Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

devnull wrote: »

The kind of people who vote for Farage in the majority won't care if he has a manifesto or not. They just think he talks sense and says it like it is and tells the truth. That may not be correct but this is how these people see it unfortunately.

It is very dangerous to say that the Brexit Party will not get anywhere in a General Election because they do not have a manifesto, because that is a very blinkered view based on your own opinion and my perception from the outside.

What the likes of you and me and those who would be to the left of Farage need to understand, is the people who vote for him see things very differently and what matters to us doesn't really matter to them. To suggest otherwise and to write them off is highly dangerous.

Isn't the bit in bold what 99% of all discussion is on Boards.

Farage ran for Westminster unsuccessfully 5 times. I do suspect that given the disarray that Labour and the Tories are in that should he run in the next GE that he will likely get elected but I also think that the party is popular exlcusively because of it's anti-EU view and no one associated with it thus far has shown any aptitude towards good governance of the UK itself.

I also think that anyone who in any way desires Brexit, voted for them or other Brexit supporting parties meaning the argument that the majority of the country still wants to leave is no longer true.

devnull wrote: »

Yes but my point more was that I know Eurosceptics, both relatives and friends as well as former colleagues and none of them are the slightest bit bothered with if he has a Manifesto anymore. These are the same people who didn't vote for UKIP in previous elections because they didn't know what they stand for.

These people used to think a manifesto and a clear outline of policy was very important to making their decision, but they don't seem to think so anymore so you will see them getting far more votes this time around.

Yes but there is quite a difference in how people view EU elections versus national elections.

Many of the people that didn't care about a manifesto last week would not be as forgiving at a more relevant election. They definitely will get more votes (than UKIP might have been expected to do), but, that is categorically down to the shameful behaviour by Labour and the Conservatives than any belief in UKIP Mark II being a capable alternative.

devnull wrote: »

Honestly the state of UK Politics is embarrassing.

It really is, and while that is somewhat entertaining on some level (purely to see how the wheels actually came off), it is frightening on many more as it does open the possibility to nefarious forces gaining more power.

Already it looks like the next GE will bring about Farage pontificating in the HoC and realistically, what type of government is going to be formed or be able to pass legislation when people like him and others are going to try to soapbox on every issue.

Leroy42 wrote: »

We already know. The ERG and DUP have been doing pretty much that for the last two years

They're in a different league to what Monsieur Farage is capable of....

Will the elected representatives get to sit in the parliament in Brussels before the next Brexit deadline?

If Corbyn really wants to be PM, I don't understand why he doesn't back a 2nd ref as Labour policy.

Surely he would prefer to be PM of the UK in the EU rather than opposition leader with the UK out of the EU.

Can Labour members force out Corbyn or are they basically stuck with him?

Blueshoe wrote: »

Le Pen turned over the French vote too. Also the Italians. I'd imagine there are more countries who have voted anti Eu.
It's healthy to have an opposition voice anyway.
I would still imagine the pro EU left have more seats though.
Unfortunately. But that's politics.

Not really. Just the Italians and some of the Eastern European. France voted for pro European parties (admittedly it was split between multiple parties)

Even then most far right parties had to drop leaving the EU from their manifesto due to the chaos in the UK.

Blueshoe wrote: »

Le Pen turned over the French vote too. Also the Italians. I'd imagine there are more countries who have voted anti Eu.
It's healthy to have an opposition voice anyway.
I would still imagine the pro EU left have more seats though.
Unfortunately. But that's politics.

Well it is not unfortunately if your countries prosperity is linked to a strong EU. But you are right, the pro-EU parties have about 500 seats in the 750 seat parliament. Now not all of these parties see life the same way but if the anti-EU parties bring forward measures to hurt the EU they will easily be outvoted. When you look at the groups as well you have the ECR group as well who I have included in the numbers for parties that could make it difficult for the EU. But when you consider that the Conservatives in the UK is part of this group and they would not count as anti-EU in my eyes the amount of seats that the anti-EU parties has is around 150-200. That is if they all band together which may not be the case.

Also, I think there is a good mix of parties in the EU. There are more pro-EU parties but there is enough variety in this group to ensure that compromise will need to be made and one group will not just be able to dominate. That is a good thing to ensure that you don't get the type of politics we see in the UK where one party can do what they want if they have a majority.

Blueshoe wrote: »

The Brexit party will be the second biggest party in Europe

They'll be the second biggest national party delegation in the European parliament. But that's one of those trivial facts that counts for nothing. National party delegations are not signficant in the European Parliament. And, if past history is anything to go buy, the Brexit Party will be even less significant than most others, since they will mostly neither attend nor vote.

Lucy8080 wrote: »

Ester McVey has just said that it's impossible to bring the people together so if she becomes leader she will stop bothering to try, get the UK out of the European Union with no deal and then figure out what the plan is to do next, like a true populist politician who has no plan at all on what to do.

I think B.J, has been hinting at a similar position. These are soundbites to get power.

If the British public buy into them ,they are kidding themselves . . .

The British public won't get a choice. McVey's pitch is not to the public, but to the branch members of the Tory party who will have the final say in choosing a new leader.

Peston recently pointed out a part of the extension agreement that seemingly has been missed in the UK (though I recall it has been mentioned a number of times on here).

TM agreed that the extension could not involve any opening or renegotiation of the WA.

I say this here, not to point it out as I know mos ton here already know, but to point to the fact that none in the media ever bring it up in discussions with politicians in the UK.

Leroy42 wrote: »

Did he, from my recollection of that interview he stated that the EU had said they wouldn't reopen it, which has been said since the agreement was made. But inherent in that is that TM is somehow simply not asking hard enough. (BTW I have no intention of putting myself through the duress of watching that again!)

My point being that there is a big difference between saying the EU have said they will not reopen the deal and pointing out that the terms of the extension specifically state that the deal cannot be reopened during the extension.

Edit - In saying that in the case of Brexit Party it wouldn't make any difference. In that interview Widdecombe stated they wanted to be part of the negotiations and also they wouldn't bother with any negotiations!

But it was also important that they should be key to negotiations as she opened up with. Which negotiations they were we never got to the bottom of.

I see Corbyn has had his Damascus moment and come out to declare that any agreement should be put to the people in a Ref.

Quite clever really. The the Tories go with No Deal, that of course isn't an agreement and thus no 2nd ref. He knows the current deal will never get through now that TM is gone (if it ever had any change) so in effect he has said nothing.

Or I am being too cynical?

Peregrinus wrote: »

The point of the Brexit Party demanding to be put on the negotiating team would be so they could ensure that the team would not engage in any meaningful negotations. Bit like a vegan demanding to be made manager of an abattoir.

That is harsh on vegans, you may have one who has made a health choice but is fine with others eating meat and who would be great at managing an abattoir...:D, maybe it is more like having an anti-meat campaigner in charge of an abattoir.

Leroy42 wrote: »

I see Corbyn has had his Damascus moment and come out to declare that any agreement should be put to the people in a Ref.

Quite clever really. The the Tories go with No Deal, that of course isn't an agreement and thus no 2nd ref. He knows the current deal will never get through now that TM is gone (if it ever had any change) so in effect he has said nothing.

Or I am being too cynical?

Well they have already voted multiple times to avoid no-deal and Labour has supported this. There is a way to get the deal through, if they attach the 2nd ref condition to it.

As for no-deal, you don't have to vote for it. It is still the default although parliament has shown multiple times that they are against it so they can put pressure on the government to avoid it. The last resort would be to put a motion of no-confidence against the government, but if the PM only states he will not go for a extension and it is less than 2 weeks before the deadline, there will be a no-deal as it will be up to the PM to request an extension and you cannot get a new leader in place in time to avert it.

Basically if the new PM is set on no-deal as a course it will either destroy the country or the Conservative Party. We know what happens if they succeed with delaying and having the country default to no-deal, but if parliament thwarts the PM and stops no-deal they will either have to resign or they will be removed as head of the Conservative Party. The Brexit Party will then be able to shout louder than ever about betrayal and will take more voted from the Conservatives which will allow Labour and the Libdems to sweep up seats.

In some bizarre way it is fascinating to watch the implosion of a party, I just wish the stakes for us wasn't that big.

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I see Lab have kicked Alastair Campbell out of the party for voting Lib Dem. Fair enough in that it's clearly against their membership rules, but why then didn't they take action against Margaret Hodge last week when she advocated lab voters to do the same thing? Smacks of double standards.

Who do they think Kate Hoey votes for?

Or did they not think to kick her out of the party when she was photographed with terrorists, the orange order, gallivanting with Brexit xenophobes?

No standards