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  • Throw the lot on Biden and have done with the pussyfooting !!!




  • cute geoge wrote: »
    Throw the lot on Biden and have done with the pussyfooting !!!
    #

    I backed biden about 6 months ago at 5/2! Not worried in that department, but yes the other process is slow and had a few setbacks of late, but the policy is low risk on the bank see it as a long term growth issue.




  • I lost backing PSG single bet last night




  • sasta le wrote: »
    I lost backing PSG single bet last night

    I seriously considered PSG last night but after the debacle I had with my inner demon re the Real Madrid bet at the weekend I stopped myself. I am very annoyed with the Real Madrid bet as it did not tick all my boxes, I was impatient after the international break, and that was the box it least ticked. It is after the event and I am not making excuses but I rarely have a bet after an international break in particular on teams packed with international stars suffering from jetlag. That one was a huge error, and would have been even if they had scraped a win. The reason I put up Shamrock Rovers up is they were not affected by the international break, but other things interfered with that. I am having just one bet this weekend, will post it later in the week.




  • Might be too low for some people but PSG to beat Dijon tomorrow at 1.1 on BF stake is 5% of current bank = €49.


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  • Rangers today at 1.25 on BF. €49 to win, I cannot understand the massive drift on Rangers but lets see what happens




  • westtip wrote: »
    Rangers today at 1.25 on BF. €49 to win, I cannot understand the massive drift on Rangers but lets see what happens
    HC(-2) @3.1 is nicer in retrospect as they're up 2-0 <20mins

    They sure seem to be on a roll these days, not sure how they even have the motivation, after getting slayed by Celtic year after year.




  • HC(-2) @3.1 is nicer in retrospect as they're up 2-0 <20mins

    They sure seem to be on a roll these days, not sure how they even have the motivation, after getting slayed by Celtic year after year.

    The whole celtic rangers thing is overplayed, its a crap league with low level of football. I wish your bet had come off, yes 2-0 after less than 20 mins suggested you on a good thing hope you laid in time to get green screen.




  • liverpool to beat Midjtyland in Uefa champions league this tuesday 27th at 1.13 on BF €49 win.

    Again it has drifted to 1.14 and there has been some 1.15 available but don't let that put you off, for a UEFA champions league match at home I am presuming a full strength Liverpool team (even without VD) will beat the weakest team in the group this is a must win for Lpool to bank 6 points in the league phases on the home and away leg against this team, they were lucky to get the win last week against Ajax so will want to bank that luck with 3 steady points at home.

    The 1.22 price on Liverpool that they have drifted too is ridiculous!!!! IMO!




  • Here is one for tonight Benfica to beat Belenese at 1.18 on BF €49 win. Generally about 1.15 with most bookies as low as 1.1 with PP, the 1.18 beats all bookmakers. Will update the table once a week, less admin needed then.


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  • will post up the results table at the end of the week, the bank has made a recovery and now sits at 966 based on advices given still 33 down on the start but I take a very long term view on these things, and operate a very low risk strategy in terms of sudden big losses to the bank. That is just my philosophy on these things, taking account of some of the crazy price drifts of late, Liverpool went out to 1.25 sp the other night I am leaving posting bets up until nearer the time of the matches. I am toying with the idea of Arsenal tonight ok it is only 1.09 but for me it is money for old rope (famous last words), if he puts out a really crazy 2nd team against lesser opposition they may drift further, certainly if they drift like Milan did against Shamrock Rovers, or liverpool did this week i will consider them. If they hit 1.15 for example yes don't miss out on such a high value opportunity, take a punt yourselves. I do have two for the weekend but based on recent drifting patterns I am not putting them up until saturday. Keep an eye on Arsenal I will more than likely take a price on them I simply cannot see a league of ireland team for all the gusto they have beating a team of premier league players.




  • OK Arsenal have hit 1.12 on BF at that price they are worth a punt, €49 win.




  • westtip wrote: »
    OK Arsenal have hit 1.12 on BF at that price they are worth a punt, €49 win.

    Hope you picked up this message - during the first half they drifted to as high as 1.22 and whilst they took their time to score it was always going to happen, I managed to get 1.13 before kick off but kick myself for not trading in the match. These senior league teams against the minnows in the groups are like shooting fish in the barrel and it may take time for a team to score like it did Arsenal tonight. Dundalk were plucky and can be proud of being there but this one was a foregone conclusion (if ever there can be), 5% of bank at 1.1 achieves a bank growth of half of one percentage point growth on your overall bank, more than you will get from the Bank in a year. OK losers will happen but believe me this approach does work if you make sure you get the best prices on offer. Our annual target remains 15% growth on bank.




  • Ajax to bt Fortuna tomorrow evening, yes its short at 1.1 on BF a lot of bookies ar going 1.05 or 1.06 so 1.1 beats most bookies. Short yes, but should be profitable. The bank is almost back to 1000 so we will go €50 win, don't think we will see a big price drift on this tomorrow, but the way things have been going you never know, players might be rested for this as they have champions league matches coming up. It should be a shoe in.




  • Apologies I thought I had posted a second bet yesterday, PSV at 1.25 (had drifted from 1.2) I was on it but cannot claim it as a post, they won easily. 5 -0 I think the final score.

    Got an away bet tonight Benfica away to Boavista at 1.3 on BF. Benfica have won 5/5 i the league, Boavista not won yet drawn 3 lost 2 G difference -6 compared with Benfica +12. Benfica should knock this on the head tonight. 3 full days rest since Thursday nights home win the Europa league so no travel fatigue already a tight battle at the top of the league they will see Boavista as a 6 point fixture this season. 1.3 is a good price some bookies are 1.25 Paddy Power as low as 1.22. 1.3 is good value. don't normally do away bets but if this was Benfica at home they could be as low as 1.12. Anyway thats my view €50 win at 1.3. BF exchange only.

    Unbelievable result.On a par with that 4 -0 drubbing of Bayern. Stunned!! Ah well it is a long term game.




  • Are you trying too hard ,I think you have the right idea but you need just a bit more patience .I did not back your tip last night as even you were unsure yourself .The Arsenal result was spot on but it is no good looking for extra value unless it is going to be a winner!!!




  • cute geoge wrote: »
    Are you trying too hard ,I think you have the right idea but you need just a bit more patience .I did not back your tip last night as even you were unsure yourself .The Arsenal result was spot on but it is no good looking for extra value unless it is going to be a winner!!!

    It was tinged with doubt, I think if I had remembered to post PSV on Sunday I wouldn't have put it up but really, for me on all fronts it was a shoe in statistically, but hey ho, we all know this game. but it hurt losers of that magnitude always do. Also I was probably too keen to get the bank back to the start point. instead it is now down a 5% betting point again after a good run. OMG its hard but not catastrophic, I really do take a limited risk strategy and always try to beat the average market price across the main bookmakers, long term it does work. I am going to push on tonight with a 5% of bank bet of €48 euro on Man city to beat Olympiakos tonight at 1.23 on BF. I think they will be very focused on this despite an indifferent start to Premier league and will roll the dice on this one with a huge effort to push for early qualification for the knockout phases. the average price of most mainstream bookies is 1.20. PP as ever very skinny at 1.16. so 1.23 is reasonable value, there is plenty available. Hopefully we will recover over 20% of last night lost stake, if city go 2-0 up out of pure caution I would say lay at about 1.02 or 1.03 depending on how much time is left in game, will leave that one to yourselves.




  • the bookies prices are never a true reflection on the odds. if the betfair starting price is evens and the bookies odds are 5/6 or 10/11, the bet will come in 50% of the time and you will lose after commission. i can't see any way of making it pay unless you beat the betfair starting price which you have managed to do a few times - although laying off at 1.02 is probably throwing away the few ticks you managed to beat it by.




  • ianburke wrote: »
    the bookies prices are never a true reflection on the odds. if the betfair starting price is evens and the bookies odds are 5/6 or 10/11, the bet will come in 50% of the time and you will lose after commission. i can't see any way of making it pay unless you beat the betfair starting price which you have managed to do a few times - although laying off at 1.02 is probably throwing away the few ticks you managed to beat it by.

    I let man city run on, personally I bagged 1.24 on monday on my own account you are dead right about the prices and commission you are on. Sometimes I lay to prevent the loss just as an emotional issue, yes you give a bit back on a few bets. got beaten on SP a few times recently due to some crazy drifts on match days whihc have startled me. The logarithm I work usually gives me an edge and about 80% strike rate, you go through periods of odd results, there have been one or two recently but I stick by my thought process and it is a long haul not a sprint.




  • Got two today. BF 1.2 Bodo Glimit to beat Aasland in Norway. Bodo are top of th league Aasland bottom. Bodo still playing to close the league out.

    Rangers at 1.11 on BF it may not be available right now but should get matched before ko. Rangers have shortened overnight from 1.1 to 1.07 on BF, although I am sure they will win not worth taking that price. Play a keep at kick off bet and if Rangers take their time to score go for 1.11 they have shortened with bookmakers to 1.07. Not worth playing at that price.


    both €49 bets.

    Rangers never got the price they scored too early in the game when they were touching 1.07. Too short even for me, I was trying to get 1.13 all week been greedy! should have taken 1.12 when available so this one simply leave it as a non bet, lets see how Bodo Glmit get on!


    Called the Rangers game right 8 0! but wish I had taken and advised the 1.12 earlier in the week, hey ho, the Bodo Glimit for me was greater value also top v bottom 1.2 was a great price, hope you got it if not 1.19. they also won by a hug margin 7-0, probably wil just tune out for the international break hate them with a vengence!


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  • Here is the updated results to date, bank is 5% down, not to concerned about that. I take a very cautious approach. Won't be dong anything until after the PIA. International break that is, a complete distraction and upsets the rhythm of domestic competitions. The most disappointing thing in these results was the loss of value in the AC Milan and Liverpool bets with the price drifts after posting them up, and not getting on Rangers at 1.12 this wkend. Real Madrid bet taught me once again don't bet on big clubs after international breaks too many stars suffering from jetlag and travel weariness, in particular clubs who have south american stars, that is a one long way to go and come back from in a few days just to play a football match, those guys are not functioning right until they have been back in Europe ten days. Those price drifts and not grabbing rangers at 1.12 cost about 2.5% of bank growth, these small margins make a difference at the end of the year. Anyway caution will continue to drive my thinking.

    Bet number selectinon/descriptive played advised advised stake pricen advised result P/L cumulative Bank start 1000
    1 Rangers v Dundee 12-Sep 11-Sep 50 1.19 1 9.5 9.5 1010
    2 Bayern v Schalke 18-Sep 11-Sep 52 1.16 1 8.3 17.8 1018
    3 Celtic v Livingstone 19-Sep 12-Sep 52 1.15 1 7.8 25.6 1026
    4 AC Milan v Shamrock 16-Sep 17-Sep 52 1.15 1 7.8 33.4 1033
    5 Helsinki v Turku 24-Sep 20-Sep 52 1.17 0 -52.0 -18.6 981
    6 Hoffenheim v Bayern 27-Sep 18-Sep 52 1.34 0 -52.0 -70.6 929
    7 Club Brugge v Cercle Brugge 27-Sep 26-Sep 50 1.25 1 12.5 -58.1 942
    8 helsinki v ROPS 27-Sep 27-Sep 50 1.11 1 5.5 -52.6 947
    9 Celtic v St Johnstone 04-Oct 04-Oct 50 1.45 1 22.5 -30.1 970
    10 Rangers v Ross couty 04-Oct 03-Oct 50 1.11 1 5.5 -24.6 975
    11 Bayern V Hertha 04-Oct 04-Oct 50 1.17 1 8.5 -16.1 984
    12 Real Madrid v Cadiz 17-Oct 17-Oct 50 1.25 0 -50.0 -66.1 934
    13 PSG v Dijon 24-Oct 23-Oct 49 1.1 1 4.9 -61.2 939
    14 Rangers v Livingstone 25-Oct 25-Oct 49 1.25 1 12.3 -48.9 951
    15 Benfica v Belenese 26-Oct 26-Oct 49 1.18 1 8.8 -40.1 960
    16 Liverpool V Midtjyland 27-Oct 25-Oct 49 1.13 1 6.4 -33.7 966
    17 Arsenal to bt Dundalk 29-Oct 29-Oct 49 1.12 1 5.9 -27.9 972
    18 Ajax 01-Nov 01-Nov 49 1.1 1 4.9 -23.0 977
    19 Benfica v Boavista 02-Nov 02-Nov 49 1.3 0 -49.0 -72.0 928
    20 man city v Olympiacos 03-Nov 03-Nov 49 1.23 1 11.3 -61 939
    21 Bodo Glimit 08-Nov 07-Nov 49 1.2 1 9.8 -51 949




  • Three shorties this weekend, and despite the return from internationals, these teams do not have an array of South American stars in their midst, I think these players will be truly knackered after playing on another continent this week, look out for poor tired performances for European clubs for South American stars this weekend. These three teams are not really affected by this factor.

    Bayern @1.14 BF v Werder Bremen.

    Red Bull Salzburg @1.18 v Sturm Graz

    Ajax @ 1.14 BF v Heracles

    with current bank the bet is €49 each to win.

    I don't do multiple bets this would pay 1.53 at these prices. They might form a useful foundation as acca bankers, anyone doing an acca this weekend add Rangers into these three at 1.35, however when you do an acca the prices will not be matched with other bookmakers. For example the 4 fold I have mentioned pays 1.71 on the Betfair Sportsbook (ie Paddy Power) but the individual prices on the xchange should pay an acca of 2.07, that is a huge % differential. You don't get the value prices in the accas is what I am saying! For a bit of "social betting" and fun, a fiver or a tenner maybe do it, but losses will be incurred in the long term because you lose the value. Be lucky.




  • Sometimes I am baffled by this, Bayern seem to have lost the plot, and actually could easily lost, As for Salzburg currently 0-3 down in the second half this is a day to forget. Had them before, need to be resilient in this game and take it on the chin, Hey ho.




  • I'm afraid you are going to meet such loses a lot more frequently that you would think. I hope all goes well for you but I have my reservations. Been following a group now that has opened my eyes to "value" and I dont see there being any or much value in 1x2 betting on big markets. Bookies have to price it wrong for you to leverage the value and on main leagues with large amounts of people betting on them the lines are generally fairly accurate meaning you cant win long term. You might catch early market rates but in the 1.1-1.3 or so range the risk is high as you need things to go as you expect, which in gambling is never easy.




  • Bambata you might be right I started posting these up just as an afterthought, might seize doing it from here, however I generally do back low price 1x2 and have found in the past ten years an average win ratio of about 80% betting 5% of bank you can hit some very long winning runs, that is when it kicks in to make money, I only lay out 5% of bank, the losses of the last the last few weeks are when a couple of loser clusters set you back, my bank has never fallen below 80% in a season and has shown profit in 9/10 seasons. The one losing season was a loss of 10% of bank. Ajax won today, in ten years I have never had a losing run of 3! so was sweating on that one. I might stop posting up, its a hassle to do it anyway, and just continue with what I do privately. Each to their own, thanks for your feedback. We are all on the same side in this battle!




  • https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2054971966&page=4

    your style of betting is identical to well over 10 years ago when you abandoned that thread after 5 or 6 very very short price losers in a row. i'm not sure anything has changed. i would like to see you finish this thread and back up the claims that your'e making money, but i do understand it is a hassle having to post up all your bets.




  • westtip wrote: »
    Here is the updated results to date, bank is 5% down, not to concerned about that. ]


    You probably should be concerned at being down 5% in a week.




  • Pkiernan wrote: »
    You probably should be concerned at being down 5% in a week.

    One losing bet will take me down 5%, that doesn't wildly concern me, one week is irrelevant in this game I look at it over the years.




  • ianburke wrote: »
    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2054971966&page=4

    your style of betting is identical to well over 10 years ago when you abandoned that thread after 5 or 6 very very short price losers in a row. i'm not sure anything has changed. i would like to see you finish this thread and back up the claims that your'e making money, but i do understand it is a hassle having to post up all your bets.


    My god a long time ago! Yes it might just be too much of a hassle, I did privately back Rangers as well today, they are looking good to make money on this season although it irks me to say it!


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  • we will miss this thread if it finishes early. i for one have enjoyed reading it and following the scores like a few other threads on here.

    backing these shorties on betfair, as opposed to the bookies, is certainly the way to go. the bookies clean up on them - you can't lose a fortune betting to sp on betfair long term but with the bookies it's a different story with the odds they offer.


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