Property Market 2018

Henbabani · 15-03-2018 7:07am

When we can expect to see CSO data for January/February?

The_Conductor · 15-03-2018 8:05am

Henbabani wrote: »

When we can expect to see CSO data for January/February?

We're a little behind schedule- sometime next week would be reasonable I guess. I imagine we'll see a continuation of the Dublin slowdown- possibly radiating outwards in a more pronounced fashion- with the bulk of national growth accounted for with staggering run-away growth in regional locations. I also imagine we'll see a lid on Galway becoming apparent (which is inevitable- prices in some areas there are the beat of D4/D6 prices).

Part of the problem is- lots of people, including the politicians and the media- have a vested interest in the party going on. Saying otherwise- is tantamount of treason. And if the party does end- the byline will be- 'well even a broken clock is right twice a day'. Its the sort of situation where you can't win- and even if you are right- you still can't win.

Despite the abject and very obvious shortages in property- we now have the situation where there are increasing numbers of properties in West Dublin in new developments- not being sold (and this is before we have the likes of Clonburris SDZ coming onstream)- and more tellingly- the average length of time to sell a property on DAFT is drifting upwards at an increasing pace.

If I had a property to sell- I'd be racing to get rid of it at this point, whether or not that boat has sailed- remains to be seen.

Sentiment- has firmly changed- yes, we still have staggering supplyside issues- which are affecting the market in an appalling manner- however, this change in sentiment hasn't filtered down (obviously) to the property retail sector (yet)- with the exception that for the first time in a long time- there are new properties on the market in Co. Dublin- with no obvious buyers.

Bob24 · 15-03-2018 8:27am

The only give 12 months figures (not month/month), but some days for January here: http://blog.myhome.ie/2018/03/14/residential-property-prices-up-12-5-in-the-year-to-january/

Bob24 · 15-03-2018 8:30am

And for reference the January figures they are basing this on: http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexjanuary2018/

Brego888 · 15-03-2018 8:59am

Is there really new property not selling in West Dublin while in other parts of Dublin people are still queuing for days for some new developments?

The_Conductor · 15-03-2018 10:50am

Brego888 wrote: »

Is there really new property not selling in West Dublin while in other parts of Dublin people are still queuing for days for some new developments?

Not in large volumes- however, there are apparently 28 units still available in Shackleton Park on the Newcastle Road- that's just one development (and there are possibly another 20k units going up there with a fast track planning procedure (Clonburris). West Dublin- looks like its going to be one hell of a mess before long- its bad enough already (apparently one person committed suicide rather than accept a social housing unit in Balgaddy)- its going down the road of Tallaght from the early 80s. The local Gardaí are terrified to enter some estates after dark. I don't have anything against the area- I grew up here- and live here with two young children- the whole area though is a car crash in slow motion. The icing on the cake is- with the SDZ (Strategic Development Zone) designation- there is no consultation with locals, there is an instruction that the development is going ahead- and there are no mechanisms to appeal the planning or make representations to councillors or the Minister. Citywest looks like its going to be similar- only thankfully they have the Luas- so at least their public transport should be reasonable- whereas the general Lucan area is largely reliant on private transport- as the public transport options (which does include a high frequency bus route and a train station) are already at maximum capacity and gridlocked for hours every day).

A car-crash in slow motion- is probably the best way to describe it.

Alkers · 15-03-2018 10:52am

The_Conductor wrote: »

apparently 28 units still available in Shackleton Park on the Newcastle Road-

What sort of units are they? I've seen examples of 3-beds in phase two of developments have large queues for them on launch day despite there being 4 and 5 beds still available from phase 1.

The_Conductor · 15-03-2018 11:05am

Simona1986 wrote: »

What sort of units are they? I've seen examples of 3-beds in phase two of developments have large queues for them on launch day despite there being 4 and 5 beds still available from phase 1.

Obviously the higher demand units will have sold like hotcakes- these are the dregs that the developer will have to price appropriately if they intend to shift them.

Henbabani · 15-03-2018 2:39pm

so i'm trying to understand the data released today, we're still at another 12% increase this year?

Claw Hammer · 15-03-2018 2:52pm

Henbabani wrote: »

so i'm trying to understand the data released today, we're still at another 12% increase this year?

No that was the increase last year.

Henbabani · 15-03-2018 3:00pm

Claw Hammer wrote: »

Henbabani wrote: »

so i'm trying to understand the data released today, we're still at another 12% increase this year?

No that was the increase last year.

yeah but i saw the change in January said 0.9% which means, if i understand it right. that we again going for 12% this year.

The_Conductor · 15-03-2018 4:08pm

Henbabani wrote: »

yeah but i saw the change in January said 0.9% which means, if i understand it right. that we again going for 12% this year.

Not necessarily.
If you read the commentary- the greatest increases in prices- are now in the west of Ireland- and the highest increases in price in Dublin are in apartment prices.

Prices- outside of Dublin rose by 17% in the 12 months to the end of Jan- and less than 9% in Dublin- for an overall rise of about 12.4%.

Dublin prices are at 89.9% of their peak prices- whereas the rest of the country is at a little over 70%

A lot of the price increases are being driven by prices outside of Dublin- and in Dublin- the larger component of increases- is runaway apartment prices (which were accounted for by a few massive developments owned by two of the REITs- and are in the stats- because of the stamp duty declared on them).

As the saying goes- the devil is in the detail.

Looks like the bulk of price increases- are now outside of Dublin- however, apartment prices which had not recovered to the same extent as house prices in Dublin- are now playing catch-up.

The whole picture is skewed by a few large unusual transactions involving apartments in Dublin- and damn thin volumes of everything else. The data also has more caveats associated with it- than enough- including a 'data smoothing' technical arrangement- that the CSO see fit to include a 22 page description of.

I'd describe the data as 'indicative' and suggest it be taken under advisement and viewed as indicative- rather than definitive in nature.

The CSO also say that the way stamp duty is paid 40 days in arrears- means the Jan and Feb figures are hypothetical- which is one of the reasons they use 'data smoothing'.............. I like hard factual information- and 'yes' or 'no' answers- any information that requires a 22 page document to explain how its derived- actually annoys me more than anything else.

NyOmnishambles · 15-03-2018 5:08pm

Anecdotal evidence time

A small 1 bed apartment in Dublin City Center D1/D7 bought in 2005

3 years ago it was worth less than 30% of its 2005 price

Last year worth about less than 65% of its 2005 price

Currently sale agreed at 11% above the 2005 price and 8% above its asking price
I would guess that it would be worth more next year but that it should top out around then, the 2007 price was around 50% more than the 2005 price but I can't see them going that high again as that was insanity

draiochtanois · 15-03-2018 5:28pm

This post has been deleted.

The_Conductor · 15-03-2018 5:55pm

draiochtanois wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Just wait until interest rates start to creep upwards (long term rates already are)- once the overnight rates start to hurt- mayhem is going to ensue.

The only thing keeping the party going at the moment- is cheap money and a booming economy- exchequer figures are already raising some red flags in the Department of Finance (e.g. payroll taxes and excise on alcohol and tobacco- are all significantly lower than profiled).

We have a day of reckoning coming- and we're not prepared for it in the least.

theboringfox · 15-03-2018 6:06pm

draiochtanois wrote: »

I have switched to thinking that property prices have gone completely nuts:

Example:

https://www.daft.ie/cork/houses-for-sale/blackrock/62-woodvale-road-beaumont-blackrock-cork-1669650

It will probably sell for a good bit over asking and require another €80-100k to bring it up to spec

So €500,000 for a 3 bed semi in Cork

NUTS!

I think that will go for about asking. Cant see someone paying 80 to 100k over for it.

It's one of the dearest areas to buy in Cork so it's not reflective of a normal 3 bed Semi D doer upper in Cork.

Couple on 50k each can borrow 350k and afford it.

Agree though that it's mad how much it'll all cost after you've paid to do it up. I find that when I see average cost for house in Cork City. For prices quoted you are talking a doer upper

draiochtanois · 15-03-2018 6:19pm

This post has been deleted.

Greyian · 15-03-2018 6:22pm

The_Conductor wrote: »

Just wait until interest rates start to creep upwards (long term rates already are)- once the overnight rates start to hurt- mayhem is going to ensue.

The only thing keeping the party going at the moment- is cheap money and a booming economy- exchequer figures are already raising some red flags in the Department of Finance (e.g. payroll taxes and excise on alcohol and tobacco- are all significantly lower than profiled).

We have a day of reckoning coming- and we're not prepared for it in the least.

Just wondering if you have a source for the part highlighted in bold?

theboringfox · 15-03-2018 6:41pm

draiochtanois wrote: »

By a good bit I mean 20 - 25 k.

Extending, proper glazing, insulation, redecoration won't leave you a lot of change out of 80-100k

Sorry. Mis read that part. Yep could be right with that amount over asking.

ArnieSilvia · 15-03-2018 7:40pm

The houses in Lucan area are selling very well actually. We sold ours in one week for the price we wanted to get.

I would argue with The Conductor and say that Lucan is a good alternative. The new developments like Somerton, st Helens had people waiting overnight/on lists. The one estate that sells slowly is far from everything, hence people don't want it. Some houses like the ones along the railway have issues with potential noise so understandably people don't want them.

I think that people need to differentiate between house like ours and the run down junk or poor location.

Also, the location within Lucan area can differ - our house is close to schools and train station do commuting is easier. The same doesn't apply for many areas within same locality!

Our house had lots of interest but it is very well presented, almost new, a passive house so small bills, in walk in condition, upgrades, patio, even with furniture included - so the purchaser literally walks in with suitcases and can enjoy the house immediately.

Compare this with some of the houses that need work, have damp problems etc - yuck!

Another thing was that we didn't use the estate agent, saving us a lot of money.

We staggered the viewings so everyone had an hour to view the property thoroughly, we've shown every detail etc.
The feedback we were getting from viewers was that they were shocked with the presentation compared with the usual open days with estate agents.

Every viewer put an offer on the house which is telling a lot. We got a cash offer very close to the asking price which itself was set very high to avoid the dreamers without money.

The house was sold after quick bidding not to the highest bidder but to the people who we felt were most capable of closing the deal.

I personally feel that the prices will continue to grow, albeit at inflation rate. There will be no crash because the economy picked up in a different way compared to 2003- back then it was all about building houses and speculation, this time it's just normal jobs.

ross2010 · 15-03-2018 7:58pm

ArnieSilvia wrote: »

The houses in Lucan area are selling very well actually. We sold ours in one week for the price we wanted to get.

I would argue with The Conductor and say that Lucan is a good alternative. The new developments like Somerton, st Helens had people waiting overnight/on lists. The one estate that sells slowly is far from everything, hence people don't want it. Some houses like the ones along the railway have issues with potential noise so understandably people don't want them.

I think that people need to differentiate between house like ours and the run down junk or poor location.

Also, the location within Lucan area can differ - our house is close to schools and train station do commuting is easier. The same doesn't apply for many areas within same locality!

Our house had lots of interest but it is very well presented, almost new, a passive house so small bills, in walk in condition, upgrades, patio, even with furniture included - so the purchaser literally walks in with suitcases and can enjoy the house immediately.

Compare this with some of the houses that need work, have damp problems etc - yuck!

Another thing was that we didn't use the estate agent, saving us a lot of money.

We staggered the viewings so everyone had an hour to view the property thoroughly, we've shown every detail etc.
The feedback we were getting from viewers was that they were shocked with the presentation compared with the usual open days with estate agents.

Every viewer put an offer on the house which is telling a lot. We got a cash offer very close to the asking price which itself was set very high to avoid the dreamers without money.

The house was sold after quick bidding not to the highest bidder but to the people who we felt were most capable of closing the deal.

I personally feel that the prices will continue to grow, albeit at inflation rate. There will be no crash because the economy picked up in a different way compared to 2003- back then it was all about building houses and speculation, this time it's just normal jobs.

To say this time it's just normal jobs is very naive. Lots of those normal jobs were lost in the recession and even "safe" public sector jobs took a hit. So here we are with high prices to buy property and higher interest rates coming down the line. If anyone has a mortgage and finds it even a bit hard to pay now wait until interest rates rise and they can't make the payment.

mick2311 · 15-03-2018 10:07pm

ross2010 wrote: »

To say this time it's just normal jobs is very naive. Lots of those normal jobs were lost in the recession and even "safe" public sector jobs took a hit. So here we are with high prices to buy property and higher interest rates coming down the line. If anyone has a mortgage and finds it even a bit hard to pay now wait until interest rates rise and they can't make the payment.

Rate rises along aren't going to cause a price crash along. Job losses yes, interest rate rises no. The main restriction on mortgages these days are the 3.5 LTI and the LTV restriction NOT affordability. If someone is in the 3.5 LTI they are well going to be able to afford a rate hike.

Antidotal example: Couple buy house for 400k 50k deposit. Thats a mortgage of 350,000. So the couple have to earn 50k each so net take home is cira 6k a month They fix for 3 years at 2.6%. Monthly repayment somewhere round 1300 so if they dont overpay at all which wouldn't be wise and rates went to 7%(Highly unlikely to ever hit this level again especially in three years). Repayments for this couple are relatively affordable level of 2200 and this is an extreme worst case.

LirW · 15-03-2018 10:16pm

But what about job losses due to automation? Playing devil's advocate here but why are people putting themselves hundreds of thousands as debt around their necks even though it's predicted everywhere that a lot of jobs will be gone/shift to new fields, where plenty people will be too old then to successfully retrain or simply lose their jobs?
I honestly see this as a scenario that could probably cause a crisis in like 2 decades or so. While people will adapt and systems probably change, for people with mortgages it's gonna be a sh1tfest.

kippy · 15-03-2018 10:28pm

LirW wrote: »

But what about job losses due to automation? Playing devil's advocate here but why are people putting themselves hundreds of thousands as debt around their necks even though it's predicted everywhere that a lot of jobs will be gone/shift to new fields, where plenty people will be too old then to successfully retrain or simply lose their jobs?
I honestly see this as a scenario that could probably cause a crisis in like 2 decades or so. While people will adapt and systems probably change, for people with mortgages it's gonna be a sh1tfest.

What's the alternative?

LirW · 15-03-2018 10:30pm

As it stands people are looking away from a scenario that could be a major crisis. I don't wish it on anyone, but I hope in a decade or so people start to get realistic about it.
But I can't blame anyone, people need houses here and now and can afford it here and now.

ArnieSilvia · 15-03-2018 11:55pm

Global economy means that the days of job for life are gone.
This new reality requires effort, calculated risk and good planning and certainly can be done.
The key is to look at job from business perspective i.e. what's the long term prospect of working in certain industry and looking at bigger picture.

The key is to be ahead of everyone, like with anything else in life, the winner takes it all.

bigpink · 16-03-2018 7:51am

If people were downsizing is this the time to sell 1st half of this year?

The_Conductor · 16-03-2018 8:23am

bigpink wrote: »

If people were downsizing is this the time to sell 1st half of this year?

Demand would appear to be softening- and according to DAFT reports- it is taking longer to sell properties in Dublin than 12 months ago. However- prices are still increasing. If I was in the market to downsize- I'd be inclined to move sooner rather than later- and I'd also be inclined to sell first- put my stuff into storage- maybe take an extended break in Spain or Portugal- and come back next Autumn and buy then as a cash buyer. Thats just me. However....... Apartments in Dublin- have never been rising at the rate they're currently rising at- house prices have fallen back- apartment prices, not. So- you're looking at paying a higher price in a few months time- than you would now......

Traditionally this was managed with 'bridging finance' from a lender (aka a short-term loan to facilitate the purchase of one property while you were selling another). Unfortunately- bridging finance- has gone the way of the dodo.

Another alternate- if you've retired- would you consider upping sticks- and buying a nice property in the sun- and moving to Spain/Portugal- and enjoying yourself there? It has quite an appeal- and there is already a large Irish diaspora out there.

You have to decide what suits you- and what you can make happen. Its sometimes possible to time a sale and a purchase- but its ropey- and if anything goes askew- you could end up with a sale falling through- or nowhere to live. You want to avoid this- or alternatively- you could try to embrace it- and factor it into your equation.

The least stressful way of doing this- is outside of a chain- however, you're also more likely to pay extra in 6 months time- so there is a cost associated with it. If you're retired and downsizing- I'd suggest- go with the least stress option- and if I was retired and downsizing- I know exactly where I'd be downsizing to- and its over a thousand miles away from here!

awec · 16-03-2018 3:18pm

Got en email about the Kenler development in Sandyford village this morning.

Six houses total, cheapest house (the 3 bed terrace I presume) is €575,000. :pac:

The houses look nice in fairness, location isn't the worst. Sandyford Village is a bit odd, there's nothing in it really. No Spar/Centra type shop within walking distance.

I am curious as to who their target audience is with the prices. All houses outside the limits of the help-to-buy.

Cuddlesworth · 16-03-2018 5:43pm

awec wrote: »

Got en email about the Kenler development in Sandyford village this morning.

Six houses total, cheapest house (the 3 bed terrace I presume) is €575,000. :pac:

The houses look nice in fairness, location isn't the worst. Sandyford Village is a bit odd, there's nothing in it really. No Spar/Centra type shop within walking distance.

I am curious as to who their target audience is with the prices. All houses outside the limits of the help-to-buy.

Run out from the surrounding areas, where houses are un-achievable but they want to live close enough to where they grew up.

Property Market 2018

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