Brexit Impact on Northern Ireland

Fionn1952 · 17-03-2021 1:00pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Agreed. Which is why I didn't suggest that.

You've asked how they'll maintain their British identity.....surely that is suggesting that identity is at risk should a border poll pass? If not immediately afterwards, when is the cut off point for it? What's the trigger that you think puts their identity at risk? Or if it isn't at risk, why would anyone be worrying about it?

Charles Babbage · 17-03-2021 1:03pm

dogbert27 wrote: »

In a United Ireland do the people of Northern Ireland automatically become "Irish citizens"?

Yes, the few who aren't already Irish citizens.

If the Unionists want to remain "British citizens" in a United Ireland and Britain is outside of the EU do these people now require visas or will there be an exemption?

If they insist on not using their Irish citizenship then there might be some consequences for this. That is the same as now.

.

Are they given the opportunity to re-locate to Britain?

Of course, they can just go to Britain if they wish. But do you mean should they get a grant to go to Britain? People in publicly owned housing should be facilitated, if they give up their house here. People working in the civil service should be allowed transfer their job.

Professor Moriarty · 17-03-2021 1:52pm

Fionn1952 wrote: »

You've asked how they'll maintain their British identity.....surely that is suggesting that identity is at risk should a border poll pass? If not immediately afterwards, when is the cut off point for it? What's the trigger that you think puts their identity at risk? Or if it isn't at risk, why would anyone be worrying about it?

I asked that question in response to Francie saying "There is no issue with me if they want to maintain their British identity." A perfectly reasonable question. Context is everything.

Regarding your questions... If a border poll passes, no matter how it is approached, many Unionists will feel that their identity is under threat. How many and to what degree remains to be seen. But it is just a fact that many Unionists will feel that their identity is under threat. What do I think the trigger is for British Unionism's identity entering an Irish republic? Well, they are British and they are Unionists.

Again, I'll repeat myself. Such questions underline the need for careful consideration of all economic, societal, cultural and political issues prior to any referendum. Clear and unambiguous facts for all to see and understand. As much as possible, mitigation of economic costs and agreed change within the Republic to ensure that Unionism feels at home. That is the quickest way to a UI.

Professor Moriarty · 17-03-2021 1:54pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I'm not handwaving anything away.

I am adamant that Unionism be allowed to propose what they want and that it is considered.

A UI is likely if a majority vote for it...full stop. That has already been agreed by a majority on this island.
That will involve compromise by all, but not capitulation.
And an acceptance that you won't get everything you want.

Indeed. And compromise is a two-way street.

17-03-2021 1:55pm

Any unionists who really couldn't stomach a new UI could sell up and move to Scotland or the North of England. Back home effectively.

PringleDemon · 17-03-2021 1:56pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Any unionists who really couldn't stomach a new UI could sell up and move to Scotland or the North of England. Back home effectively.

Where they would be treated as Irish by the locals....

FrancieBrady · 17-03-2021 2:14pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Indeed. And compromise is a two-way street.

Nobody suggested any different.

Professor Moriarty · 17-03-2021 2:19pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Nobody suggested any different.

Oh yes they did.

BonnieSituation · 17-03-2021 2:37pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Indeed. And compromise is a two-way street.

It's a two way street that apparently only nationalists have to walk down.

Honestly, what should we do for Unionists?

You're so concerned for their mental health that perhaps you have something in mind for them that could help?

Do you think we'll repeat the mistakes of Craig for some reason? Because there's absolutely no suggestion that we'll suddenly descend into being sectarian on day one.

Professor Moriarty · 17-03-2021 2:43pm

BonnieSituation wrote: »

It's a two way street that apparently only nationalists have to walk down.

If that's you interpretation. I wouldn't agree with it though.

Honestly, what should we do for Unionists?

In the first instance, ask them what, if anything, would persuade them to enter an Irish republic in the future.

You're so concerned for their mental health that perhaps you have something in mind for them that could help?

Can you point out where I mentioned mental health? Actually, don't bother because we both know that I didn't.

Do you think we'll repeat the mistakes of Craig for some reason? Because there's absolutely no suggestion that we'll suddenly descend into being sectarian on day one.

The world is such a different place today that Craig is irrelevant. If by "we" you mean people on this island, then there is plenty of sectarianism. More than enough.

Fionn1952 · 17-03-2021 2:50pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

If that's you interpretation. I wouldn't agree with it though.

In the first instance, ask them what, if anything, would persuade them to enter an Irish republic in the future.

Can you point out where I mentioned mental health? Actually, don't bother because we both know that I didn't.

The world is such a different place today that Craig is irrelevant. If by "we" you mean people on this island, then there is plenty of sectarianism. More than enough.

And if they refuse to engage, as they largely have so far? Tell Nationalists in the North their opinions don't matter and we'll just go back to the good old days of the Unionist veto?

Outreach is certainly important (and is happening), but you can't force engagement when significant sections see even discussing what they'd consider acceptable as already an unacceptable compromise.

20silkcut · 17-03-2021 3:00pm

PringleDemon wrote: »

Where they would be treated as Irish by the locals....

And a lot of the locals there likely could be of Pakistani, Indian, or south East Asian extraction.
And gay marriage and abortion etc is tolerated.

Ulster is the unionist Shangri la. They won’t move anywhere. They would have left years ago if the answer to their problems were in England.

Professor Moriarty · 17-03-2021 3:04pm

Fionn1952 wrote: »

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

And if they refuse to engage, as they largely have so far? Tell Nationalists in the North their opinions don't matter and we'll just go back to the good old days of the Unionist veto?

Outreach is certainly important (and is happening), but you can't force engagement when significant sections see even discussing what they'd consider acceptable as already an unacceptable compromise.

No, you keep on persuading. Pointing out realities. Such as the probable break up of the UK. Such as some Unionist parties being nothing more than a useful idiots for the Tories. Such as joining Ireland in the EU being in their long term interests. There are many persuasive arguments.

Just right now, they simply don't have to listen to them. When the time comes and they aren't in such a relatively safe position politically, have your economic, political, cultural and social arguments ready. Have clear and unambiguous reasons why they will be better off in a UI. In that context, be prepared to compromise and negotiate compromise from Unionism. Make it as attractive and seamless as possible when their ties to London began to unravel. Ditto prior to any referendum in the Republic to ensure it passes.

Ireland should be doing this now. Proper research into costs. Possible changes in Ireland to make it easier for Unionism. Possible compromises required from Unionism. Consultation with as many relevant people in the UK, US and EU who will engage. And so on. Get the facts and plan for change. Propose viable alternatives to existing realities. Fastest way to a UI.

moon2 · 17-03-2021 3:07pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

In the first instance, ask them what, if anything, would persuade them to enter an Irish republic in the future.

Wasn't that question already asked, answered and codified in law?

The mechanism is a simple majority vote in favour of a united Ireland. A 'border poll'.

Professor Moriarty · 17-03-2021 3:09pm

moon2 wrote: »

Wasn't that question already asked, answered and codified in law?

The mechanism is a simple majority vote in favour of a united Ireland. A 'border poll'.

That's not my point.

Fionn1952 · 17-03-2021 3:13pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

That's not my point.

And if the answer is, 'nothing will ever persuade me', which it is for a significant number of people, what then?

The people who are willing to engage are already being engaged. The conversations you're discussing are happening with people who are willing to have them already.

Professor Moriarty · 17-03-2021 3:18pm

Fionn1952 wrote: »

And if the answer is, 'nothing will ever persuade me', which it is for a significant number of people, what then?

The people who are willing to engage are already being engaged. The conversations you're discussing are happening with people who are willing to have them already.

Then, when the time comes for a poll and if a majority vote in favour of a UI, you implement the results of that poll as best you can. I'll repeat myself. My essential point throughout this discussion is this. The more facts you have prior to any referendum regarding economic, political, social and cultural change, the more likely that a UI will pass. It will also ensure that it will pass with a bigger majority which makes its implementation easier.

Fionn1952 · 17-03-2021 3:33pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Then, when the time comes for a poll and if a majority vote in favour of a UI, you implement the results of that poll as best you can. I'll repeat myself. My essential point throughout this discussion is this. The more facts you have prior to any referendum regarding economic, political, social and cultural change, the more likely that a UI will pass. It will also ensure that it will pass with a bigger majority which makes its implementation easier.

Then you're creating a straw man argument, because no one has suggested otherwise.

Who has actually called for a border poll to be voted on tomorrow with no discussion around any of these issues?!

Most of these conversations are already happening. A proper economic discussion can't happen until certain parts of the arrangement are discussed on an Ire/UK/EU/potentially US level. Anyone with even a modicum of cop on would prefer that at the time a border poll is called, the actual vote on it is scheduled for a future date to allow these things to be reasonably assessed and communicated to the electorate. Certain parts of the picture here can't be answered until the border poll has already been called.

FrancieBrady · 17-03-2021 3:40pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Oh yes they did.

Who did?

Professor Moriarty · 17-03-2021 3:48pm

Fionn1952 wrote: »

Then you're creating a straw man argument, because no one has suggested otherwise.

Get your facts right before you accuse someone of creating straw man arguments. For example, yesterday, I was accused of being a partitionist because I quoted some uncomfortable facts.

Who has actually called for a border poll to be voted on tomorrow with no discussion around any of these issues?!

Nobody hopefully. Not sure what point you're making. Looks a bit straw mannish. I certainly didn't say or imply that anyone suggested that.

Most of these conversations are already happening. A proper economic discussion can't happen until certain parts of the arrangement are discussed on an Ire/UK/EU/potentially US level.

This is a bit weird. Reread my posts to which you are responding. You will see that I said exactly that.

Anyone with even a modicum of cop on would prefer that at the time a border poll is called, the actual vote on it is scheduled for a future date to allow these things to be reasonably assessed and communicated to the electorate. Certain parts of the picture here can't be answered until the border poll has already been called.

Anyone "with a modicum of cop on" would immediately begin comprehensive planning, across political, cultural, social and economic spectrums, for a referendum based on facts. To suggest otherwise would indicate a dearth of cop on.

FrancieBrady · 17-03-2021 3:51pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Anyone "with a modicum of cop on" would immediately begin comprehensive planning, across political, cultural, social and economic spectrums, for a referendum based on facts. To suggest otherwise would indicate a dearth of cop on.

That's the job of the government of the day. Not a single party.

Professor Moriarty · 17-03-2021 4:07pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

That's the job of the government of the day. Not a single party.

A team of qualified public servants should be set up. Leave party politics out of it as much as possible.

FrancieBrady · 17-03-2021 4:10pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

A team of qualified public servants should be set up. Leave party politics out of it as much as possible.

The government of the day will produce a proposal.

Political parties will campaign for and against it. This, we all know. I for one would not expect or have it any other way.

Professor Moriarty · 17-03-2021 4:12pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The government of the day will produce a proposal.

Political parties will campaign for and against it. This, we all know. I for one would not expect or have it any other way.

Indeed. Best to have comprehensive facts collated by independent experts to inform the debate. The Brexit referendum showed what can happen without facts.

10000maniacs · 17-03-2021 8:24pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Because if Unionism doesn't feel welcome in an Irish republic then a UI may not happen. I'll repeat myself. A UI is much more likely if all societal, cultural, economic and political realities are made clear and unambiguous and are addressed prior to any referendums. Handwaving away Unionist concerns and economic impacts on Ireland is counterproductive.

On what planet would the Unionists ever be happy with a united Ireland?
But there is going to be a point reached where any amount of their posturing and sulking will be pointless. They will just have to shut up and accept it.

yagan · 17-03-2021 8:57pm

10000maniacs wrote: »

On what planet would the Unionists ever be happy with a united Ireland?
But there is going to be a point reached where any amount of their posturing and sulking will be pointless. They will just have to shut up and accept it.

It's a point that many in government consistently fail to appreciate, that the end of partition is the end the unionist identity, unless they happy with the West brit tag. The term Jackeen was afterall coined for those happy to see the union jack flying over Trinity up until the 1950s.

No one ever asks what happened the soviets after the USSR evaporated.

Coincidently on this day exactly 30 years ago a referendum was held about the future of the USSR asking if people wanted to continue on as a bloc but with more devolved governments.

The vote passed buy about 80% but by December of the same year the USSR was no more.

Oh look, there's a Boris in charge of a straining union now!

10000maniacs · 17-03-2021 9:01pm

yagan wrote: »

It's a point that many in government consistently fail to appreciate, that the end of partition is the end the unionist identity, unless they happy with the West brit tag. The term Jackeen was afterall coined for those happy to see the union jack flying over Trinity up until the 1950s.

No one ever asks what happened the soviets after the USSR evaporated.

Coincidently on this day exactly 30 years ago a referendum was held about the future of the USSR asking if people wanted to continue on as a bloc but with more devolved governments.

The vote passed buy about 80% but by December of the same year the USSR was no more.

Oh look, there's a Boris in charge of a straining union now!

Yeah, they won't have anything to be in a union with. Their ethos and philosophy will be pointless. It's arguably pointless already.

Sam Russell · 17-03-2021 9:03pm

10000maniacs wrote: »

On what planet would the Unionists ever be happy with a united Ireland?
But there is going to be a point reached where any amount of their posturing and sulking will be pointless. They will just have to shut up and accept it.

The Unionist could quickly change their view if the Westminster Gov chose to stop the subvention, or at least cut the public paid jobs back to the level that pertains in other parts of the UK.

If they just put the NIP into place correctly and stopped this ar8ing about.

A lot of GB to NI imports could be easily routed through Dublin, and imports like cars could be routed directly from the manufacturers, rather than via the UK subsidiaries of those manufacturers. The 'British' shops in Europe are now buying produce from Ireland instead of not being able to buy it from GB.

Mr.Nice Guy · 22-03-2021 6:12pm

Claire Byrne's show is discussing reunification tonight.

https://twitter.com/ClaireByrneLive/status/1374006155220025344

Hopefully there will be some academics and economists involved. I suspect there's a good chance this will descend into parties trading insults.

Infini · 22-03-2021 11:58pm

If there is a vote for a UI in the next few years Id vote for it not out of a sense of romatacism or that but out of practical needs. If the coronavirus has taught us anything its that we have a better chance of keeping pandemics like this out if we have full terrirorial control of the island. The border is a liability and having 2 different parts of the island with 2 different approaches doesnt help. As well as that if we wish to join the schengen zone we'd only be able to do so with the border gone and with the state Britain is in I'd rather not have any part of the island under control of a hostile conservative party.

As for costs, I'm not gonna shy away from this, Northern Irelands preunification costs include payments for the Brits nukes etc and other costs would be borne by them after unification like pensions so its not like well suddenly inherit 12billion in additional costs. As well as that Germany as well would owe us a favour for the help we gave them back during their own reunification as well as likely getting some help from the EU to help with it. On top of that we'd likely have the IDA help prepare an investment program to help build up the North to bring it up closer to the rest of the island as well as deal with the chronic underinvestment over the years.

As for the people up there most I would say would get on with things and at worst deal with the remenant loyalist and republican criminal drug gangs at worst. The days of terrorist campaigns are done and those gangs can be dismantled in the same way as the kinahan gang if needs be. It would have been ideal to let this all stew away for another decade or 2 but if the time comes it would be better to just deal with this now and be done with it. As for the politics the headbangers will be about as noisy as the healy-raes and after a few years they'll likely get replaced by more level headed representatives like the alliance as people will want TDs who get things done not some blowhard like sammy who does nothing but spout bile everywhere.

Capt'n Midnight · 24-03-2021 3:12am

https://sluggerotoole.com/2018/07/22/would-a-united-ireland-be-affordable/

Just a reminder that some of the £10Bn includes stuff like Trident and HS2 that wouldn't be relevant in a UI. And the UK would be on the hook for existing pensions, just like a hundred years ago.

The difference between tax revenues in Northern Ireland and direct expenditure was £5.1bn; however when indirect expenditures allocated to Northern Ireland are taken into account, the deficit balloons to over £10bn.
...
€11.3bn if you include all of the allocated expenditures, €5.7bn if you include none of the allocated values, and €7.6bn if you include public sector debt and “other” allocations, but exclude EU expenditures, Defence & international spending, and consumption of fixed capital.

View · 25-03-2021 12:23am

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

https://sluggerotoole.com/2018/07/22/would-a-united-ireland-be-affordable/

Just a reminder that some of the £10Bn includes stuff like Trident and HS2 that wouldn't be relevant in a UI. And the UK would be on the hook for existing pensions, just like a hundred years ago.

The deficit is now up to £12billion.

“A hundred years ago” the U.K. was not “on the hook for existing pensions”. The only ones they covered were those for people who had directly worked for the government/state (eg civil servants, police etc). Funding of pensions for everyone else was left to the newly formed government in Dublin.

In addition, the cost of programmes such as Trident are small change in the context of the overall U.K. budget and hence minor additions to the NI expenditure list.

Excluding them, at best that means you are talking about savings of a couple of percent off the total bill for the deficit. That would still leave us having to come up with enough additional funding to cover the NI deficit that it would consume almost half the PAYE tax the state collects here each year (and those taxes currently pay for things like hospitals, schools etc so they aren’t sitting around in a drawer in the Dept of Finance ready to be pulled out of a hat).

Mr.Nice Guy · 25-03-2021 2:13am

View wrote: »

The deficit is now up to £12billion.

“A hundred years ago” the U.K. was not “on the hook for existing pensions”. The only ones they covered were those for people who had directly worked for the government/state (eg civil servants, police etc). Funding of pensions for everyone else was left to the newly formed government in Dublin.

In addition, the cost of programmes such as Trident are small change in the context of the overall U.K. budget and hence minor additions to the NI expenditure list.

Excluding them, at best that means you are talking about savings of a couple of percent off the total bill for the deficit. That would still leave us having to come up with enough additional funding to cover the NI deficit that it would consume almost half the PAYE tax the state collects here each year (and those taxes currently pay for things like hospitals, schools etc so they aren’t sitting around in a drawer in the Dept of Finance ready to be pulled out of a hat).

We'd be talking about more than a couple of percent. I posted a link a week ago to an article in the Irish times from Seamus McGuinness, research professor in the ESRI, and in it he touches on the factors that would need to be taken into account...

In terms of citizens in the Republic, a central concern would be the additional cost of running Northern Ireland under unification. The level of subvention, which refers to the gap between government spending and tax revenue in Northern Ireland, is often focused on as a measure of this cost. Subvention in 2014 was £9.16 billion. However, when items of expenditure not directly related to the running of Northern Ireland are subtracted, for example its contribution to UK defence spending or UK government debt, potential subvention levels could fall by about 25 per cent.

The level falls further when account is taken of UK public-sector pensions and contribution-based old-age pensions, both of which would remain a UK liability following unification. Negotiations on Northern Ireland’s share of UK assets may also impact the figure in the event of unification.

...

Any credible assessment of the cost of unification should incorporate reasonable assumptions around all of these unknown factors under various scenarios. There is little to be achieved through a static analysis of Irish unification whereby the estimated current costs of administering Northern Ireland, which are themselves highly debatable, are simply superimposed on the current tax and welfare systems of the Republic. Such a scenario would never seriously be proposed, or ratified, in any border poll.

Capt'n Midnight · 25-03-2021 2:32am

View wrote: »

The deficit is now up to £12billion.

Link please. The DUP's 30 pieces of silver was a one off and only a tenth of what NI costs in an average year. Pandemic payments are a one off.

In addition, the cost of programmes such as Trident are small change in the context of the overall U.K. budget and hence minor additions to the NI expenditure list.

UK spending on 'defence' is over 2% of GDP
NI's share is about £2Bn. We spend 0.27% on GDP , so €2Bn saved.

HS2 and decommissioning the Calder Hall AKA Sellafield,Windscale,Moorside area will each cost over £100Bn

The biggie is the share of the national debt that the Tories have run up in recent years.

Excluding them, at best that means you are talking about savings of a couple of percent off the total bill for the deficit. That would still leave us having to come up with enough additional funding to cover the NI deficit that it would consume almost half the PAYE tax the state collects here each year (and those taxes currently pay for things like hospitals, schools etc so they aren’t sitting around in a drawer in the Dept of Finance ready to be pulled out of a hat).

A lot more than a few %, and we will get EU funding, increased foreign investment

Most importantly it would be temporary until the NI economy benefits from not having Westminster make all the BIG decisions.

serfboard · 07-04-2021 6:31pm

Leroy42 wrote: »

Take the violence in NI for example.

Johnson should be, if he was even the slightest bit interested in reality, out condemning the violence and making it clear that the NIP was agreed by the HoC, voted on in the recent GE and it is not going anywhere.

The violence in NI suits Johnson very nicely.

Think of it like a military strategy - the weakest part of your enemy's (the EU's) flank is the NIP, so if you are going to break your enemy this is where the pressure needs to be applied.

The "why aren't the EU doing something about this?" argument, leading to "the only way to stop the violence in NI, is to scrap the NIP" argument.

I've heard an analysis of Johnson before which I thought was quite good - he keeps doing nothing (which also suits from a laziness perspective), until one by one, alternative options fade away and only one option remains.

As others before him, British PM's will tolerate violence in NI for decades - it doesn't affect them, after all.

There is a saying in politics that you are under no obligation to do anything for those who didn't vote for you. Since nobody in NI voted for Johnson, and his supermajority doesn't need NI votes, then he can, and he will, keep on ignoring what goes on in NI save when it's useful to him.

BlitzKrieg · 08-04-2021 12:01am

Seeing quite a few twitter heads under the Irish sea and Good Friday tags being all regretful over the failure of May's backstop being accepted.

Strange world we live in

redcup342 · 08-04-2021 8:24am

serfboard wrote: »

The violence in NI suits Johnson very nicely.

Think of it like a military strategy - the weakest part of your enemy's (the EU's) flank is the NIP, so if you are going to break your enemy this is where the pressure needs to be applied.

The "why aren't the EU doing something about this?" argument, leading to "the only way to stop the violence in NI, is to scrap the NIP" argument.

I've heard an analysis of Johnson before which I thought was quite good - he keeps doing nothing (which also suits from a laziness perspective), until one by one, alternative options fade away and only one option remains.

As others before him, British PM's will tolerate violence in NI for decades - it doesn't affect them, after all.

There is a saying in politics that you are under no obligation to do anything for those who didn't vote for you. Since nobody in NI voted for Johnson, and his supermajority doesn't need NI votes, then he can, and he will, keep on ignoring what goes on in NI save when it's useful to him.

The only time the English Government ever cared about the Troubles was when it spilled over into Londons streets.

At the moment they'll just let it rage on and escalate further, like you said, until it's at "crisis point"

And Boris will go to the EU with a "We need to do something about this"

It's all a bit sick really.

Akrasia · 08-04-2021 9:14am

redcup342 wrote: »

The only time the English Government ever cared about the Troubles was when it spilled over into Londons streets.

At the moment they'll just let it rage on and escalate further, like you said, until it's at "crisis point"

And Boris will go to the EU with a "We need to do something about this"

It's all a bit sick really.

Yeah, Johnson will stand by while the unionists regroup and reestablish violent militia, then he may then pander to them, force a hard border between EI and Ni and provoke the nationalists to react into an environment where the loyalists are already violently engaged. Or the loyalists may escalate violence south of the ‘border’

He’s setting up a tinder box that could spark aflame another generation of sectarian violence.

Historians will analyze the rise and reign of Boris Johnson and see how he made a career out of turning people against each other, poking hornets nests and starting fires while looking like an eejit with messy hair who used to present ‘Have I got news for you’ to soften people’s perception of his character

The man is almost uniquely shameless in his ability to lie to anyone and everyone to further his own ambitions while also being incredibly short sighted and reactionary. He doesn’t play chess by carefully setting up his opponent to force an error so he can implement his end game, he plays chess against himself, playing both sides of the board, thinking one move at a time but aggressively taking the low hanging fruit, not caring which king remains at the end knowing he can always claim credit for victory

It’s a ploy that only the crassest most egotistical people can pull off because it requires a supreme self confidence and self importance accompanied by a lack of foresight, hindsight and empathy for the many pawns that get destroyed along the way

CelticRambler · 08-04-2021 9:35am

redcup342 wrote: »

The only time the English Government ever cared about the Troubles was when it spilled over into Londons streets.

At the moment they'll just let it rage on and escalate further, like you said, until it's at "crisis point"

And Boris will go to the EU with a "We need to do something about this"

You might be right, and if so it's quite a gamble. Remember the date for ratification of the TCA is coming up soon, and the reason it's been postponed is because Johnson & Co. decided to renege on the promises made regarding the NIP.

If the Loyalists insist that this violence has its origins in the difficulties created by NIP, and Johnson asks for help, then the solution lies (as the EU ambassador said the other day) in the full implementation of the NIP as agreed.

It would be an easy argument to make in the European Parliament that Johnson's behaviour is - and has always been - to create division and foment unrest, then step away and watch from the sidelines. In that context, the TCA is likely to be not worth the paper he signed, and shouldn't be ratified.

Voilà : the "Troubles" come to the Streets of London, and Britain gets to live in the 1970s again.

Leroy42 · 08-04-2021 10:09am

The problem is, and always has been, that the UK has no actually alternative. They continue to complain about the NIP, but never have any possible solution, save for simply ignoring the rules.

People will blame the NIP, Johnson, SF, EU, Ireland etc etc, but at the end of it all this is all down to Brexit. None of this would be happening, not only NI but the fishermen, pensioners in Spain, lack of travel etc, except for Brexit.

ath262 · 08-04-2021 11:08am

Leroy42 wrote: »

The problem is, and always has been, that the UK has no actually alternative. They continue to complain about the NIP, but never have any possible solution, save for simply ignoring the rules.

People will blame the NIP, Johnson, SF, EU, Ireland etc etc, but at the end of it all this is all down to Brexit. None of this would be happening, not only NI but the fishermen, pensioners in Spain, lack of travel etc, except for Brexit.

and most important of all, they are complaining to the wrong people - those responsible in the UK for the NIP & WA are messrs. Johnson & Frost and co. , plus all in Westminster that voted for the deal - apparently without reading anything... and adding to that is Johnson's continual misleading statements suggesting that there would be no paperwork between Britain & NI

CelticRambler · 08-04-2021 11:48am

Hmm. Coordination or coincidence? Last night, Naomi Long of the Alliance Party made a point of saying that it's Johnson's lies that are at the root of the problems perceived by Johnson; and this morning the Shadow NI Secretary Louise Haigh is saying the same thing, and observing that Johnson is doing nothing to directly address the trouble, despite being the supposed custodian and "honest broker" of the GFA. Could it be that Labour has found a fight that it thinks it can win against the Tories?

reslfj · 08-04-2021 12:36pm

CelticRambler wrote: »

...
Could it be that Labour has found a fight that it thinks it can win against the Tories?

Being outside the UK and Ireland I am under the impression that when it comes to any question of NI, a very large number of voters in England will have all focus on their English nationalism and their own "bread and butter" and little or non on the island of Ireland.

Lars

Gael23 · 08-04-2021 1:12pm

Arlene looked a bit shook on the news. Does she have a dose of the virus!

Lemming · 08-04-2021 1:16pm

reslfj wrote: »

Being outside the UK and Ireland I am under the impression that when it comes to any question of NI, a very large number of voters in England will have all focus on their English nationalism and their own "bread and butter" and little or non on the island of Ireland.

Lars

You would be right. To a large number of English people, Northern Ireland is still Ireland; it's "over there", "not here", "not the UK" etc. The loyalists are paddies, just like the rest of us are.

Whilst the increasing volatility in NI may give the opposition parties something to light a fire under the Tories, it'd be a very small fire in of itself and just one more item to add to the litany of f*ck ups the Tories have accrued in a short space of time. Where I suspect it would enable the fight to be taken to the Tories directly is if the GFA were to collapse as a consequence, thus earning the ire of the Americans in particular and what that entails for post-Brexit Britain's global outlook from both a trade & political perspective seeing Britain isolated and ignored.

The only other situation where I could see the NI situation building up enough head of steam to act against the Tories is in relation to Scotlands relationship with the rest of the union and what damaging NI does for optics there.

serfboard · 08-04-2021 2:27pm

Gael23 wrote: »

Arlene looked a bit shook on the news.

Arlene Foster has behaved disgracefully, though unsurprisingly if you look at the history of the DUP.

Like Ian Paisley before her, she turns up the heat on the rhetoric, and then when it boils over, condemns that and simultaneously keeps the heat high.

Not, of course, that the DUP are unique in this regard - the Shinners have done the same in the past many times - but currently, it is the DUP (and the Tories thorugh Brexit) who are to blame for the NI violence.

CelticRambler · 08-04-2021 2:40pm

Lemming wrote: »

Whilst the increasing volatility in NI may give the opposition parties something to light a fire under the Tories, it'd be a very small fire in of itself and just one more item to add to the litany of f*ck ups the Tories have accrued in a short space of time.

...

The only other situation where I could see the NI situation building up enough head of steam to act against the Tories is in relation to Scotlands relationship with the rest of the union and what damaging NI does for optics there.

That's just it, though: what happens in NI is of almost no consequence for Labour they're not going to gain or lose votes there as a result of anything the say or do in Westminster. But they can use NI to symbolise all that Johnson isn't doing for the regions of Britain outside London and the Home Counties.

His hypocrisy and lies in respect of NI are crystal clear, and there are plenty of examples that can be hammered home (no border, no paperwork, no checks, etc); so it would be politically very convenient - and easy - for Labour to associate the Brexit fallout for the other regions (Scotland, Wales, Devon-&-Cornwall to start with) with his mismanagement of NI.

At a time when the pandemic looks like it might have run its course (at least from the point of view of public interest) and the image of the Brexit poster-boy AZ vaccine is being tarnished by commonwealth countries saying "no thanks, Britain" there's nothing like a blazing red bus to use as a metaphor for everything that Johnson claims as a success.

serfboard · 08-04-2021 4:03pm

CelticRambler wrote: »

Naomi Long of the Alliance Party made a point of saying that it's Johnson's lies that are at the root of the problems perceived by Johnson

As always, a straight bat played by Naomi Long. Here's her comments on the Today programme on Radio 4 yesterday, as reported by The Guardian:

The Guardian wrote:

Long attributed the violence to a combination of loyalist protests over police success in cracking down on paramilitary gangs and disquiet she says has been stoked by Westminster leaders’ false rhetoric over Brexit

Colum Eastwood put it even more bluntly:

The Guardian wrote:

[Eastwood] said that Boris Johnson silence on the violence was “galling”. “Loyalist communities, in particular, clearly feel an immense sense of betrayal. The least Johnson can do is address those concerns,” the Foyle MP said adding it was a “defining characteristic” of the prime minister to have caused “maximum chaos and then steps away from the consequences” of the hard Brexit he negotiated.

schmoo2k · 08-04-2021 5:14pm

Apparently it is now the "EU's Brexit Deal":

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Gerry T · 08-04-2021 5:20pm

schmoo2k wrote: »

Apparently it is now the "EU's Brexit Deal":

Fog in the channel, Europe cut off from the mainland (UK).

Brexit Impact on Northern Ireland

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