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Lowest minimum temperature recording for Winter 2018/19

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Comments

  • #52
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,584 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    From what I see then, Wine Goddess with our highest forecast of -6.0 has the closest value to the current minimum for the winter, -5.8 which occurred on the 31st of January. The closest date forecast was 29th January (Rebelbrowser) closely followed by Danno with 3 Feb (who was technically too late but at that time range I'd give that a pass). Nobody guessed Dublin or even Casement as the location, perhaps the closest to the location was InstaSte who said Dunsany (although Oak Park, a common pick, is not much further is it?).

    The highest ranked combinations of temperature and date would appear to be a toss-up between Gaoth Laidir (-7.5, 11 Feb) who was 4th mildest and 6th closest, in a virtual tie with Meteorite58 (-7.6, 25 Jan) who was tied 5th mildest and 4th closest to the date. If we get a lower temperature in March it's not likely to be much lower, so that would just have the effect of moving GL closer to the date than Meteorite. Wine Goddess holds on to a lead in the temperature portion until -6.7 should there be a March cold spell (and I can recall a winter contest where that happened with a reading of about -7 prevailing over earlier readings, so would not rule it out entirely despite the current warmth). If it does get that cold, from -6.7 to -7.3 sryanbruen (-7.2) would be closest or at -7.3 tied with Konman (-7.4).


  • #53
    bazlers
    Registered Users Posts: 700 ✭✭✭bazlers


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    From what I see then, Wine Goddess with our highest forecast of -6.0 has the closest value to the current minimum for the winter, -5.8 which occurred on the 31st of January. The closest date forecast was 29th January (Rebelbrowser) closely followed by Danno with 3 Feb (who was technically too late but at that time range I'd give that a pass). Nobody guessed Dublin or even Casement as the location, perhaps the closest to the location was InstaSte who said Dunsany (although Oak Park, a common pick, is not much further is it?).

    The highest ranked combinations of temperature and date would appear to be a toss-up between Gaoth Laidir (-7.5, 11 Feb) who was 4th mildest and 6th closest, in a virtual tie with Meteorite58 (-7.6, 25 Jan) who was tied 5th mildest and 4th closest to the date. If we get a lower temperature in March it's not likely to be much lower, so that would just have the effect of moving GL closer to the date than Meteorite. Wine Goddess holds on to a lead in the temperature portion until -6.7 should there be a March cold spell (and I can recall a winter contest where that happened with a reading of about -7 prevailing over earlier readings, so would not rule it out entirely despite the current warmth). If it does get that cold, from -6.7 to -7.3 sryanbruen (-7.2) would be closest or at -7.3 tied with Konman (-7.4).

    In fairness the competition was for December, January, February. I think these results should be the out come.

    In fairness we can't predict if the winter as a whole will be mild or cold! Guessing the lowest temp, in a named place and date would be a fair achievement :-)


  • #54
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,584 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    We should never assume that this question will never be resolved, there's no telling what scientific advances may occur in the future, in fact I am rather surprised that our science lags so far behind all the others in that regard. Also I don't tend to see things quite as hopelessly since reasonably reliable long range forecasting is already a given in North America, we don't tend to take this approach to the state of the art, and I can't conceive of an atmospheric system in which one part could be accurately modelled and other parts could not.

    People are a bit down in the dumps about this winter not turning out cold and snowy as almost everyone who made a forecast thought might be the case, and it's just a spur to determined researchers to do better in the future. I've never been a quitter, only death will end the search.

    As to the contest being only the three winter months, that's your call. I don't remember reading that but maybe it was in the original post.


  • #55
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,584 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I mean, if you could go back to let's say 1850 and ask people, okay which of these three things will not happen by the year 2020:

    (a) men will land on the Moon

    (b) people will have devices in their homes that allow them to communicate with anyone anywhere, and do millions of arithmetic sums in less than one second

    (c) there will be accurate long-term weather forecasts.

    Likely some would say, "you're crazy on a and b, but we already have c, look at the berry bushes."

    :)


  • #56
    Wine Goddess
    Registered Users Posts: 551 ✭✭✭Wine Goddess


    Just read that I'm closest to the lowest temperature of the winter! You could knock me over with a feather, given the depth of knowledge others on this forum have! I'd be inclined to rule meself out on the basis of sheer guesswork LOL


  • #57
    bazlers
    Registered Users Posts: 700 ✭✭✭bazlers


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    We should never assume that this question will never be resolved, there's no telling what scientific advances may occur in the future, in fact I am rather surprised that our science lags so far behind all the others in that regard. Also I don't tend to see things quite as hopelessly since reasonably reliable long range forecasting is already a given in North America, we don't tend to take this approach to the state of the art, and I can't conceive of an atmospheric system in which one part could be accurately modelled and other parts could not.

    People are a bit down in the dumps about this winter not turning out cold and snowy as almost everyone who made a forecast thought might be the case, and it's just a spur to determined researchers to do better in the future. I've never been a quitter, only death will end the search.

    As to the contest being only the three winter months, that's your call. I don't remember reading that but maybe it was in the original post.

    Yep it's there in the first post. We can let it roll it was only for a bit of entertainment.
    I blame the jackdaws for the mild winter. No reason but it was either ye or the Holly berries that's for sure ; )


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