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capital growth limited risk

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  • #52
    westtip
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,282 ✭✭✭westtip


    Here is the updated results to date, bank is 5% down, not to concerned about that. I take a very cautious approach. Won't be dong anything until after the PIA. International break that is, a complete distraction and upsets the rhythm of domestic competitions. The most disappointing thing in these results was the loss of value in the AC Milan and Liverpool bets with the price drifts after posting them up, and not getting on Rangers at 1.12 this wkend. Real Madrid bet taught me once again don't bet on big clubs after international breaks too many stars suffering from jetlag and travel weariness, in particular clubs who have south american stars, that is a one long way to go and come back from in a few days just to play a football match, those guys are not functioning right until they have been back in Europe ten days. Those price drifts and not grabbing rangers at 1.12 cost about 2.5% of bank growth, these small margins make a difference at the end of the year. Anyway caution will continue to drive my thinking.

    Bet number selectinon/descriptive played advised advised stake pricen advised result P/L cumulative Bank start 1000
    1 Rangers v Dundee 12-Sep 11-Sep 50 1.19 1 9.5 9.5 1010
    2 Bayern v Schalke 18-Sep 11-Sep 52 1.16 1 8.3 17.8 1018
    3 Celtic v Livingstone 19-Sep 12-Sep 52 1.15 1 7.8 25.6 1026
    4 AC Milan v Shamrock 16-Sep 17-Sep 52 1.15 1 7.8 33.4 1033
    5 Helsinki v Turku 24-Sep 20-Sep 52 1.17 0 -52.0 -18.6 981
    6 Hoffenheim v Bayern 27-Sep 18-Sep 52 1.34 0 -52.0 -70.6 929
    7 Club Brugge v Cercle Brugge 27-Sep 26-Sep 50 1.25 1 12.5 -58.1 942
    8 helsinki v ROPS 27-Sep 27-Sep 50 1.11 1 5.5 -52.6 947
    9 Celtic v St Johnstone 04-Oct 04-Oct 50 1.45 1 22.5 -30.1 970
    10 Rangers v Ross couty 04-Oct 03-Oct 50 1.11 1 5.5 -24.6 975
    11 Bayern V Hertha 04-Oct 04-Oct 50 1.17 1 8.5 -16.1 984
    12 Real Madrid v Cadiz 17-Oct 17-Oct 50 1.25 0 -50.0 -66.1 934
    13 PSG v Dijon 24-Oct 23-Oct 49 1.1 1 4.9 -61.2 939
    14 Rangers v Livingstone 25-Oct 25-Oct 49 1.25 1 12.3 -48.9 951
    15 Benfica v Belenese 26-Oct 26-Oct 49 1.18 1 8.8 -40.1 960
    16 Liverpool V Midtjyland 27-Oct 25-Oct 49 1.13 1 6.4 -33.7 966
    17 Arsenal to bt Dundalk 29-Oct 29-Oct 49 1.12 1 5.9 -27.9 972
    18 Ajax 01-Nov 01-Nov 49 1.1 1 4.9 -23.0 977
    19 Benfica v Boavista 02-Nov 02-Nov 49 1.3 0 -49.0 -72.0 928
    20 man city v Olympiacos 03-Nov 03-Nov 49 1.23 1 11.3 -61 939
    21 Bodo Glimit 08-Nov 07-Nov 49 1.2 1 9.8 -51 949


  • #53
    westtip
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,282 ✭✭✭westtip


    Three shorties this weekend, and despite the return from internationals, these teams do not have an array of South American stars in their midst, I think these players will be truly knackered after playing on another continent this week, look out for poor tired performances for European clubs for South American stars this weekend. These three teams are not really affected by this factor.

    Bayern @1.14 BF v Werder Bremen.

    Red Bull Salzburg @1.18 v Sturm Graz

    Ajax @ 1.14 BF v Heracles

    with current bank the bet is €49 each to win.

    I don't do multiple bets this would pay 1.53 at these prices. They might form a useful foundation as acca bankers, anyone doing an acca this weekend add Rangers into these three at 1.35, however when you do an acca the prices will not be matched with other bookmakers. For example the 4 fold I have mentioned pays 1.71 on the Betfair Sportsbook (ie Paddy Power) but the individual prices on the xchange should pay an acca of 2.07, that is a huge % differential. You don't get the value prices in the accas is what I am saying! For a bit of "social betting" and fun, a fiver or a tenner maybe do it, but losses will be incurred in the long term because you lose the value. Be lucky.


  • #54
    westtip
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,282 ✭✭✭westtip


    Sometimes I am baffled by this, Bayern seem to have lost the plot, and actually could easily lost, As for Salzburg currently 0-3 down in the second half this is a day to forget. Had them before, need to be resilient in this game and take it on the chin, Hey ho.


  • #55
    Bambaata
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,112 ✭✭✭Bambaata


    I'm afraid you are going to meet such loses a lot more frequently that you would think. I hope all goes well for you but I have my reservations. Been following a group now that has opened my eyes to "value" and I dont see there being any or much value in 1x2 betting on big markets. Bookies have to price it wrong for you to leverage the value and on main leagues with large amounts of people betting on them the lines are generally fairly accurate meaning you cant win long term. You might catch early market rates but in the 1.1-1.3 or so range the risk is high as you need things to go as you expect, which in gambling is never easy.


  • #56
    westtip
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,282 ✭✭✭westtip


    Bambata you might be right I started posting these up just as an afterthought, might seize doing it from here, however I generally do back low price 1x2 and have found in the past ten years an average win ratio of about 80% betting 5% of bank you can hit some very long winning runs, that is when it kicks in to make money, I only lay out 5% of bank, the losses of the last the last few weeks are when a couple of loser clusters set you back, my bank has never fallen below 80% in a season and has shown profit in 9/10 seasons. The one losing season was a loss of 10% of bank. Ajax won today, in ten years I have never had a losing run of 3! so was sweating on that one. I might stop posting up, its a hassle to do it anyway, and just continue with what I do privately. Each to their own, thanks for your feedback. We are all on the same side in this battle!


  • #57
    ianburke
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 691 ✭✭✭ianburke


    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2054971966&page=4

    your style of betting is identical to well over 10 years ago when you abandoned that thread after 5 or 6 very very short price losers in a row. i'm not sure anything has changed. i would like to see you finish this thread and back up the claims that your'e making money, but i do understand it is a hassle having to post up all your bets.


  • #58
    Pkiernan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,310 ✭✭✭Pkiernan


    westtip wrote: »
    Here is the updated results to date, bank is 5% down, not to concerned about that. ]


    You probably should be concerned at being down 5% in a week.


  • #59
    westtip
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,282 ✭✭✭westtip


    Pkiernan wrote: »
    You probably should be concerned at being down 5% in a week.

    One losing bet will take me down 5%, that doesn't wildly concern me, one week is irrelevant in this game I look at it over the years.


  • #60
    westtip
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,282 ✭✭✭westtip


    ianburke wrote: »
    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2054971966&page=4

    your style of betting is identical to well over 10 years ago when you abandoned that thread after 5 or 6 very very short price losers in a row. i'm not sure anything has changed. i would like to see you finish this thread and back up the claims that your'e making money, but i do understand it is a hassle having to post up all your bets.


    My god a long time ago! Yes it might just be too much of a hassle, I did privately back Rangers as well today, they are looking good to make money on this season although it irks me to say it!


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  • #61
    ianburke
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 691 ✭✭✭ianburke


    we will miss this thread if it finishes early. i for one have enjoyed reading it and following the scores like a few other threads on here.

    backing these shorties on betfair, as opposed to the bookies, is certainly the way to go. the bookies clean up on them - you can't lose a fortune betting to sp on betfair long term but with the bookies it's a different story with the odds they offer.


  • #62
    Bambaata
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,112 ✭✭✭Bambaata


    I wish you well, just have my fears for your bankroll:D

    If you do contine to post i will be following and hope im proved wrong! Im not long gambling long myself, just about 16 months now but took the easy route and stumbled across a good group of guys i trust who have seen me right this since joining. I hope some day to have learned enough to try forge my own path, ive learned a lot from them and can appecitate how difficult it is to win in a venture thats typicially against you!


  • #63
    westtip
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,282 ✭✭✭westtip


    5% of bank this week on Juventus (1.16 BF) and Bayern (1.24 BF) in champions league. Pick ourselves up dust ourselves down and continue!


  • #64
    westtip
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,282 ✭✭✭westtip


    westtip wrote: »
    5% of bank this week on Juventus (1.16 BF) and Bayern (1.24 BF) in champions league. Pick ourselves up dust ourselves down and continue!

    Phew!! Now lets see Bayern do what they do best score a hatful before half time, not sure my heart can take anymore games like that Juventus one tonight, but hey thats part of the roller coaster.


  • #65
    sasta le
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,586 ✭✭✭sasta le


    westtip wrote: »
    Phew!! Now lets see Bayern do what they do best score a hatful before half time, not sure my heart can take anymore games like that Juventus one tonight, but hey thats part of the roller coaster.

    I was sweating on Juve too


  • #66
    sasta le
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,586 ✭✭✭sasta le


    Ive found the under goals market a good one to do


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  • #67
    westtip
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,282 ✭✭✭westtip


    For those actually following this the imaginery bank is now at 867. my advice is generally 5% of bank so you can gauge the stake from that basis,

    With the Bayern result last night bank is now 877 will post the table once every couple of weeks. What got me last night is that Bayern 1-0 up were still 1.30 on BF after they scored, remarkable opportunity to get stuck in. I am going back into the market this weekend, but won't post until Saturday. I am not too concerned about the hits taken on this series of posts in the past few weeks, by my own admission I have made a couple of errors, the problem with low odds betting is clusters of losers, you should never hit long losing runs and statistically you should on the reverse get winning runs that go for as long as 20 in a row. If I was going to play tonight it would be an away game, Rapid Vienna to beat Dundalk, truth is our domestic league is light years behind even the Austrian Bundeslige. I would imagine Rapid will win but with covid etc you just don't know what to expect these days.


  • #68
    westtip
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,282 ✭✭✭westtip


    Two simple ones today, Man City at home, they have shortened all week from 1.20 into 1.15 on BF, we may see a bit of drift to 1.17 before KO, but will put it down as 1.15, I took 1.19 on thursday. PSG to win tonight at 1.23 on BF they have drifted slightly in the week from a steady 1.20/1.21. Take the 1.23, personally I think they will come back to 1.21 at KO.

    5% bank both bets.

    If I had the balls I would put my entire bank on Ireland to beat Georgia in the rugby at 1.02 on BF, really it would be worth risking your entire bank to grow 2% in 80 minutes, even at 1.01 with some bookmakers its a value bet! If I was a bookmaker it would be a no offers market for me.


  • #69
    westtip
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,282 ✭✭✭westtip


    Holy Moley never seen Mbappe miss so many opps got to admit I got out of it when PSG went 2-1 up already banked a winner in Man City and went for damage limitation thank goodness but do you know what it won't put me off/


  • #70
    westtip
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,282 ✭✭✭westtip


    Atalanta 1.2 BF v Midjyland. 5% of bank


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