Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Bass Reeves · 15-07-2020 12:30pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

If they weren't being built to rent they would be built to sell and money would be made. Those with the money to build them would still make money.

Not necessarily, a builder building houses on a site can build in batches. He has limited exposure, yes site is an up front cost but houses can be drip fed onto the market. From start of construction to finish a house can be build in as little as 12 weeks but 20weeks is very doable. As well some builders may insist on stage payments but not extremely popular with buyers or banks because of risk involved.

Capital cost to build a house might be 200k(all vat can be claimed back as an ongoing expense and added at end. Builder in this situation can manage to get 60 days credit off suppliers. So on a 10 houses in progress with a builder a million in finance may keep him going. As well final finish of the site the start of which can be left until 50-60%complete so big cashflow saved there

Apartment block of 40 apartments are no cheaper to build than houses complete block and need to be finished before annyone is allowed to live there as well they are harder to pre sell and project may take two years. There is huge risk in an economic downturn that even takes 4-6%off the price. Builder would need 8 million in total finance and most of that would be in play for 12 months. The sums needed for a 100+apartment site as well as maybe carpark and maybe a commercial element could be 20 million plus

Graham · 15-07-2020 12:33pm

Iceman29 wrote: »

Things aren't looking too rosy for house prices... looks like there was a decrease before this Covid-19 sh1tstorm arrived.
Residential property prices rose only 0.3 per cent across the State in the 12 months to the end of May while prices in Dublin were unchanged, according to the Central Statistics Office (CSO).

Isn't that a decrease in growth rather than a decrease in prices?

brisan · 15-07-2020 12:36pm

Iceman29 wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/property-price-growth-slowed-in-may-as-transactions-plunged-1.4305091?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Feconomy%2Fproperty-price-growth-slowed-in-may-as-transactions-plunged-1.4305091

Things aren't looking too rosy for house prices... looks like there was a decrease before this Covid-19 sh1tstorm arrived.
Residential property prices rose only 0.3 per cent across the State in the 12 months to the end of May while prices in Dublin were unchanged, according to the Central Statistics Office (CSO).

The data shows that growth in property prices is continuing to slow down. In the year to April, prices rose 0.7 per cent.

Since January prices for all property in Dublin has fallen from 124.5 to 124.1
Base 100 was 2015
So only a very small drop with a high of 127.7 in Oct 18.
Prices just continuing their gradual steadying of the last 18 months or so .
Come late in the year when the mortgage approval decline starts to bite then the market will show its true colours

SozBbz · 15-07-2020 12:40pm

Iceman29 wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/property-price-growth-slowed-in-may-as-transactions-plunged-1.4305091?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Feconomy%2Fproperty-price-growth-slowed-in-may-as-transactions-plunged-1.4305091

Things aren't looking too rosy for house prices... looks like there was a decrease before this Covid-19 sh1tstorm arrived.
Residential property prices rose only 0.3 per cent across the State in the 12 months to the end of May while prices in Dublin were unchanged, according to the Central Statistics Office (CSO).

The data shows that growth in property prices is continuing to slow down. In the year to April, prices rose 0.7 per cent.

So, growth at 0.3% is your version of a sh1tstorm?

I don't think there are any posters here suggesting that there will continue to be massive YoY growth - I think those of us who are not overly pessimistic about the market still thought that we were probably in and about at affordability limits and even some movement +/- a few % points, thats normal in a functional market. And we have held that opinion since well before Covid19.

Bass Reeves · 15-07-2020 1:05pm

SozBbz wrote: »

So, growth at 0.3% is your version of a sh1tstorm?

I don't think there are any posters here suggesting that there will continue to be massive YoY growth - I think those of us who are not overly pessimistic about the market still thought that we were probably in and about at affordability limits and even some movement +/- a few % points, thats normal in a functional market. And we have held that opinion since well before Covid19.

I think those that think a ****storm like 2008-14 will take place are deluded. I think any so called correction will be sub10%. The fundamentals of supply are totally different to 2008

Cantstandsya · 15-07-2020 1:18pm

Bass Reeves wrote: »

I think those that think a ****storm like 2008-14 will take place are deluded. I think any so called correction will be sub10%. The fundamentals of supply are totally different to 2008

There was limited supply in plenty of places back in 08 but the crash affected those areas all the same.

An abundance of houses in Leitrim doesn't offset how many houses you can stick in Dun Laoghaire

I don't think there will be massive drops either but supply is only part of the picture. If the banks restrict credit then prices go down, simple as that, regardless of supply.

cnocbui · 15-07-2020 1:19pm

Claw Hammer wrote: »

If they weren't being built to rent they may well not be built at all. The developers don't have the money, they rely on finance. Finance perspective building is extremely expensive. The general situation facing developers is that they get no credit for building materials and have to pay for labour as the build progresses. If there is large interest accruing on this it can make the development on profitable. If anything goes wrong such as a delay the whole thing becomes a zero-sum game. The funds approach a developer and offer to provide funding as the build progresses and pay a fixed sum at the end. This removes all the uncertainty and enables projects to start and move the completion. It is nonsense to suggest that the development would be built anyway. Very few would.

At every opportunity, you allege that the REITs provide the funding for the building of Apartments. Your argument being they are the good guys and that without their funding, they wouldn't have been built.

Can you supply evidence for this please, because all of the news reports I have seen state categorically that the REITs purchased the apartments on completion. Not a single source that I have found has said REITs are funding construction.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/just-8-000-houses-built-last-year-offered-for-sale-on-open-market-says-cif-1.4177876

brisan · 15-07-2020 2:03pm

Cantstandsya wrote: »

There was limited supply in plenty of places back in 08 but the crash affected those areas all the same.

An abundance of houses in Leitrim doesn't offset how many houses you can stick in Dun Laoghaire

I don't think there will be massive drops either but supply is only part of the picture. If the banks restrict credit then prices go down, simple as that, regardless of supply.

The amount of mortgages banks approved in April and may were at record lows both in volume and value .
I know this had a lot to do with covid payments etc ,but when they stop and the real unemployment rate emerges then banks will be extremely cautious and mortgages will be hard to get .
Credit availability will be a major factor in house prices going forward

Assetbacked · 15-07-2020 2:41pm

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/property-price-growth-slowed-in-may-as-transactions-plunged-1.4305091

The narrative in the biased media is that prices not continuing to rise must be seen as a bad thing, not as a correction of an inflated market. Phrasing the data as "price growth slowdown" is to display pure bias.

The article then throws in quotes to let us all know there is nothing to worry about. For example;

KBC quote;

With property price register data suggesting an even sharper year-on-year drop in sales in June, this also forcefully suggests the major impact of the pandemic on the Irish property market in 2020 is likely to be seen primarily in the form of depressed activity levels rather than dramatically lower prices.

Oh, that's a relief, so the pandemic will just result in less transactional activity, not a reduction in prices.

While home prices have rebounded substantially from their post-financial crisis lows, they still remain 18.1 per cent off the peak in 2007 with prices in Dublin more than 22 per cent lower.

Ah, so we still have a bit of headroom.

hometruths · 15-07-2020 2:48pm

cnocbui wrote: »

At every opportunity, you allege that the REITs provide the funding for the building of Apartments. Your argument being they are the good guys and that without their funding, they wouldn't have been built.

Can you supply evidence for this please, because all of the news reports I have seen state categorically that the REITs purchased the apartments on completion. Not a single source that I have found has said REITs are funding construction.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/just-8-000-houses-built-last-year-offered-for-sale-on-open-market-says-cif-1.4177876

Build to rent is booming. i.e they are built to be operated/sold as a portfolio of rental investments.

From May 2019: Rush for build-to-rent as plans for more than 6,000 properties are tabled in just five days

Plans have been lodged for more than 6,000 residential properties in the space of five days - many of which will never go on sale to families.

The applications for the 6,008 residential units represent one-third of the 18,072 residential units completed throughout Ireland in 2018.

Some 2,814, or 47pc, of the total are for build-to-rent apartment developments for the capital.

...The largest planning application put before the appeals board for consultation is by Arbeten Ltd for 1,009 build-to-rent apartments at the former CB Packaging site in Clondalkin, Dublin.

Development Ocht has plans for 492 build-to-rent apartments at lands at Concord Industrial Estate, Naas Road, Walkinstown, Dublin.

Elsewhere in the capital, Ardstone Homes Ltd is to seek planning for 594 units at Beechpark and Maryfield, Scholarstown Road, broken down between 482 build-to-rent units and 112 which will be sold.

Steelworks Property Developments Ltd is also seeking to build 336 build-to-rent apartments at Cookstown Industrial Estate Road in Tallaght.

It is certainly true to say that these properties would not be built if it were not for the REITs and their rental model.

Marius34 · 15-07-2020 3:10pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/property-price-growth-slowed-in-may-as-transactions-plunged-1.4305091

The narrative in the biased media is that prices not continuing to rise must be seen as a bad thing, not as a correction of an inflated market. Phrasing the data as "price growth slowdown" is to display pure bias.

The article then throws in quotes to let us all know there is nothing to worry about. For example;

KBC quote;

Oh, that's a relief, so the pandemic will just result in less transactional activity, not a reduction in prices.

Ah, so we still have a bit of headroom.

I agree the article is a bit unprofessional. To say "price growth slowdown" makes no sense for the price changes of +/-0.x %. Those are extremely low numbers to tell directions.
On other note your interpretation is way more bias than the article itself.

cnocbui · 15-07-2020 3:13pm

schmittel wrote: »

Build to rent is booming. i.e they are built to be operated/sold as a portfolio of rental investments.

From May 2019:

It is certainly true to say that these properties would not be built if it were not for the REITs and their rental model.

No it isn't. It's already been shown that the REITs are paying less per unit than what individuals would have paid.

There is no guarantee that the REITs will buy the units built, but the builders know that isn't really a risk as they stand to make even more profit by selling to the public instead, should that happen.

I think it would be more accurate to say that overwhelming demand is seeing these projects go ahead.

hometruths · 15-07-2020 3:22pm

cnocbui wrote: »

No it isn't. It's already been shown that the REITs are paying less per unit than what individuals would have paid.

There is no guarantee that the REITs will buy the units built, but the builders know that isn't really a risk as they stand to make even more profit by selling to the public instead, should that happen.

I think it would be more accurate to say that overwhelming demand is seeing these projects go ahead.

I wouldn’t agree with any of that at all. They are seeking planning permission on the basis that they will not be sold to the public.

It’s a business model and one that is increasing (or was pre covid). Claw Hammer is completely correct as far as I can see.

Assetbacked · 15-07-2020 3:26pm

Marius34 wrote: »

I agree the article is a bit unprofessional. To say "price growth slowdown" makes no sense for the price changes of +/-0.x %. Those are extremely low numbers to tell directions.
On other note your interpretation is way more bias than the article itself.

It's Boards.ie accommodation and property, we are all biased here but do not portray ourselves as impartial in the same way the media claim to be.

fret_wimp2 · 15-07-2020 3:41pm

schmittel wrote: »

I wouldn’t agree with any of that at all. They are seeking planning permission on the basis that they will not be sold to the public.

It’s a business model and one that is increasing (or was pre covid). Claw Hammer is completely correct as far as I can see.

Its the government model to supply "accommodation".
SHD's are currently the main vehicle for this, with 300-500 unit projects being rushed through planning anywhere there is some spare ground, often with 20% or more officially going to social housing through Section V and probably a lot more eventually.

The council have even stopped peppering social throughout new projects, instead concentrating it in individual blocks or buildings as they can get better management rates (councils words not mine). They are ignoring the reason for Section V, to avoid future ballymun's, dolphins bar's and Darndale's, all for saving a few quid in the short term.

Dublin is set to change quite drastically in the next few years based on this, drastically for anyone on or near brown sites or new build estates but to a degree in older settled locations where there is available space, and nobody locally with the clout to challenge it in the high court.

If this change is for the good, probably depends on where you sit in relation to property, if you own, rent or are in social accommodation, with owners benefiting the least, followed closely/equally by people who want to buy but never even get the option as the stock all goes to REIT's for long term rental.

Id rather the value of my house drop, allowing more individuals & families on the property ladder as at least they will be invested in the area and want to see it kept and improved. Renting does not give someone "skin in the game" in an area, its just a place to live before you buy somewhere else.
Unfortunately this is the way of things and probably the only major reason that would make me consider leaving Dublin.

fliball123 · 15-07-2020 4:25pm

Hi all has anyone seen any reductions so far to date, I have a brother and a mate trying to buy and they say everything is going well above asking price this is around d13 and d5 areas..Is this a trend in the rest of dublin/country?

Iceman29 · 15-07-2020 5:22pm

fliball123 wrote: »

Hi all has anyone seen any reductions so far to date, I have a brother and a mate trying to buy and they say everything is going well above asking price this is around d13 and d5 areas..Is this a trend in the rest of dublin/country?

Yes, I've seen loads to be honest. Also seeing a lot of EAs taking down ads and relisting them at a much lower price to avoid the arrows

SteelyDanJalapeno · 15-07-2020 5:35pm

fliball123 wrote: »

Hi all has anyone seen any reductions so far to date, I have a brother and a mate trying to buy and they say everything is going well above asking price this is around d13 and d5 areas..Is this a trend in the rest of dublin/country?

Ya Google my home price reductions, that will show you the honest drops

0gac3yjefb5sv7 · 15-07-2020 5:50pm

No reductions on anything I've bid on anyway. House went 40k over asking yesterday.

wassie · 15-07-2020 6:02pm

The key will be if these sales actually transact. I'm seeing a number of properties that went sale agreed pre-lockdown now coming back on to the market at the original asking price. I assume its because of purchasers being in receipt of covid payments. Just my observation and not necessarily representative of anything.

random_banter · 15-07-2020 6:49pm

Iceman29 wrote: »

Yes, I've seen loads to be honest. Also seeing a lot of EAs taking down ads and relisting them at a much lower price to avoid the arrows

I've been keeping a spreadsheet of 30+ houses for the last 4 months, as we were ready to start bidding when this crisis hit. Have been checking every week to see if any reductions occurred. This week there was a lot of movement, maybe 11 are now Sale Agreed, 2 sold, but for the first time ever I have seen asking price drops - just a few, but significant. One house I was watching went from 595k - 545k, another with a 25k drop, another with 65k drop (that one was way out of budget

)

This is only anecdotal of course, and a small sample.

JJJackal · 15-07-2020 7:47pm

brisan wrote: »

The amount of mortgages banks approved in April and may were at record lows both in volume and value .
I know this had a lot to do with covid payments etc ,but when they stop and the real unemployment rate emerges then banks will be extremely cautious and mortgages will be hard to get .
Credit availability will be a major factor in house prices going forward

I suspect its also due to the fact that you couldnt go to the bank as easily...

Or get the mountain of paper work complete (who in hr would supply you with details of pay etc)

Or go to a mortgage broker

With the reduced pay a significant contributor too

CBear1993 · 15-07-2020 7:51pm

This reduction in house prices is Good for house buyers surely, and people looking to add to their property portfolio, but is it also a sign that we are entering an economic downturn/recession? Temporarily or long term I don’t know.... was talking to the estate agent I bought my apartment in Dublin through last week and he was anticipating a dip but didn’t know for how long.

CBear1993 · 15-07-2020 7:54pm

I’m asking btw! Wouldn’t pretend to have any clue about economics or property. Was a first time buyer last year and thinking long term . Say 18 months - 2 years of buying a proper house and selling the apartment.

Assetbacked · 15-07-2020 8:20pm

CBear1993 wrote: »

This reduction in house prices is Good for house buyers surely, and people looking to add to their property portfolio, but is it also a sign that we are entering an economic downturn/recession? Temporarily or long term I don’t know.... was talking to the estate agent I bought my apartment in Dublin through last week and he was anticipating a dip but didn’t know for how long.

Property prices are strongly linked to the general economic sutuation.

This is an uncertain and bizarre economic situation. Central banks are pumping cash into the economic system to prop up the typically rolled out stats used to define a country's prosperity rather than it being necessarily reflective of the real economy.

The pandemic rages on so some people are in a terrible financial position, others in a good position and others unchanged. There is still great uncertainty as to where it ends.

In terms of actual data which may assist with developing a view on the economy and where it may end up, it is worth highlighting that the big banks in the US this week outlined that they have made provision for billions of bad loan losses, MNCs in Ireland (a significant source of corporate tax revenue, jobs and indirect taxation contributions to Ireland) were given a massive boost with the General Court decision today, Brexit is looming which probably presents an opportunity in terms of Irish assets, the US stock market is catastrophically tilted in favour of a few massive tech stocks, job losses have been announced across retail and airline industries in Ireland in recent weeks, students won't be back on campus for at least another 6 months. All of this is just part of the wider economic picture which feeds into the property market. In the Irish context we had SF make a lot of progress in the last election because the FF and FG governments have neglected the younger people with respect to housing.

All of the above are on my radar and form part of my overall economic outlook which feeds into a macro property market view. But I have a bias, as we all do on
Boards.ie; I rent but do not have strong wish to buy or even stay in Ireland long term and my parents are downsizing so looking to cash in on their house.

There are segments of the housing market in Ireland that should be viewed as segments. Eg new builds under 600k, South Dublin semis over 1.2m, 250k apartments in Castle knock etc. Some will fare okay but others won't.

I would stock up on savings and clear debt if I was relying on a salary for a living in these pressing times. That is my net position.

Queenio · 15-07-2020 8:28pm

I have tentatively gone sale agreed today for 15k under asking. Solicitor actually congratulated me. He said it's the first sale he had seen in many weeks that went below asking. House in south city dublin. I will admit I was surprised

Assetbacked · 15-07-2020 9:26pm

Queenio wrote: »

I have tentatively gone sale agreed today for 15k under asking. Solicitor actually congratulated me. He said it's the first sale he had seen in many weeks that went below asking. House in south city dublin. I will admit I was surprised

Happy for you, enjoy the security and sense of accomplishment! Well deserved I'm sure.

MrMusician18 · 16-07-2020 10:11am

Was out for a walk last night and passed that half a house in Churchtown. Couldn't believe it's gone sale agreed.

There is literally a buyer for anything.

Villa05 · 16-07-2020 10:58am

Assetbacked wrote:

Central banks are pumping cash into the economic system to prop up the typically rolled out stats used to define a country's prosperity rather than it being necessarily reflective of the real economy.

Very good summary
Central banks have been pumping the system with cash for the last decade but it only appears to be pumping up asset prices especially USA
Our GDP figures are a con based on plus they were significantly added to by aircraft leasing, which would be a non existent in the current environment

With regard to Corporation tax, irl Inc won the battle but the decision has stepped up the war. The EU are going for us and who could blame them. They are looking at Irish solutions in getting around the laws to solve an EU problem.

BOD1981 wrote:

While we are happy to get the monkey off our back there is mixed feelings on my part, we really needed to get this over the line as time is not on our side but i can't help but think if i was 5-10 years younger i could wait it out a year or two and really get a good deal which would help set us up financially as we are borrowing pretty much near max capacity with this deal.

Thrust me you get the same feeling in 2014. From your limited info, I think you made the right decision. I would agree that younger people should wait it out as they are the people that suffer most in recessions especially the way the Labour Market is set up here

Newbie20 · 16-07-2020 11:55am

From what I have seen, a lot of solicitors are telling their clients to bid approx €20,000 lower after they have gone sale agreed (well people that were gone sale agreed prior to COVID kicking off)
I know of 3 people that were told this by solicitors.
Person 1 came back to the vendor and said they were offering 20 grand less and they were told to feck off and the sale fell through
Person 2 did the same but they were told no and that if they still offered the original it was theirs so they did and the sale is going through
Person 3 decided not to take the solicitors advice and left it as it was and they are in the house and all now.

I think situations like Person 1 that I mentioned above are contributing to some of the houses being taken off the market.

Cantstandsya · 16-07-2020 12:34pm

Newbie20 wrote: »

From what I have seen, a lot of solicitors are telling their clients to bid approx €20,000 lower after they have gone sale agreed (well people that were gone sale agreed prior to COVID kicking off)
I know of 3 people that were told this by solicitors.
Person 1 came back to the vendor and said they were offering 20 grand less and they were told to feck off and the sale fell through
Person 2 did the same but they were told no and that if they still offered the original it was theirs so they did and the sale is going through
Person 3 decided not to take the solicitors advice and left it as it was and they are in the house and all now.

I think situations like Person 1 that I mentioned above are contributing to some of the houses being taken off the market.

Houses will be taken off the market under the assumption/hope that things will be back to normal in a couple of months.

They won't be. Cases are going back up and exit from lockdown is being slowed down/reversed. There is no end in sight to this so if people need to sell or want to move then they're gonna have to accept reality.

I completely understand people being reluctant to accept their asset is now worth significantly less but that's how it is. Where I am looking I have enquired about numerous houses and 80% of them have received zero bids whatsoever, never mind low ball bids.

Yeah, some areas in Dublin or Cork might be holding out as demand there remains high but the writing is on the wall.

fliball123 · 16-07-2020 12:38pm

Cantstandsya wrote: »

Houses will be taken off the market under the assumption/hope that things will be back to normal in a couple of months.

They won't be. Cases are going back up and exit from lockdown is being slowed down/reversed. There is no end in sight to this so if people need to sell or want to move then they're gonna have to accept reality.

I completely understand people being reluctant to accept their asset is now worth significantly less but that's how it is. Where I am looking I have enquired about numerous houses and 80% of them have received zero bids whatsoever, never mind low ball bids.

Yeah, some areas in Dublin or Cork might be holding out as demand there remains high but the writing is on the wall.

There is still a chronic under supply of property, there is still strong demand in the REITS alone for new builds once these 2 factors are at play prices are not going down

Graham · 16-07-2020 12:38pm

Cantstandsya wrote: »

I completely understand people being reluctant to accept their asset is now worth significantly less but that's how it is.

But it's not.

At least not right now.

cnocbui · 16-07-2020 12:41pm

Cantstandsya wrote: »

Houses will be taken off the market under the assumption/hope that things will be back to normal in a couple of months.

They won't be. Cases are going back up and exit from lockdown is being slowed down/reversed. There is no end in sight to this so if people need to sell or want to move then they're gonna have to accept reality.

I completely understand people being reluctant to accept their asset is now worth significantly less but that's how it is. Where I am looking I have enquired about numerous houses and 80% of them have received zero bids whatsoever, never mind low ball bids.

Yeah, some areas in Dublin or Cork might be holding out as demand there remains high but the writing is on the wall.

And what area is it you are looking at where there is no interest?

Cantstandsya · 16-07-2020 12:44pm

Graham wrote: »

But it's not.

At least not right now.

Bank valuers and solicitors disagree with you.

Cantstandsya · 16-07-2020 12:47pm

fliball123 wrote: »

There is still a chronic under supply of property, there is still strong demand in the REITS alone for new builds once these 2 factors are at play prices are not going down

Do REITs buy many second hand houses outside of Dublin/Cork?

Supply is of secondary importance to credit. Oversupply didn't dent prices during the boom because of easy credit and under supply won't keep them up now because of less credit.

awec · 16-07-2020 12:49pm

Cantstandsya wrote: »

Bank valuers and solicitors disagree with you.

Solicitors are not an authority or experts on the value of houses.

SozBbz · 16-07-2020 12:50pm

Cantstandsya wrote: »

Bank valuers and solicitors disagree with you.

I didnt know that bank valuers (also known as estate agents) and solicitors have a common spokesperson.

Cal4567 · 16-07-2020 12:51pm

Newbie20 wrote: »

From what I have seen, a lot of solicitors are telling their clients to bid approx €20,000 lower after they have gone sale agreed (well people that were gone sale agreed prior to COVID kicking off)
I know of 3 people that were told this by solicitors.
Person 1 came back to the vendor and said they were offering 20 grand less and they were told to feck off and the sale fell through
Person 2 did the same but they were told no and that if they still offered the original it was theirs so they did and the sale is going through
Person 3 decided not to take the solicitors advice and left it as it was and they are in the house and all now.

I think situations like Person 1 that I mentioned above are contributing to some of the houses being taken off the market.

Solicitors acting as if they are wheeler dealers. I'd just prefer if they can confirm it has clear Title, you know, their actual job.

Brianmwalker · 16-07-2020 12:52pm

awec wrote: »

Solicitors are not an authority or experts on the value of houses.

Close the thread so cause no one here is either

awec · 16-07-2020 12:53pm

Brianmwalker wrote: »

Close the thread so cause no one here is either

Correct, nobody here is either. Your solicitor is no more of an expert on house valuations than some random, nameless person on here.

Cyrus · 16-07-2020 12:54pm

Brianmwalker wrote: »

Close the thread so cause no one here is either

the only information that is relevant is what the bloody things are selling for,

if there is a wholesale decrease in selling prices itll show up pretty soon,

how about we just skip the nonsense anecdotes

Cantstandsya · 16-07-2020 12:55pm

awec wrote: »

Solicitors are not an authority or experts on the value of houses.

I've been reading this thread enough to know that nobody is an authority on anything unless they agree with what people already think.

Graham · 16-07-2020 12:57pm

Cantstandsya wrote: »

Bank valuers and solicitors disagree with you.

Solicitors?? I'll take their opinion on property prices under advisement :pac:

You'd think if bank valuations were being pushed down we'd have dozens of posts about it.

Cyrus · 16-07-2020 1:03pm

Graham wrote: »

Solicitors?? I'll take their opinion on property prices under advisement :pac:

You'd think if bank valuations were being pushed down we'd have dozens of posts about it.

thomas byrne says hi :pac:

Cantstandsya · 16-07-2020 1:04pm

Graham wrote: »

Solicitors?? I'll take their opinion on property prices under advisement :pac:

You'd think if bank valuations were being pushed down we'd have dozens of posts about it.

I guess all those newspaper articles reporting lower bank valuations back in May and the Daft report showing reduced asking prices in June were all lying then.

Graham · 16-07-2020 1:04pm

Cyrus wrote: »

thomas byrne says hi :pac:

I asked him. He denied it.

Graham · 16-07-2020 1:10pm

Cantstandsya wrote: »

I guess all those newspaper articles reporting lower bank valuations back in May and the Daft report showing reduced asking prices in June were all lying then.

Ahh you mean bank valuations from when the economy was completely closed and nothing was happening with anything, anywhere?

Bass Reeves · 16-07-2020 1:11pm

Newbie20 wrote: »

From what I have seen, a lot of solicitors are telling their clients to bid approx €20,000 lower after they have gone sale agreed (well people that were gone sale agreed prior to COVID kicking off)
I know of 3 people that were told this by solicitors.
Person 1 came back to the vendor and said they were offering 20 grand less and they were told to feck off and the sale fell through
Person 2 did the same but they were told no and that if they still offered the original it was theirs so they did and the sale is going through
Person 3 decided not to take the solicitors advice and left it as it was and they are in the house and all now.

I think situations like Person 1 that I mentioned above are contributing to some of the houses being taken off the market.

If I was selling and a buyer tried this stunt I go back to under bidder. As well if he failed to honour contract I see it as a valid reason to hold onto deposit.

Finally If I had to sell for 20k less I give an underbidder the option rather than a lad that tried that stunt at closing

fliball123 · 16-07-2020 1:13pm

Cantstandsya wrote: »

Do REITs buy many second hand houses outside of Dublin/Cork?

Supply is of secondary importance to credit. Oversupply didn't dent prices during the boom because of easy credit and under supply won't keep them up now because of less credit.

No but they are buying a hell of a lot of new properties coming on stream, I seen a figure of 85% of new apartments are being bought up by REITS so in case you have not been here for the last number of years there is a chronic shortage of properties and even more so for properties in good condition and in high demand areas. Easy credit has not been happening for the last decade. The banks have had manners put on them by the borrowing/savings ratios along with other measures.

Regardless of whats going on demand vs supply = price virus or no virus. Demand is still there with a high % of new builds being snapped up off the plans by REITS due to the high yield in rents so the supply side is not going anywhere anytime soon. Demand may dissipate if banks stop lending but it has to come right down to meet the shortage of supply. You add in the fact that is very hard nearly impossible for a bank to take the family home when a person is in financial difficulty further suppressing supply.

Its going to be interesting to see how this plays out.

Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

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