021 9:04pm

Apparently wentz and pederson weren't on speaking terms for most of the season.

Sounds about right now when you look at it.

eagle eye · 19-02-2021 9:15pm

Ivy Better Rumba wrote:

Eagles didn't save anything from trading Wentz

How does that work? They trade a player, his contract goes with him, it's way before the deadline. What am I missing?

The_Honeybadger · 19-02-2021 9:28pm

eagle eye wrote: »

How does that work? They trade a player, his contract goes with him, it's way before the deadline. What am I missing?

I think he means that they don’t save much on 2021 because of the dead cap charge. All the bonus money they spread out when he signed his new deal accelerates in to 2021 due to the trade making the cap charge roughly the same as if he was still on the roster for the year.

He will be off the books next year

19-02-2021 9:53pm

The_Honeybadger wrote: »

I think he means that they don’t save much on 2021 because of the dead cap charge. All the bonus money they spread out when he signed his new deal accelerates in to 2021 due to the trade making the cap charge roughly the same as if he was still on the roster for the year.

He will be off the books next year

Correct the dead cap means they are essentially paying a 5th of the cap this coming season to a player that's not there

D9Male · 19-02-2021 9:59pm

Yeah, they take a hit up front, but get his toxic contract off the books thereafter.

Win for the Eagles. It was going to be difficult to get him back on track and they did surprisingly well in the trade.

But on the other hand I can see what Indy are thinking. Philly eating the signing bonus means that the contract is bad, but not terrible. And they didn't have any realistic alternatives. Picking 21 so all the good ones will likely be gone. And they weren't going to have sufficient resources to make a run at Wilson, Watson or even Carr. Wentz was dirt last season, but average to good other seasons. They have a very good roster, and this is the last year before many of their top players roll off rookie contracts.

paulie21 · 19-02-2021 10:07pm

Eagles releasing DeSean Jackson. Seems to be a clear out in Philly

19-02-2021 10:29pm

paulie21 wrote: »

Eagles releasing DeSean Jackson. Seems to be a clear out in Philly

There will be a few more alshon, malik jackson and 4-5 other relatively big names have to go just to get us under the cap

Itssoeasy · 20-02-2021 2:27am

paulie21 wrote: »

Eagles releasing DeSean Jackson. Seems to be a clear out in Philly

Not remotely surprised. Jason peters and probably Zack ertz will be out the door. I’m not that upset if there’s a clearing of the drift wood from the roster. Yes, next season may not be fun because of it but there needs to be a serious change in attitude and performance after last season.

VillaMad · 01-03-2021 6:52pm

JJ Watt going to Arizona. That was definitely unexpected.

01-03-2021 6:53pm

Turns out he wasn’t leaving Houston to win a Super bowl after all.

Foxtrol · 01-03-2021 6:58pm

ReginaldSmythV wrote: »

Turns out he wasn’t leaving Houston to win a Super bowl after all.

Seems like a really weird move for both sides. Cardinals had loads of holes even before the guys they're likely to lose in FA and Watt isn't coming cheap, eating through most of their cap space.

EDIT: To clarify, it is not weird at all from Watt's side if he was just going wherever offered him most.

paulie21 · 01-03-2021 7:01pm

Details

https://twitter.com/SportsCenter/status/1366446386259111936?s=19

The_Honeybadger · 01-03-2021 7:25pm

That’s a lot of money for a 32 year old with his injury history, I thought $10m a year was around his ceiling. They will sell lots of shirts I suppose but from a football / salary cap point of view I don’t think this is great for the Cardinals

eagle eye · 01-03-2021 7:28pm

Somebody stupid making decisions in Arizona. Insane giving Watt that money at his age and coming off two relatively ordinary seasons.

thomond2006 · 01-03-2021 7:59pm

Arizona will go nowhere as long as Kingsbury is there.

cosatron · 01-03-2021 9:28pm

Crazy money for Watt. 23m guaranteed.

ShyMets · 01-03-2021 10:19pm

cosatron wrote: »

Crazy money for Watt. 23m guaranteed.

Great deal for Watt though

Itssoeasy · 01-03-2021 10:32pm

Mad money for Arizona to be paying wyatt but if someone was offering me 23 million guaranteed I’d take it. He’d be stupid to turn it down.

I see that Alex smith will be done in Washington.

01-03-2021 11:05pm

ShyMets wrote: »

Great deal for Watt though

Duno a bit if sb chasing would have done the legacy no harm

Foxtrol · 01-03-2021 11:52pm

cosatron wrote: »

Crazy money for Watt. 23m guaranteed.

I don't think it is that crazy for him, just crazy for a team that has so many holes and didn't have much space to begin with

el Fenomeno · 02-03-2021 1:25am

Even the way he announced it on twitter was cringey. JJ Watt is insufferable and up his own hole, and the most cringeworthy character in the league, which is an astonishing achievement in an NFL landscape that includes Russell Wilson.

cosatron · 02-03-2021 3:48pm

el Fenomeno wrote: »

Even the way he announced it on twitter was cringey. JJ Watt is insufferable and up his own hole, and the most cringeworthy character in the league, which is an astonishing achievement in an NFL landscape that includes Russell Wilson.

hard to beat russell and his magic water.

Foxtrol · 02-03-2021 8:59pm

cosatron wrote: »

hard to beat russell and his magic water.

Not sure which medical claim was more mental - the magic water or when a player claimed that their CTE was 'fixed'.

el Fenomeno · 02-03-2021 11:51pm

Foxtrol wrote: »

Not sure which medical claim was more mental - the magic water or when a player claimed that their CTE was 'fixed'.

I dare say anyone who listens to Rob Gronkowski for medical advice deserves what's coming to them.

I'd rather ask Tyreek Hill for parenting advice.

AbusesToilets · 03-03-2021 1:45am

el Fenomeno wrote: »

Even the way he announced it on twitter was cringey. JJ Watt is insufferable and up his own hole, and the most cringeworthy character in the league, which is an astonishing achievement in an NFL landscape that includes Russell Wilson.

He can be quite over bearing, but he has also done serious charity work in Houston. Good with the bad. I'm surprised he chose Az, would've figured he'd chase a ring.

Kyles Van Noy and Rudolph also released, mayhap BB double dips in that demographic.

Foxtrol · 03-03-2021 4:41pm

AbusesToilets wrote: »

He can be quite over bearing, but he has also done serious charity work in Houston. Good with the bad. I'm surprised he chose Az, would've figured he'd chase a ring.

Kyles Van Noy and Rudolph also released, mayhap BB double dips in that demographic.

It would make a lot of sense to bring back VanNoy with the likely high number of new pieces due to the rebuild they'll be going through and how much experience he has with the team.

He is the exact type of profile of a player that could get low balled this year - good but not great, not much upside, and in a non-highly valued position. It will leave a lot of guys on one year deals - though for once I'm not sure how enticing the Patriots will be for that type of player who wants a big payday the following year, they'll likely need to offer a longer term, less team friendly deal to get them (which they can after paying their cap price last year).

paulie21 · 04-03-2021 7:49pm

Big Ben signs new deal with Steelers for 2021 season

Foxtrol · 04-03-2021 8:13pm

paulie21 wrote: »

Big Ben signs new deal with Steelers for 2021 season

Steelers didn't have many options but I expected a lot more than just a $5m pay cut by him to stay around.

It looks like they're creating more space by adding a dummy year but keeping him costs in total ~$36m over the next 2 years, even if he only plays in 2021.

The_Honeybadger · 04-03-2021 10:56pm

I’m a little surprised Ben wanted to come back tbh, roster is about to be gutted in free agency, they are heading in to 2-3 years of rebuilding, and they have one of the toughest schedules in the league next year. I don’t see this retirement tour going very well.

BonnieSituation · 04-03-2021 10:59pm

The_Honeybadger wrote: »

I’m a little surprised Ben wanted to come back tbh, roster is about to be gutted in free agency, they are heading in to 2-3 years of rebuilding, and they have one of the toughest schedules in the league next year. I don’t see this retirement tour going very well.

The cash certainly focussed his mind anyway.

The_Honeybadger · 04-03-2021 11:29pm

BonnieSituation wrote: »

The cash certainly focussed his mind anyway.

He has already made over $200m, I doubt money is the motivation, I could be wrong of course. My guess is that he doesn’t want that Cleveland game to be his last, trouble is they can’t put the team around him now, holes everywhere, poor draft position, no cap space etc.

BonnieSituation · 05-03-2021 12:22am

The_Honeybadger wrote: »

He has already made over $200m, I doubt money is the motivation, I could be wrong of course. My guess is that he doesn’t want that Cleveland game to be his last, trouble is they can’t put the team around him now, holes everywhere, poor draft position, no cap space etc.

Perhaps, but he will literally do nothing else ever again. He won;'t coach, he won't be a pundit... Another tríocha would pad out the lifestyle.

Wasn't his cap hit incredibly prohibitive if he was cut anyway for you guys?

The_Honeybadger · 05-03-2021 12:37am

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Perhaps, but he will literally do nothing else ever again. He won;'t coach, he won't be a pundit... Another tríocha would pad out the lifestyle.

Wasn't his cap hit incredibly prohibitive if he was cut anyway for you guys?

$22m in dead money if he retired because of his original signing bonus and a restructure, he is playing for $14m this year, with most of that kicked in to 2022 when he almost certainly retires via another signing bonus.

I know it got ugly for him towards the end of the year but he was clearly playing hurt and they had no run game at all to lean on. He was pretty good all year, especially in the redzone. If they can get him a running game and keep him upright it might not be a total disaster this year. They have a lot of work to do though.

BonnieSituation · 05-03-2021 12:47am

The_Honeybadger wrote: »

$22m in dead money if he retired because of his original signing bonus and a restructure, he is playing for $14m this year, with most of that kicked in to 2022 when he almost certainly retires via another signing bonus.

I know it got ugly for him towards the end of the year but he was clearly playing hurt and they had no run game at all to lean on. He was pretty good all year, especially in the redzone. If they can get him a running game and keep him upright it might not be a total disaster this year. They have a lot of work to do though.

It wasn't even a total disaster last year. Bar the meltdown in the first Quarter of WC game against the Browns the season was one of over achievement.

Either way, is this not the draft to grab his replacement?

The_Honeybadger · 05-03-2021 1:38am

BonnieSituation wrote: »

It wasn't even a total disaster last year. Bar the meltdown in the first Quarter of WC game against the Browns the season was one of over achievement.

Either way, is this not the draft to grab his replacement?

Anybody worth drafting will be gone by the time they pick and they have too many holes to trade up and burn draft capital. It’ll have to wait another year I would think, unless somebody falls unexpectedly.

What will the Broncos do at 1.9? I see a lot of mocks have them taking a CB, I would have thought they’d be moving on from Lock

BonnieSituation · 05-03-2021 1:51am

The_Honeybadger wrote: »

Anybody worth drafting will be gone by the time they pick and they have too many holes to trade up and burn draft capital. It’ll have to wait another year I would think, unless somebody falls unexpectedly.

What will the Broncos do at 1.9? I see a lot of mocks have them taking a CB, I would have thought they’d be moving on from Lock

I'm still hoping against hope that it will be the Texans drafting at 1.9.

The_Honeybadger · 05-03-2021 1:58am

BonnieSituation wrote: »

I'm still hoping against hope that it will be the Texans drafting at 1.9.

I don’t see it, albeit he’d be a great fit in Denver with all those young receivers

BonnieSituation · 05-03-2021 2:06am

Oh absolutely.

But I need to have something to hold onto to take me through these post-SB times.

We're in a weird spot, we will never get a better chance to bag someone of his quality at this point in a career.

But the value placed on draft picks by some GMs is so goddam high it breaks my brain.

Some of my fellow Broncos on reddit are gas thinking that he's not worth a haul and that we should persevere with Drew...

We won a SB in 2016... and then what? This has been the most excruciating period of my life supporting the Broncos.

Mortgage 2028 for a few playoff runs.

---

From a Watson POV, he would be mad to stay in the AFC never mind come to the AFCW.

Want a ring? Go to the NFC. Simples.

eagle eye · 06-03-2021 12:27pm

The_Honeybadger wrote:

Anybody worth drafting will be gone by the time they pick and they have too many holes to trade up and burn draft capital. Itâ€™ll have to wait another year I would think, unless somebody falls unexpectedly.

There's a lot of QB's with a lot if potential in this draft. Obviously some won't work out but that goes for the guys that'll go at the top of the draft too.
My favourite QB in this draft is Mac Jones because I think he has a very high football iq and enough tools to be successful.
You've also got Track, Mond and Newman who all could work out. There's not much in my estimation between Kyle Trask and what rookie of the year Justin Herbert showed coming out if college.
Herbert had a 66.8 completion percentage throwing for 3471 yards with 32 tds and 6 ints.
Trask had a 69.8 completion rate throwing for 4283 yards with 43 TDs and 8 ints.
You could argue that Trask has been more impressive as he played in the SEC.
Trask is projected as a second rounder.

The_Honeybadger · 06-03-2021 12:46pm

eagle eye wrote: »

There's a lot of QB's with a lot if potential in this draft. Obviously some won't work out but that goes for the guys that'll go at the top of the draft too.
My favourite QB in this draft is Mac Jones because I think he has a very high football iq and enough tools to be successful.
You've also got Track, Mond and Newman who all could work out. There's not much in my estimation between Kyle Trask and what rookie of the year Justin Herbert showed coming out if college.
Herbert had a 66.8 completion percentage throwing for 3471 yards with 32 tds and 6 ints.
Trask had a 69.8 completion rate throwing for 4283 yards with 43 TDs and 8 ints.
You could argue that Trask has been more impressive as he played in the SEC.
Trask is projected as a second rounder.

Cheers eagle eye I don’t watch college football at all so I don’t know much about the prospects except what I see in the mock drafts etc. I know there’s potentially a few good ones but lots of teams looking for QB’s, even outside the top 10 Bears, Pats, Steelers, Saints all need one.

Foxtrol · 06-03-2021 5:28pm

eagle eye wrote: »

There's a lot of QB's with a lot if potential in this draft. Obviously some won't work out but that goes for the guys that'll go at the top of the draft too.
My favourite QB in this draft is Mac Jones because I think he has a very high football iq and enough tools to be successful.
You've also got Track, Mond and Newman who all could work out. There's not much in my estimation between Kyle Trask and what rookie of the year Justin Herbert showed coming out if college.
Herbert had a 66.8 completion percentage throwing for 3471 yards with 32 tds and 6 ints.
Trask had a 69.8 completion rate throwing for 4283 yards with 43 TDs and 8 ints.
You could argue that Trask has been more impressive as he played in the SEC.
Trask is projected as a second rounder.

Judging college QBs against each other by their stat lines couldn't be a worse way to do an analysis, so it is no wonder it resulted in that terrible comparison.

Trask and Herbert couldn't be more different prospects:
- Herbert was a star athlete, whereas Trask barely hits the minimum to be an NFL QB (and that is quite a low bar)
- Herbert had no weapons, whereas Trask will likely have 2 of his main targets go in the top 40 picks
- Herbert had terrible coaching, whereas Trask's OC was just snapped up into the NFL

Any of the 3 you mentioned could become starters (from the people I trust Mond is the most likely of them) but like every year, each tier you go down the less likely you are for the QB to be a success when another pick at a different position is much more likely to 'hit'.

Trying to equate Trask with the 6th pick from last year and best performing rookie is utter nonsense.

eagle eye · 06-03-2021 5:51pm

Foxtrol wrote:

Trying to equate Trask with the 6th pick from last year and best performing rookie is utter nonsense.

Another insult.

My comparison is based on the eye test. I've watched both play many times.

I'm not comparing the LA Chargers QB with Trask, I'm comparing the Oregon Ducks QB with him.
The stats are very much in favour of Trask but I didn't say he was better than him, I compared them. As regards their work in the pocket they are very similar.
Herbert has better wheels for sure but he doesn't use them that often and he certainly didn't at Oregon.
You are in my opinion the clueless one in this conversation. I don't ever remember seeing you post in the college football threads so I'd guess you don't watch college football and are just going off stats.

Foxtrol · 06-03-2021 6:41pm

eagle eye wrote: »

Another insult.

My comparison is based on the eye test. I've watched both play many times.

I'm not comparing the LA Chargers QB with Trask, I'm comparing the Oregon Ducks QB with him.
The stats are very much in favour of Trask but I didn't say he was better than him, I compared them. As regards their work in the pocket they are very similar.
Herbert has better wheels for sure but he doesn't use them that often and he certainly didn't at Oregon.
You are in my opinion the clueless one in this conversation. I don't ever remember seeing you post in the college football threads so I'd guess you don't watch college football and are just going off stats.

How is calling an opinion nonsense an insult?

My points above were all related to Herbert the Oregon QB - he had terrible coaching and no weapons. Context matters when looking at players but even more so for QBs, which seems to be a consistent issue with you regarding how you assess QBs.

The difference in athleticism between the two goes far, far beyond having wheels. Trask's arm is barely NFL level while Herbert's was always incredibly strong - here he is throwing 62 yards flat footed while at Oregon, whereas I've seen Trask struggle with getting balls to the numbers and nearly every deep throw floats.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r-gG_g_vFPQ&ab_channel=NFLSeason

I'm not sure how I'm the clueless one, when Herbert was a consensus early 1st round pick by nearly every person that earns a living analyzing the draft and since draft season kicked off Trask hasn't been getting near even the tail end of the 1st among that same group. Do you throw out these QB 'hot takes' each year hoping one day a certain one will hit that you'll be able to hang your hat on? Your hit rate isn't great.

Offseason 2021 - Trades, Free Agency, QB Carousel

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