Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

brisan · 18-09-2020 6:22pm

Darc19 wrote: »

I've never rated Dan obrien. Very much an indo scaremongerer. Goes for the headline.

Most of the jobs that are affected are in hospitality / tourism where part-time and Lower pay that contributes little tax is the norm.

Many of those affected are getting close to what they earned.

Tax receipts have held up very well especially paye and vat. People are spending and due to the type of industry we have here, most people are not fearful of unemployment.

House prices will drop a little. They needed to. You should be able to buy a decent 3 bed for under €300k in Dublin or places like Celbridge / Sallins.

But I can't see the Armageddon that some suggest.

Remember that the biggest problem in the last recession was a massive drop in tax revenues. Combined with massive personal debt. That is not happening this time.

DAN O’BRIEN
Chief Economist, Institute of International and European Affairs
he must be doing something right to have got that job

The Belly · 18-09-2020 6:28pm

brisan wrote: »

DAN O’BRIEN
Chief Economist, Institute of International and European Affairs
he must be doing something right to have got that job

He makes simple things complicated. When there is no need.

Cantstandsya · 18-09-2020 6:37pm

People keep referring to the fact that income tax hasn't been affected much.

Can someone tell me, if someone is on the covid payment does that count towards their pre tax pay and then they get taxed on the total as usual? i.e. are the government giving with one hand and taking away with the other?

Darc19 · 18-09-2020 6:39pm

brisan wrote: »

DAN O’BRIEN
Chief Economist, Institute of International and European Affairs
he must be doing something right to have got that job

I'm not saying he doesn't know his stuff, but he likes to look at it from a pessimistic view.

Perfect for the indo.

Bubbaclaus · 18-09-2020 6:41pm

Cantstandsya wrote: »

People keep referring to the fact that income tax hasn't been affected much.

Can someone tell me, if someone is on the covid payment does that count towards their pre tax pay and then they get taxed on the total as usual? i.e. are the government giving with one hand and taking away with the other?

It is a taxable payment, like the TWSS, but is not being taxed in real time. Will be collected in future years.

A lot on the covid payment wouldn't be earning enough to pay tax anyway, so probably not a huge amount of it coming back via tax collection.

Cyrus · 18-09-2020 6:47pm

cubatahavana wrote: »

Why do you say spain is a failed society? Standard of living way better than in Ireland

Is it ?

The Belly · 18-09-2020 6:53pm

Darc19 wrote: »

I'm not saying he doesn't know his stuff, but he likes to look at it from a pessimistic view.

Perfect for the indo.

you do not need the weatherman to tell you it's raining. And like met they always get it arseways:)

Darc19 · 18-09-2020 7:05pm

The Belly wrote: »

you do not need the weatherman to tell you it's raining. And like met they always get it arseways:)

4 weeks ago he said retail is going to be like the construction sector of the last crash.

Retail excellence who represent retailers said this week that retail has recovered strongly except in city center locations.

Also, a lot of hospitality in the tourism areas of Cork. Kerry, galway and the north west have had a good season.

So targeted supports are apt and I just can't see how the property market can drop in a substantial manner.

Though I am keeping an eye out for value to add property into a pension.

flexcon · 18-09-2020 7:10pm

Cantstandsya wrote: »

People keep referring to the fact that income tax hasn't been affected much.

Can someone tell me, if someone is on the covid payment does that count towards their pre tax pay and then they get taxed on the total as usual? i.e. are the government giving with one hand and taking away with the other?

Exactly this yes

So most people will owe about 20euro a week back on tax. But this is expected since this would be what they would pay anyway. They are not being had.

Bubbaclaus · 18-09-2020 7:15pm

cubatahavana wrote: »

Why do you say spain is a failed society? Standard of living way better than in Ireland

Is this meant to be sarcastic or something?

Under what criteria is standard of living in Spain "way better" than in Ireland?

Are you basing it on how much sun they get?

PropQueries · 18-09-2020 7:22pm

awec wrote: »

Everyone will go back to the old ways. Not even the most pessimistic crank believes this is going to be around forever.

Within a few years the covid aspect of this will all be yesterday’s news.

Absolute nonsense. In my opinion anyway. Bars mostly make their money from the 5 deep queues at the bar counter on a Friday and Saturday night.

The whole western system of the consumer economy is dependent upon rash spending (drunk people, sales event i.e. lots of people grouped together etc.)

Drunk people support the takeaways, taxis etc.

Many of the high spending tourists are older first generation Irish American visitors and they’re not coming back in any significant numbers.

I don’t think people are thinking this through.

Marius34 · 18-09-2020 7:30pm

Actually financially for working people, it's probably better in Ireland.
Net average monthly salary (adjusted for living costs in Purchasing power parity):

But for Quality of Life, Spain has better rating:

HotDudeLife · 18-09-2020 7:32pm

Marius34 wrote: »

Actually financially for working people, it's probably better in Ireland.
Net average monthly salary (adjusted for living costs in Purchasing power parity):

But for Quality of Life, Spain has better rating:

Source?

Marius34 · 18-09-2020 7:34pm

HotDudeLife wrote: »

Source?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_European_countries_by_average_wage

https://www.numbeo.com/quality-of-life/rankings_by_country.jsp?title=2020-mid&region=150

Bubbaclaus · 18-09-2020 7:36pm

They must not have asked the 20% that are unemployed across the south of Spain (and that was pre covid, I'd shudder to think what it is now) when they did that quality of life survey.

The Belly · 18-09-2020 7:39pm

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

They must not have asked the 20% that are unemployed across the south of Spain (and that was pre covid, I'd shudder to think what it is now) when they did that quality of life survey.

In normal times better to live in Barcelona or Valencia and commute if you can do the flights.

Marius34 · 18-09-2020 7:49pm

Actually I just realized there are so many different quality of life indexes, that in some it gives better results to Ireland, for others Spain.

In the end looking at financial side, Ireland appears to be by all measures better than Spain.

thefridge2006 · 18-09-2020 8:41pm

Graham wrote: »

I'm not convinced you quite grasp what examinership is.

It's not government support

Didn't say it was.....????

what i meant was that a lot of companies are more or less in the same boat as this company (that's in examinership) except they're on life support from the Government

Smouse156 · 18-09-2020 8:42pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

We could manage our housing problem with compulsory purchase orders of land.

Come on? Farmers need 100,000 times their income when they sell land! It’s only fair! Of course a farmer making 20k a year should get 200 million for a few fields

hometruths · 18-09-2020 8:48pm

awec wrote: »

So to clarify, you think people will no longer go out, and we're not getting any tourists back, ever.

You reckon we're the ones not thinking this through?

Covid is going to wreak havoc for a year or two, but please lets maintain some grip on reality before we descend into the rabid hysteria.

As soon as the restrictions are lifted (and they WILL be lifted, it is genuine insanity to think otherwise) the pubs will be 5 deep at the bar again. If they lifted the restrictions tomorrow, the pubs would be 5 deep tomorrow night. That is precisely why they have been so slow to open pubs. As soon as people are told they can fly again without quarantine (and they WILL be told this), they will fly. The idea that we are going to lose all our rich tourists forever is pure misery merchant stuff.

Agree with you that at some stage the covid threat will pass and the desire to get back to normal will be strong.

But the key is how much damage will have been done by then, if covid wreaks havoc for a year or two?

There are a heap of businesses who weren't exactly shooting the lights out pre covid, and this will finish them off. eg Ulster Bank and Cara chemists

And then there will be a ton of hitherto perfectly strong companies who can survive on fumes whilst the government are supporting them, but as soon as those supports are withdrawn they'll go wallop.

On top of that I think you will see a load of SMEs, particularly in tourism and hospitality, who had been doing absolutely fine, but owners will simply close down and retire gracefully. Ordinarily they would have sold the business as a going concern but that is unlikely now.

And when we do eventually get back to normal, don't underestimate the subtle shifts in human behaviour. Yes I think people will be gagging to get back to a packed bar or a busy restaurant, but once the novelty has worn off will they continue as often as they did pre covid?

I suspect we'll see a lot of people revert to whatever new habits they might have picked up during lockdown. eg eating out. I know loads of people who thought nothing of eating out two/three even four times a week. No chance of them continuing to do so, not because of a killer disease, just they have realised they actually enjoying cooking and eating at home.

These shifts in behaviour will translate into a lot of lost revenue for many businesses.

Yes. we'll recover in time, but it won't be V shaped, in my opinion.

EDIT: It seems your post I quoted has completely vanished?

pearcider · 18-09-2020 8:55pm

awec wrote: »

So to clarify, you think people will no longer go out, and we're not getting any tourists back, ever.

You reckon we're the ones not thinking this through?

Covid is going to wreak havoc for a year or two, but please lets maintain some grip on reality before we descend into the rabid hysteria.

As soon as the restrictions are lifted (and they WILL be lifted, it is genuine insanity to think otherwise) the pubs will be 5 deep at the bar again. If they lifted the restrictions tomorrow, the pubs would be 5 deep tomorrow night. That is precisely why they have been so slow to open pubs. As soon as people are told they can fly again without quarantine (and they WILL be told this), they will fly. The idea that we are going to lose all our rich tourists forever is pure misery merchant stuff.

Your optimism might be well founded if the entire western world wasn’t already a debt based “consumer” economy completely drowned in debt and destined for a catastrophic economic downturn well before this pandemic. Global debt is now 350% of GDP and we are only a few months into a 24-48 month pandemic. This does not have a happy ending.

Money doesn’t grow on trees. At the height of the last crisis in 2009 Ireland’s deficit was 23 billion that included 4 billion to Anglo...Care to guess what the budget deficit will be this year..?

18-09-2020 9:29pm

Smouse156 wrote: »

Come on? Farmers need 100,000 times their income when they sell land! It’s only fair! Of course a farmer making 20k a year should get 200 million for a few fields

CPO would allow councils to choose best place to build houses. Pay a fair price for the land and no more.

Assetbacked · 18-09-2020 9:33pm

awec wrote: »

Everyone will go back to the old ways. Not even the most pessimistic crank believes this is going to be around forever.

Within a few years the covid aspect of this will all be yesterday’s news.

We were nearing the end of a hyper growth cycle anyway which covid has just accelerated. People might want to go back to old ways but they won't have the cash to be able to.

While we hear about the jobs lost being low paid jobs, this (1) isn't all that is affected and (2) will still have significant negative effects to the economy.

On (1) we know that even the tech companies have cut jobs and where they haven't, they have stopped hiring. With the big law firms, all have frozen or cut salaries, partner payouts and even staff bonuses. I have some friends in these law firms who have told me this.

On (2), if students cant get their few hours in retail or in a bar, there goes rent and living expenses so the bank of mommy and daddy needs to step in, for those that can afford to. All late bars and nightclubs are closed in Ireland for at least another 6 months, that's the whole industry gone as we know it. For "wet" pubs in Dublin, it's all well and good giving restart grants for stock and wages while paying staff when they're closed but without the booming food trade during the day with tourists and office workers, most will go under without State subsidies which won't last indefinitely once they reopen. Additionally, even if low paid jobs aren't lost, they could be on less hours which means less cash to spend on rents and in the local economy.

I suppose a big benefit for this recession is that individual borrowing isn't high right now compared to the Celtic Tiger years. This will enable a quicker bounce back. I think companies and investors are the ones leveraged who will suffer horribly. For example, leveraged commercial property investors.

no.8 · 18-09-2020 9:36pm

Darc19 wrote:

Most of the jobs that are affected are in hospitality / tourism where part-time and Lower pay that contributes little tax is the norm.

I like to be optimistic in life but i feel you're far beyond that level. Let's not forget the aviation industry and the transport sector as a whole, services industry, new business generation etc.

no.8 · 18-09-2020 9:38pm

Darc19 wrote:

Remember that the biggest problem in the last recession was a massive drop in tax revenues. Combined with massive personal debt. That is not happening this time.

Im hopeful we don't have the same situation as the last recession but tax revenue will be a serious issue this time around too

pearcider · 18-09-2020 9:45pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

We were nearing the end of a hyper growth cycle anyway which covid has just accelerated. People might want to go back to old ways but they won't have the cahs to be able to.

While we hear about the jobs lost being low paid jobs, this (1) isn't all that is affected and (2) will still have significant negative effects to the economy.

On (1) we know that even the tech companies have cut jobs and where they haven't, they have stopped hiring. With the big law firms, all have frozen or cut salaries, partner payouts and even staff bonuses. I have some friends in these law firms who have told me this.

On (2), if students cant get their few hours in retail or in a bar, there goes rent and living expenses so the bank of mommy and daddy needs to step in, for those that can afford to. All late bars and nightclubs are closed in Ireland for at least another 6 months, that's the whole industry gone as we know it. For "wet" pubs in Dublin, it's all well and good giving restart grants for stock and wages while paying staff when they're closed but without the booming food trade during the day with tourists and office workers, most will go under without State subsidies which won't last indefinitely once they reopen. Additionally, even if low paid jobs aren't lost, they could be on less hours which means less cash to spend on rents and in the local economy.

I suppose a big benefit for this recession is that individual borrowing isn't high right now compared to the Celtic Tiger years. This will enable a quicker bounce back. I think companies and investors are the ones leveraged who will suffer horribly. For example, leveraged commercial property investors.

While that may be true about individual borrowing our government debt is now enormous. We are all on the hook for that monstrosity including the prudent savers among us. We were already paying 10% of our tax take on interest alone and that’s at record low interest rates and pre Covid.

hometruths · 18-09-2020 10:50pm

Two 1950s 3 bed bungalows in SCD, both in need of modernisation.

19 Redesdale Road - sold November 2018 for €770k
21 Redesdale Road - sold September 2020 for €610k

No 19 has had some recent work eg new windows, and some internal insulation.
No 21 has an extra 24 sqm, presumably thanks to the attic conversion which makes it potentially a 4/5 bed.

Those are the main differences I can see - anybody else see something I am missing that accounts for the 20% price drop since 2018?

Darc19 · 18-09-2020 10:59pm

schmittel wrote: »

Two 1950s 3 bed bungalows in SCD, both in need of modernisation.

19 Redesdale Road - sold November 2018 for €770k
21 Redesdale Road - sold September 2020 for €610k

No 19 has had some recent work eg new windows, and some internal insulation.
No 21 has an extra 24 sqm, presumably thanks to the attic conversion which makes it potentially a 4/5 bed.

Those are the main differences I can see - anybody else see something I am missing that accounts for the 20% price drop since 2018?

The antique carpet in #19. Definitely an original 1965 Curragh design, worth a fortune

Wanderer78 · 18-09-2020 11:04pm

no.8 wrote:

Im hopeful we don't have the same situation as the last recession but tax revenue will be a serious issue this time around too

Unfortunately, globally, a similar set of issues, is once again arising in our financial services, a dramatic fall in demand for new credit and an increasing likelihood of defaults and none performing loans, expect trouble!

pearcider wrote:

While that may be true about individual borrowing our government debt is now enormous. We are all on the hook for that monstrosity including the prudent savers among us. We were already paying 10% of our tax take on interest alone and thatâ€™s at record low interest rates and pre Covid.

Rising public debt rarely causes crashes, private debt is the most dangerous one, and globally, this is still the case, as above, expect trouble!

Hubertj · 18-09-2020 11:07pm

schmittel wrote: »

Two 1950s 3 bed bungalows in SCD, both in need of modernisation.

19 Redesdale Road - sold November 2018 for €770k
21 Redesdale Road - sold September 2020 for €610k

No 19 has had some recent work eg new windows, and some internal insulation.
No 21 has an extra 24 sqm, presumably thanks to the attic conversion which makes it potentially a 4/5 bed.

Those are the main differences I can see - anybody else see something I am missing that accounts for the 20% price drop since 2018?

Insane prices.
My friends mum lives on that road. I’d say both are executor sales. People on that road were old 20 years ago!
Is that a big telescope in a pic of 21?

hometruths · 19-09-2020 8:53am

Hubertj wrote: »

Insane prices.
My friends mum lives on that road. I’d say both are executor sales. People on that road were old 20 years ago!
Is that a big telescope in a pic of 21?

It sort of looks like it, but it is one hell of of a big telescope, though I guess it would be valley of the squinting windows area!

I also wondered if it was some sort of morbid medical device.

beauf · 19-09-2020 8:59am

Assetbacked wrote: »

....On (1) we know that even the tech companies have cut jobs and where they haven't, they have stopped hiring. With the big law firms, all have frozen or cut salaries, partner payouts and even staff bonuses. I have some friends in these law firms who have told me this....

Not all. We've taken on 3 new hires in our unit during the lockdown and new contractors. Outside of my own place, I know a few people in new jobs hired and interviewed remotely. One of which is in legal, solicitor etc.

I also know people who have lost jobs and/or not working. So it's a bit of a mixed bag.. Lot more out then in overall though obviously.

neutral guy · 19-09-2020 9:14am

I dont worry about growing debt of Ireland untill country able pay her debt and investors continue lending.
In last years money are very cheap on markets if not free what is good for refinance the debt
Some money are even with negative rate
But money will be more expensive once global recession will be started
If country will be in trouble pay her debt VAT will be rised to 30 per cent / income taxes to heaven high/etc/etc/etc
How much people has savings in Ireland ?240 billions ? What is debt of Ireand ? So there is plenty place to rise taxes,country has plenty money.

Hubertj · 19-09-2020 9:27am

schmittel wrote: »

It sort of looks like it, but it is one hell of of a big telescope, though I guess it would be valley of the squinting windows area!

I also wondered if it was some sort of morbid medical device.

There were plenty of nosey neighbours! Pretty sure it is a telescope

neutral guy · 19-09-2020 9:54am

Neighbours is the best alarm system on area.
Be nice for your neighbour.
I would definitely not against if all my neighbours could keep eye on my house using telescopes.
Great help going for holiday,great helpers for Garda if anything happens.

PropQueries · 19-09-2020 10:21am

Interesting article on university students, Covid and the rental market “Students in rush for cars as they can’t afford rents in the city”.

“Peter remarked that his own daughter had an accommodation bill of €10,000 in college in Dublin last year, without accounting for food, fees or other expenses.

Due to COVID, some students may only be going back for eight hours a week of lectures and to have to pay a full week’s accommodation for that would be madness."

Link to article in Irish independent here: https://m.independent.ie/regionals/corkman/news/students-in-rush-for-cars-as-they-cant-afford-rents-in-the-city-39537471.html

Wanderer78 · 19-09-2020 10:23am

neutral guy wrote: »

I dont worry about growing debt of Ireland untill country able pay her debt and investors continue lending.
In last years money are very cheap on markets if not free what is good for refinance the debt
Some money are even with negative rate
But money will be more expensive once global recession will be started
If country will be in trouble pay her debt VAT will be rised to 30 per cent / income taxes to heaven high/etc/etc/etc
How much people has savings in Ireland ?240 billions ? What is debt of Ireand ? So there is plenty place to rise taxes,country has plenty money.

again, rising public debt has caused far less problems than rising private debt, as we ve recently experienced, yet again

coolshannagh28 · 19-09-2020 10:48am

Wanderer78 wrote: »

again, rising public debt has caused far less problems than rising private debt, as we ve recently experienced, yet again

Wrong , our public debt in the form of rising PS wages and costs caused the last recession , private debt may have triggered it but the public debt left over from that will cripple us in the next depression.

Wanderer78 · 19-09-2020 10:53am

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

Wrong , our public debt in the form of rising PS wages and costs caused the last recession , private debt may have triggered it but the public debt left over from that will cripple us in the next depression.

nope, the rapid rise of private debt was the main cause of the last recession, this is clearly obvious in the data, and this was obviously due to the encouragement of rapidly growing property prices and connected activities, etc. again, theres also plenty of data and research to prove, rising private debt is far more dangerous than rapidly rising public debt, this just doesnt suit certain political and economic ideologies

Balluba · 19-09-2020 11:05am

I constantly pass a house that I would like to buy. It has been rented out for several years. It had a market value of around €530,000 (pre covid) A friend checked it out and it sold to the current owners in 1997 with a charge of 120,000 held by the Bank. In 2017 that charge of €120,000 was sold on by the bank to Oyster Prementoria (vulture)
This house suits me for many reasons and there is no other house like it on the road. Am I wasting my time hoping that it will come on the market?

Pelezico · 19-09-2020 11:16am

Balluba wrote: »

I constantly pass a house that I would like to buy. It has been rented out for several years. It had a market value of around €530,000 (pre covid) A friend checked it out and it sold to the current owners in 1997 with a charge of 120,000 held by the Bank. In 2017 that charge of €120,000 was sold on by the bank to Oyster Prementoria (vulture)
This house suits me for many reasons and there is no other house like it on the road. Am I wasting my time hoping that it will come on the market?

Yeah

neutral guy · 19-09-2020 11:33am

Balluba wrote: »

I constantly pass a house that I would like to buy. It has been rented out for several years. It had a market value of around €530,000 (pre covid) A friend checked it out and it sold to the current owners in 1997 with a charge of 120,000 held by the Bank. In 2017 that charge of €120,000 was sold on by the bank to Oyster Prementoria (vulture)
This house suits me for many reasons and there is no other house like it on the road. Am I wasting my time hoping that it will come on the market?

God ways unknown.Simply keep holding and increasing your ammount of money and keep looking.

Pelezico · 19-09-2020 11:54am

neutral guy wrote: »

God ways unknown.Simply keep holding and increasing your ammount of money and keep looking.

The one house in the universe which will make him happy. Imagine that.

Hubertj · 19-09-2020 11:59am

Pelezico wrote: »

The one house in the universe which will make him happy. Imagine that.

DREAM HOME? FOREVER HOME?

cnocbui · 19-09-2020 12:03pm

PropQueries wrote: »

Interesting article on university students, Covid and the rental market “Students in rush for cars as they can’t afford rents in the city”.

“Peter remarked that his own daughter had an accommodation bill of €10,000 in college in Dublin last year, without accounting for food, fees or other expenses.

Due to COVID, some students may only be going back for eight hours a week of lectures and to have to pay a full week’s accommodation for that would be madness."

Link to article in Irish independent here: https://m.independent.ie/regionals/corkman/news/students-in-rush-for-cars-as-they-cant-afford-rents-in-the-city-39537471.html

A young hair dresser I met, near Limerick, said she was looking for somewhere to rent locally, but was having difficulty, as she wanted to reduce her commute from Ennis to Dublin for college.

Balluba · 19-09-2020 12:18pm

Pelezico wrote: »

Were you hitting on her at the time?

Pelezico that was designed to appeal to the lowest common denominator
There’s no need to be so critical

Leozord · 19-09-2020 12:51pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

On (1) we know that even the tech companies have cut jobs and where they haven't, they have stopped hiring.

By my personal experience, this is not true

My company is hiring here in Dublin. We hired professionals/interns during the pandemic, without even face-to-face meeting. People are still joining on a weekly basis.

Job offers from linkedin recruiters haven't been impacted, to be honest I've received even more offers.

I'm not saying tech is flying and it is unbeatable, but it didn't get any major impact, at least within my social circle.

Are there any other SDEs here who could relate?

Wanderer78 · 19-09-2020 12:53pm

Leozord wrote: »

By my personal experience, this is not true

My company is hiring here in Dublin. We hired professionals/interns during the pandemic, without even face-to-face meeting. People are still joining on a weekly basis.

Job offers from linkedin recruiters haven't been impacted, to be honest I've received even more offers.

I'm not saying tech is flying and it is unbeatable, but it didn't get any major impact, at least within my social circle.

Are there any other SDEs here who could relate?

makes sense that the sector is doing very well during the pandemic, for obvious reasons

Curious_Case · 19-09-2020 1:01pm

Is there an Irish website that can estimate property value based on the usual parameters ?

House type
No. of beds
No. of bathrooms
Size of garden
Parking
County etc.

Property Price Register isn't really helpful as mine is a poorly maintained house, but in a good area.

Mic 1972 · 19-09-2020 1:01pm

I changed job during the pandemic/lock-down, i was unemployed for barely one month before finding a new job.

Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

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