Storm Callum - Thursday/Friday 11/12 October 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

leinad · 08-10-2018 10:58pm

Is the pressure at 954 a major factor in how strong the wind might be?

JanuarySnowstor · 08-10-2018 11:05pm

Just noticed the projected rainfall for Friday and Saturday. Could well make more news than the wind. It looks torrential at times

Harry Palmr · 08-10-2018 11:06pm

Er yes! along with proximity, the track and which side of it you are on (you could be only 100 kms further away and the effects be less severe by some margin), with storm level depressions you tend to get a pronounced tightening of isobars on one side/corner

km79 · 08-10-2018 11:09pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Just noticed the projected rainfall for Friday and Saturday. Could well make more news than the wind. It looks torrential at times

Be grand
It’s mainly the south east
Should ease the drought

Meteorite58 · 08-10-2018 11:13pm

Just looking at ICON 18Z and back in line with the ECM and GFS showing high end warnings across SW, W, NW and N. Very windy elsewhere.

GFS 18Z just out and showing at least Orange warning everywhere, we could be seeing Red warnings along some coastal counties if the models keeps churning out charts like today.

About 72 to 73hrs before strong winds make there way onto the SW coast.

Meteorite58 · 08-10-2018 11:29pm

GFS 18Z showing parts of the S , SE and up through the midlands getting between 40 and 60mm from about 07.00 Fri to 07.00 Sat.

uck51js9zml2yt · 08-10-2018 11:40pm

How bad is Kerry looking with this.
I'm on a height.

Meteorite58 · 08-10-2018 11:54pm

Nicholas Worried Goalkeeper wrote: »

How bad is Kerry looking with this.
I'm on a height.

Going by tonights guidance looks like widespread gusts 110 to 130km/h , coasts especially headlands in S Kerry and Dingle peninsula gusts 130 to 140 km/h ,possibly higher?

Dependent on track and maintaining current projections.

ninebeanrows · 09-10-2018 7:40am

EC with big jog west this AM

sryanbruen · 09-10-2018 7:41am

ECM 0z has lowered the 24-hour rainfall totals relatively so (compared to last night's 12z) for Friday into Saturday in the southeast of Ireland but still very large totals being depicted here. 30mm+ as far north as Down on this run including Louth, Dublin, Meath and Kildare.

M.T. Cranium · 09-10-2018 7:47am

There now seems to be a bit of a model debate with European models tracking the Friday low a bit further west and wind speeds not looking quite as ominous, but two North American models still placing Ireland in the firing line. These debates often end with a compromise result which would turn out to be something like limited orange level warning status winds in parts of the northwest. But seeing Michael steadily intensifying and coming into the western Atlantic by Friday, I think it's wise to remain on high alert (not from that event directly but due to its potential to kick the upper level features far enough east to place the jet stream directly over Ireland). The rainfall potential looks a little more certain to verify and that of course extends well past the first storm into Saturday with a trailing wave.

If models come into better agreement by 12z or the next 00z run then we can perhaps give this thread an alert level tag but at the moment I think readers should be aware that any outcome between a non-event (wind wise at least) and a major disruption at least in Connacht and Ulster (possibly west Munster also) are on the table.

Graces7 · 09-10-2018 7:52am

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

There now seems to be a bit of a model debate with European models tracking the Friday low a bit further west and wind speeds not looking quite as ominous, but two North American models still placing Ireland in the firing line. These debates often end with a compromise result which would turn out to be something like limited orange level warning status winds in parts of the northwest. But seeing Michael steadily intensifying and coming into the western Atlantic by Friday, I think it's wise to remain on high alert (not from that event directly but due to its potential to kick the upper level features far enough east to place the jet stream directly over Ireland). The rainfall potential looks a little more certain to verify and that of course extends well past the first storm into Saturday with a trailing wave.

If models come into better agreement by 12z or the next 00z run then we can perhaps give this thread an alert level tag but at the moment I think readers should be aware that any outcome between a non-event (wind wise at least) and a major disruption at least in Connacht and Ulster (possibly west Munster also) are on the table.

Thanks. What we have here the last 3 days now is bad enough; force 8 and heavy rain with all the noise etc.
A brief respite will be very welcome..to ready for the next episode

West mayo offshore island

KingdomRushed · 09-10-2018 7:58am

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

Looking interesting, definite trend eastwards but the brain and experience says that there is a significant possibility the storm centre will stay further west and well off the western sea-board.

I think this was a prescient insight and my feeling on it too. As we are approaching the reliable the drift to the west is now very evident on the ECM. Potentially will end up even further west and north than currently showing given past experience of how the models handle the likes of this

Villain · 09-10-2018 8:13am

Yep ECMWF take a welcome move West but as mentioned by others rainfall and coastal flooding is a an issue even if ECMWF is right about keeping worst winds offshore.

https://twitter.com/CarlowWeather/status/1049555371457728512

https://twitter.com/CarlowWeather/status/1049544761030443008

*Using Twitter as quickest way to share images.

Storm 10 · 09-10-2018 8:14am

ME forecast at 8 on radio,

Stormy and damaging gusts likely to lead to disruption on Friday.

sounded to me we could be heading for a red warning for this one.

marvin80 · 09-10-2018 8:59am

Is anyone familiar with this page and is it reliable?
They seem to tally up with what's been said here (which is a good sign!)

https://www.facebook.com/MidlandWeatherChannel/

Meteorite58 · 09-10-2018 9:01am

Big shift W by the ECM all right , is this a new track and possibly shifting more W or an Outlier. The GFS has been holding a consistent track as was the ECM untill its latest run.

ICON similar to last run in track and intesity.
ARPEGE looks similar to the ECM taking the strongest winds out to sea.

Defaulter1831 · 09-10-2018 10:11am

Storm 10 wrote: »

ME forecast at 8 on radio,

sounded to me we could be heading for a red warning for this one.

I've a feeling Met Eireann might be over playing this storm a little after criticism over Ali. Making sure they cover themselves.

Not saying this system could veer west or east and needs to be monitored but they haven't highlighted a storm in advance like this bar Ophelia in my memory. Highlighted since Sunday's Farming Weather.

KingdomRushed · 09-10-2018 10:31am

Has anyone seen the ensemble mean for ECM? Perhaps Met Eireann are seeing the op as an outlier? The op would suggest a far lessened impact than what was previously forecast, but posts in here suggest met are still talking up potential?

Villain · 09-10-2018 10:40am

KingdomRushed wrote: »

Has anyone seen the ensemble mean for ECM? Perhaps Met Eireann are seeing the op as an outlier? The op would suggest a far lessened impact than what was previously forecast, but posts in here suggest met are still talking up potential?

Could be a little bit of an outlier alright;

downwiththatsor · 09-10-2018 10:56am

Gfs looks like it might pack a punch, gusts over 130km/hr might be orange or more. More runs needed.
06_72_windvector_gust.png?cb=639

Hooter23 · 09-10-2018 11:36am

It's too early to be warning/hyping up this storm...they do this with every potential storm nowadays and alot of the time it turns out not as bad...no wonder people ignore the warnings...newspapers/radio and even met eireann should wait until there is certainty instead of confusing people

randomname2005 · 09-10-2018 11:43am

Hooter23 wrote: »

It's too early to be warning/hyping up this storm...they do this with every potential storm nowadays and alot of the time it turns out not as bad...no wonder people ignore the warnings...newspapers/radio and even met eireann should wait until there is certainty instead of confusing people

Damned if they do, damned if they don't. They can't win either way. If they don't raise the potential early then they are met with "we weren't given enough warning". If they raise it too early they are blamed for crying wolf. Some of the more knowledgeable people here will be better able to give a timeline estimate , but a storm coming from the south west might not be certain to hit or miss until a few hours before hand. I like knowing early so I can keep an eye, stock up on provisions in time. If it doesn't happen, no big deal.

Hooter23 · 09-10-2018 11:48am

randomname2005 wrote: »

Damned if they do, damned if they don't. They can't win either way. If they don't raise the potential early then they are met with "we weren't given enough warning". If they raise it too early they are blamed for crying wolf. Some of the more knowledgeable people here will be better able to give a timeline estimate , but a storm coming from the south west might not be certain to hit or miss until a few hours before hand. I like knowing early so I can keep an eye, stock up on provisions in time. If it doesn't happen, no big deal.

Yes your right...I think that after not giving a good enough warning with the bad storm a few weeks ago they are just trying to make sure they are not caught out again this time

Oscar Bravo · 09-10-2018 11:50am

Hooter23 wrote: »

It's too early to be warning/hyping up this storm...they do this with every potential storm nowadays and alot of the time it turns out not as bad...no wonder people ignore the warnings...newspapers/radio and even met eireann should wait until there is certainty instead of confusing people

Not sure how met eireann are confusing people, their forecast states the following "There is the potential for a named storm to come close to Ireland later Thursday night and early Friday morning, as a deep area of low pressure is set to track northwards, to the west of Ireland. The exact track is still not certain, so keep in tune for updates and Met Éireann warnings. …."

The wording above is spot on at the moment,giving that its only Tuesday. anyway I think the mods should set up a separate thread on the upcoming fallout regarding met eireann's warnings as the last storm thread was ruined.

Macy0161 · 09-10-2018 11:50am

Hooter23 wrote: »

It's too early to be warning/hyping up this storm...they do this with every potential storm nowadays and alot of the time it turns out not as bad...no wonder people ignore the warnings...newspapers/radio and even met eireann should wait until there is certainty instead of confusing people

They do, or the likes of The Journal with click bait headlines? The latter imo, any forecast has emphasised the "potential" and the uncertainty over the track.

I've had to say it to a few different people in the office today that it's still uncertain at the moment, and might not happen. It probably will be the same people giving out if it doesn't happen about "they said there was going to be a storm"...

Meteorite58 · 09-10-2018 11:59am

Mod Note: please see note on opening post. Please keep Met Eireann debate in appropriate thread, not here.

Thanks

Hooter23 · 09-10-2018 12:00pm

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Not sure how met eireann are confusing people, their forecast states the following "There is the potential for a named storm to come close to Ireland later Thursday night and early Friday morning, as a deep area of low pressure is set to track northwards, to the west of Ireland. The exact track is still not certain, so keep in tune for updates and Met Éireann warnings. …."

The wording above is spot on at the moment,giving that its only Tuesday. anyway I think the mods should set up a separate thread on the upcoming fallout regarding met eireann's warnings as the last storm thread was ruined.

It's probably more the newspapers/radio that hype up these storms...and then met eireann take all the backlash if the storm turns out worse or not as bad as expected...

Meteorite58 · 09-10-2018 12:03pm

GFS 06Z is a stonker. Not budging on track, even stronger looking than previous run, ECM 0Z an Outlier ?

Latest ICON looks similar to last run, very stormy.

The plot thickens. Time will tell.

goat2 · 09-10-2018 12:05pm

Meteorite58 wrote: »

GFS 06Z is a stonker. Not budging on track, even stronger looking than previous run, ECM 0Z an Outlier ?

Latest ICON looks similar to last run, very stormy.

The plot thickens. Time will tell.

Which part or parts of the country will be worst hit, if it stays as is

Storm Callum - Thursday/Friday 11/12 October 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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Storm Callum - Thursday/Friday 11/12 October 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST