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Property Market 2019

The_Conductor

As is now becoming a custom- we'll start a new thread to discuss all topics as they pertain to the property market in general, alongside people's predictions and experiences- for the year 2019.

Its going to be an interesting year- with Brexit, if it comes to pass, at the end of March- and to misquote Donald Rumsfeld - the unknown unknowns that are likely to jump out at us, when we least expect them to.

2018 thread is now closed.

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hmmm

Zenify wrote: »

What is Cherrywood lacking compared to Sandyford?

I'm really shocked about this. I never expected people to be saying negative things about Cherrywood. There's over 4,000 new homes right on a luas stop and the m50, near the coast and dart, lots of employment with offices and some already established like Dell.

This is what we need to solve our housing crises thousands of homes in strategic locations with lots of parks built around the houses. Transport and employment at the doorstep.

It's a "strategic location" only because the planners approved vast numbers of apartments to be built there when the real demand is for apartments in the city. Unfortunately due to a combination of NIMBYism and weak politicians, we can't build sufficient density in the city centre, and we end up with a Cherrywood. The LUAS out that direction is a light rail system which does not have unlimited capacity.

The building themselves and the surrounding area might be very nice, but that misses the two big points - those renting would probably prefer to rent closer to town, and it is not going to lead to much of a community spirit when there is so many transient renters in a concentrated area.

Sandyford has great transport links, and many nice apartments, but where are the bars, restaurants and coffee shops to really bring a bit of life to the place? It's a place people come from, not go to.

zl1whqvjs75cdy

I lived in sandyford for a bit. Found it very soulless. Was absolutely fantastic for getting in and out to town but we didn't really do much in sandyford itself.

Zenify

http://cherrywoodretail.ie

It's getting everything you need to live. Accomodation, work, schools, food, shops, entertainment.

I heard that the planning authority was being very clever and making sure the parks are built first too, as years ago builders got planning with the parks and built the apartments first and never built the parks.

Someone mentioned that it's not as close to Dundrum, I think this will be a new place that people will want to be near and dundrum or town will be irrelevant to people living here. Only a few minutes extra on luas anyway compared to Sandyford.

Bob24

Zenify wrote: »

Only a few minutes extra on luas anyway compared to Sandyford.

Having worked in Cherrywood for years (before the LUAS and after it stared), it is honestly a bit of a stretch to say “only of few minutes extra”. For a starter not all trams go to cherrywood so the average wait time is longer (that might change but currently it is the case). And the with my experience of doing it every day the commute from Cherrywood to Stephen’s Green feels like an eternity compared to starting the journey from Sandyford. It has a lot to do with the fact that the track is for the most part straight and with a balanced number of stops up to Sandyford, but if you look at it on a map it is taking a lot more (sometimes sharp) turns and probably trying to cover too many places which slows it down a lot. My experience is that while the LUAS is the more reliable option, once you are on it a bus on the N11 corridor is actually likely to bring you from Cherrywood to Dublin City center faster than a tram.

Also as someone mentioned the LUAS is already over capacity at rush hours without those new homes being delivered. I know there is a plan to upgrade part of the route (not down to cherrywood) to a metro system but if and when that will happen is hard to tell, so that could be problematic as well.

q85dw7osi4lebg

How long does it take to get into town on the Luas from Cherrywood ?

Brego888

Zenify wrote: »

Someone mentioned that it's not as close to Dundrum, I think this will be a new place that people will want to be near and dundrum or town will be irrelevant to people living here.

That's a massive stretch

Zenify

Rex Disgusting Tariff wrote: »

How long does it take to get into town on the Luas from Cherrywood ?

40min just from a quick Google. I've actually never gone past sandyford on the luas.

mkdon

any idea how much the rent will be for the average unit or is that yet tbc?

Bob24

Rex Disgusting Tariff wrote: »

How long does it take to get into town on the Luas from Cherrywood ?

42 mins to Bride’s Glen (which I think is the closest stop to the new development) vs 24 mins to Sandyford, so almost double. Also on 2 trams out of 3 go past Sandyford. Good thing is that at least if someone is commuting from there towards town in the morning they’ll likely get a seat. But most travellers getting on further on the route will be packed like sardines, if they manage to get on the tram.

q85dw7osi4lebg

Bob24 wrote: »

42 mins from Stephen’s Green to Bride’s Glen (which I think is the closest stop to the new development) vs 24 mins to Sandyford, so almost double. Also only 2 trams out of 3 go past Sandyford so taking the increased average wait time into account the total journey time is a bit more than doubled. Good thing is that at least if someone is commuting from there towards town in the morning they’ll likely get a seat (although very little chance on the way back). But most travellers getting on further on the route will be packed like sardines, if they manage to get on the tram.

That's some difference, given how close they are by car :eek:

Bob24

Rex Disgusting Tariff wrote: »

That's some difference, given how close they are by car :eek:

Yes, when I was working at Cherrywood before the LUAS extension, the commute time was ironically shorter than after the LUAS started there: the business park had a shuttle bus waiting at the Sandyford LUAS which would bring you to Cherrywood in 10 minutes (and drop you much closer to the offices than the LUAS stop which is 10 minutes walk from the larger office buildings around where Dell is!)

I think they just wanted to cover too many places along the way and in the process they ruined the time benefit of a light rail system vs buses (I was not kidding in saying that if you get a bus at Cherrywood on the N11 it could very likely bring you to town faster that the LUAS, as there is a bus corridor the whole way).

sarachryan

Irish times today -

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/personal-finance/has-it-peaked-what-s-going-on-in-the-property-market-1.3762567

Don't know if I am allowed copy it out here. Sorry if I am not. Anyway what do people think? We are thinking of buying and wondering are we Mad to

<snip>

Mod

Sorry sarachryan, we can'l really lift entire articles and re-publish them here.

dor843088

If you go to myhome.ie and search the price change function in dublin alone the amount of significant reductions in asking prices is staggering. The market is wobbling to say the least. If the media start reporting on this then off we go. There are already cases of negative equity now with recent buyers. Scary stuff.

Bob24

sarachryan wrote: »

Irish times today -

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/personal-finance/has-it-peaked-what-s-going-on-in-the-property-market-1.3762567

Don't know if I am allowed copy it out here. Sorry if I am not. Anyway what do people think? We are thinking of buying and wondering are we Mad to

The link says subscriber only for me. What are they saying? Predicting price drops?

sarachryan

sarachryan wrote: »

Irish times today -

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/personal-finance/has-it-peaked-what-s-going-on-in-the-property-market-1.3762567

Don't know if I am allowed copy it out here. Sorry if I am not. Anyway what do people think? We are thinking of buying and wondering are we Mad to

<snip>

Mod

Sorry sarachryan, we can'l really lift entire articles and re-publish them here.

Sorry about that. Didn’t know were we allowed post content of article.
Anyway - what to do??? Buy or not??? Aaggghh

beaz2018

sarachryan wrote: »

Sorry about that. Didn’t know were we allowed post content of article.
Anyway - what to do??? Buy or not??? Aaggghh

October-November 2017 was the peak. They are tailing off now considerably.

Browney7

sarachryan wrote: »

Sorry about that. Didn’t know were we allowed post content of article.
Anyway - what to do??? Buy or not??? Aaggghh

It's a slowdown at the moment. There was a structural change to the purchasing rules 2 years ago whereby it was a 10% deposit for the first few hundred thousand and 20% thereafter for FTBs - this also interacted with the help the developers grant. This changed at a pen stroke to just a 10% so immediately that swelled the pool of buyers into a market that had very constrained supply (people who had a 10% deposit were now ready and people who had 15% and 20% had to get a move on). This led to bidding frenzies on anything and everything.

Add to this, the CGT seven year exemption rule was changed to four so people sitting on nice gains could sell earlier and CGT free. Now that things appear to be flatlining, these investors may now seek to exit if the capital gain potential is drying up. People who had boom time one bed apartments are probably reaching an exit point so they can get on with not being landlords.

There hasn't been a market step change in a while so we are probably reaching an equilibrium. The only thing that will bring he market down though is vendors accepting less in order to shift what they have.

zl1whqvjs75cdy

beaz2018 wrote: »

October-November 2017 was the peak. They are tailing off now considerably.

Prices went up 7 % last year. Just because we aren't seeing 10% plus growth doesn't mean the market is tanking.

dor843088

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

Prices went up 7 % last year. Just because we aren't seeing 10% plus growth doesn't mean the market is tanking.

Rapid price growth/ frenzied purchasing is exactly what you would expect before a crash . Just like 06/07. I think the market is already correcting with reduced asking prices. How far it will go is anyone's guess.

q85dw7osi4lebg

Folks asking prices are irrelevant, check the price register for your area for the real facts and figures.

Asking prices mean nothing.

Some agents start high, some start low, there's no pattern to it.

In my area asking prices haven't increased for 2 years but the price register says differently.

dor843088

Rex Disgusting Tariff wrote: »

Folks asking prices are irrelevant, check the price register for your area for the real facts and figures.

Asking prices mean nothing.

Some agents start high, some start low, there's no pattern to it.

In my area asking prices haven't increased for 2 years but the price register says differently.

Price register tells us what someone was willing to pay months ago. It's a single data point and old data. Just because someone payed x for a property doesn't mean someone else will be silly enough to do the same if demand has fallen. The asking prices are the leading indicator. Sold prices are the trailing indicator.

Moonjet

dor843088 wrote: »

The asking prices are the leading indicator.

No they are not.
As previously said on here, some estate agents deliberately undervalue asking price to attract lots of attention and bidders. Others overvalue and hope for 1 really high bid close to or equal the asking price. They are not a leading indicator of anything except the individual EA's strategy.

zl1whqvjs75cdy

You'd also always expect asking prices to over shoot the market. I would think that the market is slowing down a bit, but as I've said multiple times before I expect prices to stabilize at 3-4 % increases annually as a normal, healthy market develops. Double digit rises or falls are not what we want. Slow steady growth is the order of the day

zl1whqvjs75cdy

dor843088 wrote: »

Price register tells us what someone was willing to pay months ago. It's a single data point and old data. Just because someone payed x for a property doesn't mean someone else will be silly enough to do the same if demand has fallen. The asking prices are the leading indicator. Sold prices are the trailing indicator.

Why would demand fall. Rent through the roof, supply sluggish at best. Job growth strong. People have to live somewhere.

dor843088

Moonjet wrote: »

No they are not.
As previously said on here, some estate agents deliberately undervalue asking price to attract lots of attention and bidders. Others overvalue and hope for 1 really high bid close to or equal the asking price. They are not a leading indicator of anything except the individual EA's strategy.

I am talking about a change/reduction in asking price on properties . House was advertised at 300k lingers on the market then gets reduced to 270k due to no interest. Asking prices not being met is a clear indication you're asking too much. Next logical step swallow your pride and reduce the price. Nothing to do with EA strategy. It's not 3d chess it's supply and demand

Bob24

dor843088 wrote: »

The asking prices are the leading indicator. Sold prices are the trailing indicator.

More precisely: asking prices are an early but very approximative indicator and selling prices are a late but much more accurate indicator.

Both have their use but basically the only significant advantage of an index based on asking prices when it comes to measuring the evolution of property prices is that it eliminates the time lag and allows for immediate assessment of present market trends rather than waiting for a few months. For pretty much everything else selling prices are a better source.

mcbert

Just noticed a house for sale for 540k in September 2018 just go back on market for 380k. Beside Phoenix Park.

tigger123

mcbert wrote: »

Just noticed a house for sale for 540k in September 2018 just go back on market for 380k. Beside Phoenix Park.

Either a surveyors report was done on the house that presented massive issues with it, or whoever put it up originally was way, way off in their estimation. That's not a market adjustment, it's just plain getting it wrong the first time round.

dor843088

mcbert wrote: »

Just noticed a house for sale for 540k in September 2018 just go back on market for 380k. Beside Phoenix Park.

There are 100s of reductions on myhome.ie. average seems to be around 5 to 10%. Some a lot more .

mcbert

tigger123 wrote: »

Either a surveyors report was done on the house that presented massive issues with it, or whoever put it up originally was way, way off in their estimation. That's not a market adjustment, it's just plain getting it wrong the first time round.

For what its worth, I just sold my own house nearby so I'm somewhat familiar with prices there and it is my feeling that it is a bit of both actually.

Edit: I mean both getting original price wrong but also an adjustment happening too.