Greenland Express: Snow showers possible from Monday night

MJohnston · 12-01-2018 10:09am

This is a very accumulations-oriented forum, I've noticed! Nobody else like me just love the actual snowfall, and don't really care about whether it sticks around for too long?

booferking · 12-01-2018 10:10am

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Greenland all stops more like it perhaps?

Still it is coming from Greenland, this part is true.

Is this still your forecast for next week below i think the will be widespread snow falls inland to low areas also not just high ground.

Falls of snow are quite likely by mid-week in higher parts of Connacht, west Ulster and west Munster

Elmer Blooker · 12-01-2018 10:35am

Donegal Storm wrote: »

2010 was the real deal if we're talking about a Greenland Express, the airmass dropped from the deep Arctic in Northern Greenland to the north of Ireland in little more than 24 hours. The coming week could be interesting in the north and west but won't be remotely close to that event

Lovely charts. The real deal as you say with northern blocking.
I know I might be labelled an east coast ... "if there aren't east coast streamers then its not a real winter" nimby but any chart in winter with a big Azores does nothing for me. I've seen so many winters ruined by a big Azores my chronic Azoresophobia is now incurable.

ECM1-120.GIF?12-12

Rebelbrowser · 12-01-2018 11:20am

The GFS 6z is showing a lp forming on Wednesday which I suspect complicates further our snow chances.....:mad:

Kermit.de.frog · 12-01-2018 11:25am

GFS throws up an interesting feature on Wednesday.

Could be some snow associated with that on it's northern flank but the model is on it's own with that for now.

Something to watch though.

Peatys · 12-01-2018 11:30am

MJohnston wrote: »

Nobody else like me just love the actual snowfall, and don't really care about whether it sticks around for too long?

The the initial shock of snowfall instantly pulls me back to the magic of being 5.
Then after two minutes, start hoping it doesn't stick so my wife's rwd car can get out of the estate!

Kermit.de.frog · 12-01-2018 11:31am

Let's all try to remain calm

All we need is to lose that shortwave in the GIN corridor.

Anyhow for the cold snap another solid run, bags of potential.

Shedbebreezy · 12-01-2018 11:38am

The Met Office just issued a snow warning for Northern Ireland.

18:00 on Monday until 23:55 on Tuesday
Frequent and heavy hail and snow showers are likely to affect many parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland from Monday evening, continuing for much of the day on Tuesday. Travel delays on roads are possible, with a small chance of cancellations to public transport. There is a small chance that power cuts will occur and other services, such as mobile phone coverage, may be affected. In addition some roads and pavements may become icy, increasing the chance of injuries from slips and falls.

The largest accumulations of snow will be over high ground with over 10 cm building up above 200 metres. At low levels, accumulations of the order 2-5 cm will be more typical. Showers will also be accompanied by hail and lightning at times, particularly across northern and western Scotland. Here, there is potential for disruption to power supplies from frequent lightning strikes. Strong winds are also expected, with the potential for temporary blizzard conditions and drifting of lying snow, particularly over high ground.

Confidence is high to issue it 3 days in advance. Those accumulations are just from Monday to Tuesday evening, and not just a high ground event as some have stated over and over. Looks very promising, good to have the experts on board.

pauldry · 12-01-2018 11:44am

Monday night will definitely snow so at least Tuesday will be a white out in NW

fraxinus1 · 12-01-2018 12:07pm

Very disappointed after reading MT’s forecast. This is basically a high ground event. Another blow for us snow lovers.spring Is rapidly approaching and there’s only realistically a 6 week snow window left. If this Greenland express doesn’t deliver then it’s game over.

MJohnston · 12-01-2018 12:26pm

fraxinus1 wrote: »

Very disappointed after reading MT’s forecast. This is basically a high ground event. Another blow for us snow lovers.spring Is rapidly approaching and there’s only realistically a 6 week snow window left. If this Greenland express doesn’t deliver then it’s game over.

Oh don't be talking silly - you're the same one who was saying it was game over in early December and then again approaching new years when you said we'd be getting loads of Atlantic muck and nothing else in January.

Kermit.de.frog · 12-01-2018 12:28pm

fraxinus1 wrote: »

Very disappointed after reading MT’s forecast. This is basically a high ground event. Another blow for us snow lovers.spring Is rapidly approaching and there’s only realistically a 6 week snow window left. If this Greenland express doesn’t deliver then it’s game over.

Variety of opinion is the spice of life.

Stick around here, you'll be grand!:cool:

pauldry · 12-01-2018 12:35pm

haha knew id jinx it .... should have kept stum:rolleyes:

pauldry · 12-01-2018 12:52pm

yes bloomin jet stream seems to have taken a punt further North leaving us in "slushmans" land

Just looked at the models (weather ones)

highdef · 12-01-2018 12:56pm

fraxinus1 wrote: »

there's only realistically a 6 week snow window left. If this Greenland express doesn’t deliver then it’s game over.

Ok, you first say that there are 6 weeks left of opportunities for snow and then immediately say that if we don't get the snow next week, there is no chance of snow for the rest of the winter.

Can you explain your statement in further detail as it has me seriously confused.

Gonzo · 12-01-2018 1:00pm

yesterday I said alot can change and already this doesn't look quite as good as it did yesterday. The cold now arrives slightly later, will be Tuesday before the cold air digs in. Then back to slightly milder on Wednesday with a wet day for most of us, then colder again on Thursday and a slow return to mild over the weekend. This will all change again between now and Tuesday for better or for worse, this is still really 4 days away.

Shedbebreezy · 12-01-2018 1:20pm

I disagree Gonzo. Wednesday the northern edge will see snow. Doesn't look great elsewhere on Wednesday but it never did away from the North/North West. And I see no warm up for next weekend as you state. Blog below backs up claim.

John Hammond BBC weather man blog today. Sounds promising.

It’s the high ground of northwest Britain – where the wintry squalls will be quite incessant – that I am most concerned about. Feet of snow could fall on the mountains, with much larger drifts, thanks to the strong winds. However I also expect some large conurbations of Scotland, Northern Ireland and northwestern parts of England and Wales to be affected by some disruptive snow showers at times.

Further south and east, there will actually be plenty of sunshine, but even here some wintry showers are expected. Nobody is immune from a dusting of snow and overnight frost will be widespread.

For those hoping for just a brief cold snap, there’s not particularly good news on the horizon for the end of the week. There are the first signs of the jet stream developing a large and important kink in mid-Atlantic. In the process, those westerly winds will begin turn into northerlies.

So by the weekend I expect frosts to be quite hard, especially over snow cover. But although there will still be some wintry showers, plenty of fine and crisp weather is expected.

MONDAY 22ND JANUARY – SUNDAY 28TH JANUARY

Cold start – Milder later?

Not for the first time, the atmosphere looks to be edging into a ‘blocked’ pattern that the computer forecast models really hadn’t envisaged a few days earlier. Cold air will be established across the UK, with a contorted jet stream struggling to remove it.

The majority of model output suggests that the jet stream will reinvigorate, sweeping the block away, and introducing milder westerly winds as the week progresses. However, given the evidence of the last few weeks, I am not at all surprised to see from the latest output that this outcome is now far from unanimous.

My hunch is for another ‘battleground’ setting up in the vicinity of the UK. Fronts from the west will slowly and erratically try to dislodge the cold block to the east. In the process, we can expect a messy mix of rain and some snow, with temperatures slow to recover.

Oneiric 3 · 12-01-2018 1:25pm

ECM showing potential for hurricane force winds to develop off the southern tip of Greenland by early next week:

This air flow looks increasingly nasty to me. Regardless of temp or snow potential, it is going to feel bitter in those potentially very gusty westerlies next week.

Oneiric 3 · 12-01-2018 1:30pm

highdef wrote: »

Ok, you first say that there are 6 weeks left of opportunities for snow and then immediately say that if we don't get the snow next week, there is no chance of snow for the rest of the winter.

Can you explain your statement in further detail as it has me seriously confused.

He's probably learned from bitter experience.

Almost 6 weeks of winter has passed now and feck all has happened weather wise really; why should any one reasonably expect that the remaining 6 weeks should be any different?

George Sunsnow · 12-01-2018 1:58pm

Shedbebreezy wrote: »

The Met Office just issued a snow warning for Northern Ireland.

18:00 on Monday until 23:55 on Tuesday
Frequent and heavy hail and snow showers are likely to affect many parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland from Monday evening, continuing for much of the day on Tuesday. Travel delays on roads are possible, with a small chance of cancellations to public transport. There is a small chance that power cuts will occur and other services, such as mobile phone coverage, may be affected. In addition some roads and pavements may become icy, increasing the chance of injuries from slips and falls.

The largest accumulations of snow will be over high ground with over 10 cm building up above 200 metres. At low levels, accumulations of the order 2-5 cm will be more typical. Showers will also be accompanied by hail and lightning at times, particularly across northern and western Scotland. Here, there is potential for disruption to power supplies from frequent lightning strikes. Strong winds are also expected, with the potential for temporary blizzard conditions and drifting of lying snow, particularly over high ground.

Confidence is high to issue it 3 days in advance. Those accumulations are just from Monday to Tuesday evening, and not just a high ground event as some have stated over and over. Looks very promising, good to have the experts on board.

The vast majority of that forecast will probably be true in Scotland

squarecircles · 12-01-2018 2:00pm

George Sunsnow wrote: »

The vast majority of that forecast will probably be true in Scotland

I suppose so,given that its a warning for Scotland.

Shedbebreezy · 12-01-2018 2:01pm

George Sunsnow wrote: »

The vast majority of that forecast will probably be true in Scotland

It's for Scotland and Northern Ireland so I expect it to be true for both. I'll believe the experts over the begrudges because it isn't an easterly showing:p

Gaoth Laidir · 12-01-2018 2:03pm

Shedbebreezy wrote: »

The Met Office just issued a snow warning for Northern Ireland

18:00 on Monday until 23:55 on Tuesday
Frequent and heavy hail and snow showers are likely to affect many parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland from Monday evening, continuing for much of the day on Tuesday. Travel delays on roads are possible, with a small chance of cancellations to public transport. There is a small chance that power cuts will occur and other services, such as mobile phone coverage, may be affected. In addition some roads and pavements may become icy, increasing the chance of injuries from slips and falls.

The largest accumulations of snow will be over high ground with over 10 cm building up above 200 metres. At low levels, accumulations of the order 2-5 cm will be more typical. Showers will also be accompanied by hail and lightning at times, particularly across northern and western Scotland. Here, there is potential for disruption to power supplies from frequent lightning strikes. Strong winds are also expected, with the potential for temporary blizzard conditions and drifting of lying snow, particularly over high ground.

Confidence is high to issue it 3 days in advance. Those accumulations are just from Monday to Tuesday evening, and not just a high ground event as some have stated over and over. Looks very promising, good to have the experts on board.

Note the primary reference to Scotland in that warning. Note also the lack of warning for areas further south (northern, southern England).

I acknowledged that possibly NI may get some lower-level snow, but not countrywide. The coldest uppers will remain well north, over Scotland.

Shedbebreezy · 12-01-2018 2:06pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Note the primary reference to Scotland in that warning. Note also the lack of warning for areas further south (northern, southern England).

I acknowledged that possibly NI may get some lower-level snow, but not countrywide. The coldest uppers will remain well north, over Scotland.

Well they'd have a separate warning for Northern Ireland like they have done in the past then if that were true but they have Scotland and Northern Ireland in the same warning. Anyway Scotland almost always gets more snow it's hardly news. And because England isn't involved in the warning that means they'll be no snow for northern Ireland? Even tho it is in said warning. Right

patneve2 · 12-01-2018 2:10pm

Still looks like an interesting week of weather watching imo with windows for possible accumulations to low levels from Monday onwards away from the coasts. Would classify this PM incursion as better than average/good (based on model runs). Will obviously be nowhere near as intense as January 1984 that saw repeated PM incursions which managed to even cause disruption on the E coast.

George Sunsnow · 12-01-2018 2:24pm

Shedbebreezy wrote: »

Well they'd have a separate warning for Northern Ireland like they have done in the past then if that were true but they have Scotland and Northern Ireland in the same warning. Anyway Scotland almost always gets more snow it's hardly news. And because England isn't involved in the warning that means they'll be no snow for northern Ireland? Even tho it is in said warning. Right

He didn’t say there would be no snow in Northern Ireland :rolleyes:

He’s just not expecting much
Neither am I at this juncture away from the usual spots and high ground ie not newsworthy either

pad199207 · 12-01-2018 2:26pm

Models certainly watering down potential next week. Wet slushy mush for the majority of the W and NW and perhaps some frosts for the East.

Meteorite58 · 12-01-2018 2:28pm

Mod Note: off topic posts removed.

Stay on topic

George Sunsnow · 12-01-2018 2:32pm

Shedbebreezy wrote: »

Alright fair enough, I'll trust the experts ie Met office with this one. And yeah not Newsworthy, we already had 1 week of snow in December so its nothing out of the ordinary up here compared to the East/SE.

2cm’s enough for you then?

Note the western Scotland centric basis for the warning

As for nothing out of the ordinary,I’ll point out that vast parts of Donegal wouldn’t see snow anymore often than roundwood even Letterkenny,a town I know well

Anyway here’s the assessment note
Again with an emphasis on Scotland

Shedbebreezy · 12-01-2018 2:36pm

George Sunsnow wrote: »

2cm’s enough for you then?

Note the western Scotland centric basis for the warning

As for nothing out of the ordinary,I’ll point out that vast parts of Donegal wouldn’t see snow anymore often than roundwood even Letterkenny,a town I know well

Anyway here’s the assessment note
Again with an emphasis on Scotland

It says 2-5cm over a 24 hour period, the whole week looks good. Roundwood at 238m lol will see more snow than coastal Donegal alright but Donegal sees much more snow than you, a town here at 238 would dwarf Roundwoods totals. People in the East and South East haven't had snow cover since 2010. I'm at 35m asl and have had a week of snow this Winter, how much have you had?

It really seems to bug you, that experts have a snow warning for here and if it is 2cm, its 2cm more than you'll see this week.

hawkwing · 12-01-2018 2:44pm

Met.ie :

EARLY NEXT WEEK: Becoming increasingly blustery and showery; showers turning wintry later Monday into Tuesday with falls of sleet and snow increasingly more likely. The focus of the wintry showers will be across the north and west with some accumulations likely - but all areas will be at risk with some thunder occurring locally too. Much colder, with maxima of only 3 to 6 degrees Celsius (north to south). Feeling even colder with an added wind chill effect. Frost and ice also, mainly for sheltered areas owing to sustained brisk winds.

Meteorite58 · 12-01-2018 2:45pm

Mod Note: Please keep the posts civil and refrain from attacking the poster.

squarecircles · 12-01-2018 2:56pm

Life is short ,enjoy next week.

Unless you're in the east,hehe,just kidding.
I hope everyone sees some snow,even if its just to see some falling,which is cool.

George Sunsnow · 12-01-2018 3:29pm

Shedbebreezy wrote: »

So Carlow had continuous lying snow from Thursday the 7th of December for one week? Or your pics start from that Sunday with the waist deep drifts? I'd love to see a pic of that.

https://touch.boards.ie/thread/2057817783/136

Plenty in that thread.

Gaoth Laidir · 12-01-2018 3:29pm

Shedbebreezy wrote: »

Well they'd have a separate warning for Northern Ireland like they have done in the past then if that were true but they have Scotland and Northern Ireland in the same warning. Anyway Scotland almost always gets more snow it's hardly news. And because England isn't involved in the warning that means they'll be no snow for northern Ireland? Even tho it is in said warning. Right

Don't know what you mean here. Who said no snow in Northern Ireland?

Gonzo · 12-01-2018 3:31pm

Mod Note:
No More unfriendly or personal attacks towards other posters. This Thread is about an upcoming cold spell and not a reflection on who or where saw the most snow in 2017. Any more off topic posts will be deleted. Now back on topic and keep it friendly.

Kermit.de.frog · 12-01-2018 3:36pm

We'll have updates after the 12 pm model output is available.

I disagree with the negativity on this. I think some are in for a pleasant surprise!

pauldry · 12-01-2018 3:50pm

I love the way your always so positive Kermit the frog..

Anyways I think you are right

We are in for a prolonged cold spell with temperatures not going above 10c much at all over the coming weeks

Youd need to be very unlucky to not get snow from this,.

also as many have pointed out the Greenland source is good as is the time of year when the sea is near its coldest

chins up everyone

It may not snow continuous next week but we are bound to see some whiteness (even hail.......)

average_runner · 12-01-2018 3:54pm

pauldry wrote: »

I love the way your always so positive Kermit the frog..

Anyways I think you are right

We are in for a prolonged cold spell with temperatures not going above 10c much at all over the coming weeks

Youd need to be very unlucky to not get snow from this,.

also as many have pointed out the Greenland source is good as is the time of year when the sea is near its coldest

chins up everyone

It may not snow continuous next week but we are bound to see some whiteness (even hail.......)

Don't think it has gone above 10C in dublin all week!!

patneve2 · 12-01-2018 4:40pm

Agree with the more optimistic posters. Would also keep an eye out for low pressure systems and other features spawning in that frigid flow.

squarecircles · 12-01-2018 5:38pm

12z maintains the cold into next weekend,severe frosts, with a slider low??? pushing into very cold air,creating snowfall.

Before that another low pushing through into the cold air on Wednesday...

While Tuesday looks very snowy for some parts of the north and west.

Kermit.de.frog · 12-01-2018 5:48pm

Gonna wait for ECM but good UKMO/GFS so far. Inconsistency in timing of that shortwave around midweek.

Potential for snow with that but need to firm up on track and timing.

PukkaStukka · 12-01-2018 5:48pm

average_runner wrote: »

Don't think it has gone above 10C in dublin all week month!!

There, corrected that for you..!!

Shedbebreezy · 12-01-2018 5:51pm

Just for fun. Northern third stays cold throughout, some hefty totals, Donegal the most with 25cm. As I said all for fun.

120-780UK.GIF?12-12

kod87 · 12-01-2018 6:01pm

The higher ground in the north certainly looks good on those charts, especially higher parts of donegal.

pad199207 · 12-01-2018 6:04pm

kod87 wrote: »

The higher ground in the north certainly looks good on those charts, especially higher parts of donegal.

Yeah looks increasingly likely that higher elevations will do very well out of this, not just in the north but also for the majority of the country.

I’d say a lot of trips up mountains will be had come next Friday and next weekend!

Oneiric 3 · 12-01-2018 6:15pm

Current SST anomalies between here and Greenland, roughly around average:

Would reckon that these will go into negative values over the next couple of weeks in this general line as cold, stormy air whips up the waves and cools them down.

Map sourced from the UK Met Office.

nacho libre · 12-01-2018 7:51pm

fraxinus1 wrote: »

Very disappointed after reading MT’s forecast. This is basically a high ground event. Another blow for us snow lovers.spring Is rapidly approaching and there’s only realistically a 6 week snow window left. If this Greenland express doesn’t deliver then it’s game over.

M.T. Cranium is more conservative these days because in the early days, he would talk up snow chances and often times we would just get cold rain or sleet. He tended to be influenced by the prevailing mood on here too.

I can't fathom how someone can say winter is over already- unless you are engaging in reverse psychology?? You, as you have mentioned are longer in the tooth than i am, so you should know well that January and February is our optimum time for snow- just ask any farmer, if you don't believe me. So taking all this into consideration, i believe you are secretly doing a snow dance to the weather gods that we get snow next week.

nacho libre · 12-01-2018 8:10pm

Shedbebreezy wrote: »

Just for fun. Northern third stays cold throughout, some hefty totals, Donegal the most with 25cm. As I said all for fun.

It won't be a 1984 type event, but if you enjoy just seeing snow fall and are happy with modest accumulations to lower levels, then next week will be good. However If you desire ice days with a foot of snow in places like Wicklow, Meath and Kildare then you will likely dismiss next week as much ado about nothing.

Gaoth Laidir · 12-01-2018 8:24pm

nacho libre wrote: »

M.T. Cranium is more conservative these days because in the early days, he would talk up snow chances and often times we would just get cold rain or sleet. He tended to be influenced by the prevailing mood on here too.

"just get cold rain and sleet"...

Now that seems familiar.

Greenland Express: Snow showers possible from Monday night

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