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13-02-2021, 13:30   #5446
eagle eye
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Anyone else think the prices are completely wrong with Barber v Grasso? Very surprised Maycee is not favourite.
I'm with you on that, can only guess they feel the length she's been out is a significant factor.
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13-02-2021, 19:22   #5447
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My eagerly awaited big priced picks, all from Hills

Went with Maycee Barber at evns, but didn't go for by points as she was stopping girls in the past.

Thought Brian Kelleher was a good price at 19/10

Surprised Gillian Robertson was not fav, went for decision at 5/2

Dunno much about Rowe/Green, so went with Rowe at 11/10

Pollyanna Viana has lost to some terrible fighters, took Mallory Martin by oddsboosting decision at 11/10

Rodolfo Viera seems way too short, Anthony Hernandez at 3/1 seems value.

In main event just did Usman at 4/11.
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13-02-2021, 20:29   #5448
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is burns not too big at 9/4

they trained together for years, ought to be very close and burns will imo
be more aggressive....might mean he gets ko'd too but this for me will
be a similiar fight to colby usman
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13-02-2021, 22:03   #5449
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small bets on these mostly value bets singles/treble


viera by sub round 2 11/2 almost all of hernandez wins have been by sub so I'm hoping he manages to avoid being subbed in the first (rnd 1 11/10)

burns by ko or pts 15/4 don't seeing him subbing usman so it's one or the other

Belal M to win by ko 5/1 pts looks likely but I like the odds and I don't give lima any hope of winning this


small bets on burns pts 9/1
burns by ko in rounds 2 3 4 5 25s 33s 50s 80s bet365
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14-02-2021, 01:22   #5450
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Small bet (1pt) on burns by KO/Sub
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14-02-2021, 14:12   #5451
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Anyone else think the prices are completely wrong with Barber v Grasso?
Very surprised Maycee is not favourite.
Id stop a train.

Thought she would be too strong and her power would make up for any deficiencies in technique but Grasso was strong in the clinch and had much crisper striking.

Didn’t look like Barber had much of a gameplan to close the distance effectively without getting tagged. Work to be done but still young and has a lot of potential.
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20-02-2021, 11:50   #5452
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blaydes by ko at 5/6

Is this simply a gift at the odds?

We all know how this is going, Lewis for me can't win this fight unless he lands big very early but only ngannou has gotten blaydes outa there so it seems unlikely to me anyway.

So lewis has twice gone 4 rounds v hunt/Abdurakhimov
Blaydes will outwork those two and keepi a high pace from the start and I think Lewis will be exhuasted after 2 rounds probably spent on his back (or definitely)

I think blayes pts is a stretch and 10/3 which is poor enough, don't think lewis can go 5 against this guy at this pace.

Remember how easy cormier found it to get lewis to the mat...should be much the same here

I'll take a saver on sub at 12s also even if blaydes has never won by sub



Does anyone think Lewis can go the distance?
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20-02-2021, 13:35   #5453
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Great analysis as always, Mailburner. Blades by sub sounds appealing at the price, you could easily imagine an exhausted Lewis lying on the canvas.

Some more big priced picks, all from Hills:

Casey O'Neill on pts 5/4, her opponent is poor.
Jared Gordon 6/5
Drakker Klose has a good record so I think it's heart more than head i went for Luis Pena at 11/8, can't see that one landing really.
I thought Kunitskaya on pts at 7/2 was a good price, I doubt her opponent is the cold-blooded killer the odds suggest.

Bot quite value but with 3 heavyweight fights we might see some lads get starched, so some borderline value bets are Aspinell by KO at 4/5, he seems to have serious power and Arlovski's chin looked very suspect a year or 2 back, plus Father Time surely catching up with him.

Likewise with Olyenik, when you get to 43 your jaw is more likely to turn to glass, he seemed to get KO'ed easily recently, so took Daukaus by KO at 5/6

edit: 1 more to add, Charles Rosa by decision at 7/2

Last edited by tinpib; 20-02-2021 at 17:28.
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20-02-2021, 18:33   #5454
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Originally Posted by tinpib View Post

Bot quite value but with 3 heavyweight fights we might see some lads get starched, so some borderline value bets are Aspinell by KO at 4/5, he seems to have serious power and Arlovski's chin looked very suspect a year or 2 back, plus Father Time surely catching up with him.
I rarely back Arlovski against a striker like Aspinall and I often go for arlovski to get ko'd yet and usually lose money and since ngannou ko'd AA back in jan 2017 AA has been ko'd once in his next 11 fights going the distance with good strikers like sakai, harris, boser and tuivasa.

Everywhere I look it's Aspinall ko however
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21-02-2021, 00:04   #5455
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small bet on oleinik sub 11/4

double at around 14/1 with blaydes by ko round 2 or 3


Have my max bet now on blaydes by ko at 5/6+10/11
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27-02-2021, 08:54   #5456
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Big priced picks for tonight,

One such fight I had my eye on was the very cute but absolutely terrible Ashley Yoder taking on the gutsy Angela Hill. For some reason William Hill don't have prices, Hill is 1.25 and only 1.53 on pts on PP, damnit, still took the pts.

In the opening fight I thought both guys had roughly similar records, Jacoby wins on regional circuit but then loses in Bellator and in his earlier stint back at the dawn of time in UFC. His opponent Maxim Grishin missed weight by 4.5 pounds and is 6/4 and won by KO in his last UFC fight so that seems worth a punt to me.

Thought Pedro Munhoz might just edge his fight, happy to see him at 6/5

Bueno Silva at 2/1 to win on pts looks a nice price

In the co-main I thought Nikita Krylov was value at 5/2, no shame in losing a split to Teixera and also losing to Blachowicz. He also beat my fav hype train Johnny "Glass-Jaw" Walker in his last fight. His opponent has beaten Ion Cutelaba in his last fights who is probably my favourite guy to see getting knocked out. He always comes out trying to intimidate his opponent, looking ferocious, getting in their face as the fighters are announced, but he also has a glass jaw. Very satisfying.

In the main I thought Rosenstruik was good value, as we saw last week with Derek Lewis, one good punch can end a heavyweight fight. He is 19/10

Last edited by tinpib; 27-02-2021 at 09:04.
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28-02-2021, 00:39   #5457
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Really like Croom by stoppage at 11/4.
Munhoz decision 11/4
Silva decision 9/4
Ankalaev stoppage 4/5
And then I'm taking a gamble on Rosenstruik round 1 at 17/2.
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28-02-2021, 09:29   #5458
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Munhoz decision 11/4

Good call on this, never even crossed my mind to check. Only checked now and Rivera is an absolute decision machine, looks a no-brainer bet in hindsight.
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06-03-2021, 14:10   #5459
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Thread gone a bit quiet, all the shrewd punters probably wisely waiting to follow my big priced picks.....

Lots of them this week for some reason, all prices from PP:

Trevin Jones won his only UFC fight but was overturned due to the Devil's Lettuce, so 2.88 looks value.

Sean Brady is unbeaten but Jake Matthews at 2.75 is only 26 and with tons of UFC experience.

Kennedy Nzechukwu 2.88 lost to Paul Craig which isn't a great start, he has 2 UFC victories, this is only his opponents 4th ever fight and I can't help but think he is being rushed into UFC.

Neither lady are stone cold killers so Livinha Souza on pts on 4.33

Remember being a bit disappointed with Kai Kara France last time, his opponent Bontorin is 2.1

Thought Thiago Santos 2.38 was a great price, to my mind he won that split vs Jones, father time is catching up to him but was surprised to see him not fav

Drew Dober looks way too big at 4.0, perhaps a whiff of a hypetrain off his opponent.

Amanda Nunes is 1/12 is a big priced pick absolute joke having Anderson there, Nunes by Ko at 2.0 the play

Think Blachowicz is being overlooked, dude can KO almost anyone. Adesanya moving up against bigger guys so Blachowicz by KO at 4.5 is a great bet, it's prob the only way he wins it.\

edit: not a big priced pick but it took me a long time to get onto the Petr Yan train, think he wins tonight 1.8

Last edited by tinpib; 06-03-2021 at 14:14.
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06-03-2021, 21:36   #5460
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PP special:

Amanda Nunez & Izzy EVENS

Which is now leading me towards Polish Power
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