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Property Market 2019

The_Conductor

As is now becoming a custom- we'll start a new thread to discuss all topics as they pertain to the property market in general, alongside people's predictions and experiences- for the year 2019.

Its going to be an interesting year- with Brexit, if it comes to pass, at the end of March- and to misquote Donald Rumsfeld - the unknown unknowns that are likely to jump out at us, when we least expect them to.

2018 thread is now closed.

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The_Conductor

BBFAN wrote: »

55,000 job losses in Ireland is a ridiculous figure to suggest.

It is a bit pulled out of thin air- but if you look at how they broke down the different sectors- and where a lot of those jobs are (the types of jobs and the locations)- it rapidly becomes more transparent in nature. E.g. our primary and secondary food sectors have the UK as their major market- if you look at Bord Bia's annual report- it gives you a good flavour (if you'll excuse the pun) of what those exports are- and where they're going (and in what volumes). We may have massively diversified away from the UK over the last 10 years even- however, they remain our single biggest destination for many food and related exports.

I'm not trying to say 55,000 jobs are at risk- god only knows how many are- but the number of jobs at risk is probably hundreds of times higher than the number of UK based jobs that migrate over here. One banker for 100 food preparation technicians (or whatever they call them)? We're possibly on those sort of scales..........

If a lot of the holders of these endangered jobs are recent economic emigrants to Ireland- perhaps they will simply move to find work elsewhere- who knows?

Its plausible that expensive Dublin property- of a kin likely to appeal to bankers and high rollers- will boom- while absolutely nothing whatsoever happens to the lower strata of the property market- those million pound bankers aren't interested in a nice 2-3 bed in up and coming Stonybatter or elsewhere- they want a luxury dwelling in walk-in condition- and they want flexibility to move if and when their posts subsequently move again (which is likely- look at the Irish financial jobs that moved to Germany and France in the last 12 months).

Its a murky crystal ball- and its dangerous to try and predict how its going clear- or indeed, if its going to clear. Dan Quaile was onto something with his known unknowns, and his unknown unknowns..........

Have a good evening all.

BBFAN

mkdon wrote: »

brexit is also rumoured to cause 55000 job losses in Ireland

many of them in dublin ....

those 150 how many of them are looking to buy rather than rent ?

of those how many would be mortgage approved

55,000 job losses in Ireland is a ridiculous figure to suggest.

tigger123

Theresa May, Michel Barnier and Donald Tusk have zero clue what the next few months will bring. It's impossible to predict what will actually happen, never mind what the knock effects may be.

Graham

Given nobody has a notion what/if/when/how Brexit will pan out, fair play to those able to predict the outcome.

Zenify

Overall Brexit will reduce jobs in Ireland not add. Hopefully we can get as many new jobs as we can out of it, but there's not going to be anything positive about Brexit for Ireland.

mkdon

Moonjet wrote: »

Barclays are moving the management of 190 billion euro of assets to Dublin over Brexit fears, creating an additional 150 jobs in the city centre. A few more of these announcements and we could start seeing a real impact on the Dublin property market very soon. Look what happened to London property market as they grew their role as the world's financial hub. Now it's slowly slipping away.

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/business-47060676

brexit is also rumoured to cause 55000 job losses in Ireland

many of them in dublin ....

those 150 how many of them are looking to buy rather than rent ?

of those how many would be mortgage approved

Moonjet

Barclays are moving the management of 190 billion euro of assets to Dublin over Brexit fears, creating an additional 150 jobs in the city centre. A few more of these announcements and we could start seeing a real impact on the Dublin property market very soon. Look what happened to London property market as they grew their role as the world's financial hub. Now it's slowly slipping away.

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/business-47060676

q85dw7osi4lebg

Mickiemcfist wrote: »

Pretty sure they'll manage to sell them regardless.

I'm sure they would but why not push for an incentive if possible.

soirish

The market is changing with Help to buy coming to an end and more buildings under construction.

Mickiemcfist

Rex Disgusting Tariff wrote: »

Have heard developers are pushing for a 5 year extension in order to be able to commit to new developments. Makes sense really that it is continued given the housing shortage.

Wouldn't make sense to start a new development knowing it's going to expire in 11 months. Or at least it would make less sense.

Pretty sure they'll manage to sell them regardless.

q85dw7osi4lebg

Have heard developers are pushing for a 5 year extension in order to be able to commit to new developments. Makes sense really that it is continued given the housing shortage.

Wouldn't make sense to start a new development knowing it's going to expire in 11 months. Or at least it would make less sense.

Evd-Burner

beaz2018 wrote: »

An extension to the December date is inevitable.

Any links or evidence for that?

beaz2018

Evd-Burner wrote: »

It is ending in December, but if you sign the contract before December and buy the house in say February you will still get it.

Yes they do take it into account towards your deposit.

An extension to the December date is inevitable.

Evd-Burner

Thargor wrote: »

Is help to buy ending in December or does it always get extended?

Do banks take into account the help to buy refund when doing their calcs?

It is ending in December, but if you sign the contract before December and buy the house in say February you will still get it.

Yes they do take it into account towards your deposit.

Thargor

Is help to buy ending in December or does it always get extended?

Do banks take into account the help to buy refund when doing their calcs?

Bob24

mkdon wrote: »

when will December's figures be announced given we are now at tail end of january... is there a specific day in the month... is there somewhere where can find a more detailed breakdown on parts of Dublin that have risen or fallen in each month on average?

Should be between the 10th and 15th of February. There always is lag and the November figures were for exemple only published last week.

mkdon

when will December's figures be announced given we are now at tail end of january... is there a specific day in the month... is there somewhere where can find a more detailed breakdown on parts of Dublin that have risen or fallen in each month on average?

Bob24

bluelamp wrote: »

The most recent statistic from the CSO is November, which showed a reduction. First drop in a couple of years AFAIK.

September +0.9
October +0.3
November -0.5

Too soon to say if it's a downward trend developing.

There were no MoM drops in 2017 (nationally), but we had two in 2016 (Nov-Dec and Jan-Feb) and another two in 2015 (Oct-Nov and Jan-Feb). So having one in 2018 is not such a rare occurrence and within the trend of these things more likely to happen in the October to February period.

This drop might be different and the start of a trend, but I would say its existence itself is not an unlikely event to worry about.

bluelamp

awec wrote: »

Well that's not true.

Dublin (and Ireland) property prices are still rising. They're going up slower than before, but they're still going up.

To be honest though, if the market did trend to a ~10% drop this would not be of much consequence.

The most recent statistic from the CSO is November, which showed a reduction. First drop in a couple of years AFAIK.

September +0.9
October +0.3
November -0.5

Too soon to say if it's a downward trend developing.

dor843088

awec wrote: »

Well that's not true.

Dublin (and Ireland) property prices are still rising. They're going up slower than before, but they're still going up.

There is 123 pages of price changes on myhome.ie in Dublin alone at 20 properties a page. That's 2500 properties. 95% are all revised downwards. Properties are not selling . If I remember correctly 11% price rise in 2017 and 3% in 2018 . They will be negative in 2019 in my opinion. The signs are there.

Browney7

awec wrote: »

Well that's not true.

Dublin (and Ireland) property prices are still rising. They're going up slower than before, but they're still going up.

Until last month they were but the CSO index flatlined between October and November (small decline in Dublin). One swallow a summer does not make and all that though. The Data to February and March (released in May) will be a good bellweather

The_Conductor

awec wrote: »

Well that's not true.

Dublin (and Ireland) property prices are still rising. They're going up slower than before, but they're still going up.

In certain areas. Parts of Dublin West- all the way into the Phoenix Park- are falling, and have been for the past 14 months (according to the CSO). Overall- prices are rising- however, the pace is extremely variable- and masks some consistent falls.............

awec

dor843088 wrote: »

Well I'd say a reduction of 60k is more in line with current market trends

Well that's not true.

Dublin (and Ireland) property prices are still rising. They're going up slower than before, but they're still going up.

To be honest though, if the market did trend to a ~10% drop this would not be of much consequence.

dor843088

mcbert wrote: »

Funny. They just updated the ad to 480k. Must have been a typo earlier.

Well I'd say a reduction of 60k is more in line with current market trends

mcbert

Moonjet wrote: »

Post the link to the ad so we can judge for ourselves. 540k to 380k is clearly a huge mistake in the original valuation and not indicative of market trends.

Funny. They just updated the ad to 480k. Must have been a typo earlier.

Moonjet

mcbert wrote: »

For what its worth, I just sold my own house nearby so I'm somewhat familiar with prices there and it is my feeling that it is a bit of both actually.

Edit: I mean both getting original price wrong but also an adjustment happening too.

Post the link to the ad so we can judge for ourselves. 540k to 380k is clearly a huge mistake in the original valuation and not indicative of market trends.

mcbert

tigger123 wrote: »

Either a surveyors report was done on the house that presented massive issues with it, or whoever put it up originally was way, way off in their estimation. That's not a market adjustment, it's just plain getting it wrong the first time round.

For what its worth, I just sold my own house nearby so I'm somewhat familiar with prices there and it is my feeling that it is a bit of both actually.

Edit: I mean both getting original price wrong but also an adjustment happening too.

dor843088

mcbert wrote: »

Just noticed a house for sale for 540k in September 2018 just go back on market for 380k. Beside Phoenix Park.

There are 100s of reductions on myhome.ie. average seems to be around 5 to 10%. Some a lot more .

tigger123

mcbert wrote: »

Just noticed a house for sale for 540k in September 2018 just go back on market for 380k. Beside Phoenix Park.

Either a surveyors report was done on the house that presented massive issues with it, or whoever put it up originally was way, way off in their estimation. That's not a market adjustment, it's just plain getting it wrong the first time round.

mcbert

Just noticed a house for sale for 540k in September 2018 just go back on market for 380k. Beside Phoenix Park.