Sunday 23rd: Potential Storm Discussion

Joanna on the 6.1 news. Asked about the potential for the weekend. Said technically it's a larger depression, doesn't mean it's going to be worse. Monitoring over next 24-36 hours before any warnings issued or even named.
She seemed reluctant to give much away

Darwin wrote: »

The 12z ECMWF rolling out now and UKMO models show a very flabby looking low passing to the south of Ireland for Sunday, a complete non event in terms of wind. GFS showing a less severe event (for Ireland) than yesterdays charts. Still time for plenty of change between now and Sunday.

Unless we see the usual trend northwards of the depression I think Ireland will dodge this potential bullet.

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Pretty much gone from the ECMWF

That's 500hPa pressure, not MSLP.

MJohnston wrote: »

That's 500hPa pressure, not MSLP.

MSLP is on that chart, in white, with 500 hPa heights, not pressure!

So this is looking more like a rain event rather then a storm event in Ireland (opposed to UK) by current predictions?

Rodar08 wrote: »

Sorry to be annoying with the “my aunty Flo is wearing a hat tomorrow, will it blow away” nonsense BUT we’re flying Belfast to Bristol with our 2 first time flyers 2 and 4 yr olds and it’s looking like a storm on the way there AND on the way back?? Aahh ����

Flying Thur Bel to Bri 9:30pm
Return Sun Bri to Bel 4:30pm

Any fairly clear info at the min for me? Thanks guys

I reckon you're going to encounter some problems on the Bristol side of both those dates, it's hard to say for Sunday, but tomorrow evening at the time you're supposed to arrive looks very windy in Bristol.

Massive downgrade on 18Z GFS. Barely worth a mention, even for the UK, except maybe Cornwall with mean wind 60-70km/h.
The 65kt mean wind around the Belgian coast from the 12Z is now barely 45kt.

Kermit has flipped his luck this season after nailing all the snow threads!

The position of the jet will also have a big influence on the charts .

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Models can tend to do a windscreen-wiper pattern from run to run, so I wouldn't be so quick to rule it out (especially as you're quoting the God-Forsaken Shíte). With such a strong Jetstream set to continue for the next few days it's just a matter of where exactly more storms will form, not if. Focusing on details at this stage is pointless.

What's the (God. Forsaken.Shìte) ???

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Looking more unlikely now. We have a conducive jet stream which only has to be tapped on it's northern side to see a really rapid deepening of a system like this so it's not actually all that far from that at the moment.

You'd want to give it another 24 hours in my opinion. This sort of cyclogenesis can be volatile on the models in terms of track and intensity on a run to run basis. We are still four days out here as others have said.

Noob here caveat.

Watching the Ex Florence remnants on GFS for the last two weeks, first it was forecast hit us then went to Greenland then hit us again then Iceland then disappeared, then exploded in the mid Atlantic in the past few days, and now dissipated again, i say wait.

Accu weather have this on Florence

https://m.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/atlantic

GFS (gale force shockers) gets into streaks where it does really well and then other streaks where it struggles and keeps making significant track changes even within 72h. However, on a statistical basis, it is only marginally less accurate than the European model. For about ten years now, the GFS seems to make a habit of over-deepening lows at 5-6 days. The earlier looks we got for this event may be one of those cases, but the seas remain warmer than average so I am not totally buying into depressed jet scenarios.