Greenland Express: Snow showers possible from Monday night

squarecircles · 12-01-2018 2:00pm

George Sunsnow wrote: »

The vast majority of that forecast will probably be true in Scotland

I suppose so,given that its a warning for Scotland.

Shedbebreezy · 12-01-2018 2:01pm

George Sunsnow wrote: »

The vast majority of that forecast will probably be true in Scotland

It's for Scotland and Northern Ireland so I expect it to be true for both. I'll believe the experts over the begrudges because it isn't an easterly showing:p

Gaoth Laidir · 12-01-2018 2:03pm

Shedbebreezy wrote: »

The Met Office just issued a snow warning for Northern Ireland

18:00 on Monday until 23:55 on Tuesday
Frequent and heavy hail and snow showers are likely to affect many parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland from Monday evening, continuing for much of the day on Tuesday. Travel delays on roads are possible, with a small chance of cancellations to public transport. There is a small chance that power cuts will occur and other services, such as mobile phone coverage, may be affected. In addition some roads and pavements may become icy, increasing the chance of injuries from slips and falls.

The largest accumulations of snow will be over high ground with over 10 cm building up above 200 metres. At low levels, accumulations of the order 2-5 cm will be more typical. Showers will also be accompanied by hail and lightning at times, particularly across northern and western Scotland. Here, there is potential for disruption to power supplies from frequent lightning strikes. Strong winds are also expected, with the potential for temporary blizzard conditions and drifting of lying snow, particularly over high ground.

Confidence is high to issue it 3 days in advance. Those accumulations are just from Monday to Tuesday evening, and not just a high ground event as some have stated over and over. Looks very promising, good to have the experts on board.

Note the primary reference to Scotland in that warning. Note also the lack of warning for areas further south (northern, southern England).

I acknowledged that possibly NI may get some lower-level snow, but not countrywide. The coldest uppers will remain well north, over Scotland.

Shedbebreezy · 12-01-2018 2:06pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Note the primary reference to Scotland in that warning. Note also the lack of warning for areas further south (northern, southern England).

I acknowledged that possibly NI may get some lower-level snow, but not countrywide. The coldest uppers will remain well north, over Scotland.

Well they'd have a separate warning for Northern Ireland like they have done in the past then if that were true but they have Scotland and Northern Ireland in the same warning. Anyway Scotland almost always gets more snow it's hardly news. And because England isn't involved in the warning that means they'll be no snow for northern Ireland? Even tho it is in said warning. Right

patneve2 · 12-01-2018 2:10pm

Still looks like an interesting week of weather watching imo with windows for possible accumulations to low levels from Monday onwards away from the coasts. Would classify this PM incursion as better than average/good (based on model runs). Will obviously be nowhere near as intense as January 1984 that saw repeated PM incursions which managed to even cause disruption on the E coast.

George Sunsnow · 12-01-2018 2:24pm

Shedbebreezy wrote: »

Well they'd have a separate warning for Northern Ireland like they have done in the past then if that were true but they have Scotland and Northern Ireland in the same warning. Anyway Scotland almost always gets more snow it's hardly news. And because England isn't involved in the warning that means they'll be no snow for northern Ireland? Even tho it is in said warning. Right

He didn’t say there would be no snow in Northern Ireland :rolleyes:

He’s just not expecting much
Neither am I at this juncture away from the usual spots and high ground ie not newsworthy either

pad199207 · 12-01-2018 2:26pm

Models certainly watering down potential next week. Wet slushy mush for the majority of the W and NW and perhaps some frosts for the East.

Meteorite58 · 12-01-2018 2:28pm

Mod Note: off topic posts removed.

Stay on topic

George Sunsnow · 12-01-2018 2:32pm

Shedbebreezy wrote: »

Alright fair enough, I'll trust the experts ie Met office with this one. And yeah not Newsworthy, we already had 1 week of snow in December so its nothing out of the ordinary up here compared to the East/SE.

2cm’s enough for you then?

Note the western Scotland centric basis for the warning

As for nothing out of the ordinary,I’ll point out that vast parts of Donegal wouldn’t see snow anymore often than roundwood even Letterkenny,a town I know well

Anyway here’s the assessment note
Again with an emphasis on Scotland

Shedbebreezy · 12-01-2018 2:36pm

George Sunsnow wrote: »

2cm’s enough for you then?

Note the western Scotland centric basis for the warning

As for nothing out of the ordinary,I’ll point out that vast parts of Donegal wouldn’t see snow anymore often than roundwood even Letterkenny,a town I know well

Anyway here’s the assessment note
Again with an emphasis on Scotland

It says 2-5cm over a 24 hour period, the whole week looks good. Roundwood at 238m lol will see more snow than coastal Donegal alright but Donegal sees much more snow than you, a town here at 238 would dwarf Roundwoods totals. People in the East and South East haven't had snow cover since 2010. I'm at 35m asl and have had a week of snow this Winter, how much have you had?

It really seems to bug you, that experts have a snow warning for here and if it is 2cm, its 2cm more than you'll see this week.

hawkwing · 12-01-2018 2:44pm

Met.ie :

EARLY NEXT WEEK: Becoming increasingly blustery and showery; showers turning wintry later Monday into Tuesday with falls of sleet and snow increasingly more likely. The focus of the wintry showers will be across the north and west with some accumulations likely - but all areas will be at risk with some thunder occurring locally too. Much colder, with maxima of only 3 to 6 degrees Celsius (north to south). Feeling even colder with an added wind chill effect. Frost and ice also, mainly for sheltered areas owing to sustained brisk winds.

Meteorite58 · 12-01-2018 2:45pm

Mod Note: Please keep the posts civil and refrain from attacking the poster.

squarecircles · 12-01-2018 2:56pm

Life is short ,enjoy next week.

Unless you're in the east,hehe,just kidding.
I hope everyone sees some snow,even if its just to see some falling,which is cool.

George Sunsnow · 12-01-2018 3:29pm

Shedbebreezy wrote: »

So Carlow had continuous lying snow from Thursday the 7th of December for one week? Or your pics start from that Sunday with the waist deep drifts? I'd love to see a pic of that.

https://touch.boards.ie/thread/2057817783/136

Plenty in that thread.

Gaoth Laidir · 12-01-2018 3:29pm

Shedbebreezy wrote: »

Well they'd have a separate warning for Northern Ireland like they have done in the past then if that were true but they have Scotland and Northern Ireland in the same warning. Anyway Scotland almost always gets more snow it's hardly news. And because England isn't involved in the warning that means they'll be no snow for northern Ireland? Even tho it is in said warning. Right

Don't know what you mean here. Who said no snow in Northern Ireland?

Gonzo · 12-01-2018 3:31pm

Mod Note:
No More unfriendly or personal attacks towards other posters. This Thread is about an upcoming cold spell and not a reflection on who or where saw the most snow in 2017. Any more off topic posts will be deleted. Now back on topic and keep it friendly.

Kermit.de.frog · 12-01-2018 3:36pm

We'll have updates after the 12 pm model output is available.

I disagree with the negativity on this. I think some are in for a pleasant surprise!

pauldry · 12-01-2018 3:50pm

I love the way your always so positive Kermit the frog..

Anyways I think you are right

We are in for a prolonged cold spell with temperatures not going above 10c much at all over the coming weeks

Youd need to be very unlucky to not get snow from this,.

also as many have pointed out the Greenland source is good as is the time of year when the sea is near its coldest

chins up everyone

It may not snow continuous next week but we are bound to see some whiteness (even hail.......)

average_runner · 12-01-2018 3:54pm

pauldry wrote: »

I love the way your always so positive Kermit the frog..

Anyways I think you are right

We are in for a prolonged cold spell with temperatures not going above 10c much at all over the coming weeks

Youd need to be very unlucky to not get snow from this,.

also as many have pointed out the Greenland source is good as is the time of year when the sea is near its coldest

chins up everyone

It may not snow continuous next week but we are bound to see some whiteness (even hail.......)

Don't think it has gone above 10C in dublin all week!!

patneve2 · 12-01-2018 4:40pm

Agree with the more optimistic posters. Would also keep an eye out for low pressure systems and other features spawning in that frigid flow.

squarecircles · 12-01-2018 5:38pm

12z maintains the cold into next weekend,severe frosts, with a slider low??? pushing into very cold air,creating snowfall.

Before that another low pushing through into the cold air on Wednesday...

While Tuesday looks very snowy for some parts of the north and west.

Kermit.de.frog · 12-01-2018 5:48pm

Gonna wait for ECM but good UKMO/GFS so far. Inconsistency in timing of that shortwave around midweek.

Potential for snow with that but need to firm up on track and timing.

PukkaStukka · 12-01-2018 5:48pm

average_runner wrote: »

Don't think it has gone above 10C in dublin all week month!!

There, corrected that for you..!!

Shedbebreezy · 12-01-2018 5:51pm

Just for fun. Northern third stays cold throughout, some hefty totals, Donegal the most with 25cm. As I said all for fun.

120-780UK.GIF?12-12

kod87 · 12-01-2018 6:01pm

The higher ground in the north certainly looks good on those charts, especially higher parts of donegal.

pad199207 · 12-01-2018 6:04pm

kod87 wrote: »

The higher ground in the north certainly looks good on those charts, especially higher parts of donegal.

Yeah looks increasingly likely that higher elevations will do very well out of this, not just in the north but also for the majority of the country.

I’d say a lot of trips up mountains will be had come next Friday and next weekend!

Oneiric 3 · 12-01-2018 6:15pm

Current SST anomalies between here and Greenland, roughly around average:

Would reckon that these will go into negative values over the next couple of weeks in this general line as cold, stormy air whips up the waves and cools them down.

Map sourced from the UK Met Office.

nacho libre · 12-01-2018 7:51pm

fraxinus1 wrote: »

Very disappointed after reading MT’s forecast. This is basically a high ground event. Another blow for us snow lovers.spring Is rapidly approaching and there’s only realistically a 6 week snow window left. If this Greenland express doesn’t deliver then it’s game over.

M.T. Cranium is more conservative these days because in the early days, he would talk up snow chances and often times we would just get cold rain or sleet. He tended to be influenced by the prevailing mood on here too.

I can't fathom how someone can say winter is over already- unless you are engaging in reverse psychology?? You, as you have mentioned are longer in the tooth than i am, so you should know well that January and February is our optimum time for snow- just ask any farmer, if you don't believe me. So taking all this into consideration, i believe you are secretly doing a snow dance to the weather gods that we get snow next week.

nacho libre · 12-01-2018 8:10pm

Shedbebreezy wrote: »

Just for fun. Northern third stays cold throughout, some hefty totals, Donegal the most with 25cm. As I said all for fun.

It won't be a 1984 type event, but if you enjoy just seeing snow fall and are happy with modest accumulations to lower levels, then next week will be good. However If you desire ice days with a foot of snow in places like Wicklow, Meath and Kildare then you will likely dismiss next week as much ado about nothing.

Gaoth Laidir · 12-01-2018 8:24pm

nacho libre wrote: »

M.T. Cranium is more conservative these days because in the early days, he would talk up snow chances and often times we would just get cold rain or sleet. He tended to be influenced by the prevailing mood on here too.

"just get cold rain and sleet"...

Now that seems familiar.

Greenland Express: Snow showers possible from Monday night

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