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capital growth limited risk

  • #1
    Registered Users Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭ westtip


    For a long time now I have felt the only way to bet on football is single win bets. Nothing fancy. So I am going to start putting up what I believe is a way to get a steady capital growth with limited risk from Football betting.

    The objectives are not huge, to grow the bank by about 10% to 15% per annum. Not to touch the bank at all in terms of pull downs or withdrawals. Investments will be limited and some gamblers may not like this approach, all bets are per the Betfair prices at the time of the post to keep it simple wins will be quoted before commission. If you want to follow me you are basically investing €1000 as if it was in a savings account.

    OK imaginary €1,000 bank to start with

    Bet 1: Rangers to win v Dundee Utd €50 at 1.19 on betfair
    Bet 2: Bayern to win v Schalke €50 to win at 1.16 on betfair


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Comments



  • westtip wrote: »
    For a long time now I have felt the only way to bet on football is single win bets. Nothing fancy. So I am going to start putting up what I believe is a way to get a steady capital growth with limited risk from Football betting.

    The objectives are not huge, to grow the bank by about 10% to 15% per annum. Not to touch the bank at all in terms of pull downs or withdrawals. Investments will be limited and some gamblers may not like this approach, all bets are per the Betfair prices at the time of the post to keep it simple wins will be quoted before commission. If you want to follow me you are basically investing €1000 as if it was in a savings account.

    OK imaginary €1,000 bank to start with

    Bet 1: Rangers to win v Dundee Utd €50 at 1.19 on betfair
    Bet 2: Bayern to win v Schalke €50 to win at 1.16 on betfair

    Nice start Rangers at home wins €9.50

    New Bank €1009.5

    Amend Bet 2 on Bayern next Friday 18th to a €52 win at 1.16 on betfair




  • westtip wrote: »
    Nice start Rangers at home wins €9.50

    New Bank €1009.5

    Amend Bet 2 on Bayern next Friday 18th to a €52 win at 1.16 on betfair

    Bet 3 Celtic to beat Livingston on Sat 19th. €52 win at 1.15 betfair. Celtic are playing on Wednesday and usually I would leave a bet until that match is complete. I am assuming Celtic will beat St Mirren on Wednesday and shorten further for the match on Saturday. So will invest on them now €52 win at 1.15




  • westtip wrote: »
    Bet 3 Celtic to beat Livingston on Sat 19th. €52 win at 1.15 betfair. Celtic are playing on Wednesday and usually I would leave a bet until that match is complete. I am assuming Celtic will beat St Mirren on Wednesday and shorten further for the match on Saturday. So will invest on them now €52 win at 1.15
    Going to slot a bet in before the weekend bets on Munich and Celtic.

    Bet 4) 17th Sept AC Milan to beat Shamrock Rovers €52 at 1.15 betfair

    Comment at 6.55 pm The bet will be held at this price for calculations, the 1.22 available on Betfair is great value, nearly all the major bookmakers are hovering between 1.12 and 1.15 one is out on limb at 1.20. This is a top 6 Serie A team versus a league of Ireland team, ok the best at the moment, but really???? a 22% chance of winning? I may get this one completely wrong but that is huge value. Let the match begin I don't usually bet on away teams but this is one time I simply have too, especially as this is a one leg match winner takes all AC Milan will want Europa league football for the TV income with empty stadiums its a must win game for them. As with any bet I might be proven wrong so be it if I am.




  • westtip wrote: »
    Going to slot a bet in before the weekend bets on Munich and Celtic.

    Bet 4) 17th Sept AC Milan to beat Shamrock Rovers €52 at 1.15 betfair

    Comment at 6.55 pm The bet will be held at this price for calculations, the 1.22 available on Betfair is great value, nearly all the major bookmakers are hovering between 1.12 and 1.15 one is out on limb at 1.20. This is a top 6 Serie A team versus a league of Ireland team, ok the best at the moment, but really???? a 22% chance of winning? I may get this one completely wrong but that is huge value. Let the match begin I don't usually bet on away teams but this is one time I simply have too, especially as this is a one leg match winner takes all AC Milan will want Europa league football for the TV income with empty stadiums its a must win game for them. As with any bet I might be proven wrong so be it if I am.

    hope some of you got that ridiculous starting price of 1.22 on AC Milan I couldn't believe they drifted so much prior to KO a lot was traded at prices upto 1.27 before KO. after 20 mins and still at 0 0 1.40 was on offer, they did well but quality shone through. At the advised price a profit of 7.80 hope you all did better!

    Bank moves to €1017.30 with two bets to run over the weekend.

    Re prices both Bayern and Celtic have shortened, with plenty traded at the advisory prices so we have a bit of value there. I am still reeling at the 1.22 on offer on Milan tonight




  • westtip wrote: »
    Nice start Rangers at home wins €9.50

    New Bank €1009.5

    Amend Bet 2 on Bayern next Friday 18th to a €52 win at 1.16 on betfair

    posting this before half time but at 3-0 up I will eat my hat if Bayern don't win. €8.32 profit takes the bank to €1025.62. This is a slow process, lets see how Celtic pan out tomorrow, remember this methodology is a slow unrelenting grind to make profit, I take the view that gambling investments on sports betting is like playing the markets, believe me there will be losses but if I can deliver 15% growth on bank over 12 months you will find in the long term this is the only way to go. In the early part of the season some of the away games played in empty stadiums I think there will present opportunities.

    in fact looking ahead to next week already, this Bayern team is just a machine, next Sunday 27th they play Hoffenheim and are 1.34 on Betfair, take that price now even though they are playing away, I think the SP next week could be down to 1.25. So Bet 5 is Bayern to beat Hoffenheim at 1.34 €53 next Sunday Sept 27th. Although Hoffenheim came 6th in the league last year Bayern beat them 6 nil the same away fixture back in February it simply has to be another Bayern win next Sunday in an empty stadium and training ground atmosphere.


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  • westtip wrote: »
    posting this before half time but at 3-0 up I will eat my hat if Bayern don't win. €8.32 profit takes the bank to €1025.62. This is a slow process, lets see how Celtic pan out tomorrow, remember this methodology is a slow unrelenting grind to make profit, I take the view that gambling investments on sports betting is like playing the markets, believe me there will be losses but if I can deliver 15% growth on bank over 12 months you will find in the long term this is the only way to go. In the early part of the season some of the away games played in empty stadiums I think there will present opportunities.

    in fact looking ahead to next week already, this Bayern team is just a machine, next Sunday 27th they play Hoffenheim and are 1.34 on Betfair, take that price now even though they are playing away, I think the SP next week could be down to 1.25. So Bet 5 is Bayern to beat Hoffenheim at 1.34 €53 next Sunday Sept 27th. Although Hoffenheim came 6th in the league last year Bayern beat them 6 nil the same away fixture back in February it simply has to be another Bayern win next Sunday in an empty stadium and training ground atmosphere.

    You have to be nimble in this market, Bayern have dropped to 1.28 on betfair tonight and any price over 1.3 is hard found now, and this is for a game a week on Sunday. Bayern were awesome tonight. Expect more investments on them. There were was money available tonight at the price advised so it will be held at the price advised.




  • westtip wrote: »
    Bet 3 Celtic to beat Livingston on Sat 19th. €52 win at 1.15 betfair. Celtic are playing on Wednesday and usually I would leave a bet until that match is complete. I am assuming Celtic will beat St Mirren on Wednesday and shorten further for the match on Saturday. So will invest on them now €52 win at 1.15

    Celtic drifted wildly today, I think just at kick off a price of 1.28 was available, ridiculous, we put it down as 1.15 earlier in the week, hope you beat that price.

    Bank at €1025.62 goes to 1033.4 It's a 3.3% growth on bank in the week with the bet on Bayern next week secured at a good price. Haven't seen many opportunities coming up this week and if nothing is there its a no bet situation.




  • Bank at 1033.4

    Found mid week investment Bet 6 €52 win on HJ Helsinki on Thursday 24th to beat TPS Turku at 1.17 on Betfair.




  • played advised stake pricen advised result P/L cumulative Bank start 1000
    Bet 1 Rangers v Dundee 12-Sep 11-Sep 50 1.19 1 9.5 9.5 1009.5
    Bet 2 Bayern v Schalke 18-Sep 11-Sep 52 1.16 1 8.3 17.8 1017.8
    Bet 3 Celtic v Livingstone 19-Sep 12-Sep 52 1.15 1 7.8 25.6 1025.6
    Bet 4 AC Milan v Shamrock 16-Sep 17-Sep 52 1.15 1 7.8 33.4 1033.4
    Bet 5 Helsinki v Turku 24-Sep 20-Sep 52 1.17
    Bet 6 Bayen v Hoffenheim 27-Sep 18-Sep 52 1.34


    Cumulative table with two outstanding investments to play this week, note the price advised on Bayern has plummeted from the original 1.34 to 1.22 and now settled at 1.25, mind you we missed on the drifting market on both Celtic and AC Milan so this all balances out. Looks like those two investments this week will cap it for the week. Remember what we are looking for is capital growth with limited risk, there will be losers and set backs - believe me, we are seeking about 10 to 15% growth on capital per annum, with a strike rate on our investments of about 80% correct, the growth rate forecast is more than you will get with the bank and probably the markets at the moment, note the advised and played columns have variance, I am listing the investments in playing order.




  • There may be one more investment on Sunday, the stake will depend on the outcome of next two games so will advise on Sunday at about 5 pm

    Just a quick note Helsinki drifted to the most ridiculous price of 1.27 before start of play, they were 2 0 up and unbelievably Turku came back to 2. 2 for those of you who trade on betfair I hope traded at that time and took the profit I did but it goes down as a loser


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  • in addition to what we have on Bayern today two more investments.

    Club brugge v Cercle Brugge 50 win at 1.25 BFair
    and HJK Helsinki (again) v 50 at 1.11 Bfair.

    Both matches today = sorry just editing that Helsinki game is on monday.




  • What can you say about that Bayern Munich result losing 4 1 gave us two losers in a row, most unusual believe me. Was a bit concerned but Club Brugge came good. The Bayern result was a one off, on reflection cashing out on the good price we got might have been better with the SuperCup match probably making them tired. The really disappointing result of the weekend was Helsinki chucking in a 2 0 lead in the last 15 minutes on Thursday I am sure they will bounce back tomorrow against the bottom team. Will update where we stand, Bayern was a shocker!




  • An easy winner tonight which was fully expected with Helsinki coming in at 4-0. As mentioned before it was their last result that really riled me, 2 up with ten minutes to go. But the two losers in a row has set us back but this happens. I fully expect to hit our target of 15% annual bank growth. Here is the current table

    played advised system stke advised stake pricen advised result P/L cumulative Bank start 1000
    Bet 1 Rangers v Dundee 12-Sep 11-Sep 50.0 50 1.19 1 9.5 9.5 1009.5
    Bet 2 Bayern v Schalke 18-Sep 11-Sep 50.5 52 1.16 1 8.3 17.8 1017.8
    Bet 3 Celtic v Livingstone 19-Sep 12-Sep 50.5 52 1.15 1 7.8 25.6 1025.6
    Bet 4 AC Milan v Shamrock 16-Sep 17-Sep 50.9 52 1.15 1 7.8 33.4 1033.4
    Bet 5 Helsinki v Turku 24-Sep 20-Sep 51.3 52 1.17 0 -52.0 -18.6 981.4
    Bet 6 Hoffenheim v Bayern 27-Sep 18-Sep 51.7 52 1.34 0 -52.0 -70.6 929.4
    Bet 7 Club Brugge v Cercle Brugge 27-Sep 26-Sep 49.1 50 1.25 1 12.5 -58.1 941.9
    Bet 8 helsinki v ROPS 27-Sep 27-Sep 46.5 50 1.11 1 5.5 -52.6 947.4




  • Rangers v Ross County @ 1.11 on BF €50 to win is the only bet of the weekend




  • Might I suggest reviewing the current approach and thus the downward trajectory.
    Ideal traget prices might be best at avg. 1.40 (as per the FFT* run), using and/or (DC:win&draw) and under/over (match goals, usually 1.5+), BTTS type markets.

    Find the 1.11 type prices repulsive, and give a false sense of certaintly (in a market without any certainties).
    Factor in effort and time factors for 1.1x.

    * FFT (now closed) was a cheeky chappie that ran x44 sequential wins on his FreeFootballTips blog/tw.
    Accumulated a theoretical 1.4m net profit from standing start of just 5/10notes or so (can't remember exact).
    All verified and posted pre-match, follwed the run from circa 20 onwards, was top tw banter.




  • Might I suggest reviewing the current approach and thus the downward trajectory.
    Ideal traget prices might be best at avg. 1.40 (as per the FFT* run), using and/or (DC:win&draw) and under/over (match goals, usually 1.5+), BTTS type markets.

    Find the 1.11 type prices repulsive, and give a false sense of certaintly (in a market without any certainties).
    Factor in effort and time factors for 1.1x.

    * FFT (now closed) was a cheeky chappie that ran x44 sequential wins on his FreeFootballTips blog/tw.
    Accumulated a theoretical 1.4m net profit from standing start of just 5/10notes or so (can't remember exact).
    All verified and posted pre-match, follwed the run from circa 20 onwards, was top tw banter.

    I appreciate your view, the slip ups recently were two exceptional results, never ever saw that Bayern result coming, and Helsinki were 2 0 up and coasting, personally I laid them at 1.01 for the full stake so broke even. A price of 1.11 is not repulsive, strange choice of words! I rate them as a 1.05 chance which is why I will happily take that price, my strategy is plain to see, the key issue is the price you bet at, some of the prices in the earlier bets drifted to stupid prices, I personally lumped on inter-milan at 1.25 and Celtic at the same. Each to their own strategy, I find this works for me. As mentioned I am only looking to increase the bank by 15% per annum. It more or less doubles the bank every five years. Go find a fund manager to do that. Each to their own.




  • This post is only a few minutes before ko but for me the 1.45 on Celtic v St Johnstone is just too big a price - so recommend if you catch this €50 at this price on Betfair.




  • Phew, Celtic only just got that one over the line, the price of 1.45 proved good value could have been left with egg on the face with that one. But a late winner is always sweet!!




  • Been thinking about Bayern against Hertha Berlin now they have touched 1.17 with plenty available on BF going to go for them as well this afternoon €50 win Bayern at 1.17 v Hertha Berlin.




  • Rangers did the business as they should do at 1.11, Bayern have drifted at the off to 1.19, not sure what is gong on with Bayern but stick with them today already advised at 1.17. 1.19 is a very good price for them at home to Hertha Berlin. IMO they will be determined to bury that Hoffenheim result and have a home win before international duty. We will know in less than two hours from now!


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  • Bayern seem to have forgotten how to defend, however very lucky to get a win there, had been half thinking about putting Liverpool up tonight but with the news about Alinson and of course Mane out I held back, looks like it was a good call. Two very lucky last minute wins with Celtic and Bayern but hey thats the way it goes. Personally I laid Bayern at 1.01 to the full value of my stake when they went 2 0 up, didn't need this safety net in the end but the way they are conceding goals might be body swerving them for a while. It could have been a bad day as it is a lot of recovery there before the break, doubt I will do anything in the international break.




  • Here is the up to date table, lucky day yesterday but this happens, almost back to the full bank following those two glitches last week, personally when a team goes 2 up like Bayern did yesterday and Helsinki did last week you can usually lay them at 1.01 or 1.02 on BF, Ok you lose a couple of % of your win margin, but in the case of Helsinki last week it would have saved your entire stake and the same with Bayern yesterday were it not for a penalty in the 94th minute.

    played advised advised stake pricen advised result P/L cumulative Bank start 1000
    Bet 1 Rangers v Dundee 12-Sep 11-Sep 50 1.19 1 9.5 9.5 1009.5
    Bet 2 Bayern v Schalke 18-Sep 11-Sep 52 1.16 1 8.3 17.8 1017.8
    Bet 3 Celtic v Livingstone 19-Sep 12-Sep 52 1.15 1 7.8 25.6 1025.6
    Bet 4 AC Milan v Shamrock 16-Sep 17-Sep 52 1.15 1 7.8 33.4 1033.4
    Bet 5 Helsinki v Turku 24-Sep 20-Sep 52 1.17 0 -52.0 -18.6 981.4
    Bet 6 Hoffenheim v Bayern 27-Sep 18-Sep 52 1.34 0 -52.0 -70.6 929.4
    Bet 7 Club Brugge v Cercle Brugge 27-Sep 26-Sep 50 1.25 1 12.5 -58.1 941.9
    Bet 8 helsinki v ROPS 27-Sep 27-Sep 50 1.11 1 5.5 -52.6 947.4
    Bet 9 Celtic v St Johnstone 04-Oct 04-Oct 50 1.45 1 22.5 -30.1 969.9
    Bet 10 Rangers v Ross couty 04-Oct 03-Oct 50 1.11 1 5.5 -24.6 975.4
    Bet 11 Bayern V Hertha 04-Oct 04-Oct 50 1.17 1 8.5 -16.1 983.9





  • i had a lay up from saturday at 1.01 on bayern and didn't get matched until seconds before the final whistle so i'm surprised you managed to get them at 1.01 at 2 up especially when your bet was placed on the day of the match you should have been at the back of the queue.

    not sure if backing these types of prices is worth the risk for me, but i wish you the very best in this endeavour!




  • ianburke wrote: »
    i had a lay up from saturday at 1.01 on bayern and didn't get matched until seconds before the final whistle so i'm surprised you managed to get them at 1.01 at 2 up especially when your bet was placed on the day of the match you should have been at the back of the queue.

    not sure if backing these types of prices is worth the risk for me, but i wish you the very best in this endeavour!

    I laid them at 1.02 not 1.01 about a minute after they went 2 up. I find what tends to happen if a team goes 2 up in the 2nd half in particular a hot favourite there is an immediate availability of around 1.02 available for those getting out of the market which disappears fairly quickly and depending on time left the price drifts to 1.05 or so which comes down gradually as the clock ticks away, unless of course another goal comes along. It was an outrageous win in the end, they seem to have forgotten how to defend. I try to beat the SP and then get the lay bet in early to get rid of the liability and play a keep on it, if the very low price lay gets matched you on in a win or break even scenario only, but you know that from what you have said. I didn't do this on the Helsinki game last week which annoyed me. I know what you mean about these prices but I have found it reduces the risk of wipeout, I take the very long term view on returns. I genuinely believe I will get between 10 and 15% growth on bank over a year, 15% will double bank over five years, I really take that length of time view on it, if I bother to keep this thread going you will see what I mean, on the other hand I might fall flat on my face, such are the vagaries of this game.




  • interesting thread thanks.Is it going to be all 50 bets if why did you up it to 52?




  • sasta le wrote: »
    interesting thread thanks.Is it going to be all 50 bets if why did you up it to 52?

    5% of bank or rounded figure, stuck with slightly more than 5% on some of those earlier bets. I think when I put them up as 52 the bank had risen beyond he original 1000 so 52 represented the step beyond the original 50 on 1000. I am rounding the figures for these advisory investments but I believe in percentages and as the bank hopefully increases to a meaningful level you will see how the stakes go up. It is a weird year for betting though with all that is going on.




  • Following the disturbance of the international break, the most tiresome interference to sports/football betting known to mankind, I have an initial offering for this weekend, with players not affected by the international break.

    Shamrock rovers to beat Derry at 1.40 on BF. on Friday 16th Small amounts available at the moment even at 1.41 but 1.4 should be available.

    The average price across an array of bookmakers is 1.36, Unless Rovers get a CV19 outbreak they should be at full strength and there is a chance they could win the title with this game. Anyway I am going to run with it at this advised price. The bank is almost back to square one, so we will make it €50 win at 1.40. In addition Derry have a long way to travel which does not work in their favour with a tough match ahead of them. If was pricing this one up as a bookmaker I would have Rovers in as 1.28, I think they are overpriced in this game, no matter what the result that's my view.

    I spoke too soon, Shams now have a positive case and several players with covid issues. they have drifted to 1.61. I am on at 1.41 but there you go, got a feeling the match might be postponed. Suspend this bet if you are following this do not have a bet on this match until we know what is going to happen.....

    Quick update this game has now been postponed the market will be voided on Betfair so its a no bet.




  • With Shamrock rovers off due to the outbreak of CV 19 at Shams not sure if I will have a bet this weekend, possibly one on Sat. Evening but won't put it up till later on Saturday in case of more covid news in a club.




  • I would have picked Shamrock Rovers aswell


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  • Decided to have an investment this evening, even though they have drifted a little. take the 1.27 on Real Madrid v Cadiz this evening ko at 5.30 pm. There has been no last minute covid announcement like there was on Shamrock Rovers, I am being very cautious now about putting bets on more than a 2 hours before the game due to the current unpredictability of covid hitting a team!!!

    The bank is almost back to the €1000 starter bank so 5% of bank is just about €50 so its €50 at 1.27 on BF on Real.

    If Madrid happen to go 2 up I would be inclined to lay them to cover the stake at about 1.02 or .03 but that is your own personal call.

    Well the chance of Madrid going 2-0 up was somewhat optimistic, they had drifted for a reason they played crap and deserved to lose....to rub salt in the wound the other one I was considering was Bayern away.. hey ho.


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