Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Cyrus · 23-07-2020 4:11pm

schmittel wrote: »

Many people, not least the government, think that is a good thing.

so there is an increased FTB grant and the decrease in vat will bring prices down

yet you arent happy?

Rossvet · 23-07-2020 4:16pm

Cyrus wrote: »

so there is an increased FTB grant and the decrease in vat will bring prices down

yet you arent happy?

Nothing on affordable or social housing but we can give a subsidy to people buying €600k houses.
Right wing rules again.

brisan · 23-07-2020 4:16pm

Cyrus wrote: »

so there is an increased FTB grant and the decrease in vat will bring prices down

yet you arent happy?

Builders will not drop prices
They will charge what the market will bear and pocket the difference

SozBbz · 23-07-2020 4:17pm

Cyrus wrote: »

so there is an increased FTB grant and the decrease in vat will bring prices down

yet you arent happy?

Will it bring prices down though?

Or will it keep builders margins up?

hometruths · 23-07-2020 4:18pm

Cyrus wrote: »

so there is an increased FTB grant and the decrease in vat will bring prices down

yet you arent happy?

Of course I am thrilled, I was just responding to CorkRed's point about FTB's having to pay higher prices.

I think it is fantastic that FTB's have an increased grant, I'm sure it will make their day. I am not convinced the decrease will bring down prices though. Nor do I think it will do anything to address the homeless problem.

I think it is poor policy, but ultimately it suits me down to the ground, as I plan to sell my house within the next year. And in order to get top dollar I need plenty of FTBs armed to the teeth bidding madly at the bottom of the chain.

Happy as a pig in sh*t.

But I'm not the one that needs help.

Cyrus · 23-07-2020 4:19pm

Rossvet wrote: »

Nothing on affordable or social housing but we can give a subsidy to people buying €600k houses.
Right wing rules again.

this is for all new builds is it not? and if its a 600k house you are capped at a max of 30k or 5%. and you understand this is an economic stimulus plan, pumping money into free houses for people who dont contribute to the tax take isnt the agenda here.

Cyrus · 23-07-2020 4:20pm

brisan wrote: »

Builders will not drop prices
They will charge what the market will bear and pocket the difference

according to everyone what the market will bear is decreasing at an alarming rate so this must be good news for FTBers?

Cyrus · 23-07-2020 4:20pm

schmittel wrote: »

Of course I am thrilled, I was just responding to CorkRed's point about FTB's having to pay higher prices.

I think it is fantastic that FTB's have an increased grant, I'm sure it will make their day. I am not convinced the decrease will bring down prices though. Nor do I think it will do anything to address the homeless problem.

I think it is poor policy, but ultimately it suits me down to the ground, as I plan to sell my house within the next year. And in order to get top dollar I need plenty of FTBs armed to the teeth bidding madly at the bottom of the chain.

Happy as a pig in sh*t.

But I'm not the one that needs help.

wont help you i wouldnt have thought its for new builds.

brisan · 23-07-2020 4:22pm

fliball123 wrote: »

Its all location people that why somes areas are higher. I have seen 2 houses in the same estate one had nothing done to it, the other had an attic extension, a kitchen extension, underfloor heating, bathrooms done up to the nines, a side extension, porch extension and a shomra room out the back. The back was all decked out in expensive granite stone and both were up for sale at the same time and the difference in price was 15k even with all of the work above done. Someone had pumped easily 150k in and they only got 1/10th back. So location is probably the biggest driver of price after demand

I have said this numerous times
Myself and my brothers have flipped numerous houses
We do a lot of the work ourselves
There are certain things you will never get your money back on and every area has a ceiling price for every type of house.
Put that Abington houses 3 or 4 miles down the road in Darndale and see what you get for it
Location ,location ,location.
Buy the worst house in the best area you can afford

SozBbz · 23-07-2020 4:23pm

Cyrus wrote: »

according to everyone what the market will bear is decreasing at an alarming rate so this must be good news for FTBers?

Not everyone - theres a cohort here who don't think prices will fall significantly (not the same as saying that prices won't fall at all).

I think builders are well able to release units to the market in such a way as to maximise demand and in turn their profits.

FTBs may get some benefit from this in the short term but history shows the the market will level off to account for the scheme.

brisan · 23-07-2020 4:23pm

Cyrus wrote: »

according to everyone what the market will bear is decreasing at an alarming rate so this must be good news for FTBers?

Assuming they can get a mortgage it is

hometruths · 23-07-2020 4:24pm

Cyrus wrote: »

wont help you i wouldnt have thought its for new builds.

Indeed, but higher price for new builds feeds into the higher prices across the entire market.

SozBbz · 23-07-2020 4:25pm

schmittel wrote: »

Of course I am thrilled, I was just responding to CorkRed's point about FTB's having to pay higher prices.

I think it is fantastic that FTB's have an increased grant, I'm sure it will make their day. I am not convinced the decrease will bring down prices though. Nor do I think it will do anything to address the homeless problem.

I think it is poor policy, but ultimately it suits me down to the ground, as I plan to sell my house within the next year. And in order to get top dollar I need plenty of FTBs armed to the teeth bidding madly at the bottom of the chain.

Happy as a pig in sh*t.

But I'm not the one that needs help.

Not to rain on your parade, but this might actually hurt you. The HTB scheme has always been for new builds, and this is just making new builds more attractive to FTBs than 2nd hand properties.

Hulk Hands · 23-07-2020 4:25pm

Cyrus wrote: »

this is for all new builds is it not? and if its a 600k house you are capped at a max of 30k or 5%. and you understand this is an economic stimulus plan, pumping money into free houses for people who dont contribute to the tax take isnt the agenda here.

And it's still capped at 500k is it not?

hometruths · 23-07-2020 4:31pm

SozBbz wrote: »

Not to rain on your parade, but this might actually hurt you. The HTB scheme has always been for new builds, and this is just making new builds more attractive to FTBs than 2nd hand properties.

I get that but there is no way an FTB is buying my property anyway, or if they are they are not worried about the government HTB scheme.

But, as above, helping FTBs paying increased prices for new builds feeds into prices across the entire market.

BEdS_83 · 23-07-2020 4:32pm

Hulk Hands wrote: »

And it's still capped at 500k is it not?

great question

was wondering that too.

Smouse156 · 23-07-2020 5:11pm

schmittel wrote: »

Of course I am thrilled, I was just responding to CorkRed's point about FTB's having to pay higher prices.

I think it is fantastic that FTB's have an increased grant, I'm sure it will make their day. I am not convinced the decrease will bring down prices though. Nor do I think it will do anything to address the homeless problem.

I think it is poor policy, but ultimately it suits me down to the ground, as I plan to sell my house within the next year. And in order to get top dollar I need plenty of FTBs armed to the teeth bidding madly at the bottom of the chain.

Happy as a pig in sh*t.

But I'm not the one that needs help.

I think your a little confused! The FTB grant is only for new builds, therefore your second hand house isn’t eligible. It’s is highly likely this will depress second hand homes as everyone will go towards the zero deposit new builds.

Think about it logically, a 300k new build where the buyer needs zero down vs a second hand one where the buyer needs 30k saved on Irish wages.

Outcome, the new build flies off the shelf and the second hand house drops it’s asking to 275k

hometruths · 23-07-2020 5:15pm

Smouse156 wrote: »

I think your a little confused! The FTB grant is only for new builds, therefore your second hand house isn’t eligible. It’s is highly likely this will depress second hand homes as everyone will go towards the zero deposit new builds.

Think about it logically, a 300k new build where the buyer needs zero down vs a second hand one where the buyer needs 30k saved on Irish wages.

Outcome, the new build flies off the shelf and the second hand house drops it’s asking to 275k

Asked and answered a couple of times.

Unless FTBers buying new builds operate in a vacuum, I am not the one that is confused.

Smouse156 · 23-07-2020 5:19pm

schmittel wrote: »

I get that but there is no way an FTB is buying my property anyway, or if they are they are not worried about the government HTB scheme.

But, as above, helping FTBs paying increased prices for new builds feeds into prices across the entire market.

Actually all it does is help demand in one particular segment of the market! Builders and FTBs. It helps the rent slaves break their chains and become home owners so bad for landlords as well. Builders making more cash will help them increase output further increasing supply which depresses prices.

This is the thinking of the Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown second house sellers. They wondered why the prices dropped 7% in 2019 when the whole market only fell 1%. The average price was held up by the new builds coming on stream but it hurt second hand expensive houses

Smouse156 · 23-07-2020 5:23pm

schmittel wrote: »

Asked and answered a couple of times.

Unless FTBers buying new builds operate in a vacuum, I am not the one that is confused.

You don’t understand! It won’t help your second hand house, when it depreciates due to buyers flocking to all the new builds and ignoring your place. Then you’ll get it

Cantstandsya · 23-07-2020 5:23pm

Smouse156 wrote: »

I think your a little confused! The FTB grant is only for new builds, therefore your second hand house isn’t eligible. It’s is highly likely this will depress second hand homes as everyone will go towards the zero deposit new builds.

Think about it logically, a 300k new build where the buyer needs zero down vs a second hand one where the buyer needs 30k saved on Irish wages.

Outcome, the new build flies off the shelf and the second hand house drops it’s asking to 275k

Or the 300k new house now costs 330k.

Dylan94 · 23-07-2020 5:23pm

Smouse156 wrote: »

Actually all it does is help demand in one particular segment of the market! Builders and FTBs. It helps the rent slaves break their chains and become home owners so bad for landlords as well. Builders making more cash will help them increase output further increasing supply which depresses prices.

This is the thinking of the Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown second house sellers. They wondered why the prices dropped 7% in 2019 when the whole market only fell 1%. The average price was held up by the new builds coming on stream but it hurt second hand expensive houses

If its only until the end of the year though, so I can't imagine it having that much of an effect on output. New builds take a long time to get after purchase so it will mostly effect those that have already purchased and are waiting for the house to be ready.

titan18 · 23-07-2020 5:32pm

Dylan94 wrote:

If its only until the end of the year though, so I can't imagine it having that much of an effect on output. New builds take a long time to get after purchase so it will mostly effect those that have already purchased and are waiting for the house to be ready.

This is Ireland, it'll get extended as is usual here

Shelga · 23-07-2020 5:41pm

Smouse156 wrote: »

I think your a little confused! The FTB grant is only for new builds, therefore your second hand house isn’t eligible. It’s is highly likely this will depress second hand homes as everyone will go towards the zero deposit new builds.

Think about it logically, a 300k new build where the buyer needs zero down vs a second hand one where the buyer needs 30k saved on Irish wages.

Outcome, the new build flies off the shelf and the second hand house drops it’s asking to 275k

Please, point me to new builds costing €300k anywhere within Dublin.

Another policy that does nothing for single people, because buying a new build is so laughably far removed from what I can afford!

Yes yes I know, 2 people equals more money, blah blah.

Smouse156 · 23-07-2020 5:45pm

Shelga wrote: »

Please, point me to new builds costing €300k anywhere within Dublin.

Another policy that does nothing for single people, because buying a new build is so laughably far removed from what I can afford!

Yes yes I know, 2 people equals more money, blah blah.

Well not much in Dublin for 300k bar one bed apartments. But outside more naturally. However, 400k new builds will need 10k deposit v 20k previously. That definitely helps

hometruths · 23-07-2020 5:55pm

Smouse156 wrote: »

You don’t understand! It won’t help your second hand house, when it depreciates due to buyers flocking to all the new builds and ignoring your place. Then you’ll get it

For years my property has been appreciating in a large part thanks to buyers flocking to all the new builds in the area. Long may they continue to flock at ever increasing prices.

The people buying new build houses in my area are not consciously ignoring my house in favour of a new build, but it’s just so far off their radar it might as well be in a different county.

However you’d need to be a serious half wit to consider that the confidence in their segment of the market does not have a positive impact on the confidence in my segment.

This holds true at a local, regional and national level to some extent.

awec · 23-07-2020 6:06pm

schmittel wrote: »

For years my property has been appreciating in a large part thanks to buyers flocking to all the new builds in the area. Long may they continue to flock at ever increasing prices.

The people buying new build houses in my area are not consciously ignoring my house in favour of a new build, but it’s just so far off their radar it might as well be in a different county.

However you’d need to be a serious half wit to consider that the confidence in their segment of the market does not have a positive impact on the confidence in my segment.

This holds true at a local, regional and national level to some extent.

Yes, the HTB does make second hand houses suffer, but only second hand houses that you would expect FTBs to be in a position to buy. You're talking the 3/4 bed semis in the sub-500 price range.

A FTB getting an extra 10k to buy a brand new house is not going to have much impact on the demand for a nice 4/5 bed gaff on it's 1/4 acre site that costs 600/700k.

TheSheriff · 23-07-2020 6:10pm

This is putting money in the pockets of builders.

This will undoubtedly cause a creep up on new builds first; second hand homes will follow general market trends.

The 320k house will now become 330k. Bigger mortgage repayments etc.

Coupled with the housing ministers "go forth county councils and buy up all the houses for social housing".

What is this government thinking.

thomas 123 · 23-07-2020 6:13pm

So guys does this mean I don’t need a deposit on a 300k new build(if I have that paid in tax)?

I have been saving away and have a good bit, just someone tell me what this means.

hometruths · 23-07-2020 6:16pm

TheSheriff wrote: »

This is putting money in the pockets of builders.

This will undoubtedly cause a creep up on new builds first; second hand homes will follow general market trends.

The 300k house will now become 330k. Bigger mortgage repayments etc.

Coupled with the housing ministers "go forth country councils and buy up all the houses for social housing".

What is this government thinking.

I’d say it’s thinking that the votes from the property investing and home owning cohorts are more valuable than those of the homeless and renting class.

Business as usual in other words.

But a simple understanding of demographics will tell you that the long term mathematics of this strategy are not favorable.

And ultimately we’ll end up with a SF government propped up by PBP. This is unlikely to end well.

PommieBast · 23-07-2020 6:19pm

Yara Rich Camouflage wrote: »

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1286307924063727616

What good will come of this? Will this not just drive prices up?

How many FTB-ers (or any buyers for that matter) can actually get hold of a new-build?

TheSheriff · 23-07-2020 6:20pm

schmittel wrote: »

I’d say it’s thinking that the votes from the property investing and home owning cohorts are more valuable than those of the homeless and renting class.

Business as usual in other words.

But a simple understanding of demographics will tell you that the long term mathematics of this strategy are not favorable.

And ultimately we’ll end up with a SF government propped up by PBP. This is unlikely to end well.

Indeed, business as usual it seems indeed.

Property must be propped up at all cost.

BEdS_83 · 23-07-2020 6:22pm

Cantstandsya wrote: »

Or the 300k new house now costs 330k.

way more likely.

brisan · 23-07-2020 6:24pm

schmittel wrote: »

I’d say it’s thinking that the votes from the property investing and home owning cohorts are more valuable than those of the homeless and renting class.

Business as usual in other words.

But a simple understanding of demographics will tell you that the long term mathematics of this strategy are not favorable.

And ultimately we’ll end up with a SF government propped up by PBP. This is unlikely to end well.

Agree
SF have not gone away and if they had judged the mood properly at the last election they could have had 10-15 more seats and now be in government.
The housing crisis has not gone away either.
If FF-FG-Greens do no get their act together and make a serious dent in the housing crisis then SF will romp home next time
Many ways out of it but is the political will there to do it and will the builders co operate.
Hotel and commercial builds will grind to a halt once started builds are finished leaving a plentiful workforce.
Plenty of Government and Private land inside the M50 ring.
Get builders to tender to build on state land and the state provide the infrastructure.
Sell at a little above cost
Rinse and repeat.
However it might expose builders true profits and they may not engage
Little or no chance of cost overruns on house building

hometruths · 23-07-2020 6:25pm

Smouse156 wrote: »

Actually all it does is help demand in one particular segment of the market! Builders and FTBs. It helps the rent slaves break their chains and become home owners so bad for landlords as well. Builders making more cash will help them increase output further increasing supply which depresses prices.

This is the thinking of the Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown second house sellers. They wondered why the prices dropped 7% in 2019 when the whole market only fell 1%. The average price was held up by the new builds coming on stream but it hurt second hand expensive houses

The last time DLR dropped hard relative to other areas was nothing to do with new builds vs expensive second houses.

It was a leading indicator of a massive correction.

The market is a whole, and everything that happens within it, like a butterfly flapping its wings, has some effect on that whole.

Akesh · 23-07-2020 6:26pm

PommieBast wrote: »

How many FTB-ers (or any buyers for that matter) can actually get hold of a new-build?

Very few without help from mammy and daddy or an inheritance. For example a couple on 60k could never get a mortgage on a new build in Dublin unless it's a small apartment.

As people have said repeatedly, the government needs to work on affordability and to do that they need to start building affordable properties.

You are better off quitting your job, having 10 kids and forcing the council to look after you. It's a joke of a situation and I feel sorry for people trapped or those that will be saving 6-7 years for a deposit to buy a house so they can start a family.

awec · 23-07-2020 6:33pm

schmittel wrote: »

I’d say it’s thinking that the votes from the property investing and home owning cohorts are more valuable than those of the homeless and renting class.

Business as usual in other words.

But a simple understanding of demographics will tell you that the long term mathematics of this strategy are not favorable.

And ultimately we’ll end up with a SF government propped up by PBP. This is unlikely to end well.

HTB, ever since it was invented, was always about putting money in developer's pockets. It was to drive up supply by ensuring that developers could get a reasonable return on their outlays. The whole point was to raise prices, and then give buyers the money to offset this.

It was done in the manner it is for political reasons, it was better optics to give it to developers via buyers rather than give them tax breaks directly.

The veneer on HTB and it's true purpose has always been remarkably thin, so it would be surprising if people are only now realising what the point of it was.

Cyrus · 23-07-2020 6:42pm

Akesh wrote: »

Very few without help from mammy and daddy or an inheritance. For example a couple on 60k could never get a mortgage on a new build in Dublin unless it's a small apartment.

As people have said repeatedly, the government needs to work on affordability and to do that they need to start building affordable properties.

You are better off quitting your job, having 10 kids and forcing the council to look after you. It's a joke of a situation and I feel sorry for people trapped or those that will be saving 6-7 years for a deposit to buy a house so they can start a family.

A couple on 60k are low earners in Dublin what do you think they should be able to buy?

Cantstandsya · 23-07-2020 6:44pm

Cyrus wrote: »

A couple on 60k are low earners in Dublin what do you think they should be able to buy?

A home.

Chesty08 · 23-07-2020 6:48pm

Does the help to buy extension apply to Self Build?

I have my application in with revenue & it has been accepted (pre Covid)

I am signing off on mortgage & building contract this week.

Will I get extension or where would I find out?

Akesh · 23-07-2020 6:51pm

Cyrus wrote: »

A couple on 60k are low earners in Dublin what do you think they should be able to buy?

Are low earners not entitled to their own home? Nice attitude that.

Thierry12 · 23-07-2020 6:52pm

Akesh wrote: »

Very few without help from mammy and daddy or an inheritance. For example a couple on 60k could never get a mortgage on a new build in Dublin unless it's a small apartment.

As people have said repeatedly, the government needs to work on affordability and to do that they need to start building affordable properties.

You are better off quitting your job, having 10 kids and forcing the council to look after you. It's a joke of a situation and I feel sorry for people trapped or those that will be saving 6-7 years for a deposit to buy a house so they can start a family.

Legislation makes it's impossible to build affordable houses here

In Europe these type wooden frame houses are common and far far cheaper to build

http://prefabhome.eu/en/projects/open/ITALIA-S.F.

We are stuck in the stone age here, with concrete and brick

mariaalice · 23-07-2020 6:57pm

Cyrus wrote: »

A couple on 60k are low earners in Dublin what do you think they should be able to buy?

https://selfbuild.ie/news/affordable-serviced-sites-to-be-made-available-to-self-builders/

That is what the couple on 60k should be getting or a house from a housing cooperative.

https://www.rte.ie/archives/exhibitions/894-house-and-home/985809-housing-cooperatives/. I know it is from 1973 but that is what needs to be done now.

Or they should be getting social housing, a joint income of 60k is a very low income to support a mortgage in Dublin.

Iceman29 · 23-07-2020 7:06pm

when they say the HTB to be extended, what exactlt does that mean?
Was it not extended until 2021 at last years budget anyway??

Lia_lia · 23-07-2020 7:09pm

Akesh wrote: »

Very few without help from mammy and daddy or an inheritance. For example a couple on 60k could never get a mortgage on a new build in Dublin unless it's a small apartment.

As people have said repeatedly, the government needs to work on affordability and to do that they need to start building affordable properties.

You are better off quitting your job, having 10 kids and forcing the council to look after you. It's a joke of a situation and I feel sorry for people trapped or those that will be saving 6-7 years for a deposit to buy a house so they can start a family.

We have no help from Mammy or Daddy or inheritance and have just put a deposit down on a new build. Just years of saving and thankfully have well paid jobs. Also in Cork City so houses are a lot cheaper but not that cheap by any means!

hometruths · 23-07-2020 7:13pm

awec wrote: »

HTB, ever since it was invented, was always about putting money in developer's pockets. It was to drive up supply by ensuring that developers could get a reasonable return on their outlays. The whole point was to raise prices, and then give buyers the money to offset this.

It was done in the manner it is for political reasons, it was better optics to give it to developers via buyers rather than give them tax breaks directly.

The veneer on HTB and it's true purpose has always been remarkably thin, so it would be surprising if people are only now realising what the point of it was.

I think you might be overestimating the intelligence of many people. There are plenty of people who think it's a great boost to help FTBs and sure this time they have the added bonus of a VAT decrease too.

Cyrus wrote: »

so there is an increased FTB grant and the decrease in vat will bring prices down

yet you arent happy?

BEdS_83 · 23-07-2020 7:19pm

schmittel wrote: »

I think you might be overestimating the intelligence of many people. There are plenty of people who think it's a great boost to help FTBs and sure this time they have the added bonus of a VAT decrease too.

the 21% VAT is in relation to products not houses, I don't think that will affect the final price, even if it does, it won't reflect the final price to the consumers.
if I understood it correctly.

Cyrus · 23-07-2020 7:39pm

Cantstandsya wrote: »

A home.

And they can buy one

One bed apartment is that not a home ?

Cyrus · 23-07-2020 7:39pm

Akesh wrote: »

Are low earners not entitled to their own home? Nice attitude that.

I asked a question I didn’t make a statement you have misunderstood

PommieBast · 23-07-2020 7:58pm

Akesh wrote: »

Very few without help from mammy and daddy or an inheritance. For example a couple on 60k could never get a mortgage on a new build in Dublin unless it's a small apartment.

Few new-builds seem to be on the open-market for anyone at all. Had been looking at some of the new stock in my parents' area and it is a world of difference.

Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

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