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Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : Spring/Summer 2020
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To me anyway a complex set up and plenty of weather interactions to study over the coming days, always uncertainty when it comes to thunderstorms more so in Ireland but interesting and fun to try and predict and go through the fine details, only way to improve on giving a go at forecasting and gaining a better understanding of the mechanics of meteorology.
High temperatures, high theta E readings ,advancing plume of high theta W airmass coming out of the continent and from the Azores, the main interest being around Thursday evening into Friday. Different models showing different outcomes and potential. Question of timing to see how quickly the approaching LP from the Atlantic makes its way towards us and again models differ wildly at this stage on track and timing. Will the approaching fronts interact with the warmer air on Friday and Saturday ??
Looks like there could be huge thunderstorms.....but where. Over the UK, Over the UK and running up the Irish sea, clipping Ireland in the SE and E ???? Or more of an outside chance of running up over Ireland.
Models are changing from run to run but only takes a small shift W to give potential of big thunderstorm activity up along the SE , E and NE, just my opinion of course.
Some projected DPs for 02.00 Fri especially over Wales and the UK
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Meteorite58 wrote: »With the utmost most respect to others opinions, this mornings ECM has shifted the potential well in over the SE, E and NE and in fact over the Eastern half of Ireland, would think increasing the thunderstorm potential a lot for later Thurs into Fri.
Early Friday morning alright it is showing some potential for elevated lightning along the east as there is just a hint of a southeasterly flow over the Irish Sea setting up a convergence zone along Leinster, though these lightning charts have been wrong in the recent past. The ECM soundings for then are not in range yet but the last sounding for 11 pm on Thursday in the area of max MUCAPE just off the Wexford coast shows around 900 J/kg with moderate shear. Wicklow mountains might play ball. It's all to play for.
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This was the position the wave feature (badly highlighted just north of the Azores) last night that will potentially trigger those storms in the east Thursday night as it runs up against drier, warmer air to the east:
Currently in a region that will help boost moisture content within it to very high levels, and here is the UK Met forecast for late Thursday night as it stands:
Edit, and some charts from July 1985 as a comparison (taken from that dedicated thread)
New Moon
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Heighway61 wrote: »BBC have things a lot further west.
13 hours of storms for Sligo, Thurs/Fri.
Certainly wouldnt be at all surprised to see major rainfall from this. It's like this event is going to finally end any talk of drought and introduce cool and unsettled weather for at least 10 days.0 -
This was the position the wave feature (badly highlighted just north of the Azores) last night that will potentially trigger those storms in the east Thursday night as it runs up against drier, warmer air to the east:
Currently in a region that will help boost moisture content within it to very high levels, and here is the UK Met forecast for late Thursday night as it stands:
You'd think, but in actual fact the low-level air for early Friday will have come from a source just south of Ireland (red). The 850-hPa air from a source in western Germany (blue track below). The upper air will come from the Azores region alright (green).
Below is the current sounding for that area (Karlsruhe). The closest actual radiosonde sounding for nearby Stuttgart shows a similar profile, though a much stronger hydrolapse at 800 hPa.
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Some of the 12z medium range models showing the good risk for the east an NW of the country for MCS potential. Still won't be surprised to see this shift east on future runs like has done many times before. Also mention by Gaoth Laidir and others the bias for moisture being a bit much on GFS based models.
Strong DLS to matain the high base storms and structure during the night.
Reasonable amounts of ML cape but i've seen better for night time MCS such as June 2018's setup
Whichever way it goes its still good model watching all the same. :cool:0 -
Some of the 12z medium range models showing the good risk for the east an NW of the country for MCS potential. Still won't be surprised to see this shift east on future runs like has done many times before. Also mention by Gaoth Laidir and others the bias for moisture being a bit much on GFS based models.
Strong DLS to matain the high base storms and structure during the night.
Reasonable amounts of ML cape but i've seen better for night time MCS such as June 2018's setup
Whichever way it goes its still good model watching all the same. :cool:
The june 2018 one was quite a cracker in the Arklow area,constant forked lightning ,no gaps,and continuously booming for hours0 -
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