Property Market 2019

Bob24 · 22-01-2019 11:01am

Rex Disgusting Tariff wrote: »

That's some difference, given how close they are by car :eek:

Yes, when I was working at Cherrywood before the LUAS extension, the commute time was ironically shorter than after the LUAS started there: the business park had a shuttle bus waiting at the Sandyford LUAS which would bring you to Cherrywood in 10 minutes (and drop you much closer to the offices than the LUAS stop which is 10 minutes walk from the larger office buildings around where Dell is!)

I think they just wanted to cover too many places along the way and in the process they ruined the time benefit of a light rail system vs buses (I was not kidding in saying that if you get a bus at Cherrywood on the N11 it could very likely bring you to town faster that the LUAS, as there is a bus corridor the whole way).

sarachryan · 22-01-2019 12:22pm

Irish times today -

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/personal-finance/has-it-peaked-what-s-going-on-in-the-property-market-1.3762567

Don't know if I am allowed copy it out here. Sorry if I am not. Anyway what do people think? We are thinking of buying and wondering are we Mad to

<snip>

Mod

Sorry sarachryan, we can'l really lift entire articles and re-publish them here.

dor843088 · 22-01-2019 12:57pm

If you go to myhome.ie and search the price change function in dublin alone the amount of significant reductions in asking prices is staggering. The market is wobbling to say the least. If the media start reporting on this then off we go. There are already cases of negative equity now with recent buyers. Scary stuff.

Bob24 · 22-01-2019 12:57pm

sarachryan wrote: »

Irish times today -

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/personal-finance/has-it-peaked-what-s-going-on-in-the-property-market-1.3762567

Don't know if I am allowed copy it out here. Sorry if I am not. Anyway what do people think? We are thinking of buying and wondering are we Mad to

The link says subscriber only for me. What are they saying? Predicting price drops?

sarachryan · 22-01-2019 1:00pm

sarachryan wrote: »

Irish times today -

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/personal-finance/has-it-peaked-what-s-going-on-in-the-property-market-1.3762567

Don't know if I am allowed copy it out here. Sorry if I am not. Anyway what do people think? We are thinking of buying and wondering are we Mad to

<snip>

Mod

Sorry sarachryan, we can'l really lift entire articles and re-publish them here.

Sorry about that. Didn’t know were we allowed post content of article.
Anyway - what to do??? Buy or not??? Aaggghh

beaz2018 · 22-01-2019 1:06pm

sarachryan wrote: »

Sorry about that. Didn’t know were we allowed post content of article.
Anyway - what to do??? Buy or not??? Aaggghh

October-November 2017 was the peak. They are tailing off now considerably.

Browney7 · 22-01-2019 1:18pm

sarachryan wrote: »

Sorry about that. Didn’t know were we allowed post content of article.
Anyway - what to do??? Buy or not??? Aaggghh

It's a slowdown at the moment. There was a structural change to the purchasing rules 2 years ago whereby it was a 10% deposit for the first few hundred thousand and 20% thereafter for FTBs - this also interacted with the help the developers grant. This changed at a pen stroke to just a 10% so immediately that swelled the pool of buyers into a market that had very constrained supply (people who had a 10% deposit were now ready and people who had 15% and 20% had to get a move on). This led to bidding frenzies on anything and everything.

Add to this, the CGT seven year exemption rule was changed to four so people sitting on nice gains could sell earlier and CGT free. Now that things appear to be flatlining, these investors may now seek to exit if the capital gain potential is drying up. People who had boom time one bed apartments are probably reaching an exit point so they can get on with not being landlords.

There hasn't been a market step change in a while so we are probably reaching an equilibrium. The only thing that will bring he market down though is vendors accepting less in order to shift what they have.

zl1whqvjs75cdy · 22-01-2019 1:39pm

beaz2018 wrote: »

October-November 2017 was the peak. They are tailing off now considerably.

Prices went up 7 % last year. Just because we aren't seeing 10% plus growth doesn't mean the market is tanking.

dor843088 · 22-01-2019 2:31pm

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

Prices went up 7 % last year. Just because we aren't seeing 10% plus growth doesn't mean the market is tanking.

Rapid price growth/ frenzied purchasing is exactly what you would expect before a crash . Just like 06/07. I think the market is already correcting with reduced asking prices. How far it will go is anyone's guess.

q85dw7osi4lebg · 22-01-2019 2:42pm

Folks asking prices are irrelevant, check the price register for your area for the real facts and figures.

Asking prices mean nothing.

Some agents start high, some start low, there's no pattern to it.

In my area asking prices haven't increased for 2 years but the price register says differently.

dor843088 · 22-01-2019 2:53pm

Rex Disgusting Tariff wrote: »

Folks asking prices are irrelevant, check the price register for your area for the real facts and figures.

Asking prices mean nothing.

Some agents start high, some start low, there's no pattern to it.

In my area asking prices haven't increased for 2 years but the price register says differently.

Price register tells us what someone was willing to pay months ago. It's a single data point and old data. Just because someone payed x for a property doesn't mean someone else will be silly enough to do the same if demand has fallen. The asking prices are the leading indicator. Sold prices are the trailing indicator.

Moonjet · 22-01-2019 3:05pm

dor843088 wrote: »

The asking prices are the leading indicator.

No they are not.
As previously said on here, some estate agents deliberately undervalue asking price to attract lots of attention and bidders. Others overvalue and hope for 1 really high bid close to or equal the asking price. They are not a leading indicator of anything except the individual EA's strategy.

zl1whqvjs75cdy · 22-01-2019 3:20pm

You'd also always expect asking prices to over shoot the market. I would think that the market is slowing down a bit, but as I've said multiple times before I expect prices to stabilize at 3-4 % increases annually as a normal, healthy market develops. Double digit rises or falls are not what we want. Slow steady growth is the order of the day

zl1whqvjs75cdy · 22-01-2019 3:21pm

dor843088 wrote: »

Price register tells us what someone was willing to pay months ago. It's a single data point and old data. Just because someone payed x for a property doesn't mean someone else will be silly enough to do the same if demand has fallen. The asking prices are the leading indicator. Sold prices are the trailing indicator.

Why would demand fall. Rent through the roof, supply sluggish at best. Job growth strong. People have to live somewhere.

dor843088 · 22-01-2019 3:23pm

Moonjet wrote: »

No they are not.
As previously said on here, some estate agents deliberately undervalue asking price to attract lots of attention and bidders. Others overvalue and hope for 1 really high bid close to or equal the asking price. They are not a leading indicator of anything except the individual EA's strategy.

I am talking about a change/reduction in asking price on properties . House was advertised at 300k lingers on the market then gets reduced to 270k due to no interest. Asking prices not being met is a clear indication you're asking too much. Next logical step swallow your pride and reduce the price. Nothing to do with EA strategy. It's not 3d chess it's supply and demand

Bob24 · 22-01-2019 3:23pm

dor843088 wrote: »

The asking prices are the leading indicator. Sold prices are the trailing indicator.

More precisely: asking prices are an early but very approximative indicator and selling prices are a late but much more accurate indicator.

Both have their use but basically the only significant advantage of an index based on asking prices when it comes to measuring the evolution of property prices is that it eliminates the time lag and allows for immediate assessment of present market trends rather than waiting for a few months. For pretty much everything else selling prices are a better source.

mcbert · 22-01-2019 4:52pm

Just noticed a house for sale for 540k in September 2018 just go back on market for 380k. Beside Phoenix Park.

tigger123 · 22-01-2019 4:56pm

mcbert wrote: »

Just noticed a house for sale for 540k in September 2018 just go back on market for 380k. Beside Phoenix Park.

Either a surveyors report was done on the house that presented massive issues with it, or whoever put it up originally was way, way off in their estimation. That's not a market adjustment, it's just plain getting it wrong the first time round.

dor843088 · 22-01-2019 4:59pm

mcbert wrote: »

Just noticed a house for sale for 540k in September 2018 just go back on market for 380k. Beside Phoenix Park.

There are 100s of reductions on myhome.ie. average seems to be around 5 to 10%. Some a lot more .

mcbert · 22-01-2019 4:59pm

tigger123 wrote: »

Either a surveyors report was done on the house that presented massive issues with it, or whoever put it up originally was way, way off in their estimation. That's not a market adjustment, it's just plain getting it wrong the first time round.

For what its worth, I just sold my own house nearby so I'm somewhat familiar with prices there and it is my feeling that it is a bit of both actually.

Edit: I mean both getting original price wrong but also an adjustment happening too.

Moonjet · 22-01-2019 6:13pm

mcbert wrote: »

For what its worth, I just sold my own house nearby so I'm somewhat familiar with prices there and it is my feeling that it is a bit of both actually.

Edit: I mean both getting original price wrong but also an adjustment happening too.

Post the link to the ad so we can judge for ourselves. 540k to 380k is clearly a huge mistake in the original valuation and not indicative of market trends.

mcbert · 22-01-2019 8:09pm

Moonjet wrote: »

Post the link to the ad so we can judge for ourselves. 540k to 380k is clearly a huge mistake in the original valuation and not indicative of market trends.

Funny. They just updated the ad to 480k. Must have been a typo earlier.

dor843088 · 22-01-2019 8:15pm

mcbert wrote: »

Funny. They just updated the ad to 480k. Must have been a typo earlier.

Well I'd say a reduction of 60k is more in line with current market trends

awec · 22-01-2019 8:19pm

dor843088 wrote: »

Well I'd say a reduction of 60k is more in line with current market trends

Well that's not true.

Dublin (and Ireland) property prices are still rising. They're going up slower than before, but they're still going up.

To be honest though, if the market did trend to a ~10% drop this would not be of much consequence.

The_Conductor · 22-01-2019 8:23pm

awec wrote: »

Well that's not true.

Dublin (and Ireland) property prices are still rising. They're going up slower than before, but they're still going up.

In certain areas. Parts of Dublin West- all the way into the Phoenix Park- are falling, and have been for the past 14 months (according to the CSO). Overall- prices are rising- however, the pace is extremely variable- and masks some consistent falls.............

Browney7 · 22-01-2019 8:24pm

awec wrote: »

Well that's not true.

Dublin (and Ireland) property prices are still rising. They're going up slower than before, but they're still going up.

Until last month they were but the CSO index flatlined between October and November (small decline in Dublin). One swallow a summer does not make and all that though. The Data to February and March (released in May) will be a good bellweather

dor843088 · 22-01-2019 8:25pm

awec wrote: »

Well that's not true.

Dublin (and Ireland) property prices are still rising. They're going up slower than before, but they're still going up.

There is 123 pages of price changes on myhome.ie in Dublin alone at 20 properties a page. That's 2500 properties. 95% are all revised downwards. Properties are not selling . If I remember correctly 11% price rise in 2017 and 3% in 2018 . They will be negative in 2019 in my opinion. The signs are there.

bluelamp · 22-01-2019 8:37pm

awec wrote: »

Well that's not true.

Dublin (and Ireland) property prices are still rising. They're going up slower than before, but they're still going up.

To be honest though, if the market did trend to a ~10% drop this would not be of much consequence.

The most recent statistic from the CSO is November, which showed a reduction. First drop in a couple of years AFAIK.

September +0.9
October +0.3
November -0.5

Too soon to say if it's a downward trend developing.

Bob24 · 22-01-2019 9:08pm

bluelamp wrote: »

The most recent statistic from the CSO is November, which showed a reduction. First drop in a couple of years AFAIK.

September +0.9
October +0.3
November -0.5

Too soon to say if it's a downward trend developing.

There were no MoM drops in 2017 (nationally), but we had two in 2016 (Nov-Dec and Jan-Feb) and another two in 2015 (Oct-Nov and Jan-Feb). So having one in 2018 is not such a rare occurrence and within the trend of these things more likely to happen in the October to February period.

This drop might be different and the start of a trend, but I would say its existence itself is not an unlikely event to worry about.

mkdon · 22-01-2019 9:12pm

when will December's figures be announced given we are now at tail end of january... is there a specific day in the month... is there somewhere where can find a more detailed breakdown on parts of Dublin that have risen or fallen in each month on average?

Bob24 · 22-01-2019 11:04pm

mkdon wrote: »

when will December's figures be announced given we are now at tail end of january... is there a specific day in the month... is there somewhere where can find a more detailed breakdown on parts of Dublin that have risen or fallen in each month on average?

Should be between the 10th and 15th of February. There always is lag and the November figures were for exemple only published last week.

Thargor · 27-01-2019 8:55pm

Is help to buy ending in December or does it always get extended?

Do banks take into account the help to buy refund when doing their calcs?

Evd-Burner · 28-01-2019 2:45pm

Thargor wrote: »

Is help to buy ending in December or does it always get extended?

Do banks take into account the help to buy refund when doing their calcs?

It is ending in December, but if you sign the contract before December and buy the house in say February you will still get it.

Yes they do take it into account towards your deposit.

beaz2018 · 28-01-2019 3:05pm

Evd-Burner wrote: »

It is ending in December, but if you sign the contract before December and buy the house in say February you will still get it.

Yes they do take it into account towards your deposit.

An extension to the December date is inevitable.

Evd-Burner · 28-01-2019 5:44pm

beaz2018 wrote: »

An extension to the December date is inevitable.

Any links or evidence for that?

q85dw7osi4lebg · 28-01-2019 5:57pm

Have heard developers are pushing for a 5 year extension in order to be able to commit to new developments. Makes sense really that it is continued given the housing shortage.

Wouldn't make sense to start a new development knowing it's going to expire in 11 months. Or at least it would make less sense.

Mickiemcfist · 28-01-2019 6:10pm

Rex Disgusting Tariff wrote: »

Have heard developers are pushing for a 5 year extension in order to be able to commit to new developments. Makes sense really that it is continued given the housing shortage.

Wouldn't make sense to start a new development knowing it's going to expire in 11 months. Or at least it would make less sense.

Pretty sure they'll manage to sell them regardless.

soirish · 29-01-2019 4:45pm

The market is changing with Help to buy coming to an end and more buildings under construction.

q85dw7osi4lebg · 29-01-2019 5:00pm

Mickiemcfist wrote: »

Pretty sure they'll manage to sell them regardless.

I'm sure they would but why not push for an incentive if possible.

Moonjet · 31-01-2019 1:12am

Barclays are moving the management of 190 billion euro of assets to Dublin over Brexit fears, creating an additional 150 jobs in the city centre. A few more of these announcements and we could start seeing a real impact on the Dublin property market very soon. Look what happened to London property market as they grew their role as the world's financial hub. Now it's slowly slipping away.

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/business-47060676

mkdon · 31-01-2019 1:48am

Moonjet wrote: »

Barclays are moving the management of 190 billion euro of assets to Dublin over Brexit fears, creating an additional 150 jobs in the city centre. A few more of these announcements and we could start seeing a real impact on the Dublin property market very soon. Look what happened to London property market as they grew their role as the world's financial hub. Now it's slowly slipping away.

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/business-47060676

brexit is also rumoured to cause 55000 job losses in Ireland

many of them in dublin ....

those 150 how many of them are looking to buy rather than rent ?

of those how many would be mortgage approved

Zenify · 31-01-2019 11:55am

Overall Brexit will reduce jobs in Ireland not add. Hopefully we can get as many new jobs as we can out of it, but there's not going to be anything positive about Brexit for Ireland.

Graham · 31-01-2019 12:08pm

Given nobody has a notion what/if/when/how Brexit will pan out, fair play to those able to predict the outcome.

tigger123 · 31-01-2019 12:13pm

Theresa May, Michel Barnier and Donald Tusk have zero clue what the next few months will bring. It's impossible to predict what will actually happen, never mind what the knock effects may be.

BBFAN · 31-01-2019 8:49pm

mkdon wrote: »

brexit is also rumoured to cause 55000 job losses in Ireland

many of them in dublin ....

those 150 how many of them are looking to buy rather than rent ?

of those how many would be mortgage approved

55,000 job losses in Ireland is a ridiculous figure to suggest.

The_Conductor · 31-01-2019 9:04pm

BBFAN wrote: »

55,000 job losses in Ireland is a ridiculous figure to suggest.

It is a bit pulled out of thin air- but if you look at how they broke down the different sectors- and where a lot of those jobs are (the types of jobs and the locations)- it rapidly becomes more transparent in nature. E.g. our primary and secondary food sectors have the UK as their major market- if you look at Bord Bia's annual report- it gives you a good flavour (if you'll excuse the pun) of what those exports are- and where they're going (and in what volumes). We may have massively diversified away from the UK over the last 10 years even- however, they remain our single biggest destination for many food and related exports.

I'm not trying to say 55,000 jobs are at risk- god only knows how many are- but the number of jobs at risk is probably hundreds of times higher than the number of UK based jobs that migrate over here. One banker for 100 food preparation technicians (or whatever they call them)? We're possibly on those sort of scales..........

If a lot of the holders of these endangered jobs are recent economic emigrants to Ireland- perhaps they will simply move to find work elsewhere- who knows?

Its plausible that expensive Dublin property- of a kin likely to appeal to bankers and high rollers- will boom- while absolutely nothing whatsoever happens to the lower strata of the property market- those million pound bankers aren't interested in a nice 2-3 bed in up and coming Stonybatter or elsewhere- they want a luxury dwelling in walk-in condition- and they want flexibility to move if and when their posts subsequently move again (which is likely- look at the Irish financial jobs that moved to Germany and France in the last 12 months).

Its a murky crystal ball- and its dangerous to try and predict how its going clear- or indeed, if its going to clear. Dan Quaile was onto something with his known unknowns, and his unknown unknowns..........

Have a good evening all.

Askthe EA · 01-02-2019 2:31pm

soirish wrote: »

The market is changing with Help to buy coming to an end and more buildings under construction.

Is it coming to an end? End of 2019 already and whos to say it wont be extended again?

The Student · 01-02-2019 2:47pm

A no deal Brexit will have major implications for Ireland. Prices of imported goods from the UK will either rise due to import tariffs or stay as they are due to a fall in the value of Sterling.

Exports to the UK will become more expensive for one or both of the above reasons.

Proposed changes in the higher income tax band will not happen. Govt expenditure will increase as a result of Brexit, property prices will most likely stagnate as people will have less money to purchase with, developers will be less likely to build to sell to individuals as individuals will not have access to the funds needed to make it viable for the developers. The help to buy probably will be extended.

I suspect build to rent will increase and the Govt will give tax incentives to assist this model to help ease the housing crisis. The govt needs to deal with the legacy mortgage defaulters due to the pressure the Banks are facing from the ECB regarding their non performing loans. With an election looming this is a thorny issue no politician wants to grasp.

The ordinary person on the street is the one who I expect to suffer the most. Unless you have cash to buy outright, or are in a very very secure job I think anybody looking to buy a first property or trade up is in for another challenging couple of years.

ELM327 · 01-02-2019 3:08pm

Brexit is currently an unquantified risk. That's the worst thing for a market to price in.
Once the inevitable happens and they extend article 50 ad infinitum and don't leave (or leave but stay in customs union + single market) then all of the above post from The Student will be shown for the scaremongering bunkum that it is.

devlinio · 02-02-2019 1:03pm

I won't be buying for a few years, but at what income level would you be granted a wage to mortgage salary exemption.

Property Market 2019

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