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Strong winds / Heavy Rain Tues 27 and Storm Diana Weds 28 Nov. 2018

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    #32
    refusetolose
    Registered Users Posts: 2,559 ✭✭✭refusetolose


    jirafa wrote: »
    Joint Cyclone Center
    ‏ @JointCyclone


    Atlantic #StormDiana Advisory Number 2
    Max Wind Gusts: 70mph
    Strength: WS
    MSLP: 988mb
    Diana a little stronger, expected to move across the eastward to east-northeastward over the western and central Atlantic...

    https://twitter.com/JointCyclone/status/1066853498875248641


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    #33
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,362 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    The ECM seems to have lost the plot, much weaker solution at least near Ireland, other models have not changed much from their earlier depictions, so not sure whether ECM has spotted something or suffering from bad data, storm meanwhile chugs along and is near 34N 52W at last hour.

    ICON 7km develops a secondary that approaches the south coast Thursday with violent winds depicted for the southeast.

    This feature is either muted or absent on other guidance.

    Almost all guidance takes a final swipe from the northwest in a last show of strength around Friday morning at latest.

    We are going to have our hands full with this mess. And I didn't even mention Tuesday.


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    #34
    jirafa
    Registered Users Posts: 2,365 ✭✭✭jirafa


    https://twitter.com/JointCyclone/status/1066937766506897408


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    #35
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Note that, despite the name, very official-looking logo and flashy graphics, the Joint Cyclone Center is nothing more than one private individual in Miami and has no links to any official forecasting service.


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    #36
    Graces7
    Registered Users Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Harry Palmr wrote: »
    Get your trampolines in folks.

    Out here, will get turf in by the several bags from the northern ocean facing stack, ditto coal buckets filled, and already had decided not to order a shopping delivery for Thursday...

    So thanks for affirming that utterly crucial decision ;)

    West Mayo, offshore island


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    #37
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Diana is already showing signs of a stingjet in the past few hours, still well out west of the Azores. See the narrowing and fading cloud signature just south of the centre on the satellite loop. This means it's probably reaching its peak and will start to fill and shift a little west of the model tracks over the next 24-36 hours. I'd expect to see that showing up in the 12Z runs.

    http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/RGB/AIRMASS/WESTATLANTIC/


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    #38
    Tabnabs
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 15,695 Mod ✭✭✭✭Tabnabs


    Status Yellow - Rainfall warning for Munster, Dublin, Carlow, Kilkenny, Wexford, Wicklow, Galway and Mayo

    Heavy rainfall later tonight and for a time on Tuesday. 20-30mm is expected to fall over a short period, leading to some surface flooding. Higher totals are expected in mountainous areas.

    Issued: Monday 26 November 2018 09:00

    Updated: Monday 26 November 2018 09:00

    Valid from Tuesday 27 November 2018 02:00 to Tuesday 27 November 2018 14:00
    Status: Green
    no warning
    Status Yellow - Wind warning for Munster, Dublin, Carlow, Kilkenny, Wexford, Wicklow, Donegal, Galway, Leitrim, Mayo and Sligo

    Southeasterly winds will strengthen tonight and during Tuesday. Mean speeds of 50-65km/hr with gusts from 90-100km/hr expected, possibly higher along exposed coasts.

    Issued: Monday 26 November 2018 09:00

    Updated: Monday 26 November 2018 09:00

    Valid from Tuesday 27 November 2018 03:00 to Tuesday 27 November 2018 15:00

    https://www.met.ie/warnings


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    #39
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,858 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    IMO Latest GFS ,WRF and ARPEGE all showing very strong winds on Weds, high end yellow if not orange in many areas and possibly stormy on coasts . ICON more like high end yellow touching orange level. ECM 0z showing lower wind speeds, probably more like yellow level.

    Evolving so changes to come. Wouldent be surprised to see the ECM show higher wind speeds on the next run .


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    #40
    GLaDOS
    Moderators, Regional East Moderators Posts: 23,208 Mod ✭✭✭✭GLaDOS


    I have my driving test in Dublin tomorrow :o . Is it likely to be bad around 11am-12pm? Looking at Met Eireann, seems like there will be a lot of rain.

    Cake, and grief counseling, will be available at the conclusion of the test



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    #41
    GoneHome
    Registered Users Posts: 1,783 ✭✭✭GoneHome


    GLaDOS wrote: »
    I have my driving test in Dublin tomorrow :o . Is it likely to be bad around 11am-12pm?

    And so it begins :rolleyes:


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    #42
    Widdensushi
    Registered Users Posts: 5,169 ✭✭✭Widdensushi


    GoneHome wrote: »
    And so it begins :rolleyes:
    It's ok, they are testing


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    #43
    Storm 10
    Registered Users Posts: 5,887 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    The UK Met Office have issued warnings

    A very unsettled spell of weather is expected, with strong winds, combined
    with widespread and in places heavy rain. Winds are expected to increase from
    the far southwest early on Wednesday, spreading northeast, with areas adjacent
    to the Irish Sea most exposed to the south to southeasterly wind. Wind gusts of
    60 mph are expected, with a few, more exposed, locations seeing 70 mph gusts.
    Winds will also turn northwesterly across Northern Ireland later, transferring
    the main focus to northern areas here. The strong winds will also bring some
    rough seas and large waves, with some coastal impacts possible.


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    #44
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    The core of the Diana's stingjet is very clear on these two ASCAT passes either side of 1 pm today. 60-65-knot vectors in there, and as ASCAT winds tend to under-report strong winds the actual speeds are likely to be higher than that.

    466955.png

    466956.png


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    #45
    jirafa
    Registered Users Posts: 2,365 ✭✭✭jirafa


    https://twitter.com/JointCyclone/status/1067066456796479489


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    #46
    typhoony
    Registered Users Posts: 1,490 ✭✭✭typhoony


    gfs still strengthing the storm, could be widespread orange if ecm falls in line


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    #47
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,362 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    The 12z GEM (which has had the most straightforward modelling throughout) continues to show Diana on a track that would sweep very strong southwest winds into western counties on Wednesday. It seems to be pulling in the weaker low to its northwest according to CMC analysis, and this may provide a second intensity cycle although I agree with GL on his comments about current energy for the storm out west of the Azores. This has a long way to go to lift north of 50N and is not supposed to get there until 18W. The 12z GFS, UKMO and Arpege seem to have a similar take on it. The ICON is a bit different on extending a trough from Diana, which would probably cause stronger winds to hit south and east. But ICON has lost about half the intensity of the following wave although still developing it more than any other model. I also checked the HIRLAM output and it seems generally in line although not overly intense looking.

    So I am waiting for the ECM to confirm that there actually is a Wednesday wind event then probably upgrade from watch to alert status.

    Tomorrow may be the stronger rainfall pulse so that already needs an alert, and an update will therefore definitely be posted in the forecast thread for that alone.


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    #48
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    EC has nasty little low tracking up west coast, tonight-tomorrow AM, could be towards Orange level in some western coastal counties if comes off like this.

    One to watch. Take care out there Graces

    ECU1-24.GIF?26-0


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    #49
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,362 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Verbatim that would be only 80-100 km/hr range, gradient is not extreme and it's a meso-scale low.

    Not to say that something different might not actually happen though.

    ECM looks rather like the ICON for Wednesday now, close enough to justify an alert now I think.


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    #50
    spookwoman
    Registered Users Posts: 9,922 ✭✭✭spookwoman


    Update from Met on Wind

    Status Yellow - Wind warning for Munster, Dublin, Carlow, Kilkenny, Wexford, Wicklow, Donegal, Galway, Leitrim, Mayo and Sligo
    Update. Southeasterly winds will strengthen tonight and during Tuesday morning. Mean speeds of 55-65 km/h with gusts from 90-110 km/h expected. Winds strongest along exposed coasts, where a few higher gusts are possible.

    Issued: Monday 26 November 2018 09:00

    Updated: Monday 26 November 2018 16:12

    Valid from Tuesday 27 November 2018 03:00 to Tuesday 27 November 2018 15:00


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    #51
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Gradient not to be sniffed at with the low off the west coast in the AM, but yes current run holds gusts in excess of 110kph largely offshore...has a core of 80kph meanspeeds around it.

    Also interesting secondary centre in the Irish Sea


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    #52
    spookwoman
    Registered Users Posts: 9,922 ✭✭✭spookwoman


    From 15.00 utc Diana looks interesting

    rMnVw1N.jpg


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    #53
    mickger844posts
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    ECM 12z an upgrade on wind speeds compared to the 0Z. Orange Level Warnings for Southern coastal counties going on this run.

    rPQz4FN.png


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    #54
    spookwoman
    Registered Users Posts: 9,922 ✭✭✭spookwoman


    includes 12.00, 13.00 and 18.00 utc

    qAlds5s.gif


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    #55
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Very squally along this front on Tuesday morning. AROME signalling some very intense cells with streaks of intense winds accompanying them.

    aromehd-52-32-0.png?26-17


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    #56
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Good idea of the very heavy rainfall amounts also- great addition the AROME on meteociel

    aromehd-25-26-0.png?26-16


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    #57
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,858 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Outer bands of rain moving inland and dissipating, temp has risen as the warmer air arrives with the warm front, now at 8C here near Tralee, getting windy from the SE.

    Heavier rain to arrive near Midnight and heaviest rain arriving in the SW early morning with the cold front passage and spreading up over the country.

    Cloud tops look good and cold and convective in nature and holding plenty of water .

    As8n690.png?1


    zcGgOsI.jpg

    ZExMGyL.png

    qD1m4tI.png

    Du4FD0Z.gif

    tempresult_jpg6.gif


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    #58
    sdanseo
    Registered Users Posts: 9,233 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    This feature west of Clare is new on me. Squall? Stingjet? Or just a computer anomaly in the way the map is drawn?

    arpegeuk-11-20-0.png?26-17


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    #59
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,858 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    sdanseo wrote: »
    This feature west of Clare is new on me. Squall? Stingjet? Or just a computer anomaly in the way the map is drawn?

    Is it the front line, very sharp edge with a sudden wind shift ?

    Would expect the probability of squall lines and heavy blustery bursts in the early hours and morning especially.


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    #60
    sdanseo
    Registered Users Posts: 9,233 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    Meteorite58 wrote: »
    Is it the front line, very sharp edge with a sudden wind shift ?

    Would expect the probability of squall lines and heavy blustery bursts in the early hours and morning especially.

    The series of small circular patches of lower windspeed I mean.


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    #61
    spookwoman
    Registered Users Posts: 9,922 ✭✭✭spookwoman


    this is from meteociel 3d http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_3d.php?arpege=1&mode=6&lat=57.7&lon=-9.84&ech=21&zoom=2.6
    DZ8ydGZ.png

    The 6am one looks more in line with the spots of low wind speed

    Mtl5NPb.png


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