Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

LiamaDelta · 24-11-2020 12:38pm

kona wrote: »

If enough people are vaccinanted surely wed be at a point where the disease is managed?
I dont think a 100% uptake is needed its probably around 60 or 70?

Depends on the vaccine and the virus, but usually it's 90% or more. You have to account for people that may not be able to take it. If only 60 or 70% take it there would still likely be enough virus around that certain groups would not be able to partake in society as even a low prevalence would be too much for them to risk.

Captain_Crash · 24-11-2020 12:52pm

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Yeah, it's not discrimination. I suggest you read up on the grounds for illegal discrimination, you'll notice vaccine status isn't on that list.

But religion is, and there are countless religions which forbid vaccinations.

Again, personally I don't think its discrimination, but I do think were going to see some legal challenges to it.

EDIT: Apologies L1011, see your post now.

TRANQUILLO · 24-11-2020 12:52pm

It will be interesting to see how it pans out.

Imagine being a diamond or concierge member of an airlines loyalty scheme with years of continued custom to be told " mr murphy, you are not permitted to fly with us any more unless you put this in your body".

The Gay cake controversy is in the European courts now as the plaintiff feels his beliefs are being infringed upon.

What if someone doesnt believe in vaccinations or the severity of the virus as an existential threat ?

Also people are looking through the lens of this as a passenger flying into Australia.

What about the old LA to New York leg QANTAS used to fly or other open skies or fifth freedom flights if we talk about other airlines? Australian governmental preferences wouldn't apply there as its a US to US flight.

Or the old Air NZ London to LA route.

Can of worms no?

HTCOne · 24-11-2020 12:55pm

1123heavy wrote: »

My concern is for flight crew. I know myself and numerous others who do not want this vaccine. Will our employers say either we take it or we lose our jobs?

It'd be straight to the high court with that.

Depends if it is national legislation or not, IE will Australia make it mandatory to have received the vaccine to be allowed enter the country. The issue with Kuwait was that the country didn't recognise the existence of Israel, and as such staff could not accept Israeli passports. This was fine on flights to or from Kuwait itself because that was the law of Kuwait. Where they got caught was on the 5th freedom flights between LHR-JFK, where both countries recognised the State of Israel and therefore KAC were ruled to be discriminating. This is allegedly one of the reasons KAC moved the LHR stopover to Shannon. If say the UAE and UK do not bring in any rules about mandatory vaccination then pax will have a leg to stand on for Qantas 5th freedom flights between the 2, but not on flights to or from Oz if the country brings in vaccination requirements.

If the country of origin of the airline brings in legislation around vaccination, the airline employees will be obliged to follow it or potentially be in breach of contract.

trellheim · 24-11-2020 2:29pm

I can't see anyone batting an eye at a vaccination requirement if an airline imposes it , further I can see it being a requirement to hold travel insurance as well

It's an easy google to find mandatory polio vaccination requirements, for example. I'm not getting into the pros and cons of such a vaccine , merely pointing out there's plenty of backing in laws around the world for making it mandatory.

Blut2 · 24-11-2020 2:30pm

Theres also the issue of what if you've already had covid. If someone can prove that through having had a positive covid test, or positive antibody test, why should they be forced to pay for (and take) a vaccine to fly?

Given almost 60million people have had confirmed covid now, and plenty more have done positive antibody tests on top of that, I'd be curious to see how that argument would go against Qantas.

edit: theres also the fact that a huge % of the population in most countries is saying it won't take the vaccine:

In the US - only 38% would get a coronavirus vaccine if one became available. - https://www.acsh.org/news/2020/10/20/coronavirus-vaccine-no-good-if-people-won%E2%80%99t-take-it-15103

In France - A recent Ipos study found that just 54 percent of French people say they would get a Covid-19 vaccine -- https://www.france24.com/en/france/20201120-i-won-t-take-the-risk-france-leads-the-world-in-covid-19-vaccine-scepticism

In the UK - 36% of people in the UK said they were either uncertain (27%) or very unlikely (9%) to be vaccinated against the virus -- https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/10/will-enough-people-in-the-uk-take-the-covid-19-jab

etc. I'd question how many airlines will rule out 30-50% of potential customers.

Cookiemunster · 24-11-2020 2:32pm

Blut2 wrote: »

Theres also the issue of what if you've already had covid. If someone can prove that through having had a positive covid test, or positive antibody test, why should they be forced to pay for (and take) a vaccine to fly?

Given almost 60million people have had confirmed covid now, and plenty more have done positive antibody tests on top of that, I'd be curious to see how that argument would go against Qantas.

Immunity is not known to be permanent, so having had it doesn't mean you're immune to getting it again.

TRANQUILLO · 24-11-2020 2:33pm

Blut2 wrote: »

Theres also the issue of what if you've already had covid. If someone can prove that through having had a positive covid test, or positive antibody test, why should they be forced to pay for (and take) a vaccine to fly?

Given almost 60million people have had confirmed covid now, and plenty more have done positive antibody tests on top of that, I'd be curious to see how that argument would go against Qantas.

Not only that.....Which vaccine?

There are a few . Will they all be considered equal ? Are they all as cheap as each other?

If ticketmaster bring this in will the cost of vaccine be dearer than the gig you want to go to in whelans?

TRANQUILLO · 24-11-2020 2:40pm

Blut2 wrote: »

Theres also the issue of what if you've already had covid. If someone can prove that through having had a positive covid test, or positive antibody test, why should they be forced to pay for (and take) a vaccine to fly?

Given almost 60million people have had confirmed covid now, and plenty more have done positive antibody tests on top of that, I'd be curious to see how that argument would go against Qantas.

edit: theres also the fact that a huge % of the population in most countries is saying it won't take the vaccine:

In the US - only 38% would get a coronavirus vaccine if one became available. - https://www.acsh.org/news/2020/10/20/coronavirus-vaccine-no-good-if-people-won%E2%80%99t-take-it-15103

In France - A recent Ipos study found that just 54 percent of French people say they would get a Covid-19 vaccine -- https://www.france24.com/en/france/20201120-i-won-t-take-the-risk-france-leads-the-world-in-covid-19-vaccine-scepticism

In the UK - 36% of people in the UK said they were either uncertain (27%) or very unlikely (9%) to be vaccinated against the virus -- https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/10/will-enough-people-in-the-uk-take-the-covid-19-jab

etc. I'd question how many airlines will rule out 30-50% of potential customers.

There is definitely more nuance to the debate than decent citizens vs tin foil hat "Anti vaxxers". I think the discourse has been over simplified by a lot of people.

Blut2 · 24-11-2020 2:47pm

Cookiemunster wrote: »

Immunity is not known to be permanent, so having had it doesn't mean you're immune to getting it again.

As of November 16th there had only been 25 confirmed cases of reinfection globally. Not 25 thousand, or hundred. 25. Out of almost 60 million cases. Which given recorded cases started exploding 8+ months ago now we can fairly safely say immunity lasts at the very minimum 8 months - and increasing every day.

The immunity will definitely expire at some stage. But my point was more it has been proven to exist, and tens of millions of people now have it. So I'd question how an airline will justify discriminating against them by demanding they get a vaccine they clearly don't need?

Cookiemunster · 24-11-2020 4:07pm

Blut2 wrote: »

As of November 16th there had only been 25 confirmed cases of reinfection globally. Not 25 thousand, or hundred. 25. Out of almost 60 million cases. Which given recorded cases started exploding 8+ months ago now we can fairly safely say immunity lasts at the very minimum 8 months - and increasing every day.

The immunity will definitely expire at some stage. But my point was more it has been proven to exist, and tens of millions of people now have it. So I'd question how an airline will justify discriminating against them by demanding they get a vaccine they clearly don't need?

People who've had the virus are still expected to social distance, wear masks and even self isolate if they're a close contact of a confirmed case or have traveled from abroad.

It's not really a stretch to see how this will also apply to those people when it comes to vaccinations. As long as nobody knows how long immunity lasts, then everyone will be treated the same (no matter how miniscule the chances of reinfection may be).

snotboogie · 24-11-2020 4:19pm

Cookiemunster wrote: »

People who've had the virus are still expected to social distance, wear masks and even self isolate if they're a close contact of a confirmed case or have traveled from abroad.

It's not really a stretch to see how this will also apply to those people when it comes to vaccinations. As long as nobody knows how long immunity lasts, then everyone will be treated the same (no matter how miniscule the chances of reinfection may be).

Thats because a lot of those rules would be unenforceable if you made exceptions for people who have already been infected. Once a vaccine is rolled out to the population there is no way people will be still social distancing.

bk · 24-11-2020 5:00pm

TRANQUILLO wrote: »

but if they are vaccinated how can I infect them ?

Whats the point of them getting the jab then?

Some vaccines can stop you from getting the disease at all and thus passing it on, others work by only helping you get a less serious case of the disease (not ending up in hospital/ICU).

Flu vaccine is an example of the latter case, it is only 30% effective, yet it helps reduce ICU cases of flu by 80%.

We don't know yet which will be the case for the various different Covid19 vaccines. The oxford one shows some evidence that in can actually stop the spread, but more research is needed before they are sure on that.

Blut2 wrote: »

As of November 16th there had only been 25 confirmed cases of reinfection globally. Not 25 thousand, or hundred. 25. Out of almost 60 million cases. Which given recorded cases started exploding 8+ months ago now we can fairly safely say immunity lasts at the very minimum 8 months - and increasing every day.

Those are just the proven cases, it is believed to be far more common then that, it is just difficult to prove it to a scientific standard. The proven cases were where they still had samples from the original test (they usually don't), they then do even more in-depth tests then a regular PCR and finally they can only confirm it if the second case is a mutation that was different from the first result. It is all a pretty high bar to meet.

Given the nature of other corona-viruses it is very likely that natural immunity only lasts a few months and re-infection is likely.

I'm really surprised that folks on an aviation forum are surprised that countries and airlines are going to require vacation to enter!

There are many countries that require vaccines like yellow fever to enter. This is nothing new for the airline industry.

I'm certain most airlines and countries will require Covid19 vaccine to travel and enter, it will be the fastest way to get the airline industry back to normal and they certainly won't care about the feelings of uneducated and insane anti-vaxers.

bk · 24-11-2020 5:18pm

Hotblack Desiato wrote: »

Seems odd, but I'm not complaining!

Yeah, it sounds weird, but isn't unusual for this type of vaccine, the Oxford one basically uses a modified harmless adenovirus to help trigger your bodies immune response to the spike protein of SARS-Cov-2. It is likely that people are having a light immune response to the adenovirus, in addition to the spike protein, which then makes the response weaker to the second dose. Basically your body has become immune to the other part of the vaccine.

This isn't unusual at all for these sort of traditional vaccines and it is why part of the trials is to test different doses to see which has the best reaction.

TRANQUILLO · 24-11-2020 6:24pm

bk wrote: »

Some vaccines can stop you from getting the disease at all and thus passing it on, others work by only helping you get a less serious case of the disease (not ending up in hospital/ICU).

Flu vaccine is an example of the latter case, it is only 30% effective, yet it helps reduce ICU cases of flu by 80%.

We don't know yet which will be the case for the various different Covid19 vaccines. The oxford one shows some evidence that in can actually stop the spread, but more research is needed before they are sure on that.

Those are just the proven cases, it is believed to be far more common then that, it is just difficult to prove it to a scientific standard. The proven cases were where they still had samples from the original test (they usually don't), they then do even more in-depth tests then a regular PCR and finally they can only confirm it if the second case is a mutation that was different from the first result. It is all a pretty high bar to meet.

Given the nature of other corona-viruses it is very likely that natural immunity only lasts a few months and re-infection is likely.

I'm really surprised that folks on an aviation forum are surprised that countries and airlines are going to require vacation to enter!

There are many countries that require vaccines like yellow fever to enter. This is nothing new for the airline industry.

I'm certain most airlines and countries will require Covid19 vaccine to travel and enter, it will be the fastest way to get the airline industry back to normal and they certainly won't care about the feelings of uneducated and insane anti-vaxers.

i don't understand why peoples posts keep resorting to anti vaxxer and insane ad hominems.
For me this is a different situation. There is a sizeable cohort of society to who don't agree with masks, restrictions , lockdowns etc thats before even getting to mandatory vaccines. Ebola etc are dangerous for everyone.

This virus is so "deadly" that many people test positive who didnt even know they had it. Surely there is more nuance to the debate than trotting out tropes like "anti vaxxer".

My mother is 64 and she told me point blank that she is not getting it. She is by no means a conspiracy theorist or has she ever really displayed any strong opinions on anything for that matter. Now you have to take what im saying on trust as im just a faceless name on the internet but i know plenty of people who claim (maybe they will acquiesce) that they will not get the vaccine.

GT89 · 24-11-2020 6:30pm

What the hell have passengers on a plane who are vaccinated to fear of fellow passengers who are not vaccinated. You are vaccinated you are safe and not going to catch covid as you are vaccinated.

TRANQUILLO · 24-11-2020 6:39pm

Apparently the vaccines haven't been approved for under 18's and under 12's in some cases so there will be plenty of slimy covid spreading youths on the flight which will render the policy inconsistent anyway.

Lockheed · 24-11-2020 6:47pm

What on earth do any of these posts have to do with COVID and specifically the effect it has on the aviation industry? It seems to have become an echo chamber for people who are against getting the vaccine. Just take your ridiculous unbased opinions to the general COVID discussion forum where you can have a proper debate without hijacking what was quite an interesting thread..

TRANQUILLO · 24-11-2020 6:51pm

Lockheed wrote: »

What on earth do any of these posts have to do with COVID and specifically the effect it has on the aviation industry? It seems to have become an echo chamber for people who are against getting the vaccine. Just take your ridiculous unbased opinions to the general COVID discussion forum where you can have a proper debate without hijacking what was quite an interesting thread..

Because QANTAS are saying no vaccine, not allowed on board. It's incredibly relevant.

bk · 24-11-2020 6:51pm

TRANQUILLO wrote: »

Apparently the vaccines haven't been approved for under 18's and under 12's in some cases so there will be plenty of slimy covid spreading youths on the flight which will render the policy inconsistent anyway.

Many (but not all) of the vaccines do include children, including the Oxford one, so it will be a non issue, they can just take the vaccines that have been tested on children.

Also I assume all of the vaccines will eventually be trialled on kids, some vaccines have just gone with more limited trials, so that the trials can go faster. Another example of this is how the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines didn't test if it stopped the virus from spreading, while the Oxford one has looked at this. Just different focus.

Lockheed · 24-11-2020 6:53pm

TRANQUILLO wrote: »

Because QANTAS are saying no vaccine, not allowed on board. It's incredibly relevant.

So what, does your aging mother work for QANTAS or something?

TRANQUILLO · 24-11-2020 6:56pm

Lockheed wrote: »

So what, does your aging mother work for QANTAS or something?

No but the poster asserted that only the insane and anti vaxxer would be against it and i was just putting a personal slant on it imply that maybe there was more nuance to the debate.

If people were so fearful of this deadly ailment etc they wouldn't be out having pints on the street and in woodies every weekend.

What im trying to convey is that there is a contrary view to the pro vaccine ideology that isn't driven by conspiracy theories or tin foil hats.

Some people just don't feel this is necessary.

TRANQUILLO · 24-11-2020 6:57pm

Lockheed wrote: »

So what, does your aging mother work for QANTAS or something?

She works for EI by the way.

Well used to.

Lockheed · 24-11-2020 7:00pm

TRANQUILLO wrote: »

No but the poster asserted that only the insane and anti vaxxer would be against it and i was just putting a personal slant on it imply that maybe there was more nuance to the debate.

If people were so fearful of this deadly ailment etc they wouldn't be out having pints on the street and in woodies every weekend.

What im trying to convey is that there is a contrary view to the pro vaccine ideology that isn't driven by conspiracy theories or tin foil hats.

Some people just don't feel this is necessary.

Surely being anti vax just means that you won't take a vaccine? It is impossible to make a based and valid opinion against taking a vaccine without reading conspiracy theories and that's where people are coming from. If your mother doesn't want to take a vaccine sure, she can stay at home. Wouldn't like to be on a flight with her, but life goes on

TRANQUILLO · 24-11-2020 7:14pm

Lockheed wrote: »

Surely being anti vax just means that you won't take a vaccine? It is impossible to make a based and valid opinion against taking a vaccine without reading conspiracy theories and that's where people are coming from. If your mother doesn't want to take a vaccine sure, she can stay at home. Wouldn't like to be on a flight with her, but life goes on

I would have thought its a vehement refusal to take vaccine(s) plural of any kind.

I had MMR vaccine as a kid (no choice), malaria tablets . had a tetanus injection as a kid.

i have no particular inclination to get this vaccine. I think i had the virus in January but thats anecdotal. I work in Aviation borescoping engines so I fear ill be coerced into this based on the amount of travel I have to do .

At the moment im self employed (was laid off from a company in Dublin Airport this year) . I envisage if i get back into a company akin to the one i worked for they will make it very difficult for me to exercise free will in this decision going forward.

Lockheed · 24-11-2020 7:23pm

TRANQUILLO wrote: »

I would have thought its a vehement refusal to take vaccine(s) plural of any kind.

I had MMR vaccine as a kid (no choice), malaria tablets . had a tetanus injection as a kid.

i have no particular inclination to get this vaccine. I think i had the virus in January but thats anecdotal. I work in Aviation borescoping engines so I fear ill be coerced into this based on the amount of travel I have to do .

At the moment im self employed (was laid off from a company in Dublin Airport this year) . I envisage if i get back into a company akin to the one i worked for they will make it very difficult for me to exercise free will in this decision going forward.

I don't know where you got the idea that I cared about any of this, but I don't. If you travel a lot its your own duty to your fellow person to get yourself vaccinated. Any other stance on this is anti-vaccination. This includes your lack of inclination

TRANQUILLO · 24-11-2020 7:27pm

Lockheed wrote: »

I don't know where you got the idea that I cared about any of this, but I don't.

Eh , you quoted my post? So I had the courtesy to reply (without being a smart arse i might add).....

Thats how discourse normally goes.

snotboogie · 24-11-2020 8:11pm

TRANQUILLO wrote: »

i have no particular inclination to get this vaccine. I think i had the virus in January but thats anecdotal. I work in Aviation borescoping engines so I fear ill be coerced into this based on the amount of travel I have to do .

At the moment im self employed (was laid off from a company in Dublin Airport this year) . I envisage if i get back into a company akin to the one i worked for they will make it very difficult for me to exercise free will in this decision going forward.

Hotblack Desiato · 24-11-2020 8:24pm

I am a naturist. My employer makes it very difficult for me to exercise my free will in relation to the wearing of textiles going forward :pac:

You'll find airlines do that, too!

marno21 · 24-11-2020 8:35pm

Australia currently have very, very strict border controls. Australian citizens aren't finding it easy getting back into the country and have to pay to quarantine.

With that in mind, is it really a surprise that Australia (or just Qantas, their flag carrier) are pondering mandatory vaccination for travellers when they have been following a zero-Covid policy? If you don't like it, no one is making you fly.

HTCOne · 24-11-2020 10:59pm

The answer is simple. If an airline brings in a vaccine mandate, then if you don't get one, they won't let you on. Likewise if a country mandates the vaccine for entry (as countries have been doing for decades for various vaccines) then you aren't getting in. It is your choice whether to get the vaccine or not after weighing up all factors. If it gets me off this miserable rock and back travelling (and gets aircraft moving again and gets my fellow aviation professionals back to work and me back to full pay) then I'll take what I'm given.

Jack1985 · 24-11-2020 11:00pm

It'll be interesting to watch viewpoints sway, more freedom for the vaccinated and the opposite for those who refuse until this is sufficiently mitigated that it does not pose risk. When their close friends actually enjoy that freedom, you’ll see that swing in some percentage.

It's amazing to read the lack of acknowledgement of why we live longer, today. I'd rather not take medical advice on vaccinations from unqualified individuals or pilots frankly as demonstrated on this thread.

I have had my issues with Government and still do in how we dealt with what would have been safe travel that was scuppered (however small that may have been), I’m not a particular fan of the CMO and his commentary either. However, I’m fully behind our medics and the fantastic scientific achievement to date in relation to vaccines. I’m excited for the future with what mRNA technology can do for some of the most horrific aspects of human death that have affected us all in some way.

Some of the arguments are bat sh*t stuff, and some individuals are so invested in this they will propagate that vaccines are unsafe too. It and can be summarised by;

Cases rising? Still-low number of deaths.
Deaths rising? Lower % growth of the number of cases.
Cases plateaued? Zero growth is the same as zero cases

smurfjed · 25-11-2020 7:24am

I’m flying to a country in Africa this afternoon, I’m required to check the Health requirements for entering the country, in this case the list is long with Malaria, Polio, Yellow Fever, Chickenpox (Varicella)
Diphtheria-Tetanus-Pertussis, Flu (influenza), Measles-Mumps-Rubella (MMR), Hepatitis A and B, and typhoid.

So next year i would just expect this list to include COVID.

TRANQUILLO · 25-11-2020 8:52am

smurfjed wrote: »

I’m flying to a country in Africa this afternoon, I’m required to check the Health requirements for entering the country, in this case the list is long with Malaria, Polio, Yellow Fever, Chickenpox (Varicella)
Diphtheria-Tetanus-Pertussis, Flu (influenza), Measles-Mumps-Rubella (MMR), Hepatitis A and B, and typhoid.

So next year i would just expect this list to include COVID.

Some are afraid of everything on that list more than covid. I think thats some peoples point.

There is a sizeable section of society who think that the juice hasn't been worth the squeeze with this virus. Completely overblown.

donkey balls · 25-11-2020 11:40am

smurfjed wrote: »

I’m flying to a country in Africa this afternoon, I’m required to check the Health requirements for entering the country, in this case the list is long with Malaria, Polio, Yellow Fever, Chickenpox (Varicella)
Diphtheria-Tetanus-Pertussis, Flu (influenza), Measles-Mumps-Rubella (MMR), Hepatitis A and B, and typhoid.

So next year i would just expect this list to include COVID.

Had to do the same when going to the Himalayas back in the 90s get the jabs done and wait another few months for a booster jab, They then gave you a yellow book with all the jabs you received with the dates written in to.the book.
Did it again years later while travelling through South America I would have no problem if it was required post CV19 to have the jab in order to travel.

Blut2 · 25-11-2020 2:44pm

bk wrote: »

Those are just the proven cases, it is believed to be far more common then that, it is just difficult to prove it to a scientific standard. The proven cases were where they still had samples from the original test (they usually don't), they then do even more in-depth tests then a regular PCR and finally they can only confirm it if the second case is a mutation that was different from the first result. It is all a pretty high bar to meet.

Given the nature of other corona-viruses it is very likely that natural immunity only lasts a few months and re-infection is likely.

I'm really surprised that folks on an aviation forum are surprised that countries and airlines are going to require vacation to enter!

There are many countries that require vaccines like yellow fever to enter. This is nothing new for the airline industry.

I'm certain most airlines and countries will require Covid19 vaccine to travel and enter, it will be the fastest way to get the airline industry back to normal and they certainly won't care about the feelings of uneducated and insane anti-vaxers.

What? "just proven cases", "difficult to prove to a scientific standard"? What other standard would you have far reaching policy decisions be made on other than a scientific standard? "Believed" is not remotely acceptable. The scientific evidence on this is very clear - reinfection is extremely, extremely uncommon to date. The maths don't lie - 25 reinfections out of almost 60 million cases to date is not a real concern. Someone is about as likely to be hit by lightning, or win the lottery, as they are to be reinfected with covid19.

Other similar corona virii give an immunity of anywhere from 6 months to 2 years. Which, combined with the fact that covid19 reinfections aren't happening yet, and widespread testing began last March, very clearly points to immunity lasting at the minimum of 8 months. And increasing every day.

Anywhere up to 50% of the population in most of the developed world is currently saying they're not going to get a vaccine. And even the most optimistic vaccine estimates have only approx 30% of the world vaccinated by the end of 2021. Qantas might stick to their guns on this given Australian state policy probably will too, and so much of their traffic is Australia bound. But theres not a hope a US or EU airline will do likewise.

snotboogie · 25-11-2020 2:54pm

Blut2 wrote: »

What? "just proven cases", "difficult to prove to a scientific standard"? What other standard would you have far reaching policy decisions be made on other than a scientific standard? "Believed" is not remotely acceptable. The scientific evidence on this is very clear - reinfection is extremely, extremely uncommon to date. The maths don't lie - 25 reinfections out of almost 60 million cases to date is not a real concern. Someone is about as likely to be hit by lightning, or win the lottery, as they are to be reinfected with covid19.

Other similar corona virii give an immunity of anywhere from 6 months to 2 years. Which, combined with the fact that covid19 reinfections aren't happening yet, and widespread testing began last March, very clearly points to immunity lasting at the minimum of 8 months. And increasing every day.

Anywhere up to 50% of the population in most of the developed world is currently saying they're not going to get a vaccine. And even the most optimistic vaccine estimates have only approx 30% of the world vaccinated by the end of 2021. Qantas might stick to their guns on this given Australian state policy probably will too, and so much of their traffic is Australia bound. But theres not a hope a US or EU airline will do likewise.

The US will likely be vaccinated to herd immunity by the summer. Very good chance they make the same demands as Australia once they are. Where are you getting the 30% estimate from?

cson · 25-11-2020 6:31pm

The Government (& indeed the EU) should tie a stimulus to vaccination, say something like €250 for each dose. Dual benefit of encouraging uptake and providing cash to be spent domestically (would perhaps have to condition this to make sure Amazon UK didn't reap the benefit).

We'll see how many anti vaxxers there are then!

Widdensushi · 25-11-2020 6:52pm

cson wrote: »

The Government (& indeed the EU) should tie a stimulus to vaccination, say something like €250 for each dose. Dual benefit of encouraging uptake and providing cash to be spent domestically (would perhaps have to condition this to make sure Amazon UK didn't reap the benefit).

We'll see how many anti vaxxers there are then!

Take the soup

Blut2 · 25-11-2020 9:05pm

snotboogie wrote: »

The US will likely be vaccinated to herd immunity by the summer. Very good chance they make the same demands as Australia once they are. Where are you getting the 30% estimate from?

The Pfizer/ BioNTech vaccine is aiming for up to 1.3 billion doses by end of 2021 [1]
Oxford/AstraZeneca expect to produce up to 3 billion doses of the vaccine in 2021 [2]
Modern expect to produce up to 1 billion doses in 2021 [3]

Thats a total of 5.3 billion doses, enough for 2.7 billion people - out of our 7.8 billion+ global population. And thats all "up to" best case production scenarios, which are highly unlikely to work out. And that also doesn't include the lag in distribution time from production. If we end up at the end of 2021 with 2 billion people vaccinated that will be doing extremely well.

The US of all places will have probably the biggest popular resistance to any vaccination program. Only 58% of them as of this week currently say they'll get a covid vaccine, presuming they even had the option to. Well short of the number required for herd immunity.

[1] https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-conclude-phase-3-study-covid-19-vaccine
[2]https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/health-and-human-body/human-diseases/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker-how-they-work-latest-developments-cvd/
[3]https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/18/what-are-the-big-challenges-to-mass-producing-a-coronavirus-vaccine.html

HTCOne · 25-11-2020 10:20pm

Blut2 wrote: »

The Pfizer/ BioNTech vaccine is aiming for up to 1.3 billion doses by end of 2021 [1]
Oxford/AstraZeneca expect to produce up to 3 billion doses of the vaccine in 2021 [2]
Modern expect to produce up to 1 billion doses in 2021 [3]

Thats a total of 5.3 billion doses, enough for 2.7 billion people - out of our 7.8 billion+ global population. And thats all "up to" best case production scenarios, which are highly unlikely to work out. And that also doesn't include the lag in distribution time from production. If we end up at the end of 2021 with 2 billion people vaccinated that will be doing extremely well.

The US of all places will have probably the biggest popular resistance to any vaccination program. Only 58% of them as of this week currently say they'll get a covid vaccine, presuming they even had the option to. Well short of the number required for herd immunity.

[1] https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-conclude-phase-3-study-covid-19-vaccine
[2]https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/health-and-human-body/human-diseases/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker-how-they-work-latest-developments-cvd/
[3]https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/18/what-are-the-big-challenges-to-mass-producing-a-coronavirus-vaccine.html

The Russians and Chinese are doing their own vaccines and started vaccinating months ago so you can knock 1.5 billion people off your figures. The Russian vaccine reported 95% efficacy today. You can also take out all children.

We don't even really need to vaccinate everyone, get everyone over 65 or 75, or underlying health conditions, and the healthcare workers and we can relax a very large % of restrictions, if not all. Hopefully that's the shot in the arm (sorry) that the industry needs.

3d4life · 25-11-2020 10:33pm

Blut2 wrote: »

....The US of all places will have probably the biggest popular resistance to any vaccination program. Only 58% of them as of this week currently say they'll get a covid vaccine, presuming they even had the option to. Well short of the number required for herd immunity.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qeTiCMAngus

Summary of issues from around 13:20

Blut2 · 25-11-2020 11:05pm

HTCOne wrote: »

The Russians and Chinese are doing their own vaccines and started vaccinating months ago so you can knock 1.5 billion people off your figures. The Russian vaccine reported 95% efficacy today. You can also take out all children.

We don't even really need to vaccinate everyone, get everyone over 65 or 75, or underlying health conditions, and the healthcare workers and we can relax a very large % of restrictions, if not all. Hopefully that's the shot in the arm (sorry) that the industry needs.

The Russian and Chinese vaccines are still pretty suspect, they haven't published reliable data yet. And children can still spread the virus to others, they just don't tend to get seriously ill themselves.

Either way I wasn't making a point about the viability of the vaccines in terms of fighting the virus though - I was responding to the poster arguing airlines would require vaccination proof of all passengers soon. If only 30% of the world (at best) has been vaccinated in 13 months time, and most of them are older people who don't fly much anyway, it would be a very brave airline to require proof of vaccination before letting passengers board. That would involve ruling out potentially 70%+ of their own customers.

HTCOne · 25-11-2020 11:17pm

Blut2 wrote: »

The Russian and Chinese vaccines are still pretty suspect, they haven't published reliable data yet. And children can still spread the virus to others, they just don't tend to get seriously ill themselves.

Either way I wasn't making a point about the viability of the vaccines in terms of fighting the virus though - I was responding to the poster arguing airlines would require vaccination proof of all passengers soon. If only 30% of the world (at best) has been vaccinated in 13 months time, and most of them are older people who don't fly much anyway, it would be a very brave airline to require proof of vaccination before letting passengers board. That would involve ruling out potentially 70%+ of their own customers.

I was saying rule out children because there’s a good chance these vaccines won’t work on them such as why the flu vaccine for children (live virus)is totally different to the flu vaccine for adults (dead virus). I doubt most EU countries will mandate vaccination for entry seeing as the vaccines themselves are being sourced by the EU for distribution to member states. Once we get the majority of people who are ending up in hospital with the virus vaccinated, we can hopefully go back to normal in Europe prior to the young, healthy population receiving vaccinations. I would hope the US would take the same, more sensible approach.

Charles Babbage · 26-11-2020 12:32am

Blut2 wrote: »

The Russian and Chinese vaccines are still pretty suspect, they haven't published reliable data yet. And children can still spread the virus to others, they just don't tend to get seriously ill themselves.

Either way I wasn't making a point about the viability of the vaccines in terms of fighting the virus though - I was responding to the poster arguing airlines would require vaccination proof of all passengers soon. If only 30% of the world (at best) has been vaccinated in 13 months time, and most of them are older people who don't fly much anyway, it would be a very brave airline to require proof of vaccination before letting passengers board. That would involve ruling out potentially 70%+ of their own customers.

The Russian vaccine probably does work, it is a similar approach to the Oxford one, although the trials are not yet done in an adequate way. I would expect Russian and Chinese vaccines to also go to other non Western countries. And there are other projects, for instance Curevac should be approved early in 2021 and plan to produce 300m doses in 2021 and there are others. I would expect delays early in the year in production of vaccines generally, but enormous resources to ensure widespread production later in the year.

As for airlines, there will be a vaccine requirement internationally, even if only one third of people have been vaccinated that is as more than have a passport.

GT89 · 26-11-2020 12:54am

HTCOne wrote: »

I was saying rule out children because there’s a good chance these vaccines won’t work on them such as why the flu vaccine for children (live virus)is totally different to the flu vaccine for adults (dead virus). I doubt most EU countries will mandate vaccination for entry seeing as the vaccines themselves are being sourced by the EU for distribution to member states. Once we get the majority of people who are ending up in hospital with the virus vaccinated, we can hopefully go back to normal in Europe prior to the young, healthy population receiving vaccinations. I would hope the US would take the same, more sensible approach.

I hope your right. Personally I would gladly forgo a covid vaccine and stay in Europe.

ProfessorPlum · 26-11-2020 1:04am

smurfjed wrote: »

I’m flying to a country in Africa this afternoon, I’m required to check the Health requirements for entering the country, in this case the list is long with Malaria, Polio, Yellow Fever, Chickenpox (Varicella)
Diphtheria-Tetanus-Pertussis, Flu (influenza), Measles-Mumps-Rubella (MMR), Hepatitis A and B, and typhoid.

So next year i would just expect this list to include COVID.

Required v recommended.
While you may be required to check the list by your employer, and many vaccines may be recommended, there’s only one vaccine on that list that might be required for entry to the country you’re travelling to.
Im not implying that SARS-CoV-2 vaccine won’t become mandatory for many or most countries, but currently mandatory vaccination for travellers is rare, excepting travellers to (or from) some Central African and South American countries (for yellow fever)

Charles Babbage · 26-11-2020 1:11am

ProfessorPlum wrote: »

Required v recommended.
While you may be required to check the list by your employer, and many vaccines may be recommended, there’s only one vaccine on that list that might be required for entry to the country you’re travelling to.
Im not implying that SARS-CoV-2 vaccine won’t become mandatory for many or most countries, but currently mandatory vaccination for travellers is rare, excepting travellers to (or from) some Central African and South American countries (for yellow fever)

Vaccine requirements are now less common because diseases are less common. Covid is common.

cson · 26-11-2020 2:31am

GT89 wrote: »

I hope your right. Personally I would gladly forgo a covid vaccine and stay in Europe.

You'll be staying in Ireland without one chief, a COVID vaccination passport will be a thing next year imo.

L1011 · 26-11-2020 12:55pm

GT89 wrote: »

I hope your right. Personally I would gladly forgo a covid vaccine and stay in Europe.

Its quite likely that you'll only be able to get to the UK without one, if even.

Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

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