FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Artane2002 · 18-12-2020 5:58pm

Fitzo123 wrote: »

To my untrained eye, that looks 2010 esque...

yes, it looks similar to 2010 but less extreme. still in FI though so it isn't likely to happen (but I'd say there's a greater than average chance of the chart being onto something)

Slashermcguirk · 18-12-2020 6:06pm

if those charts posted today still keep showing into next week, all composure will be lost ! The other day I was thinking back to December 2010 and I remember some of those threads on here literally having over 100 pages. It felt like there was about 4 or 5 posts per minute with the snow hammering down. 2010 truly was one for the eternal archive

Gonzo · 18-12-2020 6:19pm

GEM finally starting to get in line with something colder.

daydorunrun · 18-12-2020 6:22pm

Villain wrote: »

That'll do pig that'll do

Just a bit colder and we won't need those fridges for the Pfizer vaccine:D

bazlers · 18-12-2020 6:26pm

I dont know chaps but i cant see the heights in the Aantic holding. Im a bit concerned now.

pad199207 · 18-12-2020 6:41pm

Villain wrote: »

Can I please have one ticket for the Rollercoaster, I am getting on

The Cold Weather Rollercoaster is still off the tracks for me since Dec 2012, so I won’t be getting a ticket just yet.

NMB · 18-12-2020 6:43pm

Gonzo wrote: »

GEM finally starting to get in line with something colder.

Trend is our friend. Can’t wait to see the gladiator “hold” meme and of course the Ned Stark “Winter is coming”. I know we’ve a few days to be a bit more certain and we’ve all seen those beautiful charts melt away to nothing even as close as 2 days away but I still love the polar coaster ride.

John.Icy · 18-12-2020 6:43pm

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

if those charts posted today still keep showing into next week, all composure will be lost ! The other day I was thinking back to December 2010 and I remember some of those threads on here literally having over 100 pages. It felt like there was about 4 or 5 posts per minute with the snow hammering down. 2010 truly was one for the eternal archive

Page after page of Dubs discovering graupel.

Kermit.de.frog · 18-12-2020 8:01pm

Humberto Salazar · 18-12-2020 8:24pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Looks lovely but the 850 level Temps on this chart are no great shakes, cold but not bitterly so. The trend is good but I'm not on board yet.

Artane2002 · 18-12-2020 8:25pm

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

Looks lovely but the 850 level Temps on this chart are no great shakes, cold but not bitterly so. The trend is good but I'm not on board yet.

the cold uppers are on their way on that chart, would've been nice to see a day 11 chart! brilliant runs this evening, it'll be interesting to see MT's thoughts in his forecast tomorrow.

That aside, the ECM is also showing a risk of snow for parts of the country on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Reckless Abandonment · 18-12-2020 8:27pm

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

Looks lovely but the 850 level Temps on this chart are no great shakes, cold but not bitterly so. The trend is good but I'm not on board yet.

It would drag much colder air in very fast. If it happens obviously:)

nacho libre · 18-12-2020 8:27pm

It's great to see the GEM finally coming on board. This model was having none of it up until today. It seems the main models are starting to work from the same script. If these charts were within 48 hours, right now i'd be like this guy:

Billcarson · 18-12-2020 8:27pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Not too dissimilar to late dec 78 that chart.

Rebelbrowser · 18-12-2020 8:31pm

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

I knows its the CFS but it now shows cold weather from 18 to 25 December, with steamers up to and including Christmas day, followed by a repeat of March 2018 from Stephen's day onwards! See for example:-

Just the usual boring -14 uppers down here.....

In defence of the cfs, see my post above from 14 days ago.....

whelan2 · 18-12-2020 8:33pm

https://twitter.com/Arklowweather/status/1340012654115627009?s=19

nacho libre · 18-12-2020 8:44pm

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

In defence of the cfs, see my post above from 14 days ago.....

To be fair it does get it right sometimes. If i'm not mistaken, it also was right about the 2018 cold spell.

Gonzo · 18-12-2020 8:52pm

The CFS was suggesting this as far back as October on some of it's very extended range updates.

SleetAndSnow · 18-12-2020 8:53pm

Broken clock is right twice a day and all that

leahyl · 18-12-2020 9:38pm

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

if those charts posted today still keep showing into next week, all composure will be lost ! The other day I was thinking back to December 2010 and I remember some of those threads on here literally having over 100 pages. It felt like there was about 4 or 5 posts per minute with the snow hammering down. 2010 truly was one for the eternal archive

Anniversary yesterday of one of the best days of my life, it snowed down so heavy and I looked out my living room window and watched as cars got stranded driving up my road :-D watching that snow on the week before Christmas - heaven!

Rebelbrowser · 18-12-2020 9:43pm

leahyl wrote: »

Anniversary yesterday of one of the best days of my life, it snowed down so heavy and I looked out my living room window and watched as cars got stranded driving up my road :-D watching that snow on the week before Christmas - heaven!

Remember it well. We had friends over for dinner, had Xmas fm playing, and we drank ourselves silly watching snow out the window listening to Xmas songs.....

US2 · 19-12-2020 1:35am

I know it's a bit of fun for ye, but it's genuinely baffling how experienced weather enthusiasts get excited at these charts. I remember last winter snow or severe cold was two weeks away every almost every single run.

Has anyone noticed if there is a difference in the long range accuracy in summer and winter? I have zero weather forecasting knowledge but from these threads it feels it shows and gets wrong alot more cold in winter than heat in summer?

dacogawa · 19-12-2020 2:58am

US2 wrote: »

I know it's a bit of fun for ye, but it's genuinely baffling how experienced weather enthusiasts get excited at these charts. I remember last winter snow or severe cold was two weeks away every almost every single run.

Has anyone noticed if there is a difference in the long range accuracy in summer and winter? I have zero weather forecasting knowledge but from these threads it feels it shows and gets wrong alot more cold in winter than heat in summer?

Yes, some people get excited by the charts, it's a small sign. 1 chart in winter says "snow & cold" it's a sign depending on the chart. 2/3 charts start agreeing and more people get excited. The main charts fall into agreement in a smaller timeline (96 hours or nothing for me

) and we have a mass fall in of people in the weather forum asking "Will it snow in my back garden".

It still doesn't mean it is going to snow, certainly not on the first chart from the GEM 240 hours out (could happen though). There are certain social media pages in Ireland & their websites that push a click, like and share narrative. These statements from click bate websites should be approached like a meeting with Donald Trump or trying to take your mother-in-laws underwear off with your teeth. Just don't even think about it!

Humberto Salazar · 19-12-2020 8:27am

Not liking the ECM as much this morning. Are we cold lovers going to be heartbroken again?

lostweekend3 · 19-12-2020 8:36am

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

Not liking the ECM as much this morning. Are we cold lovers going to be heartbroken again?

Any post I see you from you is negative, do you ever have a positive thing to say? Plenty of twists and turns, and that was always to be expected. It’s called the rollercoaster for a reason.

bazlers · 19-12-2020 8:46am

It will be all down to the direction this Low takes coming off the states/canada. Hopefully MTC comments this morning on it.

Humberto Salazar · 19-12-2020 10:36am

lostweekend3 wrote: »

Any post I see you from you is negative, do you ever have a positive thing to say? Plenty of twists and turns, and that was always to be expected. It’s called the rollercoaster for a reason.

We got a decent cold slot once in twenty or fifty years. We're in the era of climate change. Cold weather is not as common as it used to be. The models are not terribly accurate after 120hrs. I've studied them for thirty years. So your darned right I'm negative. I'll be delighted if we get to 96 hrs out and decent synoptic. Until then, prepare for the worst and be happy if I'm wrong.

Reversal · 19-12-2020 10:59am

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

We got a decent cold slot once in twenty or fifty years. We're in the era of climate change. Cold weather is not as common as it used to be. The models are not terribly accurate after 120hrs. I've studied them for thirty years. So your darned right I'm negative. I'll be delighted if we get to 96 hrs out and decent synoptic. Until then, prepare for the worst and be happy if I'm wrong.

Depends what you class as decent. For most, there are 4 or 5 cold spells that would fall into decent territory in the last ten years even.

FEB 2009, Dec 09/Jan 2010, Nov/Dec 2010, March 2013, Feb/March 2018. So once in 50 years...

Would be worth coming up with some simple factors to quantify a "decent cold spell", like 850hpa temps of -8, and conducting an objective analysis of how much rarer "decent cold spells" have become in Ireland. I'm sure they have, but I think it's overdone sometimes, you'd swear 2010 or 2018 were annual events before 1990.

King of Spades · 19-12-2020 11:18am

I think a lot of people who grew up in the 70s and 80s have memories of regular snow falls and this might skew their thinking. With the odd exception, the nineties and naughties were really poor for snow. The last decade or so has been better (based mainly on the 5 events listed above) but then again the bar is fairly low.

Still looking likely for a hard frost at least on Christmas Day which will do nicely. Snow will be a bonus.

Captain Snow · 19-12-2020 11:46am

Some sort of Snowmageddon showing up across all runs and times. A cold christmas and New Year on the cards. If some of these runs were to verify would make 2010 look like a hail shower. Irish Sea Effect Snow would bury the East Coast of Ireland. We,ve got Northerlies, Easterlies....and North Easterlies.... North westerlies.....All cold.

At least we are not looking at a raging Atlantic for once.

nacho libre · 19-12-2020 12:57pm

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

Not liking the ECM as much this morning. Are we cold lovers going to be heartbroken again?

Yes, it looks like a west- based nao could be setting up on some models. I remember Elmer Booker complaining about this back in February 2018, but it was the west based nao that facilitated storm Emma to happen, but it also hastened the end of our cold spell. The bad news this time is that there is no entrenched cold as a starting base. I think what may end up happening is a halfway house solution between the three main models. Which could mean we end up with mixed wintry precipitation rather than powdery snow from the east or northeast. Anyway most of us have been here long enough to know not to get emotionally invested in eye candy charts till they are down to 48 hours.

Gonzo · 19-12-2020 2:16pm

Mod Note: far too much general chat going on in here and I've deleted several off topic comments that are not really related to current FI Charts. This thread is for technical discussion of charts beyond 120 hours only and any more off topic/general chat posts will be deleted unless they are referring to the latest charts.

Humberto Salazar · 19-12-2020 5:47pm

GFS latest rolling out. Evolution after Christmas is really interesting, complex low drifting over us, and could bring a wintry mix. I don't think its the winter wonderland scenario we all (mostly) want but it will be interesting I hope. Last few Christmases haven't really been. Need to see ECM later.

bnt · 19-12-2020 6:35pm

The GFS for 27-28 Dec shows some snow but rain too, and temperatures dropping below freezing overnights only. Not a repeat of March 2018 this time, I suspect.

icesnowfrost · 19-12-2020 6:44pm

26- 29 looks interesting as does most of the model runs from the 23rd. Looks like a prolonged cold spell is trying to set up. I’d say some may get snow and some won’t but i think the models are going to chop and change with different cold set ups for the next few days and keep us guessing.

Gonzo · 19-12-2020 7:28pm

It's clear to see there is a cool to cold pattern setting up just after Christmas but as of now there isn't enough support for real cold or a proper easterly. Latest GFS has some cold conditions but none of it is bitter cold suitable for powder snow and too much Atlantic influences.

I would like to see more runs like yesterday evenings ECM with several runs in a row building on that scene before gaining any confidence in this post Christmas cold spell. As of now we have the odd good run but they are isolated and still plenty of mild and high pressure runs contained within.

GEM has dropped the cold run from yesterday evening as well sending the cold into central Europe instead leaving us on the mild side with high pressure influences.

The models are going to keep us guessing for days to come but right now looks like we are along way from certain about decent cold weather just after Christmas.

ninebeanrows · 19-12-2020 7:56pm

Another EC run reluctant to rise heights around labrador and Greenland at t168hr

Kermit.de.frog · 19-12-2020 8:12pm

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

Another EC run reluctant to rise heights around labrador and Greenland at t168hr

It's close but for that spoiler cut off low coming out of Newfoundland. Narrow margins.

ECM1-168.GIF?19-0

Humberto Salazar · 19-12-2020 8:27pm

ECM FI not able to bring deep cold in, because it simply isn't there. People have a go at me being negative, but looking at the FI charts we cannot seriously be happy with them. Things can change, but I'm concerned about real cold pools, and the lack of then to tap into. Feel free to disagree based on what we see as of tonight.

nacho libre · 19-12-2020 8:44pm

The lack of a cold pool isn't a major problem. If you had a high in the right position/orientation the cold pool would come our way in time.
The problem is 9 times out of 10 a trough or area of lower pressure off Newfoundland will scupper things for us. This is why I was doubtful of the eye candy charts from the GFS where by a mid atlantic high managed to make it towards the tip of Greenland.

Villain · 19-12-2020 8:46pm

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

ECM FI not able to bring deep cold in, because it simply isn't there. People have a go at me being negative, but looking at the FI charts we cannot seriously be happy with them. Things can change, but I'm concerned about real cold pools, and the lack of then to tap into. Feel free to disagree based on what we see as of tonight.

I think it was more the ignoring 2010 and 2018

It’s a bit messy but certainly not usual Westerly muck and plenty of potential and then SSW coming too could give us more chances next year.

rooney30 · 20-12-2020 1:10am

Sounds like we are done ?

Rebelbrowser · 20-12-2020 1:18am

rooney30 wrote: »

Sounds like we are done ?

Not at all. The 18z gfs looks very interesting with snow on 27 and 30 Dec. Its still really up in the air. We are always up against it looking for snow, but by Irish standards the prospects for the next fortnight are considerably better than average.

US2 · 20-12-2020 1:55am

rooney30 wrote: »

Sounds like we are done ?

Correct. Look at the last few pages of this thread , everyday it's pushed out another day or 2. A dangling carrot. Funny how it's the most knowledgeable posters that fall for it the most

Humberto Salazar · 20-12-2020 9:21am

rooney30 wrote: »

Sounds like we are done ?

For severe wintry weather? Yes, probably. But certainly there is interest in the synoptics and how it pans out between the 26th and 30th.

sryanbruen · 20-12-2020 11:28am

Have made no comments on any of this so far in here because the stratosphere has been of far more interest in my opinion. I wanted to see trends before making a comment too.

There has been consistency for a seasonable spell at the very least with colder than average temperatures but if you're looking for bitter cold or crippling snow with deep drifts, then prepare to be disappointed. Looks to me like a series of polar maritime NW'lies, sometimes tilting more N, with heavily modified cold air. Some GFS runs have had more amplification courtesy of the Newfoundland low driving WAA northward allowing the mid-Atlantic ridge to build and become a blocking feature to the south of Greenland. This in turn would send a more significant residue of cold southward and more energy into Europe. ECM has never been interested in this with a more negatively tilted Atlantic ridge and less warm air being advected northwards.

Latest ECM and its ensembles show a less flat Atlantic ridge but still not showing the amplification that the GFS has been trending on and it looks like a northerly toppler affair although also looks like the kind of pattern that would be on a rewind with numerous attempts. There's also the outside risk of Arctic blocking sending a ridge southward into Scandinavia and link with the Russian high turning the winds into the east but there's little cold air to our east. Usually the ECM is the one with an over-amplification bias so it's a bit unusual to see the GFS like this - ECM usually loves its phantom easterlies.

Below average temperatures is the headline but from northwesterly or northerly winds and stay far away from anything suggestive of snowstorms or severe cold.

Villain · 20-12-2020 12:17pm

US2 wrote: »

Correct. Look at the last few pages of this thread , everyday it's pushed out another day or 2. A dangling carrot. Funny how it's the most knowledgeable posters that fall for it the most

It’s an Fi thread, it’s never over or done or certain in FI.

The fun is in the chase and with SSW on the chase is on.

Nabber · 20-12-2020 1:12pm

384hrs nice area of cold weather heading south.

gfs-0-378.png?6

Just some eye candy

lostweekend3 · 20-12-2020 1:38pm

Nabber wrote: »

384hrs nice area of cold weather heading south.
]

Nice to look at and I know it’s the FI thread but it would be nice to see these charts appear in the nearer timeframe. If it was for the 27th -29th Dec I’d start getting very excited!

Snowbiee21 · 20-12-2020 1:39pm

Nabber wrote: »

384hrs nice area of cold weather heading south.

Just some eye candy

All well and good, but the “eye candy” gets pushed out a day or two every day after a poor viewing of charts it seems.

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST