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Snow watch until Sunday 24th (N,W,SW most at risk)

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    #62
    thatsmighty
    Registered Users Posts: 53 ✭✭thatsmighty


    We are all stuck at home anyway ...


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    #63
    screamer
    Registered Users Posts: 6,133 ✭✭✭screamer


    We’re a bunch of weather junkies this time of year....
    I’m in the snow zone but wondering if there’s any chance that if it does snow will it stick around given the saturated ground......


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    #64
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,505 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Great the pub run. We need drunken charts now more than ever...


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    #65
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,505 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    48-574UK.GIF?18-18

    Rating: 4 pints/10

    GFS (P)

    45-574PUK.GIF?18-18

    5 pints/10


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    #66
    Davaeo09
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,220 ✭✭✭Davaeo09


    Is it edging "slightly" more north as you hoped for? Looks that way right? even if its only a few miles each run :D


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    #67
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,505 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    It's still on. Arpege has pushed things a bit further north this evening as well. Let's see if the trend continues.

    Little changes upstream make all the difference.


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    #68
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    It's still on. Arpege has pushed things a bit further north this evening as well. Let's see if the trend continues.

    Little changes upstream make all the difference.

    You'd swear those models didn't exist if you watch Aidan McGivern's latest UKMO forecast
    Basically the RAIN clears us early wenesday
    Only snow on the occlusion by then is up in Scotland
    150mm RAIN on the Welsh mountains


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    #69
    Danno
    Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    AuntySnow wrote: »
    You'd swear those models didn't exist if you watch Aidan McGivern's latest UKMO forecast
    Basically the RAIN clears us early wenesday
    Only snow on the occlusion by then is up in Scotland
    150mm RAIN on the Welsh mountains

    I wouldn't place much value on the precip type the UKMO place over the Irish Republic. The precipitation forecast can be hit and miss for here at times.


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    #70
    red_bairn
    Registered Users Posts: 2,342 ✭✭✭red_bairn


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    ..
    just to remember there is a risk of flooding over the next 36 hours across north Leinster, Connaught and south Ulster in particular.

    I'm in Naas. Should I consider buying a canoe to collect my daughter from the creche?


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    #71
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Danno wrote: »
    I wouldn't place much value on the precip type the UKMO place over the Irish Republic. The precipitation forecast can be hit and miss for here at times.

    They've none at all tho!
    Precip gone by wenesday morning


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    #72
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,505 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    AuntySnow wrote: »
    They've none at all tho!
    Precip gone by wenesday morning

    Could be worse. You could be crying in to your cocoa in the afternoon :P

    3834_rrs2.png


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    #73
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,505 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    red_bairn wrote: »
    I'm in Naas. Should I consider buying a canoe to collect my daughter from the creche?

    Unless Naas is located in one of the aforementioned areas then probably not...:)


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    #74
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    AuntySnow wrote: »
    You'd swear those models didn't exist if you watch Aidan McGivern's latest UKMO forecast
    Basically the RAIN clears us early wenesday
    Only snow on the occlusion by then is up in Scotland
    150mm RAIN on the Welsh mountains

    That's fairly accurate imo. Those hatched areas on the Meteociel charts are just a "risk" of snow and by definition are only areas "where other factors, such as vertical profiles, should be analysed to determine the actual risk of snow". They show where precip could fall as snow over at least high terrain. No guarantee to lower levels. "In no case should the model be taken literally".
    De même, les hachures en hiver sur la carte, sont pratiques car elles ciblent les zones à analyser pour prévenir le risque de neige. Mais en aucun cas on ne peut se contenter d’une lecture littérale du modèle, il faudra ensuite analyser le profil vertical de la masse d’air pour voir si effectivement des précipitations peuvent se produire sous forme de neige.


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    #75
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,505 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    No one is taking them literally.

    They are the quickest way to get across to onlookers where a risk exists. Incidentally they are also usually highly accurate these days in any case.


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    #76
    Rougies
    Registered Users Posts: 2,674 ✭✭✭Rougies


    I've always found the Arpege model to be pretty accurate with their precip rate/type charts at close range (<24 hrs). It's still too far out but I'm sure many of us in the east would bank this!


    ZrjeSDD.png


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    #77
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Yes it's all theoretical
    If it does snow,it's going to be sloppy slop
    Might take my 5km trip up to the croghan windmills wenesday for the crack
    The public road there rises to 1000ft asl
    The coillte Lane reaches to about 1600ft about 7kms inland
    What should I expect up there?


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    #78
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Rougies wrote: »
    I've always found the Arpege model to be pretty accurate with their precip rate/type charts at close range (<24 hrs). It's still too far out but I'm sure many of us in the east would bank this!


    ZrjeSDD.png

    Yeah that's in theory a snapshot of a moving target too
    I'd imagine if it was accurate, then 30 minutes later,the precip coming down from the higher terrain would turn the rest of that coastal strip pink


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    #79
    Spanish Eyes
    Registered Users Posts: 15,905 ✭✭✭✭Spanish Eyes


    Won’t be nice having a walk in lashing rain.. but hopefully no gales to add to the misery.

    I’m no expert, but enjoy the enthusiasm of the weather junkies here. Am not expecting snow at all. But plenty of rain. Dublin South.


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    #80
    Mount Vesuvius
    Registered Users Posts: 269 ✭✭Mount Vesuvius


    Hill snow and a wet mess on latest HARMONIE

    harmonieeur40-42-44-3_jkj2.png


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    #81
    kittyn
    Registered Users Posts: 366 ✭✭kittyn


    Mount Vesuvius wrote: »
    Hill snow and a wet mess on latest HARMONIE

    harmonieeur40-42-44-3_jkj2.png


    I am in the pink ;) admittedly I am up a decent height


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    #82
    Rougies
    Registered Users Posts: 2,674 ✭✭✭Rougies


    Yeah of course it's all theoretical and a wet mess is the best we can hope for below 400m. Some local areas might get a nice surprise while others rainy disappointment, regardless of what the models show. At least it's "something" to watch amid the endless gloom.


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    #83
    Tyrone212
    Registered Users Posts: 1,570 ✭✭✭Tyrone212


    Any idea what altitude the highest house would be in the South East? Highest town village is 251m.


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    #84
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,125 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Tyrone212 wrote: »
    Any idea what altitude the highest house would be in the South East? Highest town village is 251m.

    Highest peak would be Mount Leinster.


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    #85
    Donegal Ken
    Registered Users Posts: 427 ✭✭Donegal Ken


    Ukv showing up to 75mm over higher parts of Galway by the end of Tuesday. There will be some big flooding in places.


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    #86
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,505 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Aye, right to draw attention to the flooding potential over the next 12 to 24 hrs. Hopefully nothing disruptive to anyone but accumulations in excess of 50mm for some places is going to cause some water logging and elevated water levels in rivers.

    On the snow potential ICON has shifted the system further north again for Wednesday which is what we need to keep seeing to improve prospects for snow across more of Leinster. Be interesting to see if the rest continue that trend.


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    #87
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,505 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    iconeu_uk1-1-38-0.png?19-04

    Lovely. It will be worth the ups and downs if it works out something like this.


    GFS is good as well. Arpege same. GFS Para run as well.

    39-574PUK.GIF?19-0

    Hope this all isn't reversed in the morning :D nite!


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    #88
    Tyrone212
    Registered Users Posts: 1,570 ✭✭✭Tyrone212


    Ecm shows snow accumulating in Donegal later today 1.6 inches highest total shown and a dusting for lower areas. Shows snow accumulating later Wednesday then for the SE. Max total for Wicklow 2.6 inches.

    Isolated areas of Sleet showing up on the radar across parts of Donegal and Derry now. Summits probably taking a hit.


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    #89
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,358 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Looks like it may snow on the Isle of Man ...

    (from morning forecast on met.ie)

    Wednesday night: Rain along eastern coasts at first, with some sleet and snow on high ground in the Irish Sea.


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    #90
    Nqp15hhu
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    Tyrone212 wrote: »
    Ecm shows snow accumulating in Donegal later today 1.6 inches highest total shown and a dusting for lower areas. Shows snow accumulating later Wednesday then for the SE. Max total for Wicklow 2.6 inches.

    Isolated areas of Sleet showing up on the radar across parts of Donegal and Derry now. Summits probably taking a hit.

    I am going to drive up to 400 metres later this afternoon and see if it is snowing.

    Otherwise maybe some snow showers for us on Thursday.


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    #91
    Nqp15hhu
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    Rain is to my south.. not doing anything


This discussion has been closed.
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